Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

United States: Trump’s National
Security Strategy: More
Competition or Conflict?
Carlyle A. Thayer
December 22, 2017
Over the past few years ISIS as a non-state actor stole a lot of international
attention. While this is mentioned in the Trump Administration’s National Security
Strategy, the topic of global competition among states receives notable emphasis.
What is your assessment? Do you think the theme of competition among states –
maybe even a trend – should give rise to concerns the such competition could lead
to conflict?
ANSWER: It is my firm belief that when Donald Trump came into office he wanted to
reach a grand bargain with Russia over Syria. Trump wanted Putin to join the United
States in defeating ISIS. Trump was prepared to halt U.S. aid to so-called “moderate
forces” opposing the Assad regime and to concede Syria as a Russian sphere of
influence. Unfortunately for Trump Russian interference in the U.S. elections and
allegations of collusion between members of the transition team and Russia created
an unfavourable political climate. Trump’s ultimate goal was to improve relations
with Russia overall in part to gain some leverage over China. The U.S. Congress
imposed sanctions on Russia that President Trump cannot veto because the
congressional vote was so large (over the two-thirds majority required) Congress
could overturn the veto.
The new U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) represents the considered views of
Trump’s “beautiful generals” as he calls James Mattis, John Kelly and HR McMaster.
Russia and China are clearly identified as rivals of the U.S. who seek to undermine
American power globally. With Trump taking credit for the defeat of ISIS he is now
free to turn his attention to other issues. Beijing is the obvious target. Trump till take
aim at China for its predatory economic behavior. Russia is less egregious in Trump’s
view. I assess that we are in for a period of turbulence in U.S.-China relations but this
will be constrained by their desire to avoid a conflict.
What we are witnessing is the emergence of a tripolar balance between the United
States, China and Russia. China and Russia will form a common front on North Korea.
Russia will not take sides in US-China stoush over economic issues. Trump’s verbal
comments when he delivered the NSS were markedly different in tone from the text,
especially on Russia. What struck me was Trump’s assertion that eventually U.S.
rivals could be brought around to cooperate with the United States along with allies
and other partners. My bottom line is that there will be increased friction across the
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board between the United States and many countries on economic issues, especially
China, but that domestic preoccupations in 2018 will temper Trump’s adventurism.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “United States: Trump’s National Security

Strategy: More Competition or Conflict?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
December 22, 2017. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.