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Assessing the vulnerability of the Niger delta to

Sea Level Rise

Thesis April 2013

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2062.9927

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Zahrah Naankwat Musa

IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
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Assessing the Vulnerability of the Niger Delta to Sea Level
Rise

Master of Science Thesis

by
ZAHRAH N. MUSA

Supervisors
Professor Arthur Mynett

Mentors
Dr Ioanna Popescu

Examination committee
Professor A. Mynett
Dr S. Maskey
Dr I. Popescu
This research is done for the partial fulfilment of requirements for the Master of Science degree at the
UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands

Delft
April 2013

[Month year]
[Optional]

2013by ZAHRAH N. MUSA . All rights reserved. No part of this publication or the information
contained herein may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any
means, electronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of
the author. Although the author and UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education have made every effort to
ensure that the information in this thesis was correct at press time, the author and UNESCO-IHE do not
assume and hereby disclaim any liability to any party for any loss, damage, or disruption caused by errors
or omissions, whether such errors or omissions result from negligence, accident, or any other cause.
Abstract
Various climate change indicators including atmospheric temperature rise known as global
warming, increase/decrease in precipitation, increase in frequency of floods, and rise in sea
levels, have led to questions about the safety of coastal areas. Already, Nigerian coastal areas
recorded a 0.426m rise in sea levels between 1960-1970 according to analysis by Udofa and
Fajemirokun, (1978) in ( Ogba et al, 2007), and the Nigerian coast has been undergoing
erosion ranging from 14-25m/yr as shown by the Nigerian institute of Oceanographic and
Marine Research (NIOMR). The Niger delta region is a low lying coastal area consisting of
several tributaries of the Niger River and ending at the edge of the Atlantic Ocean; the United
Nations Framework on Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reports indicate that the
Niger-delta region could be inundated with water due to the effects of climate change.
The study which aimed to assess the vulnerability of areas within the Niger Delta to effects of
sea level rise, used GIS, modelling and analytical techniques to: develop SLR inundation
vulnerability surfaces for the Niger Delta, model river flooding in the Niger Delta, model Sea
level rise scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050, and to undertake a coastline vulnerability to
SLR index for the Niger delta. The geospatial techniques used physical properties of slope,
topography, distance from coast and tidal water levels to study the coastline and the inland
areas for vulnerability to flooding, inundation and erosion. Modelling considered the effect of
a rise in sea levels on areas affected by flooding from the river Niger via Nun and Forcados
Rivers in order to check for increase in flooding extent and water depth. The analytical
techniques developed a coastal vulnerability to sea level rise index for the Niger delta based
on 19 indicators to determine the level of vulnerability of the coastline to SLR. Inundation
modelling results showed that 2.3 to 3.2% of the Niger delta could be inundated due to SLR
by the year 2050, while 3.4 to 7.5% of the Niger delta could be inundated due to SLR and
land subsidence by the year 2050. River flood modelling results showed that SLR will not
exacerbate the extent of flooding caused by high discharges from the Niger river via Nun and
Forcados rivers, but will increase the water depth in areas downstream of the Forcados river;
effects of SLR on water depths downstream of the Forcados river will be doubled by land
subsidence. Results of the coastal vulnerability to SLR index showed that about 40% of the
Niger delta coastline is highly vulnerable to the effects of SLR and will require mitigation
measures to be taken. These areas with high vulnerability are characterised by very low to
low topography, very low to low slopes, very high shoreline erosion rates, presence of coastal
infrastructure, high population density and unconfined aquifers. Finally, using population
projection and calculated inundation extents the study shows that, 460,000 to 2.4 million
people in the Niger delta could be affected by SLR by 2050.
Conclusions and Recommendation

The Specific objectives of the study were: to use medium resolution satellite imagery to
develop SLR inundation vulnerability surfaces for the Niger Delta, to model river flooding in
the Niger Delta, to model Sea level rise scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050, to undertake a
coastline vulnerability to SLR index for the Niger delta, and to assess the vulnerability of
areas within the Niger Delta to effects of sea level rise.
To achieve these objectives, geospatial, modelling and analytical techniques were used. The
geospatial techniques used physical properties of slope, topography, distance from coast and
tidal water levels to study the coastline and the inland areas for vulnerability to flooding,
inundation and erosion. Modelling considered the effect of a rise in sea levels on areas
affected by flooding from the river Niger via Nun and Forcados Rivers in order to check for
increase in flooding extent and water depth. The analytical techniques developed a coastal
vulnerability to sea level rise index for the Niger delta to determine the level of vulnerability
of the coastline to SLR.
The main results of this study are summarized below:
The Niger delta is very vulnerable to erosion caused by higher sea levels because its
geomorphology consists of barrier islands, creeks and estuaries; landforms that are very
susceptible to erosion.
The Niger delta coastline is less vulnerable compared with some inland areas that are
characterised by very low slopes (of less than 2%) and very low elevations making them
very susceptible to inundation by higher sea levels as was shown by the inundation maps.
2.3 to 3.2% of the Niger delta could be inundated due to SLR by the year 2050.
3.4 to 7.5% of the Niger delta could be inundated due to SLR and land subsidence by the
year 2050.
SLR will not exacerbate the extent of flooding caused by high discharges from the Niger
river via Nun and Forcados rivers, but will increase the water depth in areas downstream
of the Forcados river.
Effects of SLR on water depths downstream of the Forcados river will be doubled by land
subsidence
Based on physical properties, 65% of the Niger delta coastline have moderate to very
high vulnerability to sea level rise and will require mitigation measures to be applied.
An analysis of the data used for the exposure index shows that the areas with high to very
high vulnerabilities were characterised by very low to low topography, very low to low
 slopes, very high shoreline erosion rates and unconfined aquifers. On the other hand,
areas with very low to low vulnerabilities were characterised by high to very high
topography, and high to very high slopes.
Based on physical, social and human influence variables, 63% of the Niger delta coastline
have moderate to very high vulnerability to sea level rise and will require mitigation
measures to be applied.
An analysis of the data used for the CVI(slr) index shows that areas with high to very
high vulnerability were characterized by: very low to low slopes, very low to low
topography, high to very high mean wave heights, unconfined aquifers, presence of
coastal infrastructure and high population density. On the other hand areas with very low
to low vulnerability were characterized by: high to very high topography, high to very
high slopes, low population density, and no coastal infrastructure.

CONCLUSION
Through the applied methods, SRTM DEM with 90m resolution, Nigeriasat1 imagery with
32m resolution and LandSat ETM with 30m resolution were used to study the Niger delta and
to develop an SLR inundation surface. River flooding was modelled using Sobek Rural 1D/
2D overland flow model and SLR scenarios were created and modelled in GIS and Sobek.
Finally a vulnerability to sea level rise index was calculated for the Niger delta based on 19
vulnerability indicators.

From the results of the study, about 40% of the Niger delta coastline is highly vulnerable to
the effects of SLR and needs to have mitigation measures taken. These areas with high
vulnerability are characterised by very low to low topography, very low to low slopes, very
high shoreline erosion rates and unconfined aquifers.

The inland areas shown to have very high vulnerability due to slope and topography are also
the areas that were inundated in the inundation maps; this means that those areas have a very
high vulnerability to SLR.

Even though all deltas naturally subside, the effects of subsidence on inundation due to SLR
for the Niger delta have not been quantitatively measured either by GIS techniques or
modelling. Results of GIS and modelling methods applied in this study have shown that land
subsidence will exacerbate the inundation effect of SLR on inland areas and increase water
depths in rivers, they also showed that the higher the SLR value the larger the inundation
extent.

This study agrees with results by Ericson et al (2006), Popoola O. (2012) which showed that
land loss estimates by Awosika et al (1993) of over 15,000 km2 for an SLR value of 0.5 +
erosion (which have been used for many years to in addressing the potential losses for the
ND) were over estimated by the method used. Although population estimates differ, the
results of inundation by SLR reaching 3.2% by 2050 in this study agrees with the estimate by
Ericson et al (2006) of 3.26% land loss to effective SLR in the Niger delta by 2050. The
difference in population can be attributed to the fact that different sets of data were used;
 while this study used data from 2006 census, Ericson et al used estimates from the U.S
population Reference Bureau that was based on older population estimate values from 2002.

Based on population projection and assuming little or no migration, there will be 20million
people by 2030 and 32 million people by 2050 in the study area. From the results of
calculated inundation extents, 2.3 to 7.5% of the surface area will be inundated, assuming
equal distribution of population on the area, 460,000 to 2.4 million people will be affected by
SLR by the year 2050.

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