INVESTMENTS

IN EMERGING MARKETS
GBUS 448
Global Markets Report
November 13 November 17

LATAM Editor: EMEA Editor: ASIA Editor: Global Editor:

Thomas Payne Duy Mai Gregory Bernstein Bilal Kayani

Highlights

LATAM:
Brazilian President Michel Temer ended domestic auto production incentives as Mercosur and
the EU finalize trade talks.
Former president Sebastin Piera won the first round of the Chilean presidential election and
will go to a runoff.
Colombian YoY GDP growth for 2017 Q3 registered 2.0%, which was below market
expectations.
The IMF praises Mexicos policy framework amidst a complex environment.
Perus GDP grew 3.2% YoY in September 2017, beating market expectations.
EMEA:
Egypts debt considered 3rd riskiest after Venezuelas default
Greece offers 30bn euro debt swap ahead of planned bailout.
Polands rule of law raises concerns in the European Parliament.
Russias Sherbank posts largest ever quarterly profit.
The IMF cautions South Africas SOEs debt and the pending S&P ratings
Turkey opens investigations on former and acting U.S. attorneys.

ASIA:
China announces a slew of measures that demonstrate President Xis commitment to
controlling the countrys financial risks.
Moodys upgrades Indias sovereign rating and Modis approval rating reaches 88% according
to a new poll.
Indonesias central bank left the countrys benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%
Malaysia announces GDP year-on-year growth for Q32017 at 6.2%, beating expectations and
signaling further momentum for the countrys economy.
Philippines GDP growth beats market expectations for Q3 and President Trump affirms
friendship with controversial Duterte.
Despite continued North Korean uncertainty, South Koreas small cap index sees record
investment from overseas accounts, likely triggered by Koreas largest pension fund.
MSCI increased Taiwans index weighting this week but is unlikely to have impact as local
market are in consolidation mode.
Thailands Bank of Thailand approved five banks for mobile payment systems and the baht
reaches 30-month highs against the USD


BRAZIL
Country Analyst: Antonio Quintanilla

President Temer continues liberalization push
The Temer administration once again made their preference for a more open
economy known this week by putting incentives for domestic automotive
production on hold. The incentive program for the automobile sector, called
Rota 2030, was meant to stimulate the production of electric and hybrid vehicles in Brazil. Temers
decision comes as Mercosur and the EU advance their trade agreement negotiations. Although talks
between the two trading blocs have been taking place for over 17 years, there are signs indicating that a
final agreement may be reached in December.
Folha

Budget increase of over BRL 7 billion
The government plans to provide over BRL 7 billion in added resources to the budget. This was made
possible due to the recent increase in government revenue from the divestment of state-owned assets
and the implementation of a law allowing for the refinancing of delinquent tax debt. These measures
are estimated to bring up to BRL 14 billion in added revenue. Additionally, the administration is pushing
this initiative in order to win political support for a proposed pension reform.
Valor

Ibovespa ends week on a high note
The markets continued its volatile streak due to the uncertainty behind key reforms needed to fix the
economic crisis. Ibovespa ultimately ended the week with a high of 73,437 points, a 1.76% increase.
Favorable commodity prices, the news of the increased budget, and news of a newly proposed pension
reform allowed Ibovespa to end the week on a high note.
Valor

CHILE
Country Analyst: Chandler Payne

Piera wins first round of presidential election; goes to runoff
Former president and center-right candidate Sebastin Piera won the first
round of Chiles presidential elections on November 19, winning 37% of the vote.
As he did not win an absolute majority, he will compete in a runoff against the
second-place finisher, center-left senator Alejandro Guillier (23%), on December 17. The result was
expected by markets, but Piera underperformed his polling numbers.

Piera had, for months, commanded a strong lead in polls over Guillier, with most showing the former
president winning 40-45% of the votes. Analysts indicated prior to the first round that a margin of
victory by Piera over Guillier of 10 or less percentage points would be surmountable, and that the
center-left would be more likely to mobilize support for Guillier in the second round. However, a margin
of victory of 15 or more percentage points leave little doubt of a Piera victory in the second round.
With over 90% of votes tallied, Piera maintained a 14-percentage point lead.

Piera, the market-preferred candidate who served as President from 2010-14, has centered his
campaign on market and tax reform. He has promised to make Chile the first Latin American country to
achieve developed nation status in the OECD and to double economic growth, which has slowed
under current president Michelle Bachelets second, non-consecutive term. He has proposed corporate
tax cuts to increase investments and outlined a USD 14 billion spending plan to overhaul Bachelets tax
reform and invest in infrastructure and hospitals. Further, he hopes to revitalize Chiles pension system
by subsidizing pensions for women and the middle class and incentivizing workers to retire later. Lastly,
he hopes to remove a law stating that state copper firm Codelco transfer 10% of its export sales to the
military.

Guillier, if elected, would move to diversify Chile away from copper and decentralize decision-making in
the industry, but would maintain Bachelets reforms, increase fiscal spending on pensions, and
He also hopes to overturn the Codelco transfer requirement but keep the firm active abroad.

The outcome of the congressional elections weighs heavily on the prospect of market reform under the
likely Piera presidency. With 85% of votes tallied, the center right Chile Vamos coalition would win a
plurality of 71 of 155 seats in the restructured Chamber of Deputies while claiming a plurality of 19 of 41
seats in the Senate. The center-left Nueva Mayora coalition currently enjoys a majority in both the
Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, holding 67 of 120 seats and 21 of 38 seats, respectively. It stands
to lose seats in both.

Analysts foresee a market correction of 10-15% should Piera not win the runoff.
La Tercera Reuters Reuters Diario Financiero

Central bank maintains interest rates at 2.50%
The Chilean central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% in its November 2017
meeting, matching consensus expectations. The bank noted that the global outlook remained practically
unchanged since its last meeting and that investment remains subdued. It also took note of the
convergence of inflation in October 2017 towards its target range of 3.0%1.0%, rising from 1.5% to
1.9%, but noted that inflation will remain low in the short term. The interest rate remains at its lowest
level since 2010.
Trading Economics



COLOMBIA
Country Analyst: Rushika Shekhar

GDP Q3 YoY Growth Rate Below Market Expectations; government cuts annual
growth targets

GDP growth rate YoY for Q3 was reported at 2.0%, up from a 1.3% expansion in
the previous period but below market expectations of 2.2%. The government reduced its GDP annual
growth targets for 2017 to 1.8% in response to the smaller-than-expected Q3 expansion. Finance Minister
Mauricio Cardenas called for further interest rate cuts (currently 5.00%) to stimulate economic expansion,
despite analysts expectations that the interest rate would be held till next year.

Trading Economics Nasdaq

Finance Ministry Allows Local Brokerages to Invest Abroad
The Finance Ministry changed regulations to allow local brokerages and fiduciaries to invest in foreign
funds to diversify their portfolios. The change is part of Colombias efforts to integrate its financial market
with those of fellow Pacific Alliance members (negotiations are ongoing) - Chile, Peru and Mexico. The
ministry said that it expects authorization for Colombian investment products to be bought and sold on
the Peruvian and Mexican markets soon; products are already available in Chilean markets.
Reuters

MEXICO
Country Analyst: Jacob Haberman

IMF Releases 2017 Article IV, Praising Strong Policy Frameworks Amid a
Complex External Environment
The IMF released its yearly comprehensive report on the state of the Mexican
macro economy last week. While the Funds analysts remain optimistic about
the countrys future, they cite prolonged NAFTA-related uncertainty along with political uncertainty and
tighter monetary conditions increasingly weighing on private consumption and investment.
Furthermore, the IMF notes that while credit growth is projected to decelerate, it will remain healthy at
above 10%.

IMF

Fifth Round of NAFTA Negotiations Begins
The next round of trade talks begins this week, with wide ideological gaps on substantive parts of the
agreement. U.S., Canadian, and Mexican ministers agreed not to attend the fifth round of discussions,
likely in a move to give negotiators more space for proposals and compromise. Volatility continues to
translate into trading for the peso, as the MXN sank to an eight-month low on Wednesday, hurt by
continued concerns that U.S. demands will prove too tough for Mexico to accommodate.
CNBC

 PERU
Country Analyst: Giulia Martins

Perus GDP growth in September slightly above expectations
Perus GDP growth reached 3.18% in September, 0.03% above market
consensus. The rise can be mainly attributed to improvements in the
construction, mining and telecommunication sectors. Nevertheless, fishing and
manufacturing continued to decline for the third consecutive month. The
forecast for 2017 is currently at 3.40%, which would be 0.50% below 2016 growth.

TradingEconomics

Unemployment rate decreases to 6.2% in October
Perus unemployment rate decreased to 6.2% compared to 6.4% in September. This was the fourth
consecutive month that unemployment decreased in the country, and it is significantly below the 10-year
average of 7.9%.

TradingEconomics

Metal prices slide after increases in the beginning of the month
Nickel and Copper ended the week with losses. Nickel reached its maximum price in two years in early
November but lost some of these gains this week due to high inventory numbers from China. Copper
followed the same pattern. Metals have gained significantly in the past two months due to increased
demand from China. For example, Volkswagen just announced an investment of USD 12 billion in the
production of electric cars in Chinese territory, which will require nickel, copper and other metals.

1-Year Nickel Prices

Gestion MarketsInsider

Egypt
Country Analyst: Olivia Rockwell

S&P raised Egypts outlook to Positive
On November 10, the ratings agency upgraded the outlook from Stable to
Positive, due to increased foreign reserves and economic growth. It also
maintained the countrys credit rating at B-, citing wide fiscal and external
deficits, high public debt, and low-income levels.
Reuters



Central Bank of Egypt maintains interest rate at 18.75%, as expected
The CBE met on Thursday and held interest rate at 18.75%, the lending rate at 19.75%, and the discount
rate was 19.75%. The Bank is awaiting further declines in inflation before adjusting the interest rate lower.
It is widely expected that the trend of declining inflation will continue and the rates will be lowered in
February 2018.
Reuters

Egypts debt considered 3rd riskiest after Venezuelas default
Despite not having defaulted since its independence, investors are warily eyeing Egypts rising foreign
debt. Its credit default swap risk was highest after Venezuela, Lebanon, Ukraine. Egypts foreign debt has
risen from $55.8 billion a year ago to $78 billion today.

Bloomberg

Egypt makes deal for $3.1 billion from foreign lenders, higher than the $2 billion expected
This repurchase agreement was originally signed for $2 billion with the IMF Nov. 9, 2016, and was
extended another year and increased to $3.1 billion on Monday. Egypt owes Saudi and Gulf lenders $14
billion in debt principal and interest in 2018, but they have agreed to extend repayment on debt maturing
next year. The Central Bank and Egypts Finance Ministry insist that the countrys growing external debt
remains within safe limits. Growing investor skepticism of that position is reflected in the graph above,
considering that external debt made up 34% of GDP in June 2017 compared to only 17% of GDP in 2016,
and servicing foreign debt made up 13% of annual current receipts in 2017, up from 10% a year ago.
Bloomberg

Greece
Country Analyst: Friederike Kaiser

Greece Offers 30 Billion Euro Debt Swap Ahead of Planned Bailout
Greece is hoping to improve market liquidity ahead of the countrys planned
bailout exit by launching a debt swap of 30 billion euros. This week, private
bondholders were invited to swap 20 bonds issued in 2012 (these were offered
after a restructuring of Greek debt) for 5 new ones with longer maturities. The voluntary offer ends Nov.
28, and sources claim that the transaction is debt neutral. This marks an effort by Greece to return to
normal market financing and ease its debt burden ahead of its anticipated bailout exit in August 2018.
Analysts anticipate that a successful debt swap will allow Greece to take the next step to resume
operations in international debt markets. Greece hopes to raise 6-8 billion euros in 2-3 more bond
issuances before August, and eventually become part of the ECBs bond-buying program. S&P notes that
the swap had no immediate effect on the countrys sovereign credit rating, but Greeces borrowing costs
did dip after the swap was announced.
Seeking Alpha | New York Times | Reuters

Government to Give out 1.4 Billion Euros as a Social Dividend
The Greek government announced on Monday that I will distribute 1.4 billion euros to over 3 million
pensioners and other low-income citizens next month. Greece has extra cash since it beat its 1.75%
primary surplus target (which does not include the cost of servicing debt) this year. Analysts estimate that
Greeces primary surplus could total 3% of GDP by year end, thanks to tax revenues and social security
payments. In contrast to last year, the Greek government received approval from its creditors before it
announced the handout.
Seeking Alpha | Financial Times

European Commission Praises Greek Reforms but Competitiveness and Privatization Still Lacking
The European Commission (EC) released a 187-page report on Monday detailing Greeces compliance with
the bailout terms set by the countrys creditors. The EC lauded Greece for exceeding fiscal targets and
implementing wide-ranging structural reforms. The report noted, however, that Greeces recovery is
fragile, and continued reform momentum is necessary until the planned bailout exit in August 2018 and
thereafter. Overall, the report is optimistic and contrasts with other indicators, like the World Economic
Forums global competitiveness ranking, which show that Greeces competitive position is actually
worsening. Proceeds from Greek privatizations have also disappointed expectations.

Bloomberg

EU Auditors Report Finds that Three Greek Bailout Programs Were Limited in Their Success
The European Court of Auditors (ECA), the group responsible for assessing the EUs finances, found in a
report published Thursday that the three Greek bailout programs handled by the EU were limited in their
success. The austerity programs Greece has undergone since 2010 in exchange for over 350 billion euros
of rescue funds were successful in preventing a Greek default and encouraging reforms. However,
challenges remain in terms of Greeces ability to finance itself through international financial markets. The
ECA also criticized the design of the Greek programs, stating that the European Commission failed to
consider Greeces ability to implement the programs.
Investing.com

Poland
Country Analyst: Jackie Bakalarski

European Parliament taking action regarding concerns over Polands rule of
law
The MEP debated more this week regarding Polands right-wing leadership and
concerns over breach of law. These have been argued all year, especially
regarding the separation of judicial and executive powers. The European Parliament has power to suspend
Polands right to vote in the Council of the EU if it is found that the government is not aligned with EU
values. They have voted this week on a resolution that triggers stage one of the Article Seven procedure.
This constitutes a formal warning to Poland on ensuring separation of powers and reduction of policies
against human rights. Many in Poland feel unfairly targeted and argue they should be able to carry out
their own government and democracy independently.
thenews.pl | thenews.pl

Protests from white supremacists overwhelm March of Independence in Warsaw
Polish independence day received lots of Western news coverage last week due to the large marches and
protests in Warsaw. Many different groups on the right marched, more emboldened by the success of
Polands Law and Justice ruling party. Although the groups are incredibly politically varied and not all even
identified with the right, they mostly agree on stances regarding anti-immigration, especially from Islamic
countries, and a resistance to the liberal culture of Western Europe. Interestingly, it's not just skinheads
or neo-Nazis as was expected in the past, but many young people, including lots of females, are joining
these protests. There is the theory that many young Poles return from the UK and other Western EU
countries with reinforced conservative values and fears about immigrants replacing the white majority.
Increasing social unrest has heightened nerves in the rest of the EU regarding Poland, and is probably
partly responsible for the triggering of the Article Seven resolution in the MEP. 60,000 people took part in
the march but it is unclear how many were demonstrating for right-wing values versus marching to
celebrate independence.
The Guardian | CNN

Poland continues to invest in defense and work with US on NATO commitments
Poland has committed to buying updated missiles and missile radar technology to intercept both missiles
and unmanned aerial vehicles. They have been investing more in defense since Russias 2014 annexation
of Crimea, although this spending increase could also be correlated to PiSs election and leadership of the
country. Poland is one of the few NATO members spending the required 2% of GDP on defense and has
very friendly relations with President Trump following his July visit to the country. They have committed
to buying these Patriot missile systems from Raytheon for $10.5B, assuming US Congressional approval.
They have also committed to spending 2.5% of GDP on defense by 2030.
Financial Times

Additional tension between France and Poland regarding low-cost policies
Tensions between Poland and France rises this week. The said controversy concerns the use of EU
subsidies, which Macron argues some countries use to hold down tax rates and engage in unfair labor and
tax competition with other EU countries. Structural funds are being used to maintain low costs and
engage in tax competition, we have to rediscover some consistency, Macron said at a press conference
Friday. I hope the next budget talks will apply some social criteria. These refereed budget talks do not
complete until 2020, but Macron is asking for financial punishments on EU countries who engage in these
tax arbitrage policies using EU funds. This is primarily a politically theatrical directive to placate French
constituents whom supported the populist candidate Marine Le Pen. Macron hopes to increase the social
safety net across all of Europe and reduce competition for jobs for these constituents. Closer integration
in the EU regarding budget and labor policies will put pressure on countries like Poland to join the Euro,
something they are currently opposed, but still in deliberation.
Bloomberg

Russian Federation
Country Analyst: Johnny Kim

Sberbank posts largest-ever quarterly profit
Sberbank, Russias largest lender whose financial performance is often used by
investors as a proxy for the countrys overall economic health, surpassed
market estimates on Wednesday with its largest-ever quarterly profit of Rbs
224.1bn ($3.7bn). These positive results were driven by individual loan growth
and improved macroeconomic conditions. Throughout the quarter, its total loan book value rose 2.1%
year-on-year, with loans to individuals rising 7.7%. This record profit is 20.7% higher than last quarter,
63.6% higher than the same quarter last year, and 18.0% above market expectations of Rbs 189.8bn.
Furthermore, this quarters record is Sberbanks third consecutive record result and the fifth time in the
past seven quarters it has exceeded its previous best.
Financial Times

Russia to restructure $3.15bn of Venezuelan debt held by Moscow
On Wednesday, Russia agreed to restructure more than $3bn worth of Russian-held Venezuelan debt,
underscoring Russias role as the struggling administrations main foreign backer. Earlier this week,
Venezuela suffered what is expected to be the first of many defaults on more than $60bn of international
bonds. The debt relief provided by Russia will increase the chances of all creditors to return loans granted
to Venezuela. According to Venezuelas agriculture minister, the deal would also facilitate increased trade
ties with Russia.
Financial Times | Financial Times

Russias economic growth rate falls to 1.8% in Q3
Russias economy grew 1.8% in Q3 compared to the same period last year, an expansion that is close to
potential according to Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina. This growth rate is lower than the 2.5% growth
rate from the previous quarter. Monthly data suggests that this slowdown from Q2 to Q3 was largely due
to weaker growth in industrial production. Industrial production slowed to 1.2% year-on-year in Q3 from
3.8% in Q2.
Financial Times | TASS


South Africa
Country Analyst: Arjun Krishnan

IMF Bearish on Pending S&P and Moodys Review (November 24); Banks
Bracing for Downgrade
The IMF said South Africa will face greater fiscal difficulties and higher financing
costs if the country is unable to curb state-owned companies debt and if the
nations local debt is downgraded to junk status. Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. and South African Airways are
the two state-owned companies that pose the biggest risk of continuing to demand large amounts of state
support. Last month, the National Treasury halved its economic growth forecast for the year to 0.7 percent
and predicted rising debt, both of which threaten to trigger a downgrade of rand-denominated securities
to junk by S&P and Moodys (Fitch already assesses the local-currency debt as sub-investment grade).
Moodys and S&P will review their readings and make an announcement on November 24. A change in
either of the evaluations could result in South Africa being removed from some indices tracked by global
investors, triggering outflows and pushing up borrowing costs. FirstRand, among other South African
banks, are taking steps to prepare. Last month, the bank offered to buy all of the U.K.s Aldermore Group
Plc in order to create a platform to source offshore funding and earn income in a non-rand currency.


Bloomberg | Bloomberg

Factions Threatening ANC Leadership Conference Plans
South Africas ruling ANC party is battling to calm internal divisions threatening to disrupt preparations
for its national conference next month as factions engage in a fight over who will replace President Zuma.
The ANCs National Exec. Committee decided to confirm the leadership of the Eastern Cape after a
disputed conference in that region in September. This is seen as a boost to Deputy President Ramaphosas
chances, as the provinces executive supports his bid. There have also been complaints of violence in this
province, which a team of national leaders will be named to investigate, over concerns that these disputes
will delay the current plans for the Dec. 16-20 conference. Postponing the conference would leave Zuma
as ANC president at a time where his administration has been heavily plagued by scandals and increased
concern amongst investors who seek clarity over South Africas political situation. This could further
increase the chances of a sell-off of the rand and the nations bonds, in addition to further credit
downgrades.
Bloomberg

South Africa Holds Largest Bond Auction Yet
On October 24, Finance Minister Gigaba announced that the government will need to raise 122b rand
($8.4b) over the next three years to plug a fiscal shortfall. That would mean increasing the volume of notes
offered at the weekly fixed-rate auction to 3.3b rand going forward, as opposed to the previous total of
2.65b rand. 10-year yields jumped to their highest since 2016 after head of the Treasurys budget office,
Michael Sachs, resigned amid speculation that President Zuma will override the Treasury to implement a
costly plan for free university education.

Bloomberg

Turkey
Country Analyst: Duy Mai

Turkey opens investigations on former and acting U.S. attorneys
Turkish officials have accused former U.S. attorney Preet Bharara of
orchestrating a politically motivated case against Turkish gold trader Reza
Zarrab for violating U.S. sanctions on Iran. Bhararas successor, Joon H. Kim, is
also reportedly included in the probe. Istanbul prosecutors claim that the sources of documents and
wiretaps used in Zarrab case were unknown and violated international as well as domestic law. This
development, once again, raised the tensions between Ankara and Washington, even when the visa spat
has not completely subsided.
Washington Post

Turkey is expected to invest 141b in energy by 2025
According to the energy outlook report by the Greece-based Institute of Energy for South East Europe
(IENE), Turkey is expected to invest 141b euros in the energy sector by 2025. The report, covering 13
countries in the region, also indicates that Turkey is the leader in shaping the regions final energy
demand. Turkeys energy demand is forecasted to rise from 52 in 2020 to 60% in 2025, while production
is forecasted to account for 45% of Southeastern total production in 2050. Turkey is expected to invest
124.9b to energy in the worst-case scenario, and 141b euros in the best-case scenario. By contrast, Turkey
is followed by Greece, whom plans to spend 23.3b and 30.2b euros in the two scenarios respectively. The
report offers quantitative insights into Ankaras strategic positionings on the energy sector. This story
also follows the report on President Erdogan meeting with Elon Musk last week, discussing potential
cooperation and investments in Turkey.
Daily Sabah

The Turkish central bank to launch lira-settled auctions
TCMB announces lira-settled forward foreign exchange auctions on November 18th. The maximum total
amount of foreign exchange is 3 billion USD. The sales is aimed at boosting Turkeys FX liquidity and further
combats depreciating lira, which is currently roughly 30% overvalued. This move was announced right
after the lira peaked 3.90 against the dollar on November 14th, the highest in the liras history.

TCMB | Trading Economics

CHINA
Country Analyst: Kartik Vadlapatla

China announces new controls on asset management products
President Xi Jinping and his top economic deputies have vowed to make
controlling financial risks their foremost priority, a pledge renewed at the
Communist Partys twice-a-decade leadership congress last month. Since
April, regulators have stepped up efforts to curb the threat that excessive
leverage in the financial system poses to economic growth (see graphic). Institutions will be required to
set aside risk provisions equivalent to 10 percent of the management fees, they said. The new rules will
be applied to the 29 trillion yuan ($4.4 trillion) of wealth-management products issued by banks, 17.5
trillion yuan of trust products, as well as asset-management plans sold by insurers, fund-managers, and
brokerages. Henceforth, firms will issue products with yields based on inherent risk and return rather
than guaranteeing a payment or a specific return. The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) also announced a
slew of measures, including a minimum maturity for certain products, fee guidance, capping leverage,
reducing intermediation and cross-investments between firms. The draft rules were released for public
consultation and firms will be given a grace period until June 30, 2019, to comply.


Bloomberg

Prudent and Neutral Monetary Policy
The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) seeks an optimal environment to help stabilize economic growth,
while facilitating deleveraging, curbing bubbles and preventing risks, according to a quarterly report
on monetary policy implementation released late Friday in Beijing. The document, mainly a review of
policy conducted in the third quarter, also said the central bank aims to deepen reform in interest-rate
and foreign-exchange markets. Commenting on the yuan, the PBOC said the flexibility of the exchange
rate has improved. The PBOC also commented that the supply and demand for the currency is now
more balanced. As a result, it is necessary to neutralize the counter-cyclical measures that are aimed
at smoothing out volatility. The quarterly report follows losses in Chinese bonds (along with other
emerging market bonds) in recent days amid signs of quickening inflation and concern that Beijing will
intensify the deleveraging campaign. However, the PBOC has mentioned the need to maintain stable
funding through the transition (seen through the introduction of a 63-day reverse-repo). The PBOC has
also identified the need to deflate the various asset bubbles, removal of zombie firms, promote debt to
equity conversions, and reduce leverage in state-owned enterprises as other critical priorities.

Bloomberg


 Shanghai Pharma purchased Cardinal China Unit
In a statement, Hong Kong-listed Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co. said Wednesday it would
acquire Cardinal Health China for $557 million after the exclusion of debt and other accounting
adjustments. It put the base payment figure at $1.2 billion. Cardinal China has taken a hit from a drop
in generic-drug prices this year and was finding it challenging to build scale to maintain its foothold in
China.
The deal comes as Chinese regulators look to tighten oversight of the countrys fast-growing
pharmaceutical industry. In February, Beijing unveiled plans to overhaul the sector, including asking
state agencies to encourage consolidation of drug manufacturers and distributors, according to an
article published by corporate law firm Sidley Austin LLP. These rules also call for licensing of medical
representatives and contain guidance on drug price at launch.
WSJ

Amazon Web Services sells hardware to Chinese partner
Amazon on Tuesday said it had sold computing equipment used for its cloud services in China to its local
partner, Beijing Sinnet Technology Co. Amazon said it took this step to meet new Chinese regulations.
Early this year, Chinas Ministry of Industry and Information Technology informed foreign companies
with cloud ventures that by the year-end they should apply for new operating licenses. Late last year,
Chinas MIIT also issued draft measures calling for tighter technical cooperation between foreign cloud
operators and their local partners. Citic Securities said in a note Tuesday that Amazons deal with Sinnet
could thus clear the final obstacles for AWS to get such licenses. These rules have impacted companies
such as Apple and its Chinese customers data is now backed up on a local partners servers maintained
on the Chinese mainland with government access allowed.
In China, AWS faces strong local competition in the form of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and China
Telecom Corp. Alibabas cloud unit held 40% of the countrys cloud infrastructure-as-a-service market,
according to International Data Corp. research. Microsoft Corp., the most significant foreign provider in
China, had 5%, while AWS has 3.8%. Still, Chinas market is in its nascent stage, and it is too early to
crown industry champions, said Kevin Ji, a research director at Gartner, an industry research firm.
WSJ

INDIA
Country Analyst: Jason Yoo

Moodys Upgrades Indias Sovereign Rating to Baa2
Moodys upgraded Indias local and foreign currency issuer ratings to Baa2
from Baa3 and changed its outlook from Positive to Stable. The ratings
agency last modified Indias rating in 2004, when it upgraded the countrys
rating to Baa3. The latest upgrade serves as a vindication for Modis
administration and its recent initiatives; Moodys cited as positive mid-to-long-term factors the new
GST, the stronger monetary policy framework, last years demonetization, as well as government-led
efforts to alleviate the heavy NPA load of Indian banks. Moodys also stated that it believes that India
can now better withstand shocks, primarily due to recent fiscal consolidation and government revenue
expansion initiatives.
Moodys



CPI and WPI Growth at 3.58% and 3.59%, Respectively
Consumer price inflation in October rose 3.58% year-over-year, which represents the fastest inflation
growth rate in seven months; inflation rose 3.28% year-over-year in September. Similarly, wholesale
price inflation grew at a faster pace year-over-year in October at 3.59%, compared to Septembers
2.60%. Rising food as well as crude prices contributed to the higher inflation growth. Although still
below the MPCs stated inflation target of 4.00%, the uptick in inflation will most likely lead the RBI not
to raise rates in December and, instead, wait for more economic data. The markets reacted to the
inflation results by sending Indian 10-year bond yields to 7.05% on Tuesday, which is a high last reached
on September 2016.
LiveMint, LiveMint, LiveMint

India, Australia, the U.S. and Japan Hold First Quadrilateral Meeting
High-ranking officials from India, Australia, the U.S. and Japan met on November 12th, 2017 in Manila,
Philippines in what represents the first Quadrilateral meeting between the four nations. The talks were
ostensibly targeted at China and its recent encroachment on neighboring territories, either directly (e.g.
claiming land in the South China Sea) or more subtly (e.g. One-Belt-One-Road). Japanese PM Abe
claimed that the four countries discussed measures to ensure a free and open international order
based on the rule of law in the Indo-Pacific. Abe first floated the idea of the Quadrilateral during 2006-
2007, but it has been held off since then for various reasonsChinas disapproval being one of the
primary ones. After the meeting, Modi stated that the cooperation between India and the US can rise
beyond bilateral cooperation and both countries can work for the future of Asia and the world. In
response, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman stated that the relevant proposals should be open
and inclusive and should be conducive to win-win cooperation and avoid politicizing or excluding the
relevant parties. The growing Indo-U.S. geopolitical relation may have positive spillovers into economic
partnerships, as India increasingly becomes a strategic linchpin for U.S. in containing Chinas growing
dominance in the region.
The Economic Times, LiveMint

Government Establishes Framework to Ensure Flow of GST Benefits to Consumers
In order to ensure that the benefits of input tax credits and reduced GST rates on goods and services are
passed down from businesses to consumers, Indias Union Cabinet approved the establishment of the
National Anti-Profiteering Authority. Under this new institutional framework, if consumers feel that the
full benefits of the GST are not being transferred from businesses to consumers, they can file a report to
the state-level screening committee, which would investigate the report. Depending on the legitimacy of
the complaint, the screening committee can accordingly escalate the report. The move reflects the
governments desire to ensure that consumers enjoy the benefits of the new GST.
LiveMint



Trade Deficit Widens in October
Exports decreased 1.1% in October year-over-year, while imports increased 7.6%. The decline and
growth in exports and imports, respectively, led Indias trade deficit for October to reach $14 billion,
representing the largest deficit since November 2014. The increased trade deficit reflects disruptions to
exporters due to the GST, as well higher oil prices inflating import figures.
The Economic Times

India May Take a More Gradual Path to Fiscal Consolidation
Although Finance Minister Jaitley expects India to stick to its target fiscal budget deficit for this current
fiscal year, he suggested that Indias path to fiscal consolidation may be more gradual than the
ambitious goals stated in the FY2017-18 fiscal policy report. Currently, the government has set a target
fiscal deficit of 3.0% for FY2018-19, which will, if according to plan, come down to 2.5% by FY2022-23.
Jaitley stated that challenges arising from structural reforms could change the glide path. The
announcement may signal that the government will set a higher fiscal deficit target for next year in
order to boost economic growth and social program spending to win further support for the next
general election in 2019.
LiveMint

Modis Rating Reaches 88% According to Surveys
According to a research done by Pew Research Center, approximately 88% of Indians surveyed thus far
in the sixteen most populous states hold a favorable opinion of Modi. Of those surveyed, 69% of Indians
expressed a very favorable opinion of him. The figures, which reflect results from surveys taken between
February and March of this year, bode well for Modi, who is looking for a second term in the 2019
general election.
LiveMint


INDONESIA
Country Analyst: Katrina Knisely

Bank Indonesia holds key rate at 4.25% in November meeting

In line with expectations, the Board of Governors of Bank Indonesia (the
central bank of Indonesia) left the benchmark interest rate unchanged on
Thursday. For the second straight month, the seven-day reverse repurchase
rate was kept at 4.25% after two back-to-back cuts in August and September. In a statement, Bank
Indonesia said that the rate decision was consistent with its efforts to maintain economic and financial
stability and that domestic inflation can be kept well within its target range, while maintaining a
manageable current account deficit. Also taken into consideration were economic dynamics such as the
tightening of monetary policy in several advanced countries and sluggish growth in domestic household
consumption. While the rupiah has remained under pressure amid broad US dollar strength, the rate
decision did manage to give the rupiah some support.
Bank Indonesia

Indonesia signs billion-dollar loan agreement with Japan for port construction
The Indonesian government has signed a loan agreement with the Japan International Cooperation
Agency (JICA) to borrow approximately USD $1.04 billion for construction of the Patimban Deep Seaport
in West Java. The 40-year loan carries a 0.1% interest rate and a 12-year grace period. Construction on
the port is expected to begin in April 2018. The project is expected to boost export and import activities
in the area because large ships will be able to be docked there directly.
Jakarta Post

Indonesia threatens to ban social media platforms unless they block obscene content
Indonesian Communications Minister Rudiantara has put the worlds largest social media companies on
notice, warning that Twitter, Google, Facebook, and a host of others would face serious consequences if
they do not adhere to government requests to filter content deemed as obscene. The government of
the worlds four-largest country has grown increasingly concerned about platforms use to spread
terrorism and racial violence, as well as pornography and child abuse. There is limited public information
from companies about how they will handle the threat, but they are expected to cooperate rather than
be banned altogether.
Bloomberg

MALAYSIA
Country Analyst: Gregory Bernstein

Malaysian GDP expands at its fastest pace in the last three years; Malaysian
ringgit races to one-year high against USD
Supported most significantly by strong domestic demand and the
manufacturing sector, Malaysias GDP was reported at 6.2% year-on-year
growth in the third quarter of 2017, beating most analyst forecast of 5.8% and
was the fastest pace recorded the past three years. In addition to the aforementioned factors,
Malaysias central bank Bank Negara Malaysia announced that the country was experiencing strong
expansion in all economic sectors: services, manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and construction. While
the countrys palm oil industry continues to feel the effects of the global oil price downturn and demand
for Malaysias primary commodity remains shaky, BNMs governor Muhammad Ibrahim noted that the
economy is back on track to record between 5.2% to 5.7% for 2017. The good news has caught the
attention of analysts and foreign investors alike as both continue to laud the ringgits continued
improvement against the U.S. dollar, driving further speculation about the central banks hint of a rate
hike in the near term.

Malaysian GDP growth gaining momentum; one-year (left), three-year (right)

As the Malaysian economy continues its rally, so too has the countrys currency. It was reported this
week the ringgit reached a one-year high at 4.1563 against the U.S. dollar. There is wide speculation that
there may still be runway left for the ringgits appreciation. According to Ibrahim, "ringgit levels are a
reflection of our economic strength, and there is more liquidity in the market now and it is not
influenced by speculative flows anymore. With the forecast-beating growth supporting the case for a
rate hike in 2018, both the economy and the ringgits strength may be more sustainable than previously
expected.

Bloomberg, Malaysian Insight, BNM, Trading Economics, Channel News Asia, Reuters, Bloomberg

Malaysian leaders continue to pressure on EU regulatory commissions regarding palm oil restrictions
As Prime Minister Najib meets with his Indonesian counterpart, Joko Widodo, this week, high on the list
of topics will be a discussion on future strategy for regional exports of palm oil. As both countries still
rely on the commodity as a primary export, there remains a concern that European Unions regulation
on its imports will cap the oils long-term viability as an economy staple. In April, the EU announced
policy that would limit the type of imported palm oil and would seek to only import palm oil that is
sustainably produced. Malaysian Minister for Plantation Industries and Commodities Mah Siew Keong
announced this week that he would be meeting with 16 EU representatives this month to argue for the
palm oil industrys importance and that the commoditys supposed deleterious effect on the
environment has been used to malign the industry. As both Malaysia and Indonesia look to play a
prominent role in the implantation of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans
Pacific Partnership, palm oil is likely to factor in significantly as the countries combined produce more
than 80% of the worlds palm oil.
Channel News Asia, NST, Bloomberg


Malaysias central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia, acknowledges housing glut as a significant inhibitor
for the economys long-term growth
Bank Negara Malaysia warned this week that the number of unsold homes throughout the country
could be a symptom of a much larger problem. The bank reported that unsold residential properties are
at decade highs and the majority of which are priced well above the purchasing power of the Malaysian
consumer. According to BNM, there were 130,690 unsold units at the end of March this year, with 83
per cent priced at above RM250,000. Although this type of news may not be considered significant in
other global markets, Malaysia continues to struggle with high levels of household debt. As a result,
what would seem to be affordably priced homes remain vacant. The issue has evolved into a national
problem as PM Najibs budget proposed a RM2.2 billion allocations to build 248,000 more affordable
houses.
Malaysia Today

After APEC/ASEAN, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans Pacific Partnership
(CPTPP) picks up steam and Malaysia is onboard
At the end of last weeks meetings, there was continued speculation that the left-for-dead Trans Pacific
Partnership may see new life. This week, we continued to see significant progress that the trade deals
revival, now known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans Pacific Partnership,
could become a reality. As reported, the U.S. will not be included in the new deal but the remaining
members, including Malaysia, have signaled that they intend to implement it nonetheless. Although the
finer points need to be massaged (including Malaysias demands for more time to adjust for its state-
owned enterprises), Japan urged its regional partners to take action and seek to ratify the new
agreement before next years elections. Although Malaysia was not mentioned specifically, Japans
Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi was clear that the uncertainty of 2018s election cycle should
weigh heavily on the minds of CPTPP member states if they are serious about solidifying the Partnership.

Bloomberg, The Economist


 PHILIPPINES
Country Analyst: Bilal Kayani

GDP beats forecasts; expands by 6.9%.
Manufacturing, trade, real estate, renting and business activities were the
main driver of growth in Q3. Industrials recorded the fastest growth at 7.5%
followed by services at 7.1 percent, helping reach a solid 6.9% growth rate for
the July-September period. This growth was higher than the upwardly
revised 6.7 percent logged in the Q2 and above the 6.5-5.7% estimate by market analysts. However, Q3
GDP was slower than the lofty 7.1% growth recorded in the same period last year. Analysts expect
further growth with the upper limit of 7.5% to help keep the Philippines as one of the best performing
economies in Asia. The Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) expects a pick-up in household
consumption in the last quarter of the year due to the holiday season and with the governments plan to
spend approximately $16.6 billion infrastructure under their Build, Build, Build program the economy
will continue its steady upward trajectory.
Bloomberg Philstar

Trading Economics

Debt-to-GDP ratio declines to 41.7% in Q3.
The Philippines Department of Finance (DOF) reported the national governments debt as a percentage
of GDP declined in Q3 because of the faster than expected economic growth. DOFs debt-to-GDP was
reported at 41.7% in Q3; down from 42.4 percent in Q2. The countrys budgetary department foresees
a new record low by the end of 2017 at 40.76% and in the medium-term project debtto-GDP to further
slide to 37.7% by 2020. Furthermore, government domestic debt fell to 27.1% of GDP from 27.7% and
the external debt decreased to 14% from 14.8%. Lastly, Q3 share of combined tax and non-tax revenues
improved to 16.4% from 16.3% in Q2.
Manila Times Philstar

BSP set to adopt the branch-lite concept as part of efforts to promote financial inclusion.
BSP Deputy Governor Chuchi Fonacier said the new concept would help banks be more responsive to
the changing preferences of financial consumers and market conditions. The central bank currently
allows banks to set up branches, other banking offices, and microfinance units, subject to capital and
documentary requirements. Despite the increase in the number of branches, the central bank said
there are 571 municipalities in the Philippines that remain underserved. To address this issue, the BSP
will issue guidelines on basic deposit accounts for those who are still unable to open a regular savings
account because of the cost involved and difficulty in complying with documentary requirements.
Manila Times Philstar

Trump touts great relationship with Philippines President Duterte.
During President Trumps tour of Asia, he emphasized his great relationship with Filipino leader
Rodrigo Duterte. The two leaders seemed to have warmed up to each other after meeting for the first
time at Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group meeting in Vietnam. Many US politicians had strongly
urged Trump to confront Duterte on the bloody drug war; however, Trump has generally avoided
publicly admonishing Duterte and other foreign leaders for human rights abuses and has even shown an
affinity for leaders with oppressive tendencies. The US President has previously praised Dutertes
bloody crackdown on drug dealers, saying he was doing an unbelievable job on the drug problem.
Guardian Philstar


SOUTH KOREA
Country Analyst: Beatrice Gohdes

As South Koreas currency appreciates, regional competitors benefit
South Koreas Won has appreciated almost 4% against the Greenback in the
past three months, more than any other currency. In addition, it also trades
at a 12-month high against the Taiwan Dollar, making Taiwanese exports
more competitive. Most products sold by the major exporters in the region,
Japan, Korea and Taiwan, are important competitors on international markets. This leads to the
countries closely watching each others currency developments, and making sure to not appreciate too
much in relation to the others, as they risk to lose out on business. The surge in the Won thus has
analysts in Taibei wondering if Seoul has lost its grip on the currency.

Bloomberg Markets

Housing prices in Seoul reach New York City levels, surpassing Tokyo
While the government and central bank worry about the high levels of household debts, which stands at
153% of disposable income, purchasing a home in South Koreas capital reaches new highs. The National
Assembly Research Service reports that purchasing a home in Seoul is more expensive than in Tokyo,
and is roughly at the level of New York City. As Average income levels in Korea are much lower than in
both those cities though, it takes Koreans roughly 9.2 years to purchase a home, while it takes New
Yorkers only 5.7 years.
Korea Herald

South Koreas Fair Trade Commission starts looking into chaebols charities
As a new sign that the anti-corruption campaign promised by the new government under President
Moon is picking up speed, the Fair Trade Commission is not looking into the conglomerates charitable
foundations. It is suspected, that the founding families used their foundations to evade billions of dollars
in taxes, while not using nearly enough of their funds supporting charitable causes last year, it was
only 4.9%. Even though officially independent, the foundations are mostly run by members of the
founding families, and the assets are mostly in voting-rights stocks of the chaebols. This closely knitted
web is now under scrutiny, in a bid to break the power of the elite that helped build Korea since the 70s,
but which are believed to have exploited their power too excessively.
Bloomberg Businessweek

Small-Cap stock index rallies as foreign investments hit record high
Overseas investors seemingly cant get enough of South Koreas small-cap index Kosdaq, which is seeing
record inflows of foreign investments, hitting $191 million this month. This appetite has probably been
triggered by Koreas largest pension fund, which is looking to add some companies listed on the index to
its portfolio. This is good news for a country that gets 80% of its GDP from the largest 12 chaebols,
Koreas industrial conglomerates embroiled in corruption allegations and restructuring efforts.
Bloomberg Markets

TAIWAN
Country Analyst: Nikunj Beria

MSCI weighting increases of Taiwan, but boost to market unlikely
MSCI increased Taiwans weighting in Emerging Markets section by 0.08
percentage points which is the highest among all the countries in the Index.
However, this increase did not result in higher confidence since the local
market in Taiwan (TAIEX) is in consolidation mode. The large-cap stocks in
TAIEX have higher valuations and the investors have moved to the sell side therefore the market has
dropped and unaffected by the MSCI increase in Taiwans weight in the Index.
Focus Taiwan

Taiwans trade surplus for October 2017 lower than expectations
Trade surplus in October was expected at 6.03 billion, however, it closed at 5.20 billion. Exports went up
by 3% at 27.54 billion mainly in machinery (16%), parts of electronic products (10.6%) to regions like
Europe (7.1%) and China (4.9%). Imports were up by 0.1% at 22.34 billion for base metals (16%) and
parts of electronic products (14.2%) mainly from China.


Trading Economics

Foxconn recorded a 39% drop in profits in Q3
Foxconn (Hon Hai precision industry) recorded a 39% fall in profits in Q3, resulting in their shares dropping
by 3% on Wednesday. This was mainly due to the manufacturing and supply challenges for the iPhone X
in September. However, next quarter might be better since iPhone X supplies have exceeded expectations
which will be recorded in Q4.
Financial Times

THAILAND
Country Analyst: Christian Conroy

Thai Baht Surges to 30-month High
The baht reached a 30-month high on Thursday, rising to 32.95 against the US
dollar. According to Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob, the
latest growth in a currency that has risen by more than 8% against the dollar
this year is the result of a US dollar that has depreciated against every currency due to global
uncertainty surrounding the US tax reform plan. While accelerated appreciation of the baht has
prompted the Bank of Thailand to intervene in the past in order to manage capital flows, the Bank has
thus far held firm on its position that the strength of other economic indicators supports confidence in
the growing Thai economy and shows that an intervention is not merited at this time.

Bangkok Post

Bank of Thailand Approves Five Banks for Mobile Payment Systems
The Bank of Thailand on Nov 13th provided permission to five financial institutions KASIKORNBANK,
Siam Commercial Bank, Krungthai Bank, Bangkok Bank, and Government Saving Bank to provide QR
code payment services through the PromptPay system. Given that many companies hold accounts with
multiple banks, the approval is expected to create more efficient cash management processes for
business. The announcement comes after a prolonged period in which the Bank of Thailand allowed
eight financial institutions to test the mobile payment system through the Banks regulatory sandbox.
To qualify for permission, financial institutions must meet criteria set by the Bank, including the
readiness and robustness of the IT system, risk management, consumer protection, security, as well as
related operations in their branches and call centers.
Bank of Thailand

Ministry of Finance Announced Lower Seed Funding Requirements for SET
Responding to pressure from officials of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), the Thai Ministry of
Finance on Tuesday lowered the SET seed funding requirement to 5.7 billion baht ($173.5 million) with
an annual contribution of at least 90% of net profit after deducting investment to the Capital Market
Development Fund (CMDF). The SET board of governors opposed the previous rules that set the seed
funding requirement at 8 billion baht ($243.5 million) with 90% of net annual profit being contributed to
CMDF because they claimed the exchange then would not have enough capital to finance the trading
system. Speaking at a public hearing, Tisco Securities chief executive Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn and
former SET executive vice-president Sopawadee Lertmanaschai stressed that requiring an annual
contribution at any rate above 50% would not provide the exchange with enough money to finance
future development. The SET board of governors went even further, rejecting the need for two
requirements on the basis that the seed funding requirement would be enough and that the annual
contribution was unnecessary. While the SET board of governors had initially pushed for a 4.5 billion
baht ($136.9) seed funding requirement without annual contribution requirements, they have signaled
satisfaction with the Ministry of Finances latest adjustment as it will provide the exchange sufficient
capital to finance future expansion.
Bangkok Post

Thai National Legislative Assembly Passes Legislation Defining Public Debt
On Thursday, the Thai National Legislative Assembly (NLA) passed legislation that defined public debt as
that borrowed by the Ministry of Finance, governmental organizations, state enterprises, and other
debts guaranteed by the Ministry of Finance. The legislation notably excludes debts of the Bank of
Thailand and those state enterprises involved in lending, managing assets, and guaranteeing loans from
the definition of public debt. As part of the legislation, the Ministry of Finance will incept a national
policy committee on public debt management that will include the permanent secretary for finance, as
well as chiefs of the National Economic and Social Development Board, Budget Bureau, Comptroller-
Generals Department, Fiscal Policy Office, and Bank of Thailand. Proponents of the legislation say that
the adjustment of the public debt definition and establishment of the policy committee will enable the
government to invest more efficiently in assets and cultivate a stronger domestic bond market.
The Nation | Bangkok Post




 Appendix: Macroeconomic Overview








LATAM
Indicator Latest (Dto previous) Reference Period Frequency
Brazil
GDP Growth 0.2% (-0.8%) Sep 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 2.70% (0.16%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 7.5% (-0.75%) Oct 2017 (9th cut this year)
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 69.5% (6.2%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -9.0% (+1.2%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -1.3% (2.0%) Dec 2016 Annual
Chile
GDP Growth 0.9% (0.8%) Jun 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 1.90% (-0.40%) Sep 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 2.50% (unch) Sep 2017 Monthly
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 21.3% (3.9%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.2% (-0.6%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -1.4% (0.6%) Dec 2016 Annual
Colombia
GDP Growth 2.0% (0.7%) Sep 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 4.05% (0.08%) Sep 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 5.00% (-0.25%) Oct 2017 Last lowered Aug 2017
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 47.6% (-3.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.8% (-0.7%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -4.4% (2.0%) Dec 2016 Annual
Peru
GDP Growth 3.2% (+0.9%) Sep 2017 Monthly
Inflation Rate 2.04% (-0.25%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 3.25% (-0.25%) Sep 2017 Monthly
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 25.6% (2.6%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.6% (-0.5%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -2.8% (1.6%) Dec 2016 Annual
Mexico
GDP Growth 1.8% (-1.0%) Q2'2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 6.37% (-0.2%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 7.0% (unch) Sep 2017 ~Monthly
 Debt-to-GDP Ratio 58.5% (4.8%) Dec 2016 Annually
Fiscal Balance -2.9% (1.2%) 2016 Annual
CA Balance -2.7% (+0.1%) Dec 2016 Annual

EMEA
Indicator Latest (D to Reference Period Frequency
previous)
Egypt
GDP Growth Rate 4.1% (+0.7%) Oct 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 30.8% (-0.8%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 18.75% (unch) Oct 2017 Daily
Debt-to-GDP 92.3% (+7.3%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -5.9% (-2.3%) Oct 2017 Annual
Fiscal Balance -9.8% (+1.8%) Dec 2016 Annual
Greece
GDP Growth Rate 0.5% (unch) Sep 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 0.7% (-0.3%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 0% (unch) Sept 2017 Monthly
Debt-to-GDP 179.0% (+0.9%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance 0.7% (+6.6%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -0.6% (-0.7%) Dec 2016 Annual
Poland
GDP Growth Rate 1.1% (unch) Jun 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 2.1% (-0.1%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 1.5% (unch) Oct 2017 Daily
Debt-to-GDP 54.4% (+3.3%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.4% (+0.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -0.3%(0.3%) Jun 2016 Annual
Russia
GDP Growth Rate 1.8% (-0.7%) Nov 2017 Annual
Inflation Rate 2.7% (-0.3%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 8.25% (-0.5%) Oct 2017 Daily
Debt-to-GDP 17% (-1.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.7% (-1.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 1.8% (-3.3%) Jun 2017 Annual
South Africa
GDP Growth 2.5% (-0.6%) Jun 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 5.1% (+0.3%) Sep 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 6.75% (unch) Sep 2017 Monthly
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 51.7% (+2.4%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.9% (+0.2%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance to GDP -3.3% (+1.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
Turkey
GDP Growth Rate 2.1% (+0.8%) Sep 2017 Quarterly
 Inflation 11.2% (+ 0.62%) Sep 2017 Annual
Interest Rate 8% (unch) Sep 2017 Quarterly
Debt-to-GDP 28.3% (+0.8%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -1.1% (-0.1%) Dec 2016
CA Balance - 3.8% (-0.1%) Dec 2016 Annual

ASIA
Indicators Latest (D to previous) Reference Frequency
China
GDP Growth Rate 6.8% (-0.1%) Sep 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 1.90% (+0.19%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 4.35% (unch) Sep 2017 Daily
Debt-to-GDP 46.20% (-0.4%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.8% (-1.5%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 1.80% (-0.9%) Dec 2016 Annual
India
GDP Growth Rate 5.7% (-0.4%) Apr 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 3.58% (+0.30%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 6.00% (unch) Aug 2017 Next meeting Oct 2017
Debt-to-GDP 69.54% (-0.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.2% (+0.3%) Feb 2017 Annual
CA Balance -2.4% (+0.36%) Dec 2016 Quarterly
Indonesia
GDP Growth Rate 5.05% (+.05%) Nov 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 3.58% (-0.14%) Nov 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 4.25% (-0.25%) Sep 2017 Daily
Debt-to-GDP 27.90% (+1.00) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.46% (+0.12) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance -1.80% (+0.20) Dec 2016 Annual
Malaysia
GDP Growth Rate 1.3% (-0.5%) Jun 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 4.3% (+0.7%) Aug 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 3.0% (unch) Sep 2017 Update expected Jan 3
Debt-to-GDP 53.2% (-1.3%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -3.2% (+0.3%) Dec 2015 Annual
CA Balance 1.3% (-1.5%) Dec 2016 Annual
Philippines
GDP Growth Rate 6.9% (+0.4%) Nov 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 3.4%(+3.00%) Oct 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 3.0% (+0.0%) Oct 2017 Next meeting Dec 14
Debt-to-GDP 42.1% (-2.95%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.4% (-1.5%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 0.2% (-0.5%) Dec 2016 Annual
South Korea
 GDP Growth Rate 2.8% (+0.1%) Jun 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 1.8% (-0.5%) Nov 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 1.25% (unch) Aug 2017 Last cut Jun 2017
Debt-to-GDP 38.6% (+0.8%)) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.4% (-0.6%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 6.99% (-0.71%) Dec 2016 Annual
Taiwan
GDP Growth Rate 2.13% (-0.53%) Jun 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 0.5% (-0.46%) Sep 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 1.38% (unch) Sep 2017 Daily
Debt-to-GDP 31.2% (-0.4%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -1.4% (+0.1%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 13.4% (-0.9%) Dec 2016 Annual
Thailand
GDP Growth Rate 3.7% (+0.4%) June 2017 Quarterly
Inflation Rate 0.86% (+0.54%) Sep 2017 Monthly
Interest Rate 1.5% (+0.0%) Sep 2017 Daily
Debt-to-GDP 41.2% (-2.7%) Dec 2016 Annual
Fiscal Balance -2.7% (-.02%) Dec 2016 Annual
CA Balance 11.5% (3.5%) Dec 2016 Annual