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Week 02
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Some important things:
1. Please read chapter 2 from Walpole s
book (page 35-76) to build your basic
understanding of probability
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Today s Dialogue
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Why PROBABILITY?
" Statistics measures observed data to describe
inner-information provided by the data
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Today s Dialogue
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4.0 Counting Sample Points
" Set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called
the sample space (S).
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4.0 Counting Sample Points
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Tree Diagram
" Example:
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Multiplication Rule
" Should we list all sample points with tree diagram?
No, if we have very large sample points
" Example 1:
Compute a sample points if two dices are tossed together
" Example 2:
How many menus can be formed if you have 4 soup, 3
sandwiches, 5 desserts, and 4 drinks?
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Multiplication Rule
" Example 3:
10 digits phone number in Yogyakarta
consists of 0274 for 1st, 2nd , 3rd, and 4th
numbers. The 5th should not be 0.
How many phone number can be formed in
Yogyakarta?
" Example 4:
Suppose in Yogyakarta, we have 8 digits car
plate number with AB as the 1st and 2nd
digits. 3rd 6th digits are number. 7th and 8th
digits are alphabet from A to Z. How many
car plate can be produced in Yogyakarta?
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Permutation
! n $ n!
n Pr = P # &=
" r % ( n r )!
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Permutation
" Example 1:
How many arrangements can be formed from the characters
A, B, and C?
" Example 2:
How many arrangements can be created if we choose 2
characters from four characters A, B, C, and D ?
" Example 3:
Two coupons are taken from 200 coupons to be nominated as
1st and 2nd winner. In how many ways we can arrange 1st and
2nd winner?
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Combination
! n $ n!
nCr = C # &=
" r % r!( n r )!
" Obviously, combination result is less than permutation s
nCr nPr
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Combination
" Example 1:
A young boy asks his mother to get 5 Game-Boy cartridges
from his collection of 10 arcade and 5 sports games. How
many ways are there that his mother can get 3 arcade and 2
sports games?
" Example 2:
14 blue balls is saved inside a box. If we grab 3 balls out of
the box, find all possible ways to get those balls.
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Today s Dialogue
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4.1 Events
" In any given experiment, we may be interested in occurrence
of certain events rather than in the outcome of a specific
element in the sample space.
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4.1 Events
" Field 1: complement
The complement of an event A with respect to S is the set of
all elements of S that are not in A. We denote the complement
of A by the symbol A ( A )
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4.1 Events
" Example 1: complement
Consider S = {A, B, C, D, E, F, G}. If event A = {A, C, E, G},
define A !
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Today s Dialogue
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4.2 Probability of an Event
" The probability of an event A is the sum of the weights of all
sample points in A. Therefore:
0 P(A) 1, P() = 0, and P(S) = 1
" Example:
A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least one
head occurs?
" Solution:
Compute the sample space:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Define A = {HH, HT, TH}
1 1 1 3
P(A) = + + =
4 4 4 4
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4.2 Probability of an Event
" Example 1:
A mixture of candies contains 6 mints, 4 toffees, and 3
chocolates. If a person makes a random selection of these
candies, find the probability of getting:
(a) a mint (b) a toffee
" Example 2:
In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of
holding 2 aces and 3 jacks by taking five cards at the same
time.
" Example 3:
Suppose we have 6 balls in the box, consist 3 red balls, 2 blue
balls, 1 black balls. If we take randomly 2 balls from the box
at the same time, compute probability that both taken balls
are blue balls.
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Sampai tanggal 18 /2
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Today s Dialogue
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4.3 Conditional probability and independence
The probability of an event B, given that an event A has
occurred, is called the conditional probability of B given A
and denoted by the symbol P(B|A)
P(A B)
P(B | A) = , if P(A) > 0
P(A)
P(B | A) = P(B)
P(A | B) = P(A)
Otherwise A and B are dependent
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4.3 Conditional probability and independence
Example 1:
Sample space S is the population of adults in small town who have completed
the requirements for a college degree. One of these individuals is to be selected
at random for a tour throughout the country to publicize the advantages of
establishing new industries in the town. We shall be concerned with the
following events:
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4.3 Conditional probability and independence
" Example 2:
Consider the experiment of tossing a fair dice and define the
following events:
A = {Observe an even number of dots}
B = {Observe a number of dots less or equal to 4}
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Today s Dialogue
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Addition rule
Multiplicative rule
Bayes s Formula
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Addition rules
" If A and B are any two events, then
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Multiplicative rule
P(A B) = P(A)P(B)
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Total probability
If the event B may occur together with one and only one of
n mutually exclusive events
A1, A2, ..., An then:
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P(B) = P(A j )P(B | A j )
j=1
Example 1:
There are 5 boxes of lamps:
3 boxes with the content A1 with 9 good lamps and 1 defective lamp.
2 boxes with the content A2 with 4 good lamps and 2 defective lamps.
At random, select one box and from this box, get one lamp. Find the
probability that the lamp is defective (event B)!
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Bayes formula
" If the event B may occur together with one and only one
of n mutually exclusive events A1, A2, ..., An then:
Example 2:
There are 5 boxes of lamps: 3 boxes with the content A1 with 9 good lamps
and 1 defective lamp. 2 boxes with the content A2 with 4 good lamps and 2
defective lamps. At random, select one box and from this box, get one
lamp. It turns out to be a defective lamp (event B). What is the probability,
after the experiment has been performed, that the lamp was taken from a
box of content A1 ?
+ TUGAS (individu)
" Kerjakan dengan tulisan yang jelas pada kertas folio (F4),
bila diperlukan, tambahkan ilustrasi pada jawaban Anda.
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