Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Distributions
1
Learning Objectives
3
Random Variable -
A variable which contains the outcomes of a chance
experiment
Focusing our attention on the numerical features of the elementary
outcomes, we introduce the idea of a random variable.
4
The numerical values are determined by some
characteristic of the elementary outcome, and
typically it will vary from outcome to outcome.
The word random serves to emphasize the fact
that before the experiment is performed, we do
not know the specific outcome and,
consequently, its associated value of X. The
following examples illustrate the concept of a
random variable.
5
Outcome Value of X
HHH 3
HHT 2
HTH 2
HTT 1
THH 2
THT 1
TTH 1
TTT 0
6
For each elementary outcome, there is
only one value for X. However, several
elementary outcomes may yield the
same value. Scanning our list, we now
identify the events (the collections of
elementary outcomes) that correspond
to distinct values of X.
7
Numerical Value of X as Composition of the
an Event Event
X =0 = {TTT}
X=3 = {HHH}
8
The random variable X, the number of heads in three
tosses of a coin, defines a correspondence between
the collections of elementary outcomes and the real
numbers 0, 1, 2, and 3.
9
Discrete vs Continuous
Distributions
Discrete Random Variable -- the set of all
possible values is at most a finite or a
countably infinite number of possible values
Number of new subscribers to a magazine
Number of bad checks received by a restaurant
Number of absent employees on a given day
10
Discrete Probability Distributions
A discrete random variable is a variable that
can assume only a countable number of values
Many possible outcomes:
number of complaints per day
number of TVs in a household
number of rings before the phone is answered
Only two possible outcomes:
gender: male or female
defective: yes or no
spreads peanut butter first vs. spreads jelly first
11
Discrete Distribution -- Example
Distribution of Daily
Crises P
r 0.5
Number of
Probability o 0.4
Crises
b
a 0.3
0 0.37 b
1 0.31 0.2
i
2 0.18 l 0.1
3 0.09 i
t
0
4 0.04 0 1 2 3 4 5
y
5 0.01 Number of Crises
12
Requirements for a
Discrete Probability Function
P( X ) = 1
over all x
13
Mean of a Discrete Distribution
= E ( X ) = X P(X )
X P(X) X P( X)
-1 .1 -.1
0 .2 .0
1 .4 .4
2 .2 .4
3 .1 .3
1.0
14
Variance and Standard Deviation
of a Discrete Distribution
= ( X ) P( X ) = 1.2
2
2 2
= = 12
. 110
.
X P(X) X (X ) ( X ) 2 2
P( X )
-1 .1 -2 4 .4
0 .2 -1 1 .2
1 .4 0 0 .0
2 .2 1 1 .2
3 .1 2 4 .4
1.2
15
Mean Example
= E ( X ) = X P( X ) = 1.15
X P(X) XP(X) P
r 0.5
0 .37 .00
o 0.4
1 .31 .31 b
a 0.3
2 .18 .36 b
0.2
i
3 .09 .27
l 0.1
4 .04 .16 i
t
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
5 .01 .05 y
Number of Crises
1.15
16
Variance and Standard Deviation
Example
= ( X )
2
2
= = 1.41 = 1.19
2
P ( X ) = 141
.
17
Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions
Discrete Continuous
Probability Probability
Distributions Distributions
Binomial Normal
Poisson Uniform
Hypergeometric Exponential
18
Binomial Distribution
Experiment involves n identical trials
Each trial has exactly two possible outcomes:
success and failure
Each trial is independent of the previous trials
p is the probability of a success on any one trial
q = (1-p) is the probability of a failure on any one
trial
p and q are constant throughout the experiment
X is the number of successes in the n trials
19
Binomial Distribution
n! X n X
Probability P ( X ) =
X !( n X )!
p q for X = 0,1,2, n.
function
Mean value = n p
Variance = n p q
2
and
standard
deviation
= = 2
n p q
20
Binomial Distribution:
Development
Experiment: randomly select, with
replacement, two families from the residents
of Tiny Town
Success is Children in Household: p = 0.75
Failure is No Children in Household: q = 1- p
= 0.25
X is the number of families in the sample with
Children in Household
Children in Number of Listing of Sample Space
Family
Household Automobiles
(A,B), (A,C), (A,D), (A,A),
A Yes 3
(B,A), (B,B), (B,C), (B,D),
B Yes 2
(C,A), (C,B), (C,C), (C,D),
C No 1
(D,A), (D,B), (D,C), (D,D)
D Yes 2
21
Binomial Distribution:
Development Continued
Listing of
Families A, B, and D have Sample
Space
P(outcome)
X
children in the household;
family C does not (A,B), 1/16 2
Success is Children in (A,C),
(A,D),
1/16
1/16
1
2
Household: p = 0.75 (A,A) 1/16 2
Failure is No Children in (B,A),
(B,B),
1/16
1/16
2
2
Household: q = 1- p = (B,C), 1/16 1
0.25 (B,D), 1/16 2
(C,A), 1/16 1
X is the number of (C,B), 1/16 1
families in the sample (C,C), 1/16 0
(C,D), 1/16 1
with Children in (D,A), 1/16 2
Household (D,B), 1/16 2
(D,C), 1/16 1
(D,D) 1/16 2
22
Binomial Distribution:
Development Continued
Listing of P(X)
Sample P(outcome) X
X
Space
0 1/16
1 6/16
(A,B), 1/16 2 2 9/16
(A,C), 1/16 1 1
(A,D), 1/16 2
(D,D), 1/16 2
n! x n x
(B,A),
(B,B),
1/16
1/16
2
2
P( X ) =
X !( n X ) !
pq
(B,C), 1/16 1
(B,D), 1/16 2 2! 0 2 0 1
0!( 2 0) ! .75 .25
(C,A), 1/16 1 P( X = 0) = = 0.0625 =
(C,B), 1/16 1 16
(C,C), 1/16 0
(C,D), 1/16 1 2! 1 2 1 6
1!( 2 1)!.75 .25
P ( X = 1) = = 0.375 =
(D,A), 1/16 2 16
(D,B), 1/16 2
(D,C), 1/16 1 2! 9
2 22
24
Binomial Distribution:
Development Continued
Possible
Possible P(sequence)
P(sequence) P(X)
P(X)
Sequences
Sequences X
X X
X
75))== (.75) 2
2
(S,S)
(S,S) (.(.75
75)(.
)(.75 22 nn!! xx nnxx
P X )) ==
P(( X
X !!( nn X
X X ) !!
pq
22!! 00 2200 22!! 11 2211
22!! 22 2222
P X == 22)) ==
P(( X
22!!( 22 22) !!.75 .25 == 00..5625
5625
25
Binomial Distribution
Example:
The Gallup survey discussed in the
Decision Dilemma found that 65% of all
financial consumers were very satisfied
with their primary financial institution. If
this figure still holds true today, suppose
40 financial consumers are sampled
randomly. What is the probability that
exactly 23 of the 40 are very satisfied
with their primary financial institution?
26
Solution:
40
C23(.65)23(.35)17=(88732378800)(.000049775)
(.000000018)=(.0784)
If 65% of the financial consumers are very satisfied, about 7.84% of
the time the researcher would get exactly 23 out of 40 financial
consumers who are very satisfied with their financial institution.
27
The odds are against getting 23 out of 40 financial consumers by
chance who are very satisfied with their financial institution. How
many very satisfied financial consumers would one expect to get in
40 randomly selected financial consumers? If 65% of the financial
consumers are very satisfied with their primary financial institution,
one would expect to get about 65% of 40 or (.65)(40) = 26 very
satisfied financial consumers. In any individual sample of 40
financial consumers, the numbers who are very satisfied is likely to
differ from 26. On average, the expected number is 26. a researcher
who gets 23 very satisfied financial consumers out of 40 can view
this number in light of the 26 that would be expected.
28
Binomial Distribution
Example:
According to the U.S. Census Bureau,
approximately 6% of all workers in
Jackson, Mississippi, are unemployed. In
conducting a random telephone survey
in Jackson, what is the probability of
getting two or fewer unemployed
workers in a sample of 20?
29
Solution:
n = 20
p =. 06
q =. 94
P( X 2 ) = P ( X = 0 ) + P ( X = 1) + P ( X = 2 )
=. 2901+. 3703+. 2246 =. 8850
P ( X = 0) =
20!
0!(20 0)!
( .06) ( .94)
0 20 0
= (1)(1)(.2901) =.2901
P ( X = 1) =
20!
1!( 20 1)!
( .06) ( .94)
1 20 1
= (20)(.06)(.3086 ) =.3703
P ( X = 2) =
20!
2 !( 20 2)!
( .06) ( .94)
2 20 2
= (190)(.0036 )(.3283) =.2246
30
If 6% of workers in Jackson, Mississippi, are unemployed, the
telephone surveyor would get zero, one, or two unemployed
workers 88.5% of the time in a random sample of 20 workers.
The requirement of getting two or fewer is satisfied by getting
zero, one, or two unemployed workers. Thus this problem is the
union of three probabilities.
Whenever the binomial formula is used to solve for cumulative
success (not an exact number), the probability of each x value
must be solved and the probabilities summed. If an actual
survey produced such a result, it would serve to validate the
census figures.
31
Binomial Table
n = 20 PROBABILITY
X 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
32
Example:
33
Using the Binomial Table
Solution:
n = 20 PROBABILITY
X 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
n = 20
n = 20 PROBABILITY
X 0.05 0.06 0.07 p =. 06
0 0.3585 0.2901 0.2342 q =. 94
1 0.3774 0.3703 0.3526
2 0.1887 0.2246 0.2521
P( X 2) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2)
3 0.0596 0.0860 0.1139 =. 2901 +. 3703 +. 2246 =. 8850
4 0.0133 0.0233 0.0364
5 0.0022 0.0048 0.0088 P ( X > 2 ) = 1 P ( X 2 ) = 1. 8850 = .1150
6 0.0003 0.0008 0.0017
7
8
0.0000 0.0001 0.0002
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
= n p = (20 )(. 06 ) = 1. 20
20
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 = n p q = (20 )(. 06 )(. 94 ) = 1.128
2
= = 1.128 = 1. 062
2
35
Excels Binomial Function
n =20
p =0.06
X P(X)
0 =BINOMDIST(A5,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
1 =BINOMDIST(A6,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
2 =BINOMDIST(A7,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
3 =BINOMDIST(A8,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
4 =BINOMDIST(A9,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
5 =BINOMDIST(A10,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
6 =BINOMDIST(A11,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
7 =BINOMDIST(A12,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
8 =BINOMDIST(A13,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
9 =BINOMDIST(A14,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
36
Graphs of Selected Binomial
Distributions
n = 4 PROBABILITY 1.000
P = 0.5
P(X)
0.400
0.300
2 0.049 0.375 0.049 0.200
0.100
3 0.004 0.250 0.292 0.000
0 1 2 3 4
4 0.000 0.063 0.656 X
P = 0.1 P = 0.9
1.000 1.000
0.900 0.900
0.800 0.800
0.700 0.700
0.600 0.600
0.500 0.500
P(X)
P(X)
0.400 0.400
0.300 0.300
0.200 0.200
0.100 0.100
0.000 0.000
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4
X X
37
Example:
Purchasing magazine reported the result of a survey in which
buyers were asked a series of questions with regard to Internet
usages. One question asked was how they would use the Internet
if security and other issue could be resolved. 78% said they
would use it for pricing information, 75% said they would use it to
send purchase orders, and 70% said they would use it for
purchase order acknowledgements. Assume that these
percentages hold true for all buyers. A researcher randomly
samples 20 buyers and asks them how they would use the
Internet if security and other issues could be resolved.
38
Questions:
What is the probability that exactly 14 of
these buyers would use the Internet for
pricing information?
What is the probability that all of the
buyers would-use the Internet to send
purchase orders?
What is probability that fewer than 12
would use the Internet for purchase order
acknowledgements?
39
Solution:
a) n = 20 p = .78 x = 14
20
C14 (.78)14(.22)6 = 38,760(.030855)(.00011338)
= .1356
b) n = 20 p = .75 x = 20
20
C20 (.75)20(.25)0 = (1)(.0031712)(1) = .0032
c) n = 20 p = .70 x < 12
Use table A.2:
P(x=0) + P(x=1) + . . . + P(x=11) =
x Prob
9 .084
10 .039
11 .014
12 .004
13 .001
.142
42
p(3 < x < 6):
x Prob
3 .047
4 .101
5 .162
6 .198
.508
n = 13 p = .88
43
Question 5.22
Harley Davidson, director of quality control for the Kyoto motor
company is conducting his monthly spot check of automatic
transmissions. In this procedure, 10 transmissions are removed
from the pool of components and are checked for manufacturing
defects. Historically, only 2 percent of the transmissions have such
flows. (Assume that flaws occur independently in different
transmissions.)
(a) What is the probability that Harleys sample contains more than
two transmissions with manufacturing flaws? (Do not use the
tables.)
44
Question 5.23
Diane Burns is the mayor of a large city. Lately, she has become
concerned about the possibility that large numbers of people who are
drawing unemployment checks are secretly employed. Her assistants
estimate that 40 percent of unemployment beneficiaries fall into this
category, but Ms. Bruns is not convinced. She asks one of her aides
to conduct a quite investigation of 10 randomly selected
unemployment beneficiaries.
(a) If the mayers assistants are correct, what is the probability that
more than eight of individuals investigated have jobs?
(b) If the mayors assistants are correct, what is the probability that
only three of the investigated have jobs?
45
Poisson Distribution
Describes discrete occurrences over a
continuum or interval
A discrete distribution
Describes rare events
Each occurrence is independent any
other occurrences.
The number of occurrences in each
interval can vary from zero to infinity.
The expected number of occurrences
must hold constant throughout the
experiment.
46
Poisson Distribution:
Applications
Arrivals at queuing systems
airports -- people, airplanes, automobiles,
baggage
banks -- people, automobiles, loan
applications
computer file servers -- read and write
operations
Defects in manufactured goods
number of defects per 1,000 feet of extruded
copper wire
number of blemishes per square foot of
painted surface
number of errors per typed page
47
Poisson Distribution
Probability function
e
X
48
Problem:
49
Solution:
P(X) = P(X) =
X X
e e
X! X!
10 6.4 6 6.4
50
Poisson Distribution: Probability Table
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0 3.2 6.4 6.5 7.0 8.0
0 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.0498 0.0408 0.0017 0.0015 0.0009 0.0003
1 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.1494 0.1304 0.0106 0.0098 0.0064 0.0027
2 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.2240 0.2087 0.0340 0.0318 0.0223 0.0107
3 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240 0.2226 0.0726 0.0688 0.0521 0.0286
4 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680 0.1781 0.1162 0.1118 0.0912 0.0573
5 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008 0.1140 0.1487 0.1454 0.1277 0.0916
6 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.0504 0.0608 0.1586 0.1575 0.1490 0.1221
7 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216 0.0278 0.1450 0.1462 0.1490 0.1396
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081 0.0111 0.1160 0.1188 0.1304 0.1396
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027 0.0040 0.0825 0.0858 0.1014 0.1241
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008 0.0013 0.0528 0.0558 0.0710 0.0993
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0004 0.0307 0.0330 0.0452 0.0722
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0164 0.0179 0.0263 0.0481
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0081 0.0089 0.0142 0.0296
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0037 0.0041 0.0071 0.0169
15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0016 0.0018 0.0033 0.0090
16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0007 0.0014 0.0045
17 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0003 0.0006 0.0021
18 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0009
51
Poisson Distribution: Using the
Poisson Tables
If a real estate office sells 1.6 houses on an
average weekday and sales of houses on
weekdays are Poisson distributed, what is the
probability of selling exactly four houses in one
day? What is the probability of selling no houses
in one day? What is the probability of selling more
than five houses in one day? What is the
probability of selling 2 or more houses in one
day?
52
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0
0
1
0.6065
0.3033
0.2231
0.3347
0.2019
0.3230
0.0498
0.1494
= 1. 6
P( X = 4 ) = 0. 0551
2 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.2240
3 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240
4 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680
5 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008
6 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.0504
7 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
53
Poisson Distribution:
Using the Poisson Tables
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0
0 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.0498
1 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.1494
2 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.2240
3 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240
4 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680
5 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008
6 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.0504
7 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
= 1. 6
P( X > 5) = P( X = 6) + P( X = 7) + P( X = 8) + P( X = 9)
=. 0047 +. 0011 +. 0002 +. 0000 =. 0060
54
Poisson Distribution: Using the
Poisson Tables
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0
0 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.0498
1 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.1494
2 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.2240
3 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240
4 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680
5 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008
6 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.0504
7 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
= 1. 6
P( X 2) = 1 P( X < 2) = 1 P( X = 0) P( X = 1)
= 1. 2019 . 3230 =. 4751
55
Poisson Distribution: Graphs
= 1. 6
0.35
0.30
0.16
= 6. 5
0.14
0.25 0.12
0.20 0.10
0.08
0.15
0.06
0.10
0.04
0.05 0.02
0.00 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
56
Problem:
57
= 5.6 days3 weeks
a) Prob(x=0 = 5.6):
b) Prob(x=6 = 5.6):
What is the probability that fewer than four of them did not
see a doctor?
59
Solution:
n = 300, p = .01, = n(p) = 300(.01) = 3
a) Prob(x = 5):
Using = 3 and Table A.3 = .1008
b) Prob (x < 4)
= Prob.(x = 0) + Prob.(x = 1) + Prob.(x = 2)
+ Prob.(x = 3)
= .0498 + .1494 + .2240 + .2240 = .6472
60
Problem:
The average number of annual trips per family to
amusement parks in the United State is Poisson
distributed, with a mean of 0.6 trips per year. What is the
probability of randomly selecting an American family and
finding the following:
62
c) Prob(x > 2 = 0.6):
from Table A.3
x Prob.
2 .0988
3 .0198
4 .0030
5 .0004
6 .0000
x > 2 .1220
63
Prob(x < 3 3 year period):
The interval length has been increased (3
times)
New Lambda = = 1.8 trips3 years
64
Prob(x=4 6 years):
The interval has been increased (6 times)
Prob(x=4 = 3.6):
65
Problem:
Ship collisions in the Houston Ship Channel are rare. Suppose the
numbers of collisions are Poisson distributed, with the mean of 1.2
collisions every four months.
66
Solution:
= 1.2 collisions4 months
a) Prob(x=0 = 1.2):
b) Prob(x=2 2 months):
Prob(x=2 = 0.6):
67
Prob (x < 1 collision6 months):
The interval length has been increased (by 1.5)
x< 1 .4628
The result is likely to happen almost half the time (46.26%). Ship channel
and weather conditions are about normal for this period. Safety awareness
is about normal for this period. There is no compelling reason to reject the
lambda value of 0.6 collisions per 4 months based on an outcome of 0 or 1
collision per 6 months.
68
Problem:
A pen company arranges 1.2 defective pens per carton
produced (200 pens). The number of defects per carton
is Poisson distributed.
69
= 1.2 penscarton
a) Prob(x=0 = 1.2):
70
Prob(x > 3 = 1.2):
from Table A.3 x Prob.
4 .0260
5 .0062
6 .0012
7 .0002
8 .0000
x > 3 .0336
71
Question:
A high percentage of people who fracture or dislocate
a bone see a doctor for that condition. Suppose the
percentage is 99%. Consider a sample in which 300
people are randomly selected who have fractured or
dislocated a bone.
What is the probability that exactly five of them did not see a
doctor?
What is the probability that fewer than four of them did not see a
doctor?
72
n = 300, p = .01, = n(p) = 300(.01) = 3
a) Prob(x = 5):
Using = 3 and Table A.3 = .1008
73
Excels Poisson Function
=1.6
X P(X)
0 =POISSON(D5,E$1,FALSE)
1 =POISSON(D6,E$1,FALSE)
2 =POISSON(D7,E$1,FALSE)
3 =POISSON(D8,E$1,FALSE)
4 =POISSON(D9,E$1,FALSE)
5 =POISSON(D10,E$1,FALSE)
6 =POISSON(D11,E$1,FALSE)
7 =POISSON(D12,E$1,FALSE)
8 =POISSON(D13,E$1,FALSE)
9 =POISSON(D14,E$1,FALSE)
74
Poisson Approximation
of the Binomial Distribution
Binomial probabilities are difficult to
calculate when n is large.
Under certain conditions binomial
probabilities may be approximated by
Poisson probabilities.
If n > 20 and n p 7, the approximation is acceptable .
75
Poisson Approximation
of the Binomial Distribution
Binomial
Binomial
Poisson n = 10, 000
Poisson n = 50
X = 1. 5 p =. 03 Error
X = 3. 0 p =. 0003 Error
0 0.0498 0.0498 0.0000
0 0.2231 0.2181 -0.0051
1 0.1494 0.1493 0.0000
1 0.3347 0.3372 0.0025
2 0.2240 0.2241 0.0000
2 0.2510 0.2555 0.0045
3 0.2240 0.2241 0.0000
3 0.1255 0.1264 0.0009
4 0.1680 0.1681 0.0000
4 0.0471 0.0459 -0.0011
5 0.0141 0.0131 -0.0010 5 0.1008 0.1008 0.0000
6 0.0035 0.0030 -0.0005 6 0.0504 0.0504 0.0000
7 0.0008 0.0006 -0.0002 7 0.0216 0.0216 0.0000
8 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000 8 0.0081 0.0081 0.0000
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 9 0.0027 0.0027 0.0000
10 0.0008 0.0008 0.0000
11 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000
12 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
76
Question 5-31
Concert pianist Donna Prima has become quite upset
at the number of coughs occurring in the audience
just before she begins to play. On her latest tour,
Donna estimates that on average eight coughs occur
just before the start of her performance. Ms. Prima
has sworn to her conductor that if she hears more
than five coughs at tonights performance, she will
refuse to play. What is the Probability that she will
play tonight?
77
Question 5-32
78