The RightShip Qi

Predictive Model
INTERCARGO, March 2017
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What is predictive analysis?

Technology that learns from experience (data) to predict the future
behaviour of vessels in order to drive better decisions.

What are we trying The likelihood of

to predict? an incident in the
next 12 months
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Learn from other industries

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And apply it to our own

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Qi star rating inputs

Regulator Risk Age Risk

Casualties Risk Type Risk

Vessel port state control (PSC) Risk DOC PSC Risk

Builder Risk Continuity Risk

Size Risk

Note: Regulator Risk models the interaction between the Classification Society & Flag State
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Combining the inputs with machine learning

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Measuring Predictive Performance

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Model - independent verification

Elder Research Andrew Fast, PhD

Overall, the results of our evaluation showed that the Qi model

meets or exceeds industry standards in the areas of suitability,
reproducibility, performance and stability. RightShip has developed
a powerful data pipeline which provides a strong foundation for the
Qi model both now and in the future

Statistician & Maritime Risk Consultant - Dan Brooks, PhD

this review found the model and its documentation to be

methodologically based using the data that is appropriate for the
purposes of its application, the validation steps showed that the
model behaved well and provided results that were of a quality
level that would aid vetters in their roles evaluating the relative
chances of experiencing casualties in shipping.
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Are we on the RightTrack? 2014

Proposed Star Rating Vessel Count 2014 Casualties 2014 Casualty Rate

1 2425 210 7.9%

2 9425 413 4.0%

3 16433 353 2.1%

4 16653 185 1.1%

5 15498 89 0.57%

16 times!
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2015 model performance

Proposed Star Rating Vessel Count 2015 Casualties 2015 Casualty Rate

1 3514 219 6.2%

2 11309 328 2.9%

3 19242 311 1.6%

4 19680 166 0.8%

5 8009 23 0.3%

19 fold casualty differential between 1 & 5 star vessels!

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Continuous improvement
Model Version AUC Score
SVIS Classic (un-optimised but weighted) 0.61

SVIS Classic (Optimised & weighted) 0.66

Qi Mark I (hybrid predictive model) 0.70

Qi Mark V (removed confounding factors) 0.72

Qi Mark X (inclusion of DOC) 0.73

Qi Mark XV (Pre IBM review) 0.764

Qi Mark XVI (IBM review un-optimised) 0.646

Qi Current model (Post external reviews) 0.781

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The Qi shipowner changes

Shift focus to DOC company performance
Models interaction between elements, rather than
dealing in isolation
Regulators no longer treated as a singular block
Detention closure & PSC closure immediate
Rolling calculation period to better pick up trends
More defined vessels type groups
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The Global Fleet SVIS vs Qi (Mar 2017)

Total BC GCV
fleet fleet <20yo
fleet
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Interactions are more complicated to explain

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Average Risk by IACS class all Vessels

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Average Risk by IACS class BC Vessels

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Average Risk by IACS class BC Vessels 500 to 30,000DWT

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Average Risk by IACS class BC Vessels 30K to 95K DWT

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Average Risk by IACS class BC Vessels 95K to 450 K DWT

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Interpreting the Qi rating

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Interpreting the Qi rating

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Interpreting the Qi rating

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Interpreting the Qi rating

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Rules still apply to override the star rating

Incidents

Class withdrawal

Failed inspections

PSC deficiencies

PSC detentions

Sanctions

Non IACS

MoU blacklists
THANK YOU

vetting@rightship.com @RightShip_
RightShip