Estimating Uncertainty in Ecosystem Budgets

Estimating Uncertainty
in Ecosystem Budgets
Ruth Yanai, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse

Ed Rastetter, Ecosystems Center, MBL
Dusty Wood, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse
Ecosystem Budgets have No Error
Hubbard Brook P Budget

Yanai (1992) Biogeochemistry
Replicate Measurements
Disparate measurements, all with errors?
How can we estimate the uncertainty
in ecosystem budget calculations
from the uncertainty in the component
measurements?
Try it with biomass N in Hubbard Brook

Watershed 6.
Mathematical Error Propagation
When adding, the variance of the total (T)

is the sum of the variances of the addends (x):
For independent errors. If theyre correlated, use the sum of covariances.


Biomass N content =
wood N content
+ bark N content
+ branch N content
+ foliar N content
+ twig N content
+ root N content

Biomass N content =
wood mass wood N concentration
+ bark mass bark N concentration
+ branch mass branch N concentration
+ foliar mass foliar N concentration
+ twig mass twig N concentration
+ root mass root N concentration
When multiplying, variance of the
product is the product of the means times the sum of
the variance of the factors:
When multiplying, variance of the
product is the product of the means times the sum of
the variance of the factors:
wood mass wood N concentration
But
log (Mass) = a + b*log(PV) + error
And
PV = 1/2 r2 * Height
log(Height) = a + b*log(Diameter) + error
The problem of confidence limits for treatment of

forest samples by logarithmic regression is unsolved.
--Whittaker et al. (1974)
Monte Carlo Simulation
Tree Height
2500
2000
Height (cm)
1500
1000
500
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Sugar Maple Diameter (cm)
log (Height) = a + b*log(Diameter) + error

Tissue Mass
14000
12000
Sugar Maple Leaf Biomass (g)
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Sugar Maple Diameter (cm
log (Mass) = a + b*log(PV) + error

Tissue Concentration
2.5
2.4
2.3
Leaf N concentration (%)
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
N concentration = constant + error

2500
2000
Height (cm)
1500
1000
500
300
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
250
14000
Leaf N content (g)

200
12000
10000
150
8000
6000
100
4000
2000 50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2500
2000
Height (cm)
1500
1000
500
300
0
Calculate the nutrient

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
250
14000
Leaf N content (g)
200
12000
10000
150
8000
6000
100
4000
2000 50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2.5
2.4
2.3
contents of wood, branches,

2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
twigs, leaves and roots,

2500
2000
Height (cm)
1500
1000
500
300
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
250
14000
Leaf N content (g)
using species- and element-

200
12000
10000
150
8000
6000
100
4000
2000 50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
specific parameters,
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2500
2000
sampling these parameters

Height (cm)
1500
1000
500
300
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
250
14000
Leaf N content (g)
200
12000
10000
150
8000
6000
100
with known error.

4000
2000 50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2500
2000
After many iterations,

Height (cm)
1500
1000
500
analyze the variance of the

300
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
250
14000
Leaf N content (g)
200
12000
10000
150
8000
6000
100
4000
2000 50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2.5
results.
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
A Monte-Carlo approach could be
implemented using specialized software or
almost any programming language.
This illustration uses a spreadsheet model.

Height Parameters
***IMPORTANT***
Random selection of parameters values
happens HERE, not separately for each tree
Lookup
Lookup
Lookup
Height = 10^(a + b*log(Diameter) + log(E))

Biomass Parameters
Lookup
Lookup
Lookup
Biomass = 10^(a + b*log(PV) + log(E))

Biomass Parameters
Lookup
Lookup
Lookup

Biomass Parameters
Lookup
Lookup
Lookup

Concentration Parameters
Lookup
Lookup
Concentration = constant + error

COPY THIS ROW-->
Paste Values button
After enough
interations, analyze
your results
Repeated Calculations of N in Biomass
Hubbard Brook Watershed 6
t otal N, kg/ha
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0 50 100 150 200
How many iterations is enough?

Mean estimate of Biomass of N
700
680
660
640
kg N/ha
620
600
580
560
540
520
500
0 50 100 150 200 250
Number of Iterations
Two different sets of 250 iterations:

Mean settles down over many iterations
Standard Deviation of Biomass of N
240
220
200
180
kg N/ha
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
0 50 100 150 200 250
Number of Iterations
Uncertainty in Biomass N: 110 kg/ha

Coefficient of Variation: 18%
Approaches to Estimating Uncertainty:
Replicate Measurements
Hubbard Brook W6 is surveyed in

208 25m x 25m plots.
How much variation is there from

one part of this watershed to
another?
This is a more common way to

represent uncertainty in budgets.
Replicate Samples
Biomass for 50 m x 50 m Plots

350
RS
300
WA
250 STM
Biomass (Mg/ha)
YB
200 BE
SM
150
100
50
0
Plot Cluster Plot Cluster Plot Cluster Plot Cluster Plot Cluster
1 2 3 4 5
Variation across plots: 16 Mg/ha, or 5%

Replicate Samples
Biomass for 25 m x 25 m Plots

350
300 RS
STM
250
Biomass (Mg/ha)
YB
BE
200
SM
150
100
50
0
75 108 142 181 204
Plot
Variance across plots: 30 Mg/ha, or 10%

with smaller plots
Which is More Uncertain?
Total biomass Nitrogen content

CV CV
Multiple Plots 5%, 10% 6%, 10%
Uncertainty in 18% 18%
Calculations
Parameter uncertainty doesnt affect comparisons across

space. But it matters when you take your number and go.
The Value of Ecosystem Error
Quantify uncertainty in our results

The N budget for Hubbard Brook published
in 1977 was missing 14.2 kg/ha/yr
Borrmann et al. (1977) Science

Net N fixation (14.2 kg/ha/yr) =
hydrologic export
+ N accretion in the forest floor
+ N accretion in mineral soil
+ N accretion in living biomass
- precipitation N input
- weathering N input
- change in soil N stores
We cant detect a difference of 1000 kg N/ha in the mineral soil

Identify ways to reduce uncertainty
What is the greatest source of
uncertainty in my answer?
Better than the sensitivity estimates that

vary everything by the same amount--
they dont all vary by the same amount!
What is the greatest source of
uncertainty to my answer?
Better than the uncertainty in the

parameter estimates--we can tolerate a
large uncertainty in an unimportant
parameter.
120 250
100 200
N content (kg/ha)
Biomass (Mg/ha)
80
150
60
100
40
20
50
0 0
Stem Stem Branches Leav es Twigs Roots Light Dark Stem Bark Branches Leav es Twigs Roots Light Dark wood
Wood Bark Wood Wood Wood
50% Tissue 50% Tissue
45% 45%
40% 40%
CV of Biomass
CV of N Content
35% 35%
30% 30%
25% 25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
Stem Stem Branches Leav es Twigs Roots Light Dark
Stem Bark Branches Leav es Twigs Roots Light Dark wood
Wood Bark Wood Wood
Wood
Tissue
25 100 Tissue
Biomass Standard Deviation
N Content Standard Deviation

90
20 80
70
(Mg/ha)
15 60
(kg/ha)
50
10
40
30
5
20
10
0
0
Stem Stem Branches Leav es Twigs Roots Light Dark
Stem Bark Branches Leav es Twigs Roots Light Dark wood
Wood Bark Wood Wood
Wood
Tissue
Tissue
Other Considerations
Independence of error (covariance)
Distribution of errors (normal or not)

Additional Sources of Error
Bias in measurements
Errors of omission
Conceptual errors
Measurement errors
Spatial and temporal variation


Identify ways to reduce uncertainty
Advice
One way or another, find a way to calculate
ecosystem errors, and report them.
This is not possible unless researchers also

report error with parameters.

Estimating Uncertainty in Ecosystem Budgets

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Estimating Uncertainty

Ruth Yanai, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse

Hubbard Brook P Budget

Try it with biomass N in Hubbard Brook

When adding, the variance of the total (T)

For independent errors. If theyre correlated, use the sum of covariances.

When adding, the variance of the total (T)

When adding, the variance of the total (T)

wood mass wood N concentration

The problem of confidence limits for treatment of

log (Height) = a + b*log(Diameter) + error

log (Mass) = a + b*log(PV) + error

N concentration = constant + error

Leaf N content (g)

Calculate the nutrient

contents of wood, branches,

twigs, leaves and roots,

using species- and element-

sampling these parameters

with known error.

After many iterations,

analyze the variance of the

This illustration uses a spreadsheet model.

Height = 10^(a + b*log(Diameter) + log(E))

Biomass = 10^(a + b*log(PV) + log(E))

Biomass = 10^(a + b*log(PV) + log(E))

Biomass = 10^(a + b*log(PV) + log(E))

Concentration = constant + error

How many iterations is enough?

Two different sets of 250 iterations:

Uncertainty in Biomass N: 110 kg/ha

Hubbard Brook W6 is surveyed in

How much variation is there from

This is a more common way to

Biomass for 50 m x 50 m Plots

Variation across plots: 16 Mg/ha, or 5%

Biomass for 25 m x 25 m Plots

Variance across plots: 30 Mg/ha, or 10%

Total biomass Nitrogen content

Parameter uncertainty doesnt affect comparisons across

Quantify uncertainty in our results

Borrmann et al. (1977) Science

Quantify uncertainty in our results

Better than the sensitivity estimates that

Better than the uncertainty in the

N Content Standard Deviation

Independence of error (covariance)

Distribution of errors (normal or not)

Spatial and temporal variation

Quantify uncertainty in our results

This is not possible unless researchers also

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