Headwinds on the Road to Zero and

the Promise of New Technology

Advancing Safety through Data
November 2, 2017
Detroit, Michigan

Adrian Lund, Ph.D.

President, IIHS and HLDI iihs.org
Established October 2016
450 members
 U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths
per billion vehicle miles traveled
1950-2016
60,000 80

70
55,000
Motor vehicle Motor vehicle 60
crash deaths
crash deaths have 50,000
50
declined significantly
45,000 40
in the U.S. during
the past 50+ years. 40,000
30

20
35,000
Crash deaths per 2016
billion vehicle miles traveled 1037,461 deaths
11.8 per billion

30,000 0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016
Automakers can take pride in
that much of the improved
safety in recent years is due
to vehicle designs
Vehicle and non-vehicle factors and highway safety
Passenger vehicle driver deaths per million vehicles, actual vs. expected for 1985 fleet

180

160

140

120

100

80 Actual rates

60 Expected rates

40
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Calendar year
New technology for the
vehicle promises to avoid
crashes altogether
Real world reductions in relevant police-reported crashes
Percent change in relevant crash type for various vehicle technologies

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40% all severities injury

-50%

-60%
forward collision low-speed autobrake fcw with autobrake lane departure side-view assist
warning warning (blind spot)
 20 automakers have committed
to make AEB a standard feature
by September 2022

99+% of U.S. market

Two auto suppliers join for self-driving cars by 2019
-USA Today, August 23, 2016

BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye team up to bring

fully autonomous driving to streets by 2021
-Reuters, July 1, 2016

Lyft predicts mostly self-driving cars by 2021

-New York Post, September 19, 2016

Kia plans fully driverless cars by 2030

-The Detroit News, January 4, 2016

Ford targets fully autonomous vehicle for ride sharing in 2021;

invests in new tech companies, doubles Silicon Valley team
-Ford media center, August 16, 2016
The promise and the
reality of advanced safety
technology
Driver acceptance and safe use
of automated systems
Percent of vehicle owners who reported driving
with forward collision warning turned on
100

80

60

unknown
40
never

sometimes
20
always

0
Toyota Volvo Dodge and Jeep
On-off status of front crash prevention systems
By manufacturer

percent with number

system on observed
Cadillac 92 206
Chevrolet 87 142
Honda 98 239
Lexus 50 8
Mazda 95 20
Volvo 94 52
total 93 667
Percent of vehicle owners who reported driving
with lane-maintenance systems turned on
100

80

60

unknown
40
never

sometimes
20
always

0
Volvo Infiniti Infiniti Toyota
lane departure warning lane departure warning lane departure prevention lane departure prevention
On-off status of lane-maintenance systems
By manufacturer

percent with number

system on observed
Cadillac 57 207
Chevrolet 50 147
Ford/Lincoln 21 115
Honda 36 239
Lexus/Toyota 68 147
Mazda 77 26
Volvo 75 105
total 51 986
Active lane keeping ranked least in trust
Average rating and 95% confidence interval by system

side-view assist
(Honda, Audi, Infiniti)

forward collision warning

adaptive cruise control

lane departure warning

active lane keeping

(Honda, Audi)

strongly disagree neutral agree strongly

disagree agree
Technologies had different problem areas
Percentage of drivers by complaint type
80

functionality and performance user interface circumstance none

60 Participant 121SA
You have to get in a wrestling match for control of
the wheel on curves.

Participant 301SV
40
On highways this worked well, but the constant
pressure in one direction was fatiguing.

Participant 329SV
20 I did not feel well notified by the system of when it
was on and had been working, but no longer could
identify the lines.

0
adaptive cruise active lane keeping lane departure forward collision side view assist
control warning warning
Level 2 automated driving
experience - problems
Lost lane lines
On-road testing of Tesla Autopilot 7.1 (hardware version 1)
Problems: stopped lead vehicle
On-road testing 2017 Mercedes-Benz E-Class
A potential role for
Advancing Safety through Data
The importance of data
Heidi King, NHTSA Deputy Administrator, Automotive News, October 23, 2017

"To fulfill the promise of automated driving systems, we must give our full
consideration to safety in the testing and development of these vehicles."
"That means rigor, being transparent, learning from one another and broadening
public understanding, not only of these vehicles potential benefits, but how safety
is being addressed in their development and testing."
The Advancing Safety through Data consortium role
Develop a common database that can be searched by VIN for specific automated features
Crash avoidance features
Automated driving features
By level of automation
By operational domain

A standardized database across different automakers at time of manufacture would

Facilitate answers to public questions about the safety of these features on the road
Make it easier to share lessons learned across automakers
Be free of privacy concerns as the vehicle has not yet been sold

Make database available to third parties through

The ASD consortium
NHTSA
IIHS/HLDI
Vehicle identification number is critical for evaluating the safety
of driving automation technology

Safety benefits of vehicle features can be assessed when tied to crash and
exposure data
VIN standard requires certain information to be encoded
Driver assistance technology and automated driving systems are not included

Manufacturers can supply information linking VIN to vehicle features

Vehicle registration, police crash reports, and insurance claim data can be
connected using VIN
VIN shown to be key for evaluating the effects of driver assistance systems
on police-reported crashes and insurance claims
NHTSA should create a
public VIN-indexed
database listing vehicles
equipped with automated
driving systems
And EDR information for after the crash
Advancing Safety through Data

Already looking at sharing of information from current sources

Warranties
Early warning system
Relevant information from EDRs

Develop an agreed-upon set of data elements for EDRs that would

Enable crash investigators to determine whether and which advanced features were engaged at the time of
the crash
Facilitate understanding of crash etiology

Publicly available tools for downloading information from the EDRs by

ASD
NHTSA
Research organizations
Insurers
Why is this important?
Other Headwinds
on the Road to Zero
Headwinds on the Road to Zero
--The economy
 U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths
per billion vehicle miles traveled
1950-2016
60,000 80

70
55,000
Motor vehicle Motor vehicle 60
crash deaths
crash deaths have 50,000
50
declined significantly
45,000 40
in the U.S. during
the past 50+ years. 40,000
30

20
35,000
Crash deaths per 2016
billion vehicle miles traveled 1037,461 deaths
11.8 per billion

30,000 0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016
U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths and unemployment rate
1950-2015

60,000 20%

55,000
Motor vehicle crash deaths 15%

50,000

45,000 10%

40,000
2015
5% rate
35,092 deaths
35,000
Unemployment rate

30,000 0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths per billion
vehicle miles traveled and unemployment rate
1950-2015

20 80

70
Crash deaths per
15 billion vehicle miles traveled 60

50

10 40

30

5 5 percent
20

11.2 per billion

10
Unemployment rate
0 0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Change in U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths per billion miles
traveled and unemployment rate
1950-2015

20%

15% 80%

10% Unemployment rate

40%
5%

0%
0%
-5%

-10%
-40%
-15% Crash deaths per
billion vehicle miles traveled
-20% -80%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Motor vehicle crash deaths, 1990-2015
With projections for 2016-24

45,000
motor vehicle crash deaths
if unemployment remains steady at 4.9
if unemployment declines by 1.7% each year
if unemployment declines by 8.0% each year

40,000

35,000

30,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Headwinds on the Road to Zero
--Rising speed limits
Maximum speed limits
October 2017

WA MT ND
MN
ME
SD WI
OR VT
ID WY NY NH
MI
IA MA
NE
PA
IL IN OH RI
CT
NV NJ
UT CO
KS MO WV DE
KY VA
CA MD
OK TN NC DC
AZ NM AR
SC
MS AL
GA
LA
TX
55 mph (DC only)
60 mph
HI FL
AK 65 mph
70 mph
75 mph
80 mph
85 mph
Effects of National Maximum Speed Limit

55 mph NMSL
3,000-5,000 fewer deaths in 1974
2,000-4,000 fewer deaths in 1983
Partial repeal
19 percent increase in deaths on rural interstates
2,000 more deaths during 1987-90

Full repeal
17 percent increase in fatality rates on interstates
1,000 more deaths during 1996-97
12,545 more deaths during 1995-2005
Deaths and expected deaths if maximum speed limits
had not increased
1993-2013

44,000
deaths

expected
40,000 33,000 deaths

36,000

32,000
1,900
deaths

28,000
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Legalizing recreational use of marijuana
--Another headwind?
Combined evaluation of legal recreational-use states

0.54
WA MT ND
0.68
0.80 MN
ID ME
0.53 WI VT
SD
OR 0.53 WY 0.69 NH
0.55 MI NY
0.55 IA MA
0.68 NE
UT PA RI
NV IL IN OH
0.48 0.61 NJ CT
0.44 CO
0.38 KS MO WV DE
0.70 0.58 KY VA
CA MD
OK TN NC DC
AZ NM AR
SC
MS AL
GA
TX LA

FL study states
AK
HI
control states
correlation with CO
correlation with WA
correlation with OR
Collision claims after legalization of recreational marijuana use
Combined analysis of Colorado, Oregon, and Washington HLDI 2017

study states Colorado, Washington, Oregon

additional control states Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming

calendar years January 2012-October 2016

49,225,462 vehicle years

exposure
for vehicles up to 33 years of age

total number claims 2,494,668

changes in collision claims per insured

outcome measure
vehicle year

2.7% increase in collision claims

result
(statistically significant)
 Two U.S. studies differ over effects of marijuana on drivers
U.S. News & World Report, June 22, 2017

Studies offer conflicting conclusions on marijuana legalizations role

in car crashes, fatalities
The Cannabist, June 23, 2017

After-legalization traffic studies draw conflicting conclusions

Ganjapreneur, June 26, 2017

Studies differ over impact of legalized pot on highway crash numbers

Portland Press Herald, June 26, 2017

The jury is still out on legalizing marijuana impacting road collision rates
Auto Evolution, June 28, 2017

Two studies about driving and marijuana have very different results
Emerald Report, June 29, 2017

Competing studies leave haze of uncertainty connecting marijuana to traffic accidents

Colorado Politics, July 3, 2017
Pre-period correlations of collision claim rates between study
states and control states used by Aydelotte et al. 2017, AJPH
WA MT ND
MN
WI ME
SD 0.79 VT
OR ID 0.32
WY MI NY NH
IA MA
NE
IN PA RI
IL OH
0.62 CT
NV MO NJ
UT CO 0.62
KS 0.47 WV DE
-0.03
0.22 VA
CA KY 0.37 MD
-0.22 DC
OK TN NC
-0.17
AZ NM AR
0.01
AL
MS -0.07
-0.21 GA
TX
LA -0.13 SC
study states
0.03 control states
-0.15
correlation with CO
AK FL
HI correlation with WA
Crash deaths after legalization of recreational marijuana use
Colorado and Washington Aydelotte et al. 2017, AJPH

study states Colorado and Washington

Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri,

control states South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas,
Wisconsin

calendar years January 2009-December 2015

changes in annual motor vehicle crash

outcome measure
fatality rates per billion miles traveled

2.7% increase in fatalities

result
(not statistically significant)
Established October 2016
450 members
More information and links to our
YouTube channel and Twitter feed
at iihs.org

Adrian Lund, Ph.D.

President
alund@iihs.org

iihs.org