Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Maiores detalhes podem ser obtidos na Nota Metodolgica Estatsticas do Setor Externo
- Adoo da 6 Edio do Manual de Balano de Pagamentos e Posio Internacional de
Investimento (BPM6). Notas metodolgicas complementares, sobre temas especficos,
sero publicadas nos prximos meses.
Novembro de 2014
1. Introduo
1
O BPM6 est disponvel, em ingls, no stio do FMI em
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bopman6.htm.
2
O SNA 2008 est disponvel, em diversos idiomas, no stio da Diviso de Estatsticas da
Organizao das Naes Unidas em http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/sna2008.asp.
2. Contextualizao
3
O BPM5 est disponvel, em diversos idiomas, no stio do FMI em
https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/bop/bopman5.htm.
4
O BDM4 est disponvel, em diversos idiomas, no stio da OCDE em
http://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/mne/fdibenchmarkdefinition.htm.
5
O manual est disponvel, em diversos idiomas, no stio da Diviso de Estatsticas da
Organizao das Naes Unidas em http://unstats.un.org/unsd/tradeserv/TFSITS/manual.htm.
6
O guia est disponvel, em ingls, no stio do FMI em
https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/dataguide.htm.
7
O guia est disponvel, em ingls, no stio do Task Force on Finance Statistics em
http://www.tffs.org/edsguide.htm.
(GFSM 2014) 8 e espera-se para 2015 a publicao de verso atualizada do
Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MSFM 2000)9.
8
O manual est disponvel, em ingls, no stio do FMI em
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/gfsm/.
9
O manual est disponvel, em diversos idiomas, no stio do FMI em
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/mfs/manual/.
10
Para definies e maiores informaes metodolgicas sobre ITRS, ver o captulo 4 do BPM6
Compilation Guide, de 2014, disponvel em ingls no stio do FMI em
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bop6comp.htm.
e racionalizar o conjunto de informaes requeridas e, ao mesmo tempo,
atender necessidades estatsticas impostas pela publicao do BPM6.
US$ milhes
Estoque em Transaes (conta Variaes de preo Estoque em
Demais variaes
2012 financeira do BP) e paridades 2013
Ativos
Investimento direto no exterior
Investimento em carteira
Derivativos
Outros investimentos
Ativos de reserva
tassivos
Investimento direto no pas
Investimento em carteira
Derivativos
Outros investimentos
11
Excees podem surgir em algumas transaes especificas. Por exemplo, bens sob
merchanting (bens comprados e revendidos fora do pas sem entrar ou sair fisicamente do
territrio nacional) podem, em certas circunstncias, resultar em registro negativo de
exportaes.
Quadro 2 Conveno de sinais BPM5 x BPM6
Por fim, a classificao dos estoques por taxas de juros fixas e flutuantes
outra informao suplementar, permitindo anlises de sensibilidade da posio
do pas a variaes nas taxas de juros internacionais (par. 5.109).
Anexo I Estrutura analtica resumida do BP, em conformidade com o
BPM6
Balano de Pagamentos
I. Transaes correntes
Bens e servios
Balana comercial (bens)
Exportaes
Importaes
Servios
Servios de manufatura
Servios de manuteno e reparo
Transportes
Viagens
Construo
Seguros
Servios financeiros
Servios de propriedade intelectual
Telecomunicao, computao e informaes
Aluguel de equipamento
Outros servios de negcio
Servios culturais, pessoais e recreativos
Servios governamentais
Renda primria
Remunerao de trabalhadores
Renda de investimento
Investimento direto
Lucros e dividendos
Juros
Investimento em carteira
Outros investimentos
Ativos de reserva
Renda secundria
II. Conta capital
III. Conta financeira
Investimento direto no exterior
Participao no capital e cotas em fundos
Dvida intercompanhia
Investimento direto no pas
Participao no capital e cotas em fundos
Dvida intercompanhia
Investimento em carteira - Ativos
Aes e cotas em fundos
Ttulos de renda fixa
Investimento em carteira - Passivos
Aes e cotas em fundos
Ttulos de renda fixa
Derivativos - Ativos
Derivativos - Passivos
Outros investimentos - Ativos
Moedas e depsitos
Emprstimos
Crditos comerciais e adiantamentos
Demais
Outros investimentos - Passivos
Moedas e depsitos
Emprstimos
Crditos comerciais e adiantamentos
Demais
Ativos de reserva
Erros e omisses
Estatsticas do Setor Externo Adoo da 6 Edio do Manual de
Balano de Pagamentos e Posio Internacional de Investimentos (BPM6)
Abril de 2015
1. Introduo
1
O BPM6 est disponvel, em ingls, no stio do FMI no endereo
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bopman6.htm.
2. Balana comercial
10.14 International merchandise trade statistics (IMTS) are usually the main
data source for general merchandise in the goods and services account. The
international standards for merchandise trade data are set out in United Nations
IMTS: Concepts and Definitions. These standards are closely linked to those in
this Manual. In practice, the data used as sources for general merchandise
include customs data, international transactions reporting systems, other
administrative data (including value-added tax systems), surveys of traders, or
combinations. Adjustments to source data may be needed to account for
coverage, timing, valuation, and classification that do not meet balance of
payments guidelines. (grifado).
2
O BPM5 est disponvel, em ingls, no stio do FMI no endereo
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=157.0.
3
United Nations, International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions, 1998,
disponvel no site da ONU no endereo
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/SeriesM/SeriesM_52rev2E.pdf.
pargrafo 10.13, define exportao e importao a partir da mudana de
propriedade econmica, entre residente e no residente:
3. Servios
4. Renda primria
Lucros: o lucro lquido total de uma empresa de investimento direto pode ser
particionado em lucros remetidos e lucros reinvestidos, e essas duas
categorias devem gerar registros no BP. A receita (despesa) de lucro recebida
(remetida) tem como contrapartida aumento (reduo) de ativos em moeda
estrangeira, detido por bancos que intermediam a operao cambial. O lucro
reinvestido, por sua vez, reflete a deciso da matriz de ampliar seus
investimentos no pas de residncia de sua subsidiria, no tendo, portanto,
impacto sobre o mercado de cmbio, e tendo por contrapartida a ampliao do
investimento direto, em participao no capital.
5. Renda secundria
Abril de 2015
1. Introduo
1
O BPM6 est disponvel, em ingls, no stio do FMI no endereo
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bopman6.htm.
Direct investment is a category of cross-border investment associated
with a resident in one economy having control or a significant degree of
influence on the management of an enterprise that is resident in another
economy. ()
2
O padro anterior, da 5 edio do Manual de Balano de Pagamentos (BPM5), considerava
10% ou mais do capital social, e no do poder de voto.
3
Para maiores detalhes sobre as relaes de investimento direto, consultar o BPM6
(http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bopman6.htm), pg. 101 a 106, e a 4 edio do
OECD Benchmark Definition of Direct Investment (BDM4), disponvel, em diversos idiomas,
no stio da OCDE em http://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/mne/fdibenchmarkdefinition.htm.
investimento reverso, quando a subsidiria (empresa investida) fornecia fundos
para sua matriz, possua tratamento especfico. Por exemplo, se uma
subsidiria ou controlada no residente fornecesse crdito para sua matriz
residente no Brasil, esse passivo brasileiro era classificado como redutor de
ativo, na conta de investimentos brasileiros diretos no exterior (IBD). Na
prtica, os emprstimos entre empresas de grupo econmico de capital
brasileiro eram sempre registrados na conta de IBD, mesmo quando o recurso
era tomado junto empresa no residente. O tratamento simtrico para o
caso em que filial ou subsidiria residente no Brasil fornece crdito sua matriz
no exterior: a operao considerada como um ativo redutor de passivo.
4
No caso do BP do Brasil, a indicao do princpio direcional de investimento direto (BPM5)
como item suplementar significa que o BCB continuar publicando essas estatsticas como
memorando aos novos conceitos de investimento direto.
6.42 The directional principle is a presentation of direct investment data
organized according to the direction of the direct investment relationship.
It can be contrasted with the asset and liability presentation of
aggregates used in standard components in this Manual, which are
organized according to whether the investment relates to an asset
or liability. The difference between the asset-liability and directional
presentations arises from differences in the treatment of reverse
investment and some investment between fellow enterprises. The
directional principle can be applied to the IIP, financial account, and
investment income. Under the directional principle, direct investment is
shown as either direct investment abroad or direct investment in the
reporting economy:
(b) Direct investment in the reporting economy includes all liabilities and
assets between resident direct investment enterprises and their direct
investors. It also covers assets and liabilities between resident and
nonresident fellow enterprises if the ultimate controlling parent is
nonresident. Direct investment in the reporting economy is also called
inward direct investment. (grifado)
5
No Relatrio de Inflao de maro de 2015, o boxe Emisses de Subsidirias de Matrizes
Brasileiras no Mercado Internacional
(http://www.bcb.gov.br/htms/relinf/port/2015/03/ri201503b5p.pdf) apresentou estimativa de
que 78,6% das receitas desse tipo de emisses no exterior ingressaram no Brasil na conta de
IBD emprstimos intercompanhia. Cabe ressaltar que os recursos repassados representam
funding provido por investidores estrangeiros, no pertencentes ao grupo econmico da
subsidiria emissora, que adquiriram os papis diretamente no mercado internacional.
3. Investimento direto e lucros reinvestidos
4. Resultados preliminares
The rapid pace of financial globalisation over the past few decades has changed many
aspects of international capital flows. To improve the understanding of these capital
movements, in 2009 the IMF and its members agreed on a new template for collecting
international financial transactions data: the sixth edition of the IMF's Balance of
Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). From January 2015,
the IMF will only accept data submissions under BPM6. In the transition period, some
countries will still be publishing their BoP data under the previous template (BPM5,
introduced in 1993) and the IMF will simply convert those "old" data to the new
standard. Using Brazil as an example, this box illustrates how the conversion
between BPM5 and BPM6 affects the interpretation of FDI flows.
Data published under the two formats reflect somewhat different treatments of
within-company loans, resulting in differences in reported gross FDI inflows and
outflows (Graph B, left-hand and centre panels), even though net FDI flows remain
unchanged. This is because, under BPM5, FDI transactions between affiliates are
recorded on a residence versus non-residence basis, whereas BPM6 differentiates
between the net acquisition of assets and the net incurrence of liabilities. Simply
put, under BPM5, both headquarter lending to affiliates (which increases claims) and
borrowing from affiliates (which increases liabilities) are counted as gross outflows,
albeit with opposite signs. Under BPM6, by contrast, the two activities will fall into
different categories. While headquarter lending to affiliates will continue to count as
capital outflow, borrowing from affiliates will be counted as net incurrence of liabilities
(capital inflow). Using the notation in Graph B (right-hand panel), net acquisition of debt
claims under BPM6 (item 6.1.2) will be the sum of items 5.1.2 and 5.2.2 under BPM5.
Junho de 2015
1. Introduo
1
O BPM6 est disponvel, em ingls, no stio do FMI no endereo
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bopman6.htm.
2
O EDS 2013 est disponvel, em ingls, no stio da TFFS no endereo
http://www.tffs.org/edsguide.htm.
2. Conceito e princpios metodolgicos de dvida externa
5.31 Debt instruments are those instruments that require the payment of
principal and/or interest at some point(s) in the future. Debt instruments
consist of SDRs, currency and deposits, debt securities, loans, insurance
technical reserves, pension and related entitlements, provision for calls under
standardized guarantees, and other accounts receivable/payable. ().
5.32 Debt instruments can be contrasted with equity and investment shares in
the nature of the liability and risk. Whereas equity gives a residual claim on the
assets of the entity, a debt instrument involves an obligation to pay an
amount of principal and/or interest usually according to a predefined
formula, which usually means that the creditor has a more limited risk
exposure. Provided that the debtor is solvent, debt obligations are largely fixed
or linked by a formula to some other variable, such as a market interest rate or
the price of a selected item. In contrast, the return on equity is largely
dependent on the economic performance of the issuer. Because of the different
nature of risk, debt is an important grouping for analysis.()
3
Passivo contingente condicionado a determinado acontecimento para se tornar um passivo
efetivo. Por exemplo, o garantidor de uma operao de crdito possui passivo contingente. Se
o devedor original no honrar a operao, o garantidor assume um passivo.
principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future and
that are owed to nonresidents by residents of an economy.
3.67 Market prices refer to current exchange value, that is, the values at which
goods and other assets, services, and labors are exchanged or else could be
exchanged for cash. Market prices are the basis for valuation in the
international accounts. ()
De acordo com o conceito apresentado pelo BPM6 e pelo EDS 2013, dvida
externa aquela obrigao de uma entidade residente detida por no
residentes, independentemente do local de negociao, da jurisdio, ou da
moeda em que a dvida estiver denominada. Assim, mesmo passivos em
moeda nacional, emitidos no Brasil, podem fazer parte da dvida externa.
US$ bilhes
Ano Ttulos de renda fixa Dvida Externa Bruta (B)1/ Participao (%)
negociados no mercado (A/B)
domstico e detidos por
no residentes (A)
2007 21,1 240,5 8,8
2008 26,5 262,9 10,1
2009 55,9 277,6 20,1
2010 100,7 351,9 28,6
2011 100,5 415,5 24,2
2012 115,5 455,3 25,4
2013 134,6 486,7 27,7
2014 152,1 560,4 27,1
2015 144,7 554,6 26,1
1/ Dvida externa bruta, inclusive operaes intercompanhia, exclusive ttulos de renda fixa
negociados no mercado domstico e detidos por no residentes.
Fonte: CVM e DEMAB - Banco Central do Brasil.
US$ milhes
Governo geral - Longo prazo 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
- Ttulos de dvida Dez Dez Dez Mar Jun Set Dez Mar
Valor de Mercado 49 159 52 388 39 560 39 791 42 499 42 441 42 049 38 187
Valor Nominal 37 776 37 696 35 668 35 302 36 770 38 441 37 855 35 068
Diferena 11 383 14 692 3 892 4 489 5 729 4 000 4 194 3 119
4
Para mais detalhes, ver Nota Metodolgica n 2 Transaes correntes Adoo da 6
Edio do Manual de Balano de Pagamentos e Posio de Investimento Internacional
(BPM6) http://www.bcb.gov.br/ftp/infecon/nm2bpm6p.pdf
Nota para a Imprensa do Setor Externo. Abaixo, seguem as principais
modificaes nos quadros:
G o v e rno ge ra l G o v e rno ge ra l
Lo ngo prazo Lo ngo prazo
Ttulo s de dvida Ttulo s de dvida 2/
Emprstimo s Emprstimo s
Crdito co mercial Crdito co mercial
A ut o rida de m o ne t ria B a nc o C e nt ra l
Lo ngo prazo Lo ngo prazo
Emprstimo s Emprstimo s
Outro s passivo s de dvida Alo ca es DES
B a nc o s B a nc o s
Curto prazo Curto prazo
Ttulo s de dvida Ttulo s de dvida
Emprstimo s Emprstimo s
M o eda e dep sito s M o eda e dep sito s
Lo ngo prazo Lo ngo prazo
Ttulo s de dvida Ttulo s de dvida
Emprstimo s Emprstimo s
O ut ro s s e t o re s O ut ro s s e t o re s
Curto prazo Curto prazo
Ttulo s de dvida Ttulo s de dvida
Emprstimo s Emprstimo s
Crdito co mercial Crdito co mercial
Lo ngo prazo Lo ngo prazo
Ttulo s de dvida Ttulo s de dvida
Emprstimo s Emprstimo s
Crdito co mercial Crdito co mercial
Valo r No minal:
Go verno geral lo ngo prazo ttulo s de dvida
Esto que pagvel em mercado rias: Esto que pagvel em mercado rias:
A partir de abril de 2015, o Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) passar a publicar as estatsticas de
Balano de Pagamentos (BP) e Posio Internacional de Investimento (PII) em conformidade
com a sexta edio do Manual de Balano de Pagamentos e Posio Internacional de
Investimento (BPM6), do Fundo Monetrio Internacional (FMI)1, publicada em 2009. Desde
2001, essas estatsticas so divulgadas pelo BCB de acordo com a 5 edio do Manual de
Balano de Pagamentos (BPM5), de 1993.
1
O BPM6 est disponvel, em ingls, no stio do FMI em
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bopman6.htm.
2
O SNA 2008 est disponvel, em diversos idiomas, no stio da Diviso de Estatsticas da Organizao das
Naes Unidas em http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/sna2008.asp.
3
A lista uma adaptao livre das Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) publicadas no stio do FMI em
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bpm6faq.pdf
2
Metodologia
1. Qual ser o impacto da converso para o BPM6 nos principais agregados da conta
corrente do BP, incluindo importaes (ou pagamentos), exportaes (ou recebimentos),
assim como no balano de bens, servios, renda primria e secundria; e na conta de
capital e de transaes correntes e nos saldos? Adicionalmente, qual ser o impacto da
converso para o BPM6 nos principais agregados da PII (ativos, passivos e PII lquida)?
4
No Includa em Outras Posies (n.i.o.p.).
5
As transferncias de migrantes no devem ser includas nas contas do BP no padro BPM6 por no existir
mudana de titularidade do patrimnio. Em virtude da mudana de residncia do proprietrio, mas no da
propriedade de nenhum de seus ativos, as alteraes no volume de ativos transnacionais (a exemplo de saldos
bancrios e de propriedade imobiliria) e de obrigaes entre distintas economias so registradas como
reclassificaes na rubrica outras alteraes de volume na PII. Ativos e obrigaes financeiras de pessoas que
alteram seu pas de residncia so discutidos nos pargrafos 9.21-9.23 do BPM6.
3
dos mesmos), embora possa permanecer invarivel o comrcio lquido de bens e servios. Na
PII, com a adoo do BPM6, a mudana relativa ao registro de investimento reverso na
categoria investimento direto (ver questo 4) resultar em aumentos significativos do volume
tanto de ativos quanto passivos da PII para diversas economias, embora permanea invarivel
a PII lquida.
No BPM5, o investimento estrangeiro direto era apresentado como componente padro em base
direcional, i.e., o investimento direto na economia informante (lanado na coluna dos passivos
da PII) inclua ativos e passivos entre uma empresa de investimento direto residente e o
correspondente investidor direto no residente, enquanto o investimento brasileiro direto
(lanado na coluna dos ativos da PII) inclua ativos e passivos entre um investidor direto
residente e as correspondentes empresas de investimento direto no residentes.
No BPM6, o investimento direto apresentado como componente padro com base nos ativos
e passivos brutos, detalhados de forma a identificar separadamente a relao entre o investidor
e a entidade receptora do investimento. Assim, por exemplo, todos os ativos so lanados na
coluna dos ativos da PII, detalhando-se o investidor direto em empresas investidas; empresas
investidas em investidor direto (investimento reverso); e entre empresas irms.
6
A excluso de posies devedoras entre corporaes financeiras afiliadas especificada como sendo de
corporaes tomadoras de depsito, fundos de investimento, e outros intermedirios financeiros, com exceo de
empresas de seguro e fundos de penso.
5
Para o Brasil, no entanto, as modificaes relativas ao investimento reverso esto restritas aos
fluxos. Os estoques de investimento direto da PII j consideram ativos e passivos em bases
brutas.
No BPM6, a conta financeira passa a ser consistente com as apresentaes do SNA e da GFS
(Government Finance Statistics) e, alm disso, elimina a prtica do balano de pagamentos de
apresentar um aumento de ativos como um lanamento negativo (dbito).
Conta Corrente e Capital Tanto crditos quanto Crditos com sinal positivo e
dbitos so registrados dbitos com sinal negativo
com sinal positivo
Conta Financeira Aumentos de ativos e Aumentos de ativos e redues
passivos com sinais de passivos com sinais
positivos, e redues de negativos, e redues de ativos
7
No BPM6, para assegurar a consistncia com o SNA 2008, os termos renda primria e renda
secundria substituem renda e transferncias correntes, respectivamente.
O BPM6 aprimora a apresentao dos dados setoriais ao desmembrar outros setores entre
demais empresas financeiras; e Empresas no financeiras, famlias e ISFLSF. Alm disso,
no BPM6, banco central substitui autoridades monetrias como um subsetor institucional,
ao passo que o conceito de autoridades monetrias permanece essencial para a definio dos
ativos de reservas. Por fim, no BPM6 o setor Bancos, do BPM5, substitudo por Bancos,
exceto o Banco Central, em linha com o SNA2008.
A partir do comeo de julho de 2012, o SDMX DSD aplicado ao BP foi submetido aos
comentrios dos pases membros que participam em diversos grupos de trabalho sobre o setor
externo, como o Comit de Estatsticas do Balano de Pagamentos do FMI. Espera-se que, em
breve, o DSD seja disponibilizado na pgina do SDMX para que os pases se familiarizem com
os formatos mais adequados para envio de informaes de estatsticas do BP e da PII. A pgina
do SDMX o meio mais apropriado para acessar livremente as ferramentas disponveis visando
facilitar a implantao dos novos padres.
Contas externas 6 edio do Manual
de Balano de Pagamentos do FMI
(BPM6)
2
Contas externas BPM6 - impactos relativos ao BPM5
O novo balano de pagamentos evidenciou maior internacionalizao
da economia brasileira:
Aumento significativo da participao do capital estrangeiro (IED) na
estrutura produtiva do pas nos ltimos anos => maior participao de
lucros a no residentes
Crescimento da participao de no residentes no estoque de ttulos
domsticos nos ltimos anos => maior fluxo de juros
O aumento na relao TC/PIB decorre de despesas em rubricas
autofinanciveis
O aumento no nvel TC/PIB decorreu, sobretudo, dos registros de lucros
reinvestidos e juros relativos dvida domstica em mo de no
residentes.
Ambos os fluxos tm contrapartida imediata na conta financeira e no se
refletem sobre o mercado de cmbio
3
Contas externas BPM6 - impactos relativos ao BPM5
Aderncia do Balano de Pagamentos do Brasil s melhores prticas
estatsticas internacionais, integrando-se aos pases com padro
metodolgico mais avanado:
Pases europeus
Estados Unidos
Austrlia
Canad
Chile
Colmbia
Rssia
frica do Sul
ndia
Arbia Saudita
Coria do Sul
Malsia
Indonsia
Filipinas
Tailndia 4
Contextualizao
O Balano de Pagamentos (BP) registra os fluxos de transaes
entre residentes e no residentes. A srie do BP teve incio em
1947.
At maro deste ano o Brasil seguiu a 5 verso do manual
(BPM5), publicada pelo FMI em 1993 e adotada pelo pas em
2001.
A sexta verso (BPM6) foi publicada pelo FMI em 2009. O BPM6
traz avanos importantes com o objetivo de, entre outros:
Harmonizar as estatsticas do setor externo com as de contas
nacionais (SNA 2008, padro para o qual o IBGE publicou
resultados em maro de 2015)
Integrar fluxos e estoques
A migrao das contas externas do Brasil para o BPM6, em 2015,
foi um compromisso assumido pelo Pas junto ao FMI, SDDS, G20
e Data Gaps.
5
Alteraes estatsticas no mbito da implementao do BPM6
BPM6
32 Quadros e
31 Anexos os anexos contm a distribuio por pas e setor de
contas do balano de pagamentos ( exceo de duas tabelas sobre
reservas internacionais e uma com faixas de valor para o investimento
direto)
Tabelas novas:
Quadro VIII: Conta capital
Quadro XVIII: Cmbio contratado financeiro detalhado
Quadro XXXII: Demonstrativo integrado da posio de investimento
internacional
Anexo 16: Investimento direto no pas fluxos lquidos totais
distribuio por setor de atividade econmica
Anexo 17: Investimento direto no pas fluxos lquidos totais
distribuio por pas imediato
Principais mudanas
Investimento direto de residentes/no residentes x IBD/IED
Exemplo: a subsidiria offshore captou US$10 bilhes no exterior e emprestou os recursos
para a matriz no Brasil.
BPM5: o ingresso de recursos no Brasil registrado como reduo do Investimento
Brasileiro Direto (IBD) no exterior, na conta de emprstimos intercompanhia;
BPM6: o ingresso de recursos no Brasil registrado como elevao do Investimento Direto
de no residentes, na conta de emprstimos intercompanhia.
A mudana anloga quando, eventualmente, filial no Brasil emprestar para sua matriz no
exterior.
8
Principais mudanas
Incorporao de lucros reinvestidos: impactam as transaes correntes
e, simultaneamente, elevam os investimentos diretos no Brasil, e os
investimentos diretos no exterior. As fontes de dados (novas) so as
pesquisas do Censo de capitais estrangeiros no Brasil (Censo) e de
Capitais Brasileiros no exterior (CBE)
9
Balana comercial e servios1/
6,0% 5,1% Balana comercial / PIB
5,0% A srie de balana comercial sofreu alterao
4,0% marginal pela incorporao dos dados de
3,0% importao de energia e outros ajustes
2,0%
0,9% 1,2%
1,0% 0,1%
0,8% 1,1% -0,2%
0,0%
0,0% -0,2%
-1,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
4,0%
BPM5 BPM6
0,0%
-1,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BPM5 BPM6
6,0%
Despesa lquida de juros / PIB
Remessa lquida de Lucros / PIB
5,0% 6,0%
4,0% 5,0%
3,0% 4,0%
3,0% 2,5%
2,0%
1,5% 2,0% 2,0%
0,9%
2,0%
1,0% 0,6% 0,7% 0,9% 2,1% 1,2%1,3%
0,6% 1,4% 1,6% 1,6%
1,0% 1,5% 1,4% 1,5%
0,5% 0,4% 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% 1,1% 1,2% 1,2%
0,0%
0,0%
-1,0% -1,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BPM5 BPM6
4,0% 4,1%
4,0%
3,9%
3,5%
3,7%
3,5%
3,0%
2,9% 2,9%
2,9%
2,5% 2,7%
2,3%
2,0%
1,5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BPM5 BPM6
120%
110%
100%
93%
90%
80%
70%
68%
60%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
14
Financiamento
350%
Capital estrangeiro / Transaes correntes
300%
250%
200%
152%
150%
128%
100%
50%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BPM5 BPM6
15
Contas externas 6 edio do Manual
de Balano de Pagamentos do FMI
(BPM6)
1. Introduction
4. Compilation mechanics
DIBAP is responsible not only for compiling external sector statistics (ESS), but also to provide the analysis
considering monetary policy and exchange rate policy
CBB implemented BPM6 standard on April, 2015. The BoP figures are released on monthly basis in 3 or 4
weeks after the end of the base period
Data sources - BoP
Main source: ITRS - basically the FX settlement system (daily)
Other sources:
Administrative
Customs and Ministry of Trade (weekly, goods)
Consolidated Balance Sheets of the Financial System - COSIF (monthly, mainly deposit assets, assuring the double-entries
for most of the transactions)
International Reserves Department (daily, interest credits)
Selic, a Brazilian custodian system (monthly, debit interests on public debt securities issued in the country)
Surveys
Brazilian capital abroad (quarterly, reinvested earnings) and
Census of foreign capital in Brazil (annual, reinvested earnings)
Information from Brazilian companies that leave exports revenues abroad
Others (Seagoing transportation companies, Insurance companies, )
Estimates (mainly to transportation accounts)
Data sources - IIP
Surveys
Brazilian capital abroad (quarterly, threshold USD100 million, all assets other than reserves)
Brazilian capital abroad (annual, benchmark survey with a threshold of USD100 thousand, all assets other than reserves)
Census of foreign capital in Brazil (annual, enterprises with net worth equal or greater than USD100 million, direct investment-
equity liabilities)
Census of foreign capital in Brazil (five-year, benchmark survey with no threshold, direct investment-equity liabilities)
International Reserves Department (daily, reserve assets)
Electronic Registry of Foreign Capital - RDE (daily/monthly, loans, debt securities and trade credits)
Brazilian security and exchange commission (CVM) (monthly, stock exchange and private debt securities issued in the country)
Selic, a Brazilian custodian system (monthly, public debt securities issued in the country)
ITRS Exchange contract system
It is reminiscent, as in many countries, from a FX control system. Although controls were lifted years ago, the exchange
registration structure was kept mainly for statistical purposes
In Brazil there is (almost) no bank accounts denominated in foreign currency. Furthermore, with almost no exceptions,
transactions among residents may not be settled in foreign currency, by law
In this sense, FX transactions (primary market) generally reflects a BoP transaction between a resident and non resident
Mandatory FX contracts registration for each and every (no reporting threshold) resident to non-resident transaction
results in high frequency data with very good coverage
Exchange contracts are generated outside the CBB Information System (SISBACEN), but are daily submitted to it by all
banks and all other foreign exchange dealers
Data are available online:
More than 600.000 exchange contracts are settled monthly
30.000 daily, on average
Compilation mechanics
To transform the FX contracts into BoP data, a dedicated IT platform is needed. At the core of the data
compilation process is a Data Warehouse (DW), which was designed specifically for BOP
The compilation of statistics is done by converting ITRS data into BOP data. This conversion is done by means
of translating combinations of the ITRS fields into standard IMF BPM6 codes
The DW receives inputs from the ITRS and the other data sources, stores and transforms them into BoP
statistics, and also serves as a platform for feeding regular publications and other ad-hoc requests tables.
Compilation mechanics
ITRS Inflow
Balance of Payments
Transaction Code Outflow
Standard
BPM6
Components
conversion
Classification
Resident Non Resident Table
Characteristics Characteristics
Compilation mechanics
Data Sources
ITRS Database
Administrative
Surveys
Quality Assessment
Outputs
Estimates Reclassification Daily BoP estimates
Other Publications
Time Series
Data quality assessment procedures are used to verify transactions in any of their dimensions in order to
adequately reflect the characteristics of transactions from a BOP point of view. Data can be adjusted in any of its
dimensions (economic nature, economic sector of the counterpart, intercompany lending)and transactions of any
value can be reclassified
In this process, additional sources of information may be used:
Results of previous analyzes
Registries of debt and FDI positions
Central Bank surveys on Brazilian external assets and liabilities
Websites and magazines specialized in business groups info
Contact with the financial institution responsible for the FX contract
Direct contact with the resident party in the FX contract
Compilation mechanics
50 000
400%
40 000
300%
30 000
65% 200%
20 000 29%
10 000 100%
0 0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Foreign capital gross inflow Foreign capital gross outflow Rollover rate
BPM6 Issues and capital flows
Some disadvantages of the Brazilian ITRS (and how to overcome)
A minor part of the non-cash transactions are covered by ITRS. In the process of the BPM6 implementation, some of these
issues were addressed:
Reinvested earnings (solution: surveys)
Income on debt securities issued in the domestic market and denominated in domestic currency (solution: custodian
information)
Cost of reporting
Sunk costs, the system was implemented decades ago. The IT platform was updated in 2012, and the banks and
enterprises are used to run their business in this way
From the companies point of view, these are settlements of FX transactions, and not report to the statistics compilation
The information regarding each settlement would exist even without the FX system, for internal purposes
BPM6 Issues and capital flows
Reinvested earnings
The data source was lost in 1998
Two surveys, Brazilian Capital Abroad (CBE) and Census of foreign capital, were modified and validated in order
to produce the information requested
Challenges in the new sources compared to other ones:
Frequency: annual or quarterly, not monthly
Timeliness: +5 months to credits; +9 months to debits
Therefore, estimations are needed and the pattern of revision will be much different than other accounts
Explain to domestic public: i) these are not transactions in the foreign exchange market; ii) this particular deficit
in the current account is fully financed
In 2014 reinvested earnings for enterprises in brazil reached USD10.7 billion (net direct investment liabilities
added up USD96.9 billion)
BPM6 Issues and capital flows
Interest expenses debt securities issued in the country
All the settlements in the domestic market are in BRL, by law
From 2005 until 2015 the portion of domestic public debt denominated in BRL in the domestic market, and held
by non resident investors rose from less than 1% to around 20%, reaching more than USD150 billion
Before BPM6 implementation, the BoP registered the payment of interest on these securities just when the
resources were converted from BRL to foreign currency in the foreign exchange market.
More than 90% of the interest paid in BRL were reinvested in another securities in the domestic market
We added the Selic (custodian system) as data source to the payment of interest in BRL
This compilation process remains considering cash basis
The stock of domestic securities held by nonresidents was already a liability in the Brazilian IIP, but now is also
classified as external debt
Primary income1/
5,0%
4,0%
2,9%
3,0% 2,6% 2,7%
3,0% 2,0% 2,2%
2,0% 2,5%
1,8% 1,9% 1,8% 1,9%
1,0% 1,6%
0,0%
-1,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BPM5 BPM6
6,0% Interest net expenses / GDP
5,0%
6,0% Dividends net expenses / GDP
4,0%
5,0%
3,0% 4,0%
2,0% 3,0% 2,5%
1,5% 2,0% 2,0% 1,2%
0,6% 0,7% 0,9% 0,9% 2,0% 1,3%
1,0% 0,6% 2,1%
0,7% 1,0% 1,4% 1,5% 1,6% 1,6% 1,4% 1,5%
0,0% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% 1,1% 1,2% 1,2%
0,0%
-1,0% -1,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BPM5 BPM6 BPM5 BPM6
1/ / Preliminary and estimated data for BPM6, from 2010 to 2013 18
BPM6 Issues and capital flows
Direct investment:
Looking at the liquidity after financial crisis of 2008-09, the headquarters in Brazil used its affiliates abroad to issue debt
securities in the international markets. The receipt of the issuing was transferred to Brazil, arising an intercompany loan
According to BPM5 and the directional principle, the transaction was recorded as a liability reducing the asset
Following BPM6 and the assest/liability principle, however, the transaction must be recorded as an increase of direct
investment - liability
US$ million
Direct investment assets - 2014 Direct investment liabilities - 2014
US$ million
30 000 25 736 Reivested earnings: USD 10.7 billion 96 851
100 000
25 000
Reivested earnings: USD 6 billion
20 000 80 000
15 000 62 495
10 000 60 000
5 000
40 000
-
- 5 000
- 3 540 20 000
- 10 000
BPM5 BPM6 -
BPM5 BPM6
BPM6 Issues and capital flows
BCB released
methodological notes to
describe the main changes
adopted in the context of
BPM6
The BPM6 changes and
the non BPM6 changes
were mixed comprising
an unique package
BPM6 Issues and capital flows
BPM6 Project - 2011 to 2015:
The BPM6 implementation project took formally two years, but some earlier actions were essential. For example, from 2011 to
2013, new exchange contract codes for the nature of the operations were defined (this work involved different departments of
the CBB, including statistics, supervision and regulation):
Development of a new DW and new accounts structure on BPM6 basis
Data sources improvement: IBGE (Brazilian national statistical office), and other governmental and private institutions
Experiences from other countries: technical visits (France and Italy) and seminars
New format of the External Sector Press Release
Communication to internal and external audiences:
Officers and policy makers
Journalist: lessons on the new standard
Market: seminar with analysts (expected on second half of 2015)
Universities: seminar with researchers (expected on second half of 2015)
BPM6 Issues and capital flows
Backcast the series is the current main challenge faced by compilers
Between September 2015 and February 2016 we expect to publish the time series backdated until 1947 (annual
basis), 1979 (quarterly basis) and 1995 (monthly basis). So, the review will be more accurate as more recent the year
Thank you for your attention
thiago.vieira@bcb.gov.br
dibap.depec@bcb.gov.br
WorkingGrouponInternationalInvestmentStatistics
Paris,October20,2015
TheBrazilianExperienceonEstimating
ReinvestedEarnings
CamilaMaiaCarneiro Costa
DepartmentofEconomics
CentralBankofBrazil
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Data Sources
6. Challenges
Introduction
The main source of Brazils monthly BoP statistics is an International
Transaction Reporting System (ITRS), called Exchange Contract System;
The ITRS is reminiscent, as in many countries, from a FX control system.
Although controls were lifted years ago, the exchange registration structure
was kept mainly for statistical purposes;
The ITRS captures all exchanges between domestic and foreign currencies due
to transactions occurred between Brazil and the rest of the world;
As reinvested earnings dont affect exchange rates flows, they could not be
compiled using information from ITRS. As a result, Brazil stopped compiling
statistics on Reinvested Earnings in 1999.
DataSources
First release of monthly data on Reinvested Earnings in April 2015, as part of
BPM6 edition adoption;
Establishment of two main surveys: Census of Foreign Capital and Brazilian
Capital Abroad:
Census of Foreign Capital: focus on domestic invested enterprises. Carried
out in 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010, as a population survey, and since 2011
as an annual sample survey;
Brazilian Capital Abroad: purpose of evaluating the stock of foreign assets
held by Brazilian residents abroad. Its been an annual population survey
since 2001 and also a quaterly sample survey since 2011.
Reinvested Earnings on Expenditures
Direct Investment Liabilities
Census of Foreign Capital: information on enterprises profits
2010: population survey
2011 and beyond: sample survey
Extrapolating sample data to estimate population data
US$miillions SurveyandEstimatedData
ProfitsinForeignDirectInvestment
$90.000,00
$70.000,00
$50.000,00
$30.000,00
$10.000,00
R$millions
10.000,00
SixMonthsMovingAverage
9.000,00
8.000,00
7.000,00
6.000,00
5.000,00
4.000,00
3.000,00
2.000,00
1.000,00
Sectorization andmonthly estimation
Annual data on profits, which source is Census, and monthly data on
dividends, provided by ITRS challenge of constructing
monthly series on profits through annual survey data;
Economy sectorization to better reflect actual scenarios;
Monthly distribution/estimation of profits according to sector
indicators. US$
$1.000.000.000,00
Telecommunications
US$ $500.000.000,00
FinancialServices
$2.000.000.000,00
$
set/10
set/11
set/12
set/13
set/14
mai/10
mai/11
mai/12
mai/13
mai/14
jan/10
jan/11
jan/12
jan/13
jan/14
jan/15
$1.500.000.000,00
$1.000.000.000,00
set/11
set/12
set/13
set/14
mai/10
mai/11
mai/12
mai/13
mai/14
jan/10
jan/11
jan/12
jan/13
jan/14
jan/15
$600.000.000,00
$500.000.000,00
$400.000.000,00
$200.000.000,00
set/
set/
set/
jan/
mai
set/
mai
set/
jan/
jan/
mai
jan/
mai
jan/
mai
jan/
Reinvested Earnings on Expenditures
Direct Investment Liabilities
US$millions ReinvestedEarnings AnnualData
40.000,00
35.000,00
30.000,00
25.000,00
20.000,00
15.000,00
10.000,00
5.000,00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*datatill
august
US$millions
4.000,00 ReinvestedEarnings ForeignDirectInvestmentinBrazil
3.500,00
3.000,00
2.500,00
2.000,00
1.500,00
1.000,00
500,00
mar/15
mar/10
mar/14
set/10
mar/11
nov/10
set/11
mar/12
nov/11
set/12
mar/13
nov/12
set/13
nov/13
set/14
nov/14
jul/15
jul/10
jul/11
jul/12
jul/13
jul/14
mai/15
mai/10
mai/11
mai/12
mai/13
mai/14
jan/10
jan/11
jan/12
jan/13
jan/14
jan/15
(500,00)
(1.000,00)
Reinvested Earnings on Expenditures
Direct Investment Liabilities
500,00
mar/15
mar/10
mar/14
set/10
mar/11
nov/10
set/11
mar/12
nov/11
set/12
mar/13
nov/12
set/13
nov/13
set/14
nov/14
jul/15
jul/10
jul/11
jul/12
jul/13
jul/14
mai/15
mai/10
mai/11
mai/12
mai/13
mai/14
jan/10
jan/11
jan/12
jan/13
jan/14
jan/15
(500,00)
4,0%
2,9%
3,0% 2,6% 2,7%
3, 2,0% 2,2%
2,0% 2,5%
1, 1,9%
1,0%
1,9% 1,6% 1,8%
0,0%
1,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BPM5 BPM6
camila.maia@bcb.gov.br