Great Leap Forward

10/10/2017 Great Leap Forward - Wikipedia
Great Leap Forward

The Great Leap Forward (Chinese: ; pinyin: D Yujn) of the
People's Republic of China (PRC) was an economic and social campaign Great Leap Forward
by the Communist Party of China (CPC) from 1958 to 1962. The
campaign was led by Chairman Mao Zedong and aimed to rapidly
transform the country from an agrarian economy into a socialist society
through rapid industrialization and collectivization. However, it is widely
considered to have caused the Great Chinese Famine.
Chief changes in the lives of rural Chinese included the incremental "Great Leap Forward" in Simplified (top)
introduction of mandatory agricultural collectivization. Private farming and Traditional (bottom) Chinese
was prohibited, and those engaged in it were persecuted and labeled
characters
counter-revolutionaries. Restrictions on rural people were enforced
through public struggle sessions and social pressure, although people also Simplified Chinese
experienced forced labor.[1] Rural industrialization, officially a priority of Traditional Chinese
the campaign, saw "its development... aborted by the mistakes of the Great
Leap Forward."[2] Transcriptions
Standard Mandarin
It is widely regarded by historians that The Great Leap resulted in tens of
Hanyu Pinyin D Yujn
millions of deaths.[3] A lower-end estimate is 18 million, while extensive
research by Yu Xiguang suggests the death toll from the movement is WadeGiles Ta4 yeh4 chin4
closer to 55 million.[4] Historian Frank Diktter asserts that "coercion, IPA [t tn]
terror, and systematic violence were the foundation of the Great Leap
Yue: Cantonese
Forward" and it "motivated one of the most deadly mass killings of human
history".[5] Yale Romanization Daaih yeuk jeun
Jyutping Daai6 joek3 zeon3
The years of the Great Leap Forward saw economic regression, with 1958
through 1962 being the only period (other than the Cultural Revolution) Southern Min
[6]
between 1953 and 1976 in which China's economy shrank. Political Ti-l Tu iok tsn
economist Dwight Perkins argues, "enormous amounts of investment
produced only modest increases in production or none at all. ... In short, the Great Leap was a very expensive
disaster."[7]
In subsequent conferences in March 1960 and May 1962, the negative effects of the Great Leap Forward were
studied by the CPC, and Mao was criticized in the party conferences. Moderate Party members like President Liu
Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping rose to power, and Chairman Mao was marginalized within the party, leading him to
initiate the Cultural Revolution in 1966.
Contents
1 Background
1.1 Agricultural collectives and other social changes
1.2 Hundred Flowers Campaign and Anti-Rightist Campaign
1.3 Surpass the UK and US
2 Organizational and operational factors
2.1 People's communes
2.2 Industrialization
2.3 Backyard furnaces
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward 1/19
2.4 Irrigation
2.5 Crop experiments
2.6 Treatment of villagers
2.7 Lushan Conference
3 Consequences
3.1 Famine
3.1.1 Famine deaths
3.1.1.1 Methods of estimating the death toll and sources of error
3.1.2 Causes of the famine and responsibility
3.2 Deaths by violence
3.3 Impact on economy
3.4 Modes of resistance
3.5 Impact on the government
4 See also
5 References
6 Bibliography and further reading
7 External links
Background
In October 1949 after the defeat of the Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party, pinyin: Guomindang), the Chinese
Communist Party proclaimed the establishment of the People's Republic of China. Immediately, landlords and
wealthier peasants had their land holdings forcibly redistributed to poorer peasants. In the agricultural sectors,
crops deemed by the Party to be "full of evil", such as opium, were destroyed and replaced with crops such as rice.
Within the Party, there was major debate about redistribution. A moderate faction within the party and Politburo
member Liu Shaoqi argued that change should be gradual and any collectivization of the peasantry should wait
until industrialization, which could provide the agricultural machinery for mechanized farming. A more radical
faction led by Mao Zedong argued that the best way to finance industrialization was for the government to take
control of agriculture, thereby establishing a monopoly over grain distribution and supply. This would allow the
state to buy at a low price and sell much higher, thus raising the capital necessary for the industrialization of the
country.
Agricultural collectives and other social changes
Before 1949, peasants had farmed their own small pockets of land, and observed traditional practicesfestivals,
banquets, and paying homage to ancestors.[1] It was realized that Mao's policy of using a state monopoly on
agriculture to finance industrialization would be unpopular with the peasants. Therefore, it was proposed that the
peasants should be brought under Party control by the establishment of agricultural collectives which would also
facilitate the sharing of tools and draft animals.[1]
This policy was gradually pushed through between 1949 and 1958 in response to immediate policy needs, first by
establishing "mutual aid teams" of 515 households, then in 1953 "elementary agricultural cooperatives" of 2040
households, then from 1956 in "higher co-operatives" of 100300 families. From 1954 onward peasants were
encouraged to form and join collective-farming associations, which would supposedly increase their efficiency
without robbing them of their own land or restricting their livelihoods.[1]
By 1958 private ownership was entirely abolished and households all over China were forced into state-operated
communes. Mao insisted that the communes must produce more grain for the cities and earn foreign exchange
from exports.[1] These reforms (sometimes now referred to as The Great Leap Forward) were generally unpopular
with the peasants and usually implemented by summoning

them to meetings and making them stay there for days and
sometimes weeks until they "voluntarily" agreed to join the
collective.
Apart from progressive taxation on each household's harvest,

the state introduced a system of compulsory state purchases of
grain at fixed prices to build up stockpiles for famine-relief
and meet the terms of its trade agreements with the Soviet
Union. Together, taxation and compulsory purchases
accounted for 30 percent of the harvest by 1957, leaving very
little surplus. Rationing was also introduced in the cities to
curb 'wasteful consumption' and encourage savings (which
were deposited in state-owned banks and thus became
available for investment), and although food could be Sending government officials to work in the
purchased from state-owned retailers the market price was countryside, 1957.
higher than that for which it had been purchased. This too was
done in the name of discouraging excessive consumption.
Besides these economic changes the Party implemented major social changes in the countryside including the
banishing of all religious and mystic institutions and ceremonies and replacing them with political meetings and
propaganda sessions. Attempts were made to enhance rural education and the status of women (allowing them to
initiate divorce if they desired) and ending foot-binding, child marriage and opium addiction. The old system of
internal passports (the hukou) were introduced in 1956, preventing inter-county travel without appropriate
authorization. Highest priority was given to the urban proletariat for whom a welfare state was created.
The first phase collectivization resulted in only modest improvements in output. Famine along the mid-Yangzi was
averted in 1956 through the timely allocation of food-aid, but in 1957 the Party's response was to increase the
proportion of the harvest collected by the state to insure against further disasters. Moderates within the Party,
including Zhou Enlai, argued for a reversal of collectivization on the grounds that claiming the bulk of the harvest
for the state had made the people's food-security dependent upon the constant, efficient, and transparent
functioning of the government.
Hundred Flowers Campaign and Anti-Rightist Campaign
In 1957 Mao responded to the tensions in the Party by promoting free speech and criticism under the Hundred
Flowers Campaign. In retrospect, some have come to argue that this was a ploy to allow critics of the regime,
primarily intellectuals but also low ranking members of the party critical of the agricultural policies, to identify
themselves.[8]
By the completion of the first 5 Year Economic Plan in 1957, Mao had come to doubt that the path to socialism that
had been taken by the Soviet Union was appropriate for China. He was critical of Khrushchev's reversal of Stalinist
policies and alarmed by the uprisings that had taken place in East Germany, Poland and Hungary, and the
perception that the USSR was seeking "peaceful coexistence" with the Western powers. Mao had become
convinced that China should follow its own path to communism. According to Jonathan Mirsky, a historian and
journalist specializing in Chinese affairs, China's isolation from most of the rest of the world, along with the
Korean War, had accelerated Mao's attacks on his perceived domestic enemies. It led him to accelerate his designs
to develop an economy where the regime would get maximum benefit from rural taxation.[1]
Surpass the UK and US
In November 1957, to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the October Revolution, party leaders of the communist
countries gathered in Moscow. The first Secretary of the Central Committee Nikita Khrushchev proposed a goal to
not only catch up with but exceed the United States in industrial output in the next 15 years through peaceful
competition. Mao Zedong was so inspired by the slogan that China put forward its own objective: to catch up with
and surpass the UK in 15 years.
Comrade Khrushchev has told us, the Soviet Union 15 years later will surpass the United States of
America. I can also say, 15 years later, we may catch up with or exceed the UK.[9]
Organizational and operational factors

The Great Leap Forward campaign began during the period of the Second Five Year Plan which was scheduled to
run from 1958 to 1963, though the campaign itself was discontinued by 1961.[10][11] Mao unveiled the Great Leap
Forward at a meeting in January 1958 in Nanjing.
The central idea behind the Great Leap was that rapid development of China's agricultural and industrial sectors
should take place in parallel. The hope was to industrialize by making use of the massive supply of cheap labour
and avoid having to import heavy machinery. The government also sought to avoid both social stratification and
technical bottlenecks involved in the Soviet model of development, but sought political rather than technical
solutions to do so. Distrusting technical experts,[12] Mao and the party sought to replicate the strategies used in its
1930s regrouping in Yan'an following the Long March: "mass mobilization, social leveling, attacks on
bureaucratism, [and] disdain for material obstacles."[13] Mao advocated that a further round of collectivization
modeled on the USSR's "Third Period" was necessary in the countryside where the existing collectives would be
merged into huge People's Communes.
People's communes
An experimental commune was established at Chayashan in Henan in

April 1958. Here for the first time private plots were entirely abolished
and communal kitchens were introduced. At the Politburo meetings in
August 1958, it was decided that these people's communes would
become the new form of economic and political organization
throughout rural China. By the end of the year approximately 25,000
communes had been set up, with an average of 5,000 households each.
The communes were relatively self-sufficient co-operatives where
wages and money were replaced by work points.
Based on his fieldwork, Ralph A. Thaxton Jr. describes the people's

communes as a form of "apartheid system" for Chinese farm
households. The commune system was aimed at maximizing
production for provisioning the cities and constructing offices,
factories, schools, and social insurance systems for urban-dwelling
In the beginning, commune members were
workers, cadres and officials. Citizens in rural areas who criticized the
able to eat for free at the commune canteens.
system were labeled "dangerous." Escape was also difficult or
This changed when food production slowed
impossible, and those who attempted were subjected to "party- to a halt.
orchestrated public struggle," which further jeopardized their
survival.[14] Besides agriculture, communes also incorporated some
light industry and construction projects.
Industrialization
Mao saw grain and steel production as the key pillars of

economic development. He forecast that within 15 years of the
start of the Great Leap, China's industrial output would surpass
that of the UK. In the August 1958 Politburo meetings, it was
decided that steel production would be set to double within the
year, most of the increase coming through backyard steel
furnaces.[15] Major investments in larger state enterprises were
made in 195860: 1,587, 1,361, and 1,815 medium- and large-
scale state projects were started in 1958, 1959, and 1960
respectively, more in each year than in the first Five Year
Plan.[16]
Millions of Chinese became state workers as a consequence of

this industrial investment: in 1958, 21 million were added to
People in the countryside working at night to produce
non-agricultural state payrolls, and total state employment
steel.
reached a peak of 50.44 million in 1960, more than doubling
the 1957 level; the urban population swelled by 31.24 million
people.[17] These new workers placed major stress on China's
food-rationing system, which led to increased and unsustainable demands on rural food production.[17]
During this rapid expansion, coordination suffered and material shortages were frequent, resulting in "a huge rise
in the wage bill, largely for construction workers, but no corresponding increase in manufactured goods."[18]
Facing a massive deficit, the government cut industrial investment from 38.9 to 7.1 billion yuan from 1960 to 1962
(an 82 percent decrease; the 1957 level was 14.4 billion).[18]
Backyard furnaces
With no personal knowledge of metallurgy, Mao encouraged the establishment of small backyard steel furnaces in
every commune and in each urban neighborhood. Mao was shown an example of a backyard furnace in Hefei,
Anhui in September 1958 by provincial first secretary Zeng Xisheng.[19] The unit was claimed to be manufacturing
high quality steel.[19]
Huge efforts on the part of peasants and other workers were made to produce steel out of scrap metal. To fuel the
furnaces, the local environment was denuded of trees and wood taken from the doors and furniture of peasants'
houses. Pots, pans, and other metal artifacts were requisitioned to supply the "scrap" for the furnaces so that the
wildly optimistic production targets could be met. Many of the male agricultural workers were diverted from the
harvest to help the iron production as were the workers at many factories, schools, and even hospitals. Although
the output consisted of low quality lumps of pig iron which was of negligible economic worth, Mao had a deep
distrust of intellectuals who could have pointed this out and placed his faith in the power of the mass mobilization
of the peasants.
Moreover, the experience of the intellectual classes following the Hundred Flowers Campaign silenced those aware
of the folly of such a plan. According to his private doctor, Li Zhisui, Mao and his entourage visited traditional
steel works in Manchuria in January 1959 where he found out that high quality steel could only be produced in
large-scale factories using reliable fuel such as coal. However, he decided not to order a halt to the backyard steel
furnaces so as not to dampen the revolutionary enthusiasm of the masses. The program was only quietly abandoned
much later in that year.
Irrigation
Substantial effort was expended during the Great Leap Forward on

large-scale, but often poorly planned capital construction projects,
such as irrigation works often built without input from trained
engineers. Mao was well aware of the human cost of these water-
conservancy campaigns. In early 1958, while listening to a report on
irrigation in Jiangsu, he mentioned that:
Wu Zhipu claims he can move 30 billion cubic metres; I

think 30,000 people will die. Zeng Xisheng has said that
he will move 20 billion cubic metres, and I think that
20,000 people will die. Weiqing only promises 600
million cubic metres, maybe nobody will die.[20][21]
Though Mao "criticized the excessive use of corve for large-scale

water conservancy projects" in late 1958,[22] mass mobilization on
irrigation works continued unabated for the next several years, and
claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of exhausted, starving
villagers.[20] The inhabitants of Qingshui and Gansu referred to these
Backyard furnaces in China during the Great
projects as the "killing fields."[20]
Leap Forward era.
Crop experiments
On the communes, a number of radical and controversial agricultural innovations were promoted at the behest of
Mao. Many of these were based on the ideas of now discredited Soviet agronomist Trofim Lysenko and his
followers. The policies included close cropping, whereby seeds were sown far more densely than normal on the
incorrect assumption that seeds of the same class would not compete with each other.[23] Deep plowing (up to 2 m
deep) was encouraged on the mistaken belief that this would yield plants with extra large root systems. Moderately
productive land was left unplanted with the belief that concentrating manure and effort on the most fertile land
would lead to large per-acre productivity gains. Altogether, these untested innovations generally led to decreases in
grain production rather than increases.[24]
Meanwhile, local leaders were pressured into falsely reporting ever-higher grain production figures to their
political superiors. Participants at political meetings remembered production figures being inflated up to 10 times
actual production amounts as the race to please superiors and win plauditslike the chance to meet Mao himself
intensified. The state was later able to force many production groups to sell more grain than they could spare based
on these false production figures.[25]
Treatment of villagers
The ban on private holdings ruined peasant life at its most basic level, according to Mirsky. Villagers were unable
to secure enough food to go on living because they were deprived by the commune system of their traditional
means of being able to rent, sell, or use their land as collateral for loans.[1] In one village, once the commune was
operational the Party boss and his colleagues "swung into manic action, herding villagers into the fields to sleep
and to work intolerable hours, and forcing them to walk, starving, to distant additional projects."[1]
Edward Friedman, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Paul Pickowicz, a historian at the University
of California, San Diego, and Mark Selden, a sociologist at Binghamton University, wrote about the dynamic of
interaction between the Party and villagers:
Beyond attack, beyond question,

was the systemic and structured
dynamic of the socialist state that
intimidated and impoverished
millions of patriotic and loyal
villagers.[26]
The authors present a similar picture to

Thaxton in depicting the Communist Party's
destruction of the traditions of Chinese
Commune members working fields at night using lamps.
villagers. Traditionally prized local customs
were deemed signs of "feudalism" to be
extinguished, according to Mirsky. "Among
them were funerals, weddings, local markets, and festivals. The Party thus destroyed "much that gave meaning to
Chinese lives. These private bonds were social glue. To mourn and to celebrate is to be human. To share joy, grief,
and pain is humanizing."[27] Failure to participate in the CPC's political campaignsthough the aims of such
campaigns were often conflicting"could result in detention, torture, death, and the suffering of entire
families."[27]
Public criticism sessions were often used to intimidate the peasants into obeying local cadres; they increased the
death rate of the famine in several ways, according to Thaxton. "In the first case, blows to the body caused internal
injuries that, in combination with physical emaciation and acute hunger, could induce death." In one case, after a
peasant stole two cabbages from the common fields, the thief was publicly criticized for half a day. He collapsed,
fell ill, and never recovered. Others were sent to labor camps.[28]
Frank Diktter writes that beatings with sticks was the most common method used by local cadres and roughly half
of all cadres regularly pummeled or caned people. Other cadres devised harsher means to humiliate and torture
those who failed to keep up. As mass starvation set in, ever greater violence had to be inflicted in order to coerce
malnourished people to labor in the fields. Victims were buried alive, thrown bound into ponds, stripped naked and
forced to labor in the middle of winter, doused in boiling water, forced to ingest excrement and urine, and subjected
to mutilation (hair ripped out, noses and ears lopped off). In Guangdong, some cadres injected salt water into their
victims with needles normally reserved for cattle.[29] Around 6 to 8 percent of those who died during the Great
Leap Forward were tortured to death or summarily killed.[30]
Benjamin Valentino notes that "communist officials sometimes tortured and killed those accused of failing to meet
their grain quota."[31]
However, J. G. Mahoney, Professor of Liberal Studies and East Asian Studies at Grand Valley State University, has
said that "there is too much diversity and dynamism in the country for one work to capture ... rural China as if it
were one place." Mahoney describes an elderly man in rural Shanxi who recalls Mao fondly, saying "Before Mao
we sometimes ate leaves, after liberation we did not." Regardless, Mahoney points out that Da Fo villagers recall
the Great Leap as a period of famine and death, and among those who survived in Da Fo were precisely those who
could digest leaves.[32]
Lushan Conference
The initial impact of the Great Leap Forward was discussed at the Lushan Conference in July/August 1959.
Although many of the more moderate leaders had reservations about the new policy, the only senior leader to speak
out openly was Marshal Peng Dehuai. Mao responded to Peng's criticism of the Great Leap by dismissing Peng
from his post as Defence Minister, denouncing Peng (who came from a poor peasant family) and his supporters as
"bourgeois," and launching a nationwide campaign against "rightist opportunism." Peng was replaced by Lin Biao,
who began a systematic purge of Peng's supporters from the military.
Consequences
The failure of agricultural policies, the
movement of farmers from agricultural
to industrial work, and weather
conditions led to millions of deaths
from severe famine. Many also died
from quota-based executions instituted
by government officials. The economy,
which had improved since the end of
the civil war, was devastated. In
response to the severe conditions, there
was resistance among the populace.
The effects on the upper levels of

government in response to the disaster
were complex, with Mao purging the China's birth and death rate.
Minister of National Defense Peng
Dehuai in 1959, the temporary
promotion of Lin Biao, Liu Shaoqi, and Deng Xiaoping, and Mao losing some power and prestige following the
Great Leap Forward, which led him to launch the Cultural Revolution in 1966.
Famine
Despite the harmful agricultural innovations, the weather in 1958 was very favorable and the harvest promised to
be good. Unfortunately, the amount of labour diverted to steel production and construction projects meant that
much of the harvest was left to rot uncollected in some areas. This problem was exacerbated by a devastating
locust swarm, which was caused when their natural predators were killed as part of the Great Sparrow Campaign.
Although actual harvests were reduced, local officials, under tremendous pressure from central authorities to report
record harvests in response to the innovations, competed with each other to announce increasingly exaggerated
results. These were used as a basis for determining the amount of grain to be taken by the State to supply the towns
and cities, and to export. This left barely enough for the peasants, and in some areas, starvation set in. A 1959
drought and flooding from the Yellow River in the same year also contributed to famine.
During 19581960 China continued to be a substantial net exporter of grain, despite the widespread famine
experienced in the countryside, as Mao sought to maintain face and convince the outside world of the success of
his plans. Foreign aid was refused. When the Japanese foreign minister told his Chinese counterpart Chen Yi of an
offer of 100,000 tonnes of wheat to be shipped out of public view, he was rebuffed. John F. Kennedy was also
aware that the Chinese were exporting food to Africa and Cuba during the famine and said "we've had no
indication from the Chinese Communists that they would welcome any offer of food."[33]
With dramatically reduced yields, even urban areas suffered much reduced rations; however, mass starvation was
largely confined to the countryside, where, as a result of drastically inflated production statistics, very little grain
was left for the peasants to eat. Food shortages were bad throughout the country; however, the provinces which had
adopted Mao's reforms with the most vigor, such as Anhui, Gansu and Henan, tended to suffer disproportionately.
Sichuan, one of China's most populous provinces, known in China as "Heaven's Granary" because of its fertility, is
thought to have suffered the greatest absolute numbers of

deaths from starvation due to the vigor with which provincial
leader Li Jinquan undertook Mao's reforms. During the Great
Leap Forward, cases of cannibalism also occurred in the parts
of China that were severely affected by famine.[34][35]
The agricultural policies of the Great Leap Forward and the

associated famine continued until January 1961, when, at the
Ninth Plenum of the Eighth Central Committee, the restoration
of agricultural production through a reversal of the Great Leap
policies was started. Grain exports were stopped, and imports
from Canada and Australia helped to reduce the impact of the
food shortages, at least in the coastal cities.
The Eurasian tree sparrow was the most notable target
Famine deaths of the Four Pests Campaign.
The exact
Great Leap Forward famine death estimates
number of
famine deaths Deaths
Author(s) Year
is difficult to (millions)
determine, and 23 Peng[36] 1987
estimates range
from upwards 27 Coale[37] 1984
of 30 million, 30 Ashton, et al.[38] 1984
to 55 million
people.[45][4] 30 Banister[39] 1987
Because of the 30 Becker[40] 1996
uncertainties
involved in 32.5 Cao[41] 2005
estimating
36 Yang[42] 2008
famine deaths
caused by the 38 Chang and Halliday[43] 2005
Great Leap
38 Rummel[44] 2008
Forward or any
famine, it is 45 minimum Diktter[45][46] 2010
difficult to
43 to 46 Chen[47] 1980
compare the
severity of 55 Yu Xiguang[4][48] 2005
different
famines. However, if a mid-estimate of 30 million deaths is accepted, the Great Leap Forward was the deadliest
famine in the history of China and in the history of the world.[38][49] This was in part due to Chinas large
population; in the Great Irish Famine, approximately 1 million[50] of a population of 8 million people died, or 12.5
percent. In the Great Chinese Famine approximately 30 million of a population of 600 million people died, or 5
percent.
The Great Leap Forward reversed the downward trend in mortality that had occurred since 1950,[37] though even
during the Leap, mortality may not have reached pre-1949 levels.[51] Famine deaths and the reduction in number of
births caused the population of China to drop in 1960 and 1961.[52] This was only the third time in 600 years that
the population of China had decreased.[53] After the Great Leap Forward, mortality rates decreased to below pre-
Leap levels and the downward trend begun in 1950 continued.[37]
The severity of the famine varied from region to region. By correlating the increase in death rates of different
provinces, Peng Xizhe found that Gansu, Sichuan, Guizhou, Hunan, Guangxi, and Anhui were the worst-hit
regions, while Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tianjin, and Shanghai had the lowest increase in death rate
during the Great Leap Forward (there was no data for Tibet).[54] Peng also noted that the increase in death rate in
urban areas was about half the increase in rural areas.[54] Fuyang, a region in Anhui with a population of 8 million
in 1958, had a death rate that rivaled Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge;[55] more than 2.4 million people perished
there over three years.[56] In Gao Village in Jiangxi Province there was a famine, but no one actually died of
starvation.[57]
Methods of estimating the death toll and sources of error
The number of famine deaths during Great Leap Forward has been estimated by different methods. Banister, Coale,
and Ashton et al. compare age cohorts from the 1953, 1964, and 1982 censuses, yearly birth and death records, and
results of the 1982 1:1000 fertility survey. From these they calculate excess deaths above a death rate interpolated
between pre- and post-Leap death rates. All involve corrections for perceived errors inherent in the different data
sets.[58][59][60] Peng uses reported deaths from the vital statistics of 14 provinces, adjusts 10 percent for under
reporting, and expands the result to cover all of China assuming similar mortality rates in the other provinces. He
uses 1956/57 death rates as the baseline death rate rather than an interpolation between pre- and post-GLF death
rates.[61]
Cao uses information from "local annals" to determine for each locality the expected population increase from
normal births and deaths, the population increase due to migration, and the loss of population between 1958 and
1961. He then adds the three figures to determine the number of excess deaths during the period 19591961.[62]
Chang and Halliday use death rates determined by "Chinese demographers" for the years 19571963, subtract the
average of the pre-and post-Leap death rates (1957, 1962, and 1963) from the death rates of each of the years
19581961, and multiply each yearly excess death rate by the year's population to determine excess deaths.[63]
Chen was part of a large investigation by the System Reform Institute think tank (Tigaisuo) which "visited every
province and examined internal Party documents and records."[64]
Becker, Rummel, Diktter, and Yang each compare several earlier estimates. Becker considers Banister's estimate
of 30 million excess deaths to be "the most reliable estimate we have".[40] Rummel initially took Coale's 27 million
as a "most likely figure",[65] then accepted the later estimate of 38 million by Chang and Halliday after it was
published.[66] Diktter judged Chen's estimate of 43 to 46 million to be "in all likelihood a reliable estimate."[67]
Yang takes Cao's, Wang Weizhi's, and Jin Hui's estimates ranging from 32.5 to 35 million excess deaths for the
period 19591961, adds his own estimates for 1958 (0.42 million) and 1962 (2.23 million) "based on official
figures reported by the provinces" to get 35 to 37 million, and chooses 36 million as a number that "approaches the
reality but is still too low."[42]
Estimates contain several sources of error. National census data was not accurate and even the total population of
China at the time was not known to within 50 million to 100 million people.[68] The statistical reporting system
had been taken over by party cadre from statisticians in 1957,[69] making political considerations more important
than accuracy and resulting in a complete breakdown in the statistical reporting system.[69][70][71][72][73]
Population figures were routinely inflated at the local level, often in order to obtain increased rations of goods.[67]
During the Cultural Revolution, a great deal of the material in the State Statistical Bureau was burned.[69]
Under-reporting of deaths was also a problem. The death registration system, which was inadequate before the
famine,[74] was completely overwhelmed by the large number of deaths during the famine.[74][75][76] In addition,
many deaths went unreported so that family members of the deceased could continue to draw the deceased's food
ration. Counting the number of children who both were born and died between the 1953 and 1964 censuses is
problematic.[75] However, Ashton, et al. believe that because the reported number of births during the GLF seems
accurate, the reported number of deaths should be accurate as well.[77] Massive internal migration made both
population counts and registering deaths problematic,[75] though Yang believes the degree of unofficial internal
migration was small[78] and Cao's estimate takes internal migration into account.[62]
Coale's, Banister's, Ashton et al.'s, and Peng's figures all include adjustments for demographic reporting errors,
though Diktter believes that their results, as well as Chang and Halliday's, Yang's, and Cao's, are still
underestimates.[79] The System Reform Institute's (Chen's) estimate has not been published and therefore it cannot
be verified.[62]
Causes of the famine and responsibility
The policies of the Great Leap Forward, the failure of the government to respond quickly and effectively to famine
conditions, as well as Mao's insistence on maintaining high grain export quotas in the face of clear evidence of
poor crop output were responsible for the famine. There is disagreement over how much, if at all, weather
conditions contributed to the famine. Also there is considerable evidence the famine was intentional or due to
willful negligence.
Yang Jisheng, a long-time communist party member and a reporter for the official Chinese news agency Xinhua,
puts the blame squarely on Maoist policies and the political system of totalitarianism,[35] such as diverting
agricultural workers to steel production instead of growing crops, and exporting grain at the same time.[80][81]
During the course of his research, Yang uncovered that some 22 million tons of grain was held in public granaries
at the height of the famine, reports of the starvation went up the bureaucracy only to be ignored by top officials,
and the authorities ordered that statistics be destroyed in regions where population decline became evident.[82]
Economist Steven Rosefielde argues that Yang's account "shows that Mao's slaughter was caused in considerable
part by terror-starvation; that is, voluntary manslaughter (and perhaps murder) rather than innocuous famine."[83]
Yang notes that local party officials were indifferent to the large number of people dying around them, as their
primary concern was the delivery of grain, which Mao wanted to use to pay back debts to the USSR totaling 1.973
billion yuan. In Xinyang, people died of starvation at the doors of grain warehouses.[84] Mao refused to open the
state granaries as he dismissed reports of food shortages and accused the peasants of hiding grain.[85]
From his research into records and talks with experts at the meteorological bureau, Yang concludes that the
weather during the Great Leap Forward was not unusual compared to other periods and was not a factor.[86] Yang
also believes that the Sino-Soviet split was not a factor because it did not happen until 1960, when the famine was
well under way.[86]
Chang and Halliday argue that "Mao had actually allowed for many more deaths. Although slaughter was not his
purpose with the Leap, he was more than ready for myriad deaths to result, and had hinted to his top echelon that
they should not be too shocked if they happened."[87] Democide historian R.J. Rummel had originally classified
the famine deaths as unintentional.[88] In light of evidence provided in Chang and Hallidays book, he now believes
that the mass human deaths associated with the Great Leap Forward constitute democide.[89]
According to Frank Diktter, Mao and the Communist Party knew that some of their policies were contributing to
the starvation.[90] Foreign minister Chen Yi said of some of the early human losses in November 1958:[91]
Casualties have indeed appeared among workers, but it is not enough to stop us in our tracks. This is
the price we have to pay, it's nothing to be afraid of. Who knows how many people have been
sacrificed on the battlefields and in the prisons [for the revolutionary cause]? Now we have a few
cases of illness and death: it's nothing!
During a secret meeting in Shanghai in 1959, Mao demanded the state procurement of one-third of all grain to feed
the cities and satisfy foreign clients, and noted that "If you don't go above a third, people won't rebel." He also
stated at the same meeting:[92]
When there is not enough to eat people starve to death. It is better to let half of the people die so that
the other half can eat their fill.
Benjamin Valentino writes that like in the USSR during the famine of 193233, peasants were confined to their
starving villages by a system of household registration,[93] and the worst effects of the famine were directed against
enemies of the regime.[31] Those labeled as "black elements" (religious leaders, rightists, rich peasants, etc.) in any
previous campaign were given the lowest priority in the allocation of food, and therefore died in the greatest
numbers.[31] According to genocide scholar Adam Jones, "no group suffered more than the Tibetans", with perhaps
one in five dying from 1959 to 1962.[94]
Ashton, et al. write that policies leading to food shortages, natural disasters, and a slow response to initial
indications of food shortages were to blame for the famine.[95] Policies leading to food shortages included the
implementation of the commune system and an emphasis on non-agricultural activities such as backyard steel
production.[95] Natural disasters included drought, flood, typhoon, plant disease, and insect pest.[96] The slow
response was in part due to a lack of objective reporting on the agricultural situation,[97] including a "nearly
complete breakdown in the agricultural reporting system".[71]
This was partly caused by strong incentives for officials to over-report crop yields.[98] The unwillingness of the
Central Government to seek international aid was a major factor; China's net grain exports in 1959 and 1960 would
have been enough to feed 16 million people 2000 calories per day.[96] Ashton, et al. conclude that "It would not be
inaccurate to say that 30 million people died prematurely as a result of errors of internal policy and flawed
international relations."[97]
Mobo Gao suggested that the Great Leap Forwards terrible effects came not from malignant intent on the part of
the Chinese leadership at the time, but instead relate to the structural nature of its rule, and the vastness of China as
a country. Gao says "the terrible lesson learnt is that China is so huge and when it is uniformly ruled, follies or
wrong policies will have grave implications of tremendous magnitude".[57]
The PRC government's official web portal places the responsibility for the "serious losses" to "country and people"
of 19591961 (without mentioning famine) mainly on the Great Leap Forward and the anti-rightist struggle, and
lists weather and cancellation of contracts by the Soviet Union as contributing factors.[99]
Deaths by violence
Not all deaths during the Great Leap were from starvation. Frank Diktter estimates that at least 2.5 million people
were beaten or tortured to death and 1 to 3 million committed suicide.[100][46] He provides some illustrative
examples. In Xinyang, where over a million died in 1960, 67 percent (around 67,000) of these were beaten to
death by the militias. In Daoxian county, 10 percent of those who died had been "buried alive, clubbed to death or
otherwise killed by party members and their militia." In Shimen county, around 13,500 died in 1960, of these 12
percent were "beaten or driven to their deaths."[101] In accounts documented by Yang Jisheng,[35][42] people were
beaten or killed for rebelling against the government, reporting the real harvest numbers, for sounding alarm, for
refusing to hand over what little food they had left, for trying to flee the famine area, for begging food or as little as
stealing scraps or angering officials.
Impact on economy
During the Great Leap, the Chinese economy initially grew. Iron production increased 45 percent in 1958 and a
combined 30 percent over the next two years, but plummeted in 1961, and did not reach the previous 1958 level
until 1964.
The Great Leap also led to the greatest destruction of real estate in human history, outstripping any of the bombing
campaigns from World War II.[102] Approximately 30 to 40 percent of all houses were turned to rubble.[103] Frank
Diktter states that "homes were pulled down to make fertilizer, to build canteens, to relocate villagers, to
straighten roads, to make place for a better future beckoning ahead or simply to punish their owners.[102]
In agrarian policy, the failures of food supply during the Great Leap were met by a gradual de-collectivization in
the 1960s that foreshadowed further de-collectivization under Deng Xiaoping. Political scientist Meredith Jung-En
Woo argues: "Unquestionably the regime failed to respond in time to save the lives of millions of peasants, but
when it did respond, it ultimately transformed the livelihoods of several hundred million peasants (modestly in the
early 1960s, but permanently after Deng Xiaoping's reforms subsequent to 1978.)"[104]
Despite the risks to their careers, some Communist Party members openly laid blame for the disaster at the feet of
the Party leadership and took it as proof that China must rely more on education, acquiring technical expertise and
applying bourgeois methods in developing the economy. Liu Shaoqi made a speech in 1962 at Seven Thousand
Cadres Conference criticizing that "The economic disaster was 30% fault of nature, 70% human error."[105]
Modes of resistance
There were various forms of resistance to the Great Leap Forward. Several provinces saw armed rebellion,[106][107]
though these rebellions never posed a serious threat to the Central Government.[106] Rebellions are documented to
have occurred in Henan, Shandong, Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, Fujian, and Yunnan provinces and in the Tibetan
Autonomous Region.[108][109] In Henan, Shandong, Qinghai, Gansu, and Sichuan, these rebellions lasted more
than a year.[109] Aside from rebellions, there was also occasional violence against cadre members.[107][110] Raids
on granaries,[107][110] arson and other vandalism, train robberies, and raids on neighboring villages and counties
were common.[110]
According to over 20 years of research by Ralph Thaxton, professor of politics at Brandeis University, villagers
turned against the CPC during and after the Great Leap, seeing it as autocratic, brutal, corrupt, and mean-
spirited.[1] The CPC's policies, which included plunder, forced labor, and starvation, according to Thaxton, led
villagers "to think about their relationship with the Communist Party in ways that do not bode well for the
continuity of socialist rule."[1]
Often, villagers composed doggerel to show their defiance to the regime, and "perhaps, to remain sane." During the
Great Leap, one jingle ran: "Flatter shamelesslyeat delicacies.... Don't flatterstarve to death for sure."[27]
Impact on the government
Many local officials were tried and publicly executed for giving out misinformation.[111]
Mao stepped down as State Chairman of the PRC in 1959, though he did retain his position as Chairman of the
CCP. Liu Shaoqi (the new PRC Chairman) and reformist Deng Xiaoping (CPC General Secretary) were left in
charge to change policy to bring about economic recovery. Mao's Great Leap Forward policy came under open
criticism at the Lushan party conference. The attack was led by Minister of National Defense Peng Dehuai, who,
initially troubled by the potentially adverse effect of the Great Leap Forward on the modernization of the armed
forces, also admonished unnamed party members for trying to "jump into communism in one step." After the
Lushan showdown, Mao defensively replaced Peng with Lin Biao.
However, by 1962, it was clear that the general orientation of the party had changed to become more openly critical
of the extremist ideology that led to the Great Leap Forward. Throughout 1962, the party held a number of party
conferences and rehabilitated the majority of the deposed comrades who had criticized Mao in the aftermath of the
Great Leap Forward. The event was again discussed, with much self-criticism, with the contemporary government
calling it a "serious [loss] to our country and people" and blaming the cult of personality of Mao.
In particular, at the Seven Thousand Cadres Conference in January February 1962, Mao made a self-criticism and
re-affirmed his commitment to democratic centralism. In the years that followed, Mao mostly abstained from the
operations of government, making policy largely the domain of Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping. Maoist ideology
consequently took a back seat in the Communist Party, and only regained its foothold after Mao launched the
Cultural Revolution in 1966, which marked Mao's political comeback.
See also
Ryazan miracle
The Black Book of Communism
Virgin Lands Campaign, contemporary program in the Soviet Union
Maoist Massacres of Landlords
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the Nationalist government for the years 1936 and 1938 (27.6 and 28.2 per thousand, respectively).
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59. Coale (1984). pp. 1, 7.
60. Ashton, et al. (1984). pp. 613, 616619.
61. Peng (1987). pp. 645, 648649. Peng used the pre-Leap death rate as a base line under the assumption that
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108. Diktter (2010) pp. 226228 (Qinghai, Tibet, Yunnan).
109. Rummel (1991). pp. 247251 (Honan, Shantung, Qinghai (Chinghai), Gansu (Kansu), Szechuan
(Schechuan), Fujian), p. 240 (TAR).
110. Diktter (2010) pp. 224226.
111. Friedman, Edward; Pickowicz, Paul G.; Selden, Mark; and Johnson, Kay Ann (1993). Chinese Village,
Socialist State. Yale University Press. p. 243. ISBN 0300054289/ As seen in Google Book Search (https://bo
oks.google.com/books?vid=ISBN0300054289&id=GN2cXHxg_6oC&pg=PA243&lpg=PA243&dq=wu+zhi
pu+henan+xinyang&sig=N8jpvDEZe3NvS64YO0qa492A32k).
This article incorporates public domain text from the United States Library of Congress Country Studies.
China (http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/cntoc.html)
Bibliography and further reading

Ashton, Hill, Piazza, and Zeitz (1984). Famine in China, 195861. Population and Development Review,
Volume 10, Number 4 (Dec., 1984), pp. 613645.
Bachman, David (1991). Bureaucracy, Economy, and Leadership in China: The Institutional Origins of the
Great Leap Forward. New York: Cambridge University Press.
[Bao] Sansan and Bette Bao Lord (1964). Eighth Moon: The True Story of a Young Girl's Life in Communist
China, New York: Harper & Row.
Becker, Jasper (1998). Hungry Ghosts: Mao's Secret Famine (https://books.google.com/books?id=iC4g0gXB
mIkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Hungry+Ghosts:+Mao%27s+Secret+Famine#v=onepage&q=&f=false).
Holt Paperbacks. ISBN 0-8050-5668-8
Jung Chang and Jon Halliday. (2005) Mao: The Unknown Story, Knopf. ISBN 0-679-42271-4
Diktter, Frank (2010). Mao's Great Famine: The History of China's Most Devastating Catastrophe, 1958
62. Walker & Co. ISBN 0-8027-7768-6
Gao. Mobo (2007). Gao Village: Rural life in modern China. University of Hawaii Press. ISBN 978-0-8248-
3192-9
Gao. Mobo (2008). The Battle for China's Past. Pluto Press. ISBN 978-0-7453-2780-8
Li. Minqi (2009). The Rise of China and the Demise of the Capitalist World Economy. Monthly Review
Press. ISBN 978-1-58367-182-5
Li, Wei; Tao Yang, Dennis (2005). "The Great Leap Forward: Anatomy of a Central Planning Disaster".
Journal of Political Economy. 113 (4): 840877. doi:10.1086/430804 (https://doi.org/10.1086%2F430804).
Li, Zhisui (1996). The Private Life of Chairman Mao. Arrow Books Ltd.
Macfarquhar, Roderick (1983). Origins of the Cultural Revolution: Vol 2. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Short, Philip (2001). Mao: A Life (https://books.google.com/books?id=HQwoTtJ43_AC&dq=mao+a+life&e
i=EU6QScfyKYK2kwT0zqg2). Owl Books. ISBN 0-8050-6638-1
Tao Yang, Dennis. (2008) "China's Agricultural Crisis and Famine of 19591961: A Survey and Comparison
to Soviet Famines." (http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ces/journal/v50/n1/full/ces20084a.html) Palgrave
MacMillan, Comparative Economic Studies 50, pp. 129.
Thaxton. Ralph A. Jr (2008). Catastrophe and Contention in Rural China: Mao's Great Leap Forward
Famine and the Origins of Righteous Resistance in Da Fo Village (https://books.google.com/books?id=14A1
qPQOgQMC&source=gbs_navlinks_s). Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-72230-6
Wertheim, Wim F (1995). Third World whence and whither? Protective State versus Aggressive Market.
Amsterdam: Het Spinhuis. 211 pp. ISBN 90-5589-082-0
E. L Wheelwright, Bruce McFarlane, and Joan Robinson (Foreword), The Chinese Road to Socialism:
Economics of the Cultural Revolution.
Yang, Dali (1996). Calamity and Reform in China: State, Rural Society, and Institutional Change since the
Great Leap Famine. Stanford University Press.
Yang, Jisheng (2008). Tombstone (Mu Bei - Zhong Guo Liu Shi Nian Dai Da Ji Huang Ji Shi). Cosmos
Books (Tian Di Tu Shu), Hong Kong.
Yang, Jisheng (2010). "The Fatal Politics of the PRC's Great Leap Famine: The Preface to Tombstone".
Journal of Contemporary China. 19 (66): 755776. doi:10.1080/10670564.2010.485408 (https://doi.org/10.1
080%2F10670564.2010.485408).
External links
Ball, Joseph. Did Mao Really Kill Millions in the Great Leap Forward? (http://monthlyreview.org/commenta
ry/did-mao-really-kill-millions-in-the-great-leap-forward). Monthly Review. September 21, 2006
Chinese Governments Official Web Portal (English). China: a country with 5,000-year-long civilization (htt
ps://web.archive.org/web/20120601053642/http://english.gov.cn/2005-08/06/content_20912.htm).
Damiani, Matteo A tragic episode of cannibalism during the famine of the Great Leap Forward (http://www.
china-underground.com/magazine/a-tragic-episode-of-cannibalism-during-the-famine-of-the-great-leap-forw
ard-graphic-content). November 2012.
Dikotter, Frank. Mao's Great Leap to Famine (https://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/16/opinion/16iht-eddikotte
r16.html?_r=3), New York Times. December 15, 2010.
Johnson, Ian. Finding the Facts About Maos Victims (http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2010/dec/20/f
inding-facts-about-maos-victims/). The New York Review of Books (Blog), December 20, 2010.
McGregor, Richard. The man who exposed Maos secret famine. (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/6a148d26-7432
-11df-87f5-00144feabdc0.html#axzz16P9rrOuy) The Financial Times. June 12, 2010.
Meng, Qian, and Yared (2010) The Institutional Causes of China's Great Famine, 19591961 (http://www0.g
sb.columbia.edu/faculty/pyared/papers/famines.pdf) (pdf).
Wagner, Donald B. Background to the Great Leap Forward in Iron and Steel (http://donwagner.dk/MS-Engli
sh/MS-English.html) University of Copenhagen. August 2011.
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Agricultural collectives and other social changes

with the peasants and usually implemented by summoning

Apart from progressive taxation on each household's harvest,

Hundred Flowers Campaign and Anti-Rightist Campaign

Surpass the UK and US

Organizational and operational factors

An experimental commune was established at Chayashan in Henan in

Based on his fieldwork, Ralph A. Thaxton Jr. describes the people's

Mao saw grain and steel production as the key pillars of

Millions of Chinese became state workers as a consequence of

Substantial effort was expended during the Great Leap Forward on

Wu Zhipu claims he can move 30 billion cubic metres; I

Though Mao "criticized the excessive use of corve for large-scale

Beyond attack, beyond question,

The authors present a similar picture to

The effects on the upper levels of

thought to have suffered the greatest absolute numbers of

The agricultural policies of the Great Leap Forward and the

Methods of estimating the death toll and sources of error

Causes of the famine and responsibility

Impact on the government

68. Rummel (1991). p. 235.

Bibliography and further reading

Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Great_Leap_Forward&oldid=803016798"

This page was last edited on 29 September 2017, at 23:00.

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