CALCULO DEL CAUDAL DOMINANTE:

AO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC Qmax
1979 7.868 5.622 35.831 6.313 2.824 0.144 0.028 0.02 8.063 1.276 4.301 1.379 35.831
1980 8.29 9.769 3.834 1.623 0.508 5.304 0.021 0.123 5.931 2.605 37.492 2.214 37.492
1981 37.016 24.716 24.52 6.314 1.641 2.597 0.509 0.814 6.449 3.172 9.613 8.664 37.016
1982 10.236 28.508 24.089 35.849 4.516 0.214 0.014 0.012 14.711 150.086 90.354 86.347 150.086
1983 40.367 8.561 64.726 28.66 16.234 6.074 0.103 0.598 3.362 2.327 7.712 13.752 64.726
1984 4.838 27.063 10.103 2.835 1.249 0.022 0.017 0.099 11.481 15.453 13.7 1.53 27.063
1985 0.449 38.201 4.756 1.824 0.517 3.568 0.311 1.991 8.376 4.858 2.842 5.285 38.201
1986 4.292 19.146 47.874 12.823 13.608 0.098 0.042 0.665 1.422 0.877 15.428 2.262 47.874
1987 10.399 41.442 3.535 5.126 3.299 0.021 0.169 0.01 7.678 10.485 2.437 4.513 41.442
1988 18.28 1.183 12.611 11.909 1.16 0.447 0.005 0.019 4.349 1.815 24.537 2.755 24.537
1989 428.702 45.553 32.726 9.664 3.551 1.809 0.065 3.094 0.016 3.306 2.595 1.84 428.702
1990 4.771 4.902 7.234 1.036 28.996 3.299 0.093 0.506 6.678 3.406 21.47 15.637 28.996
1991 7.153 2.814 12.701 22.413 17.453 0.019 0.016 0.044 4.314 0.281 40.825 19.436 40.825
1992 6.581 1.455 11.847 12.951 0.185 1.57 0.01 0.009 9.5 0.412 18.052 8.717 18.052
1993 14.266 4.017 17.384 14.752 143.785 5.66 1.757 7.092 20.512 2.015 22.932 1.988 143.785
1994 12.497 26.646 27.668 26.916 2.411 0.278 0.018 0.389 7.018 1.783 0.414 1.128 27.668
1995 0.605 36.089 19.419 9.143 9.801 0.107 0.033 0.778 4.965 0.742 10.688 1.496 36.089
1996 18.08 18.791 16.754 4.736 0.898 2.38 0.035 1.01 4.245 19.113 21.026 1.628 21.026
1997 10.81 0.849 4.963 9.891 24.688 0.238 0.212 0.249 2.945 483.657 48.267 19.913 483.657
1998 78.185 71.504 414.134 56.021 18.297 3.283 0.768 0.484 6.413 2.521 9.739 0.449 414.134

DATOS OBTENIDOS DE http://stream.princeton.edu/LAFDM/WEBPAGE/interface.php?locale=sp (LATIN AMERICAN FLOOD AND DROUGHT MONITOR)

Haciendo uso del programa HidroEsta2 hacemos el anlisis estadstico y probabilstico de los
datos de caudales mximos obtenidos anteriormente.

CAUDAL
AO
MAXIMO
1979 35.831
1980 37.492
1981 37.016
1982 150.086
1983 64.726
1984 27.063
1985 38.201
1986 47.874
1987 41.442
1988 24.537
1989 428.702
1990 28.996
1991 40.825
1992 18.052
1993 143.785
1994 27.668
1995 36.089
1996 21.026
1997 483.657
1998 414.134

Anlisis por la distribucin normal:

 Resultados

Ajuste de una serie de datos a la distribucin Normal

Serie de datos X:

----------------------------------------
N X
----------------------------------------
1 35.831
2 37.492
3 37.016
4 150.086
5 64.726
6 27.063
7 38.201
8 47.874
9 41.442
10 24.537
11 428.702
12 28.996
13 40.825
14 18.052
15 143.785
16 27.668
17 36.089
18 21.026
19 483.657
20 414.134
----------------------------------------
Clculos del ajuste Smirnov Kolmogorov:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
m X P(X) F(Z) Ordinario F(Z) Mom Lineal Delta
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 18.052 0.0476 0.2746 0.2213 0.2270
2 21.026 0.0952 0.2813 0.2290 0.1860
3 24.537 0.1429 0.2893 0.2383 0.1464
4 27.063 0.1905 0.2951 0.2450 0.1046
5 27.668 0.2381 0.2965 0.2467 0.0584
6 28.996 0.2857 0.2996 0.2503 0.0139
7 35.831 0.3333 0.3157 0.2693 0.0176
8 36.089 0.3810 0.3163 0.2701 0.0646
9 37.016 0.4286 0.3185 0.2727 0.1101
10 37.492 0.4762 0.3197 0.2741 0.1565
11 38.201 0.5238 0.3214 0.2761 0.2024
12 40.825 0.5714 0.3277 0.2837 0.2437
13 41.442 0.6190 0.3292 0.2855 0.2899
14 47.874 0.6667 0.3449 0.3046 0.3217
15 64.726 0.7143 0.3874 0.3570 0.3268
16 143.785 0.7619 0.5965 0.6229 0.1654
17 150.086 0.8095 0.6128 0.6433 0.1967
18 414.134 0.8571 0.9802 0.9958 0.1230
19 428.702 0.9048 0.9844 0.9971 0.0797
20 483.657 0.9524 0.9942 0.9994 0.0418
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------
Ajuste con momentos ordinarios:
-------------------------------------------------------
Como el delta terico 0.3268, es mayor que el delta tabular 0.3041. Los datos no se
ajustan a la distribucin Normal, con un nivel de significacin del 5%
-------------------------------------------------------
Parmetros de la distribucin normal:
-------------------------------------------------------
Con momentos ordinarios:
Parmetro de localizacin (Xm)= 107.3601
Parmetro de escala (S)= 149.0828

Con momentos lineales:

Media lineal (Xl)= 107.3601
Desviacin estndar lineal (Sl)= 116.3397
-----------------------------
Anlisis por la distribucin Gumbel:

Resultados

Ajuste de una serie de datos a la distribucin Gumbel

Serie de datos X:

----------------------------------------
N X
----------------------------------------
1 35.831
2 37.492
3 37.016
4 150.086
5 64.726
6 27.063
7 38.201
8 47.874
9 41.442
10 24.537
11 428.702
12 28.996
13 40.825
14 18.052
15 143.785
16 27.668
17 36.089
18 21.026
19 483.657
20 414.134
----------------------------------------

Clculos del ajuste Smirnov Kolmogorov:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------
m X P(X) G(Y) Ordinario G(Y) Mom Lineal Delta
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------
1 18.052 0.0476 0.2980 0.2365 0.2504
2 21.026 0.0952 0.3073 0.2473 0.2120
3 24.537 0.1429 0.3183 0.2602 0.1754
4 27.063 0.1905 0.3262 0.2696 0.1357
5 27.668 0.2381 0.3281 0.2718 0.0900
6 28.996 0.2857 0.3323 0.2768 0.0466
7 35.831 0.3333 0.3539 0.3027 0.0205
8 36.089 0.3810 0.3547 0.3037 0.0263
9 37.016 0.4286 0.3576 0.3072 0.0710
10 37.492 0.4762 0.3591 0.3091 0.1171
11 38.201 0.5238 0.3613 0.3118 0.1625
12 40.825 0.5714 0.3697 0.3219 0.2018
13 41.442 0.6190 0.3716 0.3242 0.2474
14 47.874 0.6667 0.3919 0.3491 0.2747
15 64.726 0.7143 0.4448 0.4145 0.2695
16 143.785 0.7619 0.6634 0.6824 0.0985
17 150.086 0.8095 0.6779 0.6994 0.1316
18 414.134 0.8571 0.9607 0.9782 0.1036
19 428.702 0.9048 0.9652 0.9813 0.0605
20 483.657 0.9524 0.9782 0.9895 0.0258
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------

-------------------------------------------------------
Ajuste con momentos ordinarios:
-------------------------------------------------------
Como el delta terico 0.2747, es menor que el delta tabular 0.3041. Los datos se ajustan a
la distribucin Gumbel, con un nivel de significacin del 5%
 -------------------------------------------------------
Parmetros de la distribucin Gumbel:
-------------------------------------------------------
Con momentos ordinarios:
Parmetro de posicin ()= 40.2649
Parmetro de escala (alfa)= 116.2394

Con momentos lineales:

Parmetro de posicin (l)= 52.7006
Parmetro de escala (alfal)= 94.6951

Anlisis por la distribucin LogGumbel:

 Resultados

Ajuste de una serie de datos a la distribucin log-Gumbel o distribucin de Frchet

Serie de datos X:

----------------------------------------
N X
----------------------------------------
1 35.831
2 37.492
3 37.016
4 150.086
5 64.726
6 27.063
7 38.201
8 47.874
9 41.442
10 24.537
11 428.702
12 28.996
13 40.825
14 18.052
15 143.785
16 27.668
17 36.089
18 21.026
19 483.657
 20 414.134
----------------------------------------

Clculos del ajuste Smirnov Kolmogorov:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------
m X P(X) G(Y) Ordinario G(Y) Mom Lineal Delta
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------
1 18.052 0.0476 0.0948 0.0878 0.0472
2 21.026 0.0952 0.1425 0.1349 0.0473
3 24.537 0.1429 0.2004 0.1929 0.0576
4 27.063 0.1905 0.2411 0.2340 0.0506
5 27.668 0.2381 0.2506 0.2436 0.0125
6 28.996 0.2857 0.2711 0.2644 0.0147
7 35.831 0.3333 0.3668 0.3620 0.0335
8 36.089 0.3810 0.3701 0.3654 0.0108
9 37.016 0.4286 0.3817 0.3773 0.0468
10 37.492 0.4762 0.3876 0.3833 0.0886
11 38.201 0.5238 0.3962 0.3920 0.1276
12 40.825 0.5714 0.4264 0.4230 0.1450
13 41.442 0.6190 0.4332 0.4299 0.1859
14 47.874 0.6667 0.4971 0.4954 0.1696
15 64.726 0.7143 0.6188 0.6198 0.0955
16 143.785 0.7619 0.8373 0.8411 0.0754
17 150.086 0.8095 0.8451 0.8489 0.0355
18 414.134 0.8571 0.9536 0.9560 0.0964
19 428.702 0.9048 0.9555 0.9579 0.0507
20 483.657 0.9524 0.9616 0.9638 0.0092
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------

-------------------------------------------------------
Ajuste con momentos ordinarios:
-------------------------------------------------------
Como el delta terico 0.1859, es menor que el delta tabular 0.3041. Los datos se ajustan a
la distribucin logGumbel, con un nivel de significacin del 5%

------------------------------------------------------------
Parmetros de la distribucin logGumbel:
------------------------------------------------------------
Con momentos ordinarios:
Parmetro de posicin ()= 3.5811
Parmetro de escala (alfa)= 0.8027

Con momentos lineales:

Parmetro de posicin (l)= 3.5913
Parmetro de escala (alfal)= 0.785
Viendo que la distribucin Gumbel y LogGumbel se adecuan ms al grafico de la distribucin
densidad se calcula el caudal mximo, tomando como referencia la distribucin Gumbel y
haciendo uso el HidroEsta se tiene:

- Caudal mximo:

= 340.55 3 /
 - Caudal dominante:
= 4.0 1.21 0.28

Tambin:
2
= = 50%
3

Luego se tiene:

= 0.5 340.55

= 170.275 3 /

PENDIENTE

: 3402 . . . .
: 3404 . . . .

2m

120 m

2
=
120

= 0.0167

Perfil longitudinal obtenido a partir de Google Earth