RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18 17 NOV 2017

Ahluwalia Contracts
BUY
INDUSTRY INFRASTRUCTURE Margin outperformance
CMP (as on 17 Nov 2017) Rs 336 AHLUs revenue net of GST (Rs 270mn impact) came Highlights of the quarter
in 15.7% lower than our estimates. EBIDTA margins
Target Price Rs 415 expanded 102bps to 14.9%, which led to EBIDTA/PAT
EBIDTA-led outperformance: AHLUs 2QFY18
performance had many positives, with (1) EBIDTA
Nifty 10,284 beat of 13/11.3% respectively. Based on the
margins recovering to 14.9% (multi-year highs), (2)
Sensex 33,343 companys 1HFY18 performance, AHLU has raised Strong order inflows of Rs 8.7bn, (3) Increase in EBIDTA
KEY STOCK DATA
EBIDTA margins guidance to 13-14% vs 12-13% margins guidance to 13-14%, and (4) AHLU upping
earlier. Management sounded confident on order inflow guidance to Rs 14-15bn. Revenue growth
Bloomberg AHLU IN
delivering 15%+ revenue growth in FY18E. for FY18E is maintained at 15%, with a positive bias.
No. of Shares (mn) 67
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 23/346 Order inflows guidance for FY18E has been upped to Balance sheet now net cash: AHLU has reduced debt
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 16 Rs 14-15bn vs Rs 11-12bn earlier, with orders worth by Rs 170mn QoQ to Rs 630mn. With cash of Rs 690mn
Rs 11.8bn already in kitty. The order backlog stands on book, BS is net cash now. With a focus now on an
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
at Rs 32.7bn, ex L1 of Rs 3.5bn. average order size of Rs 5bn+ (where competitive
52 Week high / low Rs 410/236 intensity is less), working capital investments may lead
3M 6M 12M AHLU is focusing on Rs 5bn plus order size and is to increase in debt, going forward.
Absolute (%) 20.7 (15.1) 29.2 gearing to bid for two upcoming NBCC orders with Rs Near-term outlook: Strong orders in buildings will be
Relative (%) 15.8 (23.8) 2.1 10bn+ size each. Balance sheet is robust with net D/E driven by, (1) Private commercial, (2) Government-led
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
at -0.01x. We maintain BUY with a SOTP of Rs 415/sh capex, and (3) Push for affordable housing. Private
(EPC segment at 18x Sep-19E EPS, Kota BOT 1x residential realty remains muted. We remain
Promoters 57.96
P/BV). constructive on AHLU, as growth recovery plays out.
FIs & Local MFs 15.04
FPIs 19.76 Financial Summary (Standalone)
Public & Others 7.24 Year Ending March (Rs mn) 2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY (%) 1QFY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Source : BSE Net Sales 3,345 2,903 15.2 5,042 (33.6) 14,265 16,619 19,029 21,598
EBITDA 498 403 23.7 536 (7.1) 1,730 2,236 2,560 2,884
Parikshit D Kandpal APAT 258 200 29.0 295 (12.7) 860 1,164 1,404 1,590
parikshitd.kandpal@hdfcsec.com Diluted EPS (Rs) 3.8 3.0 29.0 4.4 (12.7) 12.8 17.4 21.0 23.7
+91-22-6171-7317
P/E (x) 26.2 19.3 16.0 14.2
Kunal Bhandari EV / EBITDA (x) 12.8 9.8 8.2 7.1
kunal.bhandari@hdfcsec.com RoE (%) 18.5 20.6 20.2 18.8
+91-22-6639-3035 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
 AHLUWALIA CONTRACTS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Standalone Quarterly Financials

2QFY18 revenue was net of
Particulars (Rs mn) 2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY (%) 1QFY18 QoQ (%) 1HFY18 1HFY17 YoY (%)
GST and lower by Rs 270mn
Net Sales 3,345 2,903 15.2 5,042 (33.6) 8,387 5,966 40.6
Material Expenses (2,454) (2,030) 20.9 (2,748) (10.7) (5,202) (3,519) 47.8
EBIDTA margins expanded Employee Expenses (345) (431) (20.0) (319) 8.1 (664) (826) (19.7)
102bps YoY to 14.9%. Other Operating Expenses (48) (39) 22.5 (1,439) (96.6) (1,487) (784) 89.7
Demonetization impact EBITDA 498 403 23.7 536 (7.1) 1,035 836 23.7
witnessed in last two Interest Cost (46) (71) (34.7) (38) 20.9 (84) (135) (37.4)
quarters is largely behind. Depreciation (64) (59) 7.1 (63) 0.3 (127) (113) 11.8
AHLU has upgraded EBIDTA Other Income (Incl. EO Items) 10 35 (71.6) 15 (35.1) 25 51 (51.2)
margins guidance for FY18E PBT 398 307 29.7 450 (11.4) 848 639 32.7
Tax (141) (108) 30.8 (154) (8.9) (295) (221) 33.4
by 100bps to 13-14% range
RPAT 258 200 29.0 295 (12.7) 553 418 32.3
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Kota project Rs 60mn/yr
Kota lease rental Margin Analysis
provisioning (non-cash) will MARGIN ANALYSIS 2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY (bps) 1QFY18 QoQ (bps) 1HFY18 1HFY17 YoY (bps)
continue Material Expenses % Net Sales 73.4 69.9 344 54.5 1,885 62.0 59.0 303
Employee Expenses % Net Sales 10.3 14.8 (454) 6.3 398 7.9 13.9 (594)
Other Ope. Expenses % Net Sales 1.4 1.4 9 28.5 (2,709) 17.7 13.1 459
New order inflow during
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.9 13.9 102 10.6 426 12.3 14.0 (168)
2QFY18 stood at Rs 8.7bn
Tax Rate (%) 35.3 35.0 32 34.3 96 34.8 34.6 19
and order backlog is Rs
APAT Margin (%) 7.7 6.9 82 5.9 185 6.6 7.0 (41)
32.7bn ex. L1 of Rs 3.5bn Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

FY18E Order inflows are Change In Estimates

pegged at Rs 14-15bn FY18E New FY18E Old % Change FY19E New FY19E Old % Change
Revenues (Rs mn) 16,619 16,141 3.0 19,029 18,482 3.0
Based on strong EBIDTA EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,236 2,016 10.9 2,560 2,327 10.0
margins performance during PBT (Rs mn) 1,791 1645.437 8.8 2,160 2109.285 2.4
1HFY18 we have upgraded APAT (Rs mn) 1,164 1,102 5.6 1,404 1,413 (0.7)
FY18E EPS by 5.6% EPS (Rs) 17.4 16.5 5.6 21.0 21.1 (0.7)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
For FY19E we have upgraded
EBIDTA margins, but higher
interest cost would result in
muted EPS change

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 AHLUWALIA CONTRACTS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

We expect EBIDTA margins in EBIDTA Margins To Remain 13-14% Over FY18-20E Well Diversified Order Mix (%) 2QFY18
Residential
the 13-14% range over FY18- Revenues (Rs mn) EBIDTA Margins (%) - RHS Institutional (Pvt)
20E 27 23
25,000.0 16.0
14.0
20,000.0 12.0
10.0
15,000.0 8.0
6.0
Well-diversified order book 10,000.0 4.0
Residential
segmentation (Gov)
2.0 Infra
14
5,000.0 - 12
(2.0)
- (4.0) Hotels Commercial
-

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18E

FY19E

FY20E
Hospital 6
18

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Order book dominated by the
government
Client Mix (%):Government Dominated Large Part Of Order Book Is With Escalation (%) -
2QFY18
Fixed
project
Only 2% of the order backlog 2
is fixed price in nature
Private
37

Govt
63
Variable
project
98

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 AHLUWALIA CONTRACTS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

We expect muted growth in Key Assumptions And Estimates

the order backlog. Key Assumptions FY18E FY19E FY20E Comments
Managements cautious We expect muted order book CAGR, as AHLU is cautiously approaching
Closing order book 33,911 34,882 33,285
commentary on high new bids owing to high competitive intensity
Order book growth (%) (4.6) 2.9 (4.6)
competitive intensity in new
New order booking 15,000 20,000 20,000 In line with Rs 15-20bn/yr order intake guidance
bids is the key reason for
Book to bill ratio 2.0 1.8 1.5
slow order intake
Total Revenue 16,619 19,029 21,598 FY18-20E Revenue CAGR of 14%
Growth (%) 16.5 14.5 13.5
EBIDTA 2,236 2,560 2,884 FY18-20E EBIDTA CAGR of 13.6%
FY18-20E revenue CAGR 14%,
EBIDTA margin (%) 13.5 13.5 13.4 Margins to remain in 13-14% range
EBIDTA CAGR 13.6%
Depreciation 268 283 319
Financial Charges 220 180 189 To remain stable
Interest expense to remain
PBT 1,791 2,160 2,447 FY18-20E PBT CAGR of 16.9% on the back of stable interest costs
stable
PBT margin (%) 10.8 11.4 11.3
Tax 626.8 756.0 856.3
FY18-20E RPAT CAGR of
Tax rate (%) 35.0 35.0 35.0
16.9%
RPAT 1,164 1,404 1,590 FY18-20E APAT CAGR of 16.9%
Net margin (%) 7.0 7.4 7.4
Adjusted PAT 1,164 1,404 1,590
Gross Block Turnover 4.2 4.0 4.1
Debtor days 135 135 135
AHLU to generate strong FCF CFO - a 808 1,450 1,323 AHLU to generate strong FCF
CFI - b (450) (581) (676)
FCF - a+b 359 869 647
CFF - c (206) (77) (88)
Total change in cash - a+b+c 153 792 559
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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 AHLUWALIA CONTRACTS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Outlook and valuation

We value the standalone
TP of Rs 415/sh
Building business at Rs
402/share (18x one-year Valuation methodology
forward Sep-19E EPS) We have valued AHLUs EPC business at 18x one-year in the segment. AHLU, with its strong execution skills,
forward earlier. Our rationale behind this is (1) is likely to benefit from the pick-up in order activity.
Superior earnings quality vs peers, (2) Robust order We maintain BUY with an SOTP-based target price of
backlog of Rs 36.2bn (2.2x FY18E revenue), (2) Near Rs 415/share.
Kota BOT at Rs 13/share
debt-free status by FY19E, and (4) Limited BOT capex
(DCF valuation, implied We value the (1) Standalone EPC business at
(Kota BOT equity of Rs 900mn already invested).
0.96x P/BV of equity Rs 402/share (18x one-year forward Sep-19E EPS), (2)
invested) Investment in the building segment would remain Kota BOT at Rs 13/share (DCF valuation, implied 0.96x
robust on the back of NBCC, CPWD and private capex P/BV of equity invested).

SOTP Valuation
Value Value per share
Particulars Segments Rationale
(Rsmn) (Rs)
AHLU Standalone Building business 26,948 402 At 18x Sep-19E EPS
DCF Valuation, implied P/BV (x)
Kota BOT Project Lease rental 866 13
0.96x
Our SOTP target price is Total 27,814 415
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research
Rs 415/share

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 AHLUWALIA CONTRACTS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Income Statement (Standalone) Balance Sheet (Standalone)

Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Net Revenues 12,496 14,265 16,619 19,029 21,598 SOURCES OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 17.9 14.2 16.5 14.5 13.5 Share Capital 134 134 134 134 134
Material Expenses 6,069 7,262 8,334 9,637 10,960 Reserves 4,087 4,947 6,111 7,515 9,105
Employee Expenses 1,588 1,536 1,413 1,522 1,728 Total Shareholders' Funds 4,221 5,081 6,245 7,649 9,239
Other Operating Expenses 3,230 3,737 4,637 5,309 6,026 Minority Interest - - - - -
EBIDTA 1,608 1,730 2,236 2,560 2,884 Long Term Debt 1 - - - -
EBIDTA (%) 12.9 12.1 13.5 13.5 13.4 Short Term Debt 1,418 900 863 741 842
EBIDTA Growth (%) 40.0 7.6 29.2 14.5 12.7 Total Debt 1,419 900 863 741 842
Depreciation 201 241 268 283 319 Deferred Taxes (148) (134) (134) (134) (134)
EBIT 1,408 1,489 1,968 2,277 2,565 Long Term Provisions & Others - - - - -
Other Income (Incl. EO Items) 136 84 42 63 70 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 5,493 5,847 6,974 8,256 9,947
Interest 352 267 220 180 189 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
PBT 1,192 1,306 1,791 2,160 2,447 Net Block 1,965 1,925 2,108 2,424 2,805
Tax 347 446 627 756 856 CWIP 2 3 3 3 3
RPAT 844 860 1,164 1,404 1,590 Goodwill - - - - -
APAT 844 860 1,164 1,404 1,590 Investments, LT Loans & Advances 63 63 63 63 63
APAT Growth (%) 31.6 1.9 35.3 20.6 13.3 Total Non-current Assets 2,030 1,992 2,174 2,490 2,871
EPS 12.6 12.8 17.4 21.0 23.7 Inventories 2,047 2,008 2,504 2,867 3,254
EPS Growth (%) 31.6 1.9 35.3 20.6 13.3 Debtors 4,997 5,141 6,147 7,038 7,988
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Cash & Equivalents 882 1,226 1,378 2,170 2,730
ST Loans & Advances, Others 1,464 1,857 1,935 2,017 2,104
Total Current Assets 9,391 10,231 11,965 14,093 16,076
Creditors 2,946 3,522 4,171 4,611 5,240
Other Current Liabilities & Provns 2,983 2,853 2,993 3,716 3,760
Total Current Liabilities 5,928 6,375 7,164 8,328 9,000
Net Current Assets 3,462 3,855 4,800 5,766 7,076
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 5,493 5,847 6,974 8,256 9,947
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 AHLUWALIA CONTRACTS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

Cash Flow (Standalone) Key Ratios (Standalone)

Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
PBT 1,192 1,306 1,791 2,160 2,447 PROFITABILITY (%)
Non-operating & EO items (136) (84) (42) (63) (70) GPM 51.4 49.1 49.9 49.4 49.3
Interest expenses 352 267 220 180 189 EBITDA Margin 12.9 12.1 13.5 13.5 13.4
Depreciation 201 241 268 283 319 EBIT Margin 11.3 10.4 11.8 12.0 11.9
Working Capital Change (892) 528 (801) (355) (705) APAT Margin 6.8 6.0 7.0 7.4 7.4
Tax paid (343) (432) (627) (756) (856) RoE 22.2 18.5 20.6 20.2 18.8
Core RoCE 21.9 21.5 23.1 24.6 23.3
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 373 1,827 808 1,450 1,323
RoCE 19.9 17.7 18.7 18.4 17.2
Capex (219) (203) (450) (600) (700)
EFFICIENCY
Free cash flow (FCF) 154 1,624 358 850 623
Tax Rate (%) 29.2 34.1 35.0 35.0 35.0
Investments 267 (297) 0 19 24
Asset Turnover (x) 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) 48 (500) (450) (581) (676)
Inventory (days) 60 51 55 55 55
Share capital Issuance - - - - - Debtors (days) 146 132 135 135 135
Debt Issuance (311) (520) (37) (122) 101 Payables (days) 86 90 92 88 89
Interest expenses (352) (267) (220) (180) (189) Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 120 93 98 102 101
Dividend - - - - - Other Current Assets (days) 43 48 43 39 36
Others 360 (196) 51 225 - Other Current Liab (days) 87 73 66 71 64
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (303) (983) (206) (77) (88) Net Working Capital Cycle (Days) 75 67 75 69 73
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 117 343 153 792 559 Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3
Opening cash balance 765 882 1,226 1,378 2,170 Net D/E 0.13 (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2)
Closing Cash & Equivalents 882 1,226 1,378 2,170 2,730 Interest Coverage 4.0 5.6 9.0 12.6 13.6
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research PER SHARE DATA
EPS (Rs/sh) 12.6 12.8 17.4 21.0 23.7
CEPS (Rs/sh) 15.6 16.4 21.4 25.2 28.5
DPS (Rs/sh) - - - - -
BV (Rs/sh) 63 76 93 114 138
VALUATION
P/E 26.7 26.2 19.3 16.0 14.2
P/BV 5.3 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.4
EV/EBITDA 14.3 12.8 9.8 8.2 7.1
OCF/EV (%) 1.6 8.2 3.7 6.9 6.4
FCF/EV (%) 0.7 7.3 1.6 4.0 3.0
FCFE/Market Cap (%) (2.3) 3.7 0.5 2.4 2.4
Dividend Yield (%) - - - - -
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 AHLUWALIA CONTRACTS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Ahluwalia TP
Date CMP Reco Target
450 31-May-17 350 BUY 393
23-Aug-17 282 BUY 393
400 11-Oct-17 293 BUY 415
17-Nov-17 336 BUY 415
350

300

250
Rating Definitions
200 BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
Feb-17

Sep-17
Nov-16

Nov-17
Jun-17
May-17
Dec-16

Mar-17

Oct-17
Aug-17
Apr-17
Jan-17

Jul-17

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

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 AHLUWALIA CONTRACTS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

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 AHLUWALIA CONTRACTS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY18

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Institutional Equities
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Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com
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