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Forecast Report
Surabaya
2nd Half 2013
Accelerating success.
Research &
Forecast Report
Surabaya | Office
2nd Half 2013
Accelerating success.
Contents
Supply 3
Performance 6
Occupancy 6
Base Rental Rates 6
Service Charge 7
2 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Office | Colliers International
Supply
Surabaya will see more high-rise buildings
Cumulative Office Supply in Surabaya
500,000
450,000
400,000
By Ferry Salanto 350,000
300,000
Associate Director | Research 250,000
Ferry.Salanto@colliers.com 200,000
150,000
3 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Office | Colliers International
Cumulative Office Space Supply Based on Marketing Size Comparison Between Existing and Future Office
Scheme Buildings by Number of Projects
500,000
450,000 > 30,000 sq
m
400,000
350,000
20,001 -
300,000 30,000 sq m
250,000
200,000 10,001 -
20,000 sq m
150,000
100,000
0 - 10,000
50,000 sq m
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Comparison of Projected Office Supply (in early In the future, Surabaya City will see more skyscrapers being built.
2013) vs Projects Under Construction (end of 2013) Among them is Pakuwon Group, which is finalizing the highest
towers in Surabaya in the mixed-use development in Tunjungan
City, known as Tunjungan Plaza V. Property components at
Tujungan Plaza V include a shopping centre, the Pakuwon Center
150,000
office building and a condominium. One tower comprising
several components will be 50 storeys high.
120,000
In the coming years, office development in Surabaya will not be
dominated by local developers only. National developers are
90,000 eyeing Surabaya given the growth of East Java province. Large
developers, like Agung Podomoro Land, are preparing to open
60,000 branch offices in Surabaya as the first step in opening an office
gallery to display their projects.
30,000
Future Office Building Distribution by Region
0 Based on Number
2014F 2015F 2016F
Projected Future Supply (early 2013) Projected Future Supply (end 2013)
Central
West Surabaya
Surabaya 25%
17%
4 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Office | Colliers International
Based on Size
East Surabaya
South 27%
Surabaya
39%
Central
Surabaya
15%
West
Surabaya
19%
2014
Graha Pena II A. Yani PT Graha Pena Jawa Pos (Jawa Post 12,000 Lease
Group)
MNC Tower Ade Irma Suryani MNC Land 7,000 Lease
2015
Skyline Office Tower Mayjen Sungkono PT Menara Bumi Sejahtera 38,821 Lease & Strata-title
2016
5 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Office | Colliers International
Performance New Commitment for Future Office Buildings
The pre-commitment absorption at the upcoming office
buildings continues to increase. Graha Pena developer will
Occupancy; above 90% for offices in the business build an 11-storey building, which will enter the market in 2014.
It continues to attract some new tenants. One of the tenant is
an advertising company (Infomedia), who took two floors. The
district upcoming 29-storey Skyline Towers in Jalan Mayjend Sungkono
As the business activities in Surabaya continue to grow, more has recorded a take-up rate of around 50%, and is scheduled to
office space is required. Users or tenants of shop houses (Ruko) be completed in 2015.
and office houses (Rukan) are beginning to encounter issues In some cases, an office building is built because of a landlord’s
like security and parking capacity which are relatively not found internal need for office space. While providing space for their
in the office building. In 2H 2013, the occupancy level rose own occupation, maximising plot ratio regulations of the land
to 86.2%, compared to 83.3% in 1H 2013 (a correction of the will allocate space for commercial use. Having themselves as the
previous report). Office buildings located in Central Surabaya anchor tenant will reduce the marketing efforts for offering the
still become the main contributor and continue to affect the remaining space. Some developers, like MNC Land and Samator,
overall occupancy figure in Surabaya. have been using this strategy by being the main anchor of the
The Surabaya office market witnessed more vacant space at building and selling the remaining space.
Wisma BII, in Jalan Pemuda. The owner of this office building h-o-h Performance of the Office Market
converted the function room into offices, which created vacant
space and drove the occupancy rate lower than the previous IDR 100,000
semester. Nevertheless, the occupancy rate at the end of 2013
was higher than that at the end of 2012, which was 83%. 2H 2013
IDR 90,000
Occupancy Rates Based on Area
1H 2013
Base Rental
IDR 80,000
100%
95%
90% IDR 70,000
85%
80% IDR 60,000
75%
70%
IDR 50,000
65% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
60% Occupancy
55%
50% Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Base Rental Rates; more than 10% increase
Central Surabaya South Surabaya East Surabaya
West Surabaya average In 2013, the asking base rental rates have significantly increased
by 11.7% compared to the previous semester to IDR82,889 psm /
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research month (a correction of the last report). The average asking rental
rate, as of the end of the year, is IDR92,593 psm / month, which
It is reported that a relocation from a building in the downtown
means that average rental rates rose by 12.5% in one year. The
area will occur sometime in the middle of 2014 when Bank
overall increase in the base rental rates is mainly from office
Mandiri, the anchor tenant, will move to their own building.
buildings located in Central Surabaya. Two office buildings that
Active tenants, like financial institutions, especially banks, still have been operating for more than 20 years adjusted their base
dominate the office transactions in Surabaya. An office building rental rates in 2H 2013. One office building reported a significant
in A. Yani, South Surabaya, will be fully occupied by a bank. Later, increase of 58% in one semester period by adjusting the pegged
the building will become the bank’s headquarters for the East rate by 25% to IDR10,000 per US dollar as well as adjusting the
Java region. New tenants in the trading, forwarding and finance rental rate itself. Due to the continued healthy performance
industries occupied most of the space in an office building in (90%) over the last five years and the periodic improvement of
Jalan Sudirman. the building’s quality, the owner confidently adjusted the base
rental rates in 2H 2013.
6 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Office | Colliers International
With demand projected to continue rising, an office building in The increasing average base rental rate is more due to the
A. Yani (Graha Pena) also adjusted their base rental rates in 2H weakening rupiah against the US dollar. In Surabaya, there are
2013 in line with the high quality of the building. still some office buildings that charge in US dollars. With the
continual weakening of the rupiah, the exchange rate dropped to
Range of Asking Base Rental Rates IDR12,000 in 2H 2013 from IDR9,600 per US dollar in early 2013.
Further these buildings apply current floating exchange rate
which made the occupancy cost seems higher when converted
East Surabaya into rupiah.
Service Charge
West Surabaya
The increase electricity tariffs and the minimum wage also
affected Surabaya office market especially for service charges.
South Surabaya Currently, the average service charges for office buildings in
Surabaya recorded at IDR57,984/sq m/month. This figure
climbed 27.6% than previous semester (h-o-h period).
Central Surabaya
Summary Performance
0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 period occupancy Base rental service charge
7 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Office | Colliers International
Research &
Forecast Report
Surabaya | Apartment
2nd Half 2013
Accelerating success.
Contents
Strata Title Apartments 3
Supply 3
Demand 5
Asking Price 6
Apartments for Lease 7
Supply 7
Average Asking Rental Rates 7
Occupancy 8
“The apartment market so far is East Surabaya region is now sharing a bigger portion as
apartment provider in Surabaya with two additional projects
still buoyant with investment sales during the second semester. Last semester, the East Surabaya
continuing through the second half represent 32% of the total market and in this period it grew to 39%
2013. This in turn has become the making the region become the main high-rise residential area.
East Surabaya is the preferred locations for students associated
driving factor for the rising apartment with university or any other institution.
prices in Surabaya within this period.
West Surabaya remained the location for most apartment
As almost all developers adjusted projects, particularly along Jalan HR Muhammad, Jalan Darmo
their selling prices, the average asking Boulevard, and Jalan Raya Darmo. Thus far, the West Surabaya
remained as the region with the most apartment unit. The
price of apartment in Surabaya rose growing residential estates is the push factor for apartment to
to IDR14.6 million/sq m, an increase of also grow within the region.
7.4% in the six months period since 1H
2013. ” The Distributions of Apartment Units in Surabaya
- Ferry Salanto
South
Surabaya
9%
East
Surabaya
39%
My Tower (3 towers) Kawasan Raya Rungkut Industri 1,200 PT Galaxy Wahyu Kencana
The City Square Jl. Raya Margorejo 160 PT Putra Mahakarya Sentosa
Grand Sungkono Lagoon (Venetian Tower) Jl. Abdul Wahab Siamin 500 PT Pembangunan Perumahan
Praxis Jl. Panglima Sudirman 293 PT Intiland
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Surabaya is a city with high economic growth. Quite a few major The East Surabaya apartment market will see a faster growth
corporations have headquarters in and around Surabaya. In than West Surabaya in term of number of apartment units.
line with all the prospective indicators, the Surabaya residential During 2014-2016, total supply in East Surabaya will account
market remained upbeat. There has been new-player developers for 11,178 units while the West will only have 8,046 units. This
that continued to introduce new apartment projects targeting at means that 55% of the upcoming supply within that period will
various segments. Between June – December 2013, at least four be contributed by East Surabaya. At the end of 2016, cumulative
brand-new projects were launched in Surabaya, bringing 2,153 supply of apartment unit in Surabaya will be led by East Surabaya
apartment units to the market. with a portion of 48%, followed by West Surabaya with 43%.
The aforementioned projects spreads throughout four regions, Two projects under construction including Educity Apartment
including East, Central, West, and South Surabaya and all (4 towers) and Bale Hinggil Apartment (2 towers) will contribute
adopted mixed use development concept. My Tower apartment 5,733 units which represent, 90% of 2013’s supply in East
project, consisting of three towers, is located within Rungkut Surabaya. Further, the construction of MERR (Middle East
Industrial Estate, East Surabaya. Praxis, which located in Central Ring Road) has enticed developers to build more apartments
Surabaya, is mixed use project comprising office, retail space and within the proximity of MERR. The MERR will connect southern
the apartment tower. Grand Sungkono Lagoon (Venetian Tower) part of Surabaya to northern part through East Surabaya. With
is part of Grand Sungkono Lagoon mixed use development, such infrastructure planning, East Surabaya is becoming more
comprising apartment, mall and office tower, and located in appealing area, not to mention that once MERR is completed,
West Surabaya. South Surabaya will have the additional supply it would be a lot easier to access the airport which is located in
from The City Square which will also have other components like Sidoarjo, a city next to southern part of Surabaya.
hotel and office space in one building.
Existing and Future Apartment Supply Distribution
Going forward,the strata-title apartment market will be flooded
by a massive volume of new supply over the next few years. 20,000
The market will receive 20,398 new apartment units until 2016,
from around 19 projects, which will be a record-high should all
16,000
projects completed on time.
South 8,000
Surabaya
3%
4,000
0
East Central West South
West Surabaya Surabaya Surabaya Surabaya
Surabaya East
39% Surabaya
Current Future
55%
Central
Surabaya
3%
40%
20%
0%
1H 2013 2H 2013
IDR 13,800,000
West Surabaya South Surabaya
IDR
IDR 13,600,000
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
13,626,210
IDR 13,400,000
The implementation of new mortgage regulation to help curb
IDR 13,200,000
excessive loan growth and ease property speculation i.e. LTV
(Loan to Value) which issued by the central bank (Bank Indonesia) IDR 13,000,000
since October this year, seems to lessen sales activity. However, 1H 2013 2H 2013
some big developers in Surabaya leave no stone unturned in
order to attract buyers. One the most active apartment developers Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
in Surabaya offers easy payment plans that allow buyers to take
immediate possession of their properties by making installment
without down payment in the period of 48 months. For payment
through bank loan, one leading developer in Surabaya offers a
scheme whereby buyers pay 50% down payment by installment
within 40 months during construction and when the apartment
unit is ready to be occupied, the remaining 50% is paid using
mortgage.
IDR 30,000,000
IDR 25,000,000
IDR 20,000,000
IDR 15,000,000
IDR 10,000,000
IDR 5,000,000
IDR 0
1H 2013 2H 2013
Apartments for In the future, we hardly see adequate supply of apartment for
lease. A single tower apartment project developed by MNC Land
Lease
comprising of 33-storey will developed in East Surabaya. This
apartment is strata-title cum serviced apartment and will be
operated by Oakwood International to manage the 144 serviced
apartment units. Further, this project will be the first project with
combining strata-title and serviced apartment units in Surabaya.
Supply Typically the existing serviced apartments are mostly attached to
hotel development.
With no new supply appeared during 2H 2013, cumulative
supply of apartment for lease in Surabaya remains unchanged
and is steady at 591 units, comprising seven serviced apartment Average Asking Rental Rates
and one non-serviced apartment projects. Average Asking Rental Rates
As seen in the graph, the majority of apartments for lease are IDR 200,000
concentrated In West Surabaya. Besides West Surabaya is the IDR 168,294
most developed area in Surabaya, its close proximity to central IDR 166,676
IDR 160,000
The Distribution of Apartment for Lease by Region
in Surabaya
IDR 120,000
South
East
Surabaya
Surabaya
5%
12% IDR 80,000
Central
Surabaya
13% IDR 40,000
IDR 0
1H 2013 2H 2013
West The average asking rental rates for serviced and non-serviced
Surabaya apartment in Surabaya experienced a slight improvement over
70% the second semester of 2013. The trigger for this period’s increase
was from Novotel Suites. Due to increasing level of inquiries,
the management became confident to adjust the rental rate
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
about one million rupiah per unit for one month lease period.
Accelerating success.
Contents
Supply 3
Performance 5
Asking Rental Rates 6
Concluding Thoughts 7
400,000
200,000 South
Surabaya
0 25%
Central
2014F Surabaya
2015F
2016F
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
30%
200,000
South 0
Surabaya
2014F
2015F
2016F
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
27% Central
Surabaya
33%
For Lease For Strata-Title
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
West
Surabaya
13%
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2015
Lippo Mal Gubeng Central Surabaya 6,000 For Lease Under Planning
Hampton Square East Surabaya 8,000 For Lease Under Planning
JX Mall South Surabaya 9,200 For Lease Under Planning
2016
Mall @Praxis Superblock Central Surabaya 22,750 For Lease Under Planning
Marvell City East Surabaya 15,000 For Lease Under Planning
Mall @A. Yani South Surabaya 30,000 For Lease Under Planning
Ciputra World 2 Central Surabaya 34,000 For Lease Under Planning
Supermall Pakuwon 2 West Surabaya 60,000 For Lease Under Planning
Maspion Square 2 South Surabaya 30,000 For Lease Under Planning
One Galaxy Mall East Surabaya 60,000 For Lease Under Planning
Puncak CBD Jajar West Surabaya 30,000 For Lease Under Planning
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
West Surabaya
South Surabaya
North Surabaya
East Surabaya
Central Surabaya
Giant
Carrefour Thus far the increase in the regional minimum wage and
in the basic electricity tariff as well inflation rate have not
been responded immediately by all retail center in Surabaya.
Notwithstanding, with mounting operational cost of retail
centers, it is projected that the average service charges will be
Hypermart adjusted in near time. Currently, the average service charge was
recorded at IDR66,556/sq m/month, a minor increase of 1.8%
over the same period of 2012.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
IDR 100,000 A number of shopping centers opt to maintain the current rental
tariff because they want to keep the occupancy level. During
2013, even the good performing shopping centers continued to
charge the same rental tariff. The overall rental cost adjustment
IDR 0
was only applied for operational component i.e. the services
2011 2012 2013 charge. Rental rates are expected to rise once the number of
visiting and buying shoppers increases.
Rental Rates Service Charges
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Accelerating success.
Contents
Supply 3
Demand 5
Performance 6
Average Occupancy Rates 6
Average Daily Room Rates 6
Conclusion 7
2 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Hotel | Colliers International
Surabaya is the second largest city after Jakarta, with a
population of over 3.1 million. It is a dynamic city and the centre
of commercial activity in eastern Indonesia. Surabaya has a more
commercial character and thus most of the hotels are business
hotels that provide easy accommodation for business travellers.
Supply
By Ferry Salanto
In the second semester of 2013 (2H 2013), three new hotels
Associate Director | Research officially began operations in Surabaya, including one three-star
Ferry.Salanto@colliers.com hotel and two four-star hotels.
Colliers International
is a leader in global real estate services, defined
by our spirit of enterprise. Through a culture of
service excellence and collaboration, we integrate
the resources of real estate specialists worldwide to
accelerate the success of our partners. We represent
property investors, developers and occupiers in local
and global markets. Our expertise spans all property
sectors–office, industrial, retail, residential, rural &
agribusiness, healthcare & retirement living, hotels &
leisure.
3 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Hotel | Colliers International
Hotel Distribution Cumulative Supply of 3-, 4- and 5-star Hotel Rooms
Based on Number of Rooms in Surabaya
5,000
5-star 4,000
26%
3-star
38% 3,000
2,000
1,000
0
4-star 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H 2H 2014P 2015P 2016P
36% 2013 2013
5-star
14%
3-star
4-star 55%
31%
4 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Hotel | Colliers International
New Hotel Supply Pipeline
hotel name location Class no. of rooms status
2014
2015
100,000 2.00
1.50
0 1.00
2013 YTD
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.50
0.00
2013 YTD
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
foreign domestic
5 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Hotel | Colliers International
Foreigners stayed longer when they are in Surabaya compared The AOR during the second half of 2013 was low during the
to domestic guests. The average length of stay (LOS) of foreign first period, ie, during October 2013 because of low season.
guests in 2013 was higher 11.3% than in 2012 i.e. at 2.73 days. During November until mid-December, occupancy was good,
Meanwhile, the average LOS of domestic guests dampened from mainly because government activity was intense during that
2012 to 1.65 days in 2013. period. Entering the third week of December, coorporate activity
softened but was replaced by visitors from outside Surabaya,
The hotel guest ratio in Surabaya is still dominated by domestic from other regencies of East Java Province or even from other
guests (85% : 15%). Again, the hotel guest profile in Surabaya areas outside of East Java Province. Guest profile during the year
is dominated by corporate guests mainly from government end is largely family for shopping purposes in Surabaya. Malls in
institutions Surabaya are the best in the eastern part of Indonesia. Further,
during the year end, malls in Surabaya actively hold interesting
Ratio of Hotel Guests (Foreign vs Domestic) events with good merchandise at the best prices. This has been
the magnet for shoppers coming from other cities or even from
100% Central Java. Besides shopping, these family type guests are also
transit guests flying to their main destination, ie, spending the
80% year end in Bali. Nevertheless, individual or family type guests
in Surabaya cannot lift the overall occupancy performance as
60% significantly as corporate guests because hotels in Surabaya are
business hotels and not leisure hotels.
20% 100%
0% 80%
2013 YTD
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
60%
40%
foreign domestic
Source: Tourism and Creative Department 20%
0%
2013 YTD
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Performance
3 star 4 star 5 star average
Average Occupancy Rates (AOR) Source: Tourism and Creative Department
6 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Hotel | Colliers International
IDR 800,000
Conclusion
IDR 700,000 The coming years will be challenging for hotel developers
because competition among hotels will be high not only due to
IDR 600,000 confirmed projection of new hotels during 2014 to 2015 but also
CHART “C” (OPTIONAL)
because currently there are more than 30 hotels on the waiting
IDR 500,000
list for permit approval (according to Chairman of Surabaya
IDR 400,000 • Width: 79mm
Hotel Association).
IDR 300,000 While some • are
Height: open
worrying about the political situation in 2014,
IDR 200,000
the hotel market in Surabaya still predicts an optimistic year.
The political parties’ activity is projected to become potential
IDR 100,000 demand for hotel rooms in Surabaya, which is perceived as a
safe city. On top of that, Meeting, Incentive, Convention and
IDR 0
Exhibition (MICE) activity will continue in Surabaya. Hotels
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 YTD
in Jakarta are better in terms of quality compared to hotels in
Jogyakarta; but Surabaya has many options for international
standard convention halls with lower rates compared to hotels
3-star 4-star 5-star average
in Jakarta.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Overall, the hotel market in Surabaya is anticipated to raise
room rates due to mounting operational costs like increasing
provincial minimum wages and the hike in the electricity tariff.
7 Research & Forecast Report | 2nd Half 2013 | Hotel | Colliers International
482 offices in Primary Authors:
Ferry Salanto
6 continents
United States: 140
Canada: 42
Latin America: 20
Asia Pacific: 195
EMEA: 85
104
million square meters
under management
13,500
professionals
and staff
colliers.com