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Nov 13, 2017

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Wet Feet Guide

Management Consulting Case Interviews

© All Rights Reserved

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MARKET-SIZING QUESTIONS

2nd edition

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Insider

Guide

Ace Your Case III:

Market-Sizing Questions

2ND edition

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

WetFeet

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Philadelphia, PA 19102

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Website: www.wetfeet.com

2nd Edition

ISBN: 978-1-58207-943-1

Photocopying Is Prohibited

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Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

CHAPTER 1

1 Ace Your Case III

at a Glance

Market-Sizing

Questions

2345

5 The Interview

Unplugged

11 Market-Sizing

Case Rules

15 The Practice

Range

33 Nailing

the Case

Questions Answers

6 The WetFeet Way

of Cracking a

Case Question

contents

Ace Your Case III

at a Glance

1

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

at a glance

Why Case Interviews?

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

To see how resourceful and creative you can be

To test how you perform under pressure

Market-Sizing Cases

Test your ability to use numbers

Often lead off longer cases

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Market-Sizing Questions

Use round numbers

Show your work

Use paper and a calculator

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 4

NAILING THE CASE

CHAPTER 5

2 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 1 THE INTERVIEW Market-Sizing CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 5

AT A GLANCE UNPLUGGED Case Rules THE PRACTICE RANGE NAILING THE CASE

3

WET F EET IN S IDER GUIDE

The Interview

Unplugged

2

Overview........................................... 6

The WetFeet Way of

Cracking a Case Question................. 6

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

more important to note the approach, as well as the

The best way to prepare for a case interview is to interviewers likely responses, which obviously wont

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

practice. And by reading this book right now, youre be included in your answers. As you sharpen those

well on your way to mastering the case-interview pro- skills, keep thinking to yourself, I love these case

cess. questions! Soon youll find yourself talking like a

This guide is all about market-sizing cases, and is consultant.

part of the Ace Your Case series. Ace Your Case and

Ace Your Case II cover case interviews in general,

offering an overview of the process, a guide to The WetFeet Way

of Cracking a Case

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

how to solve just about any case that comes your way.

CHAPTER 2

while Ace Your Case V covers operations problems. If

Question

you want to learn more about market sizing, this is

the guide for you. W hat is the interviewer asking?

Market-sizing questions test your logic and your E verything there?

comfort with numbers. In a short interview for a T hink before you speak

quantitative-consulting position, the market-size F rameworks!

Market-Sizing

question might be the only one youre asked. More E xplain your thinking

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

likely, though, itll be the start of a longer case E valuate your case so far

problemfirst you determine the market size, then T ake action

you develop a strategy, and finally you address some

operational issues. It may be a small part of the total So how exactly does one ace the case? Although

interview, but you cant afford to get flustered at the each case question is different, weve devised an

thought of doing a calculation. Doing so may be approach that, if used correctly, will take you a long

THE PRACTICE RANGE

enough to end your chances of being invited back. way toward giving the consulting interviewer what he

or she wants. Ours is a mnemonic device for acing your

> TIP case. Simply think of the word WetFeet. Clever, huh?

CHAPTER 4

You probably wont use every step when calculating an

between equals than a one-sided Q&A. If you estimate, but knowing these steps will help you deter-

enjoy the conversation, your interviewer will mine what you need to do.

tooand that will go a long way toward your

landing the job.

What is the interviewer asking?

A word about how to use this guide: Try to Listen carefully and take notes if necessary. Make

NAILING THE CASE

solve the questions first, without looking at the sure you know what the interviewer is seeking. Its

answers. Consider having a friend ask the question, particularly important to keep this objective in mind

then evaluate your answer against our recommended as you work your way through the dense detail that

CHAPTER 5

answers. If our good answer differs from yours, may be coming your way. Stick to the question, too.

see whether theres something you can learn from If the interviewer asks for two recommendations, you

our suggestions. But dont panicthere are usually wont impress her if you give sixinstead, shell see

6 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

you as someone who cant follow directions and who is This method ensures that you deliver your most

likely to get too bogged down in minutia to deliver an important insights first before time runs out.

organized report to a client.

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

Evaluate your case

Everything there? As you go, think about your answer. Is it something

Determine whether youve been given the whole that a business might logically do? Are their practical,

picture. If the question is unclear, its probably but unconventional, approaches? Is there another way

supposed to be. Ask your interviewer for clarification. to approach the problem? Dont just ask yourselfask

In particular, if there seems to be a gaping hole, ask your interviewer if youre on the right track.

about it. The interviewer may be testing whether you

THE INTERVIEW

realize there are missing pieces of the puzzle. If you Take action

UNPLUGGED

hear a hint, a suggestion, or additional information, Wrap up your case by briefly summarizing how you

CHAPTER 2

use it. Interviewers know what they are looking for and have approached the problem and noting where you

usually will try to steer you in the right direction. would go if you had more time. The goal of consulting

is almost never just analysis. Usually, a consultant is

Think before you speak looking for good, solid, data-driven recommendations

Any pause will feel like an eternity to you, so your the client can use.

impulse may be to blurt out the first thing that comes

to mind. Dont. Take a moment to think through your Different Strokes

Market-Sizing

ideas and decide how to present them. That moment Different consulting firms prefer different types of

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

wont seem long to your interviewer, and it will give you case questionsand different types of answers. And

the time to make a stronger impression. that makes perfect sense, as some firms concentrate

on strategy, some on operations, and some on finance.

> TIP Large firms with organized campus-interview programs

The interviewer may hold back a key piece of probably have a list of predetermined cases and

information to see if youre savvy enough to interviewers trained on how to use them before they

ask for it. Dont be shysay what you need. show up at the career office. A smaller firm or one

interviewing an experienced candidate may choose

Frameworks! questions on an ad hoc basis.

CHAPTER 4

Identify a framework, or a combination of frameworks, As much as a firm may try to set a tone for everyone

to help you structure your answer. Be sure to tell your to follow, the individual recruiters have their own

interviewer how you plan to proceed. Choosing a personalities, styles, and pet peeves. You can study up

framework isnt the goal of the exercise, but it helps on what you think a Bain interview will be like, then

you structure an answer to the question. Your choice discover your interviewer prefers to do things his way.

of framework wont impress the interviewer, but your Most interviewers will be great, but if you have one NAILING THE CASE

ability to come up with a clear, logical answer will. who is a jerk or who just happens to be having an off

day, keep your cool, do your best, and remember as

Explain your thinking you leave the confines of the interviewing cubicle that

CHAPTER 5

Start with the most important issue first, and tell the the next few months than his. By the way, there is such

interviewer why you think that point is so significant. a thing as the stress interview, where the interviewer is

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

to see how you react. Maintain steely resolve so that

you can pass the interview and then have the pleasure

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

work at a place that treats people that way?

Keep in mind that interviewers usually approach

undergrads differently than they do MBAs or other

advanced-degree candidates. As you might expect,

undergraduate case questions are usually less complex,

less focused on specific business issues, and more

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

candidate to demonstrate resourcefulness, creativity

in thinking about a problem, and ability to stick with

a problem and get to the bottom of it. So if youre an

undergrad, dont pass out when you read through the

frameworks section of this report; your interviewer

wont expect you to have mastered MBA-level concepts.

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

and how to apply them. Thats what business school

is all about. If youre an MBA, start studying and be

prepared for anything!

If your advanced degree is in another field or if you

are interviewing years after school, youll be expected

THE PRACTICE RANGE

you get will be appropriate to your situation. If you are

interviewing for a firms forensic-accounting practice,

CHAPTER 4

you may get questions designed to show how well you

identify logical flaws in market-share data that relate to

your ability to find financial fraud.

NAILING THE CASE

CHAPTER 5

8 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 1 THE INTERVIEW Market-Sizing CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 5

AT A GLANCE UNPLUGGED Case Rules THE PRACTICE RANGE NAILING THE CASE

9

WET F EET IN S IDER GUIDE

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

3

Overview......................................... 12

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

surfer own? How often will she get a new one? Are there

coNsulTaNTs loVe To ask market-sizing ques- other big purchasers besides individual surfers? Is there

aT a GLaNCE

chAPter 1

tions. Not only are they easy to create, discuss, and a market for used boards?

evaluate, they also are highly representative of an Youll also need to make a few basic calculations

important type of consulting work. (number of surfers x number of new boards per year + total

In their simplest form, market-sizing cases require quantity purchased by other types of customers, and so on).

the candidate to determine the size of a particular As you work through these issues, the interviewer will

market (hence the name). In the real world, this get a glimpse of your common sense. (Did you assume

information can be especially helpful when gauging the that everyone in the U.S. is a potential surfer, or did you

THE INTERVIEW

attractiveness of a new market. A market-sizing question try to estimate the population in prime surfing areas like

UNPLUGGED

chAPter 2

Or it may be disguised as a complex query that When Youll get these

requires the respondent to peel away the extraneous Market-sizing questions can pop up in all interviews.

detail to identify the market-sizing issue at the core They are almost certain to make an appearance in

Should Fidelity should come out with a mutual fund undergraduate and advanced-degree interviews.

targeted at high-net-worth individuals? In a more Indeed, both undergraduates and PhDs report receiving

highly developed variation, the interviewer might ask exactly the same market-sizing questions in their

MaRkET-SIzING

a strategy or operations case question that requires the respective interviews. MBAs also are likely to receive

CaSE RULES

chAPter 3

respondent to do some market-sizing to come up with market-sizing questions; however, a common and more

an appropriate recommendation. complex variation typical of an MBA interview involves

Brainteasers are related to market sizing in that they assessing the opportunity for a new product. You might

usually involve some numbers, and you can make a lot be asked whether your pharmaceutical company client

of progress without knowing the trick if you think about should develop and market a drug for male-pattern

the questions logically. It helps most if you had a middle- baldness, for example. Part of the analysis would

THE PRaCTICE RaNGE

school math teacher who liked to use themyou might require you to estimate the market potentialthe

recognize the question and dazzle the interviewer with market sizefor the drug.

a logical approach to the solution that you memorized

chAPter 4

brainteasers to see how candidates handle stress; others

realized that these questions dont offer much insight into

a candidates ability to solve business problems. Dont

spend a lot of time preparing for them, but do stay calm

if you are faced with one.)

NaILING THE CaSE

the scorecArd

Market-sizing questions let the interviewer test your

chAPter 5

sense. If youre asked to size the surfboard market, for

instance, youll need to make basic assumptions: How

12 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

Mastering Your Market-Sizing multiply a few numbers keeps you from freaking out,

Questions then do it. Your interviewer will be more impressed if

Market-sizing questions can intimidate. But once you you are calm, cool, and collected.

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

understand the rules (and practice your technique), you

can come to view these cases as slow pitches right over Market-Sizing Cases and Frameworks

the center of the plate. So, just how many golf balls Market-size cases dont require frameworks the way that

are used annually in the U.S.? You dont knowand other types of business cases do, but there are helpful

neither does your interviewer. In fact, your interviewer ways to break down the problems. For the most part,

doesnt even care what the real number is. He does care, work from big to small: What is the largest market

though, about your ability to use logic, common sense, the population of the U.S., for instance? What are

THE INTERVIEW

and creativity to get to a plausible answer. And he wants subgroups that might need the product? How does this

UNPLUGGED

to make sure you dont turn tail when youve got a few all flow? When you read through the cases, youll get

CHAPTER 2

numbers to run, which brings us to the three rules for a sense for how to apply the process to other types of

market-sizing questions. market-size calculations.

Even if you arent a multivariate calculus stud, you can

impress your interviewer with your number-crunching

abilities if you stick to round numbers. Theyre much

Market-Sizing

easier to add, subtract, multiply, and divide, and since

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

weve already decided that the exact answer doesnt

matter anyway, go ahead and pick something that

you can toss around with ease. The population of

New York? Ten million, give or take. The length of a

standard piece of paper? Round 11 inches up to a foot.

Rule 2: Show Your Work

Case questions are the ultimate show your work

scenarios. In fact, your exact answer matters less than

CHAPTER 4

the path you took to get there. Remember, the market-

sizing question is merely a platform through which

your interviewer can test your analysis, creativity,

and comfort with numbers. Finally, almost all these

questions are simple arithmetic. You probably wont

even have to show off your ninth-grade algebra. NAILING THE CASE

If you feel more comfortable writing everything down

CHAPTER 5

if you use a pencil and paper to keep your thoughts

organized and logical. And if pulling out a calculator to

The Practice

Range

4

Market-Sizing Questions................. 16

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

Market-Sizing Questions

The best way to practice for market-sizing questions is to read and solve examples. Remember to focus on the

process, not the answer. You wont get these exact questions, so dont memorize them. And anyway, the interviewer

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

is testing your logic and poise, not your mastery of trivia. Save that for the local pubs quiz night.

1. Use round numbers.

2. Show your work.

3. Use paper and calculator.

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CASE 1

CHAPTER 2

How many bars of dark chocolate are sold in the U.S. each year?

Is the market growing or shrinking?

Key questions to ask

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

Basic numbers

CHAPTER 4

NAILING THE CASE

CHAPTER 5

16 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

CASE 2

Can you help Purina evaluate whether theres a reasonable

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

market for Penguin Chow?

Key questions to ask

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Market-Sizing

Basic numbers

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

THE PRACTICE RANGE

CHAPTER 4

Track the numbers down

CHAPTER 5

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

CASE 3

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 4

NAILING THE CASE

CHAPTER 5

18 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

CASE 4

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

Key questions to ask

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

THE PRACTICE RANGE

CHAPTER 4

Track the numbers down

CHAPTER 5

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

CASE 5

How many cups does Starbucks use each week in its U.S. operations?

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 4

NAILING THE CASE

CHAPTER 5

20 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

CASE 6

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

Key questions to ask

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

THE PRACTICE RANGE

CHAPTER 4

Track the numbers down

CHAPTER 5

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

CASE 7

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 4

NAILING THE CASE

CHAPTER 5

22 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

CASE 8

How many pairs of jeans are sold in the U.S. each year?

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

Key questions to ask

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

THE PRACTICE RANGE

CHAPTER 4

Track the numbers down

CHAPTER 5

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

CASE 9

How many unique people attend events at the Rose Bowl every year?

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 4

NAILING THE CASE

CHAPTER 5

24 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 1 THE INTERVIEW Market-Sizing CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 5

AT A GLANCE UNPLUGGED Case Rules THE PRACTICE RANGE NAILING THE CASE

CASE 10

Key questions to ask

Basic numbers

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

CASE 11

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 4

NAILING THE CASE

CHAPTER 5

26 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

CASE 12

How bigin dollarsis the market for used shoes in the U.S.?

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

Key questions to ask

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

THE PRACTICE RANGE

CHAPTER 4

Track the numbers down

CHAPTER 5

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

CASE 13

U.S. each year?

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 4

NAILING THE CASE

CHAPTER 5

28 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

CASE 14

encircle the earth at the equator?

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

Key questions to ask

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

THE PRACTICE RANGE

CHAPTER 4

Track the numbers down

CHAPTER 5

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

CASE 15

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Basic numbers

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 4

NAILING THE CASE

CHAPTER 5

30 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 1 THE INTERVIEW Market-Sizing CHAPTER 4 CHAPTER 5

AT A GLANCE UNPLUGGED Case Rules THE PRACTICE RANGE NAILING THE CASE

31

WET F EET IN S IDER GUIDE

Nailing the Case

5

Comparing Your Answers................ 34

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

answers Candidate: Interesting question, and while I personally

Now well walk you through sample answers love dark chocolate, I have no idea how many others

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

to each of the questions posed in The Practice Range. do. Last time I went to the grocery store, there was a

Although we believe our recommended answers are good, decent selection, so it seems there are a lot of us. What

we know there are many others that are equally satisfac- we need to get our arms around is how many there are.

tory, if not better. Remember, the destination is often less

important to your interviewer than the road you take to >> So far, so good. Grounding things based on personal

get there. With that in mind, smooth sailing! observations at retailers is a reasonable starting point.

A quick note on the layout: Each question is followed

THE INTERVIEW

by one or more bad answers (really bad in some cases) and Candidate: First, let me clarify the question a little. By

UNPLUGGED

a good response. The dialogue between the hypothetical bars of dark chocolate do you mean just the high-end

CHAPTER 2

recruiter and candidate appear in normal type; the stuffthe individual large chocolate bars they sell at

WetFeet analysis and commentary appear in italics. Godivasor are you including the stuff that people

give out at Halloween like those little Hershey bars?

Case 1 And how about the truffles in chocolate assortments?

How many bars of dark chocolate are sold in the U.S. Should I assume that were only talking about the 70

each year? Is the market growing or shrinking? percent cocoa bars?

Market-Sizing

>> This is a straightforward market-sizing question, which >> Its generally a good idea to draw some boundaries

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

would be good for undergraduates and advanced- around what youre looking at. It buys you time to

degree candidates. It requires no special technical structure your thoughts and lets you verify that youre

knowledge, and it focuses on a subject that is accessible answering the right question.

by everyone: chocolate.

Interviewer: Well, lets keep it simple and assume

Bad Answers that were talking about only those oversize bars that

THE PRACTICE RANGE

Candidate: Dark chocolate? I cant stand the stuff. are labeled as dark chocolate and further assume that

Based on my own experience, the total number is going its a high-end product that probably isnt packaged

to be close to zero. for Halloween treats. Truffles are a different kind of

CHAPTER 4

>> Close to zero is the score you deserve for this answer. It the bars sold at grocery stores; they might be a big piece

lacks analysis, is flippant, and is self-centered. of the overall market.

Candidate: Dark chocolate? I love the stuff. Based on Candidate: OK, that narrows it down a bit. It appears

my experience, the number is tens of millions. to me that there are a couple of basic questions that

NAILING THE CASE

>> Again the score you deserve for this answer is close to we need to know how many people in the U.S. buy

zero. It also lacks analysis, is flippant and self-centered, the high-end chocolate bars. Then we need to know

CHAPTER 5

and it makes no effort to estimate the market at all. how often this group buys chocolate bars. Finally, we

Why should they hire you if this is the best you can need to know the proportion of dark chocolate to milk

come up with? chocolate among all the high-end bars people buy.

34 W E T F E E T I N S ID ER GUID E

>> The candidate has structured her thought process so gives us a total market of 15 million people who buy

the interviewer can see where shes going. If there are high-end chocolate.

problems with the approach, the interviewer may jump

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

in with a question that could set her on a better path. Interviewer: Thats a nice round number. Do you have

any basis for it?

> TIP

>> The interviewer asks the candidate to defend her rough

Always lay out your thought structure before

diving in so the interviewer has a chance to

estimate.

correct you if youre headed in the wrong

direction. Candidate: Not really. Just a couple of personal

THE INTERVIEW

observations, like the fact that only the bigger grocery

UNPLUGGED

stores have a section of fancy chocolate bars and

CHAPTER 2

Interviewer: That seems like a reasonable way to get chocolate shops are at the nicer malls for the most part.

our arms around this. This is a critical factor in the calculation, so Id want to

verify it by checking out an industry group trade site.

Candidate: OK, lets get an estimate of the number I doubt if theyd put their individual product sales out

of consumers. There are about 300 million people there, but they probably have some information on

in the U.S.how many of them buy the high-end their market.

chocolate? There are a lot of Godivas, Sees, and Fanny

Market-Sizing

Mays in most of the big malls and airports. Then >> The candidate offers a reasonable justification, and

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

youve got all the grocery stores. Based on the number quickly adds how she could verify its accuracy.

of outlets, Id assume a pretty good proportion of the

U.S. buys good chocolate. To break it down a little Candidate: Now the question is how often do these

more, lets assume that a negligible amount of high- people buy chocolate bars? Again, Ive got nothing to

end chocolate is sold in rural areas. I recently read that go by but my own personal experience. I usually buy

more than half of the U.S. lives in cities or suburbs a bar each time I go grocery shopping, or about one

now. So that puts the total number of consumers at per week. But Im sure there are plenty of people who

roughly half of the U.S. population, or 150 million buy more than that, and lots of people who only buy

people. Of course, this assumes that people in rural a chocolate bar occasionally. How to get a handle on

CHAPTER 4

areas dont go to the cities and buy their chocolate or relative proportions? Thats a tough one, but to come

mail order it or something, but lets neglect them for up with an answer thats better than just extrapolating

now. my own experience, lets segment the market into high-

volume buyers (three bars per week), medium-volume

>> The candidate has taken a stab at it, and brought up a buyers (one bar per week), and occasional buyers (one

couple of confounding factors that she could look into bar per month). NAILING THE CASE

if necessary.

>> The candidate acknowledges that consumption of

Candidate: Now, what proportion of the city dwellers chocolate bars has some variation

CHAPTER 5

make a reasonable guess that 10 percent of people Candidate: If we assume that the buyers are evenly

who have access to high-end chocolate buy it. That split among these segments, then weve got 5 million

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

high-volume buyers buying 3 bars per week, or 15 Interviewer: Ive got no idea how many dark chocolate

million bars times roughly 50 weeks per year, or 750 bars are sold in the U.S., but I followed your reasoning,

million bars; 5 million medium-volume buyers buying and I think that the number you arrived at is reasonable

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

1 bar per week, or 250 million bars; and 5 million for throwing out in discussions with your client. Good

people buying 12 bars per year, or 60 million bars. So job!

weve got a total market for high-end chocolate bars of

1.06 billion chocolate bars. Since were using round Case 2

numbers, lets go with 1 billion bars per year. Purina is thinking of entering the penguin-food

arena. Can you help Purina evaluate whether theres a

Interviewer: Thats a lot of chocolate bars! reasonable market for Penguin Chow?

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

>> This is an opportunity to revise your assumptions >> This question is out there. The interviewer is probably

CHAPTER 2

(Similar to Is that your final answer? on some game trying to assess how you handle off-the-wall queries,

shows.) In this case, you have gone through the numbers and whether you can field something thats far outside

and it all seems reasonable, so stick with it. what you learned in school (unless you majored in

zoology).

Candidate: Yes, it does seems like a lot, and of course

Id want to check my math again. But a billion Bad Answers

chocolate bars for 300 million people sounds like its Candidate: Penguins only eat fish, or at least thats what

Market-Sizing

in the right ballpark. Now the final piece of the puzzle all the nature documentaries show, so there must be no

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

is what proportion of that chocolate is dark chocolate. market at all for Penguin Chow. Id say the answer is

Ive read some health claims about dark chocolate zero. Purina should concentrate on something else.

being good for your heartI suspect some folks buy it

for that reason. Ive seen a lot more dark chocolate on >> The candidate has taken a stab and has shown some

the shelves lately, and a lot of it has this health claim limited knowledge of the subject matter. However,

mentioned (very carefully, I might add), so the answer he hasnt really given the matter any thought, and

THE PRACTICE RANGE

to the second part of the question is that I believe the hes provided no basis for judging how he handles the

market is growing. But how to get a handle on what unusual. He needs to at least take a shot at it.

proportion of the high-end chocolate sold is dark? I

CHAPTER 4

would think that shelf space would be a straightforward Candidate: Penguinswhat, are there about 20 of

indicator, and to throw a simple number out there to them in a couple of zoos? Maybe 200 penguins in the

make the math easy, Id say its about one-quarter dark U.S. tops? Thats not enough of a market to make it

chocolate versus other varieties. worth Purinas time and effort.

>> Again, the candidate throws out a reasonable >> This is a better attempt, and the candidate at least tried

NAILING THE CASE

justification for what is really just a wild guess, but to provide some rough numerical justification for his

keeps the numbers simple and the math easy. answer. However, his analysis is superficial, his estimate

is straight conjecture, and hes dodged the question. If the

CHAPTER 5

Candidate: So one-quarter of 1 billion total bars of interviewer asked it, the candidate must take the question

chocolate sold is a total of 250 million high-end dark seriously and make a game attempt to answer it.

chocolate bars sold in the U.S. each year.

36 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

Good Answer of dry food in great big sacks. Its going to have to

Candidate: Well, thats certainly not something Ive provide penguin food as some sort of frozen packaged

given a lot of thought to. I dont think we covered the product or in cans, and it had better think through the

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

penguin market much in schoolmaybe I missed implications of a different market.

those classes. Based on my limited knowledge of

penguins, I understand they mostly eat fish, so I would >> The candidate has taken the opportunity to demonstrate

think the market for Penguin Chow would be limited. that he understands that distribution is an important

part of the picture.

>> The candidate acknowledges that its an off-the-wall

question, but he cant stop here. Interviewer: Well, you may think of Purina as selling

THE INTERVIEW

mainly big bags of dog food, but it turns out that it

UNPLUGGED

Candidate: I know that a big part of consulting actually has a sophisticated pet-food business, and

CHAPTER 2

is getting your arms around markets and trying to a good part of that is selling food in cans. So while

evaluate their size, and at base, I think this question frozen food may give Purina some new distribution

isnt really all that different from trying to figure out challenges, providing food in cans is something that the

how many preteens eat spicy Cheetos, so Ill go ahead company knows a great deal about.

and try to help my client with this new and exciting

market area for Purina products.

OK, like any market, weve got to figure out two > TIP

Market-Sizing

basic questions: How many consumers are there and Whether youre asked about Penguin Chow,

Case Rules

glow-in-the-dark candy, or musical head-

CHAPTER 3

how much do they consume? First, Im assuming that bands, dont let an oddball question throw

the number of pet penguins in the world is negligible, you off. Break it down logically, just as you

so were looking strictly at zoos as the market. Second, would any other case question.

I need a bit more information about penguinscould

they eat fish and supplement it with Penguin Chow, or

is Purina thinking of selling some sort of prepackaged >> The candidate initially must decide whether to accept

fish to feed to penguins? this softball (Purina already knows how to distribute

food in cans) or whether to stick with frozen food as a

>> The candidate first makes a reasonable assumption to new distribution challenge for Purina. But he decides

CHAPTER 4

try to size the market, then asks for some clarifying that neither is directly related to the question hes trying

information from the interviewer. to answer, so he refocuses.

Interviewer: Interesting that you should ask. It turns Candidate: I suppose the company could go either

out that penguins eat more than just fish, but they dont way. I think fish is usually best frozen, and I imagine

eat much vegetation. They mainly eat fish, squid, and zoos would want to provide the freshest food possible NAILING THE CASE

krill. How does that change your evaluation? for their animals so Purina would have to figure out

how to distribute frozen products. But were wandering

Candidate: It doesnt really change things. The market from the question, which is, How large is the market

CHAPTER 5

for penguin food is the same. But it does set up some for Penguin Chow? Weve already established that the

parameters that Purina is going to have to think about. market is penguins in zoos, so the next question is how

I think of the company as mostly being a provider many penguins live in zoos? To figure this out, well

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

need to know how many zoos there are in the world the U.S. population is 300 million, or about 5 percent

and how many penguins are in each zoo. of the worlds total. So we could just scale up U.S.

population to world population and multiply by 20,

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

>> At this point, the candidate has to start throwing some which would be the reciprocal of 5 percent, to get a

numbers around. total of 10,000 zoo penguins. But I think thats an

upper limit; Im going to guess there arent a lot of zoos

Candidate: I would guess that there are probably two in Africa with penguins, and Ive got no idea about

or three cities big enough to have zoos in each state. China and India. So lets just use a penguin to person

Some states arent going to have more than one zooI ratio in the developed world to get started. There are

cant imagine Vermont or Rhode Island has more than a about 900 million people in the U.S., Europe, and

THE INTERVIEW

zoo apiece, but California and Texas probably have five Japan, and Im sure that Europeans and Japanese love

UNPLUGGED

or six each. Of course, not all zoos have penguins. So penguins in their zoos just as much as we do, so lets

CHAPTER 2

lets say for the sake of argument that there is an average say there are roughly 1,500 penguins in the developed

of one zoo in each state that has a penguin exhibit, world zoos. And for the sake of argument, lets assume

or 50 penguin exhibits in the U.S. And lets say that that the rest of the world has a roughly equal number.

each exhibit probably has 10 penguins, so thats 500 Theyve got a lot more people, but I dont think the

penguins in the U.S. incidence of zoos in much of the rest of the world is as

high as it is in the developed world. So that gives us a

total of about 3,000 zoo penguins worldwide.

Market-Sizing

> TIP

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

Even if you dont have a clue what a >> The candidate has used reasonable logic to estimate a

number should be, do your best to explain

your assumptions. You have to start

number that he had absolutely no idea about walking

somewhere, so explain your thinking, into the interview, and he stated his assumptions as he

clearly and completely. walked through the process. He took a wild guess saying

that there are the same number of penguins in the U.S.,

Europe, and Japan as everywhere else in the world, but

THE PRACTICE RANGE

>> The candidate and the interviewer have no idea how the interviewer is not likely to contradict him and its

many penguins there are in zoos. But the candidate reasonable in this context. He also took a short cut

needs to progress logically toward an answer, and hes assuming that the U.S., Europe, and Japan have three

CHAPTER 4

thrown out some reasonable assumptions that are times the population of the U.S. alone. Actually, the

probably close enough. U.S. population is about 300 million, EEC population

is about 340 million, and Japans population is about

Interviewer: That sounds reasonable. I would have 130 million, so his guess of 900 million is high by 130

guessed more, but I wont argue with you, since the million. But using round numbers keeps the math easy,

numbers you threw out are reasonable. But thats only and hes in the ballpark.

NAILING THE CASE

Candidate: So now that we know the number of zoo

Candidate: Thanks, thats rightI am going to use penguins, we need to know how much Penguin Chow

CHAPTER 5

the U.S. zoo penguin population to extrapolate the each one would eat. How much does a penguin eat

worldwide zoo-penguin population. I believe Purina each day? Thats tough to say. I would guess the average

is multinational, so it serves markets worldwide. Now penguin weighs about the same as the average dog

38 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

maybe 25 pounds. Now a dog eats about a pound or a its normal distribution chain. Purina would need to

pound and a half of food each day. But a penguin has make it expensive to make a reasonable profit, and

to keep itself warm, so Id guess it eats more than a dog, there is a natural ceiling to the price it could charge

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

say 2.5 pounds per day. the price of fresh fish and squid. Overall, it seems to me

that the penguin market isnt a great place for Purina to

>> The candidate uses reasonable numbers based on focus its energy.

something were all familiar withdogsand bumps

it up to account for different conditions. Interviewer: Based on your analysis, Id have to agree

with you. I guess theres a reason that Purina doesnt

Candidate: So the total market for Penguin Chow is currently offer Penguin Chow, and thats not likely to

THE INTERVIEW

about 2.5 pounds per day times 3,000 penguins, or change soon.

UNPLUGGED

7,500 pounds of penguin food per day. And I suppose

CHAPTER 2

we should acknowledge that Purina isnt the only seller >> The candidate has done a good job of assigning some

of food that penguins eat. A lot of zoos are probably reasonable parameters to estimate something he has

going to stick with fresh fish and squid, and there may absolutely no idea about. This is the kind of skill that

be competitors in the penguin-food marketI mean consultants are paid for, and hes done a good job of

they are all eating something right now. Furthermore, walking the interviewer through the thought process to

they are probably going to feed their penguins a variety answer the question. Good job!

of foods. In other words, the 2.5 pounds of food each

Market-Sizing

penguin eats per day isnt all going to be Penguin Chow. >> Note: according to an article in the Journal of Marine

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

Ornithology there were 2,157 penguins in American

zoos in 1999, not the 500 our candidate estimated.

> TIP But remember, the actual number isnt important, its

If you get stuck on formulating a reasonable the thought process used to derive the number.

assumption, relate the problem to something

similar and more familiar, to make it more

tangible. Case 3

How many adult diapers are sold each year in Ohio?

>> The candidate takes the analysis a step further by >> This is a slight twist on a standard question.

CHAPTER 4

introducing some complicating factors.

Bad Answers

Candidate: So the total market for Purina Penguin Candidate: Adults wearing diapers? Oh for Gods sake,

Chow is going to be much smaller than 7,500 pounds just shoot them!

per day, maybe one-third or less. So I would estimate

that the total market for Penguin Chow is about 2,500 >> Dont let the door slam you in the diaper on your way NAILING THE CASE

that the Penguin Chow market is a positive market for

Purina products. If Purina does enter the market, there Candidate: Adult diapers? In school, we did a study on

CHAPTER 5

are going to be some significant hurdlesovertaking diapers for kids and the answer was something like 30

fresh fish and squid and whatever else these guys are billion. Lets assume that adults use about half as much

already eating and delivering frozen products through as babies and we get 15 billion per year.

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

>> Already know the answer? Dont blurt it out! The Candidate: Now the population of the U.S. is about

point of this exercise is to see how you solve problems, 300 million, and divided evenly over 50 states, that

not how you retain information. Furthermore, this works out to 6 million people per state. But of course

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

is a superficial analysiswhy half? How many old state populations vary quite a lotCalifornia has 26

people are there relative to babies? This is what your or 28 million, while Wyoming has less than 1 million.

interviewer wants to hear, so delve into it! Offhand, I dont know the population of Ohio. I know

its a big electoral state, and that means a big population

Good Answer

Candidate: Whod have guessed that incontinence >> Goodthe candidate brings in information from

would come up in an interview? Just for the record, outside the problem to inform her estimate.

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

question seriously, this seems like a straightforward Candidate: And I think it has about half the electoral

CHAPTER 2

market-estimation question. And thats going to votes of California, so lets say that Ohios population

involve a straightforward approach. Id guess adults use is half of Californias, or say 15 million to keep the

a lot more than babies, since kids grow out of diapers in numbers easy. The population of Ohio is an easy

about two or three years, whereas adults can use them number to verify, and Id certainly want to look up

for quite a long time. Of course there are a lot fewer some census numbers before going much farther.

incontinent senior citizens than incontinent babies.

Lets see. I think there are two parts to this: First, how

> TIP

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

mation on hand, work in an explanation of

thats reasonable? where youd go to find that information.

subject and laughs it off, then gets down to business. >> The candidate demonstrates her ability to use

She throws out a few observations to organize her independent information to inform her estimate, but

THE PRACTICE RANGE

thoughts, then sets up the framework for how shes going notes where to get better information.

to answer the question and asks for confirmation.

Interviewer: Actually, the population of Ohio is about

CHAPTER 4

good way to answer a straightforward question.

Candidate: OK, well use 11.5 million then. Since its

Candidate: All right then, the first part is to estimate not a nice round number, Im going to have to use a

how many adult diaper users there are in Ohio. To get calculator to check my math.

at that, Im going to figure out the population of Ohio,

>> Using a calculator is fine, and since the interviewer

NAILING THE CASE

threw out a better number, its a good idea to use it

>> The candidate uses a framework to give the interviewer instead of the ballpark estimate.

CHAPTER 5

Candidate: Now, how many of the 11.5 million

Ohioans use adult diapers? Thats a tough one. You

40 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

have your disabled population, people with medical Candidate: No, plenty of folks never have to use

conditions, people in nursing homes. The them. I dont have a good feel for the proportion of old

incontinence products take up a lot of shelf space at folks who are incontinent. Id guess its a substantial

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

drug stores, so there must be a big market. numbersay about one-third. Id want to make a few

calls to nursing homes to get a better handle on that,

>> The candidate identifies various segments of the but assuming one-third of people from 75 to 85 are

population who might use these products, then notes incontinent, that would be 700,000 divided by three

that the market must be sizeable based on her own orcalculates233,000.

observations at retailers.

>> The candidate takes the hint that the interviewer has

THE INTERVIEW

tossed her and revises her estimate, while also pointing

> TIP

UNPLUGGED

out where to verify the number shes using.

CHAPTER 2

A good consultant is constantly observing

and noting whats happening in the world

Candidate: Weve also got to include people who are

around. Dont be afraid to incorporate your

personal observations into your analysis. disabled or have a medical condition that requires them

to use these products. Again, I dont have a good feel for

how much of the population below 75 is incontinent.

Candidate: Lets try to put some rough limits on this. Lets say 1 percent as a rough guess. We could verify this

The biggest population of adult diaper users has got number using labor or health department statistics. But

Market-Sizing

to be people of advanced age. They probably start assuming 1 percent is correct, 1 percent of 11.5 million

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

using them around age 75, though of course some is 115,000.

people never develop incontinence and others will

develop it at a younger age. Now, how to segment the Interviewer: Arent you double counting the 75 to 85

population. Lets say people live to be 85 on average. age group?

So 75 to 85 year olds would becalculates12

percent of the population. But thats assuming an Candidate: Yes, I suppose so, and Im also assuming

equal number of people in each age group. We know all the disabled population uses them, but I think

thats not the casethere are lots more kids under its within the accuracy of this calculation. We could

five than people over 80; the population distribution knock it down a few thousand to account for that, but

CHAPTER 4

looks like a pyramidthe biggest numbers are at adjusting the number wouldnt increase the precision of

the bottom. So for a ballpark estimate, lets say its 6 the calculation, since were just throwing some rough

percent. Again, we could easily verify this with census numbers around. Again, Id want to get a better handle

data. So 6 percent of 11.5 million iscalculates on the numbers, and Ive mentioned some of the

about 700,000 people. sources Id use to check my assumptions.

NAILING THE CASE

products? > TIP

Dont choke if the interviewer challenges any

CHAPTER 5

>> The interviewer has pointed out an important factor rethink and explain yourself and back up a

not all of this age group is incontinent. The candidate few steps if necessary.

should run with it.

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

>> Good. The candidate acknowledges the issue, but Candidate: Now how many do they use? Babies use 10

reinforces the idea that this a back-of-the envelope or 20 diapers per day. Incontinent folks are probably in

number that shes working with, that shed want to base the same ballpark, but at the lower end, seeing as their

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

it on better numbers if she could, and how she could systems are better developed. So lets say 10 per day.

do so. So 10 per day times 250,000 users works out to 2.5

million adult diapers per day in Ohio.

Candidate: So to continue on this track, we have

233,000 incontinent people in the 75 to 85 age Interviewer: Thats a lot more diapers than I want to

bracket, and another 115,000 disabled or with a think about. And a lot of it keys on numbers used per

medical condition. That makes a little shy of 350,000 day. Can you think of a way to verify that number?

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

is to figure out how many of the products they are Candidate: Thats a tough one, but I can think of two

CHAPTER 2

using. And if I could clarify what we are talking about, places. First, the manufacturers of the products must

I understand there are a range of productsare we have a good feel for it. Second, Id phone around to

talking only about diapers? a couple of nursing homes and ask the nurses. And

of course, Id adjust the number if I had a basis for a

>> The candidate clarifies another key assumption. better one.

Interviewer: Lets keep it simple and assume its only >> The candidate throws out a couple of reasonable options

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

has them.

>> This actually makes it more complicated, but the

candidate runs with it. Interviewer: That seems like a solid approach, and

youve come up with a good rationale and a defensible

Candidate: Well, as I said, there is a range of products number. I agree that youre probably somewhere in

and diapers are only a part of the picture. If we go based the neighborhood. And I dont know about you, but

THE PRACTICE RANGE

on shelf space, Id say diapers take up about 75 percent Id like to change to a different topic thats a little less

of the shelf space, so that probably reflects about 75 unpleasant.

percent of the products people buy.

CHAPTER 4

Case 4

>> The candidate comes up with a feasible rationale for How many coffins do they sell each week in Los

whats really just a guess. Angeles?

Candidate: So lets assume that 75 percent of the >> This is a standard market-sizing question, and the

incontinent population uses diapers. Seventy-five approach should be straightforward as well. The

NAILING THE CASE

percent of 350,000 iscalculates262,000. Lets call candidate must come up with some rough numbers,

it 250,000 to keep the math simple. note what factors complicate the calculation, make

some simplifying assumptions, and come up with an

CHAPTER 5

>> Since the interviewer didnt let her run with a round estimate.

number for population, the candidate needs to use a

calculator, but simplifies assumptions wherever she can.

42 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

Bad Answers who get buried elsewhere, I dont see how that figures

Candidate: Not as many as they ought to! I cant stand into the question.

L.A.

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

>> The interviewer keeps it simple and throws the

>> The candidate hasnt been to many interviews. What if candidate a hint.

the interviewer is a native Angeleno?

Candidate: Yes, I suppose youre right. If somebody

Candidate: Id say about 10,000. gets buried out of state, the coffin goes with him, so I

guess if you die in L.A., youre going to buy a coffin in

>> Whered that come from? How did you get there? As a L.A.

THE INTERVIEW

consultant, youre not being paid to dream up numbers;

UNPLUGGED

youre being paid to take a transparent and structured >> The candidate takes the hint.

CHAPTER 2

approach to making an estimate.

Candidate: OK, lets start with the easy part: total

Good Answer population. I think the total population of the L.A.

Candidate: Ive never really thought about it, but I metro area is somewhere around 10 million, and we

suppose it must be a big number because its a big city. could easily check that number. I know its bigger than

Its a bit morbid, but lets seehow can we come up Chicago, which used to be the second largest city, and

with a good estimate? I suppose it would equal the the Chicago metro area has about 8 million.

Market-Sizing

number of Angelenos who die each week and get buried

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

as opposed to cremated. I heard theres a movement >> The candidate throws out a number and verifies it

out there to get buried in burlap bags as some sort of based on his own knowledge.

environmentally conscious alternative, so some others

wouldnt use coffins either. I also understand death rates Candidate: Now the tricky parthow many of them

are not constantfor example, theres supposed to be a die each week? Hmmm. Thats tough to estimate. Let

dip during the holidays because the prospect of seeing me throw out a nice round number of 1 percent and

their loved ones makes people want to hang on a little think through the implications of that. One percent a

longer. Are we talking about an average week? And are week would be more than 50 percent a year. No, thats

we talking about just L.A. proper, or are we talking way off. More like 1 percent a year would be more

CHAPTER 4

about the L.A. metro area? Are we including people reasonable. If we assume a typical block has 40 homes,

who die in L.A. but get buried elsewhere? with 2.5 people per home, then 1 percent per year

would be about one person per block per year. Thats

>> The candidate sets up a tentative road map to how hes not outlandish. Can you give me any hints?

going to work this out, and asks for a few key points of

clarification. Interviewer: Nope. This is about trying to see how you NAILING THE CASE

Interviewer: Lets try to keep it easy, and assume its an

average per week. The client actually wants to know the >> This guy is tough! The candidate has to roll with it.

CHAPTER 5

their production requirements. And lets assume its Candidate: Well, I suppose I would figure it out

L.A. County, not just L.A. proper. Regarding the folks by contacting the coroners office to get an accurate

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

number. So lets go ahead and assume that I did that Interviewer: Sounds like a good plan. Thanks for

and the coroner gave me a number of 1 percent per walking me through your thought process. I think you

year. That would 1 percent of 10 million, or 100,000 came up with a good number at least for this level of

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

people per year, or about 2,000 people per week. Next detail, and Im with you.

we need to know how many of them get buried, as

opposed to cremated. This is another tough one, and >> The candidate has done a nice job of summarizing the

Im sure somebody in L.A. has a better answer for this logical steps and highlighting key assumptions.

number than I do. Id call the local cremation society

to get a feel for this number. I would think that maybe Case 5

a quarter of Angelenos get cremated, but I dont know. How many cups does Starbucks use each week in its

THE INTERVIEW

I know L.A.s got a big Latino population, and they U.S. operations?

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

cremated. But I also know that cremation is considered >> This is a relatively straightforward question that could

a green choice, and Californians in general are be used with an undergraduate or advanced-degree

environmentally conscious. So we have two competing candidate. Note, however, that there are a number of

factors that would affect the number of people who get nuances that only a stronger candidate will recognize.

cremated.

Bad Answers

>> The candidate has introduced two factors that would Candidate: Starbucks is evil. I only go to independent

Market-Sizing

affect the number of people who purchase coffins, and coffee shops, so I refuse to answer that question. Can

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

has identified an accurate source of information, the you give me a question that isnt about a horrible

Cremation Society of Los Angeles. corporate chain?

Candidate: So lets assume again, that I made the call, >> Typically, the candidate doesnt get to choose which

and the number they gave me was 25 percent of all questions he answers. It is never smart to refuse to

deceased in L.A. get cremated. That leaves 75 percent answer a question. It would be better to try and work

THE PRACTICE RANGE

of the 2,000 people per week who die in the L.A. through the question instead. Excuses like the one

metro area, or 1,500 people per week who are going to given by the candidate are lame and suggest to the

purchase coffins. interviewer that the candidate lacks the ability to think

CHAPTER 4

Interviewer: Actually, their families will purchase the ever given a problem that you know intimately.

coffins. The deceased have moved out of the coffin-

purchasing market for good. So you came up with a Candidate: My sister works at Starbucks. I have my

number of 1,500 coffins purchased each week in L.A. cell right here; Ill just give her a call and find out for

metro area, and showed me how you got there. There you.

NAILING THE CASE

>> Its almost always OK to pull out a calculator, but dont

Candidate: Yes, I used a lot of round numbers and get out your phone. Heres the thing about market-

CHAPTER 5

educated guesses, and of course I would want to nail sizing questions: Your interviewer doesnt want an

them down better. exact answer. He wants to see your thought process.

Once you get the job, youll get to do primary research

44 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

instead of making estimatesthough youll still spend a operations each week. So, yes, you can ignore outside

lot of time making informed estimates. operations using Starbucks coffee. I agree that wastage

is probably minimal, but we still need to account for it.

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

Good Answer

Candidate: Interesting question! Youre asking just >> The candidate makes a point of frequently summarizing

about paper cups, right? Because most stores sell his progress with the calculations and the next steps.

reusable cups or holiday mugs and the like. This is a good idea whenever you are focused on a long

or multifaceted calculation. Not only does it ensure

Interviewer: Lets focus on the paper cups only. that the interviewer is still following along, but it also

reminds you of the different steps so that you dont miss

THE INTERVIEW

Candidate: OK, I guess the way that I am going anything. Its time to take a moment to think, then

UNPLUGGED

to approach this is to work out how many drinks get going.

CHAPTER 2

Starbucks sells each week, then Ill back out of an

estimate of how many people bring their own cups. Candidate: OK. Lets focus first of all on how many

drinks Starbucks serves each weekday and then each

>> Structure! Structure! Structure! Remember to take a weekend day, as I would assume that the volume is

moment to think about how you want to structure your different in those two categories. Then Ill throw in

answer before you start. In this example, the candidate a third categorypeople who drink Starbucks every

does a nice job of laying out his proposed approach in a single day. Then, we need to know how many stores

Market-Sizing

concise and simple manner. Starbucks operates and how many drinks each sells in

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

the three different categories. I am going to guess there

Candidate: I have two clarifying question before are somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 Starbucks

we get started. First, Im assuming that were only stores in the U.S. Lets go with 7,500 for now, though

talking about company stores and not places that serve Ill probably have to pull out my calculator to keep

Starbucks coffee in their own cups, right? And second, going. Do you mind?

Im thinking that wastage is negligible. Starbucks runs a

tight operation and that seems like a good assumption Interviewer: No, please do.

to me. Would you agree?

Candidate: Thank you. There are 300 million people

CHAPTER 4

>> When in doubt, ask! Is everything there? It is always a living in the U.S., and if we divide that by 7,500 stores

good idea to ask clarifying questions instead of simply that works out to 40,000 people per restaurant. Ill

making assumptions. If the interviewer doesnt want estimate that 5 percent of those people go to Starbucks

to answer your question, shell communicate that to once during the week, another 5 percent go once

you and you can simply make an assumption (out during the weekend, and 5 percent go every single day.

loud) about your question. If you dont communicate

>> When you are asked to estimate something, its

NAILING THE CASE

interviewer, she may just assume that youve missed a important that you end up with an estimated number.

critical piece of the case. In this case, the candidate now has a number of stores

CHAPTER 5

Interviewer: What I am interested in knowing is volume within each store. Evaluate by asking yourself

how many cups Starbucks needs to support its own whether your answer sounds reasonable, and if not,

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

revisit your assumptions to try and come to a more Candidate: Well, with that 16,038 per store and 7,500

realistic conclusion. stores, the number of cups would be 1,202,850,000

per week.

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

would you do? Interviewer: Thats a lot of cups!

Candidate: Id start by checking the companys Web Candidate: Yes, that does sound high. I may be being

site. They may show these numbers in its financial too aggressive by assuming that 15 percent of the

statements. Or I could try calling the company. population goes to Starbucks at least once a week. If the

market penetration is lower than that, the company still

THE INTERVIEW

Interviewer: OK, but for now, keep doing what you has growth opportunities, so it will keep needing cups.

UNPLUGGED

are doing. How many cups do these people use? If that penetration rate is accurate, I think it points to a

CHAPTER 2

Candidate: All right. Now we can think about the and lower expenses by encouraging customers to buy

number of drinks per store. We have 40,000 potential reusable cups and mugs.

customers per store, but we only care about the

Starbucks drinkers. Five percent go once a week, so

thats 2,000 drinks. Another 5 percent go only on > TIP

weekends, so thats an additional 2,000 drinks. And Making educated guesses is part of what mas-

Market-Sizing

then 5 percent go every single day, so thats 2,000 and guess appropriately, just be sure to tell

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

times 7, or 14,000 drinks. So add those up, and there the interviewer youre doing so.

are 18,000 drinks served per week per store. Now, lets

figure that 10 percent of those drinks go to people with

their own cups, so I want to subtract 1,800, and that >> Its OK to let the interviewer know that you are making

leaves me with 16,200. But then I also have to figure an educated guess. Always try and explain the basis

some waste, and Ill assume 1 percent of the paper- for your guess so the interviewer knows that it is an

THE PRACTICE RANGE

cup usage involves wasted cups. And that would be educated one, and not pulled out of thin air. Here,

162 cups. So then we subtract 162 from 162,000 for the candidate identifies a potential problembut also

16,038, and boy, am I glad I have a calculator! points out a potential opportunity.

CHAPTER 4

>> The candidate identifies a nuancepeople bringing Interviewer: Great job. Now we are going to switch

their own cupsthat might affect the calculation gears and talk about something a little bit different.

instead of just assuming it away. This demonstrates

depth of thought to the interviewer. >> The candidate does a great job with this case. He

applies a structure early on in the question and

NAILING THE CASE

Interviewer: OK, that sounds reasonable. So what sticks to it. He also makes a point of frequently

happens systemwide? summarizing his progress with the case and his

next steps, thus keeping himself aligned with the

CHAPTER 5

>> Rarely will an interviewer have a problem with your interviewer. The candidate also does a good job

assumptions unless they are far off base or are steering the of highlighting the assumptions he is making

conversation in a direction the interviewer doesnt wish to go. and grounding them out loud whenever possible,

46 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

demonstrating that he is comfortable doing this I dont know a lot about pandas, but I think they

even when the material is not familiar to him. eat other foods besides bamboo, and I think most

of them live in China. And I know that they are

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

The candidate explains exactly what he is going to do extremely rare, so there arent an awful lot of them

before he does it, keeping himself and the interviewer around.

aligned. He also isnt afraid to do some math. Taking

notes and using a calculator saves him from getting >> The candidate states up front that this is not an area that

tripped up when the numbers started to get strange. she knows anything about. She brings the interviewer

in on her limited knowledge of pandas, and outlines an

Case 6 extremely simple approach to answering the question.

THE INTERVIEW

How much bamboo does the worlds panda population

UNPLUGGED

eat? Interviewer: Thats about all I know about pandas, too.

CHAPTER 2

That and they are awfully cute.

>> This is a nonstandard brainteaser. There probably

arent a lot of people who have any idea how much >> Goodyoure not dealing with World Wildlife Funds

bamboo the worlds pandas eat. This is a test of your panda expert.

ability to take a strange undefined question in which

you have no expertise, and assign some parameters to Candidate: I suppose we ought to start with how many

come up with an estimate. One key to this question of them there are. Pandas are big animalsI think they

Market-Sizing

is to define some data needs and identify where you are about the size of bears. That means that they need

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

might get that data. a lot of habitat to support them. I think I read that

grizzlies need 200 square miles apiece, and pandas are

Bad Answers probably similar. And I think they only live in China,

Candidate: How much what does the who? and Chinas a big country. And since they subsist mostly

on bamboo, they probably only live in southern China,

>> Wheres the door? where bamboo grows. Im sure that a lot of wildlife

biologists have spent a lot of time trying to estimate

Candidate: Ive got no idea. what the wild panda population is, and I certainly

wouldnt want to second guess them. For the sake of a

CHAPTER 4

>> Neither does your interviewer. Answer the question she number, Ill throw 5,000 out there. Could be high or

asked. could be low, but Id bet Im within a factor of ten.

Candidate: Pandas?! This is way outside what I lot of animals, but then I guess thats why they are

usually think about. Ive never seen a panda, not endangered. NAILING THE CASE

work through this. I guess its a simple product of Candidate: OK, lets assume there are 5,000 of them

how many pandas there are and how much bamboo and we would contact the World Wildlife Fund to

CHAPTER 5

each one eats. And Ill tell you up front that Ive verify the number. WWF uses a panda as their logo,

got no idea of the answers to either question. Let so they ought to know. Next we need to know how

me see if I can make some reasonable assumptions. much bamboo they eat. Thatll be a function of their

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

pandas are small and dont eat as much as big adult Candidate: I havent lived in a house for a while,

pandas. Now I know that a couple zoos have pandas, but I can tell you how many chairs are in the average

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

bamboo a captive panda eats. But lets take a stab at it

for this estimate, and use a call to the national zoo as a >> Again, youre going to have to answer the question that

verification step. Pandas are about the size of bears, but was asked. Remember that its not the accuracy of the

I have a hard time estimating how much bears weigh. final answer, but rather the logic and structure of the

Ive heard grizzlies can weigh a ton, but grizzlies are thought process that got you there.

big, even for bears. So I would hazard a guess that a

THE INTERVIEW

panda weights a half ton, or 1,000 pounds. And how Candidate: Id say about 20.

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

I have no idea. I suppose your average person weighs >> Whered this come from? How did you get there? Telling

175 pounds and he probably eats 2 or 3 pounds of a consultant an answer without explaining how you

food per day, so thats 1 percent or 1.5 percent of his got there is one way to bomb an interview.

body weight. So for a panda thats probably somewhere

around 10 or 15 pounds per day. And how much of Good Answer

that is bamboo? Probably most of it. And bamboo isnt Candidate: Well, Ive never really thought about this,

exactly high protein, so they probably have to eat a lot but lets take a crack at it. Here are a couple of things

Market-Sizing

of it, which suggests that theyd probably have to eat that come to mind. First, there are lots of different

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

a lot more bulk than humans. Call it 25 pounds per types of chairs. Im going to assume that when you

day, and verify that with the national zoo. So5,000 say chairs, you mean all kinds of chairsdining room

pandas eating 25 pounds of bamboo per daythat chairs, desk chairs, living room chairs, patio chairs,

works out to 125,000 pounds of bamboo per day. and so on. Second, there are lots of different types of

housessmall, medium, largeeach with a different

Interviewer: I have no idea what the real number is. number of chairs. Im also going to assume that were

THE PRACTICE RANGE

But I followed your logic and the way you presented it, excluding apartments, condos, and other types of

and it sounds reasonable to me. Your answer of 125,000 residences in the analysis. So, to answer this question,

pounds a day works for this question. I wonder what it Im going to have to take the weighted average of the

CHAPTER 4

would actually be if we did the research you suggested? number of chairs in each house size.

What is the average number of chairs in a house? excellent overview of the problem; this establishes a

lot of credibility with the interviewer. Additionally,

>> This is a deceptively tricky questionthough it centers the candidate has demonstrated an understanding of

NAILING THE CASE

around a topic accessible to everyone, it can get detailed weighted averages, an oft-used analysis in consulting.

quickly. Remember to continue to see the forest for the When possible, try to show the interviewer early that

trees. you have cracked the case by providing an analytic

CHAPTER 5

the scope by making some reasonable and simplifying

assumptions.

48 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

with four more chairs. So this is an average of ten chairs

> TIP in the small house category.

If you have some fancy analytical tricks you The average medium-sized house will probably

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

learned in school to help you solve the case,

by all means, whip em out now!

have an extra bedroom, maybe another bathroom,

and larger dining rooms, living rooms, and outdoor

space. Again, lets assume that the bedroom and

Candidate: First, lets talk about the different types of bathrooms have no chairs, so there is no difference

houses. For simplicity sake, Im going to assume that there. There are probably six chairs at the dining

there are three buckets of housingsmall, medium, room table and likely one additional chair in the

and large. Most of the houses are going to fall into the living room, so thats an additional two indoor chairs.

THE INTERVIEW

middle category, and there are likely more small houses For the sake of argument, lets assume that there are

UNPLUGGED

than large ones. So Im going to say that 50 percent of an extra two outdoor chairs in a medium-sized house.

CHAPTER 2

houses fall into the medium category, 30 percent fall So thats a total of four extra chairs, or 14 chairs.

into the small category, and 20 percent fall into the large

category. Now what I need to do is figure out how many >> The candidate is progressing logically. Remember that

chairs there are in each type of home. Lets start out by the accuracy of the assumptions is not as critical as the

figuring out how many chairs are in a small house, then logical path.

move up progressively to estimate how many chairs are

in the medium-sized and large houses. Candidate: The same analytic framework will apply to

Market-Sizing

large houses. Large houses will have more bedrooms

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

>> Again, the candidate has done a good job of keeping the and bathrooms, and larger living rooms, dining rooms,

interviewer informed of where he is going and making and outdoor space. Lets assume that the same increase

key assumptions along the way. Establishing three in the number of chairs existsthat there are four

buckets of houses is reasonableavoid making the more chairs in these rooms. However, these houses

problem more complicated, particularly since it appears may also have additional rooms, such as a den. Lets

that this case is going to require you to keep track of assume that there are three chairs in this room. This

quite a few numbers. Also, building up the number of means that large houses have seven more chairs than

chairs from small house to large house lets the candidate medium-sized houses, or 21 chairs. Therefore, the

build upon earlier assumptions. weighted average will be:

CHAPTER 4

Candidate: So, small houses probably have two (10 x 0.3)+ (14 x 0.5) + (21 x 0.2) =

bedrooms, two bathrooms, a living room, dining room, 3 + 7 + 4.2 = 14.2 chairs

a kitchen, and probably one other room and small

front and back yards. Of those rooms, the bedrooms >> Make sure that youve written your estimates down as

and bathrooms probably wont have any chairs, so we you go, and write down the equation. Take your time NAILING THE CASE

can forget about those rooms for the time being. Now, figuring out the numbers. The interviewer would much

lets make assumptions for the following rooms: The rather wait while you do the math than have you be

living room will probably have one large chair, the sloppy with the numbers.

CHAPTER 5

the other room might have one desk chair, and lets

assume that the back yard has a small outdoor table

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

Case 8 that by its market share. Im going to try the first way

How many pairs of jeans are sold in the U.S. each year? because I think my estimates will be more accurate.

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

>> This is a straightforward question and there are several >> The candidate has given a preview of what she will

ways of answering it. be doing and also provided two ways of assessing the

problem.

Bad Answers

Candidate: I used to work for a retail company, so I Candidate: Now, lets assumefor the sake of round

have a good sense of how many jeans are sold. numbersthat there are 250 million people in

the U.S. What percentage of the population buys

THE INTERVIEW

> TIP

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Dont jump right to the answer even if you statements for younger people, for instance, are leisure

happen to have detailed knowledge of the

and comfort wear for middle-aged people, and are

subject matter. Remember, this is all about

articulating your thought process. functional for a large set of workersmechanics,

farmers, and so on. Ive even seen babies wearing

jeans! They are also available in a range of prices, so

>> As previously mentioned, the interviewer is not seeking no one is really priced out of the jeans market. Id say,

a specific answer; rather, he or she is looking for how then, that about 80 percent of people wear jeans; this

Market-Sizing

you think and make assumptions. You should use makes the total jeans market 200 million. The next

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

priorand relevantexperience only for making step will be to determine how many pairs of jeans

logical assumptions and testing your final answer. these 200 million people buy.

Candidate: I dont really know anything about the >> What the candidate has done well here is provide

jeans market. some insight into the jeans market and let that insight

drive the assumptions. As a result, the candidate

THE PRACTICE RANGE

>> As a future consultant, you will often work in industries demonstrates some business savvy and intuition around

where you have no experience; this is part of the joy customer behavior and price sensitivity. Also, note that

and painof consulting. An answer like this signals to the use of 80 percent results in a nice round number

CHAPTER 4

the interviewer that you are not comfortable working and that the candidate provides the interviewer with a

in this type of uncertain environment. road map of where she is going next.

Candidate: So the question is how many pairs of jeans jeans-wearer has approximately three pairs of jeans. I

are purchased in the U.S. every year? There are a couple recognize that there will be a large range: Some people

NAILING THE CASE

of ways of answering this question: One way would be will only have one pair, others will have a quite a few,

to build from the ground up by estimating the jeans- based on their needs and what they wear jeans for, but

wearing population and multiplying that number by an average of three sounds about reasonable to me.

CHAPTER 5

the average number of new jeans each person buys each Of course, if I were looking for exact market sizing, I

year. Another way would be to estimate the number of would segment the market much more and see how

jeans a single company makes each year, then multiply many jeans each segment purchases.

50 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

>> Although the candidate is clearly guessing, this is OK as >> Where did this come from? All this shows is negativity.

long as the interviewer is aware of how the candidate

would get more detailed information if she needed to. Good Answer

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

Candidate: Well, Im not really familiar with the Rose

Candidate: The next analysis involves estimating how Bowl. Ive heard of it, but Im not sure exactly what it

often people buy jeans. Again, this is going to depend is and what its used for. Can you give me a little more

on what people are wearing jeans for: Those who wear information?

jeans for style and fashion are likely to replenish more

quickly than someone who wears jeans around the >> Asking questions is perfectly fine, and the interviewer

house only. But again Im going to take a guess and say would rather have you ask a couple of questions than

THE INTERVIEW

that the average jeans last around three years. Therefore, blindly start trying to figure out the question.

UNPLUGGED

people are buying new jeans every three years, and if

CHAPTER 2

they have three pairs of jeans each, it follows that on Interviewer: The Rose Bowl is a large outdoor stadium

average they will be buying one new pair of jeans each in Pasadena, California, that is used for sporting

year. So if the entire population of jeans wearers buys eventsUCLA plays its home football games there,

one pair of jeans each year, there are about 200 million there are a few large soccer matches, and occasionally

new jeans bought each year. the Rose Bowl hosts the Super Bowland concerts. It

holds about 100,000 people.

>> The candidate has done a nice job of summarizing the

Market-Sizing

logical steps and highlighting key assumptions. Candidate: OK, well lets take the two types of events

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

in turn. First, Ill analyze the sporting events. There is

Case 9 only one college football game per week, half of the

How many unique people attend events at the Rose games are away games, and the season is about 12

Bowl every year? games. Im going to assume that all the games are sold

out. This means that there are six home games for a

>> This is an example of a question where you may have total of 600,000 people. Now, a lot of people will go

to ask the interviewer a couple of questions to develop to all the gameslets say 50 percent of the stadium

a good response. Dont be afraid to ask questions, even is filled with repeat visitors. So this means that, for the

when you are given a market-sizing analysis. Note also first game, there are 100,000 different people, and that

CHAPTER 4

the simplifying assumptions that the candidate makes for each of the next five games there are 50,000 new

to avoid getting mired in a lot of messy numbers. people. Therefore there are 350,000 different people

who go to college football games at the Rose Bowl.

Bad Answers

Candidate: I dont know what the Rose Bowl is, so Im >> The candidate has organized the analysis well, discussing

uncomfortable answering the question. the sporting events separately from the concerts. He has NAILING THE CASE

>> Dont show any trepidation about the question itself; repeat visitors that must be factored out of the analysis

you can figure it out! to avoid double counting. Remember: Dont worry

CHAPTER 5

Candidate: I dont like football. football season; you will not get dinged for this!

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

Candidate: Now lets move to the soccer matches. Im >> The candidate has successfully avoided getting too

less comfortable with soccer, but lets give it a shot. Im detailed, which would create headaches in tracking all

going to guess that over the course of the year there are the numbers.

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

about 60,000 people, because the U.S. in general is less Case 10

rabid about soccer than college football. However, soc- How many cats are there in the U.S.?

cer fans themselves are very loyal, so lets say that two-

thirds of the people are the same for each game. This >> This is a straightforward market-sizing question that

means that there are 60,000 for the first game, and would be good for undergraduates and advanced-

20,000 new people in each of the next nine games for a degree candidates. It requires no special technical

THE INTERVIEW

total of 240,000 people (60,000 + 180,000). knowledge, and it focuses on a subject that (fortunately

UNPLUGGED

If the Rose Bowl holds the Super Bowl, it will be or unfortunately) is accessible to everyone: cats.

CHAPTER 2

assume that there is no overlap between the Super Bad Answers

Bowl crowd and the college football or soccer crowd. Candidate: Five million.

There probably is overlap in reality, but it may be small

because the Super Bowl attracts a national crowd. So >> Its never good to just give a specific number answer,

this means another 100,000 people. even if you happen to know the number. Remember, a

cat statistician does not a consultant make. Rather, the

Market-Sizing

>> The candidate has made some logical assumptions, one interviewer is trying to see how you go about figuring

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

of which may be a stretch but which simplifies the out such an answer. After all, throughout your career as

analysis. As long as the candidate acknowledges that a consultant, youll rarely find that you already know a

the assumption is simplistic, the interviewer should needed number, and even if you do, youll still have to

have no problem with it. show the client how you got the information.

Candidate: So now lets move on to the concerts. Im Candidate: Im glad you asked that, because in my

THE PRACTICE RANGE

going to assume that there are about 50 concerts in job at Ralston Purina, I was product manager for Cat

the Rose Bowl every year, roughly one a week. Some Chow, and we assumed that

will sell out, others will not. Lets say that the average

CHAPTER 4

attendance at these concerts is 80,000. So this means >> OK, this sounds plausible. But, see the previous note.

that there are 4 million people that go to concerts at the The interviewer wants to see how you think.

Rose Bowl. Unlike sporting events, youre probably not

going to get a lot of repeat visitors, so lets say that there Candidate: Too many.

is no overlap with college football, soccer, the Super

Bowl, or other concerts. >> Oops! We understand that there are many closet cat

NAILING THE CASE

Therefore, we have 4 million from concerts, lovers in the consulting ranks, and, yes, even a few cat

350,000 for college football, 240,000 for soccer, and owners. Perhaps even your interviewer.

100,000 when the Super Bowl is in town. So Id guess

CHAPTER 5

that about 4,690,000 different people per year visit the Candidate: What do cats have to do with consulting?

Rose Bowl.

52 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

>> Good question, bad answer. assumptions along the way, which makes it clear how

she is coming up with her answer. Her assumptions also

Good Answer seem relatively reasonable, which might indicate a good

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

Candidate: So how many cats are there? Well, I think level of common sense.

Ill start by trying to figure out the number of people

in the U.S. who have cats. Lets assume that the

population of the U.S. is 300 million. From here, we > TIP

could try to figure out how many people in the U.S. Start from big to small and work your way

down to greater detail.

have cats, but then we might be double counting the

same cats. Its probably better to convert the population

THE INTERVIEW

to households, then make assumptions about how Candidate: So how many cats are there in the U.S.?

UNPLUGGED

many households have cats. So, in the spirit of round Well, there are 5 million households with one cat each;

CHAPTER 2

numbers, lets assume that every household has three thats 5 million cats. Plus 5 million households with

people, so in the U.S. there are approximately 100 two cats each; thats 10 million cats. So 15 million cats

million households. live in American households. But what about strays?

Maybe there are half a million of those? So lets call it

>> The candidate has started by choosing a few good round 15.5 million cats.

numbers with which to work. This will make the

calculations much easier as she progresses. In addition, >> The round numbers came in handy. Although it would

Market-Sizing

she has explained her thinking about the market have been OK for the candidate to write down her

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

size. Not only does this show the interviewer how she numbers on a piece of paper, the problem and her

is thinking about the problem, but it gives him the round numbers let her get a ballpark estimate in her

opportunity to step in and provide assistance should head. Also, at the end, she acknowledges and includes

she veer off track. Finally, the candidate has offered an important additional twist: strays.

a simple but reasonable insightits better to think

about cat owners as households rather than individuals Case 11

to avoid double counting. How much paint does it take to paint United

Airlines fleet?

Candidate: Now how many of those households

CHAPTER 4

have cats? Well, probably one in five have pets of >> This question might be used for undergrads, MBAs,

some kindso 20 million households have pets. Of or non-MBAs. Its a straightforward market-sizing

those, maybe half have cats, so 10 million American question, but it will require a little bit of arithmetic

households are cat-inhabited. Does that mean 10 and geometryas well as a few simplifying assumptions

million cats? Well, close. Some percentage of these that make it tricky enough to trip up some MBAs.

households are probably havens for multiple cats: Say

Bad Answers

NAILING THE CASE

one catfor the sake of argument, lets say they have Candidate: Arent they bankrupt? Theyre probably not

two cats each. spending money on paint these days.

CHAPTER 5

>> The candidate is doing a good job of moving from big >> Funny, but not ha ha funny.

picture down to the small. She is also announcing her

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

Candidate: 135 million gallons. sound particularly outlandish. Also, its nice that

the candidate at least acknowledges he is aware that

>> Huh? Whered that come from? The interviewer wants planes undergoing maintenance would add to the

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

you may have heard that there are no wrong answers in

consulting cases, this is a wrong answer. The one thing that would have improved this answer

is a framework. For example, the candidate might

Candidate: I hate airplanes. Flying gives me hives. have said, To calculate how much paint it will take,

In fact just talking about flying makes me nauseated. Im going to start by estimating the number of planes

Could you ask me something else? in the fleet, figure out how much it will take to paint

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

>> Bad answer. Bad attitude. You hate flying, and you Remember, frameworks dont need to be glamorous

CHAPTER 2

want to be a consultant? Ding! and complicated; they sometimes can simply be a road

map of where youre going with the questions.

Good Answer

Candidate: How much paint? Lets start by trying Candidate: Next we need to figure out how much

to figure out how many planes are in Uniteds fleet. paint it would take to give one plane a new coat of

United probably flies to a couple hundred cities in the paint. This requires a bit of geometry and a whole

U.S. and maybe 50 more internationally, so 250 cities. bunch of logical assumptions. First, lets assume that

Market-Sizing

Some cities are served by two flights per day and others were not going to paint the wings or the tail, just the

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

by 20 flights per day, so lets assume on average, five bodies of the birds. Next, lets take an average size

flights leave each city United serves each daythats planesay, a 737figure out its dimensions, and

1,250 flights. Some of those flights use the same plane, use it as a proxy for the whole fleet. So, I guess a 737

so lets assume 1,000 planes are required to service all of is about 100 feet long and 15 feet wide. The outside

Uniteds cities. And in the interest of round numbers, area of this planethe part thats getting the paint

lets assume that 1,000 includes the planes that might would be (and this is where the geometry comes in) the

THE PRACTICE RANGE

be idle for maintenance or other reasons. circumference of a circle ( x 15 feet) x 100 feet of

length. So, the outside area of the plane is roughly 45 x

100, or 4,500 square feet. So how much paint?

> TIP

CHAPTER 4

assumptions.

>> The applicant makes a nice simplifying assumption

herehe totally drops the wings from the paint

job. Thats fine. The algebra part is a little tricky.

>> Yikes! There are enough numbers and assumptions Even if his answer is totally wrongwhich it

flying around here to warrant the use of a piece of likely isthe understanding of how to calculate

NAILING THE CASE

paper. The candidate is making some whopping the surface area clearly shows that this dude aint

generalizations here, some of which are certainly afraid of no numbers. Dont panic if you didnt

inaccurate, but it doesnt really matter. If it took you remember the formula for a circumference ( x

CHAPTER 5

a bit longer to get a fleet size estimate, dont worry. diameter); you may lose points, but its not a deal

He has stated his assumptions and given general breaker.

reasons for choosing them. None of the assumptions

54 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

Candidate: Next lets assume that it takes one gallon would be to do it from a channel perspectivemeaning

of paint to paint a 10-foot-by-10-foot room (four how many shoes are available in second-hand shops,

walls and a ceiling). So a gallon of paint covers about online, garage sales, and so on. Another way to estimate

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

500 square feet of surface. Therefore, it would take the market would be to determine pure supply

about 9 gallons to paint the plane once, 18 gallons to meaning how many people sell their used shoes,

give it 2 coats. To paint the whole fleet, then, would multiply by an average price per pair, and assume that

take about 18,000 gallons of paint. demand equals supply. The latter seems more intuitive

to me, so Im going to go down that road.

>> The job seeker makes a clever transition here to figure

out exactly how much paint it would take per plane. >> Excellent start. The candidate has laid out two options,

THE INTERVIEW

By equating the paint required to cover one room with demonstrated some intuition about the market by

UNPLUGGED

paint required to cover a similar surface area on a articulating which channels used shoes might be sold

CHAPTER 2

plane, the candidate shows that he is resourceful and through, and proposed a method for estimating the

able to think creatively. Nice job! market size.

How bigin dollarsis the market for used shoes shoes? And, more important, what type of used shoes

in the U.S.? are sold? The shoes that I have seen at second-hand

stores tend to be nicer, more expensive shoes that have

Market-Sizing

>> This is a straightforward market-sizing question, been worn only a few times. I think Ive seen some signs

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

which would be appropriate for undergraduates and that say Gently Worn, which implies that there is not

advanced-degree candidates. a secondary market for shoes that have been ungently

worn. The value equation also makes sense from the

Bad Answer buyers perspective: I can get great value from a pair of

Candidate: Used shoesgross! Who would wear $200 shoes that has been worn only a few times and

those, and what does that have to do with being a now cost $50. The value is not there for me if I buy a

consultant? In any case, I would guess that the market pair of $50 shoes that are now $15, because I probably

is negligible. I doubt used shoes are a good that can be would want to spend the extra $35 and get that pair

exchanged for dollars. brand new. How am I doing so far?

CHAPTER 4

>> Sartorial snobbery is not high on the list of sought-after >> Checking in with the interviewer is not a bad tactic

traits for consultants. Besides, its not appropriate to during a market-sizing case. If youre off track, the

base an entire answer on a personal opinion. interviewer will be forced to tell you. Plus, it gives you

a little time to breathe.

Good Answer NAILING THE CASE

Candidate: Wow. Havent really thought about that Interviewer: So far, so good. The used shoe market

market before. I tend to throw away my shoes after primarily consists of gently worn, dressier shoes that

I wear them out. But Ive seen shoes in second-hand tend to be more fashion-focused.

CHAPTER 5

eBay, so there must be a demand. Candidate: Good. So lets say that that is the market

So how best to estimate the market? One option that Im defining: For ease and simplicity, the market

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

for second-hand shoes consists of these gently worn, you need in consulting is the ability to pull up and

dressier shoes. I recognize that this may not be ask yourself whether the numbers make sense.

completely accurate, but I am confident that this

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

represents the lions share of the market. Candidate: Next I need to determine how many shoes

are purchased each year first hand. The consumers who

>> Solid, simplifying assumptions. buy these shoes at retail are probably heavy consumers

of shoesIm not talking about Sarah Jessica Parkers

Interviewer: Given what youve said so far, how big character on Sex and the City, but someone who buys a

is the market relative to the overall size of the shoe new pair of shoes every month or two. So lets say that

market? thats about 10 pairs of shoes each year per consumer,

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

for two reasons: Were dealing with a small segment >> Notice that the candidate is using nice round numbers.

of the market (dressy, fashion-focused shoes), and Why makes things harder than they have to be?

my guess is that most of the people who buy these

shoes new arent selling them to second-hand stores or Candidate: The next step is going to be to figure out

putting them up on eBay. what percentage of this 100 million is sold to second-

hand stores. This is going to be determined by two

>> Well done and succinctly stated. related factors: (1) how many people are willing to sell

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

Interviewer: I agree. So how are you going to estimate to them that will sell their shoes. I think this percentage

market size? is going to be low: It just doesnt seem likely to me that

most of the people who are buying expensive shoes are

>> The interviewer wants numbers. going to take the time to sell them again. So Im going

to guess that roughly 5 percent of these consumers

resell their shoes. This makes about 5 million pairs of

> TIP

THE PRACTICE RANGE

Evaluate your work as you go along and make

Finally, we need to convert this volume into dollars. As

adjustments as necessary.

weve noted, these are expensive shoes that are going to be

CHAPTER 4

Candidate: OK. If there are 300 million people in the hand pair, Id imagine, would be about $150, and theyre

U.S., lets say that 5 percent of them buy these dressy, probably going to be resold for less than half of that, so

fashion-focused shoes that could be resold. Thats 15 lets say $50. Five million pairs of shoes multiplied by $50

million people, which actually sounds high now that per pair gives you a $250 million market.

I say it out loud. So to make the numbers work, lets

>> It doesnt matter that this number is likely wildly off

NAILING THE CASE

around 10 million. the actual market size. The candidate has done an

excellent job of making assumptions, sticking to simple

CHAPTER 5

>> Notice how the candidate evaluated his work and math, and applying some reasoned business judgment

lowered the estimates midstream. This will always score throughout the course of answering the question. Well

points with the interviewer, because one of the key skills done!

56 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

Case 13 there isnt enough specificity to her answer. While you

What is the total number of automobile tires sold in dont need to arrive at an exact number in your final

the U.S. each year? answer, you do need to provide a decent estimate based

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

on information you have at hand or can deduce from

>> This is a straightforward market-sizing question, other information you know.

appropriate for undergraduates and advanced-degree

candidates. Candidate: All right, this ones easy! My brother is an

industry analyst for cars at Goldman and he told me

Bad Answers there are 15 million cars sold each year, so my answer is

Candidate: Id say about 1 million, give or take. 60 million. Next question.

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

>> The purpose of this kind of case question is not to hear >> Never say that a question youve been asked is easy.

CHAPTER 2

your final answer, but instead to give your interviewer If it were easy, it wouldnt be asked of you in a case

an opportunity to hear how you think about problems interview. This answer also implies that the candidate

with uncertain or unclear information. This answer believes one data point or piece of information is all

neither demonstrates the candidates thinking skills thats required to answer a relatedbut not perfectly

the set of assumptions and analysis that he did to arrive correlatedquestion. You dont ever want to give the

at his numbernor gives the interviewer anywhere impression that you respond rashly or without measured

to go in terms of follow-up to assess the candidates consideration to a query; this implies immaturity and

Market-Sizing

approach to problem solving. In general, never give thoughtlessness, both of which would be very off-

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

the answer to a market-sizing question right out of the putting to an interviewer seeking humble, intelligent,

gate. A better strategy is to take a moment or two to and thoughtful candidates for a role that will often

think about what the interviewer is really asking you. demand maturity and nuanced problem solving.

In this case, the interviewer is really asking, Let me see

how you would think through developing an estimate Good Answer

for the number of automobile tires sold each year in the Candidate: Thats an interesting question, considering

U.S. by telling me about the process and assumptions the various sales channels and the different sources

youd use to arrive at your estimate. of demand for auto tires in the U.S. Let me start by

applying a bottom up approach towards estimating

CHAPTER 4

the total demand for tires.

> TIP

Take a moment to think about what is really >> Good start. The candidate has demonstrated interest

being asked before plunging into an answer.

in the question and communicated a road map

for how he will begin to think out loud about the

Candidate: Well, its just four times the number of cars components of information required to develop a NAILING THE CASE

sold in the U.S., plus maybe a few more. response. Furthermore, the candidate has shown an

understanding of both business operations (buzzwords

>> Although this offers a small amount of insight into the are generally ill advised, but in this case referring to

CHAPTER 5

basic assumptions and thinking that the candidate sales channels gives the interviewer a sense that the

would use to structure her response, it is not nearly deep candidate has a basic understanding of operations) and

or well-thought-out enough to satisfy an interviewer economics (by choosing the demand side of the total

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

market to pursue the market-size estimate, rather than 225 million people. I will further assume that about

the supply side, which is likely to be more challenging three-quarters of those who are of legal driving age

in making good assumptions given the relatively arcane actually own a car; this is based on personal experience

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

nature of tire manufacturing). with friends and family members in both rural and

urban settings. That leaves about 160 million people

Candidate: To begin, I will draw some parameters in the U.S. who own cars today. Now Ill assume that

around the definition of the automobile-tire market so people replace their cars on average of once every 10

that I can then define the sources of demand for tires. yearsjust to keep it simple without knowing the

In this instance, Ill assume that our market concerns exact numbers. That would give an annual estimated

rubber tires for passenger cars and light trucks only. number of about 16 million new cars sold, resulting in

THE INTERVIEW

Therefore, I will exclude commercial vehicles, tractors, 64 million new tires sold for those new cars and trucks

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

define the market more broadly? >> The candidate has used a combination of personal

knowledge about cars and some round-number

>> Well done in defining the nature and parameters of the estimates using population and demographics to whittle

problem before diving in. This demonstrates patience down the new cars element of this market-sizing

and a desire for precision in defining ambiguous problem to a manageable and reasonable number.

problems before thinking about potential solutions. Although there may be some inaccurate assumptions in

Market-Sizing

These are valued skills for consultants and general the logic chain the candidate presents here, by speaking

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

management strategists, who are hired as much for his way through the chain with the interviewer,

their maturity in managing complex problems as they the candidate shows his ability to extrapolate in

are for their ability in solving them. Furthermore, a reasonable manner using known information to

the candidate demonstrates comfort, ease, and most arrive at an estimate when little information was

important, respect for his interviewer by asking a initially available. Using personal experience, like that

question that engages the interviewer and lets him help involving how many friends and family own cars, is

THE PRACTICE RANGE

the candidate define the problem more specifically. OK so long as the candidate doesnt take it too far

which he hasnt. Furthermore, the candidate has driven

Interviewer: Yes, thats fine. For the purposes of your to a reasonable component of the estimate without

CHAPTER 4

estimate, just focus on cars and trucks like pickups and taking forever to do soenough time to think about

SUVs. the logic chain rationally and completely, but not too

much time to be burdensome and unnecessary for this

Candidate: OK, sounds good. To start, I believe that estimation exercise.

one source of demand for automobile tires centers on

new cars and trucks themselves. Although I dont know Candidate: Now that Ive estimated the number of

NAILING THE CASE

offhand what the total number of passenger cars sold tires demanded for new cars and trucks, Ill move on

each year is, Ill develop a rough estimate that I can to estimating the number demanded for used cars

use to estimate the tire demand for this channel and and trucks currently on the road. I just came up with

CHAPTER 5

then move on. I know that there are about 300 million an estimate of 160 million people who own cars. For

people in the U.S. and that about three-quarters of the sake of consistency, Ill use this same figure for the

them are above the driving age; this amounts to about estimated number of used cars on the road.

58 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

and multiply seven-digit numbers in your head. You

> TIP

are being hired to think creatively and logically with

Keeping track of your assumptions is crucial.

uncertain information at hand. Therefore, using round

AT A GLANCE

You may need to return to them later.

CHAPTER 1

numbers will help you focus on whats important in

a market-sizing interview: your thinking, not your

>> Good job. Realizing that another component of the math. That said, there is no shame in pulling out a

estimate relies on a piece of information that had pencil and paper if your case question starts to involve

previously been estimated, the candidate acknowledges so many numbers or assumptions for a particular

that he has thought this out and takes a consistent estimate that you need to write a few down to keep your

number for the next demand estimate. In doing so, thinking straight. Interviewers do not deduct points

THE INTERVIEW

the candidate is being clear on his progress toward an for candidates who assist their thinking by writing

UNPLUGGED

answer and has demonstrated the ability to return to unless of course all you do is write and you fail to share

CHAPTER 2

prior thinking to reassess and reuse relevant data when your progress and thinking at every step with your

appropriate. interviewer. Communication skills are as much a part

of the market-sizing interview as are the assumptions

Candidate: Now I need to estimate the average number and answers you deliver.

of years it takes for a driver to wear the tires out on his

or her car. I believe I remember from commercials that Candidate: So, we have what I believe are the two

tires are rated with an average of 60,000-to-80,000- major sources of demand for new auto tires estimated.

Market-Sizing

mile warranties. If we assume that an average driver These add up to 224 million new tires per year.

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

covers about 15,000 miles per year that means each

car needs its tires replaced about once every four years. Interviewer: Have you thought of any other potential

This means about 40 million cars require new tires to sources of demand for new tires? I can think of a few

replace old worn-out ones each yearapproximately myself. Can you come up with a few more?

160 million additional new tires for used cars.

>> The interviewer is trying to put the candidate on the

ropes. Her question suggests that the interviewer has a

> TIP particular answer or idea that she wants the candidate

Communication skills are as much a part of to figure out. Dont get flustered if the interviewer

CHAPTER 4

the market-sizing interview as the assump-

tions and answers you deliver. takes this tactic at the midpoint in a case interview

you believe has been going well. Sometimes its simply

a way to assess how a candidate will react under stress.

>> The candidate is doing well with one of the rules of Take a moment, then calmly proceed to develop a more

market-sizing questions: using nice round numbers detailed and refined answer. Your interviewer will

that are easy to divide and multiply into other let you know when you are approaching a sufficient NAILING THE CASE

round numbers. This not only will ease and speed estimate, just as she will let you know that a longer and

up his estimation efforts, it will let him focus on more detailed estimate is expected.

the assumptions he is makingand communicating

CHAPTER 5

those assumptions as he works his way through the Candidate: One additional source of demand I havent

answerrather than on the actual mathematics. You addressed yet is flat tires and damaged single tires, both

are not being hired for your ability to do cube roots of which need to be replaced on a one-off basis. Would

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

add to the estimate Ive developed so far? How many sheets of paper would it take to

completely encircle the earth at the equator?

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

able to think about special circumstances, which would >> This isnt a brainteaser. Its actually a market-sizing

add to the market sizing. Although these lesser-order question that is perhaps deceptively simplebe

sources of demand or supply in market-sizing questions forewarned that some wrinkles may emerge. This

sometimes do not add materially to the estimated question would be appropriate for undergrads and

number, its useful to acknowledge that you consider advanced-degree candidates.

them and ask the interviewer if shed like you to

THE INTERVIEW

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Interviewer: Thats all right. I believe that youve case interviews always so random? Im trying to get a

covered the two largest sources of demand for new consulting job. I didnt go to a top school to do silly

auto tires each year, so I think we can settle on 224 estimates about the size of the earth.

million as your estimated annual sales number. I trust

you could get a more refined estimate by adding more, >> Its never smart to insult the interviewer or the process.

smaller sources of new tire demand if we kept pursuing The case interview process is what it is and youre not

it. Were close enough with what youve given me thus going to change it. Plus, though no system is perfect,

Market-Sizing

far, so lets move on. Well done. the case interview has proven to be a good predictor of

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

>> By simply acknowledging the candidates ability to gymnastics of doing these problems, you probably wont

go deeper, without actually asking him to do the enjoy consulting.

additional estimating and thinking required, the

interviewer demonstrates that she was indeed simply Candidate: I have no idea. I dont know anything

trying to gauge what the candidates reaction would about the size of the earth. I was an English major. I

THE PRACTICE RANGE

be to a little pressure or stress in the midst of problem thought these would be business cases.

solving.

>> While not as bad as opening by insulting the process,

CHAPTER 4

While a little unsettling to a candidate whose confidence giving up or punting is clearly not the way to go

may be growing as he moves smoothly through a case, either. You almost certainly will get a question whose

this is by no means out of the ordinary. The candidate topic is unfamiliar to you. Thats part of the game.

did a great job addressing the challengeand the Buck up, use any related knowledge you do have, create

interviewer acknowledged this by concluding the case a structure, and start making some clear assumptions.

in order to use the remaining time in the interview

Good Answer

NAILING THE CASE

the candidate has done well and has satisfied the Candidate: Well, thats certainly an interesting

interviewers desire to witness and understand the question. I must admit, I dont know much at all about

CHAPTER 5

candidates logical thinking skills. Well done. the size of the earth. Nevertheless, Ill give it my best

shot and try to use what I do know, and Ill talk you

through my thinking.

60 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

> TIP between them is roughly 3,000 miles. Im going to

Show enthusiasm for answering any case

assume this is right if thats OK with you.

AT A GLANCE

question put before you. Demonstrate that

CHAPTER 1

you have the high energy essential to succeed >> Solid start. Anchor in something you know and go from

once youre hired.

there. Your interviewer will tell you if she has a problem

with your assumption. Otherwise, forge ahead.

>> Good start. The candidate admits to a hole in his

knowledge, so the interviewer might be willing to Candidate: Id say there are a few ways to come at this.

cut him some slack initially. But the candidate also If I know that the U.S. is about 3,000 miles across and

indicates his willingness to attack the problem and I then picture the handful of globes Ive seen in libraries

THE INTERVIEW

bring to bear what he does know. This is an important and such, it seems to me that you could fit about ten

UNPLUGGED

trait that interviewers are looking for. Plus, the USAs around the center of the earth. That would imply

CHAPTER 2

candidate is most likely a bit nervous since hes not 30,000 miles. Ill just assume a mile is around 5,000

comfortable with the topic. A bit of initial reflection feet and therefore that implies 150 million feet. Given

(remember to speak slowly and clearly) can calm you my one-foot assumption for the length of the paper,

down as well as give you time to think! this equates to 150 million sheets of paper. I know

theres some rounding there, but Ive at least rounded

Candidate: Well, lets start with the paper, since I do up on the paper size and down on the mile size.

know a thing or two about that. You know, it strikes me

Market-Sizing

that the easiest way to tackle the situation would be to >> Excellent round one. Nice round numbers, solid

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

consider the paper lengthwise. Its common knowledge assumptions, awareness of the assumptions, and a

that a standard sheet of paper is 8.5 inches by 11 decent first answer. This would almost be good enough,

inches. Since 11 inches is pretty close to one foot, Ill but the candidate is a star, so he isnt done.

just consider a sheet of paper to be 1 foot long.

Candidate: But I want to double check this estimation

Interviewer: Thats clever. I must admit that I was if thats OK? The 30,000-mile figure feels about right,

originally thinking youd consider the thickness of the but lets look at it another way. Im pretty comfortable

sheet of paper, since thats obviously more complicated. with the 3,000 miles being the distance spanning the

But I like your style. You made a solid assumption and U.S. And I know that it takes about five hours to fly

CHAPTER 4

chose a path of less resistance. However, I reserve the right from New York to Los Angeles. That feels about right,

to ask you for a different version later in the interview. because I seem to recall reading that 747s fly at about

600 miles per hour. So let me use those numbers to gut

>> Score one for the candidate. Hes made a great check my figures. I think its about eight hours from

assumption. Remember: round numbers, Los Angeles to Tokyo, so lets call that 5,000 miles. So

straightforward assumptions. Dont make things now Im at 8,000 miles from New York to Tokyo. NAILING THE CASE

>> This is a good approach: The candidate is using what he

Candidate: OK, now for the hard partthe stuff I knows. When youve got a lot of data floating around,

CHAPTER 5

dont know as well. Lets see. Ill start with something youve really got to make an effort to keep it all straight.

I do know. Ive taken a bunch of trips from New York Dont be afraid to write things down.

to Los Angeles, and Im pretty sure that the distance

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

Candidate: Next Ill go from Tokyo across Russia. I have sheets, and Id say its about 3 inches thick. So that

no idea what that flying time is, but I know its long. tells me there are 2,000 sheets of paper in a foot if

I know Russia is hugethe worlds biggest country. I you consider the thickness of the paper. Therefore,

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

think it has something like ten time zones. So I bet its if we take my rough 130-million feet estimate and

about three times bigger than the U.S. Therefore, Im multiply that by 2,000, we get 260 billion sheets of

going to say its 9,000 miles across. Now Im at 17,000 paper at the equator. Let me check my zerosYep,

miles from New York to the Ural Mountains. thats my estimate.

Ive never flown across Europe, but folks are

always saying the European Union is similar in size >> Well done! The candidate has demonstrated a facility

and population to the U.S., so why dont I say its the with numbers, a stick-to-itiveness, enthusiasm,

THE INTERVIEW

same 3,000 miles across? I think thats high, but its creativity, and an ability to apply past learning to

UNPLUGGED

close enough. That puts me at 20,000 miles so far. Ive current problems. The candidate has responded to

CHAPTER 2

flown from London to New York and it takes about interviewer prompts and come up with reasonable

five hours. So, lets say that distance is 3,000 miles, the answers that hes tested. Its certainly likely that

same as it is for New York to Los Angeles. That puts somebody with no idea of the circumference of the

me at 23,000 miles total. earth would also have little knowledge of the distances

Of course, Ive been flying up in the northern from various cities. No matter. The point is that there

hemisphere for the most partthe distance is greater are many ways to skin a cat. One quick point: Even

at the equator. Ill tack on another couple thousand in round-number examples like this one, its easy to

Market-Sizing

miles and call it an even 25,000. Thats within get lost in the commas and zeros. Dont be afraid to

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

shouting distance of my original 30,000, so Im feeling use pen and paper to keep things straight.

more comfortable. In this case, Id multiply 25,000 by

5,000 to get 125 million pages of paper. Therefore, if Case 15

I wanted to take a final step, I could average the two How many pay phones are there in Manhattan?

estimates and come out with somewhere between 130

million and 140 million sheets of paper. >> This is a straightforward market-sizing question,

THE PRACTICE RANGE

Interviewer: Thats pretty impressive for someone advanced-degree candidates.

who didnt know anything about the size of the earth.

CHAPTER 4

Just be glad I didnt ask you about the distance to Bad Answers

the sun (its 93 million miles, by the way). I warned Candidate: No one uses phone booths anymore.

you at the beginning, though, that I might ask for Everyone has a cell. I was watching Superman with my

a different version, so now youll have to humor nephew last monthoh, he is so cuteand he wanted

me: Lets quickly suppose you have to consider the to know what that weird little box was that the people

thickness of the paper, not the length or the width. stood in while using the phone.

NAILING THE CASE

Candidate: OK, that should be straightforward >> Not a smart angle. Despite showing knowledge of pop

enough. Papers pretty thintoo thin for me to culture, your interviewer will not be amused.

CHAPTER 5

do have some experience loading laser printers (dont Candidate: I saw that annoying Verizon guy in The

we all!). I know one of those packs of paper has 500 New York Times yesterday. The article he was in stated

62 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

that there are 6,360 payphones in Manhattan. I have a the city, which should help us immeasurably. I know

photographic memory, so theres your answer. it doesnt cover the entire city and I know there are

some non-numbered avenues in there like Park and

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

>> Even if you know the answer, the more important Broadway, but Ill try to make some round assump-

thing is still the process. You may want to admit that tions.

you know the answer in case the interviewer wants to I know the streets go at least as high as 125th Street

change the question. Either way, you still need to give a in Harlem. And I think they go even higher, at least

solid case interview answer to this question. to 175th Street if I correctly recall the time I drove

down into Manhattan. Plus, I know the southern tip

Candidate: How am I supposed to know anything of the island, the older part, doesnt have the grid. For

THE INTERVIEW

about Manhattan? Ive never been there. Im from example, down by Wall Street, its kind of haphazard,

UNPLUGGED

Paris/San Francisco/Des Moines. like downtown Boston. So when I put all that together,

CHAPTER 2

Im going to say there are 200 streets running east to

>> This might be a fair point. Its tough when you get a west in Manhattan.

question that pertains to a topic about which you know In terms of those running north to south, I know

nothing. And to be fair, if your interviewer knows that that there are somewhat more than ten avenues, plus

you have no experience with Manhattan, he likely the named, non-numbered streets. I will therefore say

wont ask you this question. But then again, maybe he there are 15 streets running north to south. That leaves

will. So be ready. If you are indeed from Paris, jump in me with 200 x 15 = 3,000 intersections.

Market-Sizing

and say something like, Well, Im sorry, I know next Im going to think in terms of intersections and

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

to nothing about Manhattan. But I know its a big city blocks, since I think thats easiest. Here, Ive been

and I come from Paris, another big city. So Ill just use scratching this down in a rough map; this is how Im

what I know about Paris and try to extrapolate from looking at it. I know there are some exceptions to the

there. Your interviewer should be fine with this rules Ive laid out, but my assumptions seem solid and

tactic. If hes not, hell probably provide some additional the variations will likely balance each other out. Does

information to help get you started. this seem OK with you?

Good Answer

> TIP

Candidate: There are a couple of ways to go about

CHAPTER 4

Its okay to factor a bit of intuition into your

answering this question, so Ill try to break it down into answersthat will come in handy in the busi-

parts. I figure Im going to have to come up with some ness world, too.

notion of the size of Manhattan and also the likely locations

of pay phones. Ill start with the size of Manhattan.

>> Good job. The candidate is developing the structure

>> Good start. The candidate has successfully laid out two and has quickly pulled together a number of solid NAILING THE CASE

key pieces of data needed and has created a logical assumptions. There were other bases for these

structure to use in walking the interviewer toward the assumptions, including land area or population, but

answer. the grid appears to be the easiest way to come up with

CHAPTER 5

Candidate: Although I dont know Manhattan inti- number assumptions. The interviewer is fine with his

mately, I do know theres a grid system in much of approach, so the candidate should keep on moving.

Ace Your Case III: Market-Sizing Questions

Candidate: Now let me think about locations of pay enough time, the interviewer may allow the candidate

phones. To keep it simple we can think about pay to slog through a bunch of specific assumptions about

phones that are outside and pay phones that are inside. types of establishments. In this case, he tells the

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

Outside areas will include things like street corners candidate to make some broader assumptions.

and the sides of buildings. Inside would be lobbies of

buildings and such. I think there will be very few pay Candidate: OK, Ill try to keep it broad. If I think

phones in residential buildings, so we are mostly talking about an intersection, theres probably an average of

office buildings, restaurants, and hotels. one restaurant, one office building, and a quarter of

a hotel. This is assuming that on average each block is

>> Another good, quick summary that still has the mostly residential. Lets just say there is one pay phone

THE INTERVIEW

candidate moving ahead confidently. in the lobby of each type of building. I realize that some

UNPLUGGED

CHAPTER 2

Candidate: Ill start with the outdoor phones. I know if I use my 3,000 intersections, that means 3,000 x

I have the aforementioned 3,000 intersections. And 2.25. Well, thats going to be more than 6,000, which

there are four corners to every intersection. Now, I added to the 5,000 equates to 11,000 pay phones. That

know some corners have no phones and others have number seems too high. Im going to revise my estimate

a bank of phones. And thats not even covering the and say theres one inside pay phone per intersection,

banks of phones that sometimes appear midblock which means 3,000 inside pay phones, which means

on the sides of buildings. There are a lot of angles to 8,000 total. Hmmm. That still feels a bit high to me,

Market-Sizing

consider, so Ill make the assumption that every other but the assumptions seemed reasonable along the way.

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

corner of every intersection has one phone, meaning What do you think? Should I start over?

two per intersection, meaning 6,000 outside phones in

Manhattan. This number seems a little high to me, so Interviewer: Thats fine. I actually dont know the

why dont I make it 5,000. exact answer anyway. What I wanted was your thought

process and its been good so far. Lets look at your little

>> This is a good piece of thinking. Clear, methodical map sketch, though, and think through briefly what

THE PRACTICE RANGE

assumptions with solid math. Stating your gut feel is wrinkles or other assumptions youd test if you had

OK, too. Those reactions can be valuable and often more time. Just run through them for me.

right. In a real-world situation, a gut feel might cause

CHAPTER 4

you to re-evaluate a position or try another angle. >> In some cases, your interviewer will not know the

But for now, the interviewer is satisfied and so the exact answer. Once again, thats because the exact

candidate can move on. answer doesnt matter. The process does, however, along

with your performance and attitude. In this case, the

Candidate: Next, I have to come up with the candidates gut reaction was effective and relevant and

number of pay phones inside buildings. This could be has led to this final chance to shine.

NAILING THE CASE

and so on. Would you like me to be very granular here Candidate: There are a number of things Id look at.

or shall I make some broader assumptions? First of all, youve got Central Park sitting in the middle

CHAPTER 5

>>This is a reasonable question. The candidate is not trying in my grid assumptions. Youd have to knock out a lot

to get off easy, but rather stating the facts. If theres of intersections. Next, you have the issue of the streets

64 W E T F E E T I N S I D ER GUID E

and the avenues on the edge of the island only having

one or two accessible corners, not always four. Finally,

when looking at the number of buildings in a block, Id

AT A GLANCE

CHAPTER 1

probably be better off thinking in square blocks, since

buildings are large. Finally, because my gut tells me the

results arent quite right, Id want to triangulate with

some more methods. Probably a course of assumptions

using phones per population would be reasonable.

THE INTERVIEW

the candidate has done a good job. The lesson as always:

UNPLUGGED

You dont have to be right, but you do have to do the

CHAPTER 2

case right. Make good assumptions, nail the math,

listen to your gut reactions, summarize, talk out loud,

lay out a plan, and follow it. All these things are what

count. This is a case in which jotting down thoughts, or

the map in this case, will help you a great deal.

Market-Sizing

Case Rules

CHAPTER 3

THE PRACTICE RANGE

CHAPTER 4

NAILING THE CASE

CHAPTER 5

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