Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
March 2017
Sampe L. Purba
VP of Natural Gas Commercial Division, SKK Migas
Natural Gas Value Chain
Natural Gas Value Chain
Added Value
The longer the chain, the more added value can be obtained
Sumber: Ferrostaal
Natural Gas Based Petrochemical Production Route
Natural Gas
Notes :
Present in Indonesia
Absent in Indonesia
Priority of National Industry
Development Blueprint
NILAI TAMBAH GAS BUMI
Natural Gas Added Value
Note: Added value calculated from product market price against raw material price
Example:
3 petrochemical product value chains can give 20% higher added value and
employs 8 times the labour of LNG value chain processing the same amount of gas.
Petroleum/condensate based Petrochemical Products
Petroleum
(Naphtha)
Notes :
Present in Indonesia
Absent in Indonesia
Priority of National Industry Development Blueprint
Current Condition of
Petrochemical and Fertilizer Industry
Petrocemical Industry Obtaining Gas Allocation
from Upstream O&G Industry
Ammonia Urea
Ammonia
Natural
At the Propylene Polypropylene
Gas moment
Ethylene Polyethylene
Methanol
PVC
Dimethyl
Ether
8
PRODUK Natural
PETROKIMIA BERBASIS
Gas / Syn-gas based SYN-GAS (C-1)
Petrochemical Products
AMMONIA DERRIVATES
2014 (MT) Last 5 Years
No. Product Name Growth
Production Import Export Demand (%)
1. Ammonia 5.524.545 59.252 684.400 4.899.397 1,21
2. Urea 6.469.606 120.750 1.118.085 5.472.271 -0,92
3. Nitric Acid 465.568 15.657 5 481.220 151,95
4. Ammonium Nitrate 441.600 161.167 83.071 519.696 126,24
5. Ammonium Sulfate 816.001 864.452 7.525 1.672.928 0,74
6. Carbon Black 135.200 150.462 16.057 269.605 -0,04
METHANOL DERIVATES
2014 (MT) Last 5 Years
No. Product Name Growth
Production Import Export Demand (%)
1. Methanol 455.150 557.362 404.152 608.360 -1,50
2. Acetic Acid - 111.864 1 111.863 -
900,000
Import Value (in thousand US$)
800,000
700,000
600,000
2008
500,000 2009
2010
400,000
2011
300,000 2012
200,000
100,000
0
Metanol Ammonia Etilena Propilena Polietilena Polipropilena
Petrochemical Products Import
140 24
LPG Domestik ICP
2.63% 22
LNG Domestik Export Pipeline
6.10% 120 Domestic Pipeline
111.55 112.73 20
Export LNG
105.85
Kelistrikan Domestic LNG
18
97.02 96.51
15.71% 100
15.63
16
Pupuk 14.49
79.40 13.52 13.95 13.53 13.82
LNG Ekspor 13.38
US$/MMBTU
9.95%
US$/BBL
80 14
29.34% 72.31
11.43 11.41 11.34
64.26 12.84 12.04 12
Industri 61.58 11.68 11.67
9.86 9.82
21.68% 60 10
8.33 8.65
49.21
9.87 9.68 7.71 45
7.08 8
8.39
40
Ekspor Gas 6.195.49 6
Pipa 6.19 6.35 4.81
5.80 5.65
BBG11.67% City Gas 5.23 5.11 4
Lifting Minyak
20 4.83
Transportasi 0.04% 4.12
2.83% 3.81 3.73 3.67
0.05% 3.15 2
0 0
2011
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Tahun
(1 boe = 5.8 MMBTU)
13
Utilization of Gas For Industrial Sector
117 BBTUD
US$ 5.1/MMBTU
1
2
Refinery
Pupuk
482 BBTUD 908 BBTUD
US$ 5.8/MMBTU Direct to end User Petrokimia
US$ 5,7/MMBTU
Via Midstream 1600 BBTUD Other Industries
US$ 4.7/MMBTU
1118 BBTUD
US$5,3/MMBTU
125 BBTUD
US$ 4.8/MMBTU
166 BBTUD
US$ 6,4/MMBTU 3
85 BBTUD
US$ 6.6/MMBTU
PGN
Pertagas Niaga
Trader Lain
868 BBTUD
US$ 5,4/MMBTU
14
Gas Cost as a percentage of Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
15
15
Example of Upstream Revenue distribution
9.00
8.00
7.00
HARGA GAS (US$/MMBTU)
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
Catatan :
- Menggunakan asumsi harga gas diatas US$4/MMBTU
- Share split Bagi Hasil PEP 60:40
- Asumsi menggunakan provisional entitlement Q2 2016
- Asumsi cost recovery menggunakan pendekatan proposional terhadap revenue per sales kontrak (untuk Outlook 2016) 16
Gas Price Component - Industri Indonesia 2016
Success is a gamble
Drilling High Risk
Petrochemical industry need to compete with energy sector to obtain gas supply
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL 19
Typical Structure of Project Financing in Petrochemicals Project
3 Years Project
EPC Contractor Off-Taker/Buyer
Petrochemicals
Engineering, Procurement Off-take / Long Term / Short
and Construction Contract 10 Years or Term Sales Agreement
max 20 Years
Gas Supplier
Mostly Tertiary
Western part
Eastern part
Deep Water Area > 200m
20 prospects and 40 leads in Mesozoic; 3 leads in Palezoic. 6 PSCs in DeepWater :
Avg GCF 23% (Moderately Risk) - StatOil - Marathon
Total Risked Resources 0.39 BBO + 5.7 TCF. - Chevron - Talisman Sageri
- ExxonMobil Oil - COPI
Most fields in the western part are in tertiary stage, Most fields in the eastern part are deepwater,
depleted reservoirs with high production cost. They cost more to drill and develop.
Separated by the sea and long distances, gas infrastructures are disconnected.
It takes extra cost to deliver to users by building pipeline or transport it as LNG
Future Strategic Upstream Oil and Gas Projects
IDD
Production:
Bangka: 120 MMscfd (2016)
Gehem Hub: 420 MMscfd (2020) KASURI
JANGKRIK Gendalo Hub: 700 MMscfd (2020)
Production (2017): Ongoing reservoir
ANDE ANDE LUMUT 450 MMscfd, DONGGI SENORO certification
4100 bopd
Production (2018) Production :
25000 bopd Senoro: 310 MMscfd (2015),
ACEH
6000 bopd
Donggi: 60 MMscfd (2016), TANGGUH TRAIN-3
RIAU Matindok : 65 MMscfd
NORTH EAST
ISLANDS
KALIMANTAN (2017), 500 bopd Production (2019):
SUMATERA 3,8 MTPA LNG ,
3200 bopd
KEPODANG BUKIT TUA CENTRAL
SULAWESI
Production Production (2016):
CENTRAL (2015):
116 SUMATERA
MMscfd 20000 bopd PAPUA
50 MMscfd
SOUTH SUMATERA
SOUTH
SOUTHSULAWESI
MAHAKAM 3 ABADI
LAMPUNG
BANYU URIP
WEST
JTB-CJAVA Production (2015):
120 MMscfd, MASELA
Production (2025):
990 MMscfd
Production (2015) Production (2019)CENTRAL
JAVA EAST
165000 bopd 330 MMscfd JAVA MADURA BD
Production (2016):
110 MMscfd,
Proposed Solution :
Downstream need to have some share in the Upstream Project
Downstream Project can be developed by the Parent Company of the PSC
Contractor and its partners, at the same time as the Upstream Project.
By doing so, the government should grant PSC extension as an incentive for the
added value enjoyed by the country, under the provision that the Downstream
Project are developed simultaneously.
Thank You
Terima Kasih
slpurba@skkmigas.go.id
sampepurba@gmail.com
Brief CV
Mr. Purba entered some Universities both domestics and abroad. He holds
undergraduate and post graduate degrees in Economics, Commerce and Law.
He is also alumni of Prestigious Regular National Leadership Course in National
Resilience Institution Republic of Indonesia
Mr. Purba also active communicating his ideas on many strategic and current
issues, through newspapers, radio, TV, journals and book. Some of his thought
can be followed in http.//maspurba.wordpress.com
30
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL
Brief CV
31
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL
Fulfilling Domestic LPG Demand with Petrochemical Product
6,000
5,000
4,000
kilo Tonnes
3,000
2,000
1,000
Properties unit LPG DME MeOH
Vapor Pressure kPA 520 530 13 -
Liquid Density kg/m3 540 667 792 2012 2013 2014 2015
Heating Value MJ/kg 46 28.8 23 Upstream Lifting Consumption
Bottle Fill % 80 85 Source: SKK Migas Accounting and Statistik Migas (MESDM)
Price
Indonesia has converted household kerosene use into LPG in 2008, LPG consumption grows 10% annually
Since the natural decline of rich gas production and new reservoirs found are lean gas, LPG production cant keep up
Blending DME that can be produced locally from Methanol into LPG can reduce the reliance of LPG imports
There is a possible demand of 825 000 tonnes DME if the Govt. of Indonesia decides to blend 15% DME
80,000
70,000
60,000
Million Liters
50,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2013 2014
Diesel LNG Crude Oil and Condensate Lifting Fuel Consumption (mix)
Source: SKK Migas annual report and Statistik Migas (MESDM)
Ujung
Pandang
Ardjuna
Fields
FSRU NR Jakarta Cirebon Semarang MADURA
Bangkalan
I Pagerungan
N D O N E S I A
J A V A Surabaya
Kapasitas : 3 MTPA SUMBAWA Maluku Selatan
FLORES Merauke
Onstream Mid of 2012 LOMBOK
BALI
Indian Ocean SUMBA
TIMOR LNG MASELA (HULU)
(PLAN)
35
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL
Pasokan LNG Domestik
in MMSCFD
SURPLUS
DEFICIT
36