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Annu. Rev. Sociol. 1995. 21:93-113
Copyright D 1995 by Annual Reviews Inc. All rights reserved
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION
A quiet revolution is underway in social science. We are turning from units
to context, from attributesto connections, from causes to events. The change
has many antecedents:the exhaustionof our old paradigm,our inherentdesire
for change, the new powers of computers.It also has many consequences: new
areas for empirical work, new methodologies, rediscovery of importantold
theories.
This essay concerns the temporalfacet of this move toward context, a turn
towardprocess and events that has taken shape in something called sequence
analysis. It should be understoodthatsequence analysis (SA) is not a particular
technique, like event history analysis. It is rathera body of questions about
social processes and a collection of techniques available to answer them.
I begin with a review of the turn toward context, locating SA within a
broaderclassification of approachesto social life. I then consider a variety of
empiricalliteraturesthatraise problemsappropriatefor SA. This section leads
93
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94 ABBOTT
LITERATURES
I have focused my prior reviews of sequence literatures (1983, 1990) on
sociology alone. But readers have been befuddled by seeing familiar things
like careers and school-to-work transitions through the unfamiliar lenses of
sequence analysis. I thereforebase my review on diverse sequence literatures
aroundthe social sciences, turningto sociology properonly at the end. In all
areas, the review is selective, not exhaustive.
Psychology
The largest literatureon sequences in social science is in psychology. This
work is in three areas:cognition (broadly understood),interactionsequences,
and theories of developmentalstages.
The first majorcognitive sequence topic is perception.Typically, sequences
here are sequences of stimuli, treatedas independentvariablesthat affect level
of perceptionor discrimination.Thus Polich (1987) studies EEG responses to
tone sequences, Baird et al (1991) study verbaljudgments of loudness in tone
sequences, and Allik (1992) studies judgments of motion given random dot
patternswith varying luminance. Occasionally this literaturestudies internal
dependence,but only as an independentvariable:French-St.George & Breg-
man (1989), for example, study the impact of predictabilityof tone sequences
on ability to discriminatetones. This has been an area of considerable theo-
retical development, aimed at the general problemof how subjects distinguish
"parameter"change from "noise" change in sequential perceptual stimuli.
Treisman& Williams (1984) advanced the theory of criterion-settingfor this
problem, while van Leeuwen et al (1988) explain sequence influences by a
more general formal theory of perception.
ANALYSIS
SEQUENCE 97
Economics
Economics, like psychology, features several disparate literatures on se-
quences. Thereis a longstandingliteratureon sequence problemsin operations
research proper that ties loosely to studies of sequential games. The games
literatureties furtherto some paperson sequence problemsin generaleconomic
theory. There is also a specific literatureon sequences in markets. Finally,
there is some writing on sequence effects in advertising and consumption,
loosely relatedto the literaturein psychology on sequence effects in perception.
The operations research literatureis highly technical. Most of it concerns
scheduling problems where there are one or more machines capable of per-
forming several tasks, and the costs of setting up machines for new tasks are
a function of the sequence in which the tasks are done. [A favorite example:
making chocolate cake mix after white cake mix requires less set up than
making white cake mix after chocolate! (Meier et al 1982 cited in Dilts &
Ramsing 1989)] Exemplary papers are Chand & Chhajed (1992), Dilts &
Ramsing (1989), Dobson (1992), and Gupta & Darrow (1986). Perhapsmore
interesting,for its practicalutility, is Nakai's (1986) paperon anothercommon
problem,how to make a best selection of candidatesinterviewed sequentially,
once known as "the classical secretaryproblem"(Nakai 1986:478). Although
these papersseem technical, they concern problems centralto daily social life
and addressed by a variety of satisficing strategies. They provide important
models for thinkingaboutsocial processes. Because of its genesis in immediate
application,operationsresearchwork on sequence and scheduling often makes
a lot more practical sense than do the more arcane flights of game theory.
In general economic theory, sequence concepts are uncommon, since the
characteristic move of that area is to seek asymptotic distribution theory
precisely in order to ignore the sequence of intermediatestates. Nonetheless,
sequential equilibrium(Kreps & Wilson 1982) is an importanttopic in game
theoretic economic writing (e.g. Besanko & Spulber 1990). In sequential
equilibria,game players' strategiesrespondto each others' given beliefs about
the rest of the game and to informationsets governing theirknowledge of other
players' behaviors.The centralempiricalquestions involve the game's coming
to rest in one or more equilibriumpoints. Hoel (1987) relaxes the customary
game theoreticassumptionof an exact alternatingsequence of offers, allowing
"plays"at random times by randomplayers. Economists, like psychologists,
have often used Markovianapproachesto sequences, as in Hopp's (1987) study
of investment decisions.
A related literatureconsiders sequences within specific market contexts.
Here, as in the psychological literature,sequence may be either central (as in
studies of interaction)or simply used as an independent variable. The most
common issue is reaction to certain kinds of sequence signals, as in psy-
100 ABBOTT
Sociology
The two principal sociological literaturesinvolving sequential conceptions
have both been discussed in recent Annual Reviews. The life cycle literatures
were reviewed by O'Rand & Krecker in 1990, and the careers literatureby
Rosenfeld in 1992. I have little to add to those reviews in terms of coverage
of the literature.
Although sequences have made many appearancesin sociology, there are
few formal theoretical analyses for them. I have already noted the Fararo/
Skvoretztradition.Therewas also early workby Maybew and others (Mayhew
et al 1971, Mayhew & Levinger 1976), and by Abbott who (1983) attempted
to characterize the theoretical and methodological literature on sequences.
Beyond that, the theoretical work in sociology is minimal. By far the most
importanttheoreticalliteraturesfor understandingsequences of social events
per se are the analyticalphilosophy of history (reviewed in Gardiner1959 and
monumentalizedin Danto 1985) and the structuralisttheory of narrative(re-
viewed in Chatman1978 and epitomized in the astonishinglybrilliantBarthes
1974). These are large literatures,not to be summarizedsketchily. Nor have
they been transcendedby the culturalistmuddles about history that dominate
debateson historiographyandnarrativetoday. An attemptto reconcile all these
literaturesis Ricoeur (1984-1985: definitely not for the intellectually faint at
heart).
Thereare really threelevels of sequence conceptionsin sociological writing.
ANALYSIS
SEQUENCE 103
The simplest are linear stage theories. These are familiar not only in the life
course literature,but also in the dozens of "-ization"literatures-profession-
alization,rationalization,modernization,and so on. In sociology, formal stage
theories have long been common. One finds them in Marx, Michels, Bateson,
Kuhn, Smelser, and many others. A particularlyrich source are the "natural
histories"of the Chicago School, whose leaderRobertParksaw stage theories
nearly everywhere: in revolutions (Edwards 1927), gangs (Thrasher 1927),
commercial organizations (Hughes 1928), criminal careers (Shaw 1930),
dancers' careers (Cressey 1932), and so on. Other versions of stage theories
are theories about "short sequences" that must be negotiated in some order,
typically the school-to-work transition,but often something more quirky like
the transition to criminality (Sampson & Laub 1993). These are "turning
points" theories.
The next level of sequence conception involves much more contingency
and accident than do stage theories. Sequences here are often more subject to
influence by othersequencesor by marginalconditions.Most of thejob careers
literaturetakes this approach,probablybecause even at the simplest level-
employment and unemployment-job histories are astonishingly erratic. I
thereforecall these "career"theories,bearingin mind thatmany theories about
people's careers are actually stage theories, expecting regular development,
usually of nonrecurrentevents.
The most extreme form of sequence conception makes all sequences inter-
dependentin a complex network.I have elsewhere (1992c) called such theories
interactionalfield theories. They are quite common. White's (1970) vacancy
chain model is of this kind, but so also was Abbott's theory of professions
(1988a). Such theories requirequite unusual methodological handling;White
resortedto modeling sequences of holes in the system ratherthan sequences
of jobs held by individuals (see Chase 1991 for a review of such models).
The sociological literaturethus involves some of the same issues as do other
literatures,but it has different emphases. Stage theories dominate in the life-
course literatureand in much of the "transitions"literaturethat is a part of it.
But by contrastcareertheories dominatemost job research,and the despairof
discovering patternedsequences has forced that literatureto focus on point
outcomes or one-step stochastic models.
METHODS
Researcherswith sequence datasets and sequence-relatedquestionscan follow
a fairly clear decision tree in their search for methods. The first decision is
whether to analyze actual data or to constructdata based on parametersfrom
actual data, that is, to simulate. The latteris the choice of game theory and its
relatives, and I do not treat it extensively, as Oliver (1993) has reviewed a
104 ABBOTT
lynching and Eder & Enke's (1991) equally challenging analysis of gossip.
See also Heise's own applications,especially Corsaro& Heise (1990).
Farmore thanAbell and Abbott, Heise has focused on problemsof semantic
definition in sequence analysis. The end result is an exceptionally clear and
empirically justified coding of the narrative, combined with the idea that
generalization entails finding other narrativesthat "collapse" into the same
primitivestructurewhen the variousnarrativelines aresimplified. (This is more
or less the narrativehomomorphismcriterionof Abell, which Heise, in com-
mentingon Abell 1993, arguesis the best criterionfor sequence resemblance.)
Abell's homomorphismapproachto sequence resemblancegrew out of his
own research on cooperatives and his extensive critique of standardmethod-
ologies (Abell 1987). The best recent exposition is Abell 1993, which has the
advantage of being followed by lengthy responses from Heise, Fararo,
Skvoretz, Abbott, and other analysts of social sequence data. Like Heise's
methods, Abell's are applicableto complex, networknarratives.[They should
ultimately be available (in late 1995) in the UCNET system of programs,but
at presentare availablefrom MartinEverettin the Departmentof Mathematics,
Greenwich (England) University.] Abell's methods presume, like Heise's, a
data set comprising various narrativesof various degrees of complexity, but
they focus more on the formal graphical structureof these narratives.They
contain routines for reducing any coded narrativeto a minimal homomorphic
representation,which effectively allows one to furtherclassify a set of Heise
codings once they are developed within ETHNO. Abell (1993) has done a
detailed analysis of narrativedata on consumer cooperatives.
Abbott's strategyfor sequence analysis-optimal matchingor optimalalign-
ment as it is usually called-derives from a broad movement in the hard
sciences, although it was stimulatedby his work as a historical sociologist of
occupations (Abbott 1988a) and his critique (similar to Abell's) of general
linear models (Abbott 1983, 1988b). The methods Abbott has adaptedderive
from biology and from the patternresemblance community in computer sci-
ence. The classic text on these methods is Sankoff & Kruskal(1983). Recent
primers are Heijne (1987) and Gribskov & Devereux (1992). Some recent
developments are discussed in Abbott (1993).
The principalpracticaldifference between Abbott's methods and Heise's or
Abell's is that Abbott's are limited to unilinear sequences and proceed by
metric means. They presume a data set made up of sequential lists of events,
like job careersor criminalcareers.Undermoreor less parametricassumptions
about the resemblanceof individualevents (jobs or crimes), the methods allow
one to find resemblances between either entire sequences or subsequences
within them. As with other metric techniques of sequence analysis, these
resemblances are then input to scaling, clustering, and other categorization
methods to uncover actual categories of patterns. Abbott's techniques are
108 ABBOTT
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