Energy Efficiency

Buildings energy efficiency sessions done in partnership with:
sustainable
energy
partnerships
Energy Efficiency Training Week
Where to start:
Energy efficiency potential in buildings
Buildings: Session 2
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2015
2016
Energy Efficiency Training Week
Buildings: Program
1. Where to start: Understanding building energy use
2. Where to start: Energy efficiency potential in buildings
3. Toolkit: Building technologies for low energy buildings
4. Toolkit: Linking buildings energy efficiency policy to investments and finance
5. Toolkit: Building energy codes and standards
6. Toolkit: Building energy efficiency policies
7. What are the steps: Set targets and develop policies
8. Did it work: Evaluating the multiple benefits of energy efficiency in buildings
9. Did it work: Tracking progress with energy efficiency indicators
10. Energy Efficiency Quiz: Understanding energy efficiency in buildings
OECD/IEA 2016
Energy Efficiency Training Week (Buildings)
2. Where to start: Energy efficiency potential in buildings
Trainers: John Dulac and Adam Hinge

Purpose: To teach professionals in the emerging economies about
basic fundamentals of the energy efficiency potential in buildings.
This will include information on IEAs scenarios analysis modelling.
Scenario: You have been asked to create new policies for energy
efficient buildings. How do you determine where to start?
OECD/IEA 2016
Buildings Sector Energy Demand
Global buildings final energy consumption, 1990-2013

140 350 Coal
120 300 Oil
Commercial heat
100 250
Electricity
80 200
kWh/m2
EJ
Natural gas
60 150
Solar
40 100
Biofuels
20 50 Residential intensity
0 0 Non-residential
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 intensity
Global building energy intensities have improved since 1990, but

not enough to offset buildings sector growth.
Source: IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances, 2015 OECD/IEA 2016
Building Energy Outlook to 2050
Global buildings
Heating energy
Cooling demand
Water growth
Lighting to 2050
Cooking Appliances
Heating
Other Cooling
Floor areaWater Lighting
200 450
Cooking Appliances
Heating Other
Cooling Floor area
Water
180 200 400 450
160 Cooking Appliances Other
180 200 Heating 350 Cooling
400
140 Cooking Appliances
Heating
160 180 200 300 350
120 Cooking
140 160 250
Billion m2
180 200 300
100
EJ
120 Heating 140 Cooling 160 Water 200 Lighting

80 180 250
Billion m2
100 Cooking 120 Appliances
Heating Other
Cooling 150 Floor area
Water
140
EJ
60 200 160 450

200
80 100 Cooking 120 Appliances
Heating Other
Cooling
EJ
40 180 200 100

140 400
150
60 80 100 Cooking Appliances
Heating
160 50120
EJ
20 180 200 350
100
40 60 80 Cooking
0 140 160 180 0100
200
EJ
300
50
20 40
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
120 140 60 80
160 180 250
Billion m2
0 20 40 0
Historic100 120 6DS 140 60
160
EJ
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0 200
80 100 20 40
120 140
Global building energy consumption could increase by 50% to 2050 150
EJ
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Historic 6DS
60 80 20 0
120 100
EJ
6DS Historic 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
without
40 assertive
60
energy efficiency
80
action.
1000
100
EJ
Historic
1990
1995
2000
2005
20 40 60 50
80
Historic
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 02016 20 40 60 0 OECD/IEA 2016
0
0
Buildings Sector Energy Demand
Global buildings energy demand growth in 2050
Buildings Final Energy Demand in 2050 (PJ) Share of Buildings Energy Growth
Canada
(3.2) Eurasia
China
2013-2050
14
Africa
Europe 22 Japan
United
States 22 30 (5.1) 13%
Middle East Middle East

8%
Mexico 19 India Southeast
(1.3) Asia
15 Latin America 4% 54% Non-OECD Asia
Brazil Africa 21 6%
Other Latin (2.4) Eurasia
America (3.8)
13%
OECD 2%
Others
Over 85% of projected growth in building energy demand to 2050

is expected to occur outside the OECD.
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 OECD/IEA 2016
Global Energy Efficiency Potential
Energy efficiency potential by sector
80%+ of existing buildings efficiency potential remains untapped!

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 OECD/IEA 2016
Building Energy Savings Potential
Global buildings energy savings potential to 2050
200
6DS Other (services)
180 Appliances
Final Energy Demand (EJ)
Cooking
160 Lighting
Water heating
140 Space cooling
Space heating
120 2DS
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Buildings energy demand is cut by 1/3 in 2050 in the 2DS.
~60% of energy reductions coming from heating and cooling needs.
Building Emissions Pathways
Global emissions trajectories to 2050 (direct & indirect)

16 6DS
GtCO2
14
Indirect savings
12 (power sector)
Energy efficiency
10
8 Fuel switching
6
Renewables
4
2DS
2
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Energy efficiency accounts for 1/3 of emissions reductions in buildings

supporting decarbonisation of the power sector.
Getting It Right from the Start
Typical lifetimes of energy consuming buildings stock

and equipment
Source: IEA Buildings Code Policy Pathway 2013 OECD/IEA 2016
Building Envelope Efficiency
Global residential floor area growth and opportunities

400
Total Floor Area (billion m2)
350
300
250 New Stock (Compliant)

New Stock (Non-Compliant)
200
Refurbished Stock
150 Historic Stock
Total
100
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Assertive building codes for new buildings are critical.

Global residential floor area growth to 2050 (6DS)
400
350
300

200
Refurbished Stock
150 Historic Stock
Total
100
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
In a 6DS world, we would expect continued high levels of non-
compliance in construction and marginal retrofits of existing stock.
Global residential floor area growth to 2050 (2DS)
400
350
300

200
Refurbished Stock
150 Historic Stock
Total
100
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
In a 2DS world, far smaller levels of non-compliance and high levels of
deep retrofits will contribute to significant energy reductions.
Building Equipment Efficiency
Example: lighting efficiency potential.

What are the right levers to drive building energy savings?
0.08 Demand Efficiency

Energy Savings (6DS to 2DS) by Contribution (EJ)
0.07
0.06 Intensity Improvement

Technology Efficiency
0.05 Equipment Efficiency
Technology Switching
0.04
0.03 Technology Choice

0.02
0.01
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
OECD/IEA 2016
Demand efficiency: building design and occupant behaviour can
have considerable impact on energy consumption.
6
Average Lighting Demand Intensity (kWh/m2)
4
Historical
3
6DS
2DS
2
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: Sage Electrochromics OECD/IEA 2016
Technology efficiency: many (if not most) energy efficient building
technologies are already on the market. Additional gains for many
technologies are promising.
Source: US DOE 2012 OECD/IEA 2016
Technology choice: many (if not most) energy efficient building
technologies are already on the market. Need the right
policy/market signals to increase adoption
100%
Equipment Share (%)
90%
80%
70%
Halogen
60%
LED
50%
CFL
40%
Fluorescent
30%
20% Incandescent
10% Oil lamp

0%
2015
2025
2035
2045
2025
2035
2045
2025
2035
2045
6DS 4DS 2DS
Energy efficiency potential
Looking for answers

1. Why is it important to
know the potential?
2. What is energy efficiency
potential in buildings?
3. How big is it?
4. How to estimate it?
5. What are the challenges?
OECD/IEA 2016
(Scientist)
OECD/IEA 2016
Global energy efficiency potential
Potential to
reduce final
energy use for
space heating &
cooling through
energy
efficiency
Source: IPCC 2014 OECD/IEA 2016
Efficiency is not just technology
Occupant and Operator Behavior is critical: the impact of day to day
comfort and building operations decisions can have a very dramatic
impact on energy consumption
Source: Tianzhen Hong, Llawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2013 OECD/IEA 2016
George E.P. Box
( Statistician)
OECD/IEA 2016
Energy efficiency potential modelling
Building Energy Performance Scenarios
Free tool available for use globally from GBPN.

http://www.gbpn.org/databases-tools/mrv-tool/scenario-data-analysis
Source: GBPN
OECD/IEA 2016
Example: 3CSEP-HEB & GBPN-BEPS model
Models: 3CSEP High Efficiency Buildings model & GBPN Building Energy
Performance Scenarios model
Considers buildings as complete systems rather than sums of components
performance-based approach
Recognizes that
State-of-the-art building energy performance can be achieved through a
broad variety of designs and component combinations
Systemic gains are important when buildings are optimised to very high
energy performance, not typically captured by modelling buildings by
components
Best practice are selected from the energy performance and investment
costs perspective
Assumes that
Existing best practices become the standard (both in new construction AND
renovation) after a certain transition time #EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency OECD/IEA 2016
Example: Modeling logic for 3CSEP-HEB
Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency

OECD/IEA 2016
Example: Uses of 3CSEP-HEB
2007 - 2011 2011 - 2012 2012 - 2014
Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency

OECD/IEA 2016
Where do I start?
A few key questions

Do you have data on energy
consumed in residential buildings
vs. non-residential?
Do you have data on the overall
floor area stock, and annual new
additions to the stock?
What portion of building energy is
used in urban areas vs rural
areas?
OECD/IEA 2016
Building Stock Accounting
Example building stock accounting, Turin (Italy)
16 480
14 420
12 360
10 300 Building
Million m2
kWh/m2
stock
8 240
6 180 Heating
intensity
4 120
2 60
0 0
1960-80
2005-14
1960-80
2005-14
1960-80
2005-14
1960-80
2005-14
Pre-1960
Pre-1960
Pre-1960
Pre-1960
1980-2005
1980-2005
1980-2005
Multifamily high-rise Multifamily low-rise 1980-2005

Single family attached Single family detached
What is your building stock, and
how is it changing?
Key questions
Where is the most energy
consumption? Residential?
Urban?
What sectors are growing most
rapidly?
Do you see big increases in
certain end-uses (air-
conditioning)?
OECD/IEA 2016
Data Quality
For good policy making, valid data is

critical:
1. How good is energy consumption data?
2. Building stock and floor area data?
3. End-use estimates?
OECD/IEA 2016
What portion of total (final) energy use is
consumed in buildings?
Buildings Share of Final Energy Consumption, 2013
Other,
6% Coal, 4%
Oil, 10%
Transport, 27%
Natural Gas, 21%
Buildings, 30% Electricity, 29%
Commercial Heat, 5%
Industry, 37%
Renewables, 31%
Source: IEA World Energy Balances and Statistics, 2015 OECD/IEA 2016
Of total building energy consumption, what
portion residential? Non-residential?
Residential & Non-Residential Building Energy Use, 2013
Residential, 89 EJ Non-Residential, 35 EJ
11% 22%
30%
12%
33%
12%
44%
2%
20% 10%
4%
Space heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Cooking Appliances Other
What fraction of buildings in your country
are in urban areas? Rural areas?
Urban vs. Non-Urban Buildings Energy Demand
140
EJ
120
100
Non-Urban Buildings
80
Urban Non-Residential
60 Urban Residential
40
20
2013
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
Scenario
You have been asked to create new policies for
energy efficient buildings.
How do you determine where to start?
OECD/IEA 2016
Discussion
OECD/IEA 2015
2016

Energy Efficiency

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Buildings energy efficiency sessions done in partnership with:

Energy Efficiency Training Week

Trainers: John Dulac and Adam Hinge

Global buildings final energy consumption, 1990-2013

120 300 Oil

Global building energy intensities have improved since 1990, but

120 Heating 140 Cooling 160 Water 200 Lighting

60 200 160 450

40 180 200 100

6DS Historic 1990

Global buildings energy demand growth in 2050

Middle East Middle East

Over 85% of projected growth in building energy demand to 2050

Energy efficiency potential by sector

80%+ of existing buildings efficiency potential remains untapped!

Global emissions trajectories to 2050 (direct & indirect)

Energy efficiency accounts for 1/3 of emissions reductions in buildings

Typical lifetimes of energy consuming buildings stock

Global residential floor area growth and opportunities

250 New Stock (Compliant)

Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 OECD/IEA 2016

250 New Stock (Compliant)

250 New Stock (Compliant)

Example: lighting efficiency potential.

0.08 Demand Efficiency

0.06 Intensity Improvement

0.03 Technology Choice

10% Oil lamp

Looking for answers

Free tool available for use globally from GBPN.

Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency

2007 - 2011 2011 - 2012 2012 - 2014

Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency

A few key questions

Multifamily high-rise Multifamily low-rise 1980-2005

For good policy making, valid data is

Buildings, 30% Electricity, 29%

How do you determine where to start?

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