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The threat from terrorism lingers fifteen years after the attacks on 9/11. Recent attacks in
Brussels, Ankara, San Bernardino, and Paris have ignited fears across the globe of ISISs
reach beyond the borders of Iraq and Syria. Although its a shadow of its former self, the
original terror threat, al Qaeda, still poses a danger to Americans and our allies. Al
Qaedas affiliate groups in Yemen and across North Africa continue to carry out attacks
in their respective regions, often against western interests. These groups continue to
threaten the homeland, recruit, and influence attackers beyond the traditional battlefield,
and plan attacks in the West. In order for our elected officials to provide effective
oversight and evaluate U.S. efforts to combat terrorism, a comprehensive understanding
of the terrorism threat is essential.
When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, bin Laden vehemently opposed the decision by the
Saudi government to allow U.S. forces into Saudi Arabia. After he turned against the
Saudi royal family, bin Laden was expelled from the kingdom. He moved to Sudan and
began training al Qaeda fighters for conflicts in the Balkans, Kashmir, and the Philippines.
Under pressure from the U.S. and Egypt, Sudan ejected bin Laden in 1996. He returned to
Afghanistan, where the new government under the Taliban provided sanctuary for al
Qaeda. It was during this time that al Qaeda shifted its focus from governments in the
Middle East, the near enemy, to the far enemy the U.S.2
Evolution of Attacks
Al Qaeda carried out several terrorist attacks against the U.S. before they became well
known on a global scale. Its first attempt to kill U.S. troops was in 1992, when it bombed a
hotel in Yemen, killing two Austrian tourists.3 In 1993, two U.S. helicopters were shot
down in Somalia and 18 U.S. special operations forces were killed by Somalis trained by al
Qaeda. In 1998, bin Laden issued a fatwa an Islamic decree calling on his followers to
kill Americans around the world. Later that year, al Qaeda carried out one of its largest
attacks, bombing the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and killing about 300
people and injuring thousands.4 In 2000, al Qaeda bombed the USS Cole, a navy destroyer,
in the port outside Aden, Yemen, killing 17 American sailors.5
The attacks on September 11, 2001, marked the largest operation ever by al Qaeda, killing
nearly 3,000 people. The U.S. named bin Laden and al Qaeda as responsible for the attack,
and Congress passed an Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF), giving the
President the authority to attack al Qaeda.6 Operation Enduring Freedom began soon
after to take out al Qaeda members and the Taliban who provided them safe haven in
Afghanistan. This AUMF is still used today to justify U.S. operations against ISIS and al
Qaeda groups. NATO invoked its mutual defense clause for the first time, and coalition
partners joined the U.S. in attacking al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
In Pakistan, the U.S. has conducted drone strikes against terrorists, killing between 1,500
and 3,500 terrorists8 and carrying out over 400 drone strikes since 2004.9 The U.S.
continues to carry out covert drone strikes against terrorists in Pakistan, killing an
estimated 60 to 85 in 2015 alone.10 About 8,400 U.S. forces will remain in Afghanistan to
train and assist the Afghan National Security Forces. The U.S. also continues
counterterrorism operations against insurgent groups in Afghanistan. Last year, U.S. and
Afghan forces carried out a joint operation to destroy al Qaeda training grounds.11
Remaining al Qaeda terrorists, however, still aim to attack Americans, and the symbolism
of the central organization still inspires supporters.
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM): Based in Algeria and the Sahel.
The U.S. has pursued a strategy of taking out AQAP terrorists who pose a threat to the
homeland, while working with the Yemeni government to build their capacity to take on
the threat. Citing authority provided by the 2001 AUMF against al Qaeda, the U.S. has
carried out over 140 airstrikes against AQAP since 2002. These operations have killed 725
AQAP members, including several key leaders.14 In 2011, the U.S. killed Anwar al Awlaki,
Al Shabaab is a Somalia-based terrorist group formed in 2006 that focuses its efforts
internally, aspiring to create Islamic rule in Somalia. Its leaders share ties with core al
Qaeda, and al Shabaab formally joined forces with al Qaeda in 2012.16 The U.S. State
Department estimates the group has several thousand members.17 Al Shabaabs
activities generally remain confined to Somalia, but the group has launched major attacks
in neighboring countries. Al Shabaab was responsible for the 2013 attack on the
Westgate Mall in Kenya, which killed 67 people. Last year, al Shabaab militants laid siege
to a Kenyan university and killed about 147 people.
The U.S. has concentrated its efforts in Somalia on strengthening African Union forces to
fight al Shabaab. In addition, since 2013, the U.S. conducts targeted drone strikes and
special operations missions against the group and has stepped up these efforts in recent
months. In 2015, U.S. airstrikes killed al Shabaabs top leaders, including Adnan Garaar
and Abdirahman Sandhere.18 This year, U.S. aircraft struck an al Shabaab training camp,
killing more than 150 militants, including senior leaders.
AQIM was founded in 2007. They operate primarily out of Algeria, but also in Libya,
Tunisia, Mali, and Niger. AQIM aims to remove western influence and establish Islamic
law throughout North Africa. Members have increasingly spoken out against the West,
and aspire to create an Islamic state. The terrorists who attacked the U.S. facility in
Benghazi and killed four Americans, including the U.S. ambassador, were linked to AQIM.
The U.S. provides civilian and military assistance and established the Trans-Sahara
Counterterrorism Partnership in 2005 to counter violent extremism in the region. Frances
2013 intervention in Mali was a setback for AQIM, which has dwindled to several hundred
fighters in Algeria and across the Sahel.19 As their operations have died down, AQIM has
been kidnapping western citizens and holding them for ransom in order to make money.
Boko Haram is a Nigeria-based terrorist group that aims to replace the Nigerian
government with Islamic rule, but also conducts operations in the broader region. Its
20
In 2014, the U.S. sent 80 military advisers to Nigeria following Boko Harams school
kidnapping. Last fall, 300 U.S. military personnel were deployed to Cameroon to provide
regional forces surveillance and intelligence assistance and training against Boko
Haram.24 Currently, the Defense Department is planning to send Special Operations
forces to Nigeria to assist regional forces in advisory roles.25 The Director of National
Intelligence, James Clapper, has said that Boko Haram lost territory in 2015, but will
continue to pose a threat in Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, and Chad.26
Al Nusrah Front developed out of the civil war in Syria and was originally linked to ISIS.
They declared their intention in 2012 to overthrow the Assad regime from power and set
up Sunni Islamic law in its place. Divisions grew between ISIS and al Nusrah and Al
Nusrah pledged its allegiance to al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in 2013. Al Nusrah is
at war with the Syrian government, and often clashes with ISIS and various Syrian rebel
groups. 27 Many al Nusrah fighters have defected to ISIS, further revealing strains
between the two organizations. Last fall, Zawahiri called for reconciliation between al
Nusrah and ISIS, despite viewing ISIS as illegitimate. The U.S. State Department
estimates al Nusrah has members in the low thousands.28 The U.S. has been targeting
al Nusrah in Iraq and Syria since 2014. The U.S. recently conducted an airstrike that hit a
senior al Qaeda meeting in Syria, killing 20 al Nusrah terrorists, including their
spokesman, Abu Firas al-Suri.29 Over the summer, al Nusrah severed ties with al Qaeda
and rebranded the group as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, or "The Levant Conquest Front."
Al Qaeda leadership preferred its offshoot, al Nusrah, to operate in Syria and had
demanded ISIS to leave the country. ISIS moved into Syria despite this demand, and al
Qaeda disassociated with ISIS in early 2014. ISIS attacked al Qaeda allies and other rebel
groups across Syria. By the summer of 2014, ISIS had expanded territory in Iraq and Syria,
using Iraqs political and sectarian divisions to seize Mosul from Iraqi security forces, in
addition to many Sunni-populated lands. Once it acquired control of significant territory,
Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, declared ISIS a caliphate a state that enforces
Islamic law. ISIS has also created its own propaganda magazine, Dabiq, to flaunt its
successes, lay out its vision, and recruit followers. According to the December 2015 issue
of the magazine, ISISs goal is to expand the caliphate in the region and eventually across
the world - a stark contrast to related terrorist groups that focus on attacking Western
targets and regional governments.30
ISIS has also established a 6,000-strong force in Libya. Fighters have come from other
North African countries, as well as Iraq and Syria, taking advantage of the years of
political turmoil there to acquire territory. The U.S. recently begun conducting airstrikes
against ISIS in Libya and the new UN-backed unity government is working to secure the
country.
Al Qaeda carried out a structured, selective, top-down approach to choosing recruits and
bringing them to al Qaeda safe havens for training and planning an attack. Once these
recruits, most often of Arab descent, were trained, they went out to western targets under
al Qaeda instruction. These attackers took direct guidance from al Qaeda leadership in
coordinating attacks, which often led to western law enforcement disrupting the attack.38
By contrast, ISIS is not so selective, and therefore recruits far more volunteers than al
Qaeda ever did. The porous border between Turkey and Syria allows easy passage for
foreign fighters. ISISs enhanced use of the internet and social media allows it to reach
followers in the West, who can be radicalized and trained into homegrown terrorists
without ever traveling to Syria. ISIS followers who carry out attacks have demonstrated a
degree of independence unseen in al Qaeda attacks, shielding their plans from
In recent years, the U.S. has stepped up its efforts to address radicalization and counter
violent extremism. In 2011, the administration developed a strategy to counter violent
extremism. This includes: enhancing federal-local community engagement, expanding law
enforcement expertise on countering violent extremism, and countering extremist
propaganda.40 The U.S. Department of Homeland Securitys new Countering Violent
Extremism Task Force is a permanent office that shares best practices to bolster the
capacity of international partners to address the problem. The U.S. held a summit in 2015,
bringing together world leaders, local leaders, and civil society to better understand the
threat, counter extremist narratives, and address how to safeguard communities against
the threat.
The U.S. Defense Departments Cyber Command has intensified their effort to prevent
ISIS members from using social media to recruit and influence potential followers. The
U.S. State Department recently modified its approach to countering ISIS messaging with
the new Global Engagement Center. This will allow the U.S. to work with regional partners
and use data-tested messaging strategies to counter terrorist narratives. Some
technology companies are also committed to preventing the use of their platforms by ISIS
and related terrorist groups for recruitment and radicalization. Twitter has taken down
more than 125,000 accounts related to ISIS, and Facebook has agreed to do the same.
The U.S. government is working with technology companies to establish the most
Conclusion
The U.S. continues to build the capacity of regional partners to fight back against these
groups, while also carrying out special operations attacks and airstrikes. ISIS remains the
most enduring threat, seeking to expand their territory and influence across the Middle
East. U.S. and coalition efforts have been successful in pushing back its territorial gains,
but the war against terrorist groups and radicalization will be a long-term effort. Gains on
the battlefield alone will not be enough to defeat the ideology behind ISIS. For information
on how U.S. policymakers can craft a tough and smart strategy to defeat ISIS and related
groups, see our Plan to Combat Terrorism.
2. Fawaz A. Gerges, The Far Enemy: Why Jihad Went Global, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2005. Accessed
April 21, 2016. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2005-11-01/far-enemy-why-jihad-
went-global
3. Robert Windrem, Al-Qaida Timeline: Plots and Attacks, NBC News. Accessed March 30, 2016. Available at:
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/4677978/ns/world_news-hunt_for_al_qaida/t/al-qaida-timeline-plots-
attacks/#.Vvvy7OIrKUk
4. Timeline: Al Qaedas Global Context, PBS. Accessed March 30, 2016. Available at:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/knew/etc/cron.html
5. John Rollins, Al Qaeda and Affiliates: Historical Perspective, Global Presence, and Implications for U.S. Policy,
Congressional Research Service, January 25, 2011. Accessed April 5, 2016. Available at:
https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/R41070.pdf
6. Specifically, the AUMF authorized the president to use military force against Those nations, organizations, or
persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11,
2001, or harbored such organizations or persons Public Law No: 107-40, Authorization for Use of Military Force,
September 18, 2001. Accessed March 30, 2016. Available at: https://www.congress.gov/bill/107th-congress/senate-
joint-resolution/23
7. Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional
Research Service, December 8, 2014. Accessed March 30, 2016. Available at:
https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf
8. Philip Bump, How Many Terrorist Has President Obama Actually Taken Out? Probably Over 30,000, The
Washington Post, December 7, 2015. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-
fix/wp/2015/12/07/president-obama-likes-to-brag-about-the-terrorists-he-has-taken-out-how-many-is-that-exactly/
9. Jack Serle, CIA Drone Strikes in Pakistan Fall to Lowest Level in 8 Years, Bureaus Annual Report Reveals, The
Bureau of Investigative Journalism, January 7, 2016. Accessed March 30, 2016. Available at:
https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2016/01/07/cia-drone-strikes-in-pakistan-fall-to-lowest-level-in-8-years-
bureaus-annual-report-reveals/
10. Jack Serle, CIA Drone Strikes in Pakistan Fall to Lowest Level in 8 Years, Bureaus Annual Report Reveals, The
Bureau of Investigative Journalism, January 7, 2016. Accessed March 30, 2016. Available at:
https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2016/01/07/cia-drone-strikes-in-pakistan-fall-to-lowest-level-in-8-years-
bureaus-annual-report-reveals/
11. Nick Paton Walsh, Jason Hanna, and Mark Morgenstein, Al Qaeda sites in Afghanistan Dismantled in Joint
Operation, U.S. Military Says, CNN, October 13, 2015. Accessed March 30, 2016. Available at:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/13/asia/afghanistan-al-qaeda-us/
12. Jeremy M. Sharp, Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations, Congressional Research Service, February 11, 2015.
Accessed March 31, 2016. Available at: https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf
13. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Backgrounder, Council on Foreign Relations, June 19, 2015. Accessed
March 31, 2016. Available at: http://www.cfr.org/yemen/al-qaeda-arabian-peninsula-aqap/p9369
14. Bill Roggio and Bob Barry, Charting the Data for US Air Strikes in Yemen, 2002-2016, The Long War Journal, March
29, 2016. Accessed March 31, 2016. Available at: http://www.longwarjournal.org/multimedia/Yemen/code/Yemen-
strike.php
15. Strikes Kill at Least 50 at Qaeda Yemen Camp: Medics, Official, Reuters, March 23, 2016. Accessed March 31,
2016. Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-yemen-strike-idUSKCN0WO37I
17. United States, U.S. State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism 2014, June 2015. Accessed March 31, 2016.
Available at: http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2014/
18. Terri Moon Cronk, DoD Confirms U.S. Strikes Killed Senior Terrorist Operatives, U.S. Department of Defense,
December 7, 2015. Accessed April 7, 2016. Available at: http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-
View/Article/633252/dod-confirms-us-strikes-killed-senior-terrorist-operatives
19. United States, U.S. State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism 2014, June 2015. Accessed March 31, 2016.
Available at: http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2014/
20. Boko Haram, National Counterterrorism Center. Accessed March 31, 2016.
https://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/boko_haram.html
21. United States, U.S. State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism 2014, June 2015. Accessed March 31, 2016.
Available at: http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2014/
22. United States, U.S. State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism 2014, June 2015. Accessed March 31, 2016.
Available at: http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2014/
23. Jim Muir, Nigerias Boko Haram Pledges Allegiance to Islamic State, BBC News, March 7, 2015. Accessed March
31, 2016. Available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31784538
24. Alexander Thurston, U.S. Strategy Against Boko Haram Could Backfire, Al Jazeera, October 22, 2015. Accessed
March 31, 2016. Available at: http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/10/us-strategy-against-boko-haram-could-
prove-counterproductive.html
25. Eric Schmitt and Dionne Searcey, U.S. Plans to Put Advisers on Front Lines of Nigerias War on Boko Haram, The
New York Times, February 25, 2016. Accessed March 31, 2016. Available at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/26/world/africa/us-plans-to-help-nigeria-in-war-on-boko-haram-terrorists.html
26. United States, Congress, Senate, Armed Services Committee, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S.
Intelligence Community, Statement by James R. Clapper, 114th Congress, 2nd Session, February 9, 2016.Accessed
March 31, 2016. Available at: http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Clapper_02-09-16.pdf
27. Sam Heller, Al Qaedas Screwing Up in Syria, The Daily Beast, April 5, 2016. Accessed April 7, 2016. Available at:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/05/al-qaeda-s-screwing-up-in-syria.html.
28. United States, U.S. State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism 2014, June 2015. Accessed March 31, 2016.
Available at: http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2014/
29. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-airstrike-idUSKCN0X11XK?
feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter
30. Jessica Stern, What Does ISIS Really Want Now? Lawfare, November 28, 2015. Accessed April 20, 2016. Available
at: https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-does-isis-really-want-now
31. Kristina Wong, General: 45,000 ISIS Fighters Killed in Two Years, The Hill, August 11, 2016. Accessed September
30, 2016. Available at: http://thehill.com/policy/defense/291179-general-isis-fighters-becoming-easier-to-kill.
32. U.S. Department of Defense, Operation Inherent Resolve, March 17, 2016. Accessed April 1, 2016. Available at:
http://www.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/0814_Inherent-Resolve
33. Matthew Rosenberg, U.S. Drops Bombs Not Just on ISIS, but on Its Cash, Too, The New York Times, January 20,
2016. Accessed April 4, 2016. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/us/politics/us-drops-bombs-not-just-
on-isis-but-on-its-cash-too.html
34. ISIS Lost 40 Percent of Territory in Iraq, 20 Percent in Syria: Coalition Spokesamn , NBC News, January 5, 2016.
Accessed April 4, 2016. Available at: http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/isis-lost-40-percent-territory-iraq-20-
percent-syria-coalition-n490426
35. Euan McKirdy, Jim Sciutto and Jamie Crawford, U.S. Sending More Troops, Apaches to Iraq, CNN, April 18, 2016.
Accessed April 22, 2016. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/18/politics/defense-secretary-carter-iraq/
36. United Nations, Report of the Secretary-General on the Threat Posed by ISIL (Daesh) to International Peace and
Security and the Range of United Nations Efforts in Support of Member States in Countering the Threat, United Nations
Security Council, January 26, 2016. Accessed April 1, 2016. Available at:
http://www.un.org/en/sc/ctc/docs/2016/N1602353_EN.pdf
37. Foreign Fighters: An Updated Assessment on the Flow of Foreign into Syria and Iraq, The Soufan Group,
December 2015. Accessed April 5, 2016. Available at: http://soufangroup.com/wp-
content/uploads/2015/12/TSG_ForeignFightersUpdate3.pdf
38. Clint Watts, Why ISIS Beats al Qaeda in Europe, Foreign Affairs, April 4, 2016. Accessed April 5, 2016. Available at:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-04-04/why-isis-beats-al-qaeda-europe
39. United States, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Press Office, United States Begins Implementation of
Changes to the Visa Waiver Program, January 21, 2016. Accessed February 24, 2016. Available at:
https://www.dhs.gov/news/2016/01/21/united-states-begins-implementation-changes-visa-waiver-program
40. Jerome P. Bjelopera, Countering Violent Extremism in the United States, Congressional Research Service,
February 19, 2014. Accessed April 4, 2016. Available at: https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42553.pdf