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meeting
19 May 2017 Institutional Equities
Neat and Clean demerger Company update
Sanjiv Goenka, Chairman of the RP-SG Group, announced the Price performance (%)
CMP Rs830
demerger of CESC, its flagship company. The business of the
company would be divided into four entities, which would be listed 12‐mth TP (Rs) 1200 (45%) 1M 3M 1Y
separately. The minority shareholding will remain same as that of Market cap (US$m) 2,028 Absolute (Rs) 16.0 13.5 81.3
CESC. Such segregation would eliminate conglomerate discount and Absolute (US$) 18.2 20.3 92.6
Enterprise value(US$m) 2,897
re-rate multiples in each of the businesses. Maintain BUY. Rel. to Sensex 11.8 5.8 62.4
Clean and neat structure: CESC today announced the corporate Bloomberg CESC IN
Cagr (%) 3 yrs 5 yrs
restructuring scheme, which aims to eliminate crossholdings and improve Sector Utilities EPS 2.5 7.4
transparency in disclosures. As per the scheme, the overall business of CESC
is divided into four different companies and each shareholder will get Shareholding pattern (%) Stock performance
proportionate shares in the newly created entities. The scheme does not lead RP‐Sanjiv Goenka Group 49.9 Vol('000, LHS) Price (Rs., RHS)
to dilution in minority shareholding, rather it improves the overall valuation FII 21.8 5,000 1,500
multiples of its core power generation and distribution business. Hence, we DII 20.0 4,000
view demerger positively. Fig 1 shows how the businesses are divided and Others 8.3 3,000
1,000
the details of share issuance. Post demerger, each entity will be listed
2,000
separately. The scheme is effective from 1st Oct 2017. 52Wk High/Low (Rs) 1002/531 500
1,000
Shares o/s (m) 133
Core business multiples should improve: Although the demerger does 0 0
Daily volume (US$ m) 10.2
not lead to earnings accretion, it should lead to significant improvement in
Jul‐15
Nov‐15
Jul‐16
Nov‐16
May‐15
Sep‐15
Jan‐16
Mar‐16
May‐16
Sep‐16
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
May‐17
Dividend yield FY17ii (%) 1.1
valuation multiples for the core power business. This is because under
earlier structure the power business has funded diversification initiatives, Free float (%) 50.1
which depressed valuation multiples despite CESC having one of the best Financial summary (Rs m)
operating matrices. Moreover, the business remains vertically integrated, Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY15A FY16A FY17ii FY18ii FY19ii
regulated, and has managed to generate free cash flow over the years. Revenues (Rs m) 110,666 121,240 139,030 169,391 181,184
Uniquely, while there are several vanilla listed generation companies in Ebitda margins (%) 17.5 27.1 22.4 22.4 22.2
India, the restructuring offers an opportunity for shareholders to own a Pre‐exceptional PAT (Rs m) 2,452 7,330 8,100 10,048 11,836
distribution entity in India. Considering growth opportunities such as Reported PAT (Rs m) 1,981 7,290 8,100 10,048 11,836
distribution franchising, the business will arguably command a premium 14.9 54.7 60.8 75.4 88.8
Reported EPS (Rs)
over the vanilla generation business. Outlook for each company created
Growth (%) (62.0) 268.0 11.1 24.1 17.8
under the restructuring remains upbeat with Spencer's retail achieving
PER (x) 55.8 15.2 13.7 11.0 9.3
Ebitda breakeven in FY17, and set to report PBT breakeven in FY18.
ROE (%) 3.7 11.1 11.2 13.0 13.8
Maintain BUY: In due course, we shall analyse in detail the balance sheet Net debt/equity (x) 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.4
of each of the business entities that will be listed. Meanwhile, we retain 12.9 7.3 7.9 6.5 6.0
EV/Ebitda (x)
overall consolidated earnings estimate for the entity, which are not relevant
Price/book (x) 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2
anymore from stock performance perspective. We see the fall in stock price
Source: Company, IIFL Research. Priced as on 18 May 2017 Note: Significant change in FY16
a good entry point, and envisage significant value creation over the next six
numbers are due to adoption of Ind‐AS accounting.
months. We think market cap of combined entities could go up 40-50% on
listing led by expansion in valuation multiples.
Harshvardhan Dole | harsh.dole@iiflcap.com Devesh Agarwal | devesh.agarwal@iiflcap.com |
91 22 4646 4660 91 22 4646 4647
Institutional Equities CESC – BUY
Source: Company, IIFL Research
Figure 2: CESC offers 40‐45% upside if we value each business separately
Description Rs m US$m Per share Comment
Distribution Business 60,000 923 450
Kolkata Distribution Valued at 12x PAT, on
5,000
PAT FY19
Generation Business 53,500 823 402
Valued at 10x PAT, on
Kolkata Assets PAT 1,900
FY19
Valued at 10x PAT, on
Haldia IPP PAT 2,300
FY19
Chandrapur IPP BV 11,500 Valued at BV
Retail Business 27,147 418 204
FY19 Sales 27,147 1x FY19 EV/sales
CESC Ventures 17,600 271 132
10x FY19 PAT, adj for
FSOL valuation 17,000
stake; hold co disc 25%
CESC Property 600 On FY19 PAT, valued at 6x
Valuation of CESC 158,247 2,435 1,188
CESC Current Market
110,390 1,698 829
Cap
% upside 43% 43%
Source: Company, IIFL Research Note: The per share calculation is based on existing equity capital
(133mn shares)
Background: CESC Limited is a flagship company of the Sanjiv Goenka RPG Group, incorporated in 1978. It is the sole distributor of power in Kolkata.
CESC’s business is organised across four main verticals: 1) power generation and distribution; 2) retail business; 3) real estate; and 4) IT business.
CESC’s power business generates and distributes 1.8GW power annually to 2.9m consumers in Kolkata and Howrah. Additionally, the company also
operates 600MW plant in Maharashtra. The company operates 1.1m sq ft retail area across India through its 100% subsidiary Spencer Retail. Further, it
also operates Quest, a high-end luxury mall in Kolkata with retail area of 0.4m sq. ft. It also owns a controlling stake (56%) in Firstsource Solution Ltd.
(FSOL), a leading global BPO company.
Management
Revenue break-up (%) - FY16 Consol Power capacity (GW) -
Name Designation
Others, 2.5 FY16
Sanjiv Goenka Chairman 0.7
2.0 0.6
Aniruddha Basu Managing Director
IT, 26.7 1.5
Rajarshi Banerjee CFO 0.6
2.3
1.0
0.5 1.1
Power, 0.0
57.1
Chandrapur
Haldia
Total
Standalone
Retail,
15.5
PE Chart EV/Ebitda
Assumptions
Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY15A FY16A FY17ii FY18ii FY19ii 12m fwd EV/EBITDA Avg +/‐ 1SD
12m fwd PE Avg +/‐ 1SD
Kolkata RoE (G) 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5%
KolkataRoE (D) 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 21.0 17.0 (x)
Spencer's Revenue/sq ft 1,305 1,451 1,475 1,500 1,525 (x)
18.0 15.0
Revenue growth in FSOL ‐4.0% 5.7% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 13.0
Source: Company data, IIFL Research 15.0
11.0
12.0
9.0
9.0 7.0
6.0 5.0
3.0
3.0
Apr‐07 Apr‐09 Apr‐11 Apr‐13 May‐15 May‐17
Apr‐07 Apr‐09 Apr‐11 Apr‐13 May‐15 May‐17
Financial summary
Income statement summary (Rs m) Balance sheet summary (Rs m)
Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY15A FY16A FY17ii FY18ii FY19ii Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY15A FY16A FY17ii FY18ii FY19ii
Revenues 110,666 121,240 139,030 169,391 181,184 Cash & cash equivalents 16,453 15,400 20,120 20,620 21,120
Ebitda 19,412 32,806 31,110 37,980 40,154 Inventories 6,625 6,970 8,450 11,335 13,339
Depreciation and amortisation (5,889) (7,660) (8,160) (8,290) (8,601) Receivables 17,066 14,130 15,600 20,925 24,627
Ebit 13,523 25,146 22,950 29,691 31,553 Other current assets 20,210 14,050 16,882 20,586 22,025
Non‐operating income 1,490 2,640 2,990 1,556 1,596 Creditors 39,457 41,388 37,700 45,972 49,186
Financial expense (9,565) (15,926) (14,970) (15,554) (15,412) Other current liabilities 4,105 3,040 3,680 3,864 4,057
PBT 5,448 11,860 10,970 15,692 17,736 Net current assets 16,792 6,122 19,672 23,630 27,869
Exceptionals (471) (40) ‐ ‐ ‐ Fixed assets 208,687 243,060 246,160 246,595 246,719
Reported PBT 4,977 11,820 10,970 15,692 17,736 Intangibles 0 0 0 0 0
Tax expense (1,992) (3,130) (3,810) (3,766) (4,098) Investments 735 6,040 7,040 7,040 7,040
PAT 2,985 8,690 7,160 11,926 13,638 Other long‐term assets 6,500 5,050 3,910 5,890 5,890
Minorities, Associates etc. (1,004) (1,400) 940 (1,878) (1,802) Total net assets 232,714 260,272 276,782 283,156 287,518
Attributable PAT 1,981 7,290 8,100 10,048 11,836 Borrowings 156,098 143,450 156,720 155,219 150,135
Other long‐term liabilities 16,326 45,270 46,870 46,870 46,870
Ratio analysis Shareholders’ equity 60,290 71,552 73,192 81,067 90,513
Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY15A FY16A FY17ii FY18ii FY19ii Total liabilities 232,714 260,272 276,782 283,156 287,518
Per share data (Rs)
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BUY - Absolute - Stock expected to give a positive return of over 20% over a 1-year horizon.
SELL - Absolute - Stock expected to fall by more than 10% over a 1-year horizon.
In addition, Add and Reduce recommendations are based on expected returns relative to a hurdle rate. Investment horizon for Add and Reduce recommendations is up to a year. We assume the current hurdle rate at
10%, this being the average return on a debt instrument available for investment.
Add - Stock expected to give a return of 0-10% over the hurdle rate, i.e. a positive return of 10%+.
Reduce - Stock expected to return less than the hurdle rate, i.e. return of less than 10%.
Distribution of Ratings: Out of 205 stocks rated in the IIFL coverage universe, 114 have BUY ratings, 7 have SELL ratings, 56 have ADD ratings and 28 have REDUCE ratings
Price Target: Unless otherwise stated in the text of this report, target prices in this report are based on either a discounted cash flow valuation or comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as
comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of this fundamental valuation is adjusted to reflect the analyst’s views on the likely course of investor sentiment. Whichever valuation method is used there is
a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe. Risk factors include unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the company’s products. Such
demand variations may result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in certain
industries, in regulations. Investment in overseas markets and instruments such as ADRs can result in increased risk from factors such as exchange rates, exchange controls, taxation, and political and social conditions.
This discussion of valuation methods and risk factors is not comprehensive – further information is available upon request.
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