60I

|l SuI)tEru .]r nor turru8pnl aql uo spurdap I a,,g,, puE .,y,, i.nr trxt^\
ii .rrsunall \'.si(rJ,.!rlDllra:-.rd.rr,, Jqr qtrlnqt t() ,Trr
s'q) potlEr uDtuJr'Lt.) puE l{sra^l ,, s sJlquesa I v rp[l^\ (r1 .a-r8.p rqr
Iq st
iu]l 'g Jo a,lrtrirrrsr.rder sr y rltrr{t\\ r)1 aofap rqt ,{q,, sartilrqrq(rrd
Jinn ll.\11,, 1..\ tbtt I o tlutj I -r..,rqu\,,, c \l\,J\tor i, trii \\
SSSNAAIIVJ,NSSTU.IEU {O S,J 'g 'V AHI
'lu.u8Pnl ur
s3scrq ;llrru,rr-nror Lt. ri?rsJ r Jo sttns. r irjl uo pasr.t . ru n-ulrlDlu rl(]rsr-rrp
lo s:r.ro.ql ru:rrrn. 1tr,{[Enrir,\,]r1rJ ut .srssr:)rns op uEqt sJss.ror.t;Lrr
-,{trapun rql Jo a.rorlr lr:r ri Dns srstrq rEqr sr :-.rssI.ns uEr0 r.rirr-r
sasEq uo sursnrq roj rrosDer ^ altl i.rrrl.rE. pel(,rlrriLU sv .s rrrpllrs
urBlrstr ur srs'rrq rtqttrrD..rd ,tan ()t sPErl 1r poE ,,is! rr.\uBlr.sa-rd. r,,
sE u,^\.,ul sr rildeqr slltl ur p.ssnrsrp rlrsunaq eqJ (s.r.rr\\suE p.^rr.p
\|'\|,,U|,,|,|UoJ.l^''l\,.|'l'\)''ll|
ur s.rrels r urEr,rrr )r?.r ll lEql s' i ,sltsrrnr! ijursn to
oSEluE,\psrp rql s:rall[ls. poo5 .{t]ut 'r^JAoq ptrr{ srusun.q ,rillDlu,roN
(r7rLulrto urqt ro(ltEr r.gsulrs
uruo eldo.d srr rsnt) tr.LrUlns i.ru srortprLrrr-oiddE qir-no I is.rsEr lsotrt tll
'Pr.r,lllrro e^'atptnor aurorlro rrJl sIuit ,o Iulol.rtt iq:iurphrp
pur ruo.lno artl lo 3]rl..Lmtrtro tsEd,na^a'.rqtllnu Forlllcl .{q urqt rrtsrjnfll
D :Lrrsn ,{q sr auo.rno uu nt.trl ,\orl rluu[l:-. o] ,rrrsuo :-r t! ,.ldluEx.
.r(,c suorsr.ap PUU slu,tuipnl p(D:i {lqDrosrar JiEur o1 p.rrLub.rr I roJJ.)
Pt't? alurr .qr arnpcr ,iJqr tuq) sr s)rtsr,nl.q lo .ir-pturr^pE IIJ stu.(uspnl
rteLLt lE r^uru ot '.1'un\l Jo set'L' Irrrrurts ro
,,,s:r'lsrnlrq,, rsn s.ra)trur Llors
rr.P lErli p:so.Io.rd J^Eq (tz6 t) oEul.)uqu) l.rurrc puE,{ts-re^J \orxv
's3s:-..o rd rsJLll
Jo 3tru<rnbrsuor E sE tlnss.r ulrr -rrsrrq ertt purr ,suorsnpL(rtr rrirll
ttrll
qrLr.r srr)Eur uo's'trap qrrq^\ i.l J,slrra/d rqr :sanssr pJluta.r or\r 0o
srsn.o:l looq .q1lo uo't.rs slrlJ, as.Lur)]lno .ro slue^a IrIn-rn.r'?l:llo p.r.rq
nsrlll ro.nlE^.rit lo stlrrufjpnl ruot ri.r(ll op,rorl puv asuoq.lo lu.-rot
lrP-uiiu i ^ooll , \rLlr',t oH,\uiir\r i..f rJ,t ^, ,,'.,,,..,4o:.^r,*,,ri
fISEN]H
SS]N]AI1V1N]S]Ud]U ]HI
0r U]IdVHf
110 rrELR s r.s aND El^slrs

you arc cstinrating the Prob.lbilitv that A came fiolrr B, then A mighl bc
i" instance,, ,1sample, ald B might bc a categdy or a parent popula-
tion- F-or ex.lmple, A might be a Pcl:son, ts mighl be a guqr, and the
ju.Lgmenl in qucstioD nright be the probabilily rhal A is :r nrerDbcr of B.
On the olher hancl, iI ,-ou are trling to eslimatc the prolrabililv rhal A
uas prodrrcecL by B, then A misb( bc an evenl or .1n effecl' and B mieht
bc a process or cause. F(n instauce, B might Lre ll)c process <il llipping
an unbiased coin, A mighl be the evcnt of getling sin Heads in a ro\v,
and the judgment misht concenr rhc clunces (n .,bseNnls such an event
rvith an unbiasect c.rin. Becausc' this definiri.,r of rcprescntalivenes! is
abstract.lnd a litlle hard to un.Lcrctard, lets consider somc concrele
cxamplcs ol horv lhc rcpisentatilcness heurislic l\'orks and ho\v it caD
lcad to bi,lscs in cer lain situations.
Iten #l of the Readcr Sunev p|ovides onc crample This problem,
raken irorn a srudy by Tvcrcky and Kahnenlan (1982), rerds as lollows:
Linda is ll tears old, single, oulsPoken and vcr\' bdshl. Shc nralo.ed
nr pl,ilosopht. As a srudenl, slr \vas decplv.once.Ded wirli issues ol
dis.i iminatnnr rn.l so.ial jusLi.t', aDd also PafliciPalcd in antiN.l.ar F GURE IO ]
dc onstralions. Please chcck oll'1he Dnst I ikely .ll ernrlivci The overlopping wo,dr olbon[ re ec

a Li.cli is a bank lcllcr.

tr l.inlla is a baDk Lcllc. and is aclive in th.lanrinist mov.nrcnL
nrcnts, subiects assigned a h
Mosr people lcci rhal LincLa is nrore likcly to be a liminisl bank rcllcr bank ieller lhan to l-inda bei,
than a bank tcllcr. When Tvcrsk], rnd Kahneman (1982) pul this qucs- Tversky and Kahneman (l
lion to 86 people, nearll g of ever! l0 rcsponderts ans\vere.l this \\'av. II' lenrs about "Bill" (who uas tl
tou think abottt it, th(rgh, ihis resp.,nse violatc's a tull(lamental iLrle ol iaz, plave, than simply a jaz
probability. Thc conjuncrion, of trvo evcnts (e.g, was thought nl()re likcly to 1.
;bank telle." and "feminisr") cannot bc more likely thaD the probabilitv ply 1() lole the lirsL seL), an,
()l ciiher evenl alore (e.g., "baDk 1e11cr"). FoI rhis rcason Tlcrskv an.l (\'vho was thoushr more lik
Kahnema,r (1983) callcd rhis phenomcnoD the "c.,niuDclion {.1llacv" (see nrothe$ an.l to cut lcdcral sr
also I-eclclo, Abelson, & Gross, 1984; Mo er & Borgida, 198'1). pro!,ide ledcral supporl ior u
You can ve futhec liuDcti(n, rulc b,Y looking at ligrrr e 10.1 I'he cir Finh ,, s,,lls \r.h is rhes.
cle on thc lcft represclrts the unilclse of all bank tellers, lhc cilcle oD thc cludect: "As lhc amount of d,
ght reprcsent! rhe Liniverse ol all femnrists, and the shadcd area rep.c can (,rlr- dccrcasc steadjlv,
si:lts all bank tellers $,ho are liminists. Because so e bank tellers ail apparenL likclihood may 1nc
rlot fenirisls, the chanccs ol'being a baDk tcllcr (wherher lcminist or se beliele, is a primarv rcar
rlot) uill aLways be grcater th.n, thc chaDces of benrg a bank teller r'kr scena,krs and rhc illuso[, se]
prolicLc. . For example, I
Just to make slLrc rhat pcoplc were n.rt interyreting "bank tellel" l.' oi thc cdme' may appear ler
mean bank tellcr \{ho i! Do1 adive in tlrc feminist rnovemeDt"' Tvcrskv dani lefr the scere of the cr
ancl Kahneman (1982) raD additioral expc merls in \\'lich dillcr'cnt allhoush tlle latter accourt 1r
gloups of subiects tcl.e presenlcd \!ith a sct of allernrlives that inclul:L- This conclusioll is tufthe
ia o,rc of the altcrnative! lrom ltem #l bul nol the othcr (so that thc rcspond to ltem #11 of the R
1\vo ahematiles $cre never clirectly compared). Elcn in these c\pcri the follo\\,ins two scena os !
 :Ilarltl a.()ur sE^\ souE $:- o^u Srrr^\olt()t .ql -r,edr.r rsI{} ur ur,lg .(P.r
(
lo rlrrqa p.I sE uolrs. nb sr tf ls .r.pr?.){ iqr Jo I I # urrll o1 puort:-.r .rl1 trrltt os) .rrrtto rql 1ou t
ildo:d lsour lEqt ,{E.\1 .Ltl icl^rrr. prr,rodd :- rr(llJ]rj sr u(,rsnpuor sltlJ pnFL" tuqr sa^'trLLrII, Jo t
,, r.LLl.roJ rqr upltl .tcl'rqord ssat sr lunor.E.r:nrt arn gsnoqtl]] lu..ra qrqn\ L slu)rul.l
..rrp.rnm lo prsnrr'r;ur..i to.mq ror aru[.) .qr Jo .nars.ql uat rucp 'P
ilsr:^l iiluaua\oLU rsftrltu
uaJ:p.qt, srsiqlodiirl aqr utqr rtqrsnrtd ssJt .nr.ddr ,{rlu ,rlurlr eqr t.r
ruors eqt ttrl lu'rpu.lep aqt, srsrqrodlq aql ,JIdruDx..r.,c .pr^o.rd 'r1 ,,r.tlJt IuEq,, 8uur,rftl]tur
r.J lo\r ur' nr'.uo. u.,r.,cr,I trlF
oqr\ ra[.r )u']q r 3r[.q Jo s
P.lrEl.P Jo lraddp p.ruE.r.rEAun aql iol uosE.r tlrufi]d E sr i.\.rlrq r^\ rc rsru'Lu.t .'rqreqa) .r. .r
ii-sru.^Ir'?lr.seJdor uo a.urrtar oql rsD3.11rr i.ur poor{rr.i{rt lor,rEddr .rlr s,rsllar Iurq i'l(,s .snm
slr rru:)tl pur ssnuJ^qEluas.rd.r str lnq,itrpr?.ts rsEalrp ntrc uDl ..rdJ,r u:rD prpDqs .LI puE ,
uo. (86 d'2861) uEurrqer pu. tl
.' uo apr'r rql's.ra .t Iu'?q
su rtrns sllnsar lrlord .rrr .rlJ i,rnijrJ lx ijufrlo
^Is..re^J,.s.Llr I 0t
(sJ.rttolu pa^1un ()t oddns tE-Liprt rpr^ord (186t ,ryrb.ros ry
ot rldurs rruqt slrr rru.rr^or lprot ot riodrln:' tr.r.pq tnr (r1 pur sr.qlour a.s),,Ira[rt uou3rntuo.,, 3q
par1u,] .IoJ r.rod.Ins lrrrip.J.pr^(,rcl or i(lrltt a-(,lu rq3noqr sD1\ o(t^\) puP ,{Is.r:^J iuosEe.L srql ro
s:1Ets prlrun 3qt i(, turprso.r.l .rarrrol E puu ,(ta:" ts.ru I1 rsot ol
^ld .{trtrqEqor.I
.qt ulqt,{t.Irl .
-urs L'Prn (I.]'rm.qi ura nrq r.s rsr't .rll rsol o1,{ta)trt i.roru tqin.,Ltt s.,s ' ; .) slu:^. o^\r Jo i3]Lrr.r.
ort,l\) ,.r^uld srm.t u(,p.rtqtur^\ D i( ra,{Eld zzDi D it.Iurrs uErp r.,{1rtd zTE| E salrtor
Jo etn.r lDrueLur::puiI
pue lurlunorrE r'e.q ol ,{lorIr..rou lrliinoqr slra o't.r) iillrtl,J }n.,q, slllrl
-qord rIrr\ srtnsai.EI[rJrs punoJ ostE (286I) rnu.oUrr>r pu]tr i)tsra^J It srqt P..rrrlsuo sturPu
-s.nb
^]r^\slt{]
}nd (286r) u u:ru
relar )iur:q ls+'rllrq D rq (,r n
rsruru.t rr Surrq epur-1 ot rrqsrq D p3u,:rssE str.lqns ,slu.rur
^rIlrquqor.l r!.urr^otrr tsruru.I
srsru u.l pu! n.t6r )tuog to sproa 6u'dd.fa^o oq1
:arwu., IEil.)
l'01 :tn9l .iD.JIUrlur u p.trdrrrlDd
Io s. ssr qrl\\ pruJ.ruo. i
parolir IS 'rq8uq i.r.^ p
:s\\o .,t srr sPEar i(286r) u?
iu,Jlqord s,qJ :lduB-J 3uo
r'17-r lr PUE s+roM rrrsrmi
ero.rruor ^\ort
aruos r:p'slr0-r s,l:l
sr sseu.^rl'rlursr.rd.r lo uorlr
lu.^J uu q.ns iiurrursqolo sr
',so|r ur sPrrH xrs lqlrrn.B l
8L,,.ldrLI Jo ss.ro.rd.qt aq rq
lrl;'Lu g PUE
ittr{J. ur.to tuJ
Y lEql iirrrqrclo,rd aqt slPru!
'tt.to rJqu.ur E sr Y t.rtl iltl
eqt pua dn(rrb- lr aq rqBrlu
t- -Etndod tu:rrd u ro io8.lu.
oq tqilru V uaql ig uro.rt .Lue
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I I2 HErrRrsrr.s AND tsl^sEs

'l l,c nrean IO .t Ll,c Dopul

Scenario 1l An all-ort nuclear lvar betwcen the United States be 100. You hale selc.Lcd
and Russia ol edu.xrio.al a.hielemcr
Scenario 2: A situation in $,hich neither countny inlnds to Whal do liI cxpect the m.
attack the olher side with nuclear u,eapons, but an Most people ansNer thar
all'out ruclear war betwcen the United Slates and thc co]ect ans\\,er is that
Russia is triggered by thc actions of a third counrr. anslver is 101 because the
such as Iraq, Libya, Israel, or Paldstan rcmaiDins childrcn have an
of s0s0 IQ ponts (150 + I
comcs.rut lo all avcrage exp
As !\,ith thc baDk teller problcm, most people leel lhar thc more spe
lf vou aDs$ered 100 .at
therc uorld be lorv IQ scor
cific eveDt (an all our \\,ar lrisse,c.l br a thild counlrl) is,norc probable Such r vie\\, implicilly assur
thau the rx)rc gcncrat evenr (an all out tar). ln.leed, the PcIl.r-con has Chance .loes r,o. c.nrrct or,
sperlt .lcc.l.tcs dcveloping rvar pl.lns and pl.ocurins u,eap<xrs to handle Iot, scores: it melcly "dilut
hishh dchllcd but extremely intprcbable scen.nios. Accor.iing io lver arc closcr lo the avc,ase (
sliy and KihnenraD, spccilic sccna os appe.n ,n.rrc likcly than general (1971) have arsued rhar rhe
rnrcs bccause the! are rr(n c rcplcscntatile ol ho\\, s'c imagine p.n-licular
an example (,i a bias rcsul
because samples are expccte
population.
THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS In thc same !,ein, Tvcrsk
.epresentaiivcness heurjstic
Auolhcr consequence ol thc l.c-presentativeness lrcurislic is that people cy' the belicf tha! a succcs
tc|rct to beliere in ul,aL Tlcrskv and Kahneman (1971) call "the law ol (or, more gencrall!, the beli
small numbers." Thc la*,of small nrrmbers is a tonsue-in.heek rcle,' same outcomc \\,ill soon be I
cnce io a ll]u,in strtistics kno\I,ll as the la\! oi larac numbers (a laiv sLal of thc Reader Srnet examir
in-e that ttre largcr a samplc- vou clms, {r<nr a population, the cl()ser its fallacy. You \\,erc asked:
avcl.a-se rvill be lo th.'population avera!.c). A bclicf in the la\v (,1 r,?4,
Suppose thal an uDbiased.
numbers is rr belicl that random samples (,1a populatiol ri'ill reserlblc
.oin lands on Hcads.lf yol
each olher anct tlrc population nrrc closclv lhan statislical sanrpling would vou choosc?
theor_'v woul.l prc.Licl.
F(,r cxamplc, uhen people arc asked to urile dos,n a ran.lom Because llre coin is Lrnbia
seqlrence ol coin tosses \!ithoul acturllv tlippirg .r coin, thcy ollcn 1rn to vou should hare no prefercr
make LLc slring look random at cvcrl poinl (Kahneman and Trtrckv, erroneously bclieve, horvevc,
1972, c.ill lhis local repr-eseDlati!,cucss"). As a conseqrrence, thcy lcnd three Heads. Tlel-sky and Kn
to exchr.lc long runs aDcl includr monr altenulions bet\lccn Hcads n,islaken bcliei that clnncc
al.l T:1ils than r-otr rvould nornrallv 6nd in a charrcc scqucncc. ln.r (i.e., that even,par! ofrhe sc
ch:rncc sc.luence, there.ne rlan\ points rt u,hich thc scr-ics does not
kr(lk landom at !rll. T(, lcrili this facl, you cal aPprorimale a cbance
scqucnce bv tossing a coin I00 times and recorclilrg lhc pattem ol Heacls
THE HOT I{AND
and Trils. Onc ol the most cnle ainin
An illusimtion ol'the lau ol small nur trs is gi!.n in llcm #15 of the bcls $as publislrc.d bv Tho
Rcadcr SuNey. This problc,r comcs frcm a stl,.ly h! T\'clsk-v and Kalr Tvcrsky (1985). Instead of
ncman (1971), nnd ir ,Lrns as foUons: examioe.l people's perceptio
r3,{td V lttqrartstq ur iipuEq rorJ,, e Jo sro4d.r-I..I s,.tclo:rd pJUrLuEre
sr:q E3sar asaql 'sassol urotr ]E suqoot Jo purlsut (886t) ils,rr^J LIDJ Pu'r ,i)sr.rJ rq ,\prlls !
soruv puE '3ro[1?A rra.tod 'r].r,\olr.) sElrroq.L ,{q p:qsrt.tnd sE^\ s:rJq .ql lo ql# urall ot u.^I; sr s.ra
tunu IIEurs Jo .^\l aqt to su()rtprlslrorurp 6-rllurEu.]ua tsolr' altt lo 3oo
spr.H Jo rr r.|rd aql ELrllror
ONVH IOH AHJ aJuerl. r rlrluL\o.rdd! u'r. n
tou sroP sr[a:- rq1 rJrtl^\ r'r
'(uLopurr rra.Idr? lsnlu rruinbrs .qt i r q .ru:rnb.:- Iu'rq. P u'
Jo lud na^a tultt o r)
a^tlElursrrder ,{rc.ol 3q tsnu s.truinbJs .rueq. lEq} Jalaq ua}tEtsrlu spDiEI u.ar\1)q suorrlr.'3llx
aql lo slu,rJl ur.ro,{\slrE srq} urrtd\3 urrurauqDl puE tqs.rarJ spEaH aa.ql PU rrltt 'a.urnbisuo. ! sY
Io u'1' E.rruE rtqEqo.rl:l eroul si s1,r?J rrltr
i,r^r\\oq 'r^oneq llsnoeoorra ',qs.r.\t puu uELU.ruLt!j) lul
aldoacl aluos slrEJ puE spu3H ue.ataq atru.r.,JJ.,d ou r^Eq ptnoqs noI or i.rt u.t,o ,{.qr'uror r Suldd
lEql s' r3^\suE r.r.Ilor lI3^rlelrlrou 3qt'pastrqur sr uror aql asnLrraa ruoPLIr., u,\\op irrL\\ or
'r
.rso(n]] no\ Plnos iiurldru.s uulLl ilr
.prs rrqrs'sso] txJu ltl ,r) 00t'li l.q ol puq nod lI'sperlr !o spurt umr tr.IlslEts
oqr.uu qr!. pu!'saurl r.iqr p.ddrlt sr uro. p.slrqun u! rDrJr .so.l.tns rtq,u.sar IIr,\\ uorrrlndod D J
l/,rrr Io r(tr u] ]a]t:q v
:P3{s1? ara^1 n"t rrl iqr 'u{)rlEtlrdod u
str rasolr^\EI
s,rrlqurEa orlt lrulruor ot I]u.pual rno{ pruruExa I.Nns rapr:d.Ltt.to ^rc 'r
lPls s.riq(nu .iirrllo
ta# trr4l (euorlno :lrsoddo urr {q prr\\ofloJ oq uoos IIrl\ alu.,]] o .Lur:rs ,.t.r^\DI 'r) Lr'.nn-Lror D sr s.r
rqt qrt.{\ slElrt srr.rrs E
l:eqr
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ro,r1?T rr{1,, ll', (t/61) u'rur
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rttrJ s,,rrlqtuE3,, eql rrtrlttlo:] o1 :tdoad spEJI rrrsr.morl ssaua^qaluasardar
aq1 lrltr Posodord (r/6t) rEursrltE) pL,E i)s,rnf'urr^ InEs IIl rI
rrortEln.tod
luei'rd rrellr Jo o^rlElursordar ,{lq;rq .q (,r parradx.r .jc srtdluEs asnuGl:i
'rrlsunaq ssauo^rlElurs:rrder rql rro.q iluitttrs.r sErq E Jo rldurDx3 uE
sr xuq.ar()r JI:rs sE irueq.,{\ar^ o:} {r apu.r .qr rn{[ prnsiE .^Erl (IZ6T)
PtrDlrud .ur;tur .,\\ r\otl lo
uErr.uqrry foE I)s.rr^J (00I as1?3 siql u, .3pr3^E rqr or risotr 3.ru trr.urt uurll \t.]Lt i.roul .'x.
.r.r\.1. ot nurf r)Iv soutuirs
lErll seror:' tEl'orlrPPu qlr^\ soio.s q;q ,,s.trttrp,, II..rrLu lt :sr.ro.s r\\ol
)tPuEq ot sl(rl:tr!^\ ilur.mror
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sr:Il uo;rruad eqi 'prrPut (.'
Bu!.eror-JI.s $ arurqr ltql '.r.^r^\oq '$trlnssa Ittl]Ltdlur a.r^ u \rnS
rtqcqo'd ..iou sI (r.rrr"'or pr
09I Jo ero.s q;q .ql ,,rno rruEFrq, 01 sarors ol aot aq ptnol\ Jrrqr -.ds i.rour erll tEql lr.rt atdoa
rEttl p:unssx ,{tqtq(,rcl no,{'tot uEqr reqlai 00t p.r.^\slnr nol JI
I0I Jo OI p.tr.dra a:1r-ra^t uE or rno s:ruor
'urrptqr 0s Iq papr^rp u.qrh'q.q^\ (006r + osl) srurod or 0E0E Jo
lEror E $IEtrr srql'Lt:rDa 00r Jo or prFsdr. uE :^rq uatrptrqr Sururuturj
6t rtJr pu'r ocT lo or uD !P't Plrl. rs.rg eqr 3snEr3.l tor sr r.MsuE rinrnor PrIq] E Jo srlollcE
rrarrotr Jrt.l I0I :q pt'1olts ot 38Err^E r1l1 rEql sr re$s e rtr.rror r(tl Pur sa]ets pallu{l aq1 u3
'l:)EJ ur nlct '00I aq IIqs pt'1olts ot utJurcqr rErtl.ra$suu etdoad tsorll ur:rlnq 'srodEo,\'\ .Ll3.Fnu
a.ldluus atoqM .qr ro] .q ot oL uinu ciit l..dxa noi op l!qr\\
.)1 sPualur ,ulunor .I3qI
osl Jo ol uD sDtt p.lsar plqr lsrr.l .rl.r. stuiu.^.rrttr! puorl!trnp. Io
dpnr.^ c rol ua,ptrLtr 0S lo.tdurs uopupr e pil..l.s o^!q not.00t aq salrls p3l1un oqr ue.^ 1.
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1i4 HEURISTI'S BIASES
^ND

wirh a ho1 hand (also knorvn ris a "streak shooter" or an athlete "on a were expecling 1oo many
roll") is a player who has a better chance ol making a baskct aftel one or series tusl as people do ul
more successtul shots than altet having missed a shol- sequences). Chapter 14 dis
whai Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky discovered is that Philadelphia
76er basketball lans-and sevcral players and coachcs as \\'ell per-
ceived streak shoot;ng when statistical analvscs showed ihat nore exist- NEGLECTING BASE RA.T
ed. That is, peoplc rhought ihat the chances ol'making a basket
nrcreased after a player had made sevet'al successlul shots, when in In some instances, a relian
tilrth the ch:rnccs of making the next basket were not siSnillcantlv dif- ignorc "base rate" inlbrmatio
lercnt from thc pla-\,ers .rlcrall probability of making a basket- Gilovich which an event occurs). KahI
and his associates foun.l rhe same results with lrec throw rcords fron tcndcncy in a series of cxper
thc Boston Celtics ancl Nith iaboralory experiments (or, more preciselv, man and Tversky (1973, p.24
$,mflasirm e{perimeDts) on mer and women liom Cornell's varsitv bas A panel of psy.hologisLs
pcNonality tesrs to 30 cngn
For a short time, thesc findnrgs crearecl ?r national uproar in the .espective lields. On the
sports community. How could Cilorich, Vallonc, and Tvet skY sav that descdptions ol thc l0 engnr
streak shooting u,as simply an illusion? Anyone who has plaved or lvill lind on ]-our forms f
watched basketball kno1'''s thar platel.S ar-e sometimes hot or coldl Bas- ihc 100 alailable descdpti,
ketball tcams even alter their sllaregies in order to delcnd against slrcak vou, pr.bability that thc p
shooters. The idea lhat baskelball shots madc bl' the same pla]'er arc
statislically unrel.itc'd seems very hard to swaLlorv For example, here is a tl
In order io Iind out why pcople slronglv perceive streak shooling TveIsryL intended to bc fairlt,
when successes and failurcs are statisticallv indePendcnt of one anoth-
Ja.k is a 45 yea.-old man.
er. Gilovich, Vallone, and Tl,crskY (198s) conducted an exper;mcnt in generally consenaLne, care
which subjecls vieu,ed six different scries of x's and O's (which vou political and so.ial issues ar
might think of as "hits" .,r "misses" in a basketball game). Each series hobbics whi.h include ho
contained I I x's and 10 O's, and the probability of altemating between
the two letlers lvas set a1 .40, .50, 60, .70, .80, or .90. For example' the
stTing "XOXOXOOOXXOXOXOOXXXOX" represcnted an .ihcrnation Using the same flve thuml
probability of .70 (becausc it alternatcd between x and O on 14 of 20 also gare a second grotp of r
possible alrcrnations). portion of eDgineers and la$
Gilovich, Valone, and Tversky found that subiects selccted the .70 Iawyers), but bccause the re
and .80 sequences as the best examples of a chance series, rather lhan si\lt, on the condition with:
correctly sclecting tlre .50 sequence. The sequence with a .50 probabilit!' ollce subjects rated the pr
of altemalion was classified as a chance series by onlv 32 pclcent of the be an engineer, thcy were a!
subjects. Indeed, 62 pcrcent of the subiects classified the .50 sequence as one randorrly sclccted fron
"streak shooting." about u,hom thcv were given
To scc how you would have perfomred on this task, take a look at suryris;ng1y, on average sub.j
your answer to ltem #38 of ihe Reader Suryey- The first string sen person would be an engi
ixoxxrooooxoxxoooxLxox) allemates on half of lrll possible they tlscd the base rale given
occasions (similar to wha! might be expccted fron, a chance scries). On thc other hand, u,hel
In contrast, the sccond seqncnce (XOxoxOOOXxOxOXOOxxxOX) informalion-elen i omali
reprcsents an altcrnation probability of .70-far higher than thc .50 eng;necr oi lauyer they ten
expected by chance alone. lf you thought ihal thc first seqtcnce con neman and Tversky (1973) (
tained mns that were too long to hare been gencrated randomlv votl trait to be equally descriptive
 :raIalrl 1? ro rraur3ue un Jo .^ndrlsep ,{lttnba aq ot tlerl no,{ ',{Ituopuel polpr.ua8
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qe) 'iatdlurxa rojl serEr asEq ,rou8r or papual Isqr reri{\el ro .rr.ul8u3 09 eql ur{r rrqsq .rJ
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1t 6 rlrrRrsrrcs aND urAsEs

Di.k is a 30-]_ear old man. llc is maricll q'ilh no 'hildren' ;\ man of FIGURE ]0,2
high abilit) and hiSh motivaLion, he pbmises lo be quiic su'cesstul in The rcotion5h p bhaeen prformonrE
h:. nr J H'. \,rr ,Ledb\l'..oll'dt.r''. frcn tten t35 af the Reorlet s\tvey )

Such a descripiion is cntirelv uninlormative with respecl to Dicks

profession; coDscquerll,t, the probabilitv of behs an ensineci in this
Top l0%
case should be cquat to the base Iale ol 30 percent- Kahneman ancl
Iop 2a%
Tvet.sk) (1973) bund, h<xvcver, that subjects siven rhis descriplion save
a neciian probabilirr- cstimale of 50 pcrcent. Apparcnll)', subjects Top 3O%
igno, cd the base Iate information anct simplr jRlgcd the dcscription as Top 40%
equally
-A represcntative of an engineer or a lauver. Top 50%
qoo.t deal of research has investisarcd ihe condiihns urder ulich
peopic teDcl to use or neglec! base ratc infonnaiion (Bar Hil]el, 1980
1990: Fischhoft & Bar Hillel, 1984; Osbcrg & Shrauser, 1986) For
examplc, Icek AizeD (1977) found that People ol'len use base rate inlor Regression to lhe mean is
rnaLion when it is consistent u'ilh their intuitile lheories of cause rnd low scores len.l to be lolLx
ellect. ln rnc experiment, Ajzcn asked subiects to predict a student's perents ten.l t() Lale childrcr
()n cither caus'l f"rors (srrcL as the number
srade point ave;se based a lest scr,e ol 725 is quilc I
i,l ho"i" p". th. studenl studied) or roncausat informatior (such w(n,l.l p,obabh rcccirc a scc
",..ti
as rhe stuclcnt's rueekly nrconrc). Aizen founct that people rced base rates
500 (and, bl 1hc samc logic,
nrorc ofler \vhen lhc infonnatioD u'as causal than when it was not- Yolr can think ol il this lfay
prcdictecl grade
--!cn uher lhey wcrc tolct that the noncausal faciors n.r iDl;r malion about thc sn
point aleraee just as well as the musal factors.
high school achicvcmcnt rr
GPAS. Bccause lest scores i
NONREGRESSIVE PREDICTION bcst choice is somerfiere b
tllan the average, but nor re.
Peoplc also tend to neglect the diagnosticit!' ol the lormation {'}n Nlost ps-vchologists think (
rvhich thev basc their prcdictn,ns, an.t zrs a resull, thev makc "nonre pcndcnt componenis: the "tr
gressivc" prediclions. For examplc, Iten #35 ol'thc Reader SuNe'v
lin scolc tlut a studert \lould r
@a..,1 on a problen 1, om Kahncman an.t Tversk)'' 1973) poscd rhe ability, and the enor conpo
lou,ing question: nothjng ro clo !\,irh abilily I
Srppose thal scorcs on a high s.hool academic achielemenr lest are score (amol,nl ol sleep Lhe
nrodemrclv related ro .ollegc grade poinl averagcs (GPAS). Given tiic lightiDg condilioDs, and so c
percentiles below lshown Fisure 10.2], !vha1 GPA Nould vou predict cel each other o1rt, but occal
for a student $,ln scored 725 on the tcsl? tucrease or decreale a lest
Hou, did ),ou rcspoD.u Most people pre.lict a GPA between 3'5 ancl dent of the true score, hos,e
3.7 (.r GPA hiP.hlY "rep.csentalile" of a 72s test score)' This answer toward lhe tme scoe.
makes sense i1ihe achievcmenl test is pericctlv diaP,nosiic ol a siudent's The lendency kr olerlool
GPA. lf ihere is an exact corespondeDce between tcst scors and GPAS, ju.ls,rent. For cxamplc, Kah
lhn a scor-e of 725 \lould transiate into a GPA ol about 3 6' Accor-ding lvhich ioslrLLclors in a fligh
to thc problem, thouglr, scores on the achievemenl test are 'or perlect lvell executcd lliglrt mrncuv
pre.licto$ oi GPA. The problem states llrat scores on the lcst arc only marce. Dr)cs this dcclinc n
i'modcratel1, rclatecl to cotlege g,rade poinl average." Because test scorcs successes? Not at.111l On thc
arc only moderalely predictivc of CPA, rhe best GPA prcdiction lies lirrnr.uccs \!ill bc folloted I
uctu,ee,, l.s and thc average GPA ol 2.s-therebY allou'ing for 'i cgres- agc. Likc\lisc, pool. perfor
sion ro thc mean." rceardlcss of rvhether punisl
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Ir rh.i| hook on hunlan il]li'r!'ncc. Richard Nisbelt ard Lcc Ross For cranrplc, in one slLrdJ
(I980, pp. 163, 165) dcscr ibc somc additiorral c()nsc.tLtcDccs ol misnlter psYclri.rtric staff melnberi $,
prcling regression: c()Inpcnsation claim lilcs in 1

(Laskv, Hover, Smith, Bostir

Such mislab.ling .rl sinplti ,cg,cssiitr, pLcnomena (i!hercb), c\lrd,,cly
good o, h:1.1 pe.lorman..s will, ,!i th. aremge, be lollorql br lcss ol claim filc's u'as used as a c
c\tre,irc fedornrances $,hcnc\ar 1l,c,L'is rn L'lemenf ol (h.nc( i,, s,ch tlrrncd orL1, staff judgments !
pc, lor nrances) is ..nnnron in cv.,\tla\' e\pe.ien.c. Onc ain!,,.c, ting .licling rcadnlissiorl tlun lver
inrpli.ation 01 slch,,,islal,.lirg is thai D.as!,cs J.sisrL'.l to stenr:1 and .6 1, respedi!,elr-).
''.risis" (a su{lLlc,, in.rtrse in .inc, discrs.. ,n banktuplcies, or a AppaIentl,,-, the e\I)L'rtise (
suklen dcc,casc in sales, miDfalL, o, olu,,pi. gol.l nredal ivhners) ililL, x1g addilio.al iDlin rnati.rn
on thc alcrage, seem ro halc grcil., irnpa.l lhan lher! a.lually l,rs Bec.ruse clinical j,rdscs gcnc
bcc,, . Superstitions rboul wl,ar o.c nmst .hangc lo cnd a 'brd ti|eness and arc thcrclort s
sr(ak" ()l .(r.omes, or Dlrsl ,r, .l,ang. lor tear oL endnrg a "s,x)d dictions are relv ,n(,,c accr
strcak," will arise hur lhc .bs.,\atbn ol sinplc ,agcssi(tr, a(]tuarial relation!.

ceorge Gmeich (1978, Ausust), a prolissio,,al bascball player rvho CONCLUSION

lati:r becanre a social scicnce researcher, chl,niclc'cl scveral exanples ol
such snperslition in an a].ticle enljllecl "Bascball Magic." Accordirg lo Reseach orr thc rcprcscnlat
Gmelch, the NcN York GiaDts reft,se.l ro clcan thcir LrniloDrs durins a improvc juds,ncnl and deci!
16-game winnins sr,cak fol teal ol' "ri,ashing a\vr)," thcir good Iorture. tips:
Sinlitarly, Leo Du,ochcr $,ol.e the same black shocs, glev slacks, bltte
coat, aDcl krottc.L lic for thlee ancl a hall uccks rvltile ibe Brooklvn Don't Be Mislcd br H)
Dodgers clinchc'ct a pcnnanl !iclor! in 1941. llcit), thrl makes det
Resrc'ssion to\\,aid the rnear can also cxplall rvhy highly sLrccc'sslLrl lcsscns their likelihood
aihletes an.t lcams tend 1(r e\pericrcc a.Llop ir per|., nrarce irrrncdi thc lo\\,er iis .hances
alely altcr appcaiing on the co!,er ol spotls llhtstkttul nragazirc. Alll slrcms peffe.tlv rep.ese
letes l),pic.llh ippeal. or the colei inlowinp an Lrnusuall,'- good pc'rfi,r whenncr Possible, Pa
mance, and hom lcgression alone, a dcclinc in pi:rformance ivoulcl lt pa11icularlv importarL
expectcd. Thc Spons lllustrotul Jinx," rs il is kno\u, is x)t a iirr\ al mon. Lor exanrple, bec
.ill rnosl likcl-v, it is nolhirg r()rc lhan rcglcssiot to the incar. applicanls neler geL a.l
r mislake t() irltcrprct
cant lachs ac:rcli'rnic al
CLINICAI VERSUS ACTUARIAL PREDICTION so Ligh, nraur unskill
WheD basc r:(cs arc cl
l'he teDdencv pe(,plc hi\,. to neslect irlor tratiotr on basc lates and diag jrdicalor (n f ,1,babili1\
rlosticity conlributcs 1ir a vel1 sLrr?rising atr.i cmbarrassng llale ol Ramember Tlrut Chan
affairs. As cL<rtLnrcntcd nr near)y I00 stu.lics in the socjal scierccs lucl( is just thal: a run ,
(Dawes, Faust, & Nleehl, 1989), rhe accl,racv of actlraljll" predictions xle,rt run ol eood luclr
(prt.tictions based sotelv or enrpir ical rclations beiweer a gi!,cn sc1 of that things are doome.
lariablcs and an oulcome) is cqlr,ll lo or better thar thc rcclrracv of tossins an unbiased co
"cliric.1l" plc.tictions (preclicri(ms bascd on the iudgnrenr ol humrn ccrlain outcome, pasl
l,einBs). In othcr \\,ords, contra.! t{) cornmon sellse, prediclirns rrc usu
alty rnorc .lccul.ate wben lhe,r r|c ,?dr nlade br a human dccishn Don't Misinterpret Re
makcr even when the decision mikcr has ftrll access L<, actuarial infor'- a run of bad lucl( is nor
(or vjce versa), e\trenrr
..roru ,iq Pr.\\(,tloJ rq ol Pusr s.IrEtLI.IoJ.t"t rLLr' 'rr'r '('s 'ar\ 'trt\ '1o)
)trnt Pooi Jo ult.I c Iq pornPltq III rtssii'u rou st Irnl pEq lo uni r:: .roj"' tumnll.'r ol ss::r.'r LLq
qa"i,qr uD" / aw pD$or lto,ts Eatr Pldotrls!* , uorslIP u'rtun'l n tq epclu
""^s !:i,;,,!. nsn .rt .,'LroIFrP.rd '.su.s uo
-l]n):rnlrrl 1Io ltral]r oLr 3,\Dr1 ILL\\ !lLLa^J lsl?d'iuorln() LIIEIT':) uDlulnl to ru.u;pnl aql uo
nuls:-or
E Su,rnpor.l Jo {rLtrq,rq,,.d ultr.rJr E sDq (ulo' Prstr'Lun rrt Jo I.\rrnlr rltr u'rql rrxJq
ay,11 ssoco,cr'o ,,, qJ ,: ll .uus eqr.{.rs or P'Ltloop 'rE s8lrrql rr:q] Jr) tes u3^6 'r
u:e^\1..1 suorl!
uEou rou s.oP tr prE ili.ro r)l Ptnlo.L sI )lrnt Po('8 Jo unr luil1r su()arlFrd ,,1'r' 'rrrl)r,, lo i:)r]
-,\nrb. ut ttql uP.u rou s.oP ll l.nl Pr:rq lo ulll D :lr1p lsnl sI )'nl sIrI.Irs .tI Li' sirprt
L1rlros
pu.t Jo rnrL y 'EulpatroJ-JPS toN sI arut W t114.L ,Qqtualu"U r.1 1()olrts Sursnr.IrEque PUx i
iltl(lr.loid Jo.'oIEJPLII ;ulr fur? sirP'' :s\rq uo uo'l!
atqqlcJ E uru(, sr ssrua^qElrr.s)Idi I 'rtu rr' ''E s:1c'r 'stq u'LLr\ NOII]I
.,,rcn,,p u pap.rcx'rr .rn sr.^r.IP fal1qsrrn ^ur 'tJBIq os
".-.t..-,i1
sL arEi .soq tr 3snprl)q 'il.sr.,\tr(,f (^l!llqn rl'r'epcrt
s-I'tl rLIr'
rt.ldE ur lEtJr ir-LLIrDrrfLrI slr u.,IsslurpLruo(r lardi'ILII ol 'I'rlsrLu u 'rnj)ru.rlil or uoLss..ri
p1",^.1, 1i,"1 p-1.s or:llPr:.ri or Plrrrupe rJ'- L''\ru srru'rl'l'tD
".1 tE \LIII rolr sr 'ur\oul sI I'
peru.-p,; ,iuut" 1\ol os sI .rltr rsDq aW,snljr:rq 'aldtur:\a roJ uorr 'r aru!,uroJ.rrd I in
luror ,tr:,r.,,, r.IELrte^ sr rur^r ur u 1.\1 luPlrodtur '(liclnrql'rd ,q ptnor\
Qna aryh a rol.r.d pooi ilt.nsnrtrr uu S
a.rE s.tirr rsDS satDl asrg o] uo!ryaltv iDd ,lqlssod sl
qrv iu'ztir'rllt Plutsl]lll
aurocl,ro o1q"qo:a l.,,LtlJrll Jo r^rlrxurs' rder {llr'JrJcl stuJis ,paLUL,,, eruPtr,.IoJ.r3LI ur dor
ol'ruuars rql tlJrla LIr,\J :llli.rnIo J('] ei'r s'rlMl] s1I rrr\ol rtll ululdx
'sr o, lur.rs t rgr.3ds r'rou Jr{r 'll].rruiil uI ?ootLIIrlrl rI I sltrssrl Irrtssr.-r,ts ^tqil,q,\q^\
-'-,...1, ,, I soltnua's PltDDo r:t4dtll iq PFlw ru I uoo uitloor$.tI .ttq^\ s)lr.^\ I
''.,' "1 entq 'sll:)]rts i..L8 se.rqs )r'1
:s'l!l '.ulll ()l poo;l rlrltl ,,,{Dl\rr ,
ll iur rtp slu (rllu'1 u'?:l
iluL^\ofl(,t :tI iuriltLo uorsL'rP Pue rLr'LdPnt '^orduI ".111
"'urpnpuL's1r1s Ld' tLr'r'rrs'J (]1 :iurp.rotrry ,,.rn-!W ll'rq.s
,,1 .n"i' 1or.^". slsr;8ns rrlsLini\ ssrur^ I lirlurss ' 'ql uo to sit.kll'rxr lu.,\.rs pii.'uo.r
N0lsn'rlNol) ort,\\ ,a^qd [Pqrsr].l IEU(,'ss:
'suo!1clr.t I1rL"::ni:rn norss.rier rldlurs Jo u
'ro I,\.rt\\r,L.,q.Lorr. 'r"'r'rl
fr'd ILl ' 'rr' r )r^'r (l)JLrn'r "r' \')'rr\r' poou,, t iI"Pu..lo ru.l .ro
JrLl I',1l'F r! ]lqr l" ''r'' r" r'rlrri p,1,, . p,,i or i;u'!r lsn
nr""..ra.., ...1",,. srlrsr.rtr.q uo il.'r '(lljI'uJ8 seiiPnt I'rrru'Lr isn'rrag s?,1 IIIxnrr'r ..r.ttr u.ql l.
rltt^\ (sJ.nt \
'sroFEj r.rlro rssl]o rnnll uo'lr:rlll'roll ItooLlPP'r 'uI llrP.tu Ploi.
^q p 3t{r 'ilru:rcddY ,, ,o si,Jl.ln.'1u!q !r 'rs
ruq I,:Euru:rpc PuE sL.qu.Lu IJcrs lo rsrri'tlrir 1r u.rs or paun_rsrp sirnsc
'(,{tr^qrrdsa.('19 PLIIr
;urt.,.truotrstP r(O i.uarr.
utqr uorsslLLIPurj n-u4rIP
Z9 irai\ su{)r}cl..r.()r rql) srqSI.r^\.rrPlol 'Ii^\ qrns uL .truultr
rurdl.li
I.r
-arcl ur orelr:cu c-ou IItLlu:rgluilLs lou.-r;,\\ slu)ruSfLtlJJEIs lno Pamnl ss.rt p.r^\ottot .q a6!.r.
sEM s:lu rp ^q iq.r.'1h) .u.'r'o
itru.rrx.
rr sy suorruzllEtrLlsoq ls I Jo . rnsErtlr 'pn'''] t sr P'sn 'u l('
r,td,)$ irtl i,.--l l.r,'\ \ ).\'fLId InU r'cir!'|fl ' 'ru\'r-\oll il"l'
,' t.'"1 ;,, ,.'.' '
turr' rr d'r' 'rlr I rrrl''! r 'r 'r )LILLJ.
'..
sru.,rta t,i rtJ,\\.qr rlrl^\'"'"
Pr.tr c1rlo' ar''{ sa'qturu JJrrrs
rr'rrPliL:r^sd '.irlub-ttu I) s.-ru.rnbisl()r l
Iz r,,
.r"..,tpnt .qr 'uorlJlPrid lxrltrrl' tro ifLtls rrr'r trl ''ldlmrx' 'od ssod ..'l PLID nsqslN P.rcr
6l I rrsr:rnirrs:_!Nq.\
t20 rEUrtrsrr.!
^ND
tsJAsEs

alcrage pe irrmarccs. Rc-sression ro\\Jar'l the rncan is lvpicdl $tren

CHAPTER
il
in
ercr an c,utu,m.- depercls in part upon chance lactols Ererv once
,fr"* lacl,"i combin" to Produce an unLrsrral perlormaucc'
^."frif.
i,;;;. J*q".,, ...asions, pcrr<,rmancc usuallv retLLrns t'r nornral'
manvof
THE AVAILT
By keeping thcse suggeslions in mir'f it is possible to avojd
tr," ili"..i rrr-.t ,r'sutt t'iln. a reliance on the repr escntatnleness
rcr'-L,"{n,'''','ri ' 'r''
helrris-
tr''
HEURISTIC
;;.-, h,i,.' irro,,-.,,'an-rcr rabir
Lnll rhc hrr,c\ th-11 ,,tten rcstrlr l|onr it'

Accordnrs to Amos Tversky a

availability heu stic is a n
"assess the frequency of a clas
\\,ith which instances or occu
lhis heufislic uorks quile u'e
arc easier to remember 0r im
iDg orr xlail.Lbilitr" to estimate
crs arc ablc to sinplilv u,lu

As with any herLristic, how

rulc .,1 thumb breaks down al
arc mc,rc availablc rhan othcl
or with hish probability, but l
about, because they har,e tak
emotional, and so foth. This
(1) what are instances in whi
iudsmetlts? (2) Do decision
after they have rmagined it ha
ferent fiom other information

AVAILABILITY GOES AWI

which is a more likely cause
by fallins airplane pafts or by
more probable than deatJr flo
Reader Suney fbr your ansv
publicitr- than do dealhs lror
easicr to imagine (lhanks ir
chanccs ol clyirg inm lallinl
thc clrances (,l being killed t
24). In this case, availability i!
Ilcm #8 .rl thc Reader Sur
manv peoplc find suryrising
instance, contran to the rela
'a^re.e.r riaql .FErrr\o. Erp:u ar.nrrs itsnrlEl..r orll 01 ,nl14ror ,.ruPlsur
,ro{ (6/61 'tr'^ots * sqruo:) [ro4 ua{q) lr'ursr,rdrns pug atd(,ad lurur
lrxlt suosudrlrotr tElrorlrlrpP surEtrlos iia{ns rnpe.H Jql Jo 8# me{
to rorp.rpur SurpEetsrrr E sr ,{lrrrcltlrt^E
,rsE. srqr rq .(iZ
r.qurrldrs
^.uanbeit 'sPpo qrErc)
066T IrDqs B Iq pelrI Firrsq ]o se.uErt. .ql
ur::rtl ,rrrEoIJ saurt 0t arr sl,rEd ouDldrrE ;ullFJ LLrorJ SurIp Jo sarm?q:)
,Vl lri (s,Lrr1
s'r Ll,ns srr^ou 01 uEd L[ sIoEqr) rurSErur o] rarsEa
-IP.l J.'e pur
!s],r:,cl aueld.rr surrpJ tllort i^qru:rp op uErtr,{ll:)ltqnd
^rql
.qt to ail ru.rr r.s) suDd a ptdrnr SuntEJ uro{ q}e.p urltr <rlqEqord arotrl
s]? sltrrlr IrErls 31e.r 3ldoad ts()r\t .).reqs E iiq ro su.d .uttdrre :iunlEJ i(q
P.['rt Eor.q s.rErs pelrun .q] u, qre.p Jo esnsr,tteltt .rou rr sr q.ql
IU, V SAO' /IJI'IISV'IIVAV
auorletu.rolur ralno urorJ lua.raJ
-Jrp uo'tru (,lur pr^n sr ,uoH (t) z8ururddErJ rr peulEuit a^rq /irqj j.UE
llsrlrr a.roru sr tur^r uD.^rerrad s-r.r{r:?ur uorsr.ap oc (z) zstu3ujBpnl
PsDrq o:r sPE.t rrlsr,nlJq aql utrrq& ur sasuElsm alr? l"qr\\ (t)
^lqrqElrr^Eratdprt-r
:suoitsenb I .oa8 rr.rql sauruura stqJ qroJ os pur itruorlorur
IIISq rrr lartt osnEroq'.(pr.rer.}rtd uJIEr r,{Eq,{oqt asnFacl ,rnoqE
Iulql o] rah^e. ,(llu.jrqur al ,{.rlt .:^nEraq lnq ',{trrrqBqord q8rq qtra .ro
rn.ro r)t purr,'1.Jqr.sneJ3q /o.r srrqlo uErp 3lqEIrD,\D a-rolu arr
^Jlu.nbeq
srur^. rrlos sasD'q rrrEruls,{s or spel pur u.{op slEorq qunqr Jo .tru
's:luaur
Hpn! rlDg]tp,ile^ .q asr.s.rJqio lq8rttl lq^1 it,tcllllrs or otqE are va
IpLu uorsrrp 'Itqrqrqo.rd puE i(ru.nb3.q .tDrurlsa ol trrrlrqEIrE^E uo Aur
rti)i ,{g srrs^o rouu()rur rre uErlt surSriur Io rrqurrurai or rrrsEe .rp
stu.\r uourruo., 1anb.:uraq s8urql IIE:lla,s einb slro,\\.uslrneq srql
intnsll. Purur ot ]q8notrq .q :,Lllrisur rplrl,\\ q]r,\\
.sEe sLlr i.t rur,\r
uE Jo ,{}rrqDqord ar0 ro ssEp
Jo E
,{ru.nb.rt .{F ss.ssE,,
..1).tt' u,,t't rt rt .q\ u i.u,r.tr tii .,tn. p .r .ll.r rr.t irt qcrc.\p
aq1 '(/ZLl cl'rZ6r) uEtrlellrtE! ta,L,EC puE,{Isra^I sourv oi Surpiortrv
,,'.{1tlq'rll'1'r,,'rLtst.In:q u^\o
sunorl ssiuarLttttl.$.Idij JL
llgdnlH Jo ,{uPlll t,o\r lr1 atqrssod s,
AIflBVrVAV rHl |ruuou ol :^Lrr nter ,illlnsn r
'..uEru,rolJ.d t.nsnun u! at
rn rruo s.rol.'rl rrux'{
^:r3\a sr uEiru .rtt p
-uJI,r letrrd,tr
tL U]TdVH]
122 lt!.trRlsrrcs ANri Busns

Most people llnd ii casier I

Jirber,. lr,rd .'^mJch .!n,<r kill rou3hlr ''i" r'' n'rn\ Arn<rican' -nore rrve' ture A than Structlrir B, and
:,nnu"lh r. hurri. iJr or ' ar ,' 'iJr'lr '' rrd lighrr ing ''l 'rm'
rhes' \ nd'rn lrre A contains morc paths t1
thrn Iomaloi. Llo. A.L"rLlrnts lo l\' r'\\ an'l Krhncm"n rvcrsh, and Kahncman (1973.
,'. ..r",, ,i"',,rr" u''"" e'ri'n"rerhelr'qu'r
.,"i1.,
^. 'n"'r ncol'l' 85 percent tholLghr rhere Nere
,' .rJ],...,' bt hor. e,'t ir I' ro bring rn'rJr(e\ ol 'he <\crrr rn n rrrd' B. The median cstimates they
i'..^,*.., toi"d"",
.ja""r",:'available" anJm"rders are all headljne grab-
paths in Structur B.
;;.;;;;; tha, higher fiequencv causes of death
c."..r, tightntug, ancl diabctes. ln reality, both stixcrures
- u" si",ou.h
..,.1, Structure A, therc are eight i
o,",r,r,iLi,, ."1 at., tcald ro L,L..a i.ras,rcnr. \\ h<,, . \!mple' ol "nc cight in the middle row, and t
e'"nr ,,. i.hc,e,'rlt -,,.. u;5irrl' rrr gen<rdre llran ' \'rrnlc' ' follow-
l
"n"rh- 8 (or 512) possible combinari(
pople thc
i., i""i^".., ,.:..'kv and Kahnemin (1e73) asked
rnpl:'lr r'rneurs ' i' 2\2/2/.2t2t2potefi)
;,,";,". l;;, in.,rpn,l 'Jrnple ^l r<\r in rhe nr
"r.
rlrr' K i' ir' rhirJ a total of 512 paths. Thlrs, h
i, -l,"lil"i' ,r.,i .'"",.r 'r.,rr: u:rh rhi 1'''";11 paths, even though the palhs j
iit*.'r"* li"*r,l* wor.ls with less than three lctters)? of the 1s2
quc',i"n"L.h a rhi'' r0q E<ncrrrr) rhoJah in Struclurc B (the paths in I
,,.;Dr. ;"';.''';:k.d paths in Slrucrure B becalrsc,
i,-i".':a' *i,l rt. t.,r". irr Ihe rrr'r no';r:on u' re rrore proluble
share only about one eighth
ln rrlh, ltone\cr. lrerr rre rpprurimurclt tui'e ''' rrdn\ uo|us \^rrn
Structrre B overlap in half of,
r ir-ifr" tf.'i.a po"i,io" o. theic are words lhat begin with it' Becau-se
,i i" i" 'e."*.,. *".a. that stan with K than llavc K as thc
or thesc
;il; "."1".
l.ii";, mit p"opl" overesljmate tlle rclative f|equencv AN IMAGINATI\''E STUDY

''ii *"v ,lr:rr availabilirv can lead to biases is whcll one tvpe
In 1978, John Carroll publis
i hetLlistic with the act of ima
.f ;;;;;""",t i"".",";'". - 'i""otz" tiran another' Irem #37 ol the Reader easilv imasined elcnts are jud
Suncy illustrates this kind ol bias: act of imagining an event v
Consjderthc tto stmcllrres, A and B, which are disPlaved belos'' appear more likely. He tested
In the first experiment, con
dential election in 1976, slbjl
xx xxx xx vised colerage of ihe presidcr
xx x ,.+ election o. the follo].irg mot
xxxxx "l iects were lold ro imagine thal
Fo wins Lhe ele.tion
lvins mr.h of the Miducst
as Ca

IX Ca, ters 222, and a lisLing ol

Lr cilJer an{l Ford shows F{

I
and the Disincr ol Columbia

The renuiDing cxpe mental s

Carrer wins thc ele.tion as h

insunnountable lead thal
Jr, \ r"r rus ru''rLrP r" "n X overtakc. He wins 342 elcck
Arr,l r J irL'rL"r ..,,rr'.' In rhP ' d
c\ r'"ing r"ru"8r'ur'"'rnJ 'lonl' o''i \ n e"'h fic Dislr'ict ofColunrbia lo 2
U-,.-,."
'.-tfr" .ii-. r-.a.,-.-path connects thrte X's in Struciurc A (one jn
."".-i. Thcse scenarios \,crc cons
,r* i-n-" '"*O ;nd nine x's in Slrucrure B (one in each of rhe the time of rhe study, and sul
"".1 "i
rc' cr, r' 'r' mo" "''h' ' the sccnario they uerc gnen
, ,, rr- .'f,i. f,
,U, q"n'^'.,", , hos m-r\ nirn' Jr' s'ru' rrrr' A'' \r' ' I " Bl
"
tory speech and thc loser's co
"
rSturr IIE,ra^o aLll 'siqJ .11]elap lo uo:si^a.uor s,Jasol .q1 pm? q.a.ds,ftol atl .Jnr.ruls aY arnrJnrls !!
rr^ s,rsuur^1 aql aurSELLrr ol ]r1q'.nr1 sEA ua^6.raa r(.ql ouuars aql asqred arou .ra
lEqt auF.Lur ot ,{tllo tou pals. .ram slrslqns pur eq} Jo srrq aql
1r :^llod 31p o] dn Fou aql aursLl P3}rlrrlsuc,. rr3.^\ "{Pn}s
soueu$s esaql aqr lo q.!. ur aro) g , t.r
ur auo) Y .rnlruls m s,x .
'proc roj sar"ts zz or rrqlunloJ Jo lrulsrq i'{l qrDa ur x (.uo dluo pu.) a
Pue sitrts 8z qt'a'961 .,P-'oc ol srlo^ lProl.iti ztt sul^\ 3tl'rlell.^o x !e or
..ml.nj$ E lo aor d
louuEr tsir'|\ rqt lo diiAs re.u siProd l"rll P".l 3lqelunounsur
ue sp!.q ls"g Pue qlnos iitt u' qr,iuirls sq s" ro!..t. .qt sura r4rei)
\*
YY
:tEql our8Etur or polf,nrlsur rro^\ strrtqns lEtururrcdxr SururEuror 3rII
sarsrs 8 L rrlL^ rar-rur ptru .,,',' ., ,,,,^ *;rt:ll+:?l:#ffY"ilr':;
"+
Y*
suuntotr rapun s.lo^ Frol.ala pue s.lets lo surrsl r pur .ZZZ s,r. e:l
01 s.lo^ Ierop.ta 9t sura aH rsol\ pue lsa$P'w .ql Jo q.nu sutM
*I
proC pu! sar?rs {.{.Luos ptoq or slrlJ .ro EJ se uonrctr iql sut^l prod
:leqt eul8trlt ot plol ere,{\ strei
+
Va
-qns Ieruatulradx. aqr JIEq .{tqsnod 3ururolu aul,^\ofloJ eqr ro uo]rrato
eqr Jo 1r{3ru aql reqrro slFsar uollrota IEquoprsard 3ql Jo cBE.r3 or pcsr^
T"
-r1.1 Suqne^\ rur5Erur or prysE crr.^\ st.rlqns '926I ur uon]ala IErluap +"
rscrd uerucurv crlr croJrq Iep ruo p rnpuor 'luorouodxa lsru aqt uI :g .rnt.urs
-sluarurradxo o^\1 ul stssrltod{q srLll
Flsat aH ,{1a}1 aroru .readde moliq pi^Pldsrp a,e
lt alEur PUE llrlrqElrE^E slt 3sP3J]ur III/\\ 1u3^a uu SururSEur! Jo 1I? '
,&a^ 3q1 sdEq,rrd u ir '.tqEqo.rd rq ()1 pc8pnl:ril] qua^a paur8tur {t,see
lr tuqt pauostoi IIorrEl rua^3 ur aurul8lrlur l.) lrE eql qllr rrlsrrneq ,r.Pecd Jril lo z# ruoll ,r3r{r
Irr|qElrE^E aU parilr.r tv{t r paqsrtqrd llol.rlr3 urlol 'gZ6I rII adll ruo uJri^\ sr srsErq (r1 pe
^pnls
ION.IS SAI.I,VNI5VWI NV eseqt Jo f.u.nbart .^rlelar a
aql sr? ) e^nll urrqt ) urm
.(sruattlete raql .snl?]aa 'I qtlA uaq trql s
Jo JIEq ur dEFo^o s rrnFru]S
uI sqled o^\1 searaq^{ 's]llaurstr rreq} Jo q}q8re-auo rnoqE ,(tuo alEr{s qllN spro^\ ,{urur se arr^\r ,(
v arn1Jruts uI sqld o^\1 'a3E.re E eql uo esne.aq g e.rnpnrrs q sqled atqEqord arour ar3M uoDrso,
3q1 uErlt o^q.urlsP aiour ale v alnpnqs ur srlrEd 3q1) g rrnrrnrls ur ]q8noql {ttPraue8 SOI 'srlit s
rsoqr uEqr ors ol rorsEe o.rE v 3rnl]njls uI srilEd ll qSnoqr u3^3 'sqlEd zsl rql Jo z(sreual .e..qt u
Jo .rirqlllnu IEnbc uE r^Eri s nlrrurs qroq 'snqJ sqled ZIS Jo trlol E prtqt sI st ) 1Eq} ro )l r3i1al
o1 lno sauor oslE qrrq.^\'suorlEurquor lPDuTlod z x z t z t z x z x z $ 'a8ensuEl qsrEug aq1 nt
i z x z )< z orr :rr.q1 'g nl.nJls uI suorlEulqulor alqrssod (zls io) 8 -.^\oIoi eqr etdoal:l pe{sE (tz6
! B x 1l spPrtr sqf i\\or Frqr cql ur rq3r3 PUE'^\o.r stPPrur 3q1 ur rqSra -qtor Jo saldurE](a u],ql alPr
i\\or dor II1 ur ruo,g osooq. or slu.ruclr lqBrr .rE crorll rV ajnlrruls auo Jo satdurExe ueq^\ slueur
uI sqrtd Jo .r3gl1lnu stuEs :rqr urEluo:r s.rr1rruls qloq '.{trtlrar ut 'sel3q
'g a-rntrlr.tts ui sqtrd qleap Jo sesne. ,(.u.nba4 r:
8t put V .rrltrruts ur lqtnd 0i a-raa a^u8 raql salErurisa uELpaur .rlJ g qEiE ru{PEoq IIe 3.rE s.reprnr
arnlrn-4s rq}v 3rn1rtuts ur sqlEd arolu araa eraqt lq8noqi lra rd 98 Purlu ol tu3^r rql Jo srruEls
'rnelqord $q1 Io uorsra^ E qlra psluasard (tZ6l) urllrarql,) pm?,{rls.ra^J ucnb..rJ rqr riErxqsa eldoad t
oq,\\ sluaprod$r aL0 JO g 3rnlrn-rls urrql s{tud.rollr stnr}lor V ain} to SPUDI osiqr 'uEureuqry pu
rrlrls lDql ssan;.{aqt 'aruanbasuo:r u srr puE ig art1trrnts uDq} V arnl sJ^rl c,roru srurEl. 3ullaq8ll p
-.Irlls qSnorq] 3uifttu slllDd azrlE sh lr1 r.Lsaa 1r pug aldoed lsow suPrr.r.Luv rurur se ,rr,n? ,t
tZI rrsrnnsH
124 HEuRls',rrcs AriD tsrASEs

u,as intended to bc as plausible anct as vivid as possiblc. Then, after lub easc." Expcrimc,rtal suUect,
iccts had inragincd a parlicular outcome, Canrill askcd thern to preciict tions of hou, thcv thou.eht tlr
how they thought the electi.rn would actually tlu n out. Shemran and hls collcagt
The rcsults showect that subiects uho imagined Crrler'\linni g ni{i.antli, jnllnerced b! ho!
believecl that Cafier u,ould $,in, and subjects who imagined Forcl *'in e\perinlental subjects scrt
ning believed that Ford u,olrld tin. Accorcling ro Calroll, imasininP, a lhe eas), to-imaginc con.lilio
giveD outcomc made that ()Lrlcomc mole availablc and increasect subsc c(,rtlad the.liseasc, bL( tho
quent probability estjrnates that il \r,oulcl ()cclrr. ally.ared rheDseh,es as L,rs
In thc secoDd experimcnt, CaIToll (19713) asked Urlive8ity ol Pitts- tr(,| subjecrs (r1o Dever imae
burgh students to irr]agioc either thal thcir football tea did wcll du lg th{t imagjniDg an our
clLr.Lc.l
the 1977 seasor or th:1l it did poorlv (Piltsburgh won the national cham- morc. likch; il an oulcome is
pionship tu 1976, blrl thc coach and scvcral top p]:ryers did not stav or it ma\, aclualll rc.hrce lhe p
in 1977). Although ttrc'rcsults oI lhe second cxpe meDl uerc not u11i'
lormly positive, therc \\,as again some i dication that inlagining an out- DENIAL
c<,mc made it seem nrorc likely. For erample, of the 35 subjccls \\'ho
imaeined Pitlsburyh having a goo.1 season, 63 perceDt pr cdiclcd a maior Anothct' cxsc ilr \vhich imagi
bou,l bid in thc' 1977 seasor, but of thc 38 subiecls who imasined Pjlts likelihood is whcn 11,e (,Lrtcc
burgh having a poor season, onlv 40 percent clid so. on the whole, lhen, so upsctlinq that rhe vcry aci
Camoll u,as ablc to conclude thal imagining an r)ulcomc made it appear they might occlu (Rothbalt,
more likely, at1d, since the lime ot his stud-v, several othcr researcher For man! pc.rple, the mol
have replicated and extende.l rlris hnding (Anclers(,n, 1983; Gregot-1, clear u'.1r. ln 1989, I plrblish
Cialdini, & Carpenrer, 1982). ple were askc.L to cstiDate d
teD veais. Aitholrgh Chapter
are tu,o findings rclclart lo
THE LIMITS OF IMAGINATION imagine rvhat a nuclcar iva
what il an outcome is difficulr to imagiDc? lf a decisjon m:rkcr lri.s a\ ajlabjliiv") had n., sis,,ilicr
lrnslrcccsstully to inragioc an outcome, clocs thc perceived likelilrood of !v.Lr to be. Sccond, askjns t
that outcome increase.rr dccrease? In 1985, Jim Shennan, Robcrt Cial- paths to nuclcar wa.(i.e,incr
.Uri, Donna Schwa,rznran, and Kim Reynol.is published a stLidv that signihcani cllcct on frcbabil
e\amined this question. slrDrising in lishL .rl several
Shennan !in.l his associates asl(ed subicds to read aborLr onc of tt'o lance d'pa1h alailabilil! (Ha
diseases that \!crc reported Io bc gtou,ing in prevalcncc oI1 camprrs. Slrrck, & Steinrndz, l977jSl
Both diseases wcrc Ieferecl !o as "Hvposceni.l B,' brn thev were Whal mav ha\.c happene(
dcscribed dillerenrly dependins upon thc cxperinenlal condition. ln the i, asine \\,hich included th
"casy-to-imlrsiDe" conditions, subjects rcad about a dise.lsc wjth con rrembers uas s(, rve$ne e
crete symploms such as muscle achcs, lorv erergv level, an.l fii:queDt u,ar could evcr occur. It so, t
severc hea.l:rclrcs. ln rhe "cli1licul1 1(l imagine" cordithns, sLtbjects react cllccr of iucreascd.t!,ailabiLit
abor.rt a diseasc ith abstract s,"-mploms sucb as a vaguc scnse of clisori Thus, il lhe piDspcct 01 rn e,
entation, a malfunctioning nenoLLs svstem, ancl aD inllamed liver. thcn irrragirirlg its occLLn cncr
Subjects in the control gr()Lrps simplv re.rd the dcscription they lverc
given ol llyposcenia-B u,hcthcr easy or dillicull to imagine an.l VIVIDNESS
juctged horv likcly they uere to contract the disease in thc tuture. Sub
iects in the expc ment.rl groups, on the other hartl, wcrc asked to read A close colrsin of a!ailabilit
about thc disease "u,ith an cyc to\\,ard inraP,iuing a tluee $eek Perio.L how concrete rr imaginable
during which they coDtr:rclcd and experience.L thc svmptonrs ol thc .tis- hal,c othcr mearlinrs. Some
,\llDuollouls lv,Ll ol s-reler ssalrPhh s.rrl.rur)s siiurrnrJur r.\to irrDq srp i)rn I() suroldlu{s orI pa.
uur 1I i Dllotst.ro q;noittt s-r ir-Lrqrall()s.rt.|rur!'rrrr Jo.i.r.oor,\o\ for.r.rl )t.a^\ .arql r SLruGt?t
....r. . . p'rar ol pa{se e.ra,\\ 'Puxq r3q
I |
.r (.t.rr ||.\.upr1r \ \drt,rlr\.r ir, tI,,, , , | . | . , , , | . \
.tns nlq eq1 ur es:srp a
SSSN(IIAIA pulr :u6uur lr1 rtnrgJrp .1
:re^1 .{aq} roqdursip aqt pa
rlr)rl r.roru ruirs lr slrru ]ou,(rtll erua-utr]:)o srr tlrrur8.urr onrtt 'traa'r Pa'u]:)uur ulr pur?
1., esnes Jtix^ u su q
it'ru.P ol sPP.r{ lt I'rqr 8ut,ll'rioq os sr lur^a ur lo p..lso.r.l aLIt ':- qJ
Ir '.Losrp
pairurrpun:-.l.urrlsr iur,\'rrl ,{1lrq'rJnr^u p.suJ.lror l(, tratJa P1?..r slr.lqns suorlrpuor ,,:u
.qr lno p:l.Inrr 3^rLI ^trtrqEqoid
lpru.p sr\l urut !s JI .mrro.rr.\a plnor.n:r^\ luanba4 puc le^:l Israua r
^nlu -uo. rtlr,\\ aseesrp E nroqE p
,\trurEJ Pur:r spueLq asottr Io L()rrpr.u,-ru' rrI prpntrur rtrrq^\--arri,trru' Jrll uI uorltPuo. IEluJurrrodxi
ol PrIsE rr.^\ slr:lqns tua^a.rqt lE(lt sl pJurddug r^Erl ,{ErLr lDqr!\ rrer\ ,(3ql rnq ,,'g-'rru.rsod
N
(t86I l.rtH itosuLIoI i.r.uLt.z iuElr'.r.Lls:z/6t zl.trlur3rs D {rl:].rts sn.trrDr uo etru:tE^ard uI ;
i.ridd:'I 'ssod :tS6 irond r^r-I 1t861 'q.oH)
t T qnrd to arurl on\t Jo .ro tnoqc plr.r ol s1r
rs Jo nFq ur;ursr.r&ns
.rodtul iqt prtttrulnroP aaDq lpql s.,pr1ts |ri ^lltqDIID^B
sr EuIPug .r:ltDI srtJ :-.rELurlsa itrtrqr?qoid uo rrqJr luErurrSrs 1Eql E P.nls]Iqnd sPlo
^lt'rrrrdsJ
ur iltLxlbJ uu pErt (,,IlrrrqDJn,^c qred,,.-u,sDertru, ' . ,).nr\\.rcJpnu ol srllDd ^Pnls
lrJ ],r.qod 'uetuJ.rts rurr's
sno"en lo PoorJrrJIrr .rl1 r.prsuor or Lu.qt alrrrl:^. 'prro-rrs .rq (r1 .rr\\ Jo Poorlrt.lrt PrrrIr.d rqr s
.nr.t.rnu prBpnl ,{ p rt.Irr r{ort u(, tra . rurtrrlIrBrs ou pEq (,,irrlrqEltlr,\E srr.rr .'r)Pr! uorsrriP u lr rr
.uro-rrno,, Sursco,rrur '3 r) .rt,t .q ptnoa rra nr.trnu E rEllx\ JrrrsErur
itpr^rn ol Jldord ir-uDlsir 'lsltrt itrtrqrtnr^D oi lur?^Jli.r sh'uDrru or\1 rrD
3.'.ql it":lrP ur lPnls sftp arlltrlc)(. [r1\ -ra]dpltf itSn()(ttty s'nri{ url
l\.u .ql Lr(trl\ I}\ .rEilIlu E lo s.rut?qr aql .irl'r'lsr ot p)ls'r r.rr^\ :rld
oed 0O0Z Il.rrurrxorddt qrrq^\ ur iipnls D peqs,Lq,rd I '696 t L,t rp.\1 nrrl.l 'i!o;ar3 :t86L 'uos.rap v) i
-nu sr l(.^. ur rprls Jo rldulrxr rura.4x. tsoul eql 'atd.ra.l {uprr ()d sre\rrr.ser r.qlo Fre^5s
(026I 'rrqqrou) rnrtro rLtF,,u {r(tr rrad.hi lr .pi{u .tuoqno ut:"{p
lDrll Iuruap .n spr.t rur!r SunEldrr.luor Io t.D,ue^.qt t1rqt aurllcsdn os 'uaqt 'atorta aqt oo os p'p l
.r1? slua^a.u()s r^IlEliu Llrurarx. sr.rlrortno.Ltl u.Lt^\ s' l,oo'lrtrl'l snLd pau,8Dro, ort,{ slr.lqns
lu.ia.Idt str .sD.r.or loo r(cLu lu.,r. uu iururS.Lrlr qrrqa LLr asr. -ralttouv rotcur p3lrrp:rd tua.rid 9
.IVINSC ort,\\ srrelqns sE eql lo 'atd
-rno uE Srrrur8Erui lrql uorlEl
run lou f.rr,\\ luimurdxr pu
rnr.o IIrr\\ lr rrqt P'xnt't.rrtrt pr^rrrrJd rql.rrlprr,i[Dr11.8,{Em lr uo ,('rls lou prp sri,{!id dor l
.rurSELur or l.lurour aqt iLrorsr^ur ot tln.Ul!p sr :ruornro uu Jr :,{l:rlq .ronr -uDqr IEuouEu rql uo,\\ q*n
."rrddP IIr,\\ rr lDqr ratuurn;i t(xr srop uornro uu SururtEurr rq1 p:pnt:r nu np an\ prp nrDrl IlDqrooJ
uor (E86r) IE rr rcru.rLs .se.srf I[ pJUri]tLUr.rrr\ru orl^\ sD.iqns lo.r] -sllu lo ^lrs,rir\ruo PrrlsB (8
r1t.P oorlrtruor rur6DruFot ltnrql'p.Lll u' .rso'11 lnq .rstrsrp rqt rrerluor rsqns Prstr.,rur PU'r rtq!trx^
(]1 {ta)trt arc., ilJ.urEJr,r i.rr^\ III} tqinoqt uonrpl()tr.ur:r-r?urr ol isui JLll r ilurur8Plur '[(,ur?f, o] ;urp.
rr s)rat lns lrrtlr rrj:rdxg prtr:l]r,{Fuorts .-ra^r slr.lclns |1lu uurd\. urM Prod P.rur8.rur oitN s^ti
Ir,r ,.r 3:,,r u\\,.tr \\,, ir,-tr I\t I .qu Suruur,\ .r.t.rr:) pruriPLLrr o
;'s tdr.rrra srrrlqns Ioituor ]eql pulloJ s.n;lErlto, sIl] puE uELrr,rrqs lrlo u.rnl {l
'sri..^\ ..rqt isr{l SurrnP l:.J Ptno,s isrtt tLt,:r)Ltt iJIl .sort 1o suort t.rDard ol Lu.Ltt P.rl$ orru
'drDs)p pstLrrap .rlrr^\ ot prIsE oslE r.rr.^\ str.lqns tEtu.Luu.d\A ,, asr. qns.r.[E 'uaqJ .tqrssorl s!
SZI rr.rsr''rn!ts
126 l]rtiRrsL!.s AND BrAsns

space TABLE I I.I

intcrcstius or crciling sornelhing is, or how closc sonrclhinP is iD THF POWFR OF VVID TFSTIMC
,,'ri",.. i nttmber ol studics hart sh<xi'n thar clecisiur makcrs arc
!ivid irlomralioll ttran bv pallicl' abstract' or
ott".t.A In"'" b\'
"t.,,ngtt (Nisbdt & Ross, 1980)'
--l.r inlol.nlrlion
\raiistical
ere.re Borgida and Richard Nisbetr (1977) puhlished a No evoluoilon lconiro
"rr,.pf",
.,,*f" ,fr"t.,-trn".-a thc eliectn'encss ol a sLatisrical srrrnman of col
)

r,;"..;;;...,.rr.,rror-"nd.'n,,,,, \,\i., r".'rr"'\'r

rr' n'ii'r lirii oe ir' n'r'rrol"e' N.ie, Ihn b6a s odopied lrom o rr
-,"",.,. i '. .'rrro, I' i ,'l.e'r '\nrrimrr''r $ek on' "i 'hr'". lo.e bn.e .oidltoi p oin.d ro role i sni
,".,"'. , ,,'. i,'it. .i'' " \rr' r' .ouEe5 rhof Jd nudei s i l.o ,.l.oi
:.;i,.:,,i.,,'a,'i,,n,'r,.,,,',, .o y f.m.o rolrbe.ts
""'L11"1rr'd
,'i.'i,,t 'ul ,,'rl .r '-foi'rr 'urrr e'\''lurri"'r' rr"r r"rrr'
'r,1,,-"i,.,r*.",a."" rvh. had c'nrollcd h rhe cr)LLrse dulirs rhe prcvi
ii."ri,l"rl
.,." ;""l.-,".';' 11) ^ lair: Lo'luce condition' ir $'hich subiecis heard
(rhcse
TI{E LEGAL SIGNIFICAN
;;i.";;".".,a to.,,:.tua",'t panelisrs evaluate thc l0 couNcs
iIo' r\''r 'l'he power ol i,iricl inlrrm:
oirr'i... fr,.i .,r rrr, ir r<r r.r.\' \rr'r'I'r'. l'orrrl
"
: : i . ,r, ,'.',i,,n. s,\.,' n ,.- r,,'e "'n'ri'r' n :r'r'L/r'- rr" executives, |oliticians, aud
arca in \vhiclr lilidncss car
r

.
";, .,,'rdirr"r' i" '. r; lr rhr\ ne rlr' r h "d "'r r< ' r''r
'"1""]i,,, " "
....f.*,i,,* "l the coulses. 't'hen, after eilhcr(or, rcadhg thc statistical sun1 Robcrt Rclc\, Bill Thompsol
in the case ol lhe control point in a sludv on thc $,av l
..^," .' fi.,."i.* ,,, tt,e panel presenlation
.',,'..,-."" 1,'- ",,,',i,,.,.i-i .r. .,ll^r'ru"nr' r'e'' : kcJ'o ir'r" u' .lecisions. Thc crpcrimcnt to
rIr r'.', lrlrrr ror.,kcrrtl" hrt'rti In the 1i,:i1 scssion, subjc(
"r.i.]..., z, J,,t,c--.our.. d,nit)g. Tlrc dcfcndant had
Because thc basc rate conciition include't a Dcarlv exhaustile -srLmma
the most "logical" result ivould have bccn for Chrislmas pariv and had co1
-.r".,i"ns,
i"*"i.,.a..,
^, ."i1 .*u1"". to l<,llou coursc recommendati()ns n,(nc oltcn than blood alcohol level had not
bcinc rl.ied or ihe basis ol
i.i.*t,"r... ..r,1.ct.. ls sbown nr rable l1 l, howelcr' Borgida and Nis-
persuaded bv a lc*'
i,.ui i.,,,".r 1""",r'" oPpositc'. Subiccts u'ere more
arguing that the defendant h
Aftel readtug a b ef descr'
,l,rr.,: .i,,a.i'ts t,lri"g'in a panel presentarion than bv a comprc'hensirc
,ll .o",:." ."ut"'ti"u'' ln l'act' subiects tu the basc wcre presented u,ith nine $l
.i"il",i.:,1
""-,,.,,t
."i. .."a-lir.', ala '",, plar to take sisrl;ficarllY mor c of thc reconnnend-nr rhe defendant \!as innocent,
than srLbiects curion about s'hy the delend
; .""."". ". lc*'er of the nonr c'conmi:nded cousesconditi<xr di{lired contairecl one piece ol evicle
ir,. .".i-t -..-p onlv slrbiecls irl tlrc fn'c-ro l:rce
tu the {acc'to lice condi lid style rr a livi.l stylc. F.)
+,-, in ihc control srotLp Srudents
""r)]*i" ,,J 1, \ u.ulJ,,ke,r'J\( 'oeur l'4 rr""''on' rcnJ
,:". "Ji. pR)sedrti(m s nrgulnents wer
(J,o I -*",..1 Jr,.l0.o ri \\e, r'.n./. irnrr.ro(J ''or,r'"' rh 'rr \r'rJ''nr'rrr rlr( on his $ay out the door, :
conlrol condilion. seraing table, knocknrg a b.
These l'csults sho\! that a harrdful ('}|m'li!'idual teslimonials
can out
Tlrc vi!id !crsion ol thc sam{
*.ieh ."-p,"lr*";* shlistic.ll surnmarics' As maDv new car brLvers
n." r*,".", u'ia aboul .rne persorl's ienrn c.rn quicklv erode the O,r his u,a! ,mr lhc Lloo,,
",".i.s
.nnea"r,.. tft"t,.;ght rnhetuise come lr'rm rcading an eDdorsemcnl in knocki.g r botll .l gur
i."'"',,", nq*,," i-Nisbctt, soreicla, Crandall, & Reect' 1976) Similarlv' guacamole on the Nhite slF
\i\i.l .ri,'rr. 'rn ^re'''''dou 'rtr' Simila v, a pallid arslrnent
r,.r:...r-loth.' 5Lllrr.rr \'po'r\. ts< - ''e'i'rd;r'torr r''rroni 'nJr'a
.'".,,'',.,,,f-.ft
;.,.ii"r,L; easiel Lo recali than pallid inlorm:ition' it often h:ts The o$,ner ol the gartage t
""a
disproporlionate infl uellce on iudgments'
his ea$aee iru.k is dimculr
 '.,of)r xt s, r, .sn.tr.q rq;ru rD..s or rprrJl,P sr t.ur r8sqtr'ri sq
^.,r3 sso.r. ripun
rrqr uo!rDlmrDxa E sE't u.rto 1l uoueuroJur
PonrurP! )trrut r;"qr.3IIr lo raun\o .qJ
.rr,,Lu s' uorlLrrolur Pr^r,\ Js'1
:s,ql altl ru)^\ asrlqrP rqr roj ru.udsE Prll:rd 1r
"{FrlIuIIS .tr".'r uEr $'or
'r.dL.r irqs alq,$.qr uo .ldlxrra'il ^\opErts,ri^o
'itqrlnts (926t 'pi.d r 'I'r
Burinltds puD o)Lt .,tr o) dtp Jlouttrln8 to l,\\oq x n_ I)ttro,,)i ur tualuesropua uE iiurpP.i u
Jl 'ro,r \..J\ ' ,.",'..' .i .,rl r. ,o \ rovl,J., rr' '.n . 'l Lr rqr apo.ro ,{f{rrnb uEr uolurl
:sr\o oJ sE nr:r\\ uorr.,r.,otu' etrnrs .tlr Jo rols.Ir^ P r^ r(lJ s'a^nq ftr sy'sa
^\au ^ucltr
Ino ue. slEruourns IxrlPrN
'rooll aqr or lrQq x llurlroul .lqtx;uLI.s
e t.u,e;. pJr.iErrs_ lrnDpualap oql] s,.rpnxs'roof rqr )no iE,t strl uO eql uI slurPnrs ulrr| s.si'ror
:sltp r{ll lurrs srLr.rlrlrl:Ir s,uorlrtrsord -purlrltuo. r.'olu i l ]o.tr3
oqr lo ruo Jo oo,sra^ pr[ud eq] 'eldulExe ,Iod rl/irs Pr\r\ E ro alils PII rpuo. .rEJ ol J.)u aql ur slu
1Dd E ,rJtprr ur pIu.:^.rd st,s qra. prc 'aruoPr^r Jo i.rrcl .o(, P.ull?rLro:) paralJrp uourPuo. irPl ot .1
\ru.'!r.j.''r\ |. rrq, t,".':t \rtr,r .\\lIUl-,J,1\trJr r!l$ ,,qf u,,lln' rr srr.lqns u'rql srsrn',r pap
-rsoid rrll Iq sluaunirre uel1u^\ euru pu'r'ruIoul'r slra tutpualrP eql -pu:rtutuorri :rL!.to.r.rttl ipu
lq^\ lrxrq. .sualap aqt,{q s1u.tun8.rE u.ntjM .ruru Lttr,s pa}tosard ..I \ .sEq It ur sttr.ktus']rq uI
sl-r.tclns 'r.trlrreqr s,lr]rpuajaP rql Jo uorld' rrsaP t.i.'q t rjulpEar.Irqv .rrr slr o{ t. rdluor r? Iq uql uol
'{url.rp,{[DE.t urrq r()lr ptq ]u.pur].p aq1lflp;unrs.rc M{ rr Iq p.p.nsrad :rollr i.r
\' \. ,\, ) )l .qt Jlr JPr\.' ..llU''r\,I'.I. " \r\,r "lr uo I' r r our ,q srN pr't 'r:^.^\oq 'l
aou st:]\ .q Pur '.1L'4 :q1 ]D Palsil urJq lolr Prq te^at loqotrlE poolq u'r\r uol]o 'Tl;ro{
.-nlu s ollcpu.tul
s,lunpuat.P 3qJ r{:r } aiEqrDE c qrrr\ P.rprltotr PELI trul? i:uDd sEtulsl.Iu:) rot u.r..t .^'?q pt'lo^\ {nsri ,,t
p Luo.q aluort:ur^uP .tq,\\ un^rs dors rr uu PELI rrapueJeP rqJ sur\r.rP Plrlu,is :^,I.-ntqre IJlcJu E
IutuP Su lo^ur rsEr ]jnor rr tnr)clr P..r sls.lqns uolss.s rsju Jqr Ul 'a.Lnrq eq1 ur r)'rl ol
suorssrs oal r.\o.trpld Iool tuettlr.rrdx, :r1:l soolsltr.P .|1?r'prr ot palsE r.rr^\ sluap
,tnl {roru s..urnuur uorttLur{)Jur pr\r^ ltq} ,iE^\ oql uo ,(prus . ur rurod lo.rlnor aqt Jo .scr lt ur'ro)
srql PrrEllsn r (0861).,J.roa uof-rcD PL,o'rlosdtuotlf IIIs'\.ird rIe.t.rd uns IErrtsllErs .LIr Surpuar.r.
'^\EI ro rrnor E sr IEro\rd ilorntosqr aq m?. ssauP r^ LlJtlr\ UI ta-'r? {ul? pD..i rou prE.q riqrlru i
euo ,, srePEnsi.rd IPUorssiJor.l,, r.qr.r ,{LLaLu purr 'suPI.IIlod 's.r^rrnraxa ,L r (t) prD :(uoulPuor :rlrr
iurs!,rr^pD pJttFr.rcldD it.pr,{ sL olruul'rolul pl\r\ lo r.,tod aLlJ .r.^N ro 'rjr^\ tlrlt sfrurtD.r tu
^.1 r$q, srs.mor 0t rllt at'?nt
ATOWV]YN3 dO SJNVJIJIN9IS TYCS'I gHI prEJtl sr.rlqns ur iu
asrn.,r aql
-I^..rd ,qr Sur.rnp't.,q.\\
-rDrd,, Luo.'J suortPntrie.srno
pDa.r f.iqr !r'rt,\ n, 'uotlipu
qu6!,r*p rou p p uo! puotr arD, asDq rr u qu.prs ,iq'!orF!., .,,,.,
rcr p.po:uuorrr Jou ",,;:H:li[ii;']11::]
ator or pa!!od udaPuor JrqoFrDl aa.rqt Jo ro ol p.u8rssl .r
aLtr u rru5pirs 1116 L)lrqs N prDlr ! ptD Dp
6r% aua6il^!Drlu6tr
& rpir! . u.rr PqdDPD ! aFDr !trr aroN I3olorl.,{sd r^rlr.cls{)rd iFso
tor sog -nlE^.r qrns;urlua:trd to LrLI
ttr
6et tte (o,ruotr) uo rontD^a oN lor Jo ^lt?uLlnrs tlrrrisrtxts D
r t .rrt:^rtqnd (ra6I) xaqslN p,
09 t/ v (0
sesrnolPePuouuoDruoN $sJnolFPUau,uoFx uo'lrPuo) io 'lJr.rlsq. 'pr[t.:l iq uaql u
srv Nowlsll ct^t^ lo xlMod lHl r.rE sjJlrnu uo6-,rap ltql u
t tt l]8v1 Jrrd:^ L'r si ;urqreuos 3soP
^
l7I rrr\'.rx.rH
128 rlLURlsrrcs
^ND
ErAsEs

Thc'vivid vcrsior stated the same iDlannali(n but

el'lect \\,hatsoe!er, ar.l they
respccl to hborat.,] rcsearc}
'lhe osr.r said his trucks nre grc,' "Be.ausc il hidcs Lhe di ," and hc ar all."
said, 'Nhat do lou \{anl, I should painl thcnr piDlr?" This conclusion should ce
Roughtv half the subiects u'crc silen vivid ar3uments by the dcfense thc superior impact of vivict
and pailiA slatcments bv the prosecuti.,r, and the remainnrs s(bjecls scl'cral reasons 1() suspect tha
receivcd vivicl argunlenls bv thc plosccution rnd pallid aryurncnts bv siluations. Fil1l, Ta]lor and T
thcir general c.rncluslon. For
Altcr rea.Ling:rll l8 statemcnts, subiecls $rcre askcd io nr'lke ihrec wcre ofter Dorc persuasile tl
time ()1 thc rhat, ur.ler ccfiain condition:
iu.lements: (1) Ho$, drunk do vou rhnrk Sartdcrs \vas at the
accidentu (z) Whal is vour persru:1l opinion about SandeB iluocencc slrasive than \\, tten or or:
or euill? (3) If y( u'ere a membcr of a jurv obligatd io l(,llou' the r c Tbompson $'ele (,ell a\larc, t
ol;gullLy bevond a reasonable .loubt," r'hat uoulcl vour lerdjct bc? of a rescarch finding. Thc fa
trhcse tt ,cc itrae,ncnts u'erc later alcrased 1o form one overaLl incler ol crpei eDl can be explained
how guilty subjects thoughl S.trdcrs \!as.) This endcd the lirsr sessi(,lt' by a tnre abscnce of tLe rivid
io relur n forlv cislrt hours later' lor rhe second was collounded Nith .nhcr l
""a
pal1 "i,r,j"it"
"*," u"t'e.i
ol lhe extrcriment. 'lalkrr and Thomps.,n rhcms(
' whcn subjccts arrivcd for rhc second session, thev {'ere askcd ft) tory scttings worl( against ih
rvlite brief clescriptions of as manv ol rhe 18 argumerts as ther- could materlal tlnt per)plc migllt n(
remember. Thcy rtere also askcd to in.ticate ll)cir cur|cnt opinion on nral scriously un.lc'rcslimate
the s:rme tbrec queslions thel' had arswcre.l .tt the en'l ol the lir s1 ses In thc last an.il),sis, then, it
sioD. The instructions c\plained that subiccts di.t not recd ro 'rnsu'cl the in at lcast some sillrations, br
same \vay thcv hacl .llrling thc Ilrst session, an.t that thcY sbould make in kccpirlg sith thc avallabi
theirjudlmcnts as Lhough rhcv '!ve.c dccidils the case now li)r the first may increase probability ar

what Rcves, Thompsol, and Bo\^'ci loun.t is thal vividncss hacl no

significrDl cffect .rn iud8 rcnts ol guilt chlring the lirst session, $hen CONCLUSION
s;bjccts hx.l iust finishecl Ieadnrg thc 18 .nLLments, but thdl it had '1
substantial cffect lirrty-eiglrt hours latcr. Subiccts in thc vivi'l prcsecu ln many cascs, the availabil
tion condilion latcr iudged the delcndarl b be sjgnilicantlv moi guiltv estirlates of iequency and P
rhan di.L subiects in the pallid prosccutior colldition lteves, Thonlpson' avail,rbilily heu slic can lea(
and B(,u,cr (.1980) i:xplaincd this dcla,vecl cffi:cl iD lcrms ol livid inlor- ple, public heahh .lepcnds
mation beins easier 1() ltmember than pallid inldmation' Thus, as in dreact diseases s ch as stoln
the casc ofBo,gida arcl Nisbell (1977), !'i!i.:L inlorrnatiou ultimatelv had eascs is under.estimalcd, pei
more inl)uence rhan pallid illfornralion' prcsurnablv becausc it rvas rcia- measLlrcs (Kristianscn, 1983)
tivel-\, rnore a\.ailable, or c.lsier t() rctl.ieve. deatL arc overeslinl,rled, ait
mor c cornmon daugcrs. Som
Amcdcans overestimate lhe
A DISCLAIMER abroad (Paul,,s, 1986, NoveDr
One wav t.r co rect this pr
As c(,n!hcjng as ihese rcsuhs rrc, il is uortb noting tbat onc prtnrinerl
underestjmaled dangers Nil}
revjew of research oD rhc "lilidness eilcct" fburrcl rehtilch litlle sLLp-
poil 1;r tlle hlpothesis that !i!id nrlirmation is more inlllrcntial than sitc dilectjon. For cxample, I
pallirt informaiion. In an exhaustive revict' of laboratorv sludies (!r the a public inlormation campa
stomach canccl with death r
vivi.lness ellecl, Shellc'y Tayl<r and Suzanne ThompsoD (1982, p' 178)
finrn.t thal most rescarch bacl tumecl Lrp mlxe.L Icsults (']r I1o vili'Lness as homicidc or car acci.leni
'dya,\. slHJ,, :.rr?trep rqlJrlu sp.rDoqllrg slu.pr.rE ,r'rr jo .Pr.ruoq sc ssauPnri .,u -,(, sltnsi,r Prrr
rtrus \-].auDp P.z,r,tqn.I ltqsq trloq srlE.r qrEeP rprr\\.rr.uctr rp'rtuors (8ZI d 'Z86l) uosduortJ :
ruor:l .tu lltl1?trour .qt srlrduor lDqr u3rEdruEr uortElr'.'olrrr -r'tcl']d rr JrJr uo sarPnr:- Jo
^lrotr]"roqPI
qrunEl ]qErtu i].rros r.ruE:l uErr.r:ruv rLF '.rtdruE\r.roJ uorlrelP.t's L'E(11IErluanuur .roLU sr uo
-oddo.qt ur pa^ro.rodstu .jc lEqt slEcjqt qlr^\ srr8u.p palrurl:^.r.plrn clns rplrr ,(l:\qrt.i funot .,
pue -.re^o sul'rEdruor Ipr:)itdxr sr Lurtqord sr([ r..]r ()r or /ipa .uO tu rtrloid e o trql Surlou q
^q (tZ,'iqurr^oN'986 rsoln'::d)
1 P.(, rqt
I.^Er Suunp s)lrEuE lstio,riil Jo ,r.r8uEP Jqr JlElullsr.rr^o luPrrLruY
rErp 'aldurExr.roJ 'prlsr88ns J^Eq s.rrlr.r,\\ lroS sro8ur?p ur)LLru)tr.rorlr
ruo{ Pslrr^rP rq IEtrI SurPunt foe u()ilua]lP iPatrurl:-3ra^o are qllap
Jo sJsrlEr lurnbrJJUr rnq P,^r^ j, i{tlrt,u,s (t86 L 'ussutrlsi.!)t) srrLtsD.tu rrtr.r sEr\ 1r :snEr.q itcl!uns
.r^rlu3\r.rd olul ot it.)trt sset :q ltl\l atdoad'palcutls.rapun sr sasDs Prrq ^lirEtuutn uortrrur{!ur
s'p asaltl l() arl'aprru' aitl I r3]rn?r qrcttlots sc qir'ls sasDesrrr pEo,rp ur srr'snrtruorremrotu' Prtl
Luorj salp-r itr|I()u Io ss.ua-Lrme u1r uo spu:d.P rltlEaq .qqnd 'ald lojur Pr^r,\ Jo slu.rrt ur rrql
Ip\J rii|.tu.,r r;tn[r.r (r.crq ,.\.t.r..ii. f,,r | ,.r. ,! i ,1 lr \u 'oosdrrorlJ,'s.r(au uorlrpuo.
aql 'q8rloql isuorturis- au)s ut ltrtrqeqord pulr,{.urnb)q Jo srtEuluse rttrn;l r,roul lpul?:)rlrdrs .cl
.tp-r r:rr ,{tqruosrar sapr^ord rqsrineq ,{trrrqElrr^D Ip 's.sE, lrrEur rrl n..sord pr^rr\ eql Lr ntr.lqn!
e P.Lt 1r I'r!r 1nq'stul)tttnt:.rx
NOISN'IJNOJ uslti\\ 'iuorss.rs lsrg .rll SLrLr
ou PtLI ss.ruPr.\rr\ rEqt sr pu
'srldLLIrrx.
prrlEd uEqi aroru salErrpse ,!.uanbo{ pue iltlrqEqoid rsEr.rtrur itL! ls-'rt .ql .rq .sEr itlt ilirr
tua,{e uE Jo soldurExJ Pr^n 'rrisrrn.Ll lrrlrqE[r^E rr]l rttu\ :r-urcla.I ur 3i1Eu Pt']'xls^\orr leqr pur '
'osN Polltrrtl r.rE rdo.s PUE rzrs str tEqt tncl isuortenlh .u)s lsP.t tr u' stll .'.I\sue ol ^rql
Pr.u lou prp st
slsrxr F.JJJ ssruPr^1^ {t lE(tt itolrt slrl..rs lr 'ualtt \-h-IteuP lstt all} ut -s3s tsrq aqt lo Pur iqr lE p
rJlt rIl]P ut llrtrerrrlrl Pr\r^ lo rtrniIlur aql altLurlsarepun {lsnoues,iErI uo uorurdo lu.r.rn.r irJql al
qrrEoss.r {rolp.()qet '..uaH . r.ruar .([rLu.rolr )q8rttt et.toed ]fiIl IDr.ratEtu
Plnor ,(:qt sr srurlun8jD 8I
ui) uorllrotrp Sursrlrol Iq t:).[. ss.uPr^r^ 3rl] 1:^uft30 l.ro.^\ sirllrlas,iror lr1 p3rls1:r .r.^\ i l rrorssrs
E.roqEl rEqr rrrrtrq or uosr..r sr a,a,I is.^t.su.rt] u(,sdlu.,qJ prla.iolll?.l
iq n1o pilurod urpSr puE '.{ltrlrrd sroltrtt -rallio rtt!,r p.punoluo. sa,\\ Puor.s l)rtt rol .r.tut s.nroq 1q
\sll ill\.\ \) 1.,\ L j l\l.,ll l\'f l\)r])'.l,ltll1l1 Jq,o J'llJ..lc Jl,,l . (q 'rrorssrs ls.q rqt f.fnr srqt
sp tllslr adxe aq] rLi saau Iq I:,\\ sB lsni paureldra eq u'rr lurlrrl.lr.lxr
.to {.Pur itDleno .uo (,r(I o}
ua^I8 D rr lrlla ss.upn\r^ E pug ol s.rntrEJ eq.L nurPug rt.,rErs:ri E to z.q trrP.rr^ ,rno,{ pt ,^\ tPq
,r7.rrsq, erir rrEldxs or s,{8,\\ i(uEtll arE ar.qr 'rrD^\E IIr$ J.rr^\ rrosdruo(]:L .tn, r\r r\ollor o1 patr;,tqo i
Prrc jolial sE 'puorss 'suorlEluesard IElo .ro uruux\ uEqi r^rsErls .rro.rrouur is.rspulrs tl](xlx u
rad srolrl er.^\ snorlotrraser.l prdBloapr^ suoqrpuo. urEl,rrr jrpun ilELlt .rtl Jo rlurl 3rl1 lr sr?^\ s:rrPu
pm? 'ror11?Lrt.roJrr l:]1?rlsqE .ro IerrtsqEls uEql a^rsDnsi;rd r.rour u:ruo r.rJ,\\ r..rqt JIEIU ot Pa)ts! .r.^\ s
ssrrorsq ase. rErp purloJ,{aq1'stdurExr .roJ -trorsntruor |rirur8 .rri(tr
(r1 suoqde.x. ,{q srlr.Lunilrr p![Ed pu! uo,
Jo r:rqunlu E prrou uosduroqJ puEjolitJ Js.rd sur)rt.r1th
,ruos rsErl 1E ur srslxr tr.lJr ss rPr^r^ J(tl trrll trrclsns ol :^uosE.r tuan.:' sFrtqrts Surururur.r Jrll pur
rjE J.rrll rrtutl rluts r\1 lv uonrrulroJrrr Pr^r^.lo lrDdrr rouadns aql .s r]l)P .Lll .iq sturlrlffirE pr,
:iururiruo. sluiuilpnl IUE,rJdLUrl {lurEur. ptnoqs oorsrlt.uotr srqJ
,,atud u
" [': ],
()l l.a.lsa.r .'t p!! ,, rrrp rqr !.P'Ll t,.
ruslsrxJ Jr )E.,\,, sE,s lrrjJr ssruPr\r\ ortl 'qr.rr::3sor
LIIL\ ^:rolE()qrl
lst.t lr ilnql ]raPnFU()tr a(rt.r.ql {aq1 puE'tra^aosltrl^\ l.aJJ)
6Zl ])fi.sr!ir!H
l-t0 HlLrRrsrl.s BIAsriS
CHAPTER
^ND
12
MOIIF- PEOPL]-] WILL DIE FROM STOMACH CANCER TIIAN FROM
CAR ACCIDi,NTS." Such a comparison would urdoubtedlv lead people
to see slomach mor causc of dealh than lhey had
thoup,ht (although ii m.U also have the unwxnted eflect of reducinc fre
quency cstimales of tr.tl'lic latatities). Travel agcnts use the same straie- PROBABILII
gy ruhen they pr.rmote t()tL|ism by poinrirg ont rhal liavelers stand a
gieat., chance ,,ldving ir a imf6c :rccident ovcrseas than beins killcd in

Whcn it concs ro probability and fiequencv estimatcs, no heuristic is Probabilitv and risk a.e eu
nrorc centtzl than the availability heuristic. Nonethelcss, it is important clouds abovc oul heads, in t
to kccp in mind that thc availabilitv heur.istic is onlv one faclor influenc olhers. Yet risk is olten dift
nrg probability ancl {rcquency judgments. Chaptei 12 discusses several lems tu probability can be er
orier facto.s ihat atlecr probabilit!' estimates, al1d it offers a ntmber of the infamous 'game shorv pr
suggcstions on how to nrinimize c.,minon sources o{ bias. Savant (1990, Scprember 9, l
Suppose vou'rc on a gane
doors: Behind on. door ls
door, say No. I, and thc
oPcns anoiher doo., sa\ Nr
"Do vou $,ant to pi.k doo

Beforc rcadins lu her, tal

Many pcoplc respord that
doors. Thev rcason tha! ther
opened one, and that tLe car
drx,r's. This is not, horvever, t
The corect answer is lhr

When you first choose doo

chance that the prirc is L
bchnld oie of the oLhcrs. I
Il ll,c pize is behind N..2,
behind No.3, the host sho$
the p.j1c is Lreliind No. 2 o,
dor'r switch, you wiD onlv i

(See rable 12.1 for an (,veni

CONFUSION OF THE IN
Hcrc is another difficuli prcl
iust exam;Ded a \r,oman for t
breast, but based on maly yr

'lorr nn\ .l il,'., hJpr( trr. rdJ

Ett
(686 r ) motd ruo Ll prr.ritl) -rr. r.rdlqr sry) Jo suoo
'od
ort^1 sro!s.t(rd r(rtsrllrstp Jo r8rxLr.-rrrd .(t] 'rrurutsl Jrr?
oq,{ suriu.rt Jo uorl()dord.rtl 's .3r r.r},Lrn Lrr.rPlr(ti rllri\ s.riLttollr 3(lr
rj.(,s Jo .3!lu.rrrd rrtt sP rsrr\rP !. srlr::urrtsJ ur PIurLUnroP u.rr.l suq
F,rt , t,r., (irr\ h_rt ,,',1i,r"\ I'r': i\.r. rtro itJr.'l ,,r\
i.nt'r,\ ;Lrrl
,, roq.Lnr,, ro
() ur uror I u.soP
'Pls t'rur;' pur SLrLiortrLLE,,
ro rh lr.rulsnlpir luar:)rltnsrLi aql 's! t1jql ,,Iuatut:'ntpr
to srural rll uouauoraqd s[11 perr!]dx: ulrtu.uqiry Puo l)ts.rl)^J ]ue:).r:d
sz lo .rEurrlsa u.rpsur 1? 3^1?; 0t uo pepurt .tp.:u aql tttoqa rol spslqns
PuE rua.rad sf Io:l1?trlrts3 rPrpeur '] e^Di,{11rt.nbesqns 99 uo p3P ol
atpasr :q] qrq^\ m ro4lPror lrtreltl :dre ur .,1 P.d,ss1r litroop i]l
ar..^\ oq^\ s}$tqns (t161) itru')uqry teim?(r Pulr i)tsraal sotr'v {q Pa
-rrrlpuo. s'r^\'sllnsr,r Iu.uu:Pr;urpta 'rnpsrord D rl.rls 1srli'lrEJ rI
-lu:rr.rid srtrullrs. ilrLrqtq.r.rd s.rLr.n
sz Jo :r1Dturrs. uD qlt^\ Puo.ls.i r1oli 'lqanoql .uos r.rlv
'sErq Jo I.r'ros .rrrllour s.
asuoIl'rN
P.lrun rqr ur srurunor uE.I,uv Jo rsElu$,rid rrrL :rqr sr rEqr1^ lo irllIqIIIDJ iql arors.LaPu,'
J.rolu rq LtiinoqrlV pJruDg sr Llr.Lqord
tsnur lr ,{lulrru.r ,{Es no,( 'r1oI,\I a0I uEql ssil ro .rJlEr suotlrN p.run \:r Jro IIl]s puu sro1i)r,.J l|uol
r;ur lnr^r: PU'r ss.ruar4]rtursi.Ld.-
II ur srtlunor uErrq\r Jo r:lcluJ]iid Jt sI :qsE jJtF.rErsJ.r ,qr
f.ddol! srq lr3\i{ irll.rruv 99 uErtt rr\1r.r 0t uo pLrEI Jlr^\ JUnrr()J IB'nlrrr r(ll iIr sJslrq es:q]
^()LLi isu()rlPN . trr :-il'rLurls.r Isr.r PrrD.\lrtrqD
]o ta.qa .LF Lo(ntr\ ()t (lo!:r3d r Poroil i)ql lnoqrr suoil!.rnb
pere,\\su1r lai lou stq oqa uosra.I E'uosr.d r.qtolnr .rr rl.ri 1!)N
.rn nol. IJo pur'.urrrnr)^
roJ no,{ s$ruqr '.slLodsar rnoi sp.Lo:rar .L.rtrrras:r V tu3.-,a.1 Sr lo alru
-rls. mr rltr^\ Prodser no,{ }q8noqt eLros -ratty usll(rrtrN p:lrun .Llt ur
$ulrilor ulrrLllY to.aDtu.I.d t.)rr.,.rtt:-r '.p.)tsr tr.u anr rt()r'trLIM .uo uo.Ln tu.;urtn()i r,'! sru
's9 Llrq ) :'s.t:-r .n-et u..-ra.I . q I ..1 iou Pt'1olls ll Inq i(s.ssol
lcrJr r.rns rrD non ss.tllr:uou lnq'lrl.,qE qrnur lnoqr:arq noI ,{ll'r.I1sl1'rrs lo p.sLrdtr!)r s
^t,rrEJ rq uur inbruqr)1 suLJ (sr8
.r lr:ru c loN as9 ucr ssrl .ro.rrl\?riir suoqDN P:1run 3qt 1lI srr.uuno.
Lrurr -s9 uo Lurlu srLlt rrD.4qns puD (czt'
uv Jo r8uluJr.rid .rrl1 sI :uorls.nb E rllln\ pJruoguor ..rlr no,{
sPurrl rtPr r r\r 'urds E ur^rb'$ Iirqr\\.rp.rrrl PUE 's.rrqunru Jo i(Ir.rrlr lt rl\rJnriElsessot ii.Lrll
uE \1r^\ prun sr.I4rlrr :rd Il.l -3rrrllio] Io I.III\ D sr nol Io trro4 uT Lrror E Jo ilrrrquqord eqt .t!
6-unlnsr.r Jtll lrlrtqns pmr ',
rllnrr 'I ruo,g !1]rtuqsi,{tqr.
srf sr luJrr Prrnodllrotr erLl
Pq(',d |ruq D .roj) 0S lq 0!
lo .In aprur lur^r punodulol
purt ulotr r i(, il,trqrrqord o
-IN]WISNIAV sa0rtrqrqo.rd rsJrlt lldllnur
iuertJ :ruotc tur^r .ldurs
CNV CNIUOH)NV tr
rrs. ()l sr ib-rtr?.its |Iisn E
' r'a slxa,l. .tLIurs tu.purdr
puno.luror Jt .stuata ald
il. U]TdVHf
146 HnrrRlslrcs AND BIASES

I11 the lo 'r .]rol condiii

and the share of so'ip oper?s calried bv NBC (QuattroDc' Lawrcnce'
the clunces of a nuclear rval
warren, Souza-Silva, iiniel, & Anctrus, 19s4) Anchoring has also been
found with nonnumcricril problems (Qtattrone, 1982)' !-or example' Urior u,eie greater 0r tess th
Georsc Ouattrone and his colleagues (1984) showed that randomlv tion il aske.l whether the chr
assigicd anchors, in the lorm ol positivc or negative essavs' can aflect Prcent (or iD (ne version,9!
onir;on. ab.rr rhc sAl I ll arm- 'orrrnl rr<rrt' An'l Daniel cenon' this question, they Nere aske
ter ms, ol the er4./ chances o
,n.l Pl,ilio Pedke ( l"8or ui*ot<red hrr arbrrrrn an'hor''cn influen'e
peoplc's ;stimates of how rvell thev u'ill perlorm at vadous problem
dition, respondents lverc ne
u,cle simplv asked to give the
iul,l,'g tost.*..ti-"tes which in turD affecl thef pe'sisterlce in work-
ins on such tasks.
"s,,-,i.insh rhe elle( l\ ur rn.huri.re do n"r di\Jnncar u irh lrlurreran In ail valiations of thc su
i.,""ri'.. r".:,c-ur,.\ (t\(rsh\ & Knhnel:rn. lo74: Uri"h' & Ander on likelihood estimatcs of a r
ly asked rvhether thc prcbabi
son, 1989) or with oiLtrageoLLslv extreme anchors (Quatrrone et al
198,1). In one expcrnnent, OLr.rttrone and his associalcs
(1984) solicitcd I pcrccnt sLrbscqlrcntly gave
the number (,1'Bcat- provided $'ith an cxplicit an
numerical cstnr.atcs a{ler frrst xsking whether
"*aci or asked \\,hether the probabilitl
les records tlrat ha.l made the top 10 lell abovc below 100'025
was nrorc o' percent later gave estimatel
aibums, \,helher the averagc price of a college tcxtbo()k
;n San Francis rcspondents $,ho were not gi
less than $7128.53, (n whethcr the average tempetature
sisnilicantll, influenced by r{
co was greatcr or less ih:In 558". Quattr'"'"'""sc'r'h lcam fourd ihat
.t.,,.dkl hiph anchor valucs worked just as u'cll as more plausible nuclear war occurring or nol
ancho,'values. l-rorn rhis rcsult, Lhry conctuded that anchoring is a tunction of hou, familiar rcsl
robust phenomenon in \vhich thc size of the cffecl grows t'ith the corceruect they rvere about m
At leasl two implications
discrcpancy between the anchor and the "preaDchor estimate" (1he aver
a!e crtrm.'r. oe,,nlc o'l"r bel"r' bein3 '\pose'r ro "n c\p'i' ir an'h^r) that include arbitrary nurr
cffccls. F., cxample, a natio
rri,rii th. erte.r .i,che. rn a.'rrprori, l.\el l, r.rre rl-c'e tin,lrng' 'ng-
pe., rh"' nceoriiror,. JJ\cd:'er:. poliri. ran.. rnd urhcr p(''u^ion 'pe- dcnts: "Would voLr supporl ,
l;-,h.t, *ilr"ee..,allr bc no.r .u., e'.lLrl Lrt .r:\rn; nu' e\r r ne iniridl againsr nuclcar missiles and I
pcrccnt ofall Soviet ruclear r
Lramcr, 1986). Bv mentionir
centage by most standards),
THINKING ABOUT THE UNTHINXABLE later estimates of the cffccti'r
advocates use i{orst-case or
UnfoflLLnately, most studies of anchoring have tendcd to lbcus on issues
tions, they mal, inadvertenth
about which pcopte have liltle farn;liaritv or concem: the percenlag ol
position. For irstance, in 11
Afi-ican nations in rhe Unircd Narions, soap opelas carried bv NBC'
rnTres arsued: "A defense that
fem;rle chenistry professorl, and so for-lh- Relativclv iew studjes have
et nuclear amenal mav bc iud
focusea on -Ucther estimales car b.: anchored when peoplc care deeplv
about the topic, whcn they have prcviously thought about the issue' or
tive potential of fie weapo
u,hen thev know thc area iairlv wcll. Perhaps the most extreme cxample
Febrrarf 13). Contrary to his
an anchor lalue that stutegic
of such an issue is the likelihood of nuclear rvar' In contrasl to othcr
roni.' ir rhe.r'chorind Irrer.'rur. .he'ikelihood "l nu'lcr tar i'rn
i'..,c m,"r peonle hur. rlre,ch rhorrtshr '1"'ul rnd ' rre ub"u' a cteat HOW R]]AI IS REAL ES']
ieal. The question is, then, whethcr a manipulation as simple as prorid-
The ellects ol ancholing are
ine a high or low anchor vahre can alfect beliefs about whether thcre
such as the likelihood ol nu
wiil be a-nucleat rvar' ro ansu'er this quesiion, I disf ibuted scveral vafi-
defcnscs. For crample, bndr
ations ol an anchorjng surllev to morc than 2000 irspondents betweer
anchor appioprialions lor th
January 1985 and May 1987.
uorrErlo8Ju E ur suoilrsod prtrur puE ilxru Ir.roJ suortBl]dorddn roqruE
I(u ,rEr.{ ruo trloq srorlrlrdorddt tlrlJ:lpnq eldtuExa roJ .sasuolrp uaa,\\taq slraPuodsaj 0002
ratErls Jo sscrro^qreJJa eql ro -.EA lrot.nr Jo pooqlaTr oql sr qtrrs rrE lrrr^rs Palnq'rrsrp I iu
salatrltl:^. I]reroqts or P:Irull ,{a.^\ ou ur .re SuIJorl.uE Jo sl.aJla aqJ sraqr r3r{r3ql\1 lnoqr sle[aq
-Pi^ord su eldurs sD uorrElnd
;atvrsq 'Iv'{u sI .Ivgu ]ltoH tearS e lnoqe .rEr Pue lno
ur sr rcm rEapnu Io Pooqrr
'3^rlr3jl. 1uD.rod 66 .re sasratep rrSole.ns leql anlE roqru0 u1l reqro ot lsErtuor q ..ru,\\.lu
qtl^\ sraprar p.p'^ord rs{utunlor srql iturE srq ol ,tl]lruo:l (tI ,{lurlrrl.J eJduEx. aula.qxa lsoru rql s
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I^oS aqlJo lurued 66 tsurp8rr l.r1ord uE. luql esuatrp V,i :p:rnitre sr?/rrjr .^Dq srrprlts il.^!qad
'lgN ^leJ se.rado
.{q p.uie.
7.rot 2N erlt roJ +sLrltunlor lsi)n:l E 986I ur 'eruutsur -()d uoDrsod dE
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Isod rleqt etE4srllI ot saldLutxr rsE.-tseq ro.si?:r ts'-()^\ osll srlEro pE sonss, uo snroj ol PrPusi a^E
uoq^\ 'Puorss ses eJap .)lF:rlE.ns Jo sseu:^r1.a]ra .Lll 1l) soleulso.rrlDl
ro,true ,(l3urEr,^\rn ,{olu u(),rs.iltr c q:)ns (sprepu1s r:-olu iq o8eru.:) Al
rad qSrq lrr^ e) ]ue.red 06 t().rnA,t r Suruorruau,{{ .(9861 ,raluur)r
, LrteLIpiS u' psIr) ,,asr.quloq pr'r? s.trss'ru rErtrnu lar os IF to l a:rrad
06 u^\op loorls or clqe [ere^\ ]r I I sraqK)q puE s:rllssrru rel.nr lsrn 3e Il?rtrur rurrlxa lno iurlels ,{
rrrls,{s aarsuij:rp E ptrnq or ldtllou s n r rioddns no,{ ptnor\,\,, :stu.p -ads uorsrxrsred ,r ,s
llo puE
-rodsar palsE i,86t ur prtrnpror [od PuoDEu E 'ilciurEr.e .roJ s]:relta 'ans sStlrpul] esrqt ..rrr JI I
P.pueiururl a^Eq ,{Eul seruer:J3r trtruarunu ,tErrqiD epntrm lrql (roqru lrr[dx. uE o] pasod
suoqsanb 'ts.ru sttnsr.r rs.rI ruo.g slrorlDrldurr or\\1 rsEel }V -r3^'r oql),,rrmrls, rorti)ue..r
JF\
^\ollot
ID)I\NL .q] qll^\ s^\or8 lroJJs alJ] J
ro sanssr rrairnu qrr^\ r.r.r\\ slu3puo.Is.r r1,ltrurrt ,trorl Jo uoll.uq E sr SuuoqruE lrql psPnlrrr
^\ort
u aq or ulses lor prp iiaqt puE 'Surirntrro jou .ro :rilrlr:ro .rE^\ r.pnu rtqrsnEld .rour sr Jla^r se
rr Jo stu,rrl ur tsDr .raa :'.l.iurlsr .q1 r:rqleq^\ ,(q paru.nuur .{tluErgru8rs leql PUnoJ LuEel q.,rB3sa.r s,3
lou r,rrrY\ serua.reJJrp esaql .roLlruE uE ue^ri tor ara.s oqa sluJpuodsor ur
srsurJc m?s arnr edurt:
,{q uo^6.sor{l mrqi r.rtBrl] J.rrl\\ tErl} s.ielurisa.^pB i El lu..rad
{ooq}xa}.8.lto:
(66 ro) 06 ueqr ssat r.r .,.tr.r8 sl?.{ rE,\\ lo ,{IlrqEqord aqt raqrar{,s prlsE sz0'001 ,l\otaq ro r^oqr II3J
lsrrl ..r3,\\ ori.^\ sruapuorl$r se.r.(ta lroqru lDqdx. ur qtl]s papt^oJd lEeg lo.requnu aql r.qla'{i\\
lou e.'ea oqa Jldo.d uDqt $leurlse ro.{ot r^EE iipu.nbrsqns tu.r-red I Palp{os (f86 t) ser,rossc s[J
I
m?q} ss.t ro rrlEr,I:r' sEr\\ rE,^\ ]ratrnu lo llllrqEqord orl] rerll.rl,r pa]tsr il P ]e auo4lrno) srorl.ur r
-lEIlIt'r .ra^1 oqr\\ sluopuodsed Ir^1 Ir.trnu E lo srlDtrlrrse pooqrtalrt uo rapuv * lqalrr\ :rz6l ,ur?Lu
etrtanuur 3uo.!s E peu.xe ;uroqrur:r '{r, ns rq} Jo ,&EleroLu qll,\ljaddeslp 1ou
l3pnu r to saruEqr :rqr Jo aluur'tsa tsaq .rroqr .^r3 pr{se ,{tdtrlrs er.a -Iro^\ r' arushrsjed rrrql pa
pr uoqsanb rs.rg rqr qlr{\ p3}ursa-rd raneu r.rr^\'r1srrropuodser ,uorlip -rLatqord snouE^ rE LUroIad
-uo] 1a41uD au'prtlql e urrE,\\ ruetrnu D 1() sorupqr rrm, eqr Jo ,srtlrel aruanBur uetr sr(ni.rl ,{Je4rq
.8Elua.red ri 'alruuso rs..l rr p a^r8 (r1 paltslr a.r.,( .{.qr ,uoqsanb srql .uorrJJ I.ruE(I puY .,{lPr.r1 l
irorsra^ ruo ur ro)
Pr.r:r^,\suE pEq stu.puodsr.r r.uo (ru..rad 66 ]uer.d Fa+tE uEr is,{Esse r^qdau ro
06 uEr0 ssat ro relEal8 ,,rr.\\ rE^\ e Jo sa:)rreqr aql r.q1rq^\ palsE rr uoq ,(FropuEr rEql pr^\orls (tB6l
-rp1t6 )oLl)ut1 48 / aw uI puE 'tuarr.rl I urqt ssnt ,rc rxEef are^\ uolun retdluEx. roC .(286I ..uo4rnr
lrr^os aqt pua satDts p.lrun crp ua..^\13.1 rlrl\ rtapnu E Jo so.uErJ, .ql uaaq osle s'rq jruuoq Y (t86
.'.Liroqr\ sluepuodsar palsu i.,uns ,ll1 uotlrplro. ]owLt" t1o| lyt ul iaruer\\E-I !.uo.qlEno)
lsN
Zfl rNrNrsrrdY oNY 5MroHrN!
148 Hr:rrRrsfl.s AND Rl^sns

may anclDr later ones. Thc|c is also eviilencc tl1at telling jur.rrs to con- TABLE ] 3.]
sicler !cr.licts in an orclcl that runs fi1)m harshest to most lcnicnt-clrr' THF FFFFC]S OF ANCHORING (
rently slandard practicc in murder lrials lcads to har-sher vcrdicts than MEAN ES]
telli,rg thcm to corsi.lcr leniert verdicts 6rst (Gleenber.q, williams, & Apporent Approised I
O'Brien, 1986).
tislins Price, S Volue, S
AncL.nins can elen influence real cslate p ces, rs Grcgory I

NorLhcrali and Marga, ct Ncale (1987) h.1vc shown. Irl lhis stlLdy, dozeDs I t9,900 114,244
ol r.eal cstate agenls wcrc eiven aD opPortunitt, to toln- oDc of two hous 129,94O 126,772
es itr sale in Tucson, Arizona oDe tlral had been appr:tiscd at $74,900, 139,900 125,441
or anolher thal ha.l bccn appraised al :1i135,000. Dur ing thcsc visits, the t 49 ,9AO 128,754
agcnts were gilen a 1o'page Iackd that inclrrded all thc infornation
Nob,Ihis 106e n odopbd fr.m o rldy
no|mallv used lo dctcrmine the vrluc of a resiclertial piopeftv (except
rhe olficial appraisal): the standard Multiple Listins Se,ricc (MLS) sum
mary shcet for lhe propel.ty, MLS l;stings for other pr.rpctlics cunettly plic.l by somconc clsc, it is I
bcin-s sold in thc ncighborhood, information libout ncalbv propefties Lrnau,arc oi bcine anchorcd b
that had l,een rcccnrly sold, aril so fonh. All ,rgcnls $'ho inspecte.l a
given properly rcceived the srmc packet o1 inl.nmation, u'iih one exccp FURTIIER E)'{MPLES OI
tion: |or s(,nc agcnts, the pricc ofthe bome sas listcd at 11 1.) I2 pcr
cent bel(,u, thc true appraiscd value; for olhers it was 4 pelcent bclow 'lhe Reader Sunev contains !
value; lor othc'rs it rvas ,l perccnl above the :rppraiscd valLre; ancl kx slill pioblem, Item #12a, )ou $,e
oihers it \!as 11 to 12 percent above vaiue. Northcraft and Neale u':rntcd paper rvould be if it uere fo
to lee !!hcthcr these dillcrcnces in apprrenl listing prices s1)uld lcad to peoPle gjve estimates lal.ger l
dil'ierenccs in later evalu.ltions of the pR)pertY. answer, given ar iniljal shee
Thc agents u,ere givcn twentv rninutcs to rvalk through and around 1.21 t n)t kilomctcrs inol
tLc pmperl!, aller u,hich time thev provided their best eslimate of (1) tancc bclwccn lhc carth and
thc appmised vahle oi the properl),, (2) an appropliale a.lvcrised sellins plc bccausc thct bcgin b) l
price, (3) a reasonablc price io p.ry ior thc house, and ('1) rhc lowest anch(,,) a,)d do rot adjLrsr
ollc'r rhcv rvorrlcl accepl lor rhe horrse il thcy \\,ere the seller. Table 13.1 d(rbli,,g cllect .,l larcr i,lds.
summaiizes thesc lolri. estimates li, agcnls who e!.iluatcd thc $135,000 plring thc thickncss ol thc pa
propety (the $74,900 property Produced similar reslrlts). As vou can lavcrs (2'oo). rhis nunlber u,
sce, the agents consislently sau' lhc 1isti11g price as too high (regar.lless 1.27 x 102'kitomerers.
of what the Iisling p ce ivas), and all four eltimatcs showed sisDillcanr Another example of ancho
evidence ol ancho ng. IDlerestingly, however, ulrcn asked what their er Suney. This question asl
top three colsidcrations $er-e io makhg these judgmcnts, onll' 1 agenl have to be h older lo hold al
in 10 meDli()nc.l1hc listiDg price. plc formulate thejl ansuer
These reslLlls are imporlant lor several rcasous. Fi$t, they denlrn \\,or]d's populatioD. Tlis ini
srrate lhe powcr of aDchoring in a real u,orld sctling. Bv changiDg only Then, rvben people scale dor
one piece of informatjoD (listing piice) nr a l0 paec packei ol materials, container rn bLrccl, thev do nr
Northcraft and Neale wcrc able to shilt rtal cstate appraisals bv mole The c()rrecL anss,er, .rs cstirnr
than $10,000. Second, thc rcsults shou, that cxperls are not immune to 870 leet. Prul)s an iled at thi
the ellccls of anchoirg. Most of rhe aseDts had sold real estate lor scv- 5 billion people and an avera
eral years, yet this e\pertisc did not pre!,en1 1hcirjudgrnents Irom bcing a cubic lool holds ab(,ut 7.i
aDchorcd. F-inally, ver y- lc'rv agents i.lentificd the ljstnls p,icc as an (xrl to 670 nriltn)n cubic lec
important coDsideration in their delibctations. Ahhough somc agents cach sidc (870j = 670 miuion
may have been rel(ctant to admit rclying on pricirlg ;rfotmation sup Still anothcr illuslralion o
 qr) pur ,ilsro.\J ;uuotlrut Jo t]l)'l.rrsnllL r:tlloulr lllrs -dns uoLjrur.rolur 8ur.ud u.)
^q Palrr)dai (r()r[rtr' 019 = f0/8) rp,s slueiE .r()s qijnoqlN srtoLl
'ttrr].
uo 1.{ 028 ,qr1r ot tur|r^nrbr sI s'Llf t..t tr'qnr uolllltu 0a9 ol ltro uE sE e.rrd;Lrlsrl rql p3u
" Surrq tuoq Eu.trl;pnl iriqr r
snror Pootq lo lurtolul? Pror rqr 'suollt;l s I ]noqc splotl looj rrqtl:)
.snlrris uosr..i rad poottt Jo uolrr; t Jo a:rjr.^E uu puD .ldoicl u(,rllrq S'r .'q rlDts) lea.L ftos PEq s
^ar
lo uolDlndod pt-ror1 u illlulnss'r lq r.rn:irl srtll 11? p.rnlD solntd l..l 018 ot runullur tou alr su.dr tE
.rrur tr sr '(1{t6t) s.rtnd urnv uqot {q P.rELurlsa sr'r.^\suE lrJ.r.ror aLlJ e.rotu lq qsrerdde JlErse lc
()Lttrur aql ulo{ lE^\D rsntPt rou op {rqr 'poolq lo.r:rulrruo:) islEr.rrlEru
Jo t3)itr.d r8ed-0t
^purDLUns p
p.dDqs.qnr lluo .'ufiuErlr ,{tI SLrrllrs pl.r
Io Jzts 3qr (r1 rn-EUI srl[ ua.,p rllr]s rldord oeqa'uaqJ
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.ql t.r azrs .$ aurrllllr ol Sur,irr ls.rl rr,^\suE .n.qr altlntrl.roJ rld
,).d rsol l pt.ro^\ Ill ur Po(,tq u.uuq.qr^qII'r PJotl or r.P(, u'.q (l1r^utl lt.;t I r{uo 'srualtlSpnl asoq
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perd altr ]o aT# ru.rr ur Punot aq ucr ;uuoqru! Jo rldu'xa -raqlo v l rrrlruSrs Pr^\oqs s.)uLUrlsr,
srJlJruot')t !_0t ). zz I ss.tp,Eb-l).r) qsq .,ot sE .l)ud
ro's-rarau rirur 6z0r t LZ t c.l or rno sl.roi\jrqlLrnl' srqr'(1)0rz) sii{'rl m?. no,{ sy (srtnser.'nt,u,s
to.rr.tnrlu Ilror ,\r rq (r.r.Lu,Lt,u1 I 0) irdEd .rlr Jo ss.uri:lq] a$ 8ul{ld 000's L$ .LIr PIEntt^: olta s
Irtntu Purnrl rcl urtr .,.asuu r.r,rrotr rql lPlo | lo F:Jl. :lurlqrrcP r rtqrJ r.[Js .np ir:^\,{a
ror oP PUE (ro(puP
.ql ,roJ^q.{tnrrrrrltns P-La.udn JlErlrls.r.,rl)r]r rsl'lPt'al1)l rsrr\ot .qr (r) pue iosnort srt
1.rr^ e) splot .{et }srg .rI Surur8rru, ,{.1 rli;eq ,{.tp :rsnEr.q .td Sunlas p.sqr.^pp 4Eudorddc
^\ot
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-srP JI srLurl 000'000'000'000 008 uttll .rou sralauollrl !.0I x zz I Punor PUP LtSnoiqr rllD,\\ ol
Ltqilrr)r sr ')prqt.rrlotLIIITItu I0 ridr?cl Jo laaqs lurrtut uE trr^r8'raasuE ,{ua
tr.rro..qt lei s.rrtaul ro sPrPi,\\3t r ueqr reS.IEI sJluulllsi.r^r; al.toad ol PEel Plnoa s.trLrd Suqsn lu
op,{ta-tu-r itro s.urr 00r JI.:^r, u() u, paptoJ e.Ii^\ rI lr .q ftno,\\.I3dud PaluE.\\ rlEeN PUE 1l'rlquoN
t(,3rard a I.qt ^\oq rtturls. or P:)lsE rr3,\\ nor('uzl# uall'Lllelqoid ['ls.rq PUE lrnF^ P.sr!]dde 3
auo uI tuuoqrrE Jo srtdu,pxa.LirLro llrr^rs sulEruo-r {.unS raplra}I.q.L luJrrrd t sr.s tr srJql
^1.rt3cl
-Lad ZI C)1 I I 1u pat.'rt str\ .nr
cNruoHlNv Jo sa'IdwYxg xaHrxnr d..x uo qtl,r\ 'u.rlulujoJur
t? PalrJdsu oq^\ slu.8u IN r
'.rr.rrt Surlsrr aql,{q Pr.roqtrur;uraq Io :rlr^\cun sarua&)rd ,{q.rEar }noqr uor
r.r \ stus:e.q] +o irrDLU lDrJr s! lr'asta.u.,3tuos lq PJIId iltu.ran- sirurdord roqto rol
^ldrurs ^l.r)I -Luns (s-rl\) r.r,ues Juqs'.].1
l/s6Ll a o.N r.,.6ro\,! prD rlD,trq!oN r]ooar5 & rpar. uo]l PrrdDPD s aqq sltt i.loN r.te.ya) ,{l r.doid |ruuepiser x
uoqr'rotor Jrll IIE papnFur
8t8'ezt att tat I86'0t t vgt'lzl oa6'6tl III 'slh-r^ rsrql jiuun( 000'g
v88'tzl t99'VZl 009'82 t tto'gzl 006'6e t '006'rZ$ rrr prsruddD u.eq p
v9z'azl 60z 2zl gtl'tzr ztt'gzt 006'62 t -snoq oat Jo JUo .nlot (r1 ilrrn
9Cr'r tr tqv' I I g?t'tl I taailt 006'611 suazop'iPnl:^ srqt uT uaoqs.
/.)'rd esDq,nd ',arud oulllas /.nlDA ljo33rC sr is.rr.rd JrEtse
s 13+lo s 5 $ s 'a)rd 6u4s'l
rs.ao'l 3tqouosoax PePuouuo,au Pasro.tddv ?t srurlr[,A\ 'arrques.rD) lsrl
srNlcY lrvrsl tvld la Nl^lc srlYllllrsr Nvlw uEql sllp-'3r rrqsrcq ol spEil
slllrd rlvtsl 'lvlx No cN loHlNV lo slfllll lH1 -irl.-luar(.1 lsour (r1 1s3qs.rcq
t et t]8Yr uor or sotrnl HL'rllot tlrll ..u
i50 UELR'!1 .rs nND BrAsr:s

nernan (1974), inlolves the rnLrltiplicatioD problerr Sivcrr in llenr #22 ol thcrc is no queslioD lhat nra
thc Rea.ler SLtrrcv. when Tvcrsk\ aDd K.lhneman ]rut this qliesli(trt to 11
anchol value {such as l8l) rl
group ol studcnts, they ()btained a .r.dian esiimal. o12250. Tn c(,roas1, uluc do$,nnird as thel L}i,,k
whcn ihey askcd a sec< d grotrp ol sllLdcnts to estinratc 1 /. 2 /. 3 t 4 tcnl \\'ith rhe leseaich bt N'Ia
x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8, the nrc.Liarl e\lirutc \\,as olllv 512. App.nerlll, stll 12. Pcoplc tcnd to Lrndereslinl
.lcnls \\,ho \!crc given dcscen.lins scqtrcnce urerc ancllor.ed to thc in this casc, the prlrbabiljtv oI
^
prrxLLrct o1 8, 7, 6, and 5, rnd sludcrrls ri'ho uere g,ivcn an .Ncen.Ling
scquerce s,crc aDchored 1(r the snrallcr p]o(lucl ol 1, 2, 3, and 4. ln The eftecis of ancho,ins nr(
truth, howcvcr, botl: groups oi slu.lcnls uJele strooglv anchored do\\'n'
\!ard. Thc coffecl a,rswcr is ,10,320. H.w large $'oul.l . group hr'
Irinallv, ltem # I 3 ol rhc Reade, SLLr'l'ev posed thc follou ins problen: xi leist oDe ne.rb.r has a pr

Ii.lLr.ling F.b.uarl 29, rIere a.e -166 lossible birthllars in a vcar Relore y(nr c(Dtiruc rcadin
Conseql,cnrl\, a g.o!p wo,tld Deed lo c(nLain 367 mcrrbcls iD ordo r(, 'Ihe wrr- nr soh,c rhis probl
be absoh,rely slrrc thal ar leasl 1\() pcople sharcd tlt same bnll aY. solved The probabilit! thal a
How ,iiany peoplc I c necessan in o,der lo Lr. 50 ],c..enl cc.lnin? ol Jlrl-v- is 365/166. Likc\lisc, I
anotlrcr, thc prcbrbilily that .
Most peoplc givc nr answcr sonrewhclc lrouDd I83 (half lhe .laYs in
<,1 Julv is (36s/366)(365/366), r
a ycar). The corrccl ans\!c'r'is tha{ onl\'23 people arc nccded. ThaL is,
itv ol rny N pcople,iol being
a v random grrrLLping ol 2:l pcople h.is b..1tcl. than ercrr odds of crntairr rurrrs olrr, rhis probabilil\ is jl
ing al leasl tu() pcople lvi1l1 thc same bir th.lav.
25:1. Tlrus, in i group of254 p
To see whv this aDsue. is couect, consi.Lcr fir'sl lhc probabilil! llral
at lcasl onc pcrson fi/l be br
anv r,o randonrly seleclcd pcople lvill ,er1 share rhc samc birthdar'(lor bit'Lhday ploblem, many peot
crample, il PcNon I happcns lo be born on March 11, cLnlsidcr thc
nccd tc, hale roushl) l8l me
probability that Persrrr 2 !\'as rol b(,n on Marcll 1l). This probabilil) is
thcil. estimale a!\,av lrom Lhis
365/366, (,r 99.71 pe, ccnr, becirusc 36s of the 366 possi[,le bir thdrvs for
Atler djs.ussiDg these pr.rl
Persor 2 do nol lall on rhe bir lh.lay of Pers(n I (for sinlplicilv, \\'c are
lo\lnlg obsen.rtn,n: "The rn.,r
assum;rrg hcre thal birlhd.rYs are .!,cnlY dislriblrtc.t oler *Lch .lav of the
to occur, $,herer! ils mxch l
Thc paradoxi.rl conchrsn,n is
N()\! consider lhe chinces thet llrtcc people s'ill not sh$e a birthda\'
evenis nol lo occirr." OnlY 23
This ligure is e.tual to the p()babilitv th:il lu'o pcople !\'ill not shale a
birthday (365/366, is gn,eD abolc) nlulliplicd bt the Probabililv thll thc
rhrl ls1) g.(trrp mcrnbcrs \\,il
th.m l0 tinrcs xs manr' pcopl,
lhir.L persor will not shar! x birthdav uith cilher Pe^()n I or Pers(trr 2
letlsl rnc pcrson has a pnrtic
(364/366). In (nl)cr \!ords, rlrc probabilil! that thiee pcople will .ot
sh cabi h.la] is (365/366)(36'1/366), oI 99.18per.ent. b.r\ ru rtiL LtL6 c(,inckLcnccs
renrarkable c(,incidcnccs in d(
tjslng the sarnc loslc, the probabjlilv thai aIlI |our pcopte \\'ill rx)t
sharc a birlh.lay is (365/366)(36'l/366)(363/366), or 98.37 pcrcenl. Arr.l
tlrc plobabilitt lhat 23 pe(,PIc \\'il] Dol sllxrc a birrhcla,"- is: CONCLUSION

365x364!363x x344 The cllccls ol anchoring are l

a .lozl'D sludics point in the s
e66)" 1r orn anchi,r' r'alLrcs, regaldle
chances <,l ruclcal rar, the,
Consequenth, if there is a -:19 prob.rbililv thal aDr- 23 pcople will n.)l
share a bir tLdav, lhere ar c bctter lhan clcn odcls rhat thc-r' u'i/l sharc a It is diffrcuh to protecl
birlhday. bccause incentives lor accur:
Although this problc,n is diflicult li,r reasons xp:ut fionr :mclrorins, anchor \,a1ues themselves oltr
 -ord p.n?,{or d.ls lsq .qf p.-r'tr)L'L'n o; r:qo si,\lrslrlr'tr s."tt^.'oqrulr
'8ur.(nplrr Luag rod! sxosx
Jrn .snptr.q r(DrEd PUE'rj.ro,\\ rul,Plas nrunr.Ir .Iol sr^'rl'..l'L es'1Errq
':uuorpuE lo st-r. a .qt rsrII'r8D r.Jlo.'d or rtnrlJllP sl.lllor ri.rl u
^turd r.r1rrls 1li,11 rErp sppo
'r ,\rrD turLt
traqlo Jo.rrqunn {,r. rc 'asnoq Ir Jo . tLr\ r,n ':r:m:ue1:nu 3o s:rrtierp
ro, IIr,s at.lo.d tZ i
aql sujr.uor rurLuSfnl .ql tr.ttrrtt^\ y) ss.r]],,'r3..! 'sanlD^.Ioqru'r tuo,l
itlu:r.gnsur lsnlpE itdoad :Llor]r:.IIp rurEs rtlr ur rulo.:l selpnls urzoP l] lurrrrd 6i ro
unqt o.row lsnqoi {t.ru.r)xa puE a^IsE,uJd r.r. SuuotLrLI Jo sDiJlr JttJ
NOISN I]NO:) :sr ,irpqr-rr.L r.
puv ruJ:)-,a.I rt s6 .ro (99/t
l,r?r.P L" sarrsPlruror ilqrrl.mu.-'
tou IIh\ et.kr.d rnoJ,(uD tsq
Iara^.s sJUrlrrp\. tt .L.rdrrqJ rou rrt s.rti.PIruIol .tDlttsr.tod tttl lu8rrd 81 6
s.rru.p,rl,,ol ,{Dpqrilq ./r/,,rr-,7d 1r slrq uos.Ird JL'o rs..l tou IF\\ )tdo..l .r.rrF rEql i
t1? tEqt..ms lu.r..rrcl 0E..i ot pap.Ju i.rE Jldoa.l lulrltt sD srullr 0l o'r'tl
z uosr.d ro I u(rs:rrJ .r llrJ r
.rolu rnq 'inpql rrq p.4tndsun w :r,IE(t! IIrr\ sraqrlrul dno.rs o$t lPqi Jql rEtlt Itrtrqr.l(rd JI pi
rr J.rDqs 1ou ^q
r,rns tur..rrcl 0S aq ol P3Fau r,rt rlcl).d tZ ItuO,,.In.ro ol tou stuaaa [r^\ atdord o,r]
'itprlt.rlq r..rtrls rolr Ls rld
IIr)rton ()t rTa)rtun.!Ir^ iq Plno^\ lr ltttt sr rolsnpuor lrr.r\()Ptlrd :q.L
r^\.uo llrtnr!,rEd tEqt ll.)t't ssat qrnul s,lr scr.r.'l'\\'rn:rro (r1
'r
sr lu.^. r(t:Iqun .rtuos turll s| aql to r.'rp qrua.r:^o p.lnqrns
Iuioul JLJI,, :uorrt^ ras.to :rrr\\ol
^l)lrt a.nr.r.r ',{lrrudrurs rol) I rrosr
Iq iqr apl,Lu (l.t tl'8S6t) sotned 'suatqo.Itt escqr Sutsstt:rstp::tjy -,(,I sriuprl.rrq atqrssod 99r .rJ
tFrnrq il.rr:rl) sttlt LnoiJ rl'rluns:."eql
^'rM. .^ttL ()1 s,.(r,trq.qord srq,t, (l r Ltrrxw
lsnlr* ot lLrlrgJrp lt puU {irtt pup'sraqr rlrl t81 iJl]En()r Pr.u
ptno.r dnori aqr rEql trrdsn.- i[tL]Lui:ldoid IuELtr'ru.t.lo.rd {tpqlllq rtll -'aPsro. 'II rlr.lt?t\t u(, t
,roJ) iDpLI rrq iurEs eqr ..naF-
srtot]\erd aql ur sv ritnl tr) qrt eqr uo uroq Jq ,7,tr uostred .oo ls'r{ rt
Irrlt sppo rrr^r uEqt .roll..l a.rt :r.ql .ldoid t(Z to LI o. r uI'snqJ. iSZ rEtll ilLtr.t..lo.rl1 tsrg r.pr
ot sr N u lu.tr.r.d ueqr ssJI lsnl sr ,{rrtr.LEqo.rtt sltp 'lno su.rnl
l.{ 0S
ir
lunb, rrrDluor lo s||o ui,\i rruq].1.
t L sV .tdo.tt N IuIr to 1r l
-(99r/S9t) sr itnr to Lt]r :q1 uo u.Ioq Slrrq rr), ' )l]qJ p.f.rru ii'r rldo.d t
t,qcqord aqr 'lerrur8 ('r puy .(99f/S9) .Io '(99t/E9)(99t/S9t) sI Llnr Jo uI s.{W.Ltr.ltrxt) rBI pu,lo.,E
qli rql uo ujoq rq t(r ltr,r.t.loott oxu rrxll irrtr.tDqord rq1 '.rrqloul?
^uE .
-uo lo ,, . tJ,J,t ,,, ,,' \Eprt i.q ,".\.iu ,.,$>1, I oor !o) !. \1,,i atrr.tratr ru...rrd 0!.q
rltt rlltuo url).I ..1 rd, Itt,\\ uoslrd rLIo iut rellt {}IIIqDqoid ,\I I,.^t(x- 'I.p,tt,(l .ru!s aql p.-!s
sp.\\ JUo ls.l .Ltr .(1I\.qr (r1
.relllr]rs s' u.t.to.'.t slqr r^los ol r.'r,\\.rlll or rr|n) ur s.,.qLu.ur l9t url
i.^\slrp .ql tE ssrn:l rr .)tr ';llrpu anulruor llo.i . ()tarl .n:J,t e u, srqrqtrq .tqrss
iitrlf Io qrf.qr 'Ils ^1rl)Ltr,q lrlrrr,-'r./! slq.,icl,!.,,, ruo rsu.llr :uritqo,'d Burx\olt.,t .rtt p.so
rrltt .rns tlr.trrad 0S o.t ol ,.pkr uL .q or .r.q dnqrn- r pt,x,^\ r;.,clr\oH
u.\1op pi.rorJruE lliiuo.'ls i.ri
:L()rr.-inb prtEIr,r D ur turlr.Idr ostl] arlr Suuorl.ur? li, srr.Jta 3qI
'.t.tord ul t Por rt 'z 'T to t.rlPor
irn'Pl'atrs'r (r'r ui,\6 i.re^\ o'l
tZ Slourr s,{Dprllrrq ur (Flulu auo ls1r:l tr? Jo rd .ql r.sEr snll uI
^lrllqrrqo ol rl{l ol P.()'t.u'r
tu:^r .^urunlstp t Jo ilrtr.lpqo.r.t eql 4Eulrsr.rrfurl Puel aldo.d Zl -n]s nttu..Irdd\i Z I ! ,{llro sr
,arL{EqJ rr prssnrsrp (rZ6l) I.[,H ro{1 EI'rW r(q q.).nr.,s.r altr q}I^\ luil
',.',,,'., u,),r' d.rr |,J,tq., .l -.t. r,','tu I,.q, \ i,, .r l. \, \,^, J,,tu, f xI xzx I J]Dlutlss or s
'lslrrru')-ruI 0Ezz lo rtr?u'lsr
,.rqJur lr:rqr lsnlpE or PIrq r! fl'rr -rerrl prlu (t8I sc tpns) .nlu^ .toqru'l
E ot uorls.nb srqr tn.l ur(.!r
q;iq E 8ulldoplr ,(q trurr nuptu lr::(tr lrorrsa b ou sr r.IJql
t:-.rrt aldoad
Jo ZZ# ua)t LLr.^rn- tllrlqord
ISI rNs'usn'oY cNV DNrroH:)\v
I52 HELJRrsrr.s ANn
CHAPTER 14
tectioD, th.'n, is to be a\!arc of any lutrgcslcd values that sccm unustralh
high rr 1o$,. ]'hese a,c thc ancho, lallrcs most likel] 1() prodtrce biascs
nr ju.lsnrcnt.
In .1tl ideal uorld, dccistun makc,s mishl .lisc.runl or ignore thcsc
v:rlues, but ir1 praclicc it is diflicult to do so (Quattr-onc et a1., 198:l). THE PERCE
CoDse.tucntty, the mosr cffccti\,e approach mav be t() gcncrate.]ll:ilteF
.ale anchor vrlue thrt is equallr.' extlcmc in the opPositc dire.tior. For
exarnplc, before estimating the valuc of a house thai sccms grossl! o!cr'
OF RANDI
priccd, a decisi(,n maker Dright inraeine wLal thc' r'alLre rtoulct secm like
il thc sellfts pricc had been su, prisinglv lou'. S(ch a techniclu. is simi-
lar to the devclopment (r1 Drultiplc fiames adlocatcd iI1 Chrurler 6. In his book on p,r,b:rbili[ t
Onc lirrther point beall\ repcating. Becarrsc crtreme ancho| r'alues Weavcr (1982) telis the ston
p,oduce the lagcsl anchorins cllccts, and becausc the effects {,1anchor' his next door cishbor, Georl
ing often go unnoticed, i1 is important io realizc rhrt a discussion of traveled bv uai lronr St. Lo
bcst- or u,(,sl casc scerurios can lead to unintcnded rnchrn-iDg cflects. Bryson asked a conduck, ul
FoI inslancc, after considcring the prollt.lbilitv of a busincss venture a 1e(, cl.l}s in Louislillc, Kent
undel ideal conditioDs, it is dif6cull to.ln-ivc at a realislic proiectior. conductor replied alfi ,rnative
Similarly, altcl. estim.ttilg thc largesl slockpilc of weapl,rs an adversax lraiD station, Brvson in.tuirr
mighl ha!c, il is haxl lo rcndcl an accurxlc militan assessmcnt Agair, .lirccted to the Brou,n Hole
it may lre s,ol1h consider ing multide .lr]chois belue atlcmpting lL) Room 307. lhen, on a \!him,
make a lir r:11 cstimate. waitins ft,r hnn. Thc clc,k czl
Gcoe D. BrysoD, Room 307
thc roorn had been anothcr c
Whal arc the chances of a
many pcople have is to sal tI
Aftcr all, its Dot every dav
rcom al a partjcular llotul in
mon as Gc.rrge D. Bryson."
tsut thinkinB about the coi
tion is not whcthe. lhis padi.
lion is whether ir is likel), rl
.so,?., hotel in sor?p citlr al ror
As with the bnthd.l! pK,blem
an unspecifrcd malcL is lnucl

hrcleed, coincidcnccs base

lhau nany peopic suspcct (se
plcs:
On October 5, 1990, the Ii
CoD(n-alion, a leading conrpr
cltip nraker for infiingin.e on
livan, I990, October s). Intel
planning to release a chip