AGGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR

Volume 22, pages 87-97 (1996)

Factors in Childhood That Predict Later

Criminal Behavior
Vappu Viemero

Department of Psychology, Abo Akademi Ur)iversity. Turku. Finland

A follow-up study was conducted on the aggressive and delinquent behavior of an origi-
nal sample of 220 pupils of two age groups. The subjects were 7 and 9 years old in 1978
when thev were interviewed for the firsl time. Tbe present paper focuses on predictors
of the subjects' aggressive and criminal behavior in adolescence and in young adult-
hood. Four different groups of variables were chosen as possible predictive factors: 1)
parental aggression, punitivity, and altitudes of rejection toward the child, 2) previous
acts of aggression by the subjects, 3) (he viewing of violence on television during child-
hood, and 4) aggressive, indifferent, and delinquent behavior in adolescence. Physical
aggression in adolescence and (he number of arrests and traffic violations in young
adulthood were used as dependent variables. The analyses established that for the male
subjects, the best predictor of physical aggression in adolescence was previous aggres-
sion, whereas for the female subjects tbe best predictor of physical aggression in adoles-
cence was previous viewing of violence on television. The number of arrests in young
adulthood was best predicted for the male subjects on the basis of previous aggression
and viewing of violence on television, Tbe best predictors of tbe number of arrests in
young adulthood for the female subjects were, apart from previous aggression and view-
ing of violence on television, also aggressive and delinquent behavior in adolescence as
well as parental aggression, punitivity, and attitudes of rejection. Tbe results emphasize
tbe importance of tbe atmosphere uf sociall/ation in cbildbood and previous aggressive
behavior as significant predictors of physical aggression in adolescence and criminal
behavior in young adulthood. 1996 witey-i.iss. inc.

Key words: criminal bebavior, delinquent behavior, aggression, punitivity, rejection, TV violence
viewing

INTRODUCTION
Finland has one of the highest living standards in the world with a social security
system and high educational level typical of the Nordic countries. However, Finland
has a high rate of criminality compared with other European countries. Also, the fre-
quency of crimes that pose a threat to life has been higher in Finland than in other

Received for publication November 4, 1994; accepted September 13, 1995.

Address reprint requests to Vappu Viemero, Department of Psychology, Abo Akademi University, FIN-
20500 Turku, Finland.

1996 Wilev-Liss, Inc.

88 Viemerd

Nordic or Central European countries over the past 50 years [Luntiala, 1988; Pajuoja,
1994;Tilastotietoja, 1991]. If the number of homicides per 100,000 inhabitants is com-
pared, the United States is 8th (8.5), Japan 43rd (0.6), and Finland the 15th in the world.
All other Scandinavian countries rank much lower than Finland. The overall victimiza-
tion rate (percentage ofthe public victimized by any crime) in Finland is 17.5-19.9%,
27.5-30.0% in the United States, and 12.4% in Japan [Wiio, 1994].
Extensive studies [Maccoby, 1986; McCord, 19861 have discovered environmental
variation concerning individual differences in aggression and juvenile delinquency.
Parents occupy a special position in a child's environment. The pervasive and enduring
effects ofthe family on antisocial development have also been shown [McCord, 1986].
In McCord's [ 1986] study, variables such as the degree of parental hostility, maternal
affection, and maternal permissiveness were predictors of later criminality. Other pre-
dictors of delinquent and criminal behavior include family criminality and economic
deprivation IFarrington, 1986], poor parental child rearing [Dishionetal., 1991;Vissing
et al., 1991], and delinquent friends [Brownfield and Thompson, 1991].
According to the studies carried out by Olweus [1980, 1986], aggressive and bully-
ing children constitute a risk group for adult criminal behavior. Bullies have experi-
enced too much freedom and not enough love and care at home, where there is also
typically parental conflict. Clear limits have not been set for them, and aggressive be-
havior has been permitted. Bullying is often a part of a more genera! antisocial or indif-
ferent pattern of behavior [Olweus, 1994]. Farrington's results [1986] show that the
best predictors of convictions and self-reported delinquency are convictions and self-
reported delinquency at an earlier age [see also Kupersmidt and Coie, 1990; Pulkkinen
and Pitkanen, 1993; Stattin and Magnusson, l991;Viemero, 1992].The continuation of
troublesome, aggressive, delinquent, deviant, and criminal behavior from childhood to
adulthood is striking.
Furthermore, the mass media have contributed to the increase in antisocial and vio-
lent behavior IBelson, 1978; Eron and Huesmann, 1986; Viemero, 1986]. The mass
media provide children and young people with information about the attitudes and val-
ues of the adult world. This leads children to question their understanding of the reali-
ties ofthe world. Il has been noted that some young prisoners have acquired ideas for
their crimes from films [Radecki, 1983]. However, it is difficult to compare how much
people watch violence in different countries because no congruent measures of this
exists. Gerbner [ 1972] created an index to measure the amount of violence on TV in the
United States. According to him, the violence index was 183 in 1978-1979. The vio-
lence index calculated in Finland, in the same way Gerbner did, in I week in 1983 was
136.5 [Viemero, 1986]. If an index of the number of TV sets, radios, and newspapers
per 1,000 inhabitants is calculated, Japan ranks first, Finland second, and the United
States third in the world. In the number of TV sets per capita, the United States ranks
first, Japan fourth, and Finland sixth in the world IWiio, 1994].
The aim ofthe present article is to present factors, examined in an 18-year follow-up
study, that are antecedents to physical aggression [Patterson et al., 19841 at the age of
15/17 years and criminality in young adulthood (25-27 years). The following groups of
factors were chosen as independent variables in the analyses: parental aggression,
punitivity, and attitudes of rejection toward the child, the subjects'previous aggression
and the viewing of TV violence during childhood as well as aggressive, indifferent, and
delinquent behavior in adolescence.
 Predictors of Criminal Behavior 89

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Subjects
The subjects belonged to an original sample of 220 pupils (105 boys and 115 girls) of
two age groups, 7 and 9, from two schools in Turku, Finland. One of the schools was
situated in the center of the city and the other in a suburb. Both schools were public
schools, as are almost all schools in Finland, and there were no differences of social
class between the schools. Altogether 187 (99 females and 88 males) subjects partici-
pated in the analyses in adolescence, at the age of 15/17 years. Eighty-eight of the
subjects (with complete data for the present purposes) had a criminal record at the age
of 25/27 years. Only the subjects with a criminal record were used for the analyses in
young adulthood.

Procedure
The subjects were interviewed a total of eight times over the past 18 years. The sub-
jects were interviewed for the first time when they were 7/9 years old in 1978. The most
recently they were interviewed was in 1995 when they were 25/27 years old. The first
three interviews (1978-1980) of the subjects formed Finland's part in a cross-cultural
study of television and aggression [Huesmann and Eron, 1986]. The last interview was
part of a follow-up of the same study. The first five interviews (1978-1981, 1983) were
conducted in schools during class hours. In adolescence (1985) the interviews were
conducted by mailing the questionnaires to the subjects. Data about criminal convic-
tions were obtained from police files.

Measures
Dependent variables. Physical aggression at the age of 15/17 years was measured
by a procedure used by Patterson et al. [1984] in their study. Subjects were presented
with statements such as "I often get into fights" and "I attack people." Data concerning
criminal behavior and traffic violations at the age of 25/27 years were collected from
police files. Criminal behavior was coded based on the number of arrests. Minor crimes
were excluded and attention was focused on more serious crimes, such as property
offences and physically violent behavior. Traffic violations included the number of days
the driver's license had been suspended and the number of drunken driving charges.
Parking violations were excluded.
Independent variables. The main method used to measure aggressive behavior
during the study was peer-nomination. Each subject named all the pupils in his/her
class who had displayed 10 specific behaviors during the school year. Items like "Who
starts a fight over nothing?" were used. The reliability and validity of this measure have
been demonstrated in many contexts [e.g., Huesmann and Eron, 1986; Viemero, 1986].
Aggression was also measured on the basis of teacher ratings at the age of 11/13 years.
Teachers were asked to rate the subjects' verbal and physical aggression on a scale of
0-4, In order to make the ratings as uniform as possible, teachers were introduced to
typical examples of both physical and verbal aggression. For example, a pupil who
fights with, hits, or kicks his peers was to receive 4 points in the rating of physical
aggression [Viemero, l986].The third method used to measure aggression was the self-
rating method. Self-rated aggression was measured when the subjects were 13/15 and
15/17 years old by means of questions dealing with how often the subject has been the
 90 Viemerd

perpetrator of certain physically aggressive acts, for example, "I get angry and break
things" and "I get mad at people" [Huesmann and Eron, 1986].
The viewing of TV and video violence was measured several times during the study.
It was expressed as the sum of the violence ratings of the subjects' favorite programs
[Viemero, 1986].
Parental variables used in the analyses included aggression, punitivity, and rejection.
The method used to measure aggression was the same as was used to measure the
subjects' self-rated aggression. Punitivity refers to how and how often the parent pun-
ishes the child. A typical question was, "Have you beaten your child until he/she started
to cry?" Rejection refers to attitudes of rejection toward the child, i.e., whether the
parent is satisfied with the child and the child's behavior. The validity and reliability of
the parental measures used in the cross-national study by Huesmann and Eron [1986]
have been demonstrated by these authors.
The variables measured in adolescence were various forms of delinquent behavior.
Physical aggression at 13/15 years was measured according to the method Pitkanen-
Pulkkinen 119811 used in her study in Finland. She has shown that one appropriate way
to measure adolescent boys' violent behavior is to ask them, "How often have you been
in a fight or hit someone?" Self-rated criminality was measured by asking the subjects
to estimate how often they had been caught (by parents, teachers, police, or a disco
doorman) committing an illegal act. Typical acts on the list were crimes against prop-
erty, violent behavior, disturbing behavior, and traffic violations. Indifference about
general order was measured by items like "I have broken street lights or other property"
and "I have driven without a license." The reliability and validity of these measures
have been reported by Viemero [1986]. Aggressive fantasizing was measured by ask-
ing, "Do you ever imagine yourself hitting or hurting a person you don't like?"
[Huesmann and Eron, 1986].

RESULTS
Aggressive and Delinquent Behavior in Childhood and in Adolescence
The independent variable groups in the regression analyses were chosen on the basis
of positive concurrent correlations with aggression measures in childhood and in ado-
lescence. Peer-nominated aggression, averaged over the first three measures, correlated
positively with parents' rejection (male, r = .29,/* < .05 and female, r = .42,P < .01) and
punitivity (male, r = .41, P < .01 and female, r = .21, ns), but not with their aggression.
It also correlated significantly with averaged teacher-rated physical and verbal aggres-
sion (male, r = .56, P < .01 and female, r = .79, P < .01).
The correlation between average peer-nominated aggression and average TV vio-
lence viewing over 3 years was significant only for the boys {r = .22, P < .05). For most
of the previous aggression measures, there was a high correlation with the variables
measured in adolescence, especially for the male subjects (Table I).

Factors Predicting Physicai Aggression in Adoiescence

A total of 12.4% of the male subjects in the original sample of 105 boys had criminal
records at the age of 15/17 years. Of the 115 female subjects in the original sample,
5.2% had crimes registered against them at that age. The mean percentage of the male
subjects caught for violent behavior at the age of 15/17 years was 12.9%, according to
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92 Viemerd

the subjects' own ratings. Ofthe adolescent female subjects, 3% had been caught for
violent behavior.
Offences known to the police and self-rated criminality were intercorrelated (male, r
= .64. n= \4, P < .05 and female, r = .75, n = 5, ns). Because of the low number of
subjects who had offences known to police at this age, the correlation did not reach the
level of significance for the female adolescents.
In order to determine the causes of physical aggression in adolescence, three differ-
ent groups of independent variables were used independently of each other in the re-
gression analyses. In addition to previous aggression andTV violence viewing measures,
parental aggression, punitivity, and attitudes of rejection were also included in the analy-
ses as independent variables. Physical aggression at the age of 15/17 years was pre-
dicted by former aggression. All the combinations of former aggression measures (peer
nominations, self-ratings, and teacher ratings) had about the same value in predicting
physical aggression at the age of 15/17 years. Previous TV violence viewing habits
were a predictor of physical aggression only for the female subjects (Fig. 1). Parental
variables did not predict physical aggression in adolescents.

Traffic Violations and Criminal Behavior in Young Adulthood

The total subjects who had committed crimes or traffic violations numbered 105 of
the original sample of 220 subjects (63 of 105 males and 42 of 115 females). This
means that 60% ofthe male and 36.5% ofthe female subjects ofthe original sample of
the 7/9-year-old subjects from 1978 had a police record at the age of 25/27 years. If
traffic violations are excluded from the figures, the percentages were 28.6% (n = 30)
for the male and 21,7% (n = 25) for the female subjects. Indeed, 13.33% ofthe males
and 2.61% ofthe females had been arrested for crimes involving physical violence.
Of the original sample of subjects, those who did not participate in interviews in
adolescence (15/17 years) were excluded from the statistical analyses conducted for
subjects in young adulthood. In the following analyses, 88 (54 males and 34 females) of
the subjects had a criminal record and/or had committed traffic violations in young
adulthood. The number of male subjects with crimes registered against them was 28
and the corresponding number of female subjects 20.
There were statistically significant differences between subjects with (n = 88) and
without (n = 100) a criminal record in all aggression measures conducted in childhood.
For instance, peer-nominated aggression at the ages of 7/9 (t = 2.67, P < .01), 8/10 (t =
2.70,/*<.02), 9/11 ( t = 3.36, P < . 0 0 1 ) , and 13/15 years (t = 2.38,/*< .05) differed
significantly between the two groups. There were statistically significant differences
between the subjects with and without a criminal record also inTV viewing variables in
childhood and in adolescence. The viewing of violence on television at the ages of 7/9
( F = l l . 0 ! . / ' < . 0 0 1 ) , 8 / l O ( F - 9 . 9 6 , P < . 0 0 2 ) , and9/ll years (F = 4.19,/^ < .05)
differed significantly between the groups. There were significant differences between
the groups also in TV viewing frequency at 13/15 (F = 6.76, P < .05) and in video
violence viewing at 13/15 (F = 12.24. P < .001).

Factors Predicting Traffic Violations and Criminal Behavior in

Young Adulthood
In order to discover the causes of criminal and indifferent behavior in young adult-
hood, four different groups of independent variables were used independently of each
 Predictors of Criminal Behavior 93

Previous aggression measures

P**r-nomlnat*d aagr**lon at 7/9
P**(-nofnlnal*d oggrasslon at 0/10
P**r-nominat*d ao9r**lon at V/11
P**(-nofTilnat*ci ciggraaalon at 13/16

R ' = . 2 4 , F = 3.77, p*.009

Previous aggression measures

P*f-nomlnat*d ag0r*Blon ot 7/9
P**r-nominated ag0r***la at A/IO
P**<-nominated aggression at 9/1 I
P**r-nominated aggr**slon at 13/IS
Slf-rat*d aggression at 7/9
S*lf-fated aggression at 8/IO
Seir-fated aggression at 9/1 I

R = .24, F = 2.08. p =.06

Previous TV-violence viewing

TV-vloler\ce vlewflng at 7/9
TV-violence viewing at 8/1O
TV-violence Viewing at 9/11
TV-violence viewing at 13/lS
TV-vlewIng frequency at 19/IB
Vtdeo-vlolence viewing at 13/IS

R'=.:

Fig. 1. Variables predicting physical aggression in adolescence (males n = 88. females n = 99).

Other in the regression analyses. In addition to previous aggression measures, previous

TV violence viewing measures and aggression/criminality measures in adolescence,
parental aggression, punitivity, and attitudes of rejection were also included in the analy-
ses as independent variables.
Regression analyses were done with total criminality score {~ number of traffic vio-
lations + number of drunken driving charges + number of arrests) and number of ar-
rests as dependent variables.
The total criminality score for the young mate adults (n = 54) was predicted by their
previous TV violence viewing habits (R- = .28, F = 2.37, P = .04) and variables mea-
sured in adolescence (R' = .22, F = 2.04, P = .07). The total criminality score for the
young female adults (n = 34) was predicted not only by former TV violence viewing
(R- = .43, F = 10.04, P = .000) and measures in adolescence (R- = .40, F = 6.46, P =
.000), but also by previous peer nominations and teacher ratings of aggression (R^ =
.32, F = 4.66, P = .000).
94 Viemero

The number of arrests of male subjects (n = 28) could be predicted by two different
groups of variables: The previous peer nominations and teacher ratings of aggression
and the previous TV violence viewing measures. The number of arrests of female sub-
jects (n = 20) could be predicted, in addition to those for the male subjects., also by
aggression, rejection, and punitivity by both parents and by aggression and delinquency
measured in adolescence (Fig. 2).

DISCUSSION
In the present study it was found, in line with Olweus' [ 1994] studies, that aggressive
behavior is part of a more general pattem of antisocial and indifferent behavior. Fea-
tures of aggressive lifestyle were shown to be very stable. It was also evident that trouble-
some, delinquent, deviant, and criminal behavior continued from childhood to adulthood
[cf. Farrington, 1986; Stattin and Magnusson, 19911. There were significant, positive
correlations between aggression, measured on several occasions since the subjects were
7/9 years old, and aggression and delinquency variables in adolescence. These correla-
tions were especially prominent for the male subjects. Self-rated aggression for the
female adolescents and aggressive fantasizing for the male subjects were exceptions. It
seems that peers and teachers have difficulties in rating girls' aggression compared
with rating that of boys. Girls rate themselves as aggressive even if it is not visible in
their overt behavior. For the male subjects in tum, aggressive fantasizing did not corre-
late with the other aggression measures. It Is understandable that boys who are rated as
aggressive by their peers do not admit that they have fantasiesaggressive or other-
wise [Viemero, 1992].
The causes of adolescent violent behavior can be traced back to childhood. Physical
aggression at the age of 15/17 years was predicted by former peer-nominated vs. peer-
nominated and teacher-rated aggression. However, the predictive value of the aggres-
sion measures was statistically significant only for the male subjects even if there was a
similar tendency for the female subjects as well. This result may reflect the previously
noted fact that peers and teachers have difficulties in rating the aggression of girls.
Former TV violence viewing measures predicted physical aggression in adolescence
only for the female subjects. It seems obvious that girls, who in general were less ag-
gressive than the boys, were more sensitive to the negative effects of violence seen on
television [cf. Viemero, 1986].
There was quite a high number of subjects of the original sample of 7/9 year-old
subjects (105 boys and 115 girls) who in young adulthood had crimes and traffic viola-
tions on their record. However, only about 13% of the males and 3% of the females had
been arrested for physical violence. When the subjects with and without a criminal
record were compared regarding their former aggression andTV violence viewing hab-
its the groups differed significantly already in childhood. The subjects who had a crimi-
nal record in adulthood were more aggressive in childhood and watched more violence
on TV in childhood than the subjects without a criminal record.
There were four different groups of variables which were of importance in predicting
the criminality of young adult subjects. The first of these is the combination of parental
aggression, punitivity, and attitudes of rejection measured when the subjects were 7/9
years old. In accordance with McCord [1986], parental behavior was a predictor of the
number of arrests. This holds specifically for the female subjects. Girls are possibly
 Predictors of Criminal Behavior 95

Parental variables

Falh*t'a
Mothwr'a rwjAction
Fc)trt*i'a punitivity
Mottiwr'a punltlvltv

Previous aggression measures

P**(-nomlr>cil*cl oogrvaaJon at 7/9
P**t-n omi naiad aygrasaJon at S/IO
P**<-nornlnal*d c>ao>*j3n at 9/1 I
P**f-nomlnat*d aggr*ulon at 13/16
Tcich*>-tatwcl v*rb>al caag(*saJon at 1 I / I S
Toch*r-rat*d phyalcal agg>*salon at 1 1/13

Number of arrests
R =41,F=6.83,p=.000
R''-.28, F-2.92. P=.O16 = 20

= 28
Previous TV-vloience viewing
TV-vlol*nc* vlAWIng at 7/9
TV-vlolnc vlwwlngot t/IO
TV-vlolnc viewing at 9/1 I
TV-vtol*nc* vlawing al I 3/IS

R -.30. F=5.69. p=.000

R'^-.IB. F=2.43. P=.O46

Measures in adoiescence
SM-rat*d aggrasalon
Aag(*lv fantasizing
PhyBlcal ogoiABalon at 13/16
Phyalccd o(ig>*kaJon at 16/17
S*lf-rat*d cdmlnallty
lndltt*r*nc* about gan*ral ordar

R''=.27, F=3.58. P=.OO2

RV20.F=1.84.P=099

Fig. 2. Variables predicting the number of arrests in young adulthood (males n = 28, females n = 20).

more sensitive to their parents' behavior than boys. Another variable was the subjects'
previous aggression. Previous aggression predicted the number of arrests for both gen-
ders [cf. Farrington. 1986; Olweus, 1980, 1986], and for the female subjects also the
total criminality score. The third group of variables comprised aggression and delin-
quency in adolescence. In accordance with other studies [i.e., Kupersmidt and Coie,
96 Viemero

1990; Stattin and Magnusson, 1991], aggression and delinquency in adolescence pre-
dicted the number of arrests and the total criminality score, but in the present study they
were only significant in the case of the female subjects. Maybe girls exhibit more stable
forms of behavior in adolescence than boys. The fourth variable predicting criminality
in young adulthood was the subjects' previous viewing of TV violence [cf. Belson,
1978; Eron and Huesman, 1986]. Previous viewing of TV violence was a predictor of
the number of arrests and total criminality score for both genders, even if it was more
strongly so for the female than for male subjects.
It could be concluded that the predictive value of aggression, violence viewing, and
parental behavior in childhood as well as delinquency in adolescence were conducive
to criminal behavior in young adulthood. Further, in accordance with other studies
[Farrington, 1986; Olweus, 1986; Stattin and Magnusson, 1991], it can be concluded
that the best predictor of aggressive and criminal behavior in adulthood is aggressive
behavior in childhood and in adolescence. TV violence viewing habits were anteced-
ents to criminality in young adulthood. Even if TV violence viewing could not, inde-
pendently of other factors in an individual's life, be said to be a cause of criminality in
adulthood, it surely is a symptom that should be taken seriously. It may be a symptom
of a lack of satisfying communication between parents and children. This lack of com-
munication is possibly compensated by the human relationships represented on televi-
sion. This, in tum, offers opportunities for identification with aggressive and violent
heroes on TV. The process is one link in the chain, leading to an aggressive and criminal
lifestyle in adulthood.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This study was financially supported by The Foundation of Abo Akademi Univer-
sity, The Academy of Finland, The Council for Social Sciences, and as a part of an
international study by the U.S. National Institute of Mental Health.

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