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  • 2014.02.25 - No Quick Fix For Cyprus

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    juliabhaber
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    Publisher: Hurriyet daily news "My work on Cyprus was cited in the prestigious Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet." -George Papadopoulos' LinkedIn Profile

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    2014.02.25 - No Quick Fix for Cyprus

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    Publisher: Hurriyet daily news "My work on Cyprus was cited in the prestigious Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet." -George Papadopoulos' LinkedIn Profile

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Scarica in formato PDF, TXT o leggi online su Scribd
    Segnala contenuti inappropriati
    21 visualizzazioni1 pagina

    2014.02.25 - No Quick Fix For Cyprus

    Caricato da

    juliabhaber
    Publisher: Hurriyet daily news "My work on Cyprus was cited in the prestigious Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet." -George Papadopoulos' LinkedIn Profile

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Scarica in formato PDF, TXT o leggi online su Scribd
    Segnala contenuti inappropriati
    di 1

    LEADINGNEWSSOURCEFORTURKEYANDTHEREGION

    HOME TURKEY ECONOMY WORLD SPORTS LIFE ARTS/CULTURE OPINION VIDEO PHOTO

    NoquickfixforCyprus
    ROBERTELLIS

    BillieHolidaysWhataLittleMoonlightCanDoisapopularevergreen,butnowthereisanupdateintheEasternMediterranean:
    WhataLittleGasCanDo.

    AfterJohnKerrywastakenoffbalancebySergeiLavrovoverSyriaschemicalweapons,theU.S.issearchingforacomebackand
    Cyprusseemstofitthebill.Notthatasolutiontothe50yearoldconflicthasanyintrinsicvaluefortheAmericans,butbecauseitis
    akeytounlockingthevastgasandoilreservesintheLevantBasin.

    In2003,whentheissuewasthepassageofAmericantroopsthroughTurkeytonorthernIraq,theU.S.offeredTurkeytwo
    incentives,severalbilliondollarsingrantsandloansandCyprus,intheformoftheAnnanPlan.Now,withanewagenda,theU.S.
    hasasecondbiteattheappleasfacilitatorforthestartofanew,andhopefullyfinal,roundofunificationtalks.

    Theotherday,afterasixmonthsilence,PresidentObamahadalengthyphoneconversationwithhischumandmodelpartner,
    PrimeMinisterErdoan.Inadiscussionofregionalandbilateralissues,thepresidentthankedMr.Erdoanfor,hisconstructiverole
    intheeffortonCyprustorenewnegotiationsforasettlement.

    AttheendofJanuary,GeorgePapadopoulos,seniorconsultantattheHudsonInstitute,arguedinArutzShevathattheU.S.should
    leverageitsgrowingmilitarytieswithbothIsraelandGreecetorepelRussiansgrowinginfluenceintheregion.Inhisview,the
    discoveryofthemassivegasandoildepositscreatesanaturalnexusforanintegratedenergyzonebetweenJerusalem,Nicosiaand
    Athens,whichtheU.S.candevelopasafoundationforamilitarypact.

    AccordingtoPapadopoulos,theriseoftheAKPanditsforeignpolicieshavefracturedthefoundationofU.S.policyintheEastern
    MediterraneanandcreatedavacuumforthereturnofRussiaasagreatpower.

    Nevertheless,MatthewBryza,formerU.S.ambassadortoAzerbaijanandnowboardmemberoftheTurcasEnergygroup,arguesin
    Bloombergfortheconstructionofa292milepipelinefromIsraelsLeviathanfieldtoCeyhaninsouthernTurkeyasthefixtoresolve
    thestandoffbetweenIsraelandTurkey.

    Atthesametime,BryzasuggeststheexcessgasfromtheLeviathanfieldcanbedivertedtoCyprustomaketheconstructionofan
    LNGterminalatVassilikosfinanciallyviable.Atpresent,thisprojecthasbeenshelvedbecauseofinsufficientreservesinCypruss
    Aphroditefield.

    ThemajorobstacletoadtentebetweenTurkeyandIsraelistheunresolvedMaviMarmaraissueandErdoansinsistence
    thatIsraelfirstendsitsGazaembargo.Bryzarecognizesanoverallsolution,includingtheCyprusquestion,willrequireintricate
    diplomaticchoreography,butbelievestheU.S.hasaroletoplay.

    Cyprushasbaseditshopesofeconomicrecoveryontheexploitationofitshydrocarbonresources,butthatpathisfraughtwith
    difficulty.Oneprerequisiteisasatisfactoryoutcometoreunificationtalks,toavoidaconflictwithTurkeyovertheexploitationofthe
    islandsenergyresources.AsanIsraelTurkeypipelinewillpassthroughCyprussEEZ,thiswillalsoentailCyprusscompliance.

    However,furtherexploratoryandappraisaldrillingwillhavetotakeplaceintheAphroditefieldbeforeitcanbeascertainedwhether
    thereisacrediblebasisforinvestinginasingleLNGtraintoVassilikos.Irrespectiveoftheoutcome,additionalIsraeligaswillonly
    strengthentheviabilityoftheproject.

    EnergyspecialistDr.TheodorosTsakaris,inananalysisofTurkishIsraelirelationsandthestrategicenergycalculations
    ofGreeceandCyprus,mentionsthatthepoliticalriskfactorwillplayaprominentroleinthedecisionsmadebybothgovernments
    andcompanies.ApositiveoutcometotheCyprustalkscanonlyreducethisfactor.

    RobertEllisisaregularcommentatoronTurkishaffairsintheDanishandinternationalpress.
    February/25/2014

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