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12/11/2017

CHAPTER 5 : SAMPLING AND


ESTIMATION THEORY

ASSOC. PROF. MUNZILAH MD.


ROHANI

A Sampling Distribution

The way our means would be distributed if we


collected a sample, recorded the mean and threw
it back, and collected another, recorded the mean
and threw it back, and did this again and again, ad
nauseam!

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A Sampling Distribution
We are moving from descriptive statistics to
inferential statistics.

Inferential statistics allow the researcher to


come to conclusions about a population on
the basis of descriptive statistics about a
sample.

A Sampling Distribution
For example:

Your sample says that a candidate gets support from 47%.

Inferential statistics allow you to say that the candidate gets


support from 47% of the population with a margin of error of
+/- 4%.

This means that the support in the population is likely


somewhere between 43% and 51%.

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A Sampling Distribution
Margin of error is taken directly from a sampling
distribution.

It looks like this:


95% of Possible Sample Means

47%
43% 51% Your Sample Mean

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Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Aims of Sampling
Probability Distributions
Sampling Distributions
The Central Limit Theorem
Types of Samples

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Aims of sampling
Reduces cost of research (e.g. political polls)
Generalize about a larger population (e.g.,
benefits of sampling city r/t neighborhood)
In some cases (e.g. industrial production)
analysis may be destructive, so sampling is
needed

Probability
Probability: what is the chance that a given
event will occur?
Probability is expressed in numbers between 0
and 1. Probability = 0 means the event never
happens; probability = 1 means it always
happens.
The total probability of all possible event
always sums to 1.

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Probability distributions: Permutations

What is the probability distribution of number


of girls in families with two children?
2 GG
1 BG
1 GB
0 BB

0.6
Probability Distribution of
Number of Girls
0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 1 2

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How about family of three?


Num. Girls child #1 child #2 child #3
0 B B B
1 B B G
1 B G B
1 G B B
2 B G G
2 G B G
2 G G B
3 G G G

Probability distribution of number of girls

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 1 2 3

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How about a family of 10?


0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

As family size increases, the binomial distribution


looks more and more normal.

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Number of Successes Number of Successes

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Normal distribution

Same shape, if you adjusted the scales

A C

Sampling Distribution of the Mean


When the population is normally distributed
Shape: Regardless of sample size, the distribution of
sample means will be normally distributed.
Center: The mean of the distribution of sample
means is the mean of the population. Sample size
does not affect the center of the distribution.
Spread: The standard deviation of the distribution
of sample means, or the standard error, is

s =s .
x n

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zqNGDVNKgA

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Example
A Wholesaler sells a large number of 2-litre and 5-litre tubs of ice-cream which are sold in
the ratio 3:2. A random sample of 2 tubs, 1 , 2 is taken from the shelves.

a) Find the mean and variance of ice-cream content in this populations of tubs
b) List all the possible samples.
c) Find the sampling distribution for the mean X

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhOYQFtdc6c&t=6s

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Example

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Example

What is the probability that a sample of 100 automobiles insurance claim files
will yield an average claim RM4527.77 or less if the average claim for the
population is RM4560 with standard deviation of RM600?

Example

The random variable, X represents the number of box in a container, has the following
probability distribution
X 4 5 6 7
P(x) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1

(a) Find the probability mean and variance


(b) Find the sample mean and variance for random samples of 36 boxes
(c) Calculate the probability if the average number of box in 36 container will be less
than 5.5

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Example
At a large university, the mean age of the students is 22.3 years and the standard
deviation is 4 years. A random sample of 64 students is drawn. What is the
probability that age of these students is greater than 23 years?

Difference of sample means


distribution : Probability and
Statistics

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Example
The mature citrus trees of type A have a mean height of 14.8 feet with a standard deviation of 1.2
feet. The mature citrus tree of type B have a mean height of 12.9 feet with a standard deviation of 1.5
feet. Two samples of size 12 and 15 are randomly selected from mature citrus tree of type A and B
respectively. Find the probability that:
(a) The mean of type A is more than 12 feet
(b) The mean of type B is between 12 to 14 feet
(c) The mean of type A is two feet more than the mean of type B

Example
The result of statistics test 1 for two groups of management students, section 1 and
section 2 are normally distributed with N(60,42) and N(60,22) respectively. Two
samples of size 9 and 12 are randomly selected from section 1 and section 2
respectively. Find the probability that the mean of section 2 is lower than the mean of
section 1?

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