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FIELD ASSIGNMENT
Quantitative methods emphasize or highlight on objective measurements and numerical analysis i.e. unbiased
measurements of data collected through various methods such as polls, questionnaires, surveys, and studies.
Quantitative analysis has its eyes on the collection of numerical data followed by a substantial circulation by
generalizing the information throughout groups of people. The aim of quantitative research is to determine
the relationship between two variables that is a reliant and an independent variable in a population,
quantitative research designs are either descriptive or speculative. A descriptive study establishes associations
between variables while an experiment study focuses only on the casualty outcome. The characteristics of a
quantitative research are:

The data is gathered utilizing structured research instruments, the research study can be replicated,
information i.e. data is in the form of numbers or statistics and the tools used by the researcher are
such as questionnaires.

Quantitative research methods are relevantly useful in a wide range of subjects like science, economics,
marketing, engineering, medicine, public health, psychology education and sports. The study of quantitative
research methods prepares scholars for careers in scholastic organizations, government and research firms
worldwide. It employs emphasis in survey methods, structural equations modelling and multivariate statistics.

In basic, there are 2 types of information, qualitative and specifically quantitative information. Qualitative
information is a categorical measurement displayed in regards to natural language description. Gender is a
categorical/non-numerical variable has 2 groups -female & male.

Quantitative information is a mathematical measurements provided in regards to numbers. Marks of the

students, height and weight of clients, and the number of books in a library are some examples of quantitative
information. Quantitative information are likewise called as details including numbers and anything that is
quantifiable.

Quantitative methods are research study strategies which are extremely utilized for inventory or discussion of
the quantitative information. The outcomes of these methods are generally provided in regards to charts and
tables utilizing data such as frequencies, portions, steps of average, steps of dispersion and so on.

Quantitative methods are really effective tools for resolving various mathematical issues. Modern quantitative
methods are utilized for resolving numerous physical, affordable, social issues utilizing calculation innovations
when the analytical option cannot be discovered. The application of quantitative methods typically raises an
issue.

Prior to developing a quantitative research study, you need to choose whether it will be speculative or
detailed due to the fact that this will determine how you collect, evaluate, and analyze the outcomes.
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CASE
Hamilton County judges try thousands of cases per year. In an overwhelming majority of the cases disposed,
the verdict stands as rendered. However, some cases are appealed, and of those appealed, some of the cases
are reversed. Kristen DelGuzzi of the Cincinnati Enquirer conducted a study of cases handled by Hamilton
County judges over a three-year period (Cincinnati Enquirer, January 11, 1998). Shown in table, are the results
for 182,908 cases handled by 38 judges in Common Pleas Court, Domestic Relation Court, and Municipal
Court. Two of the judges (Dinkelacker and Hogan) did not serve in the same court for the entire three-year
period.

The purpose of the newspapers study was to evaluate the performance of the judges. Appeals are often the
result of mistakes made by judges, and the newspaper wanted to know which judges were doing good job and
which were making too many mistakes. You have been called in to assist in the data analysis. Use your
knowledge of probability and conditional probability to help with the ranking of the judges. You also may be
able to analyze the likelihood of cases handled by the different courts being appealed and reversed.

CASES DISPOSED, APPEALED, AND REVERSED IN HAMILTON COUNTY COURTS

COMMON PLEAS COURT

JUDGE TOTAL CASES DISPOSED APPEALED CASES REVERSED CASES
Fred Cartolano 3037 137 12
Thomas Crush 3372 119 10
Patrick Dinkelacker 1258 44 8
Timothy Hogan 1954 60 7
Robert Kraft 3138 127 7
William Mathews 2264 91 18
William Morrissey 3032 121 22
Norbert Nadel 2959 131 20
Arthur Ney Jr. 3219 125 14
Richard Niehaus 3353 137 16
Thomas Nurre 3000 121 6
John O Connor 2969 129 12
Robert Ruehlman 3205 145 18
J. Howard Sundermann 955 60 10
Ann Marie Tracey 3141 127 13
Ralph Winkler 3089 88 6
Total 43,945 1762 199

DOMESTIC RELATIONS COURT

JUDGE TOTAL CASES DIPOSED APPEALED CASES RESERVED CASES
Penelope Cunningham 2729 7 1
Patrick Dinkelacker 6001 19 4
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Deborah Gaines 8799 489 9

Ronald Paniota 12,970 32 3
Total 30,499 106 17

MUNICIPAL COURT
JUDGE TOTAL CASES DIPOSED APPEALED CASES REVERSED CASES
Mike Allen 6149 43 4
Nadine Allen 7812 34 6
Timothy Black 7954 41 6
David Davis 7736 43 5
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5282 35 13
Karla Grady 5253 6 0
Deidra Hair 2532 5 0
Dennis Helmick 7900 29 5
Timothy Hogan 2308 13 2
James Patrick Kenney 2798 6 1
Joseph Luebbers 4698 25 8
William Mallory 8277 38 9
Melba Marsh 8219 34 7
Beth Mattingly 2971 13 1
Albert Mestemaker 4975 28 9
Mark Painter 2239 7 3
Jack Rosen 7790 41 13
Mark Schweikert 5403 33 6
David Stockdale 5371 22 4
John A. West 2797 4 2
Total 108,464 500 104

MANAGERIAL REPORT
Prepare a report with your rankings of the judges. Also, include an analysis of the likelihood of appeal and case
reversal in the three courts. At a minimum, your report should include the following:

1. The probability of cases being appealed and reversed in the three different courts.
2. The probability of a case being appealed for each judge.
3. The probability of a case being reversed for each judge.
4. The probability of reversal given an appeal for each judge.
5. Rank the judges within each court. State the criteria you used and provide a rationale for your choice.
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PROBABILITY
Statistics is a branch of mathematics that deals with collecting and analyzing data. Specific statistical methods
have helped the civilization to identify, study, and solve a variety of problems. Statistics help people make
effective decisions in uncertain situations. Probability is used to illustrate events that do not take place with
certainty. Statistics reveals the concepts of association between two variables, probability, random sampling,
and estimation.

People in various occupations tend to apply statistics. Health specialists use statistical methods to resolve
whether a particular drug or procedure is useful in the treatment of medical issues. Weather forecasters use
statistics to more precisely predict the weather. Engineers use statistics to scale standards for product safety,
security and quality. Scientists employ statistical methods to conduct efficient experiments. Economists apply
statistical techniques in foreseeing future economic tendencies.

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

The conditional probability of an event B is the probability that the event will occur given the knowledge that
an event A has already occurred. This probability is written P(B|A), notation for the probability of B given A. In
the case where events A and B are independent (where event A has no effect on the probability of event B),
the conditional probability of event B given event A is simply the probability of event B, that is P(B).

If events A and B are not independent, then the probability of the intersection of A and B (the probability
that both events occur) is defined by
P (A and B) = P(A)P(B|A).

From this definition, the conditional probability P(B|A) is easily obtained by dividing by P(A):
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To calculate the probability of the intersection of more than two events, the conditional probabilities of all of
the preceding events must be considered. In the case of three events, A, B, and C, the probability of the
intersection P(A and B and C) = P(A)P(B|A)P(C|A and B).

Consider the college applicant who has determined that he has 0.80 probability of acceptance and that only
60% of the accepted students will receive dormitory housing. Of the accepted students who receive dormitory
housing, 80% will have at least one roommate. The probability of being accepted and receiving dormitory
housing and having no roommates is calculated by:
P(Accepted and Dormitory Housing and No Roommates) = P(Accepted)P(Dormitory Housing|Accepted)P(No
Roomates|Dormitory Housing and Accepted) = (0.80)*(0.60)*(0.20) = 0.096. The student has about a 10%
chance of receiving a single room at the college.

Another important method for calculating conditional probabilities is given by Bayes formula. The formula is
based on the expression P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|Ac)P(Ac), which simply states that the probability of event B is
the sum of the conditional probabilities of event B given that event A has or has not occurred. For
independent events A and B, this is equal to P(B)P(A) + P(B)P(Ac) = P(B)(P(A) + P(Ac)) = P(B)(1) = P(B), since the
probability of an event and its complement must always sum to 1. Bayes formula is defined as follows:

Probabilities used to assist with Ranking of Hamilton County Judges

After the current statistics were gathered to produce data analysis regarding Hamilton County Judges, we can
come to a conclusion and rank judges appropriately by their probability to be appealed, reversed and a
combination of the both.

With the provided data analysis, I have included statistics to all probabilities including: total cases disposed,
appealed cases, reversed cases, probability of appeal, rank by probability of appeal, probability of reversal,
and rank by probability of reversal, conditional probability of reversal given appeal, rank by conditional
st nd rd
probability of reversal given appeal and overall sum of ranks. The judges that rank the highest (i.e. 1 , 2 , 3 )
have the lowest probability to have appealed cases, reversed cases and lowest conditional probability of
reversed cases given appeal. In my opinion, by ranking the judges as such, we can see how often their ruling is
upheld, which is ultimately desirable when concerning the credibility of a judge.

I have provided rankings for all three different courts including: Common Pleas Court, Domestic Relations
Court and Municipal Court. These overall rankings are gathered by summing up all of the rankings by the three
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probability variables. I have also provided data analysis which interprets who is the most credible judge overall
out of the three courts.

Judges with Lowest Probability of Appeals

Court Judge Probability of Appeal

Common Pleas Ralph Winkler 0.02849
Domestic Relations Ronald Panioto 0.00247
Municipal Karla Grady 0.00114

Judges with Lowest Probability of Reversal

Court Judge Probability of Reversal
Common Pleas Ralph Winkler 0.00194
Domestic Relations Ronald Panioto 0.00023
Municipal Karla Grady & Deidra Hair 0.00000

Judges with Lowest Probability of Reversal given that they have had an Appeal

Court Judge Probability of Reversal

Common Pleas Thomas Nurre 0.04959
Domestic Relations Ronald Panioto 0.09375
Municipal Karla Grady & Deidra Hair 0.00000

Probability of Reversal

0.09375
0.1
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.04959
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0
0.01
0
Thomas Nurre Ronald Panioto Karla Grady & Deidra Hair
Common Pleas Domestic Relations Municipal
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Data Analysis Regarding Common Pleas Court

COMMON PLEAS COURT

Judges Total Cases Disposed Appealed Cases Reversed Cases Probability of AppealRank Prabability of Reversal Rank Conditional Probability of Reversal given Appeal Rank Sum of Ranks
Fred Cartolano 3037 137 12 0.04511 14 0.00395 6 0.08759 5 25
Thomas Crush 3372 119 10 0.03529 4 0.00297 4 0.08403 4 12
Patrick Dinkelacker 1258 44 8 0.03498 3 0.00636 12 0.18182 14 29
Timothy Hogan 1954 60 7 0.03071 2 0.00358 5 0.11667 9 16
Robert Kraft 3138 127 7 0.04047 10 0.00223 3 0.05512 2 15
William Mathews 2264 91 18 0.04019 7 0.00795 15 0.1978 16 38
William Morrissey 3032 121 22 0.03991 6 0.00726 14 0.18182 15 35
Norbert Nadel 2959 131 20 0.04427 13 0.00676 13 0.15267 12 38
Arthur Ney Jr. 3219 125 14 0.03883 5 0.00435 9 0.112 8 22
Richaed Niehaus 3353 137 16 0.04086 11 0.00477 10 0.11679 10 31
Thomas Nurre 3000 121 6 0.04033 8 0.002 2 0.04959 1 11
John O' Connor 2969 129 12 0.04345 12 0.00404 7 0.09302 6 25
Robert Ruehlman 3205 145 18 0.04524 15 0.00562 11 0.12414 11 37
J. Howard Sundermann 955 60 10 0.06383 16 0.01047 16 0.16667 13 45
Ann Marie Tracey 3141 127 13 0.04043 9 0.00414 8 0.10236 7 24
Ralph Winkler 3089 88 6 0.02849 1 0.00194 1 0.06818 3 5
Total 43,945 1762 199 0.65139 0.07839 1.80268
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Data Analysis Regarding Municipal Court

MUNICIPAL COURT
Judges Total Cases Disposed Appealed Cases Reversed Cases Probability of AppealRank Prabability of Reversal Rank Conditional Probability of Reversal given Appeal Rank Sum of Ranks
Mike Allen 6149 43 4 0.00699 20 0.00065 6 0.09302 3 29
Nadine Allen 7812 34 6 0.00435 29 0.00077 10 0.17647 9 28
Timothy Black 7954 41 6 0.00515 1 0.00075 9 0.14634 5 26
David Davis 7736 43 5 0.00556 15 0.00065 5 0.11628 4 24
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5282 35 13 0.00663 19 0.00246 19 0.37143 17 55
Karla Grady 5253 6 0 0.00114 1 0 1 0 1 3
Diedra Hair 2532 5 0 0.00197 3 0 1 0 1 5
Dennis Helmick 7900 29 5 0.00367 6 0.00063 4 0.17241 8 18
Timothy Hogan 2308 13 2 0.00563 17 0.00087 12 0.15385 6 35
james patrick Kenney 2798 6 1 0.00214 4 0.00036 3 0.16667 7 14
Joseph Luebbers 4698 25 8 0.00532 14 0.0017 17 0.32 15 46
William mallory 8277 38 9 0.00459 11 0.00109 13 0.23684 13 37
Melba Marsh 8219 34 7 0.00414 8 0.00085 11 0.20588 12 31
Beth Mattingly 2971 13 1 0.00438 10 0.00034 2 0.07692 2 14
Albert Mestemaker 4975 28 9 0.00563 16 0.00181 18 0.32143 10 44
Mark Painter 2239 7 3 0.00313 5 0.00134 15 0.42857 18 38
Jack Rosen 7,790 41 13 0.00526 13 0.00167 16 0.31707 14 43
Mark Schweikert 5403 33 6 0.00611 18 0.00111 14 0.18182 10 42
David Stockdale 5371 22 4 0.0041 7 0.00074 8 0.18182 11 26
John A. West 2797 4 2 0.00143 2 0.00072 7 0.5 19 28
Total 108464 500 104 0.08733 0.0185 4.16683
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Data Analysis Regarding Domestic Relations Court

Domestic Relations Court

Judges Total Cases Disposed Appealed Cases Reversed Cases Probability of appeal Rank Prabability of Reversal Rank Conditional Probability of Reversal given Appeal Rank Sum of Ranks
Penelope Cunninghum 2729 7 1 0.00257 2 0.00037 2 0.14286 2 6
Patrick Dinkelecker 6001 19 4 0.00317 3 0.00067 3 0.21053 4 10
Deborah Gaines 8799 48 9 0.00546 4 0.00102 4 0.1875 3 11
Ronald Panioto 12970 32 3 0.00247 1 0.00023 1 0.09375 1 3
Total 30499 106 17 0.01365 0.00229 0.63463
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Taking into consideration the sum of all rankings of all three data analysis, we can come up with a general
ranking of the top Judges from each court. This is a representation of ranking, the overall effectiveness of the
judges. This is done by taking a sum of all of the three ranking variables and whoever has the lowest sum
represents the judge with the best rankings. The following conclusion was made. As shown by my data
analysis above, Judge Ralph Winkler has the best ranking in Common Pleas Court, Ronald Panioto has the best
ranking in Domestic Relations Court and Karla Grady has the best ranking in Municipal Court. And J. Howard
Sundermann has last rank in Common Pleas Court, Leslie Isaiah Gaines has last rank in Municipal Court and
Deborah Gaines has last rank in Domestic Relations Court.
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