Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
CONTENTS
Energy scarcity
General resource scarcity
Metals scarcity
Global threats
Global opportunities
Concluding remarks
Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 1.06.2017
slide 2
ENERGY SCARCITY
WORLD ENERGY
Source: Charles A.S. Hall, Energy Return on Investment A Unifying Principle for Biology, Economics, and Sustainability,
Springer, 2017, ISBN 978-3-319-47820-3
Source: Richard C. Duncan, The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization,
The Social Contract, Winter 2005-2006
Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 1.06.2017
slide 7
Source: Sgouridis, S., Csala, D., Bardi, U., The sowers way: quantifying the narrowing net-
energy pathways to a global energy transition, Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 094009, 7.09.2016
Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 1.06.2017
slide 8
10
Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 1.06.2017
slide 9
GENERAL RESOURCE
SCARCITY
Energy harvesting from diluted forms of energy (like solar and wind) requires more
materials per unit of energy production than from fossil fuels
Energy scarcity also means food scarcity and scarcity of potable water
2017
Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 1.06.2017
slide 13
METALS SCARCITY
EXAMPLE: GOLD
Source: A.M. Diederen, Global Resource Depletion, Managed Austerity and the Elements of Hope, 2009 & 2010
GLOBAL THREATS
GLOBAL THREATS
Now:
Economic stagnation and contraction (started in 2008)
Stagnant wages and declining discretionary spending power
Growing income inequality
GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES
GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES
Use the leverage of complex adaptive systems to counter depletion and scarcity,
amongst others:
Buffers (build stockpiles)
there are no
Delays (use less, longer product lifetime)
solutions in
Reinforce balancing feedback loops (recycling, substitution)
isolation!
Neutralize reinforcing feedback loops (simplification)
Change the rules
(product and process (re)design, backsourcing of production)
Increase resilience:
Robustness
Further reading: Donella Meadows, Leverage
Redundancy Points Places to Intervene in a System (1999),
Resourcefulness accessed via thesolutionsjournal.com/node/419,
October 2009
Response
Recovery
Global Resource Depletion: Threats and Opportunities 1.06.2017
slide 22
THREATS TO
THE NETHERLANDS
(IN ADDITION TO GLOBAL THREATS)
imports exports
OPPORTUNITIES FOR
THE NETHERLANDS
COUNTERMEASURES TO THREAT
Threat to international trade: in a worse than zero sum game world, the global
economy contracts and the right of the strongest becomes a dominant factor
source: www.investinholland.com
CONCLUDING REMARKS
Peter Drucker: The best way to predict the future is to create it
Military wisdom: 1. accept the situation, 2. make a plan and 3. act accordingly
Great political leaders: 1. gather all available information, 2. draw up a time table
and 3. act accordingly.
Precautionary principle / least regrets options
Invest in productive assets instead of consumption (and emphasize humans over
dead stuff)
Charles Darwin: It is not the strongest species that survive, nor the most
intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change
Charles A.S. Hall, Energy Return on Investment A Unifying Principle for Biology, Economics, and Sustainability, Springer,
2017, ISBN 978-3-319-47820-3
Richard C. Duncan, The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization, The Social Contract, Winter 2005-2006
Sgouridis, S., Csala, D., Bardi, U., The sowers way: quantifying the narrowing net-energy pathways to a global energy transition,
Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 094009, 7.09.2016
Charles A.S. Hall, Energy Return on Investment A Unifying Principle for Biology, Economics, and Sustainability, Springer,
2017, ISBN 978-3-319-47820-3
Dennis L. Meadows, The Limits To Growth A Report for the Club of Romes Project on The Predicament of Mankind (1972),
accessed through the Dutch translation Rapport van de Club van Rome, ISBN 9027452466, 1972
Ugo Bardi, Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the Planet, ISBN 978-1603585415, 2014
A.M. Diederen, Metal minerals scarcity: A call for managed austerity and the elements of hope,
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5239, 2009
A.M. Diederen, Global Resource Depletion, Managed Austerity and the Elements of Hope, Eburon Academic Publishers, Delft,
The Netherlands, ISBN 978-90-5972-425-9, 2010
Donella Meadows, Leverage Points Places to Intervene in a System (1999), accessed via thesolutionsjournal.com/node/419,
October 2009
Markus A. Reuter, Digitalizing the Circular Economy, Metallurgical and Materials Transactions B, December 2016