ABSTRACT

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I desire to express our heartiest gratitude to Dr. Md. Mahmudur Rahman, Assistant Professor,
Department of Civil Engineering of Ahsanullah University of Science and Technology and Supervisor of
this Thesis. We faced a lot of problems while going through this assignment. We should also express our
convivial gratitude to him, for all support and encouragement. He also guided us all the way and helped
us to accomplish our aspiration. His unstinting efforts on our behalf are worth mentioning. We are
certainly indebted for his precious insights. Those proved more than enough to overcome the
difficulties.

In this regards, we should express our regards and warm gratefulness to all of my teachers of
Ahsanullah University of Science and Technology, for their valuable advice and facilitate.

At last we affectionately appreciate all of friends for their cordial helps thorough out the year.

Arman Zaman (060203010)

Shamsul Arefin Khan (060203014)

Prosenjit Paul (060203037)

 CHAPTER1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 General

Earthquakes originate due to various reasons, which fall into two major categories viz non-
tectonic and tectonic. The origin of tectonic earthquakes is explained with the help of ‘elastic rebound
theory'. Earthquakes are distributed unevenly on the globe. However, it has been observed that most
of the destructive earthquakes originate within two well-defined zones or belts namely, 'the circum-
Pacific belt' and 'the Mediterranean-Himalayan seismic belt'.

Although Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to seismic activity, the nature and the level of this
activity is yet to be defined. In Bangladesh complete earthquake monitoring facilities are not available.
The Meteorological Department of Bangladesh established a seismic observatory at Chittagong in 1954.
This remains the only observatory in the country.

The classical engineering approach for providing seismic safety in building structures is to ensure
their conformance to the current seismic design codes. This is indeed a valid approach for new buildings.
However, the majority of the existing buildings in seismic regions do not satisfy modern code
requirements. Yet, the ratio of severely dam- aged or collapsed buildings observed after a severe
earthquake is much less than the ratio of substandard buildings. The difference is usually significant.

An effective step for seismic risk mitigation in large urban areas under high seismic risk is to
identify the most vulnerable buildings that may sustain significant damage during a future earthquake.
Once they are identified properly, existing seismic risks may be reduced either by retrofitting such
buildings, or by replacing them with new buildings in view of a particular risk-mitigation planning
strategy.

It is basically a sidewalk survey procedure based on observing selected building parameters

from the street side, and calculating a performance score for determining the risk priorities for
buildings.

Several studies have been made on buildings in a small town in Israel in a mountainous area.
Most of its residential buildings, as is quite typical all over Israel, were built during the last 60 years.
There are some 1600 low to moderate height (up to 8-9 stories) residential buildings in this town. In the
first stage of the research a group of buildings was arbitrarily selected in order to implement the
methodology's procedures and then conduct site visits in order to document and compare the real data
with the predicted data. Comparisons were done between the estimated values established according to
the present methodology and the real values of the examined buildings. The following parameters were
compared: the number of dwelling units per typical floor, the number of expansion joints and the
number of stories in the building. The comparison shows good predictions, with a limited number of
discrepancies, that are related to several reasons among which are: uncommon distance between
expansion joints in one building, mistaken data in the basic GIS database regarding the height of the
building in another building, and in another building we found out that retrofit of the building was
carried out long after its construction and added a new wing thus adding significantly to the dwelling
unit area. These discrepancies cannot be predicted, however they are exceptional compared to a very
good correspondence of all other examined buildings.

1.2 Status Of Earthquakes In Bangladesh:

Bangladesh is surrounded by the regions of high seismicity which include the Himalayan Arc
and SHILLONG PLATEAU in the north, the Burmese Arc, Arakan Yoma anticlinorium in the east and
complex Naga-Disang-Jaflong thrust zones in the northeast. It is also the site of the Dauki Fault
system along with numerous subsurface active faults and a flexure zone called Hinge Zone. These weak
regions are believed to provide the necessary zones for movements within the basin area.

Figure 1

In the generalized tectonic map of Bangladesh the distribution of epicenters is found to be

linear along the Dauki Fault system and random in other regions of Bangladesh. The investigation of the
map demonstrates that the epicenters are lying in the weak zones comprising surface or subsurface
faults. Most of the events are of moderate rank (magnitude 4-6) and lie at a shallow depth, which
suggests that the recent movements occurred in the SEDIMENTs overlying the basement rocks. In the
northeastern region (SURMA BASIN), major events are controlled by the Dauki Fault system. The events
located in and around the MADHUPUR TRACT also indicate shallow displacement in the faults separating
the block from the ALLUVIUM.

The first seismic zoning map of the subcontinent was compiled by the Geological Survey of
India in 1935. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department adopted a seismic zoning map in
1972. In 1977, the Government of Bangladesh constituted a Committee of Experts to examine the
seismic problem and make appropriate recommendations. The Committee proposed a zoning map
of Bangladesh in the same year.

In the zoning map, Bangladesh has been divided into three generalised seismic zones: zone-
I, zone-II and zone-III. Zone-I compri sing the northern and eastern regions of Bangladesh with the
presence of the Dauki Fault system of eastern Sylhet and the deep seated Sylhet Fault, and
proximity to the highly disturbed southeastern Assam region with the Jaflong thrust, Naga thrust and
Disang thrust, is a zone of high seismic risk with a basic seismic co-efficient of 0.08. Northern
Bangladesh comprising greater Rangpur and Dinajpur districts is also a region of high seismicity
because of the presence of the Jamuna Fault and the proximity to the active east-west running fault and
the Main Boundary Fault to the north in India. The Chittagong-Tripura Folded Belt experiences
frequent earthquakes, as just to its east is the Burmese Arc where a large number of shallow depth
earthquakes originate. Zone-II comprising the central part of Bangladesh represents the regions of
recent uplifted Pleistocene blocks of the Barind and Madhupur Tracts, and the western extension of the
folded belt. The Zone-III comprising the southwestern part of Bangladesh is seismically quiet, with an
estimated basic seismic co-efficient of 0.04.

1.3 Objective& Scope Of Study

The scopes are expanding, fragility functions pertain to a group of buildings in a given area (cell)
rather than a specific building. The scope of the study presented herein extends one step further:
several selected parameters are evaluated simultaneously to obtain a performance score for each
building. This score separates each building from the other buildings in the inventory in risk
classification.
 CHAPTER 2

CONCEPT OF EARTHQUAKE ASSESSMENT & METHODOLOGY

2.1 Introduction

Recent earthquakes in urban environments revealed that building damage increases with the
number of stories when the building lacks basic seismic-resistant design fea- tures. Other factors that
have significant contribution to damage are also well estab- lished. These are: the presence of severe
irregularities such as soft stories and heavy overhangs; other discontinuities in load paths; poor material
quality, detailing, and work- manship. It is usually difficult to quantify the sensitivity of damage to each
parameter analytically; however, statistics help. Fragility functions may be developed for determin- ing
damage probabilities, hence for estimating losses in certain building types under given ground-motion
intensities

The proposed approach aims at developing of a rapid GIS based technique for assessing the
structural systems of a large inventory of residential buildings, where only limited data is available.
There is need for much more data in order to come up with the "most likely" structural scheme of a
building that will enable its analysis, and this data is derived from logical procedures that are based on
several data bases. The proposed methodology makes an attempt to produce the information from a
"distance", namely without the need to search for the buildings documents, or conduct site visits to
check and document the buildings, or perform any measurements or tests whatsoever. The entire work
is done in the office by a computerized set of algorithms, with automatic decisions based on pre-defined
rules, at a very short time and with minimal time resources compared to all other alternatives.

Some of the important stated parameters that influence damage significantly can be
determined quite easily by visual observation. The simplest ones are the number of sto- ries, soft
stories, heavy overhangs, and the overall apparent quality of the building re- flecting the quality of
construction. These are discussed separately below.

2.2 Parameters

 Number of stories
 Presence of soft story
 Presence of heavy overhangs
 Apparent building quality
 Presence of short columns
 Pounding between adjacent buildings
 Local soil conditions
 Topographic effects
Number Of Stories

Field observations after the 1999 Kocaeli and DUzce earthquakes revealed a very sig- nificant
correlation between the number of unrestrained stories and the severity of build- ing damage. If all
buildings conformed to modern seismic design codes, then such a distribution would not occur and a
uniform distribution of damage would be expected regardless of the number of stories. The increase in
seismic demand with the number of stories is not balanced with the increase in seismic capacity in
substandard buildings. After the 1999 DUzce earthquake, damage distribution for all 9,685 buildings in
DUzce was obtained by official damage assessors. These data were then sorted with respect to the
number of stories (Sucuog˘ lu and Yilmaz 2001). The results are shown in Figure 1, where the number of
damaged buildings is normalized with the total number of build- ings at a given story number.

It can be observed that damage grades shift almost linearly with the number of sto- ries.
However, the objectivity of the assigned damage grades is questionable since the distributions indicate
higher damage than that observed by the field survey teams de- ployed by the Middle East Technical
University. According to the Turkish Natural Di- saster Law, the owners of the damaged buildings are
entitled to state compensation, which increases with the damage grade. This practice places a public
pressure on the official damage assessors. Particularly, assignment of moderate and higher damage
grades to all five- and six-story buildings is misleading. There were many undamaged or lightly damaged
five- to six-story buildings in DUzce after the earthquake, yet there is a clear indication that the number
of stories is a very significant or perhaps the most domi- nant parameter in determining the seismic
vulnerability of typical multistory concrete buildings in Turkey. The number of freestanding stories in a
building is identified as the number of “seismic” stories in this study.

Presence Of A Soft Story

Soft stories usually exist in buildings when the ground story has less stiffness and strength
compared to upper stories. This situation mostly arises in buildings located along the side of a main
street. Ground stories that have level access from the street are reserved as commercial space whereas
residences occupy the upper stories. These upper stories benefit from the additional stiffness and
strength provided by many partition walls, but the commercial space at the bottom is mostly left open
between the frame members for customer circulation. Besides, the ground stories may have taller
clear- ances and different axis systems, causing further irregularity. The compound effect of all these
negative features from the earthquake-engineering perspective is identified as a soft story. Many
buildings with soft stories were observed to collapse due to a pancaked soft story in past earthquakes
worldwide.

During street surveys, the presence of a soft story is evaluated on an observational basis, where
the answer is either yes or no.
Presence Of Heavy Overhangs

Heavy balconies and overhanging floors in multistory reinforced concrete buildings shift the
mass center upwards; accordingly increase seismic lateral forces and overturning moments during
earthquakes. Buildings having balconies with large overhanging cantilever spans enclosed with heavy
concrete parapets sustained heavier damages during the recent earthquakes in Turkey compared to
regular buildings in elevation. Since this building feature can easily be observed during a walk-down
survey, it is included in the parameter set.

Apparent Building Quality

The material and workmanship quality, and the care given to its maintenance reflect the
apparent quality of a building. A well-trained observer can classify a buildings apparent quality roughly
as good, moderate or poor. A close relationship had been observed between the apparent quality and
the 4 Haluk Sucuoglu and Ufuk Yazgan experienced damage during the recent earthquakes in Turkey. A
building with poor apparent quality can be expected to possess weak material strengths and inadequate
detailing.

Presence Of Short Columns

Semi-in filled frames, band windows at the semi-buried basements or mid-story beams around
stairway shafts lead to the formation of short columns in concrete buildings. These captive columns
usually sustain heavy damage during strong earthquakes since they are not originally designed to
receive the high shear forces relevant to their shortened lengths. Short columns can be identified from
outside because they usually form along the exterior axes.

Pounding Between Adjacent Buildings

When there is no sufficient clearance between adjacent buildings, they pound each other during
an earthquake as a result of different vibration periods and consequent non-synchronized vibration
amplitudes. Uneven floor levels aggravate the effect of pounding. Buildings subjected to pounding
receive heavier damages at the higher stories.

Local Soil Conditions

Site amplification is one of the major factors that increase the intensity of ground motions.
Although it is difficult to obtain precise data during a street survey, an expert observer can be able to
classify the local soils as stiff or soft. In urban environments, geotechnical data provided by local
authorities is a reliable source for classifying the local soil conditions.

Topographic Effects

Topographic amplification is another factor that may increase the ground motion intensity on
top of hills. Besides, buildings located on steep slopes (steeper than 30 degrees) usually have stopped
foundations, which are incapable of distributing the ground distortions evenly to structural members
above. Therefore these two factors must be taken into account in seismic risk assessment. Both factors
can be observed easily during a street survey.

2.3 Assessment Of Available Methods

Most of the existing evaluation methods refer to a single building, among which we may find:
methods that a rebased on statistics of past EQ damage records (Whitman, 1974), methods that are
based on experts subjective opinion (ATC-13, 1985. FEMA 178, 1992. EMS 1998) methods that are based
on score assignments of predefined checklists exposing structural deficiencies that do not contain even
elementary engineering calculations (FEMA 154/5, 1998. NRC-CNRC, 1996. NZSEE, 1996. I. S 2413,
2003), simple analytical methods to simulate buildings response that are essentially simple approximate
solutions that must rely on a few parameters (ATC-14, 1987. Calvi, 1999. Priestley, 2003) and detailed
analytical procedures (ASCE 41-06, 2007) which are more accurate but require much data and are time-
consuming.

The reliability of these methods differ considerably, from limited reliability of the simple
statistical and rapid screening methods, to the most reliable methods that are based on detailed
analytical procedures that may evaluate the mechanical behavior of the structural system under
consideration, but require an enormous amount of data, that is commonly not available, and take much
time in their processing.
 Chapter 3

Background Literature

3.1 Introduction

Earthquake is trembling or shaking movement of the earth's surface. Most earthquakes are
minor tremors, while larger earthquakes usually begin with slight tremors, rapidly take the form of one
or more violent shocks, and end in vibrations of gradually diminishing force called aftershocks.
Earthquake is a form of energy of wave motion, which originates in a limited region and then
spreads out in all directions from the source of disturbance. It usually lasts for a few seconds to a
minute. The point within the earth where earthquake waves originate is called the focus, from
where the vibrations spread in all directions. They reach the surface first at the point immediately
above the focus and this point is called the epicenter. It is at the epicenter where the shock of the
earthquake is first experienced. On the basis of the depth of focus, an earthquake may be termed as
shallow focus (0-70 km), intermediate focus (70-300 km), and deep focus (> 300 km). The most common
measure of earthquake size is the Richter’s magnitude (M). The Richter scale uses the maximum
surface wave amplitude in the seismogram and the difference in the arrival times of primary (P) and
secondary (S) waves for determining magnitude (M). The magnitude is related to roughly logarithm of
energy, E in ergs.

Accurate historical information on earthquakes is very important in evaluating the

seismicity of Bangladesh in close coincidences with the geotectonic elements. Information on
earthquakes in and around Bangladesh is available for the last 250 years. The earthquake record
suggests that since 1900 more than 100 moderate to large earthquakes occurred in Bangladesh, out
of which more than 65 events occurred after 1960. This brings to light an increased frequency
of earthquakes in the last 30 years. This increase in earthquake activity is an indication of fresh tectonic
activity or propagation of fractures from the adjacent SEISMIC ZONEs.
3.2 Chronology

Before the coming of the Europeans, there was no definite record of earthquakes. Following
is a chronology of important earthquakes from 1548.

1548 The first recorded earthquake was a terrible one. Sylhet and Chittagong were violently

shaken, the earth opened in many places and threw up water and mud of a sulphurous smell.
1642 More severe damage occurred in Sylhet district. Buildings were cracked but there was no
1663 Severe earthquake in ASSAM, which continued for half an hour and Sylhet district was not
loss of life.
1762 The greatits
free from earthquake
shock. of April 2, which raised the coast of Foul island by 2.74m and the
northwest coast of Chedua island by 6.71m above sea level and also caused a permanent
submergence of 155.40 sq km near Chittagong. The earthquake proved very violent in Dhaka
and along the eastern bank of the MEGHNA as far as Chittagong. In Dhaka 500 persons lost
their lives, the RIVERs and JHEELs were agitated and rose high above their usual levels and
1775 Severe
when theyearthquake
receded in Dhaka
their around
banks wereApril 10,with
strewn but no loss
dead of A
fish. life.
large river dried up, a tract of land
1812 Severe earthquake in many places of Bangladesh around May 11. The earthquake proved
sank and 200 people with all their CATTLE were lost. Two volcanoes were said to have opened
1865 Terrible inshock
in the Sitakunda
violent was
Sylhet felt, during the second earthquake occurred in the winter of 1865,
hills.
1869 Known asno
although Cachar Earthquake.
serious Severely felt in Sylhet but no loss of life. The steeple of the
damage occurred.
church was shattered, the walls of the courthouse and the circuit bungalow cracked and in the
1885 Known as the Bengal Earthquake. Occurred on 14 July with 7.0 magnitude and the
eastern part of the district the banks of many rivers caved in.
epicentre was at Manikganj. This event was generally associated with the deep-seated
1889 Occurred on 10 January with 7.5 magnitude and the epicentre at Jaintia Hills. It fected Sylhet
town and
Jamuna surrounding areas.
Fault.
1897 Known as the Great India Earthquake with a magnitude of 8.7 and epicentre at Shillong

1918 Plateau.asThe
Known thegreat earthquake
Srimangal occurred
Earthquake. on 12on
Occurred June18atJuly
5.15 pm,a caused
with magnitudeserious damage
of 7.6 and to
masonry buildings in Sylhet town where the death toll rose to 545. This was due to the collapse
1930 epicentre
Known as at
theSrimangal,
of the masonry Dhubri Maulvi
Earthquake.
buildings. Bazar.
The tremor Intense
Occurred ondamage
was felt occurred
3 July with
throughout in Srimangal,
a magnitude
Bengal, from ofthe7.1but
andinLushai
south DhakaHills
the only
minor
on theeffects
east were observed.
1934 epicentre
Known as theto
at Shahbad
Dhubri,
Bihar-Nepal onEarthquake.
Assam. the
Thewest. InOccurred
Mymensingh,
earthquake causedon 15 many
major public
January
damage withbuildings
inathe of theof
magnitude
eastern district
parts
8.3 of
and
town, including the Justice House, were wrecked and very few of the two-storied brick-built
the epicentre
Rangpur
Another
houses at Darbhanga
district.
earhquake
belonging tooccured
ZAMINDARs of
onBihar,
JulyIndia.
3survived. The
with Heavy earthquake
a magnitude
damageofwas caused
7.1 great
and the
done thedamage
bridgesatinon
to epicentre Bihar,
Dhubri
the
Nepal and Uttar Pradesh but did not affect any part of Bangladesh.
Dhaka-Mymensingh railway and traffic was suspended for about a fortnight. The
1950 of Assam,
Known India.
as the The Earthquake.
Assam earthquake causedOccurredconsiderable
on 15 August damages
with ainmagnitude
greater Rangpur district
of 8.4 with theof
Bangladesh.
river communication of the district was seriously affected (BRAHMAPUTRA). Loss of life was not
1997 epicentre on
Occurred in Assam, India. The
22 November tremor waswith
in Chittagong feltathroughout
magnitude Bangladesh but no
of 6.0. It caused damage
minor was
damage
great, but loss of property was estimated at five million Rupees. Rajshahi suffered severe
reported.
1999 shocks, especially
around Chittagong
Occurred on 22 July on atthe
town. eastern side,
Maheshkhali and with
Island 15 persons died. IninDhaka
the epicentre damage
the same to aproperty was
place,
heavy. In Tippera masonry buildings and old temples suffered a lot and the total damage was
2003 magnitude
Occurred
estimatedon ofRs
at 5.2.
27 Severely
July
9,000. felt around
at Kolabunia unionMaheshkhali islandRangamati
of Barkal upazila, and the adjoining SEA. Houses
district with
cracked and in some cases collapsed.
magnitude 5.1. The time was at 05:17:26.8 hours.
3.3 Review of previous works

Saidur Rahman (Director of Bangladesh Disaster Preparedness Centre)

A world famous seismologist Professor Billham said in 2001 that in the Himalayan region, at
least seven earthquakes of the strength 8.1 and above on the Richter scale are overdue. A team of
experts led by him did a survey and they identified seven to eight risk prone countries and
Bangladesh is obviously one of them because of its geographical location. Secondly a study by a UN
sponsored programme called International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction in the period from
1991 till 2000 surveyed at least 30 different cities. And the findings of the survey are very threatening
to us. They are saying that the two most vulnerable cities to earthquake are Tehran and Dhaka.
There were several factors to come to this conclusion. For example situation in an earthquake zone,
physical infrastructure, socio-economic condition of the people living there and most importantly
response management.

Dr M Shahidul Islam( Professor, Department of Geography, University of Chittagong)

Potential earthquake threat and our coping strategies

Although earthquake in Bangladesh has not yet been recognised as a case of serious natural
disaster, but recent occurrences and assumptions have already generated a potential threat. The
incidents of recent repeated earthquakes on 27 July in Chittagong have raised a great concern
among the people of the country, particularly among those around Chittagong region.

What is an earthquake? It is a shock or a series of shocks on the earth surface resulted from
release of pressure due to sudden movement of crystal rocks along active fault lines or plate boundaries
of the earth surface or in areas of volcanic activities. Some parts of the world are earthquake prone
more than others, although such event may happen at any place, any time and that of any magnitude.
Japan, the Philippines, Southeast Asia and North America are particularly vulnerable to earthquake.

Geographically Bangladesh is located close to the boundary of two active plates: the Indian plate
in the west and the Eurasian plate in the east and north. As a result the country is always under a
potential threat of earthquake of any magnitude at any time, which might cause catastrophic
devastation in less than a minute. In the seismic zoning map of Bangladesh, Chittagong region has been
shown under Zone II with basic seismic coefficient of 0.05, but recent repeated jerk around this region
indicate the possibilities of potential threat of even much higher intensity than projected.

A total of about six lackh incidents of quakes of different magnitudes occur annually throughout
the world of which that of magnitudes 6-7, 7-8 and above 8 are 120, 18 and 1, respectively. The records
in Bangladesh during the last 175 years shows total number of 25, 18 and 4 incidents of earthquakes
having intensity more than 6, 7 and 8 on Richter scale, respectively. Among such incidents Bengal Eq of
14 July 1885 (R-7), Great Indian Eq of 12 June 1897 (R-8.7), Srimangal Eq of 8 July 1918 (7.6) and Assam
Eq of 15 August 1950 (R-8.5) are well known. However, people's awareness regarding earthquakes in
Bangladesh began to generate after the tragic death of Sadia (a little girl) in a quake of only R-5.6
magnitude on 21 November, 1997. Moreover, the incidents of repeated shocks between 22 July and 2
August, 1999 at Moheskhali and the damages to lives and properties could draw the attention of the
nation considerably. Since then earthquake in Bangladesh has been considered as a potential natural
killer to human lives. The last major earthquake in Bangladesh occurred about 30 years back.
Statistically the threat of such a high magnitude tremor has the highest possibly to happen at any time,
which might cause devastations particularly in Dhaka and Chittagong cities.

The occurrence of earthquakes is part of the natural process in the earth's geophysical system.
Under the present stage of scientific development it is not possible to stop such natural events, and
even if it was possible to do so, we should not intervene such internal system of the earth. However,
understanding the characteristics of internal geophysical process of the earth and possibility of its
forecasting can reduce the casualties from such incident considerably. Developed countries are doing
continuous research in this field. Rather it is better to accommodate this event and develop technology
to live with such incident, as we are living with cyclones, storm surges and floods. However, locating
the epicenters and monitoring the characteristics of each shock may improve our understanding
considerably and lead us to develop some preventive measure to live with earthquakes. It is thus
immediate necessity to upgrade the existing earthquake measurement station at Ambagan in
Chittagong and complete the two other proposed stations at Dinajpur and Sylhet.

Bangladesh has improved tremendously to mitigate and manage many of its natural disasters,
although the mitigation strategies regarding earthquake has remained nearly in its infant stage. At this
stage the country does not need to take any radical measures to mitigate the earthquake incident,
rather the concept of earthquake mitigation and management issues can be incorporated within the
existing disaster management programme of the government, ranging from National Disaster
Management Council to Union Disaster Management Committee. Proper training to voluntary
organisations and NGOs, and procurement of instruments required for rescue operation must get top
priority in the management agenda. Moreover, motivation programme and increasing of people's
awareness can reduce the casualties from any earthquake incident considerably.

It is not the earthquake rather it is the building that kills people. If the collapse of even a single
building can become possible to stop, it can save many lives residing in that building. It is not possible to
abandon all old buildings, under the potential threat of earthquake. However, it is quite possible that all
newly constructed buildings and structures must be brought under strict building code that resists
earthquake damage.

Bangladesh is possibly one of the countries most vulnerable to potential earthquake threat and
damage. An earthquake of even medium magnitude on Richter scale can produce a mass graveyard in
major cities of the country, particularly Dhaka and Chittagong, without any notice. Construction of new
buildings strictly following building code or development of future controls on building construction are
the activities which will be functional in future. However, under the present stage of human occupancy,
buildings, infrastructures and other physical structures of different areas of a city will not be equally
vulnerable to any such shock. Earthquake vulnerability of any place largely depends on its geology and
topography, population density, building density and quality, and finally the coping strategy of its
people, and it shows clear spatial variations. It is thus necessary to identify the scale of such variations
and take necessary measurements to cope with that.

Although the earthquake tremors cannot be stopped or reduced, the human casualties and loss
of properties can be reduced with the help of an earthquake vulnerable assessment atlas. An
earthquake atlas is the presentation of facts relating to earthquakes and the guideline for earthquake
mitigation measurements at regional scale in the form of map, graphs, pictures and text. Such an atlas
provides clear guidelines to post disaster rescue operation, regional scale mitigation strategies and
stepwise disaster management activities. We do not have any such atlas neither at national level nor at
regional level. However, it is the timely demand to prepare an earthquake vulnerability assessment atlas
of Bangladesh in general, and for the major cities in particular.

Large scale mitigation measurement needs huge initial investment; however, to save human
lives and properties, we should not hesitate to do so. Particularly strict control of building codes,
enforcement of laws and orders, and development of people awareness has no alternatives. However,
some immediate measures are suggested below:

- Make an inventory of all old buildings which are vulnerable to earthquake, and either repair or
evacuate occupants from those buildings.

- Make an inventory of houses, which are constructed at the foot of steep hillsides, particularly
where hill slopes have been cut, even ten years back. Relocate those families to suitable places.

- Make earthquake vulnerability atlas of major cities, which will show in detail the list of
vulnerable sites, their possible consequences and possible measurements of mitigation at different
scales of earthquake events.

- Strict application of building codes for all newly constructed buildings, particularly all high rises
buildings.

- Development of awareness programme to educate people regarding the causes and

consequences of earthquakes. And also to disseminate knowledge to them regarding their
responsibilities before, during and after the earthquake through seminar, symposium and workshop,
and also through non-formal education by GO and NGOs.

During the 20s and 30s of the last century Japan lost 1.5 lackh human lives only in five
earthquake incidents. But that society has faced this challenge successfully over the last 50 years.
During the last 80s and 90s a total of 30 events hit the country causing loss of less than six thousand
lives. Japan has not succeeded to stop earthquakes but has reduced the human casualties and loss of
properties dramatically. At the present stage of our society and current level of development we may
seem helpless but through our sincerity, honesty and commitment we may even do better than the
Japanese society. We should therefore be optimistic and thus active.
MIR FAZLUL KARIM, (Director, Geological Survey of Bangladesh)

Vulnerability to earthquake for Bangladesh:

There are some valid questions: Is Bangladesh vulnerable to earthquakes? Should we be

concerned about an earthquake when occurrences of earthquake damages are not so significant? The
country faces so many day-to-day problems related to environment, industrial pollution, traffic, water
and power shortage, and annual calamities such as flood, drought, cyclone and tidal bore. Can we
afford to ignore earthquake hazards?

Earthquakes are the detectable shaking of the earth's surface resulting from seismic
waves generated by a sudden release of energy from inside the earth. Any landmass which
has experienced natural ground shaking in the past is vulnerable to earthquake risk and thus liable
to earthquake hazard. A severe earthquake can bring devastation to the economy of the country and we
cannot ignore potential danger of earthquakes.

Bangladesh: A geological location for earthquakes

The geological structures in and around Bangladesh are capable of accumulating tectonic
strain. These structures have released enough energy to produce destructive shakes in the past.

Fortunately, the frequency of large earthquakes in and around the country is less than in
other earthquake-prone regions of the world, though sometimes the lone national seismic
observatory station at Chittagong measures a relatively high frequency of low magnitude shakes.

Bangladesh, along with its neighboring counties, shared the experience of extraordinary
ground shaking due to an earthquake of magnitude 8.7 which is widely known as "The Great Indian
Earthquake." The earthquake occurred due to a vertical displacement along the Dauki Fault located
near the north-east international boundary between Bangladesh and India. The earthquake caused
about 20m of pop-up of the Shillong Massive within a few seconds, and debris were blown even
miles away from the epicenter area.

A similar strong and extraordinary earthquake of magnitude 7.5 occurred in Bhuj on January
26, 2001, damaging many urban areas of Gujarat and killing an estimated 25,000 people. Scientists
consider these as rare earthquakes, but this type of earthquake could be extremely devastating in the
peripheries of the Indian peninsula.

Bangladesh occupies a greater part of the Bengal basin. It is located in the eastern extremity of
the peninsula and the Kutch basin in the western extremity is a mirror image of the Bengal basin. The
regional geological structures from south to north at both the eastern and western extremities
postulate a geometrical symmetry that would be receptive to similar tectonic behaviour in terms of
stress distribution (except for some local differential characteristics). Considering such a geological
setting, Bangladesh could be a receptive place for extraordinary earthquakes.
 The rapidly growing urban centers increase the susceptibility of earthquake damage Generally,
unplanned and populous townships are always vulnerable to earthquake hazard or damages.
Bangladesh is a densely populated country. At the beginning of the twentieth century there were only
48 urban centers in the country and at present there are 491 including the densely populated cities and
growth centers. A rapid change in infrastructure development has resulted in significant changes in
housing pattern and transportation, sewerage, water supply, waste disposal system and
communication network. All development has taken place in a very short time. The planners and city
managers could not keep pace for regulating the government's planned efforts in the face of such
rapid development. The lack of planned development puts the cities and growth centers in a
vulnerable situation for larger earthquake damages. The experts foresee the most deadly future for
Dhaka mega-city in the event of an earthquake here.

Prediction of ground conditions

The geology of Bangladesh is complex due to the presence of about 100m to 1000m
(30,000ft) of sedimentary deposits over the basement rock of Indian plate. More than 80% of the
country is covered by soft sediments (soil) or holocene deposits with unpredictable changes in the
upper 100m of deposits, having considerable variations in the constituent geological materials
and geotechnical properties. The geological map of the country indicates that the upper 10m of
sediments in about 60% of the land area is susceptible to liquefaction during earthquake, making the
ground vulnerable to immediate shear failure.

More effort is needed for building up earthquake hazard awareness

As the frequency of earthquakes is low in Bangladesh, the people and government are not
clearly aware of earthquake devastation and we can not afford any experiment with it. Building up
of public awareness could be the first and essential step towards preparedness for reduction of
earthquake damages. It is necessary to remember the alarming Dhaka Earthquake 2001, when strong
tremors were felt in the city and many people rushed out of their homes and offices in panic. 100
prison inmates were hurt in a stampede at the Dhaka Central Jail.

What shall we do?

The country has had many damaging earthquakes in the past and is placed in a high seismic
zone in the Global Seismic Hazard Map. We have not investigated the source structures, but due to its
complex geological setting, Bangladesh is not capable of sustaining the strong shaking produced in the
Himalaya and Meghalaya source area. Unfortunately, many of the infrastructures and buildings in
Bangladesh may not meet BNBC standards and may be considered vulnerable from seismic safety
viewpoint. Generally earthquake damages are irreparable. If we consider the potentiality of
earthquake disaster, we may not be able to ignore this extraordinary geological hazard.

We are at the early stage of possible earthquake hazard assessment and cannot expect any
overnight understanding of earthquake vulnerability of the country. But steps can be taken to
reduce the losses and damages by implementation of Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC) in the
construction practice, identification of appropriate subsurface geology, determining the right type of
architectural setting and engineering design of both foundation and superstructures,
development of fire safety options, keeping open spaces for rescue operations, and other such
measures.

At least we need an plan of action. There is an urgent need for reasonable seismic risk
assessment of the country. It is a multidisciplinary task and includes technical training,
institutional development, development of technical manuals, legal and enforcement aspects,
and public awareness programmes.

Dr. Aftab Alam Khan (Professor, Geology Department, Dhaka University )

Earthquake hazard : Dhaka city perspective

A sudden, transient motion or trembling in the earth's crust, resulting from the propagation
of seismic waves caused by faulting of the rocks either at shallow and/or deeper depths is known as
earthquake. The motion is caused by the quick release of slowly accumulated energy in the form of
seismic waves. The release of accumulated energy may occur at any depth and time but the
intensity of damage is directly proportional to the movement on a fault, which is a thin zone, both at
vertical and horizontal plains, of crushed rock between two blocks of rock. A fault can range in length
from a few centimeters to hundreds of kilometers. The larger the fault length, the larger the energy
release by fault movements. The ground shaking and the radiated seismic energy are caused most
commonly by sudden slip on a fault, or other sudden stress changes in the Earth. Sudden break
within the upper layers of the earth, sometimes breaking the surface, resulting in the vibration of the
ground, where strong enough will cause the collapse of buildings and destruction of life and property.
Based on long term historical records, about 18 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9 on the Richter scale) and
one great earthquake (8.0 or above) are expected in any given year globally.

Any physical phenomenon associated with an earthquake that may produce adverse effects
on human activities is termed as earthquake hazard. This includes surface faulting, ground shaking,
landslides, liquefaction, tectonic deformation, tsunami, and their effects on land use, man-made
structures, and socio-economic systems. A commonly used restricted definition of earthquake
hazard is the probability of occurrence of a specified level of ground shaking in a specified period of
time. Similarly, earthquake risk is the expected (or probable) life loss, injury, or building damage
that will happen, given the probability of earthquake hazard. Earthquake risk and earthquake
hazard are occasionally used interchangeably.

Bangladesh, by and large, is seismically active. The occurrence of earthquakes with

magnitude averaging around 5 in Richter scale is quite frequent especially in its eastern region.
Although, Dhaka has not been experienced with any moderate to large earthquake in historical past,
even then the earthquake of December 19, 2001 with magnitude of 4.5 and focal depth of 10 km
located very close to Dhaka is certainly an indication of its earthquake source and vulnerability. In
addition, micro-seismicity data also supports the existence of at least four earthquake source points
in and around Dhaka. The earthquake disaster risk index has placed Dhaka among the 20 most
vulnerable cities in the world. Dhaka with its population of around 13 million and enormous poorly
constructed and dilapidated structures signifies extremely vulnerable conditions for massive loss of
lives and property in the event of a moderately large earthquake.

The recently measured plate motions at six different sites of Bangladesh including Dhaka;
(the research being jointly conducted by Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, USA
and the Department of Geology, Dhaka University) clearly demonstrate that Dhaka is moving 30.6
mm/year in the direction northeast. Further, the rate of strain accumulation is relatively high in and
around Dhaka. It may precipitate in an earthquake of magnitude 6.8 in the event of the release of
accumulated strain. The shallow subsurface of Dhaka is also characterized by number of faults of
variable dimensions. These faults are vulnerable to motion where these coincide with the zones of high
particle velocity.

The coincidence of the zones of high particle velocity with the location of faults suggests that
the western part of Dhaka city from Mirpur-Kalyanpur to Pagla along Buriganga river and the eastern
part of Dhaka city from Uttar Khan-Badda to Demra along Balu river has emerged as high risk zone. The
peak ground acceleration in these areas has been calculated ranging between 0.3 to 0.35 if an
earthquake of magnitude 5.6 occurs in and around Dhaka city. The resonant length in these areas
suggests an optimal height beyond five stories; additional seismic factor needs to be introduced in
addition to general seismic factor which is introduced based on seismic factors of the site
specifically for earthquake resistant building code. The entire Dhaka megacity has been looked upon
from earthquake hazard point of view. It has been divided into four zones of earthquake hazard
vulnerability ranging between very high risks and low risk.

Earthquake cannot be prevented. But certainly it is high time to be much more concerned
about the probable impending earthquake in order to minimise the loss of lives and property in
national interest. On the basis of the above facts, we should develop earthquake monitoring
network in Bangladesh immediately. It is of prime importance to set a national institute of earthquake
research to develop high skilled manpower that can perform the task for earthquake risk assessment
and management. We should remember that one earthquake of moderate intensity would kill
thousands of people and destroy enormous national property. Death is certain for all human beings but
painful death is not desirable.
Figure2: Earthquake Hazard Zoning Map of Dhaka Megacity
 CHAPTER 4

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

4.1 Statistical Analysis

The objective of statistical analysis is to develop a performance score for prioritizing the
buildings in an urban area, based on a set of vulnerability indicators that can be ob¬served visually
through a street survey. Multiple linear regression analysis is employed for developing a mean-value
function that returns the expected value of the performance score. This function can be established by
using the Duzce database presented above.

Figure 3. The effect of heavy overhangs on damage distribution.

4.2MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS

A linear function is fit to the Duzce damage database for calculating the expected performance
scores (EPS) based on the presence of soft story (SS), apparent building quality (AQ), and the presence of
heavy overhangs (HO) for groups of buildings with the same number of stories. In developing the linear
regression functions, a numerical value, namely, an observed performance score (OPS), was assigned to
each building ac¬cording to its observed performance during the 1999 Duzce earthquake as given in
Table 2. The assigned OPS values for the corresponding damage states are rather subjective, indicating a
performance ranking on a normalized scale.

The mean-value function for the multi-linear regression analysis is:

E(PS \ K) is the EPS of the building with a given set of vulnerability indicators ss, aq, and ho; and β0, βSS,
βAq, and βHO are the set of coefficients that minimize the weighted least squares error, ∆2,

in which OPSi is the observed performance score and EPSi is the expected performance score of the ith
building, respectively, and n is the total number of buildings in the group.

The physical effect of the multi-linear regression of EPS on vulnerability indicators SS, AQ, and
HO can be measured by reduction of the variance of OPS, by taking into account the general trend with
the vulnerability indicators. This reduction is represented by Ang and Tang (1975).

In Equation 3, S2EPS is an unbiased estimate of the conditional variance of OPS around the mean-value
function E(PS| K), and calculated as:
where n is the total number of buildings in the group and m is the number of parameters taken into
account in the regression (Equation 1). S2OPS is an estimate of sample vari- ance of OPS, which is
calculated from

where OPS is the mean of observed OPS values for the particular building group.

A set of MATLAB routines has been programmed to perform the calculations listed in Equations
1 through 5. The set of regression coefficients calculated according to the procedure explained above
and the associated R values from Equation 3 are presented in Table 3.

The EPS for a building is then calculated from Equation 1, where β0, βSS, βAQ, and βHO are given
in Table 3 for different number of seismic stories. Note that β0 is an initial performance score for a
building with no observed vulnerabilities, and the remaining terms in Equation 1 reduce the initial score
for each indicated vulnerability: SS=ss, AQ=aq, and HO=ho. The value taken by ss is either −1 (so stor y
present) or 0 (no soft story); the value taken by aq is −1 (poor quality), 0 (moderate quality), or +1 (good
quality); and the value taken by ho is either −1 (heavy overhangs present) or 0 (no heavy overhangs).

The developed method bears some similarities with the seismic evaluation procedure proposed
in FEMA-154 (2002). However, this method provides a broader description of seismic risk for medium-
rise reinforced concrete buildings that do not conform to the requirements of modern seismic design
and construction codes. In FEMA-154, the num-ber of stories is not taken into consideration for low- to
mid-rise buildings, contrary to the experience in Turkey. Additionally, the relative scores presented here
are based on statistical analysis of field data, and thus are believed to represent the actual behavior
more accurately.
4.3 VARIATION OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE WITH PGV

The seismic performance of a structure subjected to severe ground motion can be measured by
the observed structural damage. The maximum post-yield deformation (plastic deformation, Ap)
experienced by a structure during severe earthquake ground motion can be accepted as one of the
major contributors to structural damage. Hence it can be accepted as a suitable performance parameter
in quantifying the damage, as it is zero when the structure behaves in its elastic limits and takes larger
values as the struc¬ture deforms beyond its yielding level.

Nonlinear response history analyses of SDOF systems are performed using the strong ground-
motion data described in the preceding section. The inelastic behavior is simulated by the elastoplastic
hysteretic model. At a given period of vibration, the maxi¬mum plastic deformation, Ap, of an SDOF
system is computed for a lateral elastic strength demand that is normalized by the corresponding lateral
yield strength value.

Figure 4. Spectral variation of mean plastic deformations in Groups I and IV with R.

This normalized lateral strength parameter is known as the strength reduction factor R. The
maximum plastic SDOF deformations computed in this way correspond to plastic deformation spectra
for constant strength. A total of six R values (1.5, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0) is used in these
computations.

Figure 4 presents the variation in mean Ap values with respect to the period of vi¬bration and R
factor for ground-motion data Groups I and IV. Comparison of curves for Groups I and IV indicates the
sensitivity of plastic deformations to PGV. The curves in Figure 9 also show the changes in mean plastic
deformation trend with respect to the strength reduction factor R. The mean plastic deformation values
obtained for the ground motions with larger PGV exhibit a stronger sensitivity to the R factor.
 Figure 5 shows a close-up view of mean plastic deformation variation in Group II ground
motions for periods of vibration between 0.1 and 1.0 s. The mean plastic defor¬mation values follow an
almost well defined, linear trend with respect to the R factors. The first-order polynomial fits computed
for each R value are also shown in Figure 10. Similar to the fits presented in Figure 10, mean plastic
deformation curves of other ground-motion groups are represented by linear straight lines for periods
of vibration between 0.1 and 1.0 s, and these fits yielded very high correlation coefficients with re¬spect
to the actual data trend. It should be noted that the period interval from 0.1 to 1.0 s contains a
significantly large percentage of existing building stock.

Observation of strong correlation between PGV and plastic deformation demands on structural
systems, together with the observed linear trend in mean plastic deformations with period can be
combined to derive a simplified approach for performance modifi¬cation. Taking Group I mean plastic
deformations as a base, one can compute the mean structural performance modification factors (PM)
for the other ground-motion groups. Figure 11 shows the results of such computations for Groups III and
IV by using the linear curves fitted on the exact mean plastic deformation data for periods of vibration

Figure 5. Variation in mean plastic deformation of Group II ground motions for different R
values and the first-order polynomial fits.

between 0.1 and 1.0 s. These graphics exhibit weaker strength dependency and stronger period
dependency of the plastic deformation (damage) ratios. This dependency in¬creases with increasing
PGV

Performance modification factors are calculated from Figure 11 and from similar graphical
information for Group II, for representative buildings in the Duzce database with three, four, five, and six
seismic stories. The fundamental period estimations are based on the effective period concept defined
in FEMA-356 (BSSC 2000). This refer-
 Figure 6. Mean damage amplification factors for Group III and IV ground-motion data sets
for various R values.

ence period approximately corresponds to the secant stiffness at 60% of the yielding strength of the
structure and is recommended for seismic performance-assessment pro¬cedures based on structural
deformation. The strength reduction factors are selected as three for all representative buildings, which
is thought to be reasonable for low- and medium-rise substandard concrete buildings. It also has to be
noted that the variation of PM with R is very slow for periods longer than 0.4 seconds. Effective periods
for three-to six-story concrete buildings fall into this range. The calculated performance-modification
factors are presented in Table 4.
4.4 INTENSITY-DEPENDENT EXPECTED PERFORMANCE SCORES

The β values given in Table 3 were calculated for the 1999 Düzce earthquake ground motion,
where the geometric mean value of PGV for the horizontal components was 70.6 cm/ s. Therefore, the
values in Table 3 represent the 60<PGV<80 cm/ s intensity range in Table 4. It is decided to keep the
regression coefficients βSS, βAQ, and βHO for the vulnerability indicators in Table 3 the same, but apply
the intensity scaling to the initial performance scores β0 of three-, four-, five-, and six-story buildings in
different PGV zones. A building with an “average” vulnerability is selected first from each story group.
Such an average building has a moderate apparent quality (aq=0) and a median vulnerability concerning
the presence of a soft story (ss=−1/2) and heavy overhangs (ho=−1/2).Assuming that the building
vulnerability score is correlated with the maxi-mum plastic deformation p, and using the relationship of
PGV with p presented ear-lier, the variation of vulnerability score with ground-motion intensity can be
determined. Accordingly, the expected performance score is calculated for each average building from
Table 3 and Equation 1, then this score is modified by using the proportions of performance-
modification factors in Table 4 with reference to the 60<PGV<80 cm/ s intensity range. Finally, the initial
performance scores are recalculated from the modified expected-performance scores. The results are
presented in Table 5. The co-efficients are rounded to integers for simplicity.
 CHAPTER 5

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

We choose the value of peck ground velocity (PGV) within 60< PGV<80 for this area.

For this range of PGV values, we have the value of the coefficient as below-

Initial Performance Score Vulnerability Co-efficient

Soft Story Apparent Quality Heavy overhangs

Numbers of Stories 60<PGV<80
(βSS) (βAQ) (βHO)

3 80 23 9 23
4 73 22 15 30
5&6 64 24 23 33

We also assign the following value of indicated vulnerability in the equation of expected performance
score(EPS)

* No soft story (ss) –(0) * No heavy overhangs –(0)

* Apparent quality :

Good – (+1) ;

Moderate – (0)

Poor – (-1)

* Presence of (ss) –(-1) * Presence of (ho) –(-1)

EPS = β0 + βSS(SS) + βAQ(aq) + βHO(ho) ………………….(1)

Now for the area of BUET teacher`s quarter

Building no. – 06

As this building is a 4 storied building we get the values from the above table are

β0 = 73 βSS = 22 βAQ = 15 βHO = 30

ss =0, aq = 0, ho =-1

so from eq 1, we get

EPS = β0 + βSS(SS) + βAQ(aq) + βHO(ho)

= 73+22(0)+15(0)+30(-1)

= 43

Comment : The building`s performance is at moderate (from table 2)

Building no. - 08

As this building is a 5 storied building we get the values from the above table are

β0 = 64; βSS = 24; βAQ = 23; βHO = 33

ss =0; aq = 0; ho =0

so from eq 1, we get

EPS = β0 + βSS(SS) + βAQ(aq) + βHO(ho)

= 64+24(0)+23(0)+33(0)

= 64

Comment : The building`s performance is at moderate (from table 2)

Building no. - 09

As this building is a5 storied building we get the values from the above table are

β0 = 64; βSS = 24; βAQ = 23; βHO = 33

ss =0; aq = 0; ho =-1

so from eq 1, we get

EPS = β0 + βSS(SS) + βAQ(aq) + βHO(ho)

= 64+24(0)+23(0)+33(-1)

= 31

Comment : The building is at severe risk(from table 2)

Building no. - 10

As this building is a 6 storied building we get the values from the above table are

β0 = 64; βSS = 24; βAQ = 23; βHO = 33

ss =0; aq = 0; ho =-1

so from eq 1, we get

EPS = β0 + βSS(SS) + βAQ(aq) + βHO(ho)

= 64+24(0)+23(0)+33(-1)

= 31

Comment : The building is at severe risk(from table 2)

Building no. - 30

As this building is a 4 storied building we get the values from the above table are

β0 = 73; βSS = 22; βAQ = 15; βHO = 30

ss =0; aq = 1; ho =-1

so from eq 1, we get

EPS = β0 + βSS(SS) + βAQ(aq) + βHO(ho)

= 73+22(0)+15(1)+30(-1)

= 58

Comment : The building`s performance is at moderate (from table 2)

For the chalk bazaar area

Building no. - 11

As this building is a 3 storied building we get the values from the above table are

β0 = 80; βSS = 23; βAQ = 9; βHO = 23

ss = 0; aq = -1; ho = 0

so from eq 1, we get

EPS = β0 + βSS(SS) + βAQ(aq) + βHO(ho)

= 80+23(0)+9(-1)+23(0)

= 71

Comment : The building`s performance is at moderate (from table 2)

Building no. - 18

As this building is a 4 storied building we get the values from the above table are

β0 = 73; βSS = 22; βAQ = 15; βHO = 30

ss =-1; aq = 0; ho =0

so from eq 1, we get

EPS = β0 + βSS(SS) + βAQ(aq) + βHO(ho)

= 73+22(-1)+15(0)+30(0)

= 51

Comment : The building`s performance is at moderate (from table 2)

Building no. - 22

As this building is a 3 storied building we get the values from the above table are

β0 = 80; βSS = 23; βAQ = 9; βHO = 23

ss =-1; aq = -1; ho =0

so from eq 1, we get

EPS = β0 + βSS(SS) + βAQ(aq) + βHO(ho)

= 80+23(-1)+9(-1)+23(0)

= 48

Comment : The building is at severe risk (from table 2)

Bakshi Bazaar area

Building no. - 12

As this building is a 6 storied building we get the values from the above table are

β0 = 64; βSS = 24; βAQ = 23; βHO = 33

ss =0; aq = 0; ho =-1

so from eq 1, we get

EPS = β0 + βSS(SS) + βAQ(aq) + βHO(ho)

= 64+24(0)+23(0)+33(-1)

= 31

Comment : The building is at moderate risk(from table 2)

 CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSION

A simple screening procedure for three- to six-story substandard concrete buildings, based on a sidewalk
survey of the vulnerable building stock in an urban environment, is developed in this study. The
proposed procedure is calibrated with field data collected in the region of Old Dhaka CITY. The basic
objective is to accelerate the vulnerability-assessment studies in large urban regions populated with a
very high number of vulner¬able buildings.

It has to be noted that the proposed procedure is intended to serve as an initial step for the treatment
of a large-scale epidemic, but not for detailed treatment of each indi¬vidual patient in the population at
risk.

Summary and Conclusions

This paper presents a seismic vulnerability assessment application on a regional scale. In the
introductory parts of this paper assessment methodology was summarized and in the second part the
details of the field applications were introduced and the findings were presented.

It was concluded that the sidewalk survey procedure should be complemented by PAM (preliminary
assessment methodology). In doing this, those buildings with lower performance scores should be given
priority and in the long run, the entire building stock in the region should be screened by the use of
PAM.