Method to the Madness

11/2/17 Contributor: Michael Appel Volume 5; Issue 3

Gray Zone to Hot War: The South China Sea Crisis

After the thun- strong sense of national- Russia, proves to be the
The South China Sea dering fall of the Berlin ism, multiplying navy pivotal battle ground for
Threat: Wall ushered in the col- and land forces, and not only for Chinas
Economic risks lapse of the Soviet Un- technological advances, dominance over South
ion, the United States among other accom- East Asia, but a China-
Regional hege- broke free of a bipolar plishments, is better po- led realignment of the
monic balance world order and trium- sitioned as a substantial currently US-dominated
Risk for military phantly ascended international
clash as a unipolar system. Peace is
power. Today, unlikely given
American hegem- the level of co-
ony faces a re- operation re-
vanchist Russia, quired by rivals
pressing to test in Asia. Thus,
the U.S. commit- the United
ment to its East- States and Chi-
ern European na seem poised
NATO allies, and a ris- threaten to displace the to prepare for war, ren-
ing China, attempting to U.S. as the sole super- dering the principles of
claim established power. The conflict siz- Clausewitz relevant to
spheres of U.S. interest. zling in the South China each nations strategies
Unlike an arguably fad- Sea, not the struggle in domestically, diplomati-
Inside this issue: ing Russian power, Chi- Syria against non-state cally, and militarily.
na, fortified with a sky- actors nor the dispute in
South China Sea 1 rocketing economy, Ukraine with a desperate

North Korean Situa- 5

tion
Examining US Security Interests
The Longest War: 9
Afghanistan The breadth of
security threats con-
Russias Revanchist 13 fronting the U.S. is for-
Agenda midable. Yet the U.S.
The Arab Springs 20 should not myopically
Destructive Plunge focus disportionately--
though understandably--
Boko Haram and 25 on counterterrorism in
Whats Next in Niger irregular wars; it must
Abes planned Con- 29 also avoid being blind-
stitutional Changes sided by a considerably
more costly convention-
al war. The evolving na- motives and strategy.
ture of war demands at- Granted, traditional wars
tention be paid to Chi- with tanks and artillery
nas not-so-subtle sig- are easy to grasp, but the
naling in the South Chi- gray area preceding its
na Sea. To do so re- launch is more difficult
quires the U.S. to aban- to decipher. Here
don its either-or dichoto- Clausewitz wades into
my between war and the politically murky
peace, following the waters of the South Chi-
lead of China, in order na Sea..
to better understand its
 Method to the Page 2
Madness

The Chinese Perspective:

From Chinas nership reduced Ameri- multiple magnitudes
perspective, the South cas chance to increase lesser than that of Chi-
China Sea cannot be the confidence of its na, their aggressiveness
split among lesser re- Southeast Asian allies, to their island claims is
gional states. The islands whose economies poten- in direct correlation with
of the sea hold billions tially will be more inter- U.S. reinforcement. In
of barrels of oil and nat- twined with China than many ways, Southeast
ural gasenergy inde- before. Asia resembles the Car-
pendence remains a top Even more deter- ibbean Sea, punctuated
national priority for Bei- minative than its econo- by small islands encir-
Chinese Demographics jing. Regarding the key my, Chinas geographic cled by the large main-
trade nodes, Chinese position aligns it toward land U.S.China would
goods dominate the mar- the South China Sea and certainly desire to obtain
ket, providing them a the states of Southeast its own mare nostrum,
sense of entitlement to Asia. Because the other despite protests to the
control more of the re- contending statesthe contrary by the Chinese
gions trade. Important- Philippines, Brunei, Vi- government.
China ly, the U.S. rejection of etnam, Malaysia, and
the Trans-Pacific Part- Taiwanhave power
would
certainly Extending the Caribbean Analogy

desire to Extending this trade nodethe Panama war to fulfill its policy
analogy, China strongly Canalnot only granted agenda. Surely, the dis-
obtain its resembles America in American dominance puted islands, the minor
the 19 centuryaware
th
over the region, but won states around them, and
own mare of the influence of Euro- prestige, putting the U.S. the pivotal Strait of Ma-
pean powers in the area, at the same table as the lacca would greatly aug-
nostrum but believing itself, in European hegemons. ment Chinese power
Hobbesian rationale, en- Spain and the rest of Eu- and, if America is unable
titled to sphere the re- rope never took Ameri- to come to a diplomatic
gion. The war against cas claims to the region agreement, a war to es-
Spain, Roosevelts Cor- through the Monroe tablish governance
ollary Doctrine, and cre- Doctrine seriously; would simply be a mere
ation of the prominent America then turned to continuation of politics.

Current situation

Xi JinpingPresident
of China
 Volume 5; Issue 3 Page 3

Constructivism Analysis:
Clausewitz degrading their neigh- American allyfurther
claimed War is never bors as savages. Howev- flamed the fire. Chinas
an isolated act; the long er, these proud people history explains their
history of the Middle felt disgraced by the ex- desire to conquerto
Kingdom provides an- ploitations of the west in overthrow what they
other aspect to Chinas the 19 century, as treaty
th
view as an exploitive
aggressive stance in the ports were established Western influence from ClausewitzFather of
South China Sea. China forcibly and trade poli- its backyard and prove
Realism
is not a fabricated 20 -
th
cies like the Open-Door itself as a great power.
century state by any Policy destroyed Chinas
stretchits prestigious economy, flooding it
and powerful dynasties with foreign goods and
have been cultural and devastating civil wars
economic icons for mil- like the Taiping Rebel-
lennia. The Chinese dif- lion. The abuses and
ferentiated their culture horrors inflicted by the
and people as civilized, Japanesenow a close The current
free trade
between Asia
and America
Inside Story Headline
will be
To guarantee of a setting up fortresses and can regional powers en-
threatened if
status quo where China weapon systems. Never- joy both the security pro-
remains a non- theless, American air- vided by the United this gray area
expansionist, purely eco- craft carriers patrol the States, while developing conflict turns
nomic power, the U. S. waters to curb Chinese strong trade ties with
into to a hot
must rally the neighbor- aggression and maintain China; tensions will
ing states to take a seri- international naval free force states to pick a battlefield.
ous stance on their re- trade agreements. side. This uncertainty,
spective island claims The current free coupled with the strong-
and check Chinas ex- trade between Asia and er emergence of nation-
pansion into the area. So America will be threat- alism tied to each states
far, the American effort ened if this gray area respective South China
is faltering; China has conflict turns into to a Sea claims, has spurred
claimed various islands, hot battlefield. No longer the rapid growth of mili-

taries in the area os- na Sea unpopular among the Chinese navy signifi-
tensibly no human rights American citizens. The cantly lags behind that of
concerns are at play, ra- popularity of Chinese the U.S. However, an
ther strictly the pursuit policy among its citi- offensive attack by the
of policy through war. zens, compared to the Chinese on a U.S. navy
Chinas Clause- abysmal confidence rates would inspire damaging
witzian aim will be to of Americans in their international retaliation;
disarm the enemy, government, increases China will continue to
meaning make the US the chances of China occupy and militarize
foreign policy of inter- successfully conveying island after island, forc-
vention in the South Chi- this narrative. No doubt ing the U.S. to go first.
Method to the
Madness
Address: Pyongyang, North Korea
Phone: 542-124-1765
Fax: 124-131-6543E
mail: mttm@gmail.com
Breaking News thats not New
Conclusion
No doubt, the
U.S. cannot merely
flex its military mus-
cle; cooperation with
stronger allies will
lower world tension
and preserve the care-
fully crafted post
World War Two world
Contributor: Michael Appel
order. Unipolar na Sea is integral to a
hegemons consistently favorable solution.
get toppled; the U.S. Furthermore, any
must strengthen and chance at a peaceful
lead its allies into a communication will
new era of multipolari- require a serious meet-
ty. Reliance on, not ing of the regional
dominance by, the US stakeholdersJapan,
navy in the South Chi- the US, India, China,
and some representa-
tive of ASEAN
cooperating and nego- Japans Shinzo Abe will
tiating as equals, a po- need to expand his military
sition the U.S. might
reject as from personal
pride.