= 0.1 0.3 0.

6
PUNTO 1 PUNTO 2
t t t t t t Dt SES(1) SES(2) SES(3)
0 1 1
1 0.0723164703 1.07231647 -0.0030307 1.99696929 0.37745963 2.3744 39.377 39.377 39.377
2 0.0056660156 1.07798249 0.0185117 3.08779743 0.76712467 3.8549 35.677 28.277 17.176
3 -0.009672613 1.06830987 0.1127482 4.27852816 0.93378731 5.2123 32.495 20.95 9.1832
4 -0.052727046 1.01558283 0.0372853 5.38412331 -0.28657496 5.0975 29.767 16.229 6.8007
5 0.0015655587 1.01714839 0.013688 6.41339417 -1.92473635 4.4887 27.3 12.889 5.7788
6 0.0219268259 1.03907521 0.0520775 7.48262004 -0.43419959 7.0484 25.019 10.369 5.0047
7 -0.002604338 1.03647087 0.0331246 8.55481987 0.3145874 8.8694 23.222 9.3729 6.2309
8 -0.000928776 1.0355421 -0.0461618 9.54512898 2.31691956 11.862 21.786 9.2219 7.814
9 0.0711701432 1.10671224 -0.0222083 10.5584628 -1.32348305 9.235 20.794 10.014 10.243
10 -0.053826534 1.05288571 -0.0160955 11.6490795 1.3271665 12.976 19.638 9.7802 9.6381
11 -0.025412555 1.02747315 -0.0704807 12.6314845 -0.25214604 12.379 18.972 10.739 11.641
12 -0.06860846 0.95886469 -0.014767 13.6441906 0.46722448 14.111 18.313 11.231 12.084
13 -0.008908683 0.94995601 0.0285003 14.6315556 -0.35944822 14.272 17.893 12.095 13.3
14 0.0391693902 0.9891254 -0.0237713 15.5577403 1.25399083 16.812 17.53 12.748 13.883
15 -0.001326725 0.98779867 0.0133414 16.5602071 0.46500645 17.025 17.459 13.967 15.64
16 0.0232004822 1.01099916 -0.0522565 17.4957493 -0.48995616 17.006 17.415 14.885 16.471
17 -0.049673054 0.9613261 0.06763 18.5743785 -0.02329557 18.551 17.374 15.521 16.792
18 -0.023399843 0.93792626 0.0099185 19.5456232 -1.15897365 18.387 17.492 16.43 17.847
19 -0.00205564 0.93587062 0.0062818 20.4898312 -2.17292836 18.317 17.581 17.017 18.171
20 -0.065469067 0.87040155 0.0370263 21.4627281 0.22459972 21.687 17.655 17.407 18.259
21 -0.014839134 0.85556242 0.0068991 22.3400287 0.73979209 23.08 18.058 18.691 20.316
22 -0.023019675 0.83254274 -0.0224013 23.1731898 -1.50308551 21.67 18.56 20.008 21.974
23 0.0324183929 0.86496114 -0.0414471 23.9642854 0.01449735 23.979 18.871 20.506 21.792
24 -0.004155208 0.86080593 -0.0173613 24.8118853 -1.00729949 23.805 19.382 21.548 23.104
25 -0.03601881 0.82478712 -0.0010114 25.6716798 1.53908786 27.211 19.824 22.225 23.524
26 -0.010085841 0.81470128 -0.0131668 26.4833001 1.8090941 28.292 20.563 23.721 25.736
27 -0.015794012 0.79890727 0.0289677 27.3269691 0.13253839 27.46 21.336 25.092 27.27
28 0.0519136847 0.85082095 0.0171094 28.1429857 1.63033747 29.773 21.948 25.802 27.384
29 -0.098002783 0.75281817 0.0126736 29.0064803 -0.54861403 28.458 22.731 26.994 28.817
30 -0.10443182 0.64838635 0.0042383 29.7635367 -1.06675998 28.697 23.304 27.433 28.602
31 0.0198470843 0.66823343 0.0094427 30.4213658 -1.8875653 28.534
32 -0.024089604 0.64414383 0.0723794 31.1619786 -0.53135636 30.631
33 -0.055460077 0.58868375 0.0694909 31.8756133 -0.094808 31.781
34 -0.071743671 0.51694008 -0.0508111 32.413486 -0.50276299 31.911
35 -0.01532535 0.50161473 -0.0055671 32.9248589 0.04250751 32.967
36 -0.007826475 0.49378825 -0.0404141 33.3860595 1.09404709 34.48
37 -0.069147427 0.42464083 -0.0441762 33.8356716 0.74180662 34.577
38 0.0045307388 0.42917157 -0.0137724 34.24654 -1.26447048 32.982
39 0.0425570761 0.47172864 -0.0399882 34.6357234 0.69740508 35.333
40 -0.027810393 0.44391825 0.0452739 35.1527259 1.2220562 36.375
41 -0.024317433 0.41960082 -0.0197364 35.5769078 0.178768 35.756
42 0.0167880899 0.43638891 -0.0342634 35.9622452 0.55404712 36.516
43 -0.007094786 0.42929412 0.0125642 36.4111983 2.19364665 38.605
44 0.0219623871 0.45125651 0.000941 36.8414334 0.97787733 37.819
45 -0.006777918 0.44447859 0.0100701 37.30276 -0.04273716 37.26
46 -0.037153222 0.40732537 0.0372711 37.7845097 0.72588364 38.51
47 0.0509209713 0.45824634 0.0641945 38.2560296 -0.53461918 37.721
48 -0.0251659 0.43308044 0.0415677 38.7558436 1.33682533 40.093
49 0.0498388545 0.48291929 0.0422779 39.2312019 1.46445018 40.696
50 -0.015072101 0.46784719 0.010703 39.7248242 -0.2868137 39.438
51 0.0412383088 0.5090855 0.0345069 40.2271783 0.51032885 40.738
52 -0.000133105 0.5089524 -0.0466295 40.6896343 0.05889888 40.749
53 -0.014218085 0.49473431 -0.0517719 41.1468148 1.12160251 42.268
54 -0.038129929 0.45660438 0.0454369 41.686986 0.1973001 41.884
55 0.0053354597 0.46193984 0.00212 42.1457104 -3.61120328 38.535
56 -0.002438719 0.45950112 0.0577328 42.665383 -0.75435537 41.911
57 -0.000993077 0.45850805 -0.0147965 43.1100876 -1.01060778 42.099
58 0.0114821432 0.46999019 0.0038999 43.5724956 0.86422688 44.437
59 0.0217421075 0.4917323 0.0426434 44.0851292 -0.69136831 43.394
60 0.0162449396 0.50797724 0.0606979 44.6375593 -1.20591267 43.432
61 0.0273099431 0.53528718 -0.033767 45.1117696 -0.25467443 44.857
62 -0.034903678 0.5003835 0.0118973 45.658954 -2.00651812 43.652
63 3.210516E-05 0.50041561 -0.0489468 46.1103907 0.63120069 46.742
64 0.0348633876 0.53527899 0.0291031 46.6399094 -0.56846375 46.071
65 -0.01561225 0.51966674 0.0280642 47.2032526 0.7005292 47.904
66 -0.017069215 0.50259753 -0.0220336 47.7008858 1.35193204 49.053
67 -0.061097671 0.44149986 0.0004575 48.2039408 -0.17371804 48.03
68 0.0323291715 0.47382903 0.0575945 48.7030351 -0.43646992 48.267
69 -0.006399523 0.46742951 -0.0001729 49.1766912 0.15789624 49.335
70 0.0363828804 0.50381239 0.0230052 49.667126 0.3948503 50.062
71 0.0345335138 0.5383459 -0.0086047 50.1623337 0.77557161 50.938
72 0.016814829 0.55516073 -0.027748 50.6729315 -0.16913873 50.504
73 -0.002687102 0.55247363 0.0034881 51.2315804 -0.94341431 50.288
74 0.0472447027 0.59971833 -0.0335707 51.7504833 1.90605533 53.657
75 0.0203330274 0.62005136 -0.0029847 52.3472169 0.53620852 52.883
76 0.0829302735 0.70298163 0.0224156 52.9896839 -1.52157099 51.468
77 0.0593856385 0.76236727 0.0301173 53.7227828 2.01285729 55.736
78 -0.035498579 0.72686869 0.0515184 54.5366685 0.70111582 55.238
79 0.0897918653 0.81666056 -0.0652482 55.198289 0.99806584 56.196
80 0.022104814 0.83876537 -0.0506129 55.9643366 1.04789478 57.012
81 -0.035598532 0.80316684 0.0160192 56.8191212 1.61888238 58.438
82 -0.021930373 0.78123647 0.0249165 57.6472045 -1.6405329 56.007
83 -0.003055266 0.7781812 -0.0306522 58.3977889 0.67187557 59.07
84 0.0158999228 0.79408112 -0.0205143 59.1554558 0.30447609 59.46
85 0.0422190169 0.83630014 0.0304964 59.9800333 0.34130835 60.321
 86 0.0284727321 0.86477287 0.0111573 60.8274907 0.36132519 61.189
87 0.0216428816 0.88641575 0.0123105 61.7045741 -0.86045475 60.844
88 0.035771609 0.92218736 0.0288405 62.6198304 -1.11445615 61.505
89 -0.015529713 0.90665765 -0.0351642 63.5068536 -1.75698005 61.75
90 0.0116735919 0.91833124 0.0195052 64.4330164 -1.24348162 63.19
91 -0.014658963 0.90367228 -0.0151378 65.3362099 -0.86289447 64.473
92 0.0067561814 0.91042846 0.0676941 66.3075762 0.2601314 66.568
93 0.0692019967 0.97963046 0.0140422 67.2320469 -0.67245082 66.56
94 -0.030032015 0.94959844 0.029415 68.2410923 0.08290499 68.324
95 -0.055993041 0.8936054 -0.0103356 69.1803552 1.80987627 70.99
96 -0.053932672 0.83967273 -0.0267562 70.0472043 -0.10757276 69.94
97 -0.032776643 0.80689608 0.0025522 70.8894292 -0.6958453 70.194
98 -0.013847102 0.79304898 0.0025522 71.6988775 0.5719744 72.271
99 -0.065017775 0.72803121 0.0086579 72.5005844 -0.1476019 72.353
100 0.0556527993 0.78368401 -0.0405162 73.1880994 -0.20416905 72.984

PUNTO 4
x 5050 y 3937.74315 (x2) 25502500
^2 338350 xy 251811.883 (y2) 15505821.1059
y2 189303.872

a 7.28297428 REGRESION LINE

b 0.63553381
80
r 0.99134208
70
f(x)==0.9827591158
R 0.6355338061x + 7.2829742806
60
Para el Punto 4, el periodo hace depender a la demanda. 50

40

30

20

10

0
0 20 40 60
 PUNTO 3
F2 ME MAD MAPE MSE 45

40
- - - - -
- - - - - 35
- - - - -
30
- - - - -
- - - - - 25
- - - - -

SES
- - - - - 20
- - - - -
15
- - - - -
- - - - - 10
- - - - -
- - - - - 5
- - - - -
0
- - - - - 0 5 10 15 20 2
- - - - - Demanda
12.253 -4.7527 4.7527 0.2795 22.589
10.726 -7.8251 7.8251 0.4218 61.232 SES(1) SES(2) SES(3)
10.7 -7.6863 7.6863 0.418 59.079
11.278 -7.0389 7.0389 0.3843 49.546 25
12.036 -9.6513 9.6513 0.445 93.148
12.868 -10.212 10.212 0.4425 104.28
20
13.889 -7.7814 7.7814 0.3591 60.549
14.938 -9.0405 9.0405 0.377 81.73
15
Pronostcada

15.87 -7.9344 7.9344 0.3333 62.955

16.728 -10.483 10.483 0.3853 109.9
17.653 -10.639 10.639 0.376 113.19 10

18.593 -8.8665 8.8665 0.3229 78.615

19.605 -10.168 10.168 0.3415 103.39 5
20.544 -7.9136 7.9136 0.2781 62.625
21.54 -7.1569 7.1569 0.2494 51.221 0
15 20 25 30 35
22.404 -6.1298 6.1298 0.2148 37.575
21.306 -9.3248 9.3248 0.3044 86.951 Demanda
20.186 -11.594 11.594 0.3648 134.43
18.997 -12.914 12.914 0.4047 166.78
17.785 -15.182 15.182 0.4605 230.5
16.568 -17.912 17.912 0.5195 320.85
15.214 -19.364 19.364 0.56 374.96
13.749 -19.233 19.233 0.5831 369.93
12.296 -23.037 23.037 0.652 530.72
10.756 -25.619 25.619 0.7043 656.34
9.1873 -26.568 26.568 0.7431 705.88
7.4715 -29.045 29.045 0.7954 843.6
5.6535 -32.951 32.951 0.8536 1085.8
3.8279 -33.991 33.991 0.8988 1155.4
1.9068 -35.353 35.353 0.9488 1249.9
-14.846 14.846 0.4807 302.12
 REGRESION LINEAL

.2829742806

40 60 80 100 120
5 20 25 30 35

Demanda

SES(2) SES(3)

F2

30 35 40
emanda
Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente d 0.99134208
Coeficiente 0.98275912
R^2 ajustado 0.98258319
Error tpico 2.45453657
Observacione 100

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 1 33655.2357 33655.2357 5586.16322 3.1647E-88
Residuos 98 590.425479 6.02474979
Total 99 34245.6612

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
Intercepcin 7.28297428 0.49461233 14.7246113 1.4115E-26 6.30143221 8.26451635 6.30143221
Variable X 1 0.63553381 0.00850319 74.7406397 3.1647E-88 0.6186595 0.65240811 0.6186595
Superior 95,0%
8.26451635
0.65240811