2009 Society of Economic Geologists, Inc.

Economic Geology, v. 104, pp. 623633

Resources of Gold in Phanerozoic Epithermal Deposits

STEPHEN E. KESLER1, AND BRUCE H. WILKINSON2
1 Department of Geological Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1005
2 Department of Earth Sciences, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York 13244-1070

Abstract
We have estimated Earths endowment of gold in Phanerozoic epithermal deposits using a tectonic-diffusion
model, which simulates the emplacement of deposits at a shallow crustal depth and their subsequent vertical
tectonic migration in the crust. The calculation was calibrated by least-squares comparison of a calculated
age-frequency distribution to the age-frequency distribution for 448 epithermal deposits of Phanerozoic age.
Results indicate that ~17 percent of the epithermal deposits that formed through Phanerozoic time remain in
the crust today whereas ~83 percent have been removed by erosion. Assuming a similar age distribution for all
1,181 epithermal deposits in our compilation indicates that ~307,000 deposits formed throughout Phanerozoic
time, that ~63,000 of these remain in the crust, and that ~244,000 have been eroded. Grade and tonnage data
of gold in 757 epithermal deposits in the compilation have an arithmetic average of 34.7 t and yield an estimate
of 2.2 106 t of gold for epithermal deposits remaining in the crust.
Using the model-based vertical distribution of deposits remaining in the crust, we estimate that epithermal
deposits in the upper kilometer of the United States contain 2.9 104 t of gold. Adjusting for areas of out-
cropping volcanic rocks in each continent increases our estimate to 4.0 104 t. These estimates are similar to
the 1.7 104 t gold resource estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey using completely different methods.
Several comparisons based on these results provide insights into the efficiency of processes that form epi-
thermal deposits and the outlook for sustainability. For instance, all of the epithermal deposits that formed
through Phanerozoic time represent only about 0.03 percent of the gold in the crust. Only about 0.007 percent
of crustal gold remains in epithermal deposits; the rest has been eroded and recycled. This is consistent with
comparisons based on the flux of gold in the Taupo Volcanic Zone, which indicate that epithermal deposits trap
only 0.1 to 0.2 percent of the gold that moves through convergent margin hydrothermal systems. Epithermal
gold deposits that remain in the crust can supply current production from them for 1,400 to 5,000 years,
depending on success of exploration and depth of mining. Finally, we are consuming gold from epithermal
deposits about 17,000 times faster than Earth is replenishing the supply.

Introduction Principles of the Tectonic-Diffusion Model

EPITHERMAL DEPOSITS are the most common and widely dis-
tributed hydrothermal concentrations of gold near the sur-
face of Earths crust. Despite their abundance, or perhaps be-
cause of it, estimates of Earths epithermal gold endowment
have been limited to extrapolations of information from the
surface to depths of about a kilometer (U.S. Geological Sur-
vey, 1998; Frimmel, 2008). Here we estimate Earths epi-
thermal gold endowment using the tectonic-diffusion model
of Wilkinson and Kesler (2007), which is based on the age-
frequency distribution of these deposits (Fig. 1). This ap-
proach differs from previous efforts in providing an estimate
of global resources to greater depths in Earths crust.
Epithermal deposits contain various combinations of gold,
silver, arsenic, antimony, mercury, tellurium, and selenium, as
well as locally important amounts of copper, zinc, and lead
(Lindgren, 1933; Simmons et al., 2005). Although some epi-
thermal deposits are mined exclusively or largely for silver,
mercury, antimony and arsenic, most are exploited for their
contained gold. Even where another recovered element, es-
pecially silver, is more abundant than gold on an atomic basis,
gold is usually more important economically because of its
higher value. In this estimate of Earths epithermal gold re-
sources, we have tried to include all epithermal deposits in
which gold is either the main product or an economically im-
portant by-product.
Corresponding author: e-mail, skesler@umich.edu
0361-0128/09/3829/623-11
The tectonic-diffusion model that is used here to estimate
the number of epithermal gold deposits in the crust relies on
the fact that age-frequency distributions for mineral deposits
reflect the rates at which they formed and moved to the sur-
face. Age-frequency distributions for mineral deposits at con-
vergent margins are log-normal (skewed) in form and there is
a direct relation between the mode (most common value) in
these distributions and the depth at which the deposits form
(Kesler and Wilkinson, 2006). Deposits that form at great
depth require more time to reach the surface than deposits
that form at shallow levels, and their age frequency distribu-
tion defines an older modal age. Using preliminary compila-
tions of isotopic ages, Kesler and Wilkinson (2006) showed
that epithermal deposits, which form largely in the upper
kilometer of the crust, have a modal age of ~3 Ma, whereas
porphyry copper deposits, which originate at average depths
of ~2 km, have a modal age of ~12 Ma, and orogenic gold de-
posits that form largely at average depths closer to 10 km have
a modal age of ~160 Ma. This relation between depths of em-
placement and modal ages makes ore deposits an excellent in-
dicator of uplift and denudation (erosion) rates, and provides
the basis for the tectonic-diffusion model.
The basic function of the tectonic-diffusion model is to pro-
duce a theoretical (computational) age-frequency distribution
that comes as close as possible to matching the actual (real-
Earth) age-frequency distribution for a specific group or type
of deposits (Wilkinson and Kesler, 2007). For the estimate of
Submitted: August 19, 2008
623 Accepted: June 1, 2009
624 KESLER AND WILKINSON

computational surface, for different ratios of uplift, stasis, and

A subsidence. At each iteration of the model calculation, the
25
age-frequency distribution of deposits at the model surface is
Bin Size = 1 Ma compared to the age-frequency distribution for known de-
20
posits by conventional least-squares methods until a best-fit is
Deposits

n = 349
obtained. This provides a quantitative calibration for the cal-
15
culation, and results in estimates of the numbers of deposits
in the subsurface and at the surface, as well as those that have
10
been eroded. These numbers can be multiplied by an appro-
priate average metal content for the deposit type of interest
5
to obtain an estimate of total metal endowment contained in
these deposits. Kesler and Wilkinson (2008) used this ap-
60 50 40 30 20 10
proach and the porphyry copper deposit database of Singer et
al. (2005) to estimate Earths deposit-hosted endowment of
Age (my)
copper.
The depth at which the model deposits are emplaced in the
50 B calculation is estimated from geologic and fluid inclusion data
on actual deposits, as discussed below. The constant rate of
Bin Size = 0.1 deposit emplacement in the model calculation is intended to
40
Deposits

n = 448 approximate a long-term average global rate of mineraliza-

30
20
10
-1 0 1 2 3
log Age (my)
FIG. 1. Ages of epithermal gold-bearing deposits. A. Age-frequency dis-
tribution plotted on an arithmetic scale. Open bars show the actual age-
frequency distribution for all deposits of Cenozoic age. Shaded bars are the
age-frequency distribution that would result if ore formation proceeded at a
Phanerozoic average rate. B. Age-frequency distribution (open bars) plotted
on a log scale showing the approximate log-normal distribution of all deposit
ages. Shaded bars are the normal age-frequency distribution to the log data
(mean = 1.25, standard deviation = 0.71).
epithermal gold resources, we have compiled a global data-
base that is discussed below and that yields an age-frequency
distribution (Fig. 1) very similar to that from our preliminary
compilation (Kesler and Wilkinson, 2006). The important
point to resource estimates is that in generating the theoreti-
cal age-frequency distribution, the model calculation deter-
mines the number and vertical distribution of deposits in the
crust. The calculation does this by emplacing deposits at a
fixed rate and crustal depth, and then allowing each one to
move randomly (tectonic diffusion) upward (uplift and ero-
sion), downward (subsidence and burial) or sideways (stasis)
during each interval of model time (Fig. 2). In the calculation,
some migration paths bring deposits upward to a position
above the Earths surface, where they are eroded (Fig. 2A,
B). Many other deposits undergo amounts of subsidence that
equal or exceed rates of uplift and therefore remain in the
subsurface, never reaching the computational surface; these
constitute Earths crustal endowment of ore deposits (Fig.
2C).
As the calculation proceeds, the model determines the
numbers of deposits at different crustal depths, including the
tion, but does not require that real-Earth rates of mineraliza-
tion are constant. It simply provides a base against which the
history of real-Earth mineralization can be compared. Devia-
tions from this average represent greater and lesser intensi-
ties of mineralization or preservation.
Geologic Characteristics of Epithermal Deposits
Epithermal deposits form at temperatures of less than
about 300C in mainly subaerial hydrothermal systems that
occupy fractures and other permeable zones at depths of less
than about 1.5 km (Simmons et al., 2005). They are usually as-
sociated with volcanic or shallow intrusive rocks, largely in
convergent margin settings, although they are also found in
rift and back-arc settings and less commonly in areas with lit-
tle or no magmatism (Sillitoe, 1993; Cooke and Simmons,
2000; Hedenquist et al., 2000; Simmons et al., 2005). Geo-
logic environments of this type are widespread in the modern
Earth and similar environments were probably present dur-
ing much of geologic history, making epithermal deposits
common and widespread.
Information on epithermal deposits that is needed for the
tectonic-diffusion estimate includes their: (1) average depth
of formation, (2) average gold content, and (3) age-frequency
distribution. Although epithermal deposits have been divided
into two and sometimes three different groups (Simmons et
al., 2005), these groups are not sufficiently different (in terms
of the three parameters used for the model calculation) to
merit separate treatment. Accordingly, epithermal gold de-
posits are considered as a single group for the purposes of this
preliminary resource estimate.
Information used in the estimate was obtained from sum-
mary papers (Hedenquist et al., 1990; Sillitoe, 1993; Cooke
and Simmons, 2000; Hedenquist et al., 2000; Simmons et al.,
2005), supplemented by global compilations of Mosier et al.
(1986), Gosselin and Dub (2005) and unpublished data from
the U.S. Geological Survey (D.A. Singer, writ. commun., May
2008). Additional information came from regional surveys for
the circum-Pacific (Hedenquist et al., 1990), southwest Pa-
cific (White, 1995; Garwin et al., 2005), South America (Vila
and Sillitoe, 1991; Billa et al., 2004) and Central America

0361-0128/98/000/000-00 $6.00 624

 RESOURCES OF GOLD IN PHANEROZOIC EPITHERMAL DEPOSITS 625

Cripple Round
Tayoltita Creek Mountain Sleeper Porgera

1
Depth (km
2

3
A

35 30 25 20 15 10 5
Age (my)
Cerro Richmond
Yandan Pajingo Vanguardia Chelopech Hill

2
Depth (km

8
B
10

300 250 200 150 100 50

Age (my)
Depth (km

C
10

15

500 400 300 200 100

Age (my)
FIG. 2. Time-depth random-walk paths defined by the tectonic-diffusion model calculation showing how some known de-
posits (shaded diamonds) might have moved through crustal time-depth prior to exposure. All deposits were formed at a
depth of 0.5 km (large open diamonds to right). Panels A and B show several different spans of time since formation (deposit
ages): corresponding deposit ages are as follows: ~6 Ma (Porgera, PNG) to 38 Ma (Tayoltita, Mexico), B) ~50 Ma (Richmond
Hill, South Dakota) to 345 Ma (Yandan, Australia). Panel C shows hypothetical depth-time paths of five deposits that were
not exposed during Phanerozoic time. Note that several of these (still buried) deposits nearly reached the surface (shaded
diamonds) but were buried again and did not reemerge during the remainder of Phanerozoic time. If paths were continued
into Precambrian, several paths might emerge as older deposits, such as Hope Brook, with an age of 576 Ma (Dub et al.,
1998). Although duration of burial in these diagrams matches actual data, actual depths could have been greater or lesser.

(Nelson, 1995), and country-specific surveys for Argentina
(Echevarra et al., 2005; Roy et al., 2006), China (Mao et al.,
2007), Greece (Voudouris, 2006), Indonesia (van Leeuwen et
al., 1994), Japan (Watanabe, 2005), Mexico (Camprub et al.,
2003), New Zealand (Christie et al., 2007), Peru (Noble and
McKee, 1999; Billa et al., 2004; Enrquez et al., 2004), Romania
(Kouzmanov et al., 2005), Russia (Konstantinov et al., 1993;
Nockelberg et al., 2005), Turkey (Yigit, 2009), and United
States (Long et al., 1998; John, 2001; D.A. John, writ. com-
mun., December 2007 and March 2009). This was supple-
mented by published research reports and/or corporate re-
ports dealing with specific localities. The database used for

0361-0128/98/000/000-00 $6.00 625

626 KESLER AND WILKINSON
the model calculation contains information on 1,181 deposits
in 49 countries on all continents except Antarctica, and is
available as a supporting document to this paper.
The database on which this calculation is based will be sub-
ject to change and debate at many levels. At the highest level,
there is the question of what deposits to include. Deposits be-
longing to Carlin, skarn, porphyry copper, and orogenic
classes were obviously excluded, but many important deposits
have transitional characteristics and required individual deci-
sions. Among those are the porphyry gold deposits, including
Golden Sunlight, Kisladag and those in the Maricunga belt,
which were included because they appear to have formed at
approximately the same depth as other epithermal deposits
(Jensen and Barton, 2000; Muntean and Einaudi, 2000, 2001;
Sillitoe, 2002, Fig. 1). Also included were deposits in detach-
ment faults such as Picacho and Mesquite in California,
largely on the basis of their relatively shallow crustal setting
and gold-rich composition (Losh et al., 2005). The upper part
of some Bolivian tin-silver deposits such as Cerro Rico
formed under epithermal conditions and were also included
(Kelly and Turneaure, 1970; Cunningham et al., 1996; Sillitoe
et al., 1998). The Charters Towers goldfield in Queensland,
Australia, which has been described both as epithermal-to-
shallow magmatic-hydrothermal (Allan and Yardley, 2007)
and orogenic (Goldfarb et al., 2005), was excluded on the
basis of the higher salinity and relatively higher pressures and
greater depths (relative to epithermal deposits) inferred from
ore-stage fluid inclusions (Kreuzer, 2005). There is also the
question of how to distinguish districts, deposits, prospects,
and mines, a point that is discussed more fully below. Al-
though all of these issues are important at the level of indi-
vidual deposits and districts, they are not sufficiently numer-
ous to change the fact that about 103 epithermal deposits have
been identified worldwide or to change the general form of
the age-frequency distribution for these deposits.
Depths of formation of epithermal deposits
In a few epithermal deposits, such as Ivanhoe, Buckskin,
and McLaughlin, the paleosurface is preserved in the form of
hot spring and sinter deposits, allowing direct estimation of
depths of formation (Vikre, 1987; Sherlock et al., 1995; Wal-
lace, 2003). More commonly, the paleosurface has been
removed, and estimates must be based on fluid inclusion geo-
barometry, especially homogenization temperatures for coex-
isting vapor and liquid inclusions indicating the presence of a
boiling fluid (Vikre, 1985; Snger-von Oepen et al., 1989;
Simmons and Christenson, 1994; Braithwaite and Faure,
2002). The main sources of error in these studies are uncer-
tainty in measurement of homogenization temperatures, lack
of information about the composition and phase equilibria of
dissolved gases, degree of communication between the rising
fluid and its paleosurface, and confusion between paleowater
tables and paleosurfaces (Roedder and Bodnar, 1980; Heden-
quist and Henley, 1985; Simmons, 1991). Despite these un-
certainties, where boiling curves based on fluid inclusion data
are projected to a known paleosurface, they yield geologically
reasonable temperatures at or near 100C (Vikre, 1987; Sher-
lock et al., 1995; Peppard, 2002) and agree with geological re-
constructions. In a recent survey, Hedenquist et al. (2000)
summarized depth estimates for a large number of epithermal
0361-0128/98/000/000-00 $6.00 626
deposits and showed that most of them formed between the
surface and 1,200 m, with an average of about 500 m, which
is the value that we have used in our model calculations.
Ages of epithermal deposits
The age-frequency distribution used here for known (real-
Earth) epithermal deposits is based on isotopic age measure-
ments; most age ranges indicated by geological relations are
too wide to be used. Almost all such age measurements for
Quaternary and Tertiary-age epithermal deposits were ob-
tained from K-Ar or Ar-Ar analyses of K-feldspar, K-mica, or
alunite. Age measurements for a few older deposits were
based on Rb-Sr, Re-Os, or Sm-Nd methods. For a few de-
posits in which isotopic data provided a relatively small range
of permissible ages, an average age was used. Analytical error
for most ages is within a few percent of the value used and
has no effect on the log-normal form of the age-frequency
distribution.
Deposits for which ages are available have a wide distribu-
tion in both age and geographic distribution. Most (~83%) of
the dated epithermal deposits in our compilation are Ceno-
zoic in age (Fig. 1A). In an age-frequency plot, numbers of
Cenozoic deposits increase rapidly and then decrease more
slowly with increasing age (~7% decrease in number of de-
posits per 1 Ma increase in age). The plot contains two max-
ima (Fig. 1A), one between 2 and 4 Ma and another between
11 and 17 Ma, both of which include deposits from numer-
ous geographic areas. From the standpoint of generalizations
about theoretical age-frequency distributions made above,
the maximum between 2 and 4 Ma, which contains more de-
posits than any other similar age range, is essentially the
same as the modal age identified in our original, much
smaller compilation of ages for epithermal deposits (Kesler
and Wilkinson, 2006). The maximum between 11 and 17 Ma,
and especially that at 11 Ma, represents the largest departure
of real-Earth epithermal mineralization from the model-
based curve, which is also shown in Fig. 1A and discussed
below.
Pre-Cenozoic epithermal deposits, which make up only
~19 pecent of the total (Fig. 1B) are more localized in their
geographic distribution, a restriction undoubtedly reflecting
the smaller number of areas with exposed host rocks of
appropriate age and geologic characteristics. Mesozoic-age
epithermal deposits and prospects are most numerous in
southern Argentina (Cerro Vanguardia), eastern China, north-
eastern Russia, and western Canada (Toodoggone) (Diakow
et al., 1991; Echevarra et al., 2005; Mao, 2007; Goryachev
and Yakubchuk, 2008). Paleozoic-age deposits are found only
in a few areas, including northern Queensland (Pajingo),
where they are unmetamorphosed and clearly epithermal
(Baker et al., 2006), and the Lachlan fold belt (Temora, Peak
Hill) in Australia and the Slate belt (Brewer, Haile, Ridge-
way) in the United States, where variable degrees of defor-
mation and metamorphism have resulted in different inter-
pretations of their original form and setting (Thompson et
al., 1986; Kiff and Spence, 1987; Allibone et al., 1995; Ayuso
et al., 2005; Squire et al., 2007). Precambrian-age epithermal
deposits are rare, with the best examples being the Protero-
zoic-age, relatively unmetamorphosed Mahd adh Dhahab
district in Saudi Arabia (Doebrich, 1984; Afifi, 1990) and the
 RESOURCES OF GOLD IN PHANEROZOIC EPITHERMAL DEPOSITS 627

strongly metamorphosed but still recognizable Orivesi de-
posit in Finland (Talikka and Manttari, 2005). Most possible
Archean-age epithermal deposits are controversial. Epi-
thermal models have been proposed for some deposits in the
Hemlo and Campbell-Red Lake districts in the Superior
province of Canada (Penczak and Mason, 1999; Muir, 2002)
as well as the Golden Mile in the Yilgarn province of Australia
(Clout et al., 1990), and Huston et al. (2002) has classified
other Australian deposits including Opaline Well and related
deposits in the Mallina basin and Miralga Creek in the North
Pole area as epithermal. Whether some or all of these repre-
sent the shallow zones of a single phase of orogenic gold for-
mation (Groves et al., 2000) or younger, predeformational
epithermal deposits in multiply mineralized terranes (Robert
et al., 2005) remains a matter of study. From the standpoint
of the resource estimate made here, it is clear that Precam-
brian epithermal deposits are rare in the geologic record
and do not contribute significantly to global epithermal gold
resources.
Gold contents of epithermal deposits
Cataloging gold contents of epithermal deposits involves
two complications, defining individual deposits and arriving
at an appropriate average for the gold content of all deposits.
The problem of how to define a deposit is a well-known com-
plication of efforts to catalog all ore deposits (Singer, 2008).
In some areas, separate mines exploited what would be con-
the relation in equation (1) where N is the total number of
epithermal deposits in our database,
Mk2
E = Ne (1)
and k is the partitioning factor, expressed as equation (2),
k =
N
/2 T, (2)
where T is total amount of gold contained in the 757 deposits
for which we have grade and tonnage information (Fig. 3A).
This distribution can be interpreted to be the result of a
process that began with gold that was originally distributed
homogeneously in the crust and later moved into deposits
with randomly distributed sizes.
Gold contents of the epithermal deposits are also log-nor-
mally distributed with a log-mean of 3.9 (Fig. 3B). From the
standpoint of crustal gold endowment, however, this log-
mean value does not capture the fact that most gold in the
epithermal population is in a relatively few large deposits
(Fig. 3B). About 5 percent of all epithermal gold is in one de-
posit (Yanacocha), 25 percent is in the seven largest deposits,
A
Exceedence

sidered a single deposit from a geological perspective, such as 100

the Valencia, Cata, and Rayas mines that operated on the Veta n = 747
Madre structure at Guanajuato (Gross, 1975). Some of these Total = 25,520 Tonnes
operations were amalgamated later in their life, such as Nues- r2 = 0.99
10
tra Senora de Candelaria and San Luis that became the Tay-
oltita mine (Smith and Hall, 1974). Some deposits, such as
Kelly, Acupan, Antamok, and Baco in the Baguio district, are
so large that, even though they are linked by common struc-
tures (Cooke and Bloom, 1990), they could be considered ei- 1 100 10, 000 1,000,000
ther a single large district or several distinct ones. In some Deposit Gold Mass (kg)
modern operations, such as Yanacocha and Pueblo Viejo
(Turner, 1997; Kesler et al., 2003), entire districts containing
several deposits are combined into a single production unit. B

Cumulative Gold Content

60
100%
Any effort to correct the data for these many complications n = 747
Number of Deposits

and to list information only on geological deposits would al- 50

Bin Size = 0.2 80%
most certainly introduce new and perhaps more controversial Mean = 3.9 1.0
40
errors, and would definitely impede future efforts to update 60%
this compilation. 30
From the standpoint of estimating global epithermal re- 40%
20
sources, it appears that exact definition of geological de-
posits is not a major problem. Our main interest is simply to 10
20%

divide Earths epithermal deposit endowment into computa-

tionally manageable units that include as much known gold
-2.0 -1.2 -0.4 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.2 6.0
mineralization as possible. Confirmation that we have accom-
plished this is seen in the fact that the size distribution of de- log Gold Content (kg)
posits in our compilation can be described by the same den- FIG. 3. Frequency distributions of gold in epithermal deposits. A. Excee-
sity function that describes size-frequencies for numerous dence (Y-axis) plot showing the number of deposits with gold contents equal
common geologic features including lakes, fluvial drainage to or greater than the X-axis values. Heavy line is the ideal size-frequency dis-
basins, geologic units on maps, and tectonic plates (e.g. tribution where metal content of deposits is only dependent on the number
McElroy et al., 2005). In this density function, gold content of designated deposits and the total gold contained in these deposits. B. Log-
plot showing frequency distribution for logarithms of gold contents (kg) of
plotted relative to tonnage exceedence (E, the number of de- epithermal deposits. Heavy black line (left axis) is the best-fit log-normal dis-
posits with gold masses greater than or equal to some value) tribution. Heavy gray line (right axis) is cumulative percent of total gold.
of any deposit with some mass (M), is closely approximated by Note that most epithermal gold is hosted in a relatively few large deposits.

0361-0128/98/000/000-00 $6.00 627

628 KESLER AND WILKINSON

and 50 percent is in the 32 largest deposits. The arithmetic The model results can be scaled to include epithermal de-
mean gold content for the deposits (34.7 t) reflects these high posits for which we do not have isotopic ages by assuming that
values more reliably and is the best estimate of the average the age-frequency distribution for all 1,181 epithermal de-
gold content of the epithermal population. The total amount posits in our database has the same form as that for the 448
of gold in the 757 deposits for which data are available is deposits for which we have isotopic ages. With this change,
about 25,800 t, somewhat larger than the 17,900 t recently es- the calculations indicate that epithermal deposits formed at a
timated for global epithermal deposits by Frimmel (2008). total rate of 562 model deposits/m.y., that a total of ~307,000
model epithermal deposits have formed throughout Phanero-
Estimated Gold Resources and Possible Errors zoic time, that ~244,000 of these were uplifted and destroyed
by erosion, and that ~63,000 currently remain in the subsur-
Estimated gold resources face and constitute Earths endowment of epithermal deposits
The modeled age-frequency distribution (shaded bars in (Table 1). The loss of such a large fraction of epithermal de-
Fig. 1A) that best fits the observed age-frequency distribution posits to erosion results in a distribution pattern in time-
(open bars in Fig. 1A) indicates an average formation rate of depth space in which the maximum number of deposits deep-
213 model deposits per m.y. for Phanerozoic epithermal de- ens slightly with increasing time (Fig. 4).
posits with an emplacement depth of 0.5 0.3 km and pro- Earths epithermal gold endowment can be estimated by
portions of uplift, subsidence and stasis of 32, 36, and 32 per- multiplying the number of model deposits in the crust
cent, respectively (Table 1). These values result in 519 (63,000) by the average gold content of known epithermal de-
Phanerozoic epithermal deposits at the model surface com- posits. Because we assume that presently known epithermal
pared to 448 known deposits (with ages) in the database (Table deposits are a random sample of the total population of de-
1). Although some epithermal deposits are known to exist be- posits in the crust, the average gold content for known de-
neath shallow cover, this does not affect the similarity between posits represents that of unknown deposits. Using this aver-
model and observed age frequencies because the calculation age value (34.7 t) indicates that epithermal deposits have a
defines the upper 295 m of the crust as the surface (the tec- gold resource of about 2.2 106 t (Table 1). Deposits that
tonic step, Table 1), which includes these blind deposits. The have been removed by uplift and erosion during Phanerozoic
calculations indicate further that the 519 exposed model de- time contained an additional 8.5 106 t of gold. Although
posits constitute only ~0.4 percent of all model epithermal de- these estimates apply strictly to Phanerozoic deposits and
posits that have formed during Phanerozoic time (~116,000), rocks, the totals will not increase significantly if we expand
and that about 17 percent (~24,000) of these Phanerozoic the estimate to include Precambrian time because there are
model deposits remain in the subsurface (Table 1). so few deposits of this age.
These results do not represent all epithermal deposits,
however, because only some of the deposits in our database Possible sources of error in the estimate
have isotopic ages and were included in the age-frequency The most obvious sources of error in this estimate of epi-
distribution that was used to calibrate the model calculation. thermal gold resources are in the number and average gold
content of known epithermal deposits. Concern about the
TABLE 1. Results of the Model Calculation and Adjusted Amounts large number of undiscovered deposits estimated by the
Based on the Ratio of Dated Phanerozoic Deposits (448) Used in model calculation results, in part, from a tendency to think of
the Model Calculation to All Deposits (1181) in the Database ore deposits as features that form in the crust and then mi-
Adjusted for grate upward to be discovered and exploited. However, the
all deposits classical series of diagrams in Lowell (1968, fig. 2), as well as
Model result Unit in database more recent studies (Stavast et al., 2008), show clearly that
burial is an important part of the history of many ore deposits.
Emplacement depth1, 2 0.50 0.3 km
Emplacement rate1 213 /Ma 562
Acknowledgement of this fact, in turn, raises the possibility
Modal age1, 2 2 My that significant numbers of deposits remain buried in the
Tectonic step1 295 m/ Ma crust. Some of these deposits, especially those in metamor-
Modal exhumation rate1 250 m/ Ma phic terranes, are probably strongly deformed and possibly
Modal deposit depth1 0.88 km unrecognizable, although the presence of old deposits con-
Up-stasis-down1 32-36-32 %
Total deposits1 116,000 100% 307,000 firms that at least some survive extended burial and remain vi-
Extant deposits1 24,000 17% 63,000 able exploration targets.
Eroded deposits1 92,000 83% 244,000 Because the tectonic-diffusion model uses the age-fre-
Model exposed deposits1 519 quency distribution of known deposits to estimate the num-
Actual exposed deposits2 448
Average gold content2 t 34.7
ber of buried deposits, any increase in the number of known
Gold in total deposits1 t 10.6 106 deposits will cause an increase in the number of buried de-
Gold in eroded deposits1 t 8.5 106 posits. Thus, the tectonic-diffusion model will always yield a
Gold in extant deposits1 t 2.2 106 minimum estimate for the number of deposits in the crust.
For instance, if the number of known epithermal gold de-
The tectonic step, which is 295 m thick, represents the average vertical posits increased by 500 percent from about 103 to 5 103,
distance moved by deposits during each million years of the calculation; it is
therefore the thickness of the surface layer in the model calculation
which would be a major challenge for explorationists, gold re-
1Model-derived parameters sources throughout the crust would increase from 2.2 106
2Data-derived parameters to 1.1 107 t.

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 RESOURCES OF GOLD IN PHANEROZOIC EPITHERMAL DEPOSITS 629

Earth Surface

100

10
Dep osits/km/Ma

0.1 5 km

0.01 5 Ma

Epithermal Gold Deposits

0.001

FIG. 4. Model distribution of epithermal gold deposits in age-depth space for the last 250 m.y. of Earth history (age is on
the X-axis, maximum = 250 Ma; depth is on the Y-axis, maximum = 20 km) assuming that the number of discovered deposits
in our database (1,164) approximately represents all such deposits now exposed at the Earths surface. Color shades are log-
scaled (left column) as the number of deposits that exist in each 1 Ma 1 km time-depth area (a 5 km 5 Ma grid is
shown as the gray reference rectangles). Deposits enter the diagram at the upper right source region (star) at the rate of 562
deposits per m.y. and migrate (diffuse) across the diagram through time. Of the ~307,000 deposits that formed over Phanero-
zoic time, about 20 percent (63,000) are preserved in the crust (42,700 of those <250 Ma in age are represented here), while
83 percent have been removed by uplift and erosion. The gradual deepening of the maximum number of deposits with in-
creasing time results from the loss of large numbers of deposits to erosion.

A more accurate estimate of the average gold content for
epithermal deposits might offset some of this increase, how-
ever. For instance, the average gold content used here (34.7
t) might be lowered by including gold contents for uneco-
nomic, small deposits and prospects. The magnitude of this
effect can be estimated by assuming that all deposits in the
present database for which gold contents are not available ac-
tually contain no gold (0 t). If so, the average gold content of
the entire population of deposits drops to 22 t and this yields
an estimated global gold resource of 1.4 106 t, which is
about two-thirds of the value (2.2 106 t) estimated here. If
we assume that the next 1,000 deposits that are found also
contain no gold, the average gold content of epithermal de-
posits drops to 11.6 t and the resource to 7.4 105 t, about
33 percent of the original value.
This comparison suggests that the two main sources of
error will offset each other and that the ultimate gold en-
dowment estimated here is unlikely to change by more than
an order of magnitude. Comparison to a recent U.S. Geo-
logical Survey (USGS) study provides further support for
this error estimate. In the USGS study, mineral deposits to
a depth of 1 km in the crust of the United States were esti-
mated to contain ~4.5 104 t of gold (Anonymous, 1998).
About 38 percent of this gold was estimated to be in epi-
thermal, hot spring or Au-Ag-Te deposits, all of which are
included in our epithermal compilation. Thus, according to
the USGS study, about 1.7 104 t of gold should be present
in these (epithermal-type) deposits in the upper 1 km of the
United States. The United States accounts for about 6.5 per-
cent of the total continental area of the planet and our cal-
culations indicate that about 20 percent of the epithermal
deposits in the crust are in the upper 1 km (Fig. 4). If epi-
thermal deposits are equally distributed in the continents,
our estimate indicates that about 2.9 104 t of gold should
be present in epithermal deposits in the upper 1 km of the
United States. This comparison can be adjusted to recognize
that most epithermal deposits are in or near volcanic rocks
and that North America contains more than its share (23%)
of the worlds total exposure of Phanerozoic volcanic rocks
(Choubert and Faure-Mauret, 1981). Assuming that the
proportion of volcanic rocks in the United States is the same
as that in North America, results in an estimate of 4.0 104
t. Thus, our estimates of gold in the epithermal deposits in
the upper 1 km of the United States are similar in magni-
tude and only 75 to 150 percent larger than the amount es-
timated by the USGS study. The similarity between our es-
timate and one based on traditional geologic inspection and
extrapolation suggests that the model-based approach pro-
vides a geologically realistic first approximation of Earths
epithermal gold resources.

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630 KESLER AND WILKINSON
Significance of the Estimated Gold Resource
Estimation of the resource of gold in epithermal deposits in
the crust provides insight into the efficiency of geological
processes that make epithermal deposits, as well as the out-
look for sustainable production of gold from them. With a
mass of 1.52 1019 t (Lodders and Fegley, 1998) and an av-
erage gold content of about 2.1 ppb (Taylor and McLennan,
1995; Wedepohl, 1995; Candela, 2004; Rudnick and Gao,
2004), the crust contains about 3.2 1010 t of gold. Some of
this gold was contributed to the crust by mantle-derived mag-
matism during Phanerozoic time (Richards, 2009), but an
equivalent amount was probably returned by subduction.
Thus, about 0.03 percent of the gold in the crust has been
concentrated in an epithermal deposit at one time or another
during Phanerozoic time, and 0.007 percent of that gold re-
mains in epithermal deposits.
Considerably more gold probably passes through hy-
drothermal systems but is not trapped. Simmons and Brown
(2007) showed that the magmatically induced hydrothermal
flux of gold in the Taupo Volcanic Zone was between 8 104
and 1.6 percent 105 t over a period of 1 m.y., much larger than
the amount that might be trapped in epithermal deposits. Ac-
cording to our calculations, 562 epithermal deposits contain-
ing almost 2 104 t of gold formed throughout the world dur-
ing a similar million-year period of Phanerozoic time. The
Taupo Volcanic Zone, with a length of 250 km, constitutes
about 0.56 percent of the 4.53 104 km length of all conver-
gent margin zones. If all of these global convergent margins
behaved like the Taupo Volcanic Zone over a 1-m.y. period,
the flux of gold through Earths convergent margin zones
would be between 1.4 and 2.9 107 t, or about 1,000 to 2,000
times larger than the amount of gold concentrated in epi-
thermal deposits during the same period. Even if the global
convergent margin flux were decreased by an order of mag-
nitude, and acknowledging the anomalous nature of the
Taupo Volcanic Zone (Hochstein, 1995), epithermal deposits
would capture only a few percent of the magmatically in-
duced hydrothermal flux of gold in convergent margin vol-
canic zones. This underscores the fact that mineral deposits
are highly unusual geological features that capture only a
small fraction of the crustal element flux.
We can also compare the metal concentrating efficiency of
Earths epithermal deposits to that of porphyry copper de-
posits with which some epithermal deposits are associated
(Heinrich et al., 2004). Comparisons of this type must be
based on molar quantities rather than on the more familiar
weight units because we are interested in the movement of
atoms. Kesler and Wilkinson (2008) used a variant on the tec-
tonic-diffusion model employed here to estimate that Earth
concentrated about 7.05 1015 moles of copper in porphyry
copper deposits throughout Phanerozoic time, and noted that
this constitutes about 0.11% of the total amount of copper in
the crust (Table 2). These values compare to our estimate
here of about 5.4 1010 moles of gold in epithermal deposits
that formed through Phanerozoic time, which constitutes
about 0.03 percent of the gold content of crust. Thus, Earth
has trapped ~3 to 4 times more crustal copper in porphyry
copper deposits than crustal gold in epithermal deposits
(Table 2). The fact that Earth is more efficient in extracting
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TABLE 2. Comparison between Metal Contents of Phanerozoic Porphyry
Copper and Epithermal Gold Deposits Relative to Crustal Abundances
(data for porphyry copper deposits from Kesler and Wilkinson, 2008)
Cu in Phanerozoic porphyry copper deposits 7.0 1015 Moles
Cu content of the crust 6.2 1018 Moles
Fraction of crustal Cu in porphyry copper deposits 0.11%
Au in Phanerozoic epithermal deposits 5.4 1010 Moles
Au content of the crust 1.6 1014 Moles
Fraction of crustal Au in epithermal deposits 0.03%
RatioCu fraction/Au fraction 3.4
Au content of average epithermal deposit 1.8 105 Moles
Cu content of average porphyry copper deposit 5.5 1010 Moles
RatioCu in deposits/Au in deposits 312,000
Molar units are used to reflect atomic rather than mass amounts
copper into porphyry copper deposits does not mean that
porphyry copper deposits are more abundant than epithermal
deposits, however, because the average porphyry copper de-
posit with 5.5 1010 moles of copper contains about 300,000
times more metal on an atomic basis than the average epi-
thermal deposit with 1.8 105 moles of gold (Table 2). The
larger number and smaller average size of epithermal de-
posits is consistent with their residence in the uppermost part
of the crust, where less heat is available to sustain large, long-
lived hydrothermal systems.
Finally, these estimates of epithermal endowment provide
a rough indication of the sustainability of Earths production
of gold from epithermal deposits. This can be evaluated in
two ways. Most simply, we can ask how long we can mine the
estimated epithermal gold resource. Approximately 2,500 t of
gold are mined each year of which Frimmel (2008) estimates
that 13 percent, or about 325 t, comes from epithermal de-
posits. If future epithermal gold deposits are discovered and
mined largely from the upper kilometer of Earths crust,
which contains about 20 percent of the epithermal resource
as noted above, they might supply their share of societal de-
mand for a little less than 1,400 years. Even if mining goes to
depths of 3 km, the supply appears to be sufficient for less
than 5,000 years at current rates of consumption. On a larger
scale, we can ask how rapidly we are depleting epithermal
gold deposits relative to the rate at which Earth is forming
them. Model results indicate that Earth has formed, on aver-
age, about 562 epithermal deposits containing almost 2 104
t of gold per million years of Earth history (Table 1) whereas
we are producing gold from epithermal deposits at a rate of
about 3.25 108 t per million years. Thus, we are removing
gold from epithermal deposits about 17,000 times faster than
Earth is making new deposits.
It is apparent from this comparison that the discovery rate
for epithermal gold deposits must remain high if we are to
supply societal demand. In view of the fact that we know the
location of considerably less than 1 percent of the epithermal
deposits that are estimated to be present, it is also apparent
that this will require extensive exploration.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to David John and Don Singer of the U.S.
Geological Survey for sharing their databases for epithermal
deposits with us and to Antonio Arribas, Jeff Mauk, John
Muntean, Larry Meinert, Stuart Simmons, and Noel White
 RESOURCES OF GOLD IN PHANEROZOIC EPITHERMAL DEPOSITS
for discussions of epithermal deposits and helpful reviews of
various versions of this paper. The generous assistance of all
of these colleagues does not indicate that they agree with all
of the conclusions that we have reached.
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