GVPT282 Final Paper Catriona Law

Education, Innovation, Development: Tajikistan

Introduction

Tajikistan is a poor, central Asian country and a former member of the Soviet Union.

While the Tajik economy was not prosperous during its time in the Soviet Union, its situation

became worse after leaving. Currently, of all the former Soviet states it has one of the lowest per

capita GDPs (Central Intelligence Agency). Tajikistans lack of innovation and ultimately

education has contributed to its small economy and its dependence on remittances from Russia.

For this reason, I am wondering if improved education standards will enhance Tajikistans

economy? Throughout this paper, I will explore the theories behind education improving

economies, lost women in the economy, the history of Tajikistan and its education system during

the Soviet era, and finally, I will compare Tajikistan with a culturally similar country, Iran, and a

historically comparable country, Estonia.

Education as a Tool for Economic Growth

It can be seen on a microeconomic in the United States economy that those who pursue

higher education end up with larger salaries. A study performed by the World Bank supports this

theory, Greater earnings for the more educated represent higher productivity hence, an

increase in educated labor in the economy is associated with increased economic output and

higher growth rates. Therefore, it seems plausible that investing in the human capital of a

country leads to a larger, more successful economy in the long run. Evidence shows that

countries with higher levels of economic growth have labor forces with higher levels of formal

schooling (The Road Not Traveled). Based on this, countries with high participation rates in

higher education have a larger economy. Additionally, education actually increases innovation.

The World Banks paper The Road Not Traveled: Education Reform in the Middle East and

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North Africa states, more education in the labor force increases output in two ways: education

adds skills to labor, increasing the capacity of labor to produce more output; and it increases the

workers capacity to innovate (learn new ways of using existing technology and creating new

technology) in ways that increase his or her own productivity and the productivity of other

workers. Innovation is imperative for economies especially market based types. It drives new

industries, foreign investment, and competition. Another pertinent issue that applies to Tajikistan

is the low participation rate of girls in the school system. According to research done for the

World Banks Gender Mainstreaming Strategy, societies that discriminate by gender tend to

experience less rapid economic growth and poverty reduction than societies that treat males and

females more equally, and that social gender disparities produce economically inefficient

outcomes (World Bank 2001a) (Bradshaw et al). When girls do not make it past primary school,

they are less likely to be positively contributing to the workforce in the future and the countrys

economy therefore suffers.

Moreover, as the knowledge of citizens grow, they are more likely to demand what they

want and institute a democracy. Education fosters social change and therefore democracy

(Gylfason). While not all countries with high GDPs are democracies, this type of government is

successful because of the strong institutions and stability it brings (McCauley). Democracies are

also more likely to be transparent. Corrupted countries suffer economically because not all the

wealth is being shared. Ultimately, educated people are more likely to recognize a corrupt

government and fight for change.

The Issue of Tajikistan

Tajikistan officially became a member of the Soviet Union in late 1929. Prior to this, it

was a part of the Uzbekistan Socialist Soviet Republic. In 1926, when the Soviet government did

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its first census in Tajikistan, it tested that 4%of Tajik men and 0.1% of Tajik women were

literate. The 1930s brought the expansion of state-run schools, despite the opposition from

Muslim leaders. By the 1980s, education in Soviet Tajikistan was successful with high

attendance rates (Curtis). According to data from the Library of Congress, In the academic year

1990-91, Tajikistan reported 68,800 students in institutions of higher education (Curtis).

However, towards the end of the Soviet era all parts of Tajikistans education system started to

decrease in quality. New schools were not built on schedule and the level of instruction suffered

in both standard school subjects such as science and math and at vocational schools (Curtis).

Today, Tajikistan has high rates of primary school enrollment rates, lower secondary

participation rates, and less than 40% participation in tertiary education (Country Profile).

In order to best aid the Soviet Union, Tajikistan specialized in cotton production. The

Soviets also developed hydroelectricity in the country. The transition to a market economy began

in the late Soviet era, but progressed very slowly. Tajikistans post-Soviet economy was made

worse by the five-year civil war that ended in 1997. Following the end of the war, the economy

was not properly reformed, again putting emphasis on cotton growth (Central Intelligence

Agency). The mono-crop economy and lack of diversification led to an even lower GDP with a

slow growth rate (Tajikistan). According to the CIA World Factbook, more than one million

Tajik citizens work abroad- roughly 90% in Russia - supporting families back home through

remittances that have been equivalent to nearly 50% of GDP. Remittances can be positive as

they can be used as capital to advance a country, but the goal for a successful, developed country

is to stop dependence on remittances all together.

To evaluate my argument to the fullest extent I have chosen two countries to compare

Tajikistan to, Estonia and Iran. Estonia is a former Soviet republic that successfully survived the

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fall of the union. Estonia holds one of the highest GDPs of all the former Soviet republics while

not having any key natural resources such as oil or gold (Estonia). Its success can be attributed

to its investment in education. Estonia got a bit of a head start over most Soviet republics. It

actually had a less restrictive curriculum starting before the 1980s, textbooks and lectures were

in their native tongue instead of Russian and surprisingly ideals of democracy instead of

communism were taught. In the 1990s following independence, the nation instituted the National

curriculum which set baseline assessments for each grade, but allowed schools to create

curriculums based on student interests and regional cultural differences. This system allows high

quality education no matter the background. The government primarily funds schools and there

has been a 10-year long initiative on increasing teacher salaries (Lees). Estonia is home to one of

the most renowned education systems in Europe and is one of the most successful economies of

the former Soviet Union. Estonias educational development coming out of the Soviet Union is a

great example how Tajikistan can do the same even a couple decades later. Iran, on the other

hand, is culturally similar to Tajikistan. The two countries speak different dialects of the same

language and share national holidays that stem from their time as a part of the Persian Empire.

Iran possesses richer natural resources and therefore has a larger GDP, but interestingly,

similarities can be seen in their institutions.

Argument and Hypothesis

The people of Tajikistan are forced to seek employment abroad due to the lack of job

opportunities in the country. Appropriate funding needs to be in place so that quality public

schools can thrive. This not only calls for incentives to attend university, but also implementation

of regulations to ensure minimal dropouts at the secondary level. In Tajikistan, girls are more

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likely to drop out during secondary school. By preventing this from happening, women will be a

larger part of the economy and Tajikistan will flourish.

By improving the education sector, educated leaders will emerge that choose to innovate.

This will be a combination of factories, businesses, and technologies similar to other developed

countries. As these economic opportunities emerge, fewer citizens will be required to go abroad

for work. More jobs will exist even for the generations that did not receive quality education. In

addition, the open business climate will lead to an increase in foreign direct investment.

Currently, Tajikistan lacks investment. If foreign countries start to see a change in education for

Tajiks and an increased amount of innovation, they will feel confident that their money will be

used properly and take the chance. With these long-term solutions, Tajikistan will finally be a

household name as an economic hub and tourist attraction.

Past studies have shown that there is not a strong relationship between education and

economic growth at the national level. However, it is important to consider quality of education.

Number of years attending school should not be the only factor that must be looked at when

improving education standards. For success, student to teacher ratio should be in the lower range.

Additionally, not all countries take the international standardized tests that are designed to

measure quality and improvement. Another point that must be considered is Tajikistans

government. Based on data from Transparency International, Tajikistan has high levels of

corruption. When assessing the evidence this must be monitored. Moreover, when looking at the

evidence it must also be taken in to account that Tajikistan is a landlocked country. Ultimately,

Tajikistan will suffer from this no matter what. Studies cite that the GDP of landlocked countries

is typically half that of a coastal country (McCauley). After looking through my research I expect

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to see an investment and reformation of Tajikistans education system lead to an increase in the

size of its economy.

Evidence

Estonia and Iran can provide a view in to Tajikistans future. Tajikistan spends about

3.9% of their GDP on education, whereas Estonia spends 6.1% and Iran 4.8% (UNICEF). Based

on Figure 1, the net enrollment rates in Tajikistan for each sex in primary and secondary school,

it can be seen that Tajiks have high enrollment rates in primary school, but drop off during

secondary school. Enrollment rates measures the percentage of eligible kids who enroll in their

grade level; a better statistic would be attendance rates. While harder to measure, they are a more

accurate statistic of the amount of kids actually getting an education. Figure 1 shows that

secondary age females are less likely to be enrolled in school than males of the same age. Also,

compare this to Figure 2, net enrollment rates in Estonia, enrollment rates of secondary students

still drops, but stays above 90% with females actually having a higher rate than males. Irans

statistics (Figure 3) are actually similar to Tajikistans where females of secondary age suffer

from low enrollment. This may be a result of cultural similarities between the countries. In terms

of the low secondary enrollment rates in Iran, probable explanations that I have come across for

this are rural areas where children of this age must work to support their family or their family

cannot afford to send them to school. This same explanation can be used to explain the low rates

for females in Tajikistan as well. Unfortunately, setting Tajikistan up for the phenomenon of the

missing women. This permeates in to the labor force essentially preventing the GDP from

reaching its full potential (McCauley).

These education rates can be compared to the countrys GDP. For example, Estonia,

which has high education rates all around, has a higher GDP than Tajikistan (figure 4). Tajikistan

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Figure 1: Net Enrollment rates in Tajikistan 2008-2012 Figure 2: Net Enrollment rates in Estonia 2008-2012

Male Female Male Female

Primary 99.5% 95.7% Primary 97.7% 97%
Secondary 90.9% 81.1% Secondary 91.3% 92.8%

Figure 3: Net Enrollment rates in Iran 2008-2012

Male Female
Primary 99.2% 99.8%
Secondary 82.4% 79.8%

Figure 4: GDP Growth of Estonia and Tajikistan 1995-2015

30
In Billions of
US Dollars

20
Tajikistan
10
Estonia
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015

Figure 5: GDP Growth of Iran 1995-2015

800
In Billions of US

600
Dollars

400
200 Iran
0

(All data from the World Bank, UNICEF)

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has had a slow but steady growth rate since the end of its civil war in 1997 with a current GDP

per capita of $3,000 (Central Intelligence Agency). For reference, Estonia has a GDP per capita

of $29,500 and Iran $18,100 (Central Intelligence Agency). While Estonia had a rapid rate of

growth throughout the 2000s, Tajikistan is dependent on remittances, which, can provide a base

for development, but will cause GDP to increase very slowly at the risk of brain drain

(Kireyev). Brain drain is the issue of successful, educated people leaving the country or, in the

case of Tajikistan, skilled workers who go to Russia and decide to make it their permanent

residence (McCauley). Iran, figure 5, has the highest GDP of all three countries even though its

secondary education levels are not high. This can be attributed to its large natural gas and oil

reserves.

The stock of foreign direct investment at home can be used to show how much

investment a country gets from outside entities. Figure 6 shows that Iran, which has the highest

GDP of the selected countries, also has the highest stock of FDI. Tajikistan has the lowest. These

countries or companies are more likely to invest in stable and successful nations. For example,

the US receives $3.648 trillion in FDI (Central Intelligence Agency). Not only is this important

for financial purposes, but according to the Organisation of Cooperation and Development it also

creates stable and long lasting links between economies (FDI Stocks). Another notable point is

the main industries of each country. For instance, the United States is so highly diversified that it

does not have a primary industry, a key to long-term economic success and obtaining foreign

investment. Estonias main industry of engineering is also notable (Central Intelligence Agency).

It highlights their education and resulting innovation. Tajikistan specializes in aluminum and

cotton Countries with diverse industries are not victims to mono-crop economies like Tajikistan

where the failure of one crop or natural resources is lethal for the economy (McCauley). Based

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on this analysis it is likely that if Tajikistan were to invest in its education system. People would

be more likely to innovate, diversifying their economy, increasing Gross Domestic Product, and

encouraging FDI.

Figure 6: Stock of Foreign Direct Investment at home

60 46.1
Billions of US

40
Dollars

22.86
20
2.272
0
Tajikistan Iran Estonia
To better prove this, an experiment in the country over the course of the next decade will need to

be performed.

Proposal for Future Research

The future of Tajikistan lies in its ability to educate. An on-the-ground experiment would

be the ideal way to promote advancement in education. Based on prior statistics, it is

recommended to implement the following plan in Tajikistan: young adults would be encouraged

to pursue higher education or vocational training. In order to make this achievable, NGOS or,

ideally, the government, would provide grants, scholarships, and microloans for schools and

students. Foreign aid will only be used if necessary to reduce the risk of Tajikistan falling deeper

in to a poverty trap (McCauley). Comparable to Michael Kremers study on teacher absences in

India, to ensure quality education, primary and secondary schools will be randomly checked for

teacher and student attendance and quality of teaching. This is somewhat similar to compulsory

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attendance policy instituted by Estonia recently, but a more feet on the ground approach that is

necessary for a developing country (Lees).

The plan outlined above will be instituted, at first, on a small scale in Tajikistan.

Secondary schools, specifically, around Tajikistan will be randomly chosen amounting in

approximately 200 schools. Half of these schools will be used as a control and the other half will

be treated with the following experiment. Over a period of twenty years both the schools and

students will be assessed for success. Students, who, at the start of the experiment, are entering

eighth grade will be sponsored by the organization that chooses to fund the research. The

schools they attend will also receive increased funding that will go to providing a quality

education. In this respect, if the teacher to student ratio is high in some schools, more teachers

will be hired for a more individualized experience for the students. Inside the classrooms, the

environment will be similar to that of Estonian education. A basic curriculum will exist, but

teachers can plan the lesson around what their students are interested in or cultural differences

that prevail in that area. The schools will be monitored through random checks to ensure

attendance of students and teachers and to evaluate the quality of the lessons. These students will

be sponsored all the way through graduating tertiary education, so they do not need to worry

about the costs. The ultimate long-term challenge for this experiment will be preventing brain

drain, but the same advisors who check quality and attendance at the schools will periodically

meet with the students to discuss future plans and encourage improvement of Tajikistan.

Because of the breadth of what needs to be evaluated, it is hard to surmise an experiment

that properly measures all values. Nevertheless, at the end of the 20 years, I expect to find that

the sponsored students are less likely to go to Russia for work. Secondary enrollment rates in the

treated schools should also be high with little disparities among male and female rates. Within 10

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years each of the sponsored students will have completed both secondary and tertiary school. As

a result, at the 20-year mark, the experiment will demonstrate what they chose to do afterward. I

expect these students to continue their education even further, start their own companies, or enter

the workforce. It would be interesting to see different industries expand, and as long as the

experiment is able to prevent brain drain I believe this will happen. In only 20 years it is doubtful

to see a significant increase in either GDP or FDI, but maybe a significant change of their current

trajectory would be possible. Additionally, it would be interesting to evaluate how many of these

students participate in politics, or, survey them and their control counterparts to measure the

different feelings they have on the government of Tajikistan. Assuming these results are found,

these schools and students may continue to be evaluated for an extended period of time and it

would be suggested to the government to institute this program more widely.

Conclusion

An investment in education is an investment in human capital. Education is only the first

step for Tajikistan. A highly diversified economy that comes from innovation will raise

economic standing. As Tajiks utilize their education and begin to innovate there will be

improvements in development and not just economic development. Tajikistan has high levels of

corruption, which effects development and the economy. From the perspective of modernization

theory, as Tajiks become more wealthy and educated they will have larger demands on their

government and are more likely to fight for institutional change (McCauley). As foreign entities

see a successfully developing country they will be more likely to invest in Tajikistan. It will

likely be a few decades under the above-proposed plan before Tajikistan sees generous

improvements, but it is time for them to take a step in the right direction.

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Works Cited

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