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T h u r s d a y, O c t o b e r 2 6 , 2 0 1 7
This graphic marks the latest installment of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study
Archive
of War and Syria Direct. This graphic depicts significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from October 10 - 24, 2017. The control of
terrain represented on the graphic is accurate as of October 10, 2017. 2017 (110)
October (11)
Special credit to Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for the text of this Syria SITREP Map.
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
ISW Intelligence Summary: October 13-20,
2017
Iraq and Iran compel Kurdish withdrawal
from Kirku...
Russia Renews Targeting Civilians: August
14 Oct...
The "War after ISIS" begins in Iraq
Return of Signature Iranian Explosive Could
Signal...
Syria Situation Report: September 27 -
October 10,...
Moscow Seeks to Destabilize Increasingly
Vulnerabl...
Moscow Presses in the Mediterranean
Cascading Crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan
Russia Hedges in Iraqi Kurdistan
September (6)
August (7)
July (5)
June (8)
May (9)
April (10)
March (19)
February (21)
January (14)
2016 (197)
2015 (289)
2014 (291)
2013 (82)
Recent Publications
Catherine Harris
Omer Kassim
Labels: FSA, ISIL, ISIS, SDF, Situation Report, Syria, Syria SITREP Map, Syrian Regime
S u n d a y, O c t o b e r 2 2 , 2 0 1 7
Key takeaway: The US-led campaign against ISIS achieved a major victory in Raqqa, but post-ISIS conflict in northern Syria remains likely
due to the dominant role of the Syrian Kurdish YPG in the Raqqa operation and its commitment to shaping post-ISIS governance in
accordance with the vision of PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan. Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime are meanwhile preparing to cut a deal with
the YPG for the future governance of northeastern Syria, which could oust the U.S. Turkey is exploiting US calls for action in Idlib to
establish military positions in the province that posture Turkey for future confrontation against the YPG to the north. Turkey is not
meaningfully constraining al Qaeda. In Iraq, the Kurdish retreat across Iraq's disputed internal boundaries could destabilize northern Iraq
rather than unify the country if Kurdish civilians now under the control of Iraqi forces and Iran's proxies turn to violence. Early indications of
civil unrest have already emerged. The Kurdish retreat is nonetheless a political win for Prime Minister Abadi and a military win for Iran,
whose proxies are now consolidating control over formerly contested cities and advancing further into northern Iraq.
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unclear how much military training these forces received from the coalition, however. They will likely depend on continued YPG support to
defend Raqqa against infiltration and spectacular attacks by ISIS and possibly al Qaeda.
Archive
September forces
Pro-regime (6) seized Mayadin, the headquarters of ISIS senior leadership & external operations. Pro-regime forces claimed to
seize the(7)
August city on October 14th, although it is unclear whether ISIS withdrew preemptively. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi and other ISIS
senior leaders, including external operators, had reportedly relocated to Mayadin from Mosul and Raqqa in late 2016 and early 2017. They
July likely
most (5) relocated to Abu Kamal IVO the Syrian-Iraqi border. Pro-regime forces are now positioned to disrupt further SDF movements
along
June the
(8) Middle Euphrates River Valley (MERV) southeast of Raqqa City.
May (9)and the Syrian regime are preparing to cut a deal with the YPG that could oust the US from northeastern Syria. The Syrian
Russia
Kurdish YPG reportedly handed over the Conoco gas field in Deir ez Zour Province to the Syrian regime, which would most likely allow
April (10)
Russian contractors to operate it. The handover, which the Syrian regime claimed occurred, would be a first sign of a future deal between
March
the YPG(19)
and the Syrian regime for the governance of northeastern Syria, which ISW forecasted in September. Negotiations are already
underway
February for
(21)that deal, which could apply limits on US presence. A most dangerous possibility is that Russia and the Syrian regime will
demand a full withdrawal of US forces in Syria in return for a federal status and return of services to SDF-held areas. Russian Deputy
JanuaryMinister
Foreign (14) Mikhail Bogdanov met with senior officials of the YPGs political wing in Qamishli on the Syrian-Turkish border on October
18th. Russian Senator Ziyad Sabsabi of Chechnya later arrived in Qamishli on October 19th. Russia will reportedly host a conference
2016 (197)
regarding the Syrian Kurds at the Bassel al-Assad International Airport on the Syrian Coast on 10 NOV. Anonymous sources also claimed
that (289)
2015 Syrian National Security Bureau (NSB) Director Ali Mamlouk met with senior officials from the Syrian Kurdish YPG in Qamishli on
October 17th. The two sides allegedly discussed the post-conflict role of the YPG in Syria as well as the long-term presence of the U.S. in
2014 (291)
Northern Syria, although the YPGs political wing denied the meeting took place
2013 (82)
Turkey deployed to Idlib, but in coordination with al Qaeda. Turkish armed forces deployed to multiple locations in northern Idlib
Province beginning on October 13th in accordance with an agreement with Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the successor of al Qaedas Syrian
Recent Publications
affiliate. Turkey is exploiting US calls for Turkish action to constrain al Qaeda-held in Idlib and is instead posturing against the YPG, which
holds a canton north of Idlib Province. Turkeys deployment to Idlib positions Turkish troops on a second flank of the Kurdish canton,
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
setting conditions in Turkeys favor for future confrontation. Turkey is also positioning its troops as potential guarantors of its de-escalation
The "War afterwith
agreement ISIS" beginsand
Russia in Iraq
the Syrian regime Idlib Province. Turkeys deployment does not meaningfully constrain al Qaeda, and instead
limits U.S.
Catherine options in Idlib Province. Unconfirmed reports indicate Turkey has offered to help provide targeting intelligence to the U.S. to
Harris
eliminate high value al Qaeda leaders. High value target (HVT) strikes in Idlib could degrade senior al Qaeda leadership in Syria, but will not
Jessa "Rose" Dury-Agri
reverse al Qaedas ongoing and successful efforts to embed within Syrian society in Idlib and to govern through a network of local affiliates
Omer
and Kassim
proxies.
IRAQ
Peshmerga forces collapsed across most of the front line in Iraqs Disputed Internal Boundaries, ceding terrain to ISF and Iranian
proxies. The Kurdish retreat empowers Iran and could destabilize northern Iraq rather than unify the county. Iraq and Iran, through Qassem
Soleimani and Badr Organization leader Hadi al Amiri, demanded a Kurdish withdrawal from areas seized since 2014, starting with Kirkuk.
The Kurdish retreat is a win for both the central Iraqi government and Iran, whose proxies have seized new key terrain and consolidated
control over previously contested cities. Iran has downplayed the role of its proxies in order to legitimize them as instruments of the Iraqi
state. Western media coverage and statements from US officials have assisted Iran with this deception by denying the role of Iran's proxies
in Kirkuk.
2 of 17 27/10/2017, 02:45
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Archive
2016 (197)
2015
Iraqi(289)
forces began to push farther north on 20 OCT, raising fears of a push into Iraqi Kurdistan beyond the 2003 Kurdish front line.
Iraqi Counter Terrorism Services (CTS) and unspecified other Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) seized Ton Kubri, ten kilometers north of Dibis,
2014 (291)
Kirkuk Province and 40 KM southeast of Arbil, after clashing with Peshmerga forces.
2013 (82)
Kurdish populations now under the control of the Iraqi government and Iran's proxies may drive an insurgency. Civil unrest against
Iraqi forces and Iran's proxies began in Kirkuk and Khanaqin on October 18th. Prime minister Abadi reportedly ordered a handover of
Recent Publications
security in Kirkuk to local police, and early reports indicate Iraqi forces and Iran's proxies may have drawn back from Khanaqin in northern
Diyala. It is unclear whether these withdrawals will pacify the Kurdish population.
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
The
*A"War after version
previous ISIS" begins in post
of this Iraq incorrectly referred to Iraqi Kurdish concerns over an advance past the 2014 front line. Iraqi forces had
Catherine
already Harris
breached that front line on October 16, 2017 and began to push to the front line of the Kurdistan Regional Government's formal
boundaries on October 18, 2017.
Jessa "Rose" Dury-Agri
Omer Kassim
Posted by Institute for the Study of War at 12:24 PM
Labels: ABADI, Al Qaeda, Bogdanov, Iran, Iran Proxies, Iraq, IRGC, ISIS, Kirkuk, KRG, Kurdistan, PKK, Raqqa, Syria, YPG, YPJ
M o n d a y, O c t o b e r 1 6 , 2 0 1 7
Russia renewed its violent, indiscriminate air campaign against civilians in Western Syria in order to coerce groups opposed to the Bashar
al-Assad regime to accept a ceasefire or de-escalation zone in Idlib Province. Russia shifted its air campaign to target rebel-held terrain in
Idlib and Hama Provinces following an offensive launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) the successor of Syrian al Qaeda affiliate
Jabhat Fatah al-Sham in Northern Hama Province on September 19. The Russian Ministry of Defense launched an immediate
disinformation operation to present this shift in its air campaign as a legitimate series of strikes against extremist groups attempting to disrupt
a de-escalation zone in Idlib Province brokered by Russia, Turkey, and Iran on September 15. Russia nonetheless mounted a systematic
campaign of airstrikes against civilian infrastructure including hospitals, schools, power stations, and mosques as well as former U.S.-
backed rebel groups unaffiliated with HTS or al Qaeda. The strikes marked a return to the widespread punitive air campaigns Russia
previously directed against opposition-held terrain across Western Syria. Russia also employed advanced weapons systems to further inflict
violence against Idlib Province under the guise of counter-terrorism operations. The Russian Black Sea Fleets Permanent Mediterranean
Task Force launched Kalibr cruise missiles targeting Maarat al-Numan in Southern Idlib Province on September 22. Russia Tu-95MS Bear
strategic bombers later launched Kh-101 cruise missiles targeting the outskirts of Idlib City on September 26. Russias deliberate use of
3 of 17 27/10/2017, 02:45
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Canton on October 12 following earlier reconnaissance missions. Russia likely perceives an opportunity to exploit widening diplomatic
fissures between the U.S. and Turkey. Russia could thus attempt to use the de-escalation zone to compel Turkey into deeper albeit
temporary cooperation with Russia in Northwestern Syria at the expense of the United States.
The following graphic depicts ISWs assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks,
statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations
targeted by Russias air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. The graphic likely under-represents the extent of
the locations targeted in Eastern Syria, owing to a relative lack of activist reporting from that region.
High-Confidence Reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist
Archive
networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.
2017 (110)
Low-Confidence Reporting. ISW places low confidence in reports corroborated only by multiple secondary sources, including from local
October (11)
Syrian activist networks deemed credible or Syrian state-run media.
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
ISW Intelligence Summary: October 13-20,
2017
Iraq and Iran compel Kurdish withdrawal
from Kirku...
Russia Renews Targeting Civilians: August
14 Oct...
The "War after ISIS" begins in Iraq
Return of Signature Iranian Explosive Could
Signal...
Syria Situation Report: September 27 -
October 10,...
Moscow Seeks to Destabilize Increasingly
Vulnerabl...
Moscow Presses in the Mediterranean
Cascading Crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan
Russia Hedges in Iraqi Kurdistan
September (6)
August (7)
July (5)
Posted
June (8)by Institute for the Study of War at 6:36 PM
Labels: Al Qaeda, Cruise Missiles, Russia, Russian Airstrikes, Syria
May (9)
April (10)
March (19)
T h u r s d a y, O c t o b e r 1 2 , 2 0 1 7
February (21)
2015 (289)
This graphic marks the latest installment of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study
of War
2014 and Syria Direct. This graphic depicts significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from September 27 October 10, 2017. The
(291)
control of terrain represented on the graphic is accurate as of October 10, 2017.
2013 (82)
Special credit to Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for the text of this Syria SITREP Map.
Recent Publications
Catherine Harris
Omer Kassim
4 of 17 27/10/2017, 02:45
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Archive
2017 (110)
October (11)
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
ISW Intelligence Summary: October 13-20,
2017
Iraq and Iran compel Kurdish withdrawal
from Kirku...
Russia Renews Targeting Civilians: August
14 Oct...
The "War after ISIS" begins in Iraq
Return of Signature Iranian Explosive Could
Signal...
Syria Situation Report: September 27 -
October 10,...
Moscow Seeks to Destabilize Increasingly
Vulnerabl...
Moscow Presses in the Mediterranean
Cascading Crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan
Russia Hedges in Iraqi Kurdistan
September (6)
August (7)
July (5)
April (10)
March (19)
Tu e s d a y, O c t o b e r 1 0 , 2 0 1 7
February (21)
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Archive
2017 (110)
October (11)
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
ISW Intelligence Summary: October 13-20,
2017
Iraq and Iran compel Kurdish withdrawal
from Kirku...
Russia Renews Targeting Civilians: August
14 Oct...
The "War after ISIS" begins in Iraq
Return of Signature Iranian Explosive Could
Signal...
Syria Situation Report: September 27 -
October 10,...
[1] Russian Forces Try Out Air, Sea-based Missiles on Syrian Battlefield for First Time, TASS Russian News Agency, August 25, 2017,
Moscow Seeks to Destabilize Increasingly
http://tass(.)com/defense/962021
Vulnerabl...
[2] Newest Kolpino and Velikiy Novgorod Submarines of the Black Sea Fleet Reached the Mediterranean Sea, Russian Ministry of
Moscow Presses
Defense, in the
August 28, Mediterranean
2017, http://eng.mil(.)ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12140110@egNews
[3] Two Russian
Cascading Crisis inSubs
Iraqi Attack Islamic State in Syria with Kalibr Cruise Missiles, TASS Russian News Agency, September 14, 2017,
Kurdistan
http://tass(.)com/defense/965616 ; Veliky Novgorod and Kolpino Submarines Fired the Kalibr Cruise Missiles from Submerged Position
Russia Hedges in Iraqi Kurdistan
Against ISIS Critical Objects in Syria, Russian Ministry of Defense, September 14, 2017, http://eng.mil(.)ru/en/news_page/country
/more.htm?id=12142271@egNews
September (6)
[4] Jeremy Binny and Sean OConnor, Second Russian S-400 in Syria Confirmed, HIS Janes Defence Weekly, September 29, 2017,
August (7)
http://www.janes.com/article/74500/second-russian-s-400-in-syria-confirmed
[5] Russias
July (5) Admiral Grigorovich Frigate Sails to Mediterranean Sea, TASS Russian News Agency, September 25, 2017, http://tass(.)com
/defense/967331 ; [Frigate Admiral Grigorovich Left the Greek Port of Kerkyra], RIA Novosti, October 1, 2017, https://ria(.)ru
June (8)
/defense_safety/20171001/1505950486.html
[6]
May [Russian
(9) Frigate Admiral Grigorovich has Returned from a Campaign in the Mediterranean], Interfax.RU, October 4, 2017,
http://www.interfax(.)ru/russia/581685
April (10)
[7] [The Newest Frigate of the Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Grigorovic, Arrived in Sevastopol], Russian Ministry of Defense, June 10, 2016,
http://function.mil(.)ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12087043@egNews
March (19) ; [Frigate of the Black Sea Fleet Admiral Grigorovich Arrives
on the Greek Island of Corfu], Russian Ministry of Defense, September 28, 2016, http://function.mil(.)ru/news_page/country
February (21)
/more.htm?id=12097268@egNews ; [Frigate Admiral Grigorovich Black Sea Fleet Will Leave Greece After Participating in the Russian
Week
Januaryon(14)the Ionian Islands], Russian Ministry of Defense, October 3, 2016, http://function.mil(.)ru/news_page/country
/more.htm?id=12098260@egNews ; [The Newest Frigate of the Black Sea Fleet Admiral Grigorovich returned to Sevastopol from the
Mediterranean
2016 (197) Sea], Russian Ministry of Defense, December 19, 2016, http://function.mil(.)ru/news_page/country
/more.htm?id=12106640@egNews ; [Frigate of the Black Sea Fleet Admiral Grigorovich left Sevastopol in the Mediterranean Sea],
2015 (289)
Russian Ministry of Defense, February 27, 2017, http://function.mil(.)ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12113035@egNews ; Russian
Frigate
2014 Heads to Mediterranean on Syria Mission Source, Reuters, February 27, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-
(291)
russia-navy/russian-frigate-heads-to-mediterranean-on-syria-mission-source-idUSKBN166177 ; Russian Missile Frigate Returns to
2013 (82)
Mediterranean, RT, April 8, 2017, https://www.rt(.)com/news/384022-russian-missile-frigate-mediterranean-syria/ ; [Frigate of the Black Sea
Fleet Admiral Grigorovich Arrived in Sevastopol from the Mediterranean Sea], Russian Ministry of Defense, July 12, 2017,
http://function.mil(.)ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12133028@egNews
Recent Publications
[8] Charles Frattini III and Genevieve Casagrande, Russias Mediterranean Threat to NATO, Institute for the Study of War, July 13, 2017,
http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2017/07/russias-med-threat-to-nato.html.
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
Jessa "Rose"
Labels: Dury-Agri
A2AD, air defense, Cruise Missiles, HTS, ISIS, Latakia, Mediterranean, Russia, Syria, tartous
Omer Kassim
T h u r s d a y, S e p t e m b e r 2 8 , 2 0 1 7
This graphic marks the latest installment of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study
of War and Syria Direct. This graphic depicts significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from September 14 - 27, 2017. The control of
terrain represented on the graphic is accurate as of September 14, 2017.
Special credit to Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for the text of this Syria SITREP.
6 of 17 27/10/2017, 02:45
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Archive
2017 (110)
October (11)
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
ISW Intelligence Summary: October 13-20,
2017
Iraq and Iran compel Kurdish withdrawal
from Kirku...
Russia Renews Targeting Civilians: August
14 Oct...
The "War after ISIS" begins in Iraq
Return of Signature Iranian Explosive Could
Signal...
Syria Situation Report: September 27 -
October 10,...
Moscow Seeks to Destabilize Increasingly
Vulnerabl...
Moscow Presses in the Mediterranean
Cascading Crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan
Russia Hedges in Iraqi Kurdistan
September (6)
August (7)
July (5)
April (10)
March (19)
W e d n e s d a y, S e p t e m b e r 2 7 , 2 0 1 7
February (21)
The Russo-Iranian Coalition will likely intensify its efforts to constrain and block the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition in Eastern Syria. Pro-regime
forces will likely launch new cross-river operations to deny key oil fields and population centers to the SDF along the Euphrates River Valley.
Russia has already established at least one fixed pontoon bridge across the Euphrates River near Deir ez-Zour City. The Russo-Iranian
Coalition will likely deploy additional capabilities including anti-aircraft systems to Deir ez-Zour City to further constrain the U.S. Anti-ISIS
Coalition. The Russo-Iranian Coalition will also likely bolster its efforts to coopt Iraq into a joint offensive against ISIS in Albu Kamal and Al-
Qaim on the Syrian-Iraqi Border that excludes the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition. This operation could include cross-border operations by Iraqi
Shia Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) backed by Iran. The Russo-Iranian Coalition and Iraqi Security Forces have already begun
synchronized ground operations to clear ISIS from the Syrian-Iraqi Border on September 16. Russia and Iran stand to gain a sustained
forward presence to exert influence over Iraq and Jordan via Eastern Syria. The mounting competition on the ground will also likely distract
all actors from their ostensible shared objective the defeat of ISIS in Deir ez-Zour Province. ISIS thus stands to retain at least limited safe
haven for the foreseeable future along the Middle Euphrates River Valley.
Labels: anti-ISIS coalition, Deir ez-Zour, Dera'a. Deir ez-Zour, Iran, ISIS, Russia, Russo-Iranian Coalition, Syria, Syrian Regime
7 of 17 27/10/2017, 02:45
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Special credit to Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for the text of this Syria SITREP Map.
Archive
2017 (110)
October (11)
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
ISW Intelligence Summary: October 13-20,
2017
Iraq and Iran compel Kurdish withdrawal
from Kirku...
Russia Renews Targeting Civilians: August
14 Oct...
The "War after ISIS" begins in Iraq
Return of Signature Iranian Explosive Could
Signal...
Syria Situation Report: September 27 -
October 10,...
Moscow Seeks to Destabilize Increasingly
Vulnerabl...
Moscow Presses in the Mediterranean
Cascading Crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan
Russia Hedges in Iraqi Kurdistan
September (6)
August (7)
July (5)
June (8)
May (9)
April (10)
March (19)
February (21)
January (14)
2016 (197)
2015 (289)
Recent Publications
F r i d a y, S e p t e m b e r 1 , 2 0 1 7
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
Catherine Harris
Jessa "Rose" Dury-Agri By: ISW Syria Team and Syria Direct
Omer Kassim
This graphic marks the latest installment of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study
of War and Syria Direct. This graphic depicts significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from August 23 - 30, 2017. The control of
terrain represented on the graphic is accurate as of August 8, 2017.
Special credit to Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for the text of these Syria SITREP Maps.
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Archive
2017 (110)
October (11)
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
ISW Intelligence Summary: October 13-20,
2017
Iraq and Iran compel Kurdish withdrawal
from Kirku...
Russia Renews Targeting Civilians: August
14 Oct...
The "War after ISIS" begins in Iraq
Return of Signature Iranian Explosive Could
Signal...
Syria Situation Report: September 27 -
October 10,...
Moscow Seeks to Destabilize Increasingly
Vulnerabl...
Moscow Presses in the Mediterranean
Cascading Crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan
Russia Hedges in Iraqi Kurdistan
September (6)
August (7)
July (5)
Posted by Institute for the Study of War at 5:50 PM
June (8)
Labels: Aleppo City, Deir ez-Zour, Hama, HTS, Idlib, ISIS, Lebanon, Raqqa, Russia, SDF, Syria, Syria SITREP Map
May (9)
April (10)
FMarch
r i d a(19)
y, A u g u s t 2 5 , 2 0 1 7
February (21)
Syria Situation Report: August 8 - 23, 2017
January (14)
By: ISW Syria Team and Syria Direct
2016 (197)
This(289)
2015 series of graphics marks the latest installments of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for
the Study of War and Syria Direct. These graphics depict significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from August 8 - 23, 2017. The
2014 (291)
control of terrain represented on the graphics is accurate as of August 8, 2017.
2013 (82)
Special credit to Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for her contributions to the text of these Syria SITREP Maps.
Recent Publications
Catherine Harris
Omer Kassim
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Archive
2017 (110)
October (11)
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
ISW Intelligence Summary: October 13-20,
2017
Iraq and Iran compel Kurdish withdrawal
from Kirku...
Russia Renews Targeting Civilians: August
14 Oct...
The "War after ISIS" begins in Iraq
Return of Signature Iranian Explosive Could
Signal...
Syria Situation Report: September 27 -
October 10,...
Moscow Seeks to Destabilize Increasingly
Vulnerabl...
Moscow Presses in the Mediterranean
Cascading Crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan
Russia Hedges in Iraqi Kurdistan
September (6)
August (7)
July (5)
June (8)
May (9)
April (10)
March (19)
February (21)
January (14)
2016 (197)
2015 (289)
2014 (291)
2013 (82)
Recent Publications
Catherine Harris
Omer Kassim
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Archive
2017 (110)
October (11)
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
ISW Intelligence Summary: October 13-20,
2017
Iraq and Iran compel Kurdish withdrawal
from Kirku...
Russia Renews Targeting Civilians: August
14 Oct...
The "War after ISIS" begins in Iraq
Return of Signature Iranian Explosive Could
Signal...
Syria Situation Report: September 27 -
October 10,...
Moscow Seeks to Destabilize Increasingly
Vulnerabl...
Moscow Presses in the Mediterranean
Cascading Crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan
Russia Hedges in Iraqi Kurdistan
September (6)
August (7)
July (5)
June (8)
May (9)
April (10)
Posted(19)
March by Institute for the Study of War at 1:33 PM
Labels: anti-ISIS coalition, Cruise Missiles, Damascus, Dera'a, Homs, Idlib, ISIS, NATO, Raqqa, Russia, Syria, Syria SITREP Map, YPG
February (21)
January (14)
2016
W e(197)
d n e s d a y, A u g u s t 1 6 , 2 0 1 7
2015 (289)
2014 (291)
Russia's Syria Mirage: July 17 - August 13, 2017
2013 (82) By Matti Suomenaro, Ellen Stockert, and Genevieve Casagrande
Russia continues to masquerade as an effective anti-ISIS actor in order to lure the U.S. into a counter-terrorism partnership in Syria. Russia
Recent Publications
seeks to leverage this partnership to expedite an American withdrawal from Syria, removing the U.S. as an obstacle to continued Russian
build up and force projection in the Middle East. Russia may achieve short-term territorial gains against ISIS, but will ultimately undermine
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
U.S.-led anti-ISIS efforts in Eastern Syria. The Russian-backed campaign will fail to decisively defeat ISIS and al Qaeda in Syria, however.
The "War after
Russian ISIS" in
airstrikes begins in Iraq
ISIS-held terrain regularly targeted civilian infrastructure such as mosques, schools, and medical centers from July 17 -
August 13,
Catherine according to local activists. Russian airstrikes also reportedly targeted an internally-displaced persons (IDP) camp in Zour
Harris
Shamar in Eastern Raqqa province on July 23 - 24. Russias punitive strikes against vulnerable Sunni populations will exacerbate local
Jessa "Rose" Dury-Agri
grievances, increase sectarian tension, and pave the way for the resurgence of ISIS, al Qaeda, and other jihadist groups in areas recently
Omer Kassim
seized from ISIS. Moreover, pro-Bashar al Assad regime forces rapid advance in Eastern Syria may indicate the regime is not allocating
sufficient time or manpower to conduct effective clearing operations. Incomplete clearing operations could permit ISIS to leave behind latent
attack cells or create ISIS-permissive zones along the Euphrates River Valley. The pro-regime coalition currently lacks the manpower
required to secure and hold these areas in the long-term.
Iran and the Assad regime are already exploiting nascent U.S.-Russian cooperation to expand their control into Eastern Syria at the expense
of the U.S. and its partners. Russian airstrikes primarily targeted ISIS-held areas from July 17 - August 13 in support of Iranian and Assad
regime advances. Pro-regime forces backed by Russia and Iran recaptured Sukhna, which sits on the Palmyra - Deir ez Zour Highway, from
ISIS on August 13 following a wave of ISIS counterattacks against the city from August 8 - 10. Russian airstrikes also targeted villages along
the southern bank of of the Euphrates River in southeastern Raqqa Province, allowing the recapture of al Numaysah, al Jaber, and al
Kumaysah towns by pro-Iranian and regime forces. These gains were facilitated by manpower freed from recent de-escalation zones
brokered by Russia in Southwest Syria, the Eastern Ghouta suburb of Damascus, and northwestern Homs Province. Russia, Iran and Assad
seek to leverage these gains to constrain the freedom of action of the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition in Syria. Pro-regime positioning along the
Euphrates River could block the advancement of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) southeast from Ar-Raqqa City after the
completion of Ar-Raqqa City clearing operations. Russias gains against ISIS in Syrias East will ultimately embolden Iran and the Bashar al
Assad regime, rather than constrain them.
The following graphic depicts ISWs assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks,
statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations
targeted by Russias air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. The graphic likely under-represents the extent of
the locations targeted in Eastern Syria, owing to a relative lack of activist reporting from that region.
High-Confidence Reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist
networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.
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Moscow Seeks to Destabilize Increasingly
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Moscow Presses in the Mediterranean
Cascading Crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan
Russia Hedges in Iraqi Kurdistan
CORRECTION: A previous version of this blogpost stated Russian airstrikes targeted an IDP camp in Raqqa Province on August 23-24. The
September
correct (6) the reported Russian strikes is July 23-34.
date for
August (7)
Posted by Institute for the Study of War at 2:50 PM
July (5)
Labels: anti-ISIS coalition, Ar-raqqa, ceasefire, Deir ez-Zour, Euphrates River Valley, ISIS, Russia, Russian Airstrikes, Russo-Iranian
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By ISW Syria Team and Syria Direct
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2015 series of graphics marks the latest installments of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for
the Study of War and Syria Direct. These graphics depict significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from July 27 to August 9, 2017.
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The control of terrain represented on the graphics is accurate as of August 8, 2017.
2013 (82)
Special credit to Matti Suomenaro and Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for their contributions to the text and graphics of
this series of Syria SITREP Maps.
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The "War after ISIS" begins in Iraq
This series
Catherine of graphics marks the latest installments of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for
Harris
the Study of War and Syria Direct. These graphics depict significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from June 29 to July 27, 2017. The
Jessa "Rose" Dury-Agri
control of terrain represented on the graphics is accurate as of July 6 or July 16, 2017.
Omer Kassim
Special credit to Matti Suomenaro and Sana Sekkarie of the Institute for the Study of War for their contributions to the text and graphics of
this series of Syria SITREP Maps.
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Key Takeaway: The U.S., Russia, Jordan de-escalation zone in Southwest Syria advances the interests of U.S. enemies and adversaries,
including Iran and al Qaeda. The U.S. likely sought to leverage the agreement to drive a wedge within the Russo-Iranian Coalition, while
reducing violence and testing a potential partnership with Russia to improve security in Syria. The deal has temporarily reduced violence, but
at great cost to long-term U.S. interests in Syria. The Russo-Iranian coalition is exploiting the agreement to consolidate in the south. Al
Qaeda will likewise leverage the deal and the recent cut to U.S. support to vetted Syrian opposition groups to preserve and expand its
influence in Southern Syria.
The de-escalation zone brokered by the U.S., Russia, and Jordan does not meaningfully constrain Iranian build up in Southern
Syria and along the Golan Heights. The deal is rumored to include an exclusionary zone that requires Iranian and other non-Syrian
Archive
forces to maintain a 30-40 KM distance from the Jordanian border. Iran and Hezbollah flaunted a large re-deployment away from frontlines in
2017 (110)
Deraa City immediately after the de-escalation zone went into effect on July 9 in order to falsely demonstrate Iranian commitment to such an
exclusionary
October (11)zone to the United States. Most of the pro-Iranian forces relocated to areas just outside the exclusionary zone including in the
town of Sanamayn located approximately 50 KM from the Jordanian border and to areas just outside Deraa City, such as Athman.
Syria Situation Report: October 10 - 24, 2017
Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian forces retained many of their longstanding positions within the de-escalation zone and likely maintain some
ISW Intelligence
latent Summary:
forces within October
Deraa City, itself. 13-20,
Notably, the deal did not affect the historic pro-Iranian build up on the Golan Heights, a concern voiced
2017
by Israel in the weeks following the ceasefire. Iranian and pro-regime capabilities in the south remain largely unchanged. These local re-
Iraq and Iran compel Kurdish withdrawal
deployments and troop rotations still allow for Iran to quickly re-deploy to frontlines against anti-Assad forces as necessary.
from Kirku...
Russia
The Renews Targeting
de-escalation Civilians: August
zone agreement secures the freedom of movement of Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime at the expense of U.S.
14 Oct...
partners. The deal has allowed Iran to temporarily shift assets away from previously contested frontlines like Deraa City to reinforce other
active
The "Warfronts against
after the U.S.
ISIS" begins in and
Iraq partnered forces. Pro-Iranian and regime forces with Russian air support launched operations against
historically U.S.-backed opposition groups in Northern Suwayda and Eastern Rif Dimashq Provinces following the start of the ceasefire. The
Return of Signature Iranian Explosive Could
dealSignal...
has freed up the pro-Assad coalition to continue to further project force into Eastern Syria. Pro-regime forces backed by Russia and Iran
advanced to the outskirts of Sukhna along the ground line of communication (GLOC) between Palmyra and Deir ez Zour City on July 28.
Syria Situation Report: September 27 -
Iran,October
Assad,10,...
and Russia seek to reopen this GLOC to besieged regime-held areas of Deir ez Zour. These advances would ultimately
constrain the freedom of action of the U.S.-led Anti-ISIS coalition in Eastern Syria and could block further advances by the U.S.-backed
Moscow Seeks to Destabilize Increasingly
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) along the Euphrates River Valley.
Vulnerabl...
Moscow build
Russian Presses
upinalong
the Mediterranean
the frontline stands to deepen the Russo-Iranian coalitions penetration in Southern Syria. The deal lacks a
Cascadingneutral
legitimate, Crisis inenforcement
Iraqi Kurdistan
mechanism and primarily relies upon Russian, Chechen, and Ingush forces to guarantee the agreement
along
Russiathe line ofincontact
Hedges between regime and opposition forces. Russia cannot and will not restrain Iran and Assad. Russia deployed
Iraqi Kurdistan
hundreds of military police including Ingush units to man observation points along the line of contact. The Russian force is positioned to
protect -- not(6)
September push back -- Iranian positions within this zone.
August (7)
The ceasefire deal allows al Qaeda to preserve its strength and expand its influence in Southern Syria. Al Qaeda had begun to
reinvigorate
July (5) its campaign to transform the Syrian opposition in its own image prior to the declaration of the de-escalation zone. Al Qaeda
dispatched approximately thirty senior officials to Southern Syria in May 2017. Al Qaeda likely seeks to replicate its recent success in Idlib
June (8)
Province in the South. The ceasefire deal will provide Al Qaeda with time and space to further network itself within the opposition, including
through
May (9)local governance and security structures. U.S. President Donald Trumps decision to halt some covert support to vetted opposition
groups in Western Syria will only accelerate al Qaedas potential rise in the south. Syrian rebels have expressed dissatisfaction over U.S.
April (10)
demands to abandon the fight against President Assad and decreased U.S. support to rebels. Al Qaeda will exploit these grievances and
attempt to fill the vacuum. Al Qaeda will position itself to eventually spoil the agreement, but will do so in a timeframe that supports its own
March (19)
interests.
February (21)
January (14)
Special credit to Matti Suomenaro and Sana Sekkarie for their research contributions to this publication.
2016 (197)
2015 (289)
2014 (291)
2013 (82)
Recent Publications
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Omer Kassim
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ISW Intelligence Summary: October 13-20,
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2013
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Omer Kassim
Posted by Institute for the Study of War at 10:48 PM
Labels: Al Qaeda, ceasefire, Chechen, Deir ez-Zour, Dera'a, Iran, Jordan, Russia, Russian Airstrikes, Russo-Iranian Coalition, Southern
Front, suwayda, Syria, Syrian Democratic Forces
17 of 17 27/10/2017, 02:45