ANALYSIS: After Sabratha battle, scramble for

western Libya is on
With the victory of militia aligned with Khalifa Haftar and Salafi fighters, Sabratha
residents anxious over who will take control of their city next

Empty cartridges on the street of Sabratha after three weeks of fighting ended
earlier this month (AFP)

Francesca Mannocchi-Thursday 26 October 2017

When a multi-million dollar Italian effort to stem migration from western Libya
backfired and fuelled deadly clashes earlier this month, it brought together an
odd set of alliances which could reshape the future of the country.
As the dust settles around Sabratha, perhaps the oddest alliance formed during
the fighting is that between General Khalifa Haftar, the strongman whose self-
styled Libyan National Army (LNA) has been fighting Islamists and others in the
east, with the Al-Wadi Brigade, a local militia in the west formed of Salafi fighters.
If defeating the Dabashi militia will bring other fundamentalists masked by armed
forces here at Sabratha, the situation could become very dangerous
- Fasi, resident of Sabratha
The war will not stop until those groups hand over their weapons, release
arrested people for blackmail and hand over foreign fighters who are fighting with
them, Haftar said on 3 Octoberannouncing his involvement.
Residents say they are watching these alliances closely. Since the start of the war
in 2011, they have seen their city trade hands several times, at one time falling
under the control of the Islamic State group.
Having lived through years of fighting and air strikes, they are anxious to see
which group will take control of the area and who, they believe, will become the
interlocutor of Western governments, receiving weapons and money.
A house in Sabratha damaged during the three weeks of fighting that ended
earlier this month (AFP)
"We have lived through years of insecurity," said Fasi, a Sabratha resident who did
not want to provide his last name for security reasons.
A growing number of people have realised that militias are just dangerous and
they have started to put more faith in strong men like Haftar.
But which groups, Fasi asked, will these strong men bring in the end?
Standstill to standoff
Until two months ago, Sabratha was Libyas capital of human trafficking, a
widespread and lucrative trade among many Libyan gangs and militias.
This changed, however, in late August when trade came to a standstill after
armed groups which had been profiting off migration started to stop boats from
leaving the country in exchange for aid, aircraft hangars and five million euros
from Italy, Libyan security officials told Middle East Eye. The Italians have denied
the account.

Locals sources, however, say the Italian payoffs fed tensions between the paid
militias the Dabashi clan and Brigade 48, both affiliated with the UN-backed
government - and other groups still attempting to profit off migrants.
"This war began as a war between traffickers, then became an ideological and
political war," said al-Tahar al-Gharabili, head of the Sabratha military council
which is under the control of the UN-backed government.
READ MORE
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During the first week of October, Dabashi and Brigade 48 fought against the
Operation Room the anti-Islamic State coalition in the area backed by the Al-
Wadi Brigade.
By 6 October, when the Operation Room claimed victory and said it had captured
Sabratha, at least 30 people had been killed (with some reporting nearly 100) and
around 150 were wounded.
Competing interests
With its victory, observers say the Operation Room has been trying to portray
itself to Western powers as the only security force capable of maintaining order in
the country.
Currently, the Operation Room is not trying to appear like just another militia a
replacement to the Dabashi militia but as a new police force and a new army,
replacing the militias altogether, said Mattia Toaldo, a senior policy fellow with
the European Council on Foreign Relation in London.
This war began as a war between traffickers, then became an ideological and
political war
- Tahar al-Gharabili, head of Sabratha military council
Haftar, he added, has made giant strides in recent months and now has France
and Italy competing for his favour.
A week after the battle ended, Haftar recorded a video, posted on his Operation
Dignity's general command, saying that his forces control the coastal area
between Zuwara and Zawiya, with Sabratha in the middle. He also added that
they would seize Zawiya city - a few kilometres from Tripoli - in the coming days.
 Haftar
attends General Security conference in Benghazi on 14 October 2017 (Reuters)
"Only the next few weeks will tell us whether the attempt of the Operation Room
is to present itself not as another militia that can be bought with five million
euros, but as an army with political legitimacy and the one able to receive
weapons and power in the future, said Toaldo.
One of the ways they have attempted to present this image, Toaldo said, was by
theatrically inviting the media into the illegal detention centres run by the
Dabashi militia, and showing them the thousands of migrants being held there.
The outcomes of the Sabratha fight have also revealed some contradictions in the
field. The Al-Wadi Brigade, said analysts, is a striking example.
The force is made up of Madkhalist Salafis, followers of the Saudi Sheikh Rabi al-
Madkhali who preaches the emulation of the life of the Prophet.
The Operation Room 'has been very careful' to stay neutral between Serraj and
Haftar in recent weeks, but its no secret that it has good relations with the Al-
Wadi Brigade and Haftar, said one analyst
Under Muammar Gaddafis regime, the group was allowed to remain active
because it rejected elections and democracy and called for obedience towards
authority, according to analyst Ahmed Sala Ali writing in June for the Atlantic
Council.
When Haftar launched Operation Dignity, his campaign to defeat militants in
Benghazi in 2014, al-Madkhali issued a fatwa calling on his followers to support
the renegade general against the Muslim Brotherhood which he called the evil
from Gaddafi.
But their alliances may be more strategic than ideological, said analysts.
"The Madkhalite Salafists in Libya always go where the power lies, Toaldo said.
They support Haftar in the east, but also [prime minister of the UN-backed
government Fayez al-] Serraj in Tripoli and, in the war to liberate Sirte from IS,
they were technically independent but came under Misrata forces.

Prime
Minister of the UN-backed Libyan government Fayez al-Serraj attends the Human
Rights Council in Geneva earlier this year (Reuters)
While the Operation Room which they supported has been very careful to stay
neutral between Serraj and Haftar in recent weeks, Toaldo said its no secret that
it has good relations with the Al-Wadi Brigade and Haftar.
Equally, Haftars alliance with the fighters reveals contradictions in his narrative,
writes Ali.
The general may denounce his opponents as "takfiri terrorists and Kharijites" and
accuses his opponents of employing political Islam, embracing the Muslim
Brotherhood, IS and Ansar al-Sharia, but "he also has strong ties to Salafist
organisations that are part of the forces fighting under his command in Barqa in
eastern Libya".
'Life has become a hell'
As the constellation of militia alliances shifts, the latest battle over Sabratha is just
another chapter of being caught in the middle of armed militias vying for power
and influence, said Fasi, the Sabratha resident.
In the beginning of the war, he said, the militias were only engaging in illegal
trafficking. But increasingly, they realised that they needed to become part of
local governing structures to provide coverage and political support for their
projects and elicit affairs, including trafficking
Since then, our life has become a hell, he said.
Its not only residents caught in the middle, but also thousands of migrants who
were displaced and found trapped in camps after the militias paid by the Italians
stopped their boats.

Migrants, who were detained by UN-backed Government of National Accord

(GNA) during recent clashes in the city, are gathered in a shelter in Sabratha on 7
October 2017 and moved to other shelters in the country (AFP)
An estimated 5,800 returned during the Sabratha fighting are now in detention
centres which are notorious for widespread abuse and poor conditions.
Is there more fighting to come? Will Haftar in alliance with the Operation Room
and the Al-Wadi Brigades - take control of the west of Libya?
Sabrathas military war is over, Fasi said, but the diplomatic war has just
begun.
Haftar, he said, has realised that Western governments are increasingly dubious
about backing militias and want someone like him in charge but thats not
necessarily what locals want.
READ MORE
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There are other dangers around the corner because the Wadi Brigades are
dangerous people they want to control the religious and public life of the
country as they do in Cirenaica, he said, referring to eastern Libya where Haftar's
forces are in control.
If defeating the Dabashi militia will bring other fundamentalists masked by
armed forces here at Sabratha, the situation could become very dangerous. It will
be the beginning of the next civil war."
Posted by Thavam