15.03.

2013

Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

http://www.kepner-tregoe.com/
Problem Solving and Decision Making

Kepner-Tregoe
The Rational Manager
Charles H. Benjamin B.
Kegner, Tregoe,
1922- 1927-2005

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Peter J. A. Reusch Peter J. A. Reusch

Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
While working for the RAND Corporation in the 1950s, Dr. Problem Solving and Decision Making according to
Charles Kepner and Dr. Benjamin Tregoe conducted Kepner and Tregoe consists of four distinct
research on breakdowns in decision making at Strategic processes, each designed to address a specific
Air Command. type of business situation
They discovered that successful decision making by US Air
Force officers had less to do with rank or career path than in
Situational Appraisal
the logical process an officer used to gather, organize, and
analyze information before taking action. Problem Analysis
Decision Analysis
Based on their initial research, they founded Kepner-Tregoe,
a company that continues to analyze and develop thinking Potential Problem Analysis
processes for critical business applications. .

http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepner-Tregoe
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

The brake makes noise when I turn right after leaving the motorway!
Cause: Corrosion on disc brake after rain.

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Ceiling light jitters from time to time. Air ventilation has been adapted wet air reaches light bulbs.

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Peter J. A. Reusch Peter J. A. Reusch

Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Situational Appraisal

Situational Appraisal
helps to evaluate the whole picture by
is used to separate, clarify, and prioritize concerns.
breaking issues down into workable pieces,
When confusion is mounting, the correct approach is
establishing priorities, and
unclear, or priorities overwhelm plans, Situation
selecting appropriate steps to resolve the issues. Appraisal is the tool of choice.

Situation Appraisal answers the question

Whats going on? http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm

http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm

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Peter J. A. Reusch Peter J. A. Reusch

Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Situational Appraisal Situational Appraisal

is a tool to use in order to:
The steps of Situation Appraisal help SCAN a
Examine an issue in greater depth complex circumstance:
Surface opinions or feelings about an
emotional/volatile issue See the Issues
Know what is on people's minds Clarify the Issues
Assess Priorities
Get started on an assignment or project
Name Next Steps
Address complex situations

http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-SA.htm http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-SA.htm

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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Problem Analysis Problem Analysis

is used to find the cause of a positive or negative When something unexpectedly goes wrong, people
deviation. typically want to take immediate action.

When people, machinery, systems, or processes are Doing something makes us feel better - maybe we
not performing as expected, Problem Analysis points will be able to fix the problem.
to the relevant information and leads the way to the
root cause.

http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-PA.htm

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Peter J. A. Reusch Peter J. A. Reusch

Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Problem Analysis
Problem Analysis
However, without knowing what caused the problem,
we are more likely to make changes that either don't
Problem Analysis helps us FIND the most likely
fix the problem or make it worse.
cause when something goes wrong:
Other times people focus more on who's at fault
Focus on the Problem
than on how to fix it.
Identify Is and Is Not
Narrow Possible Causes
Getting and using information effectively is difficult.
Determine True Cause

http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-PA.htm http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-PA.htm

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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Decision Analysis Decision Analysis

Many times a day, we are all faced with the need to
make decisions.
Sometimes those decisions are crucial, and
sometimes they are more routine.
Decision Analysis is designed to help us to look at
the purpose of our decision and carefully consider
what we want to accomplish before we ever
examine our options.
In choosing an option, we consider not only how well
it meets our objectives, but also what risks may be
involved.

http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-DA.htm http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-DA.htm

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Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
The steps of Decision Analysis help us SELECT an
appropriate choice: is used for making a choice.

State the Decision
Establish and Classify Criteria
List Options
Evaluate Options against Criteria
Consider Risks
Trust Your Work Pick a Winner!
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-DA.htm
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Decision Analysis helps when the path ahead is
uncertain, when there are too many choices, or the
risk of making the wrong choice is too high.
Decision Analysis clarifies the purpose and balances
risks and benefits to arrive at a solid and supported
choice.
http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Decision Analysis
provides a process for making a decision when the
choice among options is unclear, helping to examine
systematically the elements of any decision
criteria, options, and risks.
Decision Analysis answers the question
What course of action should we take?
Potential Problem Analysis
is used to protect actions or plans.
When a project simply must go well, risk is high, or
myriad things could go wrong, Potential Problem
Analysis reveals the driving factors and identifies
ways to lower risk.

http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-AnalyticProcess.htm http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm

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Peter J. A. Reusch Peter J. A. Reusch

Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Potential Problem Analysis Potential Problem Analysis

Actually making a decision is only the beginning. Potential Problem Analysis can help us to:

Once that choice is made, we begin the process of 1. Examine the potential consequences of our
living with it. decisions or actions;

The best decision-making process is rendered
useless if the implementation of that decision is
unsuccessful.
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-PPOA.htm
2. Implement a decision that has been made; and
3. Prepare for an upcoming event or change.
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-PPOA.htm

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Potential Problem Analysis Ask the right questions !

provides tools for risk reduction by helping to
What is ?
identify potential problems (opportunities) and When was/did ?
plan preventive (promoting) and
Who is/can/did ?
contingent (capitalizing) actions.
Where is/was/did ?
Potential Problem Analysis answers the question Why is/does ?
How is/can/did ?
What lies ahead?
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-AnalyticProcess.htm

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Peter J. A. Reusch Peter J. A. Reusch

Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Ask the right questions ! Ask the right questions !

You begin with a specific goal in mind

You get a different result Actual Actual
You find the deviation

Begin Goal Begin Goal

Point of Deviation
This is the Problem
You analyze and correct the deviation
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Ask the right questions ! Ask the right questions !

What is ? What is NOT ?

When was/did ? When was/did NOT ?
Who is/can/did ? Who is/can/did NOT ?
Where is/was/did ? Where is/was/did NOT ?
Why is/does ? Why is/does NOT ?
How is/can/did ? How is/can/did NOT ?

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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
What is known?
What was observed?
What are the constraints?
What is impotant?
What are the goals / objectives?
What can be expected?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
When did the problem occur?
When must the solution be implemented? When
did changes occur?
When were instruments calibrated?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Who can provide more information?
Who is the customer?
Who performed (each) task?
Who is source of information?
Who is affected by problem?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
What is NOT known?
What was NOT observed?
What are NOT constraints?
What is NOT important?
What are NOT goals?
What is NOT expected?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
When did the problem NOT occur?
When is the solution NOT needed?
When did changes NOT ocour?
When were instruments NOT calibrated?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Who can NOT provide information?
Who is NOT the customer?
Who did NOT perform (each) task?
Who is NOT source of information?
Who is NOT affected by the problem?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Where did the problem occur?
Where are input sources located?
Where is equipment located?
Where are products shipped?
Where is the customer located?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Why is the problem important?
Why does the solution work?
Why is there a problem?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
How is the problem related to other problems?
How can a task be performed?
How did the problem develop?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Where did the problem NOT occur?
Where are input sources NOT located?
Where is equipment NOT located?
Where are products NOT shipped?
Where is the customer NOT located?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Why is the problem NOT lmportant?
Why does the solution NOT work?
Why is there NOT a problem?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
How is the problem NOT related to other
problems?
How can a task NOT be performed?
How did the problem NOT develop?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Decision Making Decision Making

The Decision Making process into six logical steps: The Decision Making process into six logical steps:

1. State the Purpose 1. State the Purpose

2. Establish Objectives
3. Classify Objectives
4. Weigh the WANTs
5. Compare Alternatives
6. Choose the Best Course of Action

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Peter J. A. Reusch Peter J. A. Reusch

Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Decision Making Decision Making

The Decision Making process into six logical steps: The Decision Making process into six logical steps:

2. Establish Objectives 3. Classify Objectives

All objectives are defined in a list. Separate into MUSTs and WANTs.

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Peter J. A. Reusch Peter J. A. Reusch

Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe

Decision Making Decision Making

The Decision Making process into six logical steps: The Decision Making process into six logical steps:

4. Weigh the WANTs 5. Compare Alternatives

Rate importance of each WANT on a Assign and compare total scores for each alternative.
scale of 10 to 1 for each.

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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Decision Making
The Decision Making process into six logical steps:
6. Choose the Best Course of Action
Commit to the best choice by
verifying that each acceptable alternative
Meets all MUST requirements
and has maximal WANT score.
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Decision Making
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Decision Making
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Problem Solving and Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe
Decision-making process into six logical steps:
1. State the Purpose
2. Establish Objectives All objectives are defined in a list
3. Classify Objectives Separate into MUSTs and WANTs
4. Weigh the WANTs Rate importance of each WANT on a scale of
10 to 1
5. Compare Alternatives Assign and compare total scores for each
Alternative
6. Choose the Best Course of Action Commit to the best choice by
verifying that each acceptable alternative meets all MUST
requirements, and has maximal WANT score.
http://www.econ.state.or.us/ICsup1.pdf
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Decision Making
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Decision Making
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Decision Making

http://www.leanscm.com/courses/46/module3/sscm_01_backup/ktaMatrix.pdf
http://www.centrum.pucp.edu.pe/excelencia/ensayos/ISO%2027001%20y%20el%20Manejo%20de%20la%20Acci%C3%B3n%20Correctiva.pdf
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