George Mason University

Department of Civil, Environmental and Infrastructure Engineering

Risk and Uncertainty

System Analysis
CEIE-605

Assignment #6

Submitted by- Suhas Prabhudev Nagavalli

Gagan Ratan Koduri
Akshay Kumar Bacha
1. Project Title: Probability based Risk assessment of Ikes kitchen.

2. Team Members:
Suhas Prabudev Nagavalli (G01088248): works in Ikes gives complete on-site
information.
Gagan Ratan Koduri (G01085718): works on the possible threats mentioning and
calculation.
Akshay Kumar Bacha (G01069466): response to the data and draft it as per
requirement.

3. Consequences:
We took the help of the staff to analyze the threats and assets. From that data, we have
classified accordingly and listed below.

Threat-Asset Pairs:

ASSETS (Impact)
Sr.
THREATS Kitchen
No. Workers Infrastructure Hardware
Appliances

a. Fire high high high high

b. Domestic terrorist high low low low

c. Electrical short circuit high high moderate low

d. Earthquake high moderate high moderate

a) Fire: A fire accident can lead to serious damage of infrastructure, kitchen

equipment, hardware and workers. This can lead to serious injuries to the workers.
This also causes huge financial loss.

b) Domestic terrorist: This can lead to fatal damage to the workers and also lead to
serious injuries.

c) Electric threat: Short circuits or loose connections can be very fatal and can also lead
to huge financial losses.

d) Earthquake: This can lead to damage of the whole infrastructure and also can
directly cause damage to kitchen appliances, hardware and also loss of life. This will
cause huge financial loss.
4. Countermeasures:
(a) Against Fire: In fire emergencies, we can make use of the fire extinguishers,
fire exit, fire sensors which alert the workers.
(i) Fire extinguishers: It is a device used to control fires in case of emergency
before the arrival of paramedics and this can be very essential in Ikes
kitchen.
(ii) Fire Alarm system: It is system of devices which is installed to detect
smoke, fire and any other gases which can avoid fatal fire accident.
(iii) Water sprinklers: It can also reduce the intensity of fire accident.

(b) Against domestic terrorist: In case of domestic terrorist, we should always

take pre-measures like restricted entry, surveillance cameras.
(i) Restricted entry: For the entry to kitchen section an access card with
credentials is required. Hence theres a less probability of facing the
domestic threat.
(ii) Surveillance cameras: Installation of cameras and surveillance round the
clock, helps in monitoring the activities in the kitchen.

(c) Against Electrical short circuit: In case of this, there are preinstalled MCB
circuit boards which cuts the electric supply and emergency exits should be
taken and regular check are to be done.

(d) Against Earthquake: In case of earthquake, the ways to exit should be kept
clear, the hardware should not block the ways for the exit.

5. Vulnerability:
It is a measure of effectiveness of the countermeasures against specific threat to
specific assets.
For the vulnerability analysis for our project we have followed Event Tree
Diagram.
Fire: The vulnerability for the fire is analyzed based on countermeasures such as
fire extinguishers, fire alarms systems and water sprinklers.
Domestic terrorist: The vulnerability for the domestic terrorist is assumed on the
basis of history of Gun violence and gun crime in Virginia.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/guns-
crime/reports/2015/10/27/124132/virginia-under-the-gun/
Electric short circuit: The vulnerability for the electric short circuit is assumed on
history of deaths and also the loss in Virginia.
Earthquake: The vulnerability for the earthquake is assumed on the previous data
which was given by https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/guns-
crime/reports/2015/10/27/124132/virginia-under-the-gun/
6. Threat Likelihood:
The threat likelihood is the probability that a specific threat will occur in any given year.
The specific threats are fire, terrorist attack, short circuit, earthquake. The proxy
method is used to determine the direct threat.