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AlainPecker

EzioFaccioli

AybarsGurpinar

ChristopheMartin

PhilippeRenault

An Overview

of the SIGMA

Research

Project

A European Approach to Seismic Hazard

Analysis

Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake

Engineering

Volume 42

Series Editor

Atilla Ansal, School of Engineering, zyein University, Istanbul, Turkey

Julian Bommer, Imperial College London, U.K.

Jonathan D. Bray, University of California, Berkeley, U.S.A.

Kyriazis Pitilakis, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece

Susumu Yasuda, Tokyo Denki University, Japan

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/6011

AlainPeckerEzioFaccioli

AybarsGurpinarChristopheMartin

PhilippeRenault

Research Project

A European Approach to Seismic Hazard

Analysis

AlainPecker EzioFaccioli

AP Consultant Studio Geotecnico Italiano

Sceaux, France Milan, Italy

AybarsGurpinar ChristopheMartin

Izmir, Turkey Geoter-Fugro

Auriol, France

PhilippeRenault

Swissnuclear

Olten, Switzerland

Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering

ISBN 978-3-319-58153-8ISBN 978-3-319-58154-5(eBook)

DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of

the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,

broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information

storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology

now known or hereafter developed.

The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication

does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant

protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.

The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book

are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the

editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors

or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims

in published maps and institutional affiliations.

The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG

The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Le doute est un tat mental dsagrable mais

la certitude est ridicule.

Doubt is an unpleasant mental state but

certainty is ridiculous.

Voltaire (Franois-Marie Arouet,

16941778)

v

Contents

1 Introduction................................................................................................ 1

1.1 Overview oftheProject Organisation................................................. 1

1.2 Object oftheDocument...................................................................... 4

References.................................................................................................... 4

2 General Concepts andPSHA Background.............................................. 5

2.1 Development ofaSeismotectonic Framework forPSHA.................. 5

2.2 Development ofSeismic Sources andLogic Trees forSource

Definition............................................................................................ 6

2.3 Site Specific vs. Regional Study......................................................... 6

2.4 PSHA AFramework forSeismic Source & Ground

Motion & Site Response Characterization.......................................... 8

2.5 Logic Tree Approach andTreatment ofUncertainties........................ 12

2.5.1 Epistemic Uncertainty vs. Aleatory Variability....................... 12

2.5.2 Logic Tree Methodology........................................................ 13

2.5.3 Site Response.......................................................................... 14

2.5.4 Use ofExperts......................................................................... 16

2.6 Interface Issues Between Work Packages........................................... 18

2.7 Common Required Outputs forSeismic Hazard Results.................... 18

2.7.1 Basic Definitions andRequirements....................................... 19

2.7.2 Common Hazard Results........................................................ 20

2.7.3 Additional Parameters............................................................. 22

References.................................................................................................... 23

3 Seismic Source Characterization.............................................................. 25

3.1 Pre-requisites toDevelop theSSC Models......................................... 26

3.2 Database, Earthquake Catalogue, Magnitude Conversions,

Uncertainties onMetadata.................................................................. 28

vii

viii Contents

3.3.1 Diffuse Seismicity VersusIdentified

Seismogenic Structures........................................................... 32

3.3.2 Seismic Source Characterization Framework......................... 33

3.3.3 Area Source, Fault Sources, Gridded Seismicity.................... 34

3.3.4 Lessons Learned Related toSeismic Source Models............. 40

3.4 Occurrence Processes.......................................................................... 41

3.4.1 Poisson Model......................................................................... 41

3.4.2 Characteristic Model............................................................... 42

3.4.3 Time-Dependent Seismicity Models....................................... 42

3.5 Maximum Magnitude andRecurrence Parameters............................. 42

3.5.1 Maximum Magnitude............................................................. 42

3.5.2 Recurrence Parameters............................................................ 44

3.5.3 Lessons Learned..................................................................... 45

3.6 Logic-Tree Implications...................................................................... 47

3.6.1 Logic Tree Approaches........................................................... 47

3.6.2 Efficient Tools fortheLogic Tree Conception

andWeights Assignment......................................................... 49

3.6.3 Verification andQuality Assurance (QA)............................... 53

References.................................................................................................... 53

4 Rock Motion Characterization................................................................. 57

4.1 Empirical Models andPoint Source Stochastic Models..................... 57

4.1.1 Empirical Ground Motion Attenuation Models...................... 57

4.1.2 Point Source Stochastic Models............................................. 62

4.2 Model Selection andCriteria.............................................................. 63

4.2.1 Modelling Criteria................................................................... 63

4.2.2 Tectonic Consistency.............................................................. 64

4.2.3 Site-Conditions Consistency................................................... 66

4.3 Corrections or Modifications ofPublished Models............................ 66

4.3.1 -VS30 (Simulation-Based) Correction..................................... 67

4.3.2 Data-Based Predictions forHard Rock................................... 71

4.4 Standard Deviation ofModel Predictions; Truncation....................... 73

4.4.1 Sigma Truncation.................................................................... 76

4.5 Approaches fortheVertical Ground Motion Component................... 78

4.6 Logic Tree Implications...................................................................... 79

4.7 Lessons Learned fromtheSIGMA Project......................................... 80

References.................................................................................................... 81

5 Site Response Characterization................................................................ 85

5.1 Soil Characterization........................................................................... 85

5.1.1 Determination oftheProfile Natural Frequency f0................. 86

5.1.2 Determination oftheShear-Wave Velocity Profile

andSite Class.......................................................................... 86

5.1.3 Seismic Instrumentation......................................................... 91

5.1.4 Characterization ofNonlinear Soil Properties........................ 92

Contents ix

5.2.1 Direct Evaluation fromGround Motion Prediction

Equations (FpG)...................................................................... 96

5.2.2 Generic Site Specific Approaches (HyG)............................... 97

5.3 Completely Site Specific Approaches (HyS)...................................... 101

5.3.1 Linear Numerical Analyses..................................................... 103

5.3.2 Equivalent Linear Numerical Analyses................................... 104

5.3.3 Nonlinear Numerical Analyses............................................... 107

5.4 Treatment ofUncertainties.................................................................. 111

5.4.1 Fully Probabilistic Generic Site Approach (FpG)................... 111

5.4.2 Hybrid Site Specific Approach (HyS)..................................... 112

5.5 Lessons Learned fromtheSIGMA Project......................................... 114

5.6 Additional Topics inGround Surface Hazard Assessment................. 115

5.6.1 Vertical Ground Motion.......................................................... 115

5.6.2 Maximum Ground Motion: Truncation.................................. 116

References.................................................................................................... 117

6 Seismic Hazard Computation................................................................... 119

6.1 Basic Requirements............................................................................ 119

6.2 Interfaces andBoundary Conditions................................................... 120

6.3 Software Packages.............................................................................. 120

6.3.1 PSHA Software....................................................................... 120

6.3.2 Site Response Analysis Codes................................................ 122

6.4 Sensitivity Analysis............................................................................. 123

6.5 Hazard Disaggregation........................................................................ 126

6.6 Additional Engineering Output Parameters........................................ 127

6.7 Selection ofTime Histories................................................................. 128

6.7.1 Selection Based onUHS......................................................... 128

6.7.2 Selection Based onConditional Spectra................................. 129

References.................................................................................................... 130

7 Interfaces Between Subprojects................................................................ 133

7.1 SSC andGMC Interfaces.................................................................... 133

7.2 GMC andSRC Interfaces................................................................... 135

7.3 Single-Station Sigma.......................................................................... 137

7.4 V/H Models forRock andSoil........................................................... 138

References.................................................................................................... 139

8 Probabilistic Seismic Testing andUpdating ofSeismic

Hazard Results........................................................................................... 141

8.1 PSHA Testing Using Acceleration andMacroseismic

Intensity Data...................................................................................... 142

8.2 Bayesian Update ofPSHA.................................................................. 145

References.................................................................................................... 145

x Contents

9.1 Seismic Source Characterization........................................................ 147

9.2 Ground Motion Characterization........................................................ 148

9.3 Site Response Characterization........................................................... 148

9.4 Hazard Calculation.............................................................................. 149

9.5 Risk Assessment................................................................................. 149

Annexes............................................................................................................. 151

Bibliography..................................................................................................... 165

Index.................................................................................................................. 169

Acronyms

BPT Brownian passage time

CAV Cumulative absolute velocity

COV Coefficient of variation

EMS European Macroseismic Scale

EPRI Electric Power Research Institute

FFS Finite fault simulation

IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

IDP Intensity data point

GIS Geographic information system

GMC Ground motion characterization

GMPE Ground motion prediction equation

GR parameters Gutenberg-Richter parameters

NRC Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USA)

PDF Probability density function

PGA Peak ground acceleration

PGV Peak ground velocity

PSA Probabilistic safety assessment

PSHA Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

QA Quality assurance

RP Return period

RVT Random vibration theory

SCR Stable continental region

SHA Seismic hazard assessment

SSHAC Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee

SOF Style of faulting

SRC Site response characterization

SSC Seismic source characterization

US-DOE Department of Energy (USA)

xi

Chapter 1

Introduction

In recent years, attempts have been made to identify and quantify uncertainties in

seismic hazard estimations for regions with moderate seismicity. These studies have

highlighted the lack of representative data, thereby resulting in predictions of seis-

mic ground motion with large uncertainties. These uncertainties, for which no esti-

mation standards exist, create major difficulties and can lead to different

interpretations and divergent opinions among experts. There is a wide consensus

among the scientific and technical community for the need to improve knowledge

so as to better characterize and, ideally, reduce the uncertainties entering in the cal-

culation of seismic ground motion hazard.

To address this situation, in January 2011, an industrial consortium composed of

the French electric power utility (EDF), the French company AREVA, the Italian

electricity company ENEL (Ente Nazionale per lEnergia eLettrica), and the French

Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) launched an international research and devel-

opment program. This program, named SIGMA (SeIsmic Ground Motion

Assessment, http://www.projet-sigma.com), lasted for 5 years and involved a large

number of international institutions.

used in the future to produce stable and robust hazard estimates. Better characteriza-

tion and more stable uncertainty estimation could provide input for the updating of

regulations. It was expected that total uncertainties will be reduced by significantly

lowering epistemic uncertainty, and subsequently, this research programme would

significantly contribute to the following efforts:

Validate, homogenize and stabilize input databases for seismic hazard

calculations;

A. Pecker et al., An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Geotechnical,

Geological and Earthquake Engineering 42, DOI10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5_1

2 1Introduction

Reduce total uncertainties;

Improve confidence in seismic hazard assessments; and

Foster technical and scientific exchanges among French and other European

organizations.

The programme was organised around five Work Packages, as follows:

WP 1: Improve knowledge of seismic sources

The main goal was to produce a French catalogue of earthquakes that covers both

the historical and instrumental periods.

WP 2: Improve seismic ground motion prediction

The goal was to develop methodologies and analysis tools for predicting seismic

ground motion that are adapted to the French context and contiguous countries,

and which adopt a realistic representation of aleatory and epistemic

uncertainties.

WP 3: Improve local site conditions representation (Site response)

The goal was to develop methods to determine which sites are potentially subject

to local site effects, and to develop appropriate tools to be used in seismic hazard

calculations.

WP 4: Improve seismic hazard models

The intention was to better identify and quantify uncertainties with the goal to

reduce them, particularly the epistemic uncertainties. It was intended to validate

existing methods, and to explore new directions, for testing probabilistic hazard

curves against observations.

WP 5: Improve on characterization and utilization of seismic ground motion

The studies in this work package were aimed to ensure that results of the overall

project fulfil the engineers and designers needs for the design and operation of

various types of facilities. Its goal was to produce methods and tools for the

development of the needed engineering parameter(s) for the earthquake ground

motion.

Figure 1.1 summarizes the general framework of study in the five main Work

Packages.

To help achieve these ambitious objectives, the project management was orga-

nized around four entities (Fig.1.2):

A Steering Committee (COSS) composed of the industrial financial sponsors,

which is charged with identifying strategic orientations and approval of the tech-

nical and scientific choices;

A management committee (COPIL) composed of the Work Package leaders and

the Project Manager;

A international Scientific Committee (CS) to guarantee high quality scientific

research and development; and

An external committee (SHARP) composed of internationally recognized experts

to give the COSS a highly credible scientific assessment.

1.1 Overview oftheProject Organisation 3

Fig. 1.1 Illustration of relationship between the five technical Work Packages

and professional institutions contributed to the project and their contributions

resulted in the publication of 75 technical reports reviewed by the Scientific

Committee, 40 publications in peer-reviewed journals and numerous communica-

tions in international conferences, workshops and symposia.

A list of all institutions and members of the different committees can be found in

Annex 1. The most important technical reports (deliverables) mentioned in the pres-

ent document are listed in Annex 2 with the published papers.

The total cost of the programme amounted to 7.5 million Euro over a period of

5years.

4 1Introduction

The main objective of this document is to present, based on the outcomes of the

SIGMA project, lessons learned from conducting a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Assessment (PSHA), including site response, for selected areas in France and Italy.

After a general overview of the elements of a PSHA, the document is organized in

chapters closely related to the work packages: Chap. 3 presents the seismic source

characterization (WP1), Chap. 4 the rock motion characterization (WP2), Chap. 5

the site effects (WP3) and Chap. 6 the seismic hazard computations (WP4). Two

important chapters have been added related to interface issues to be faced in PSHA

between the work packages (Chap. 7) and to the testing of PSHA results (Chap. 8).

The final chapter attempts to summarize the lessons learned and to identify the areas

where additional research is needed.

It must be stressed that not all the topics related to PSHA were covered in the

SIGMA project; nevertheless, they will be mentioned in the document for the sake

of completeness.

It is assumed that the reader is familiar with PSHA and, therefore, the basic con-

cepts are not covered in detail in the present document. The interested reader is

referred to general documents for further details, e.g.: IAEA Safety Standard SSG-9

(2010), USNRC Regulatory Guide RG 1.208 (2007) and the EERI monograph by

McGuire (2004).

References

International Atomic Energy Agency (2010) Seismic hazards in site evaluation for nuclear instal-

lations, Specific Safety Guide SSG-9. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna

McGuire RK (2004) Seismic hazard and risk analysis, EERI monograph. Earthquake Engineering

Research Institute, Oakland

NRC (2007) Regulatory guide 1.208, a performance-based approach to define the site-specific

earthquake ground motion. U.S.Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory

Research, Washington, DC

Chapter 2

General Concepts andPSHA Background

The first step in building the PSHA model is the collection of geological, geophysi-

cal, geotechnical and seismological data from published and unpublished docu-

ments, theses, and field investigations. These data are integrated to develop a

coherent interpretation of a seismotectonic framework for the study region. Its size

can vary depending on the purpose. The international practice for a site-specific

study is to distinguish between the investigations at a regional, near regional and site

vicinity level (e.g. 300 km, 25km and 5km radius in IAEA SSG-9, IAEA (2010)).

In order to include all features and areas with significant potential contribution to

the hazard, it may also be necessary to include information in a radius up to 500km

(e.g. for subduction zones). This framework provides the guiding philosophy for the

identification of seismic sources. Furthermore, the framework should address the

important issues that each expert expects to influence the identification and charac-

terisation of seismic sources in the region. The main topics to be addressed in the

seismotectonic framework include:

Use of pre-existing geological structures to provide a basis for defining the pres-

ent and future seismicity.

Tectonic models that are applicable to contemporary processes, the observed

seismicity, and are compatible with seismic sources.

Spatial distribution of the seismicity in three dimensions, and associated focal

mechanisms and their relation to potential seismic sources.

Implications of contemporary stresses and strains (e.g. earthquake focal mecha-

nisms, geodetics, other kinematic constraints) for defining sources.

Use of historical and instrumental seismicity and seismic source delineation to

provide a basis for defining the locations of future earthquake activity.

The following categories of seismotectonic configurations can be distinguished:

Stable continental region (SCR);

A. Pecker et al., An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Geotechnical,

Geological and Earthquake Engineering 42, DOI10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5_2

6 2 General Concepts andPSHA Background

Subduction region.

In Europe two regimes are usually considered and discussed: Active shallow

crustal region (ASCR, southern part) and stable continental region (SCR, northern

part). Within the SIGMA project the study regions were the South-East of France

and Northern Italy. The former region and regime can be considered as being part of

the extended crust (SCR) and weighted accordingly, while the seismically active

zones of Northern Italy can be predominantly classified as ASCR (see Fig. 4.3). The

subduction regime should also be mentioned in this context, but is applicable only

for some special regions in Europe, as e.g. Southern Italy, Greece, Turkey and

Cyprus. Also, the Vrancea seismic zone in Romania can be treated better with a

subduction-related database, although its tectonics are not clear.

The definition of the appropriate seismotectonic model is very important and has

implications on many aspects of the PSHA.Especially the source parameters such

as the maximum magnitude are closely related with the seismotectonic environment

and depend mostly on tectonic metrics (strain rate, etc.). Models for the magnitude

scaling and associated uncertainties are also dependent on the defined environment

and, thus, have an impact on the hazard.

2.2 D

evelopment ofSeismic Sources andLogic Trees

forSource Definition

Using the seismotectonic framework as a basis, the expert team in charge of seismic

source characterization develops its interpretation for the study region (see Sect.

2.5.4). Alternative interpretations of seismic sources (e.g. large regional sources

with spatial smoothing of seismicity versus localised source zones) and alternative

source zone geometries are usually incorporated in the seismic source models as

weighted alternatives using the logic tree methodology. The logic tree framework

allows, especially for the seismic source characterization, to capture the epistemic

uncertainty lying within the various interpretations. The seismic source zone maps

and the supporting calculations of spatial density functions of seismicity, using ker-

nel density estimation, are a part of the seismic source characterization

assessment.

PSHA for critical infrastructures (such as dams, power supply structures, e.g.

nuclear power plants) is usually done on a site-specific basis and cannot directly be

compared to regional studies (such as national seismic hazard maps as used in

design codes). The goal of regional studies is to provide seismic hazard results at a

2.3Site Specific vs. Regional Study 7

regional or national scale based on a uniform approach. Such a result can of course

only be achieved if a common seismological rock layer is defined and simplified

models are defined in order to keep the computation effort manageable. Usually, the

site response cannot be accurately captured in a regional study and, due to the lack

of appropriate soil data, cannot be measured in an adequate and accurate way. The

seismic source characterization models for regional or site-specific studies can be

compared, as the underlying historical and measured seismic data should theoreti-

cally be the same. Nevertheless, seismic sources are not always defined through

seismicity data. In a site-specific study, the detail of investigation increases as we

approach the site, i.e. regional, near regional and site vicinity scales as defined in

IAEA SSG-9. Therefore, the sources can also be different from a regional study in

which only regional scale tectonic data are considered. On the other hand, the

ground motion characterization can also be quite different, since usually no site-

specific (or even regional) attenuation model exists. Therefore, the choices for ade-

quate models to be used for the PSHA can be different depending on the targets of

the study and the resources allocated to deriving adequate models. For example, in

modern PSHA published ground motion prediction models are adjusted to make

them more site-specific. Furthermore, recent site-specific studies make use of the

single-station sigma concept, which requires some local data and very good knowl-

edge of the investigated site. This is usually not the case for a large scale regional

study.

A site-specific study should not primarily rely on the scarce regional data but

should undertake the effort to collect adequate near regional, site vicinity and site

data at appropriate scales. Such data collection is required by nuclear safety stan-

dards (IAEA SSG-9). They are also cost effective and can scale over time depending

on the available resources. Without more knowledge and data, the penalty to pay for

a site-specific study is the acceptance of large uncertainties. Only site specific data

collection to constrain the model space can lead to a reduction of uncertainties.

There is usually a difference in the approach and possibilities for existing versus

new sites. At a new site the collection of data for the ground can usually be carried

out easily, while at an existing site there are constraints to respect. At a regional

level the available data for an existing site might be richer, as equipment has been

deployed and measurements have been carried out since then. At a new site in a

remote location there might be, in the extreme case, no data at all available, as no

infrastructure is nearby. Of course, it depends on the scope of the study and the

available resources, but the approach should be chosen according to specific safety

objectives and implemented in the context of a long-term perspective. Detailed and

extensive data collection can appear costly at the beginning, but will be valuable for

reduction of uncertainties and updates at a later stage.

8 2 General Concepts andPSHA Background

2.4 P

SHA AFramework forSeismic Source & Ground

Motion & Site Response Characterization

bilities using earth science hypotheses about the origin and characteristics of earth-

quakes in the considered study region. Scientific uncertainty about the causes and

effects of earthquakes in the study region and about the physical characteristics of

potentially active tectonic features lead to uncertainties in the inputs to the seismic

hazard calculations.

These uncertainties have to be propagated through the entire analysis. The result

is a suite of alternative results (in the form of hazard curves), where each hazard

curve is associated with one set of hypotheses and is assigned a weight that repre-

sents the relative merit or credibility of that set of hypotheses. These curves quantify

the seismic hazard for the study area and its uncertainty at the site, and can be used

as basis for decision making. In addition, this suite of hazard curves implicitly con-

tains information about the sensitivity of the hazard results to the various assump-

tions or parameters and about the contributions of these assumptions and parameters

to the total uncertainty in seismic hazard.

Commonly, the method used to calculate seismic hazard at a site is based on the

approach proposed by Cornell (1968, 1971). The approach is well established in the

literature (Der Kiureghian and Ang 1975; McGuire 1976, 1978) and many studies

are based on this mathematical framework. Calculation of the hazard requires speci-

fication of the following three main inputs:

1. Source geometry: the three dimensional geographic description of the seismic

sources. A seismic source is a portion of the earths crust associated with a fault

with a concentration of historic seismicity or with a volumetric defined region of

the earths crust having similar geological and geophysical characteristics that

may be capable of producing earthquakes, thus describing a zone with homoge-

neous seismic potential (without the ability to identify a precise fault in the

source). The geometry of a seismic source relative to the site and a relationship

between rupture size and magnitude, m, determine the conditional probability

distribution of the distance, r, from the earthquake rupture on the i-th source to

the site for a given magnitude: fR(i)|M(i) (r; m). When the hypocentral or epicentral

distance, rather than the rupture or Joyner-Boore distance, are used as the dis-

tance metric, the distance density distribution is no longer conditioned by mag-

nitude. Most modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) make use of

the rupture or Joyner-Boore distance and thus, the distribution of distance is

conditioned by magnitude, which becomes especially important for M > 5.5.

2. Recurrence: the mean annual cumulative rate of occurrence, i, and the magni-

tude density distribution, fM(i)(m), of earthquakes occurring in each source i

(which can be a specific fault or an area describing a region of diffuse seismic-

ity). This characterisation also includes the maximum magnitude that a source

2.4PSHA AFramework forSeismic Source & Ground Motion & Site Response 9

scale.

3. GMPEs (previously called attenuation relation, function or equation): an algo-

rithm that allows the estimation of ground-motion amplitude (e.g. peak ground

acceleration, spectral acceleration or any other seismic parameter) at the site as

a function of earthquake magnitude and distance. This characterisation consists

of the following three elements: (1) an algorithm for estimating the median

amplitude, (2) an algorithm for estimating the standard deviation, , that

describes the site-to-site and event-to-event scatter in the log[amplitude] of the

observations for the same magnitude and distance, and (3) an algorithm for the

maximum ground motion that can occur (i.e. an amplitude that has zero

probability of being exceeded, given that magnitude and distance). This last

aspect has not been considered in SIGMA.

These inputs are illustrated in Fig.2.1, parts (a) through (c). Figure2.1a shows

the geometry of a seismic source and the distance distribution for a given value of

magnitude. The cumulative probability distribution function (PDF) is assigned the

form of an exponential distribution, derived on a physical basis from the Gutenberg-

Richter relationship; it follows that the density distribution of magnitude, fM(i)(m),

for an area source is typically defined by the doubly truncated exponential distribu-

tion (Fig.2.1b). Seismicity for a source with the exponential magnitude distribution

is completely specified by the minimum magnitude, m0, maximum magnitude mmax,

and recurrence parameters a and b. Parameter a is a measure of seismic activity and

parameter b is a measure of relative frequency of large versus small events. The log

of the cumulative annual rate of events with magnitude m, log[i fM(i)(m)], is propor-

tional to bm for m mmax.

The ground motion is modelled by a ground motion function, as illustrated in

Fig.2.1c. The GMPE is usually expressed in the form log[A] = log[Amedian(M, R)] +

, where A is ground motion amplitude, M is magnitude, R is distance, and is a

normally distributed random variable with mean zero and standard deviation (M,

R), that represents variability in log[A] for a given magnitude and distance. The

maximum ground motion, log[Amax(M, R)], truncates the upper tail of the distribu-

tion of . For the purpose of the calculations, it is useful to express the attenuation

function as the probability GA|M,R (a*;m, r) = P[A a* |m, r]; namely the probability

that the ground-motion amplitude A is larger than a*, for a given m and r.

These three elements (i.e. source geometry, recurrence and GMPE) can be used

to calculate the annual probability of exceeding amplitude a* at the site, which is

expressed as the following summation using the total probability theorem:

i rm

in which Haz(a*), often written as (a*), is the mean frequency of exceedance of

ground motions, A, at a site and thus, the annual rate of earthquakes that produce

amplitudes A a* at the site. The summation is performed over all seismic sources

10 2 General Concepts andPSHA Background

Fig. 2.1 Basic inputs for the calculation of seismic hazard: (a) geometry of seismic source and

distribution of distance; (b) magnitude recurrence model; (c) GMPE

only earthquakes with magnitudes greater than a minimum magnitude m0, typically

taken as moment magnitude 4 or 5. Smaller earthquakes are assumed to produce no

damage to engineered structures, regardless of the ground motion amplitudes they

generate (see also Sect. 2.7.3.3).

Both i and f M ( i ) ( m ) are typically defined in terms of magnitudes greater than

m0, although lower magnitudes are normally considered in the determination of the

rate and magnitude distribution. The hazard equation is formulated using the

assumption that earthquakes (most particularly successive earthquakes) are inde-

pendent in size and location. In most seismic hazard applications, primary interest

is focused on computing probabilities for high (rare) ground motions for which the

probability of two or more exceedances of a* in 1 year is negligible. Thus, the quan-

2.4PSHA AFramework forSeismic Source & Ground Motion & Site Response 11

tity on the right side of the equation, which strictly speaking is the annual rate of

ground motions with amplitude A a*, is a very good approximation to the proba-

bility of exceeding amplitude a* in 1 year. It is commonly assumed that earthquake

occurrences in time are represented by a Poisson random process (Parzen 1962). In

fact, this assumption is not necessary, provided the probability of two or more

exceedances of a* in 1 year is negligible.

The calculation in the hazard equation is performed for multiple values of

exceedance amplitudes a*. The result is a hazard curve, which gives the annual

probability of exceedance as a function of a*. This calculation can be performed for

multiple measures of ground-motion amplitude (e.g. peak ground acceleration, peak

ground velocity, and response spectral acceleration at multiple frequencies). As

most GMPEs are formulated for peak ground and spectral accelerations, which are

also useful parameters for engineering purposes, these are the usual measures that

are used for current PSHAs.

It is useful to understand hazard equation using a deterministic perspective as the

starting point. Suppose we want to determine the ground-motion amplitude for an

earthquake of known magnitude occurring within a certain seismic source and at a

certain distance to the site. It is known that we cannot determine this amplitude

exactly, even for fixed magnitude and distance, because the earthquake source can-

not be fully described by a single parameter (magnitude) and wave propagation

through the earths crust cannot be fully described by a single parameter (distance).

To represent the resulting variability in ground motion, a probability distribution in

the form of GA|M,R (a*; m, r) = P[A a* |m, r] is used, i.e. the attenuation equation

is written as a complementary cumulative probability distribution. This is simply a

method for identifying which of the earthquakes lead to ground motions above the

target value a*.

Suppose now that all potentially damaging earthquakes in a certain seismic

source need to be considered. The integral over magnitude and distance in the equa-

tion is just a mathematical approach for sampling all possible earthquakes that may

occur in the given source, while weighting each earthquake by how frequently it

occurs, given the regional seismicity and geology (this weight is expressed by the

joint probability fM(i)(m) fR(i)|M(i)(r;m) dm dr). Multiplication of this integral by the

rate of occurrence i transforms this probability into units of occurrence per year, as

required for design decisions and for comparison with other natural and man-made

hazards. Note that the most notable distinction between the probabilistic and deter-

ministic character of a seismic hazard assessment is the introduction of the rate of

occurrence in the PSHA, rather than just considering and assuming one single sce-

nario. Finally, the summation samples the earthquakes from all of the seismic

sources in the region.

Another useful result is obtained if separate bins are used to accumulate the

rates from earthquakes in different magnitude ranges (e.g. using one bin for magni-

tudes 5.05.4, another bin for 5.55.9 and so forth), and then to divide these accu-

mulated weights by the total hazard. The result, which is called the magnitude

disaggregation of seismic hazard (McGuire 1995; Bazzurro and Cornell 1999)

indicates which magnitude ranges contribute significantly to seismic hazard. Similar

12 2 General Concepts andPSHA Background

disaggregation results can be obtained for distance and for the number of standard

deviations (). Furthermore, joint disaggregation results can be obtained, where

separate bins for different combinations of magnitude, distance, and are used (see

Sect. 6.5). The consideration and information about becomes especially relevant

when dealing with lower probability levels, as for example when performing seis-

mic PSA.Furthermore, in terms of hazard computation gives an indication about

the sensitivity of the result to a potential truncation of the aleatory variability

(sigma). This step of disaggregation is also very useful to identify the most contrib-

uting seismic scenarios in terms of magnitude-distance couples: this identification

is helpful for example to select the appropriate time series for databases of real

earthquakes consistent with the UHS (see Sect. 2.7.2.4).

Modern PSHA studies distinguish between two types of uncertainty, namely epis-

temic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Aleatory variability (sometimes called

randomness) is variability that results from natural physical processes. For example,

the size, depth, and time of the next earthquake on a fault and the resulting ground

motion can be considered to be aleatory. In current practice, these elements cannot

be predicted with sufficient confidence, even with collection of additional data.

Thus, the aleatory variability is irreducible without the inclusion of additional pre-

dictive parameters. However, an estimate of the sigma, not the sigma itself, is always

calculated. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty (often simply called uncer-

tainty) results from imperfect mathematical models, knowledge about faults and

physical processes that produce earthquakes and associate ground motions. In prin-

ciple, epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with advances in knowledge and the

collection of additional data.

Aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty are treated differently in PSHA

studies. Integration is carried out over aleatory variabilities to obtain a single hazard

curve, whereas epistemic uncertainties result in a suite of hazard curves based on

multiple assumptions, hypotheses, models or parameter values (see Sect. 2.5.2).

Results are presented as curves showing statistical summaries (e.g. mean, median

and fractiles or percentiles) of the exceedance probability for each ground motion

amplitude. The mean and median hazard curves convey the central tendency of the

calculated exceedance probabilities. The separation among fractile curves conveys

the net effect of epistemic uncertainty in the source characteristics and GMPE on

the calculated exceedance probability.

There are epistemic uncertainties associated with each of the three inputs to the

seismic hazard evaluation, as follows:

2.5Logic Tree Approach andTreatment ofUncertainties 13

Uncertainty about the location of causative faults or seismic areas, about the

seismogenic potential of faults or seismic areas and other geological features, as

a result of (1) uncertainty about the tectonic regime operating in the region and

(2) incomplete knowledge of these geological features. There is also uncertainty

about the geometry of these geological features (e.g. faults dip, borders of areal

sources, the exact location of a fault, the thickness of the seismogenic layer or

alternative interpretations of these geometries).

Uncertainty in recurrence is generally divided into uncertainty in maximum

magnitude, uncertainty in the seismic activity rate i, and uncertainty in param-

eter b.

Uncertainty in the GMPEs arises from uncertainty about the dynamic character-

istics of the earthquake source and wave propagation in the vicinity of the site.

This uncertainty is usually large in regions where few strong motion recordings

are available.

Further discussion on the philosophical and practical issues regarding the dis-

tinction between epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability in PSHA is provided

by NRC (1997).

Often expert judgment needs to be considered, as the available data are scarce,

especially for very rare events with large magnitude. Nevertheless, the importance

of data collection needs to be pointed out here, as expert judgment cannot replace

real measured data or at least should be guided by it. Conceptually, epistemic uncer-

tainty can be reduced through new data and knowledge which should better con-

strain the space of alternatives. This should already be motivation enough for each

sponsor of a study, e.g. the owners of a critical infrastructure. Furthermore, the

collection of local data, which is mandatory for nuclear facilities (see IAEA SSG-9

and USNRC RG 1.208), can help to better understand site-specific phenomena. In

the long term this will also enable making use of non-ergodic PSHA models (see

e.g. Walling (2009), Walling and Abrahamson (2012)) and, thus, allow for an even

more realistic and site-specific hazard assessment.

The epistemic uncertainty about the various inputs that affect seismic hazard is

organised and displayed by means of logic trees (Kulkarni etal. 1984; NRC 1997).

This technique is used for seismic source, ground motion and site response charac-

terisation. For example, each node of a logic tree represents a key seismic source

characteristic affecting seismic hazard. This characteristic may be a discrete state of

nature (e.g. are identified faults seismically active?) or a numerical parameter (e.g.

maximum magnitude on a specific seismic source). In the latter case, the continuous

range of values is approximated by a discrete set of values. Each branch emanating

from a node represents one alternative interpretation of the source characteristic

represented by that node. The collection of all branches emanating from a node is

14 2 General Concepts andPSHA Background

interpretations. The weight assigned to each branch indicates the expert or expert

teams assessment of the likelihood that this branch represents the true state of

nature, given existing knowledge and data. These weights are conditional on the

values of preceding (i.e. lower) branches in the logic tree.

Each end branch of the logic tree represents a complete description of the inputs

to the PSHA model presented in the section above, for all seismic sources affecting

the site. Associated with each branch tip, there is a weight, calculated as the product

of the weights of all branches followed, and a hazard curve, calculated using the

hazard equation. These hazard curves, together with the associated probabilities, are

used to calculate statistical summaries of the seismic hazard (e.g. mean, median,

and fractile hazard curves), and to estimate the sensitivity of the results to the vari-

ous inputs.

The material (soil) beneath a site affects the amplitude, frequency content, and dura-

tion of earthquake ground motion at the surface or in embedded layers. From a first-

order, engineering perspective, the three most important physical phenomena that

affect the amplitude of ground motions at the site are: (1) impedance contrasts

between the reference rock used for the rock calculations and the soil medium, (2)

resonance effects from energy that is trapped between the surface and the bedrock,

and (3) increased damping. In addition, two- and three-dimensional effects are

sometimes considered. At high amplitudes of motion, non-linearity may have a sig-

nificant effect on the elastic properties and damping of the soil.

The most common approach in practice is to perform the PSHA only for rock condi-

tions and then modify the rock amplitudes to introduce the effects of site response.

The key disadvantage of this approach is that it does not directly propagate the

effects of the aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty in the amplification

factors.

Conceptually, the most straightforward approach for incorporating aleatory vari-

ability and epistemic uncertainty in the site response into a PSHA is to start with a

site-specific (soil) ground motion equation, which may be obtained empirically or

via modelling. Then the hazard equation can be implemented directly for site-

specific amplitudes, using these site-specific GMPEs. Alternatively, the rock ground

motion model and site amplification model can be treated separately. The advan-

tages of the latter approach are that the required expertise and project workload are

decoupled and more combinations of rock motion and site response models are

allowed. The disadvantage is that some of the source information available to the

2.5Logic Tree Approach andTreatment ofUncertainties 15

rock ground motion model is decoupled from the site response and thus, not avail-

able to the site response model (e.g. source location and depth). Various determinis-

tic and probabilistic approaches are used today and SIGMA has investigated and

compared some of them (see Chap. 5).

In the past, Bazzurro (1998), Bazzurro etal. (1999) and McGuire etal. (2002)

have investigated the accuracy of a number of approximate approaches for the intro-

duction of site response effects in hazard results. NUREG CR-6728 (McGuire etal.

2002) compares several approximate approaches to the direct approach and recom-

mended one (denoted as approach 3) that explicitly includes epistemic and aleatory

uncertainty in site amplification, as well as the dependence of site amplification on

the rock input motion and on the dominant earthquake magnitude.

This approach integrates over all rock amplitudes, calculating the probability of

exceedance of specific soil amplitudes, using means and (log) standard deviations

that are functions of magnitude. The resulting equation is:

a

P AS > a = P AF > m,r ,a f A| M , R ( a;m;r ) f M , R ( m,r )dm dr da (2.2)

a

where P[AS a*] is the probability that soil amplitude AS exceeds a*, m is earth-

quake magnitude, r is distance, a is the rock ground motion amplitude, fM,R(m,r) is

the probability that an earthquake equals m and r, P[AF a*/a|m,r,a] is the proba-

bility that soil amplification factor AF exceeds a*/a given m, r and a, and fA|M,R(a;m,r)

is the probability distribution of a given m and r. The formulation recognizes AF as

being dependent on m, r, and a and integrates over all m and r to calculate P[AS

a*]. In effect it is doing the PSHA on a rock-modified-to-soil attenuation equation.

Bazzurro (1998) found this method to be an accurate way to calculate soil hazard.

If, as in McGuire etal. (2002), one recognizes that soil response is governed primar-

ily by the level of rock motion a and magnitude m of the event, the dependence on

distance can be neglected, and the previous equation simplified accordingly. A

detailed practical oriented discussion of the approaches implemented in SIGMA is

documented in Chap. 5.

To evaluate the soil equation (Eq.2.2), the median site amplification factor (SAF)

and the standard deviation of log(SAF) are required. The function fA(a) is obtained

as the negative derivative of the rock hazard curve, and the dominant earthquake

magnitude is calculated by disaggregating the seismic hazard.

Epistemic uncertainty in soil amplification is treated by including multiple soil

amplification models with weights. For calculation of soil hazard, all possible soil

models (P[AS a*|m,a] in the equation above) are combined with all possible rock

hazard models to calculate a family of soil hazard curves, each curve with its own

weight. Statistics on the soil hazard (e.g. mean and fractiles) are determined from

this family of soil hazard curves. There are several advantages to using the soil

equation over the other alternatives. First, the rock hazard curves can be calculated

using region-wide ground-motion equations, rather than developing a set of

equations for each site. Second, site-specific amplification models can be derived

16 2 General Concepts andPSHA Background

independently of the seismic hazard study, in the context of soil properties and input

motions only. This is how such models are generally applied. Third, this approach

allows explicit evaluation of the impact of epistemic uncertainty in soil amplifica-

tion, which may point to the need for additional data or modelling, rather than com-

bining epistemic uncertainties in soil response with epistemic uncertainties in

ground motion attenuation and dependence on earthquake magnitude. Finally, if

site-specific amplification models are updated at a later date, for example with addi-

tional site data, the soil hazard can be derived (through the equation above) without

repeating the entire seismic hazard calculation. Nevertheless, the implementation of

this approach should be carried out with great care with regard to consistency among

the rock and soil interface parameters. In particular, double counting of uncertain-

ties has been an issue in the past studies (e.g. including the aleatory variability of the

ground motion again in the determination of the soil amplification). Recently, the so

called single-station sigma concept has been introduced, which attempts to remove

the epistemic part of the site response from the evaluation of the aleatory part of the

rock ground motion (Rodriguez-Marek etal. 2013).

In order to gather, evaluate and use data in SHA, experts are necessary. Furthermore,

to cover the diversity of scientific interpretations, one approach is to involve a team

of qualified experts. As a SHA requires a multidisciplinary approach the study

makes use of various specialists with different backgrounds and from various fields

(such as geology, seismology, geophysics, geotechnical engineering, statistics, risk

analysis and computer sciences). The use of experts becomes especially relevant in

the context of the quantification of the uncertainties. In this chapter the criteria for

being considered an expert, a very brief example for the expert selection process,

and the general process to be followed in eliciting the evaluations of experts are

described. Experience has shown that, to be credible and useful, technical analyses

such as those performed for the seismic characterisation, ground motion attenuation

and site response must: (1) be based on sound technical information and interpreta-

tions, (2) follow a structured process that considers all available data, and (3) incor-

porate uncertainties (see SSHAC, NRC 1997). A key mechanism for quantifying

uncertainties is the use of formal expert elicitation. Nevertheless, the term elicita-

tion should be used in a broad sense to include all of the processes involved in

obtaining the technical evaluations of multiple experts. These processes include

reviewing available data, debating technical views with colleagues, evaluating the

credibility of alternative views, expressing interpretations and uncertainties in elici-

tation interviews, and documenting interpretations. In this sense, the evaluation pro-

cess begins with the first project meeting and ends with the finalisation of the

evaluation summaries. The elicitation in the context of SHA should not be con-

fused with the classical definition of elicitation used in the social sciences, which is

a strictly speaking a poll. Within a study, experts can have sometimes multiple roles

2.5Logic Tree Approach andTreatment ofUncertainties 17

(e.g. according to the SSHAC guidelines): they may be acting as proponents and

resource experts, as well as evaluators.

been set forth in the document Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts by the Senior Seismic

Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) (NRC 1997). The guidance was developed

under sponsorship of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US-NRC), the

Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the US Department of Energy

(US-DOE). The study was conducted with the purpose of drawing on the experience

gained from expert elicitation projects, particularly those conducted for nuclear

power plants in the central and eastern United States, and developing a consensus

position regarding acceptable methodologies. In reviewing the differences in PSHA

estimates conducted by different groups for individual sites, the SSHAC study con-

cluded that the differences were largely due to procedural differences in the manner

in which the PSHA was conducted. Hence, it is concluded that the procedural steps

are as important as the technical analyses that comprise a PSHA.

A basic principle defined by SSHAC (NRC 1997, p.21) is that: The underlying

basis for the inputs [to a PSHA] must be the composite distribution of views rep-

resented in the appropriate scientific community. Expert judgement is used to repre-

sent the informed scientific communitys state of knowledge.

As noted in NUREG/CR-6372 (NRC 1997, p.21), the goal of any formal expert

elicitation process is: To represent the centre, the body, and the range of technical

defensible interpretations that the larger informed technical community would have

if they were to conduct the study. In this context, informed means, hypotheti-

cally, that all, in the community, have a full understanding of the site-specific tech-

nical details. Thus, the experts become informed after having been exposed to the

site-specific data and models and having evaluated them. This happens through a

number of structured workshops in which data are presented, alternative models and

interpretations are debated, and feedback is given. Interaction among the experts

should be encouraged and dedicated elicitations should be conducted in form of

interviews. Since the publication of the SSHAC guidelines in 1997 a number of

PSHA studies have been carried out using this framework and the community has

developed some more practical guidance based on the experience gained from those

projects (NRC 2012).

Nevertheless, it should be mentioned that there are other approaches to collect

expert opinions and integrate them to a PSHA model. The SIGMA project was not

carried out under the SSHAC framework but made use of elements of it for building

site-specific hazard estimates.

18 2 General Concepts andPSHA Background

from different fields. As the work is often distributed in different work packages that

are usually done by different experts or expert groups, the issue of adequate inter-

faces needs to be addressed (see also Chap. 7).

The source characterization logic trees contain the complete earthquake defini-

tions (magnitude range, style of faulting, depth distribution, dip angles, magnitude-

area scaling). The ground motion experts need to consider these definitions when

evaluating the candidate ground motion models and address any significant differ-

ences between the source and ground motion characterization. Other interface

issues to be addressed are, for example, distance conversion relationships, focal

depth and mechanisms, which can be related to software implementations.

To improve the consideration of the ground motion and site-response interface,

this interface should be supported by a dedicated discussion or workshop. The rock

(VS30) to be used for the rock ground motion calculation can be based on the site-

specific shear-wave velocity profile at the site. The common understanding of this

interface layer, its depth, seismological and soil mechanical properties needs to be

developed.

Any interface issues with the end user engineers or PSA analysts should be eval-

uated at the very beginning of the project in order to ensure that all necessary param-

eters are addressed and captured. This is especially true with respect to any additional

ground motion parameter (e.g. duration, peak ground velocity, average spectral

acceleration over a given frequency band) that will be needed, e.g. for the fragility

calculations.

SIGMA has tried to consistently address these interface issues in order to improve

the hazard estimation. As will be discussed later in the report, SIGMA has, for

example, investigated and compared the different approaches to estimate the so-

called control point and to assess the impact of the choice of time histories for the

site response.

The required outputs depend on the specific intended use of the PSHA.There are

different perspectives that deserve to be mentioned and the study and associated

output should always be discussed and defined among all stakeholders at the very

beginning. First, the purpose of the PSHA could be for design or verification pur-

poses, or for input to a seismic probabilistic safety assessment. Second, the approach

will depend on if the output is applied to a new or existing structure, system or

component. Thus, the provided requirements below have to be understood as the

outcome of best practice and they are only indicative (see also IAEA SSG-9).

2.7Common Required Outputs forSeismic Hazard Results 19

For a site-specific hazard assessment, the ground motion is often presented for the

site-specific soil condition at different depths below the surface. Soil hazard curves

can, for example, be given at ground surface and foundation level of the turbine

building or reactor building, in the case of a nuclear power plant. Commonly, the

ground motions at depth are given as outcropping motion. The definition of the

project specific elevation levels should be made together with the engineers so as to

be consistent with their requirements (e.g. for soil-structure interaction

computations).

Usually, the hazard is computed for the geometric mean of the two horizontal com-

ponents and for the vertical component. This is because most GMPEs use this defi-

nition for the horizontal motion. The standard deviation of the horizontal

component-to-component variability, which can be used for the development of

time histories, can be added back in afterwards if necessary.

As the hazard computation is made for given frequencies, the project needs to define

the frequencies required to define the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). The choice

of the relevant frequencies should be made together with the engineers who will

subsequently use the results of the PSHA for design purposes or for probabilistic

safety assessments. To compute the rock hazard results over a representative fre-

quency range, the following nine spectral frequencies can, e.g., be defined: 0.5 Hz,

1 Hz, 2.5 Hz, 5 Hz, 10 Hz, 20 Hz, 33 Hz, 50Hz and 100Hz (which can generally

be interpreted as PGA).

The soil hazard should be computed at the nine spectral frequencies given above

for the rock hazard plus one or more additional frequencies, so that the site-specific

soil resonance is adequately represented. Depending on the number of frequencies

that have been used to determine the soil amplification, it may be worthwhile calcu-

lating the soil hazard at more frequencies in order to capture the peaks and valleys

of the soil response spectrum.

20 2 General Concepts andPSHA Background

Today, in order to satisfy the requirements and needs of modern probabilistic safety

assessments, the hazard curves should be defined down to an annual probability of

exceedance (APE) of 107/year (or 108/year). The annual rate of exceedance of

107/year stated here is a common reference value, e.g. if seismic PSA is necessary

for the plant. The actual underlying hazard computation provide much lower prob-

abilities, but the display of results can stop at this lowest annual probability of

exceedance for most end users. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the smallest

annual frequency of exceedance of interest will depend on the eventual use of the

PSHA and the 107/year have to be understood as indicative in the following.

The reference rock site seismic hazard for the horizontal components for each fre-

quency at a site should be supplied for ground motion levels, e.g. between 0.01 and

10 g and also higher accelerations until the mean annual hazard level falls below

107/year in order to achieve a reasonable sampling (e.g. by at least 30 values) of the

hazard curve down to low annual probabilities of exceedance.

The range (epistemic uncertainty) in the reference rock site hazard curves should

be presented for the horizontal and vertical components for each frequency in plots

of the 5%, 16%, 50%, 84% and 95% fractiles and the mean hazard. Numerically,

tables of the fractiles at 99 equally-weighted levels should be provided in order to

serve as adequate input for the probabilistic safety assessment. The fractile curves

are depicted (extended to small annual probabilities of exceedance respectively)

until they reach the PGA level where the mean annual hazard has the annual prob-

ability of exceedance of 107/year. As mentioned above, depending on the final use,

the very low annual probabilities of exceedance and fractiles may not be needed

(e.g. when defining design values).

The soil site hazard for the horizontal and vertical components for each frequency

at each plant should be supplied at the same ground-motion levels as specified in the

section above until the mean annual hazard level falls below 107/year.

2.7Common Required Outputs forSeismic Hazard Results 21

The range (epistemic uncertainty) in the soil site hazard curves should be presented

for the horizontal and vertical components for each frequency and each plant as fol-

lows: Plots of the 5%, 16%, 50%, 84% and 95% fractiles and the mean hazard (sup-

ported by tables of the fractiles).

Uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the horizontal and vertical components for the

soil site condition are usually computed and plotted for the following annual exceed-

ance frequencies, provided that no extrapolation of the hazard curves to these levels

is necessary: 102/year, 103/year, 104/year, 105/year, 106/year and 107/year. The

value of 2.1 103/year (= return period of 475 years) can be added if there is an

interest to compare the hazard value with that given in the national building code.

The ground motions for the UHS are determined by linear interpolation in log-log

space between the defined ground motion levels. The range (epistemic uncertainty)

in the UHS is shown in terms of the mean and the 5%, 16%, 50%, 84%, and 95%

fractiles.

2.7.2.5 Disaggregation

To be consistent with the representation of the UHS, the mean horizontal compo-

nent rock hazard should be disaggregated in terms of magnitude, distance, and

(number of standard deviations) at the following levels of annual exceedance fre-

quency: 102/year, 103/year, 104/year, 105/year, 106/year and 107/year. The dis-

aggregation plots (Sect. 6.5) are generated for the following representative

frequencies 1 Hz, 5 Hz, 10Hz and 100Hz. A disaggregation for additional frequen-

cies can be made on a structure-specific basis. The disaggregation is used to deter-

mine the controlling earthquakes in terms of magnitude, distance and , which is

usually used as guidance to select or develop time histories for engineering pur-

poses. In order to consistently select or develop time histories that are representative

of the hazard, the notion of is important, as the median prediction is not necessar-

ily the one that contributes the most. Based on the engineers will know if an aver-

age earthquake (thus, a mean prediction with = 0) should be assumed for the site

or if the very unusual earthquake (thus, above average with > 0, e.g. 2 or 3)

dominates.

22 2 General Concepts andPSHA Background

to be developed for engineering purposes. There are many available duration mod-

els (including global models for large magnitudes and region-specific models for

small magnitudes). The models applicable in the context of the study need to be

determined with respect to applicability to large magnitudes in the study region

(thus, usually with magnitudes up to 8) and consistency with the used ground

motion prediction models. Today, the GMPEs used to estimate spectral acceleration

(the most commonly used intensity parameter) do not provide a duration as explicit

parameter, but they are build including implicitly a duration model based on the

earthquakes used to develop the GMPE.The end user of a GMPE expressing spec-

tral acceleration usually overlooks this additional parameter and it has been seen in

the past that the regional duration models have a strong effect on the resulting

response spectra. Thus, for the sake of consistency between the proposed duration

model and the study results, specific thoughts on this issue need to be devoted from

the very beginning of a study.

In the past, there were few ground motion models for peak ground velocity (PGV),

so simplified scaling relations between PGV and spectral acceleration were often

used to estimate PGV.Many, but not all, of the new ground motion models include

models for PGV.The PGV hazard can be computed on the request of the engineers

if necessary, but it requires a full re-computation of the hazard for this intensity

measure.

A typical value adopted for the minimum magnitude of the hazard integral is Mw =

5.0 (assumption commonly used for nuclear plants). Based on the observation that

the Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV) is a parameter much better correlated with

the observed damages than other ground motion parameters, the CAV-filtering

approach was introduced by EPRI (2006) to consider, in the ground motion assess-

ment, only the contribution of seismic sources having a significant influence on the

structures. When such an approach is applied, a lower minimum magnitude is con-

sidered (e.g. Mw 4) and the CAV filtering is applied for sources with Mw between 4

and 5.5.

References 23

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tonic regions. Bull Seismol Soc Am 103(6):31493163

Walling MA (2009) Non-ergodic probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and spatial simulation of

variation in ground motion. PhD thesis, University of California, Berkeley

Walling MA, Abrahamson NA (2012) Non-ergodic probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. In:

Proceedings of the 15th world conference on earthquake engineering 15 WCEE, Paper 1627,

Lisboa

Chapter 3

Seismic Source Characterization

of a variety of parameters and data primarily collected in a geological, geophysical,

geotechnical and seismological database (D4-41, Carbon etal. 2012). It has three

fundamental objectives:

The identification (location and geometry) of all seismic sources contributing to

the total hazard at the site of interest. According to the seismotectonic context of

the site, and to the considered hazard return period, this involves developing the

database within a radius of a few hundred kilometres around the site and to con-

sider different scales of analysis especially when individual faults are

considered.

The characterization of the seismic activity with a large number of uncertain

parameters: the maximum magnitude of these seismic sources, their activity rate

and the models for seismicity distribution.

The consideration of all inherent epistemic and aleatory uncertainties and the

influence of the different uncertainties in the hazard results.

The main objectives of the SIGMA project were to better understand the sources

of uncertainties and their impact on the seismic hazard at the regional scale and at

the site scale, and to identify the actions to strengthen the confidence in the mean

and median hazard estimates and to reduce the dispersion in the measure of the

uncertainty, e.g. in the distance between the lower (5%, 16%) and upper fractiles

(84%, 95%) of the hazard curves resulting from the logic-tree.

While the SSC is often seen or considered as the sole responsibility of the geolo-

gists, an important lesson gained from the SIGMA project is that the management

of the interfaces among the different disciplines is of particular importance to

develop a robust and reliable seismic hazard assessment and is a significant indica-

tor of the degree of confidence in the results of the PSHA.

The two PSHA case studies for France and Italy have demonstrated that the

development of a complete seismic hazard assessment model requires the interven-

tion of specialists from various disciplines (geology, quaternary geology, seismology,

A. Pecker et al., An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Geotechnical,

Geological and Earthquake Engineering 42, DOI10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5_3

26 3 Seismic Source Characterization

From the identification and characterization of the seismic sources to the modelling

of site response, the communication and exchanges between the different specialists

and actors involved at each step of the PSHA are not always easy, and the integra-

tion of all the components and outputs of the different steps of a PSHA into a coher-

ent model, dealing in an appropriate manner with the uncertainties (e.g. identifying

the uncertainties without double or multiple counting and avoiding inclusion of

unnecessary branches in a logic-tree), remains a real challenge.

The SIGMA project has clearly identified this issue and was organized in differ-

ent work-packages with identification of the interactions between them. A signifi-

cant number of R&D actions were conducted within WP-1 to provide the inputs for

the SSC.Some of them were launched with the objective to be directly transferred

into operational application (site-specific hazard assessment) while others were

more dedicated to academic work with the objective to improve scientific knowl-

edge, to better characterize parameters required in a seismic hazard analysis or to

measure their impact on the ground-motion assessment.

The lessons learned during the SIGMA project are considered in this chapter,

under two perspectives:

What are the actions, tasks, efforts that should be considered when conducting a

PSHA after SIGMA compared with a PSHA developed before SIGMA; and

How to identify and manage the uncertainties that influence the hazard results

given the objectives of the PSHA.

At the onset of the SIGMA project, all the R&D tasks of WP-1 and WP-5 were

identified by a panel of institutions, research centres and consulting engineers, and

implemented by several research teams without possible consideration of the sim-

plifications needed for a PSHA calculation model. These simplifications of the vari-

ous interpretations and geological models developed by the geologists, provided in

the hazard input documents used by the hazard calculation team, are needed to

render the PSHA calculations operational.

While it is obvious that not all the research work can be easily transferred into

practical application, a site-specific PSHA must rely, especially when developed for

highly critical facilities, on unambiguous parameters that describe and reflect the

models elaborated by the team in charge of the SSC development. To avoid any

misunderstanding between this SSC team and the other teams (Ground motion and

hazard calculation teams), the interaction process between them should focus sys-

tematically on the preparation of the relevant sections of the hazard input docu-

ments with the aim of having a common understanding of the seismic source models

to be used for the hazard computation, making sure that there is a common under-

standing of the seismic source models and of obtaining confidence that the

3.1 Pre-requisites toDevelop theSSC Models 27

c alculation team adequately describes the models and ingredients in a complete and

unambiguous way.

To facilitate the interaction between the different components of the PSHA and

the consideration of the interfaces, as well as to determine which level of effort has

to be devoted to the development of the model, several requirements can be identi-

fied in carrying out the future PSHA, in particular:

Clearly define the objective of the PSHA and the deliverables that are expected

to be used by others. The end users are not the developers of the PSHA but most

often structural engineers in charge of the design of a new building or the retrofit

of existing buildings. If the needs of the end-users are explained, this may orien-

tate the work and tasks to be considered in the development of the models. For

instance, if it is known that the structural periods of interest are large, care will

be taken by the team in charge of the SSC to focus on the delineation and char-

acterization of seismic sources (and specifically of identified faults) that control

the long period content of the ground motion at specific return periods. The

objectives of the PSHA study are also a guide to the level of effort in the identi-

fication and propagation of uncertainties and in the scale to consider. This is

because the treatment of the uncertainties will not be the same whether the aim

is to provide ground motion estimates for low or for high probability of exceed-

ance or because the level of efforts will be different if the objective is to produce

regional hazard maps or to conduct a site-specific assessment for design pur-

poses. In the last case, the acquisition of data to identify fault sources at the site-

vicinity scale, the consideration of local effects (soil amplification, directivity),

the GMPEs adjustments, and single-station sigma become standard tasks that are

not considered in a regional study.

Identify the main relevant interfaces between the different components of the

PSHA.The interfaces between the various disciplines should be considered at an

early stage and at the various steps of the PSHA model development. This is the

case between the SSC (Seismic Source Characterization) and GMC (Ground

motion characterization) where the actors of SSC must provide the parameters

required in the selected GMPEs and vice versa the GMPEs developers must

seek, in the development or adjustment of their models, to account for the seis-

mic sources characteristics identified in the SSC model. SSC and GMC develop-

ers must also interact with the hazard calculation team to verify that their models

are properly included in the PSHA software.

Conduct preliminary sensitivity analyses to identify the seismic sources and

parameters that control the hazard at the site of interest, given: (1) the objectives

of the PSHA and, (2) the location and distance between the site and the identified

seismic sources. This allows focusing on the resolution of the most relevant com-

ponents of the PSHA, on the acquisition of data to characterize the controlling

sources and generally to simplify the model. As the calculation tools nowadays

allow managing complex logic trees, a key lesson learned from SIGMA is that

the quality of a future PSHA will greatly benefit from sensitivity analyses and

tests that are conducted at the beginning of the PSHA to identify which elements

28 3 Seismic Source Characterization

of the models exert the most significant control on the hazard results, at the speci-

fied return periods (and sometimes spectral periods) of interest.

3.2 D

atabase, Earthquake Catalogue, Magnitude

Conversions, Uncertainties onMetadata

Prior to the data integration and to the development of the SSC logic tree, the com-

pilation of all existing data and models that are relevant to characterize the seismic

context of the site or region of interest, constitutes the first stage of the PSHA.The

objective of the compilation is to provide a record and traceability of all the data

used during the project, and a description on how the data are interpreted and inte-

grated to develop the SSC models.

As described in D4-41 and D1-27, different scales must be considered from

regional to site scale, consistent with the rules or regulation adopted for the project.

The database is usually developed at four scales (regional, near regional, site vicin-

ity, and site) as described in the IAEA (2010)SSG-9 guide. When the purpose is a

site-specific assessment for NPs or other critical facilities, new data should be

acquired or generated through site investigations such as seismic profiles, local seis-

mic or accelerometric networks and geotechnical investigations. For other purposes,

new data acquisition would also represent a significant added value for the project.

The SSC model development is based on the coherent interpretation (integration

phase) of the data compiled in this database (e.g. existing bibliographic information,

databases already developed at regional scales, international publications, Ph.D.

theses and new data collected for the project).

A comparison of the PSHA conducted in the two regions considered within

SIGMA (South-East quarter of France and the Po Plain in Italy) is relevant to

emphasize the impact on the logic trees of new data: the more data are available or

newly generated (in case of the Po plain, benefiting from an extensive fault data-

base, see D1-27 and D1-67, dense seismic networks, see D2-72, and in situ mea-

surements), the more the logic tree can be refined and the more new generation

approaches (non-ergodic models, rupture simulations, seismic sources modelled as

faults rather than as area sources, host-to-target adjustments and single-station

sigma) can be implemented, see D4-94. One direct consequence is that the more

efforts are paid to the generation of new data, the more it becomes possible to better

capture/constrain the uncertainties in the seismic sources and more the predictive

models are accurate.

For nuclear sites the seismic hazard assessment must be regularly updated over

time and the operator must keep, for audit and safety purposes, a full traceability of

all the data (from regional to site scales) collected and generated during the life time

of the installation. Consequently, the database should be progressively enriched

with the inputs of more local data, like those retrieved during possible additional

3.2 Database, Earthquake Catalogue, Magnitude Conversions, Uncertainties 29

field investigations, and with the data acquired from monitoring activities during the

plant life.

The modern way to develop the database is to use a GIS database, where all the

data are georeferenced and all the objects included in the database described by a

series of attributes characterizing the geological, geophysical, geotechnical and

seismological information.

Keeping in mind the interfaces between the disciplines already mentioned in

Sect. 3.1, the database development should not be the sole responsibility of the SSC

team but must also include the information pertaining to the ground motion predic-

tion and all parameters that should be deemed necessary by the hazard calculation

team.

A description of such a database is available in D4-41. If the information is pri-

marily used to identify any earthquake-related geohazards that may affect the region

and to develop the seismic sources models, it must also describe the uncertainties

associated with each parameter, to allow the hazard calculation team to quantify the

influence of the uncertainties on the hazard estimates.

The databases developed in the two pilot regions (D4-41, D4-94) distinguish the

uncertainties respectively ascribed to area sources and to fault sources, which should

be considered in any PSHA.For area sources the uncertainties associated with the

following are considered:

The earthquake parameters;

The boundaries delimiting volumes of the earth crust showing a homogeneous

deformation pattern under the present stress field;

Activity rate/km2;

The nature of deformation/style of faulting, considering when necessary single

or multiple mechanism of deformation;

The thickness of the seismogenic crust;

The maximum magnitude; and

The parameters of the frequency-magnitude distribution in each source.

When considering fault sources additional uncertainties are considered (D4-94,

Ameri etal. 2015) and associated to:

The 3D geometry of the faults;

The rupture scenario (segmented/unsegmented);

The slip rates;

The characteristic magnitude; and

The background activity prevailing in the area source where the fault is located.

Assessing the completeness of the database available to develop the SSC models

is basically an indicator of the strategy that can be adopted to develop the logic tree

and of the uncertainties that can be introduced in the PSHA model. Again, the com-

parison between the two case studies indicates that the amount of data (existing or

specifically collected) is a significant parameter to determine the degree of refine-

ment that it is possible to introduce in the model. In the French case, it was very

clear that the limitation of the fault database did not allow developing a fault model

30 3 Seismic Source Characterization

covering the entire South-East region with a sufficient level of confidence. The strat-

egy was much more to introduce epistemic uncertainties in area source models con-

sidering different criteria to delineate the seismic sources (structural heritage, major

domains of deformation or tentative identification of fault systems). On the con-

trary, the Italian fault database [DISS, INGV; Burrato etal. (D1-27); Valensise (D1-

67)] and the new information acquired after the recent Emilia earthquake sequence

of May and June 2012, were used to develop a reliable model including fault sources

and paying less attention to the uncertainties associated with the area sources.

Among the data, the preparation of the earthquake catalogue (including different

time scales) is identified as a crucial step of the SHA because the data are used at

several stages of the analysis (determination of maximum observed and assumed

magnitude, distribution of activity rates, deformation pattern and so forth). Such a

step relies on the compilation, interpretation and integration of multiple sources,

including pre-historical, historical and instrumental seismicity.

The strategy deployed between the initial and the refined PSHA in the two case

studies was significantly different, even if the common objective was to develop

more reliable estimates of Mw. A significant difference in the two regions is that a

number of earthquakes of magnitudes between 4.0 and 6.0 occurred in Italy since

the 1960s and hence benefit from direct determinations of Mw, while in France most

of the earthquakes in this range of magnitudes are only known from macroseismic

observations.

For the Po plain, the catalogue used at the beginning of the project was CPTI11

(Rovida etal. 2011), covering earthquakes up to 2007, developed for Italy as the

national parametric earthquake catalogue. Sensitivity analyses were conducted in

the second version of the PSHA (improvement of the magnitude conversions) and

the decision was taken to only consider Mw magnitudes above a minimum cut-off

level of Mw 4.5 to avoid magnitude conversions for small events, deemed less suit-

able to calculate the Gutenberg-Richter parameters.

In the French case, no homogenized catalogue was available at the beginning of

the project, each institute developing its own rationale to convert the historical

earthquakes defined in MSK intensities and the instrumental earthquakes into Mw.

The initial catalogue was developed based on conversions among magnitude scales

and encompassed Mw above 2.0in order to include small magnitudes from which to

calculate the Gutenberg-Richter parameters in low activity areas. For the updated

model, a new catalogue is considered taking benefit from the national instrumental

Si-Hex catalogue in Mw (D1-110; Denieul etal. 2015) and from the homogenized

Mw derived from the exploitation of macroseismic intensities and new empirical

macroseismic predictive equations (D1-147).

An important lesson from SIGMA (French case) was that the effort for the devel-

opment of a homogenized catalogue from scratch combining instrumental and mac-

roseismic data was significantly underestimated, the catalogue being only finalized

at the end of the project. Significant progress has been accomplished but it remains

as an objective to develop a unique catalogue homogenized in Mw, and prepared

(with consistency between instrumental Mw and Mw derived from macroseismic

3.2 Database, Earthquake Catalogue, Magnitude Conversions, Uncertainties 31

data, completeness periods assessment and declustering) to refine the PSHA in the

region of interest. More specifically:

Source parameters have been significantly improved for the instrumental events

with the joint effort of the Si-Hex project: EOST developed a relocation and a Mw

assessment based on the coda of recorded events (D1-110, Denieul PhD, 2014;

Denieul etal. 2015), ISTERRE and CEA made a specific analysis based on ceps-

tral analysis and genetic inversion of teleseismic records to improve the depth

estimate of significant events (D1-50, Letort PhD; Letort etal. 2014, 2015). The

French catalogue is composed of approximately 40,000 events for which both

location and Mw are more accurate. Declustering of the catalogue according to

Marsan and Lenglin (2008, 2010) is valuable and can be used as complemen-

tary to more standard methods (Gardner and Knopoff 1974; Reasenberg 1985)

commonly adopted.

A preliminary set of source parameters defined for 15 pre-instrumental events in

the period 19001972 were investigated (D1-129) based on waveform inversion.

While the Mw magnitude can be better constrained, the method does not allow for

the determination of a robust depth estimate and significant expert judgment is

still necessary to infer a best estimate of Mw and depth. The results on Mw repre-

sent valuable information on events typically studied only through macroseismic

data.

Exploratory works were conducted on the determination of isoseismal areas

using automatic assessment either based on kriging techniques (D1-31 and

D1-128) or on manual determination of isoseismals (D1-148). While promising

these two alternatives to the method based on calibrated intensity prediction

equations, still present limitations (high sensitivity to the parameters adopted in

the kriging approach, bias introduced by the expert interpretation of the intensity

data points (IDP), no systematic quantification of magnitudes/depth); conse-

quently, it was decided to adopt a more classic and robust approach to refine the

historical earthquake catalogue. A preliminary work was also conducted for

revisiting the analysis and contextualisation of historical documents (D1-60).

This action should certainly be more systematically conducted in order to control

the IDP interpretations of the most significant events and to verify that no bias

was introduced in the current French historical database, developed by a single

analyst since 20 years.

The definition of macroseismic attenuation models using macroseismic data

points to derive Mw for the historical events (D1-108) has required the develop-

ment of a robust set of well calibrated events including data from the neighbour-

ing regions. A new earthquake catalogue has been developed and its impact on

the seismic hazard is still ongoing.

The sensitivity analyses in the Gutenberg-Richter parameters estimates and in

the hazard results, conducted using different conversions between Mw and other

magnitude scales, as well as on different strategies in the evaluation of Mw from

macroseismic data (D1-108), demonstrate that in regions of low to moderate activ-

ity these sources of uncertainty in the determination of the correlated parameters a

32 3 Seismic Source Characterization

and b of the G-R magnitude frequency distribution significantly impact the hazard

estimates at low annual frequencies of exceedance. This is not observed in the more

active Italian region where the G-R parameters are more stable and mainly con-

trolled by the instrumental Mw values. The consolidation of the Mw catalogue in the

French area appears as one of the tasks that may significantly contribute to a reduc-

tion of the hazard estimate dispersion of the future site-specific PSHA conducted in

this region. More efforts should be made in such contexts to collect additional

description on the effects of historical earthquakes, to enrich the macroseismic data-

base and to revise the definition of the intensity data points.

3.3.1 D

iffuse Seismicity VersusIdentified Seismogenic

Structures

Within the SIGMA project, the following two types of seismic sources were

considered:

Area sources where earthquakes occur on faults that are not identified or not

identifiable using our current knowledge and understanding of the seismogenic

mechanisms. In this case the future earthquakes are assumed to be distributed

throughout the entire area source.

Fault sources where earthquakes only occur on identified seismogenic structures

defined by static parameters (geometry of the fault) and kinematic parameters

(mechanism of rupture).

To identify the fault sources, it is necessary to exploit appropriate data to develop

models representative of a physical process. Since any tectonic earthquake is gener-

ated by a causative fault, the concept of area sources of diffuse seismicity zones

reveals our inability to identify the causative faults, due either to the impossibility

to understand the seismogenic process or to a lack of studies or efforts in acquiring

the relevant data. This implies that when fault sources are considered, the seismic

hazard calculation focus on the development of models of a physical phenomenon

that is constrained by boundary conditions, while when considering diffuse seismic-

ity areas, we model a conceptual process for which the boundary conditions are

much looser.

3.3 Seismic Source Models 33

One of the objectives of SIGMA was to identify the sources of uncertainty in the

seismic source models, to incorporate these uncertainties in the hazard calculations

and to quantify their impact and influence on the PSHA outputs.

In consideration of the purposes of the SIGMA project, the conceptual SSC

framework was driven by different considerations:

While a number of R&D tasks have been conducted within the work packages 1

and 4, the driver was much more to focus on individual components of the seis-

mic source models, rather than obtaining new SSC models under SIGMAs own-

ership. This choice was made because the main priority was given to the

identification of the influence of the uncertainties, rather than to the development

of new models. This is because the development of these models was considered

as requiring a project itself. The method was based on comparisons between

PSHA results obtained at the beginning of the project using existing SSC models

(D4-29, D4-41), and PSHA results at the end of the project obtained after

improvement of components of the SSC models (D4-94, D4-138) on which the

R&D efforts focused. Different metrics were defined to measure how the hazard

estimates were improved and how much the uncertainties were reduced. This

was performed using comparisons between the mean and median of the ground-

motion predictor variables as well as ratios between selected fractiles at selected

spectral periods and annual probabilities of exceedance of the hazard curves.

Between the initial and final PSHA runs, refinements of existing models were

considered to improve the SSC logic tree. In the French case, a new area source

model was developed with the purpose of better accounting for fault systems that

were the object of a specific task within SIGMA (Belledonne fault system and

faults in Provence) and a fault source model was introduced covering the

Provence sub-region. In the Italian case a new area source was identified to

account for deeper events and a new composite faults model was introduced.

The new conceptual models were introduced to consider alternative future spa-

tial distributions of earthquakes (geometry of seismic sources) and the occur-

rence processes and hazard computation approaches (Poisson using the doubly

truncated exponential model and the characteristic model, elapsed time model,

renewal model and non-ergodic model the last applied only in the Po Plain

region).

Epistemic uncertainties in the SSC models were initially identified and quanti-

fied adopting a process where the teams in charge of the seismic hazard assessment

(WP 4) developed their own assessment, based on existing seismic source zonations

at national or regional scales, and using as extensively as possible outputs from

WP1 as well as inputs produced in other scientific work. The SSC models and iden-

tified uncertainties considered in the initial PSHA (D4-29; Faccioli etal. 2012; and

D4-41) represent the decision taken and choices by the analysts when integrating

the data available at the beginning of the project, developing their interpretations

34 3 Seismic Source Characterization

and having alternative solutions in mind. The models were reviewed by independent

experts from the scientific committee and interaction with the reviewers and with

other experts occurred through the Scientific Committee meetings and critical

review of the deliverables. As such, the models initially developed by the two haz-

ard teams were significantly improved in the course of the project (D4-94; Faccioli

etal. 2015; D4-138 and D4-169) benefiting from the feedback of sensitivity analy-

ses and the introduction of new alternatives and new outputs resulting from the

research tasks based on the recommendations and advice by the Scientific

Committee.

Most of the SIGMA models consider both area source zones and fault sources. The

case of fault sources was treated in more detail in the Italian test zone where more

geological and seismological data exist. The PSHA models consider, to a lesser

extent, also a zone-less approach where the seismicity is spatially smoothed. In such

a case the degree of spatial smoothing is controlled by the size and distance of the

kernel function. This approach is an alternative to the classical seismotectonic mod-

els that consider a well-defined geometry of the seismic sources, and it is of signifi-

cant interest when there are large uncertainties in the geological model. One

drawback of the approach is that the seismicity rates are a function of the kernel

distance, which is a difficult parameter to determine. This may lead to overestimat-

ing or underestimating the hazard, especially at large return periods, which is a

reason why the weights in the logic tree may be different at short and long return

periods (D4-170).

In the more active Italian area of interest the project principally focused on the

development of a composite seismic source model, for which a single area source

model was considered as a starting point, i.e. the so-called ZS9 (Meletti etal. 2008)

adopted for the official Italian seismic hazard map. This model was refined (D4-29,

Faccioli 2013) in the geometry of some of the area sources and, more notably, by

introducing a deep dipping zone, subduction-like, that describes the slab under the

Po Plain dipping towards the Tyrrhenian Sea, which is justified by the analysis of

the earthquake focal depths.

In the French case study, three area source models were considered to capture the

variability of the activity rates in a more stable region. All models integrate static

and dynamic parameters defined in the GIS database, but consider different strate-

gies to delineate the seismic sources. One model gives more emphasis to the inher-

ited geological structure (Fig.3.1, D4-41). A second model gives more emphasis to

known fault systems and to the seismic activity, as identified by the distribution of

3.3 Seismic Source Models 35

Fig. 3.1 Area source model 1 of the French case study based on the combined interpretation of

static and dynamic parameters characterizing the earth crust (D4-41)

historical and instrumental earthquakes. This model considers smaller areas. The

third model is more controlled by the identification of a coherent deformation pat-

tern and includes larger area sources.

The consideration of fault source models is of significant interest for sites where

fault sources may control the hazard at specific ranges of spectral periods (low or

high), when the purpose is to assess the hazard at long return periods, or when direc-

tivity effects can significantly affect the ground motion.

For fault sources, the style of faulting and the strike and dip of ruptures may be

single or composite. In this case, the logic tree should encompass all types of style

of faulting, with weights adding up to 1 (reverse, normal, strike-slip, unknown). The

36 3 Seismic Source Characterization

Fig. 3.2 Composite seismogenic fault sources considered in the Po plain (D4-94). Orange sources

are the fault sources considered for the hazard assessment at three sites (purple triangles)

strike and the dip are a function of the style of faulting and of the level of approxi-

mation with which the fault is identified from the data.

The reliability of fault source models in low to moderate activity regions is, how-

ever, controversial as data to characterize all the parameters required as input to the

PSHA model are often missing. Hence, the approaches adopted in the two SIGMA

case studies were significantly different.

Composite fault sources were considered in the Italian logic tree (D4-94) with

seismic activity described by the characteristic earthquake model for large magni-

tudes and by the usual Poisson truncated exponential model for the background

seismicity. The existing national and regional fault database (DISS Version 3.11,

INGV) was used and completed by Burrato etal. (D1-27) and Burrato and Valensise

(D1-67) by introducing the data generated by the recent sequence of May 2012, to

refine the composite source model (SSC) of the Po Plain (Faccioli et al. D4-94,

Fig. 3.2). Because of the limitations of GMPEs to capture site-specific ground-

motion properties at short distances from the fault ruptures (like near-field and

directivity effects), an innovative approach was introduced by the Italian team. They

compare and check, at two sites, the results using a simulation of the ground motion,

in which the ground-motion propagation between the ruptures and the site results

from deterministically simulated ground motion in replacement of the empirical

GMPEs. Finite-fault stochastic simulations were carried out using the EXSIM soft-

ware (Motazedian and Atkinson 2005) which considers the (1D) local site response,

and the generalized description of ground-motion attenuation called GAF (Faccioli

2013, and Faccioli etal. D4-94) was applied to the same composite source model as

3.3 Seismic Source Models 37

GAF stress drop 30

1 AB11(49-50-51 CSS)

Ita13(49-50-51 CSS)

NTC2008

0.8

UH SA [g]

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

10-1 100

T[s]

Fig. 3.3 Po plain case study (presentation slides by Faccioli, Lyon SC meeting 14/11/2013).

Comparison of UHS for CAS study site at 2475 years return period, obtained with Composite

Seismogenic Sources (CSS) treated as simple area sources and characteristic earthquake behav-

iour, and finite-fault stochastic simulations (GAF, green lines), using two different GMPEs (AB11

and Ita13). Black dotted line corresponds to the standard spectrum of the NTC2008 Italian code for

ground type C

the one developed considering the characteristic model. Comparison at one of the

study sites, in terms of UHS, demonstrated the interest of such an approach to

enhance site-specific peculiarities that impact the predicted ground motion, due to

the site location in its seismo-tectonic context or soil conditions (Fig.3.3). As in any

simulation, one difficulty is to determine the appropriate range of values for all

parameters required to run the model (fault distribution layout, slip distribution,

path effects and distance dependence of the signal amplitude, stress drop and kappa),

which remains sensitive to each parameter. Such an approach requires good site-

specific data as is the case for the Po plain application, where for the CAS site

(shown in Fig.3.3) the site spectral amplification function used in the GAF approach

was based on observations from a vertical array. This may be considered representa-

tive of future PSHA evolution when the ergodic assumptions introduced at different

steps of the classic approach do not allow capturing the potential site-specific

effects.

38 3 Seismic Source Characterization

On the French side, the main actions conducted to improve the fault characteriza-

tion focused on:

Geomorphological and tectonic analysis of the Belledonne fault system (D1-66),

tentatively considered as an area source of small extension in the preliminary

SSC model;

Tentative fault database in South-East quarter of France (D1-127); and

Geomorphological and topographic marker analysis in Provence and low Rhone

Valley (D1-149).

As findings of these works were not sufficiently conclusive to be integrated in a

fault model within the schedule of the project, the fault model introduced in the final

PSHA relies on a model developed of the Provence region for the CEA.Between

the initial and final PSHA, the software code was changed to better model the rup-

ture geometry and to improve the calculation of the distance metrics, which were

questioned when comparing the PSHA codes (D4-140 and Chap. 6). The results of

the sensitivity analyses demonstrate that in the French context, the influence of the

fault model on the hazard results is only significant at large return periods and for

sites close to the faults. This would confirm and underline the necessity of near-

regional and site-vicinity scale investigations for critical infrastructures.

Smoothed seismicity representations, which usually do not account for the geologi-

cal or tectonic settings, represent a valuable alternative strategy to area or fault

source models. This approach is used in nuclear and non-nuclear projects in the US

(CEUS USGS Moschetti and Petersen 2012; CEUS-SSC EPRI, DOE, NRC

2012) and was tested in both SIGMA case studies. The main basic assumptions to

implement the smoothed seismicity approach (as applied in the French case study)

are the following:

Future earthquakes are more likely to occur close to past earthquakes. This

allows the development of a spatial-likelihood function (also called kernel func-

tions or smoothing kernels) to predict the location of future events.

Different types of scaling can be used to define the smoothing kernels, such as:

(1) A fixed size kernel; (2) A magnitude-dependent kernel for which the smooth-

ing width is proportional to the magnitude (the larger the earthquake magnitude,

the wider the kernel function); (3) A spatially adaptive kernel according to

Helmstetter etal. (2007), such that the smoothing width at a given point is equal

to the distance to the n-th closest earthquake. In highly active areas, the smooth-

ing width is much shorter that in weakly active areas. This model is a density-

dependent function.

The smoothed gridded seismicity rates are calculated from a declustered, Mw,

earthquake (EQ) catalogue using the data within the completeness periods.

3.3 Seismic Source Models 39

The smoothed gridded seismicity rates calculated at each Mw bin are analysed to

evaluate the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) parameters at each grid point.

Super-domains may be used to define different Mmax and to spatially constrain the

smoothed seismicity (leaky/strict boundaries)

A different approach was adopted in the Italian case study, as will be seen in the

following. Other assumptions that may or may not be introduced are:

The maximum magnitude and thickness of the seismogenic crust are defined

consistently with the zonation approach and a strategy can be applied to attribute

a tectonic style to each grid point.

Even if the smoothing seismicity models do not formally account for the seis-

motectonic characteristics as is done for a seismotectonic zonation, it remains

possible to introduce super-domains to consider strong boundaries delimiting

significant deformation patterns. This issue (related to the strict/leaky boundary

effects on the kernel definition), however, was not addressed during the project.

In the French SIGMA case study, alternative smoothing models were imple-

mented (D4-138, D4-170). A zoneless approach was included in the logic tree also

for the Italian case study, where a higher weight was assigned to the model-based

branches (area sources and Fault sources + Background seismicity) with respect to

the gridded ones (0.6 vs 0.4), for return periods = 2475 and 10,000 years, but equal

weights for RP = 475 years. Equal weights were assigned for 475 years also in the

French case study, while the weight was decreased to 0.1 for the smoothed seismic-

ity branch for the 10,000 year return period. For the Po Plain, the HAZGRID

smoothed seismicity model (Akinci 2010, updated with the 2011 CPTI11 cata-

logue), based on Poisson occurrences (time-independent) was applied; this operates

on a regular grid of point sources, 0.1 0.1 in size, with smoothing performed

spatially by a 2-D Gaussian function with 25km correlation length, and a constant

G-R b-value = 1.26 determined on a nation-wide basis. In the French case 2-D,

isotropic, Gaussian smoothing kernels were used considering spatially adaptive,

radii kernels. The maximum magnitude and hypocentral depth distributions were

defined consistently with one of the area source models.

On average, it was observed that the mean spectral acceleration distribution asso-

ciated to the gridded seismicity branch is lower than that associated to the area or

fault source models. From the sensitivity analyses, results were shown to be sensi-

tive to the choice of the minimum magnitude above which the seismicity rates are

derived and quite large hazard variability was caused by the adopted smoothing

adaptive kernels. A specific investigation on the benefit of using strict boundary

conditions rather than leaky conditions may help to reduce the edge effects included

in the spectral acceleration distribution. When the variations of seismic activity

within the large region considered around the site of calculation is significant, the

use of isotropic smoothing kernels may be questionable. In this matter, the use of

strict boundaries within super-domains should be considered in regions where

abrupt changes in the activity rates are observed. This, however, was not checked

during the project.

40 3 Seismic Source Characterization

Several lessons were learnt from SIGMA through the work carried out and the

review process, namely:

Epistemic uncertainty in the area source boundaries must be introduced espe-

cially when sites are close to those boundaries. This is because the contrast in

seismicity rates between the host zones and neighbouring zones significantly

affects the estimated hazard. This can be done by considering alternative SSC

models and considering several types of models in the logic-tree (Area/Fault/

Smoothed seismicity).

The zoneless and gridded seismicity approaches are of significant interest for

testing the standard PSHA approach and to counterbalance the remaining uncer-

tainty associated to the boundaries of the seismic sources. In areas with moderate

seismicity the earthquake sample is, however, not representative of the long-term

seismicity and does not include large/rare events, close to the characteristic or

maximum magnitude, which are needed for the predictions of ground motion at

low annual frequency of exceedance. The validity of the zoneless approach is

more questionable at those frequencies. When included in the logic-tree, the

weighting scheme must consider the objective of the PSHA (e.g. the return peri-

ods of interest) and the robustness of the earthquake catalogue. A higher weight

was adopted in the Italian case study, because the gridded model had the best

ranking for a RP of 1000 years, and a middle score for a RP of 475 years accord-

ing to the ranking procedure discussed in Albarello etal. (2013).

While extensively used when fault sources are considered, the characteristic

model requires parameters (slip rates and recurrence of the Characteristic mag-

nitudes), the definition of which suffers from a scarcity of geological data and

earthquake catalogue records in zones of moderate seismicity. Significant efforts

to acquire new data remain necessary to introduce fault models and, potentially,

fault rupture simulation in future PSHA.While the composite source model for

Italy is developed using a quantity of local and recent data, which justify its

introduction in the logic tree, the same model is more questionable for France

except where data support the identification of the fault geometry and allow for

the characterization of its activity.

Ground-motion simulations based on fault rupture modelling are seen as poten-

tial future methods that can bring significant information when ergodic models

present too strong limitations in predicting the ground motions. This is especially

the case when sites are located close to identified active faults. This also provides

a way to reduce the uncertainties in a context where the seismic sources that

control the seismic hazard in the regions of interest are located at short distances,

where near-fault ground motions (long-period pulses, permanent ground dis-

placements and directivity effects) may significantly differ from ground motions

predicted by conventional GMPEs.

A preliminary fault database was developed within SIGMA for SE France, but

such a database should contain all the parameters required in the calculation

3.4 Occurrence Processes 41

process: fault geometry (length, width, strike and dip), direction of slip (rake

angle), the time history of fault slip (slip-time function), rupture initiation, rup-

ture velocity, stress drop, slip ratio and so forth. It was recognized that more

interaction is necessary between the geologists in charge of the database devel-

opment and the team in charge of the ground-motion assessment and hazard

estimation.

Arriving at the completion of the project, a large number of new data and ingre-

dients were developed within WP1. However, the adopted strategy to identify the

uncertainties in the SSC and test their influence on the hazard results did not allow

the development of new SSC models for France within the time frame of the project.

A significant benefit of the actions conducted during SIGMA to improve the geo-

logical and seismological database would consist in integrating the new database

and methods to develop new seismic source models. This should be considered in

an extension of the project.

Among the models used within the SIGMA project, the magnitude distribution or

magnitude probability density function that describes the relative number of earth-

quakes that occur in a given seismic source between Mmin and Mmax was essentially

defined in the final models considering:

the Poisson model with a truncated exponential PDF; and

the characteristic model.

In the Italian case study (Phase I, see D4-29) alternative models, such as the so-

called renewal model, were also checked. The time dependence is modelled by a

renewal process with a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) distribution. In this model,

the occurrence of large earthquakes is assumed to present a recurrence and the time

of a past strong earthquake is considered through a conditional probability that an

earthquake occurs in the next years given that it has or not occurred already in the

last years. A key parameter in applying a renewal model is the periodicity of the

earthquake recurrence interval, which requires either a complete earthquake cata-

logue or sufficient paleo-seismological studies to constrain the input parameters to

the model.

because the behaviour of individual faults is not known in sufficient detail to estab-

lish a reliable fault-specific activity model. In this case, all earthquakes within the

42 3 Seismic Source Characterization

seismic source are assumed to be independent and the probability distribution of the

small to moderate earthquakes is exponential. The most common approach is the

doubly truncated exponential distribution (Gutenberg and Richter 1956). The spa-

tial variation of recurrence parameters is considered as uniform or varying. In the

latter case, when a smoothed/gridded seismicity representation is adopted, a spatial

smoothing is applied considering a kernel function or an adaptive kernel function

that accounts for the spatial density of the epicentres or the magnitude (see

Sect.4.3).

Fault sources tend to obey a different principle (Youngs and Coppersmith 1985),

whereby individual faults or fault segments generate ruptures of similar size at

recurrent intervals, representative of a characteristic event. The model is typically

assumed to follow a truncated normal distribution to account for variability in the

characteristic magnitude. To allow small and moderate magnitudes to occur on the

fault, a composite model is considered, based on a combination of the truncated

exponential model up to the characteristic magnitude (or to a somewhat smaller

magnitude) and the characteristic magnitude for large earthquakes. The characteris-

tic model requires the definition of fault slip rates and characteristic magnitude Mchar.

dependent seismicity models was performed and that within the Italian DPC-INGV

S2 project both stationary and non-stationary earthquake time occurrence models

were tested for the evaluation of the seismicity of Italy. These examples showed, in

some zones, significantly higher hazard, when the time since the last occurrence is

long, than in the classic approach based on Poisson occurrence applied to seismic

source zones, in moderate or low seismicity regions.

tude (Mmax) is one of the most controversial issues in the definition of seismic source

parameters required in a PSHA, especially for long return periods for which the

hazard is governed by events with large magnitudes. The methods of determination

of Mmax were significantly different in the two case studies.

3.5 Maximum Magnitude andRecurrence Parameters 43

models generally involving a magnitude range between a lower and an upper bound

and a probability density function.

In the initial model for the Po plain, (D4-29) the maximum magnitudes were

inspired by the results of the European SHARE (2013) project. Mmax was taken as

the maximum observed magnitude in each superzone of SHARE(2013), imposing

a lower limit of 6.5. The uncertainties associated to the maximum magnitude were

between 0.3 and 0.5 and were used to propagate the uncertainties in Mmax as a ran-

dom variable with truncated uniform distribution. In the same initial model, the

mean Mmax values were also made to depend on depth, by decreasing them down to

a minimum of 5.0 in association with the lowest depth used for the area sources

(4 km). In the second version of the model (D4-94), the same assumptions were

maintained for Mmax and its dependence on depth. For the composite source model

all faults able to generate Mw 5.5 or higher were considered. The method of the char-

acteristic model was used with Mchar between 5.5 and 6.0, with an uncertainty of 0.3.

In the French case, the maximum magnitude was initially defined as a uniform

distribution between lower and upper bounds of Mmax (D4-41). The lower Mmax limit

was defined based on an increment applied to the maximum observed magnitude in

zones of similar deformation and the upper bound by the maximum fault dimen-

sions in each area source.

In D4-138 and D4-170 a careful sensitivity analysis was performed in order to

test different methods for the definition of the Mmax distribution (Fig.3.4), including

0.01 0.01 0.01

2012 SIGMA

0.001 0.001 0.001 Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

APE

0 400 800 1200 0 400 800 1200 0 400 800 1200

PGA [cm/s2] PGA [cm/s2] PGA [cm/s2]

0.01 0.01 0.01

APE

PSA T=1s [cm/s2] PSA T=1s [cm/s2] PSA T=1s [cm/s2]

Fig. 3.4 Effect of different epistemic Mmax distributions on the PGA and PSA (T = 1s) mean haz-

ard curves at three sites. The epistemic uncertainties on Mmax have a notable impact on seismic

hazard at low annual probabilities of exceedance

44 3 Seismic Source Characterization

the EPRI (1994) Bayesian approach that provides a framework to handle, in a trans-

parent and reproducible way, the definition of Mmax in low-seismicity areas (Ameri

etal. 2015). The approach was applied by distinguishing two areas with very low

seismicity and areas of moderate seismicity in the SHARE superzones (area source

model and earthquake catalogue). Two prior Mmax distributions have thus been

developed. The likelihood functions and the posterior Mmax distribution are calcu-

lated for three domains of the French South-East quarter, characterized by different

level of seismic activity, and are applied in the final PSHA.It was found that the

lower bound was significantly increased (toward maximum observed magnitude,

except for one model) while the upper bound is consistent with the initial estimate.

The shape of the posterior Mmax distribution is defined on a more rational basis than

the assignment of weights through expert judgement.

For fault sources, Mmax was estimated from the fault dimensions and scaling

laws. Possible fault segmentation was considered to determine different alterna-

tives. Using the fault segmentation approach requires having available sufficient

data to identify geometric discontinuities that may stop the ruptures. This is a key

issue when developing fault models as it impacts both the definition of the maxi-

mum magnitude and the characteristic magnitude and it benefits from appropriate

data to weight the models considering multiple segments or unsegmented faults.

The activity rates of the different magnitude levels between Mmin and Mmax charac-

terize the magnitude density function representative of a seismic source.

The estimation of the activity rates based on the seismic catalogue requires fit-

ting the truncated exponential model and paying attention to: the earthquake sample

deemed to be statistically representative of the seismicity, the homogenized magni-

tude scale of the catalogue, the completeness periods of the catalogue and the statis-

tical independence of the events.

The common approach used in the two SIGMA case studies was to derive the

activity rates and the b-value through the maximum likelihood method (Weichert

1980), while other methods were applied in sensitivity analysis, such as least-

squares and weighted least-squares (D4-128).

For the calculation of G-R parameters, some significant differences between the

two case studies are noticeable. The minimum magnitude adopted was significantly

higher, Mw 4.5, in the Italian case (thus corresponding to the minimum magnitude

of the hazard integral), while it was Mw 2.5in the French case due to more sparse

seismicity. More specific attention was paid in the French case to propagating the

uncertainties of the frequency magnitude distribution considering the uncertainties

in the magnitude estimates and running Monte Carlo simulations. In the Italian

case, however, the influence of adopting a lower bound magnitude Mw 2.5 (as in the

initial study, D4-29) or Mw 4.5 (as in the final version, D4-94) for the estimation of

3.5 Maximum Magnitude andRecurrence Parameters 45

2.5 2.5

4 old par

new par

2 2 3.5

1.5 1.5

2.5

UH SA [g]

UH SA [g]

UH SA [g]

2

1 1

1.5

1

0.5 0.5

0.5

0 0 0

-1 0 -1 0 -1 0

10 10 10 10 10 10

T[s] T[s] T[s]

Fig. 3.5 UHS for three return periods (RP) at the Italian CAS (Casaglia) study site: shown are the

initial study D4-29 results (blue curves, old par) using Mwmin 2.5in the calculation of G-R param-

eters, and those of the final study D4-94 (green curves, new par) using Mwmin 4.5, for which no

magnitude scale conversions were needed in the sample catalogue

the G-R parameters was discussed in detail and shown to have a moderate influence,

as shown in Fig.3.5.

In the final version of the SE France model, and following the recommendations

of the scientific committee, the uncertainties in the G-R parameters for each zone

were quantified by directly propagating the uncertainties on the earthquake cata-

logue in terms of earthquake Mw and completeness period, via a Monte Carlo

approach. In practice, many synthetic catalogues were generated by sampling

uncertainties on Mw and completeness periods and, for each realization, a G-R

model was fitted to the calculated rates, to obtain a series of correlated a and b val-

ues introduced as branches of the logic tree (Fig.3.6, D4-138).

The GR parameters a and b are not independent, and the implementation of the

associated uncertainty propagation in the PSHA software must be clearly

explained considering the correlation between the parameters.

The estimation of the G-R parameters (a and b) is quite stable in regions of

moderate-to-high seismicity. This was demonstrated within the Po Plain model

where the final G-R parameters are calculated considering a high cut-off Mmin

(Mw > = 4.5) threshold from which the uncertainties related to the magnitude

homogenization substantially decrease because the moment magnitude estima-

tion is mostly provided by moment tensor solutions rather than by using

magnitude-conversion equations. On the contrary, the estimation of G-R param-

eters in low seismicity areas remains a challenging task. Within the French

model, the minimum Mw used for the fitting of the G-R correlation was quite

46 3 Seismic Source Characterization

zone name: 4010

1 10

10

0 0

10 10

-1 -1

10 10

annual rate M+

annual rate M+

-2 -2

10 10

-3 -3

10 10

-4 -4

10 10

-5 -5

10 10

2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5

Mw Mw

zone name: 4010 zone name: 4010

4 3

3.5 2

3 1

epsilon a-value

a-value

2.5 0

2 -1

1.5 -2

1 -3

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

b-value epsilon b-value

Fig. 3.6 example of assessment of G-R parameters for a seismic source. Upper-left: G-R derived

based on the observed rates in the catalogue. Vertical bars represent the 16-84 confidence intervals.

Upper-right: G-R models (in grey) derived from 500 synthetic catalogue. Red symbols represent

the rates for each synthetic catalogue and blue symbols the observed rate for the initial catalogue.

Lower-left: a and b correlated values of the 500 G-R models. Lower-right: plot of epsilon

a = (a a)/a and of epsilon b = (b b)/b

variable and typically much smaller than the one used for the Italian region (as

low as Mw = 2in the most stable areas). This implies that during the magnitude

homogenization process, Mw was estimated from other magnitude types based on

conversion equations that typically carry large uncertainties. Moreover, because

the number of earthquakes is limited, the estimated activity rates are affected by

large uncertainties, which require conducting more sensitivity analyses and alter-

native methods to capture the uncertainties in the activity rates and recurrence

parameters.

Especially in regions of low to moderate activity, the maximum magnitude esti-

mates have a significant impact when the objective is to provide ground-motion

assessment at annual frequencies of exceedance lower that 104 (Fig.3.4). The

selection of values just because they have been published in scientific journals or

scientific projects is not acceptable when the purpose of such a project was to

conduct seismic hazard assessments for annual probability of exceedance much

3.6 Logic-Tree Implications 47

hazard assessment (e.g. for nuclear projects). While no specific task to develop a

methodology and to assess the Mmax distribution and its uncertainties was con-

ducted within the SIGMA project, the sensitivity analyses performed for differ-

ent sites showed that the epistemic uncertainties on Mmax have a notable impact

on seismic hazard and that a variety of defendable approaches can be employed

to assess the Mmax distribution (Fig.3.4). Although it is recognized that the CEUS

context and west European contexts in terms of seismotectonics and seismic his-

tory is very different, the adaptation of the EPRI (1994) Bayesian approach to the

French context is one of the recommended approaches because it limits the use

of expert judgement and its effect on the hazard estimates. Another approach to

imposing a constraint to the possible range of Mmax values is to compare the

deformation rates measured from geodetic data and those derived from geologi-

cal deformation along longer geological times or implied by the G-R model with

a certain range of Mmax for a specific zone. The objective of such comparisons is

to determine whether the deformation rate implied by a certain geological model

is consistent with the observed ones (geodetic and seismological). Such

approaches may provide, in the future, a constraint to the possible Mmax values,

particularly in low seismicity areas. Hence, more efforts should be paid to these

subjects in the future.

Scaling relationships can also be used to estimate an upper bound of Mmax con-

sidering the maximum dimensions of known faults in each seismic source.

The SSC logic tree represents the various interpretations that the analysts have con-

sidered as being credible in identifying and locating the seismic sources and charac-

terizing their seismic activity.

In the two regions of interest the seismic sources are composed by area or fault

sources and the logic trees typically consist of branches for alternative conceptual

models of seismic source boundaries, occurrence models, activity rate parameters,

style of deformation and maximum magnitudes. All of these parameters have an

influence on the hazard curves that are the final products of a PSHA model.

Assigning weights to the alternative SSC introduced at each node of the logic

tree is an imposed exercise to quantify the degree of confidence that the considered

alternative represents reality. As a general requirement, the sum of the weights at

each node should be one and there is a requirement that the values on the branches

of the tree be mutually exclusive and that at a node all the branches be collectively

exhaustive (Bommer and Scherbaum 2008). The sum to 1.0 indicates that the

branches represent the collectively exhaustive set of options. This requirement is

48 3 Seismic Source Characterization

description

(0.4) 0.04

Fea10

0.08

(0.4) 0.04

AS AB11

0.08

model-

(0.5)

based (0.33)

(0.2) ergodic 0.02

seismicity ITA13

non-ergodic 0.04

(0.67)

(0.6) 0.04

0.08

(0.5)

0.04

FS + BG GMPEs 0.08

RESULT 0.02

0.04

(0.4) 0.0533

0.1667

gridded

HAZGRID (new) GMPEs 0.0533

seismicity 0.1667

0.0267

0.0533

Fig. 3.7 Example of logic tree adopted for the PSHA conducted in the Po Plain (D4-94).

Conceptual models are considered early in the logic tree, then, more specific assessments are con-

sidered as sub branches, the sum at each node being 1.0.

not always easy to fulfil through lack of data or due to insufficient efforts to collect

and generate the appropriate data. Hence, it is sometimes difficult to be able to dem-

onstrate that the logic tree complies with this requirement.

In general, a logic tree is structured such that more general assessments occur as

the first branches of the tree (like conceptual models: area sources/fault sources/

smoothed seismicity) and more specific assessments are included later in the tree as

sub-branches of the main branches (see the example of Fig.3.7).

It was not the main objective of SIGMA to develop site-specific results at a site

(although in the Po Plain this was done), but rather to treat the uncertainties and

appreciate their impact on the hazard. In building the logic trees, the rationale and

criteria for identifying the first branches were a function of the data available to

conduct the analysis and of the objective of the analysis. The three mentioned con-

ceptual models (area sources, faults and gridded seismicity) compose the first

branches. Then the suite of branches includes all relevant parameters that character-

ize the activity of the identified sources given the conceptual model adopted and the

data at hand (maximum magnitude, variation of recurrence parameters). For this

reason, there is no generic logic tree but only specific logic trees that are consistent

with: (1) The objective of the analysis (regional map vs. site-specific assessment,

high annual probability of exceedance (AFE) vs. low AFE), (2) The level of efforts

to acquire the data and, (3) The complexity of the seismotectonic environment.

In the Italian case both area and fault sources were considered (D4-94), while in

the French model area sources were preferably used to model the spatial distribution

3.6 Logic-Tree Implications 49

of the earthquakes because the faults were not accurately known or because of lack

of data to characterize their activity. Fault sources were, however, introduced in the

Provence region in the final run (D4-170). In both cases, the first step was to develop

a set of models identifying the geometry of the sources. In fact, the area sources

were defined as a volume, i.e. in addition to the delineation of each area on a map,

the range of depths where the sources are located were specified. Although the dis-

tribution of the seismic sources in the volume obeys a probability distribution, epis-

temic uncertainties characterize the thickness of the seismogenic crust.

In the composite fault source model of the Po plain, where faults have a multi-

planar geometry and ruptures are distributed along the fault plane considering a

uniform or non-uniform distribution, area sources were included to account for

earthquakes that occur off of the faults (background seismicity which is considered

as diffuse seismicity). A similar approach was adopted in the Provence fault model.

3.6.2 E

fficient Tools fortheLogic Tree Conception

andWeights Assignment

An important lesson of the SIGMA project and a good recipe for the development

of a SSC logic tree with the objective to reduce uncertainties is to adopt a phased

approach based on the introduction of calculations at an earlier stage of the project.

Several tools were identified during the project to assist in identifying hazard-

significant issues and topics that need to be understood and resolved during the

PSHA study:

The development of a pilot model (at a very early stage);

Hazard disaggregation;

Sensitivity analyses; and

Testing of the PSHA results using observations.

3.6.2.1 P

ilot Model foranInteraction andInterface Management

BetweenComponents ofthePSHA

Any PSHA should be conceived in such a way as to develop an initial logic tree and

then to iterate during the progression of the project in order to improve the logic tree

(add branches, logic-tree trimming, weight branches, etc.), to focus on the relevant

parameters that control the hazard at the site and the influence of epistemic

uncertainties.

Each individual site belongs to a site-specific tectonic environment for which the

treatment of uncertainties may be complex. There is a need to capture the technical

issues at an earlier stage of any project; this would help to appreciate if all the sur-

veys, investigations and tasks are developed with the objective of collecting the

appropriate level of knowledge on the seismic sources and of identifying the

50 3 Seismic Source Characterization

a ctivities needed for improvement of the parameters that control the seismic hazard

at the site.

Within SIGMA such pilot models were introduced early (D4-29, D4-41) to iden-

tify the seismic sources and the parameters or components of the models that have

a significant impact on the hazard results, at specified return periods of interest and

at specific spectral periods of interest.

Such a pilot model should be preferably developed using the existing and avail-

able data (earthquake catalogues, published documentation, pre-existing models)

without waiting for the integration task and even if a full identification and charac-

terization is not available yet. Such a model is specifically helpful to identify, among

the different actions, the priorities and where to concentrate efforts (in acquiring

new data, in adopting a method rather than another and so forth) to reduce the uncer-

tainties and to anticipate the conception of the logic tree.

3.6.2.2 Disaggregation

In the same way, hazard disaggregation of the pilot model is a tool that should be

used not just at the end of the PSHA, but all along the development of the seismic

source model, again to offer quantitative indicators on the contribution of each indi-

vidual source to the total hazard.

the complexity of the PSHA approach. This is because the weights are often pro-

vided by experts, who assign a relative weight to each branch and are treated as a

probability in the calculations, which expresses the experts degree of belief in the

model or parameter value being appropriate.

One of the requirements is that the technical assessments that underlie the iden-

tification of the nodes of the trees, the alternative branches at a node, and the weights

assigned to each branch must be justified and documented to provide the necessary

material to other experts to make a review or a critical analysis of the PSHA

outputs.

The technical bases for the selection of branches included in the logic tree, the

assignment of weights to different models in the final distribution or the exclusion

of models and methods that are discarded from the general SSC model can be more

easily justified by conducting sensitivity analyses.

Within the SIGMA project and for both case studies, different sensitivity analy-

ses were conducted, some early in the project, others during its course, and an inte-

grated exercise was finally conducted to quantify the reduction of uncertainties at

the end of SIGMA.They constitute a tool to investigate the origins of uncertainties,

to understand their influence on the hazard results and to guide better the improve-

ment of the model in the course of the project. Because this feedback allows

3.6 Logic-Tree Implications 51

Fig. 3.8 Example of sensitivity analyses to the different components of the PSHA model: Tornado

diagrams at 475 years return period for three test sites in SE France showing the sensitivity of mean

hazard to Source Model, Earthquake Catalogue and GMPE at three spectral periods (PGA, 0.2s

and 1s) (D4-138).

m

(e.g. which one affects most the results), and evaluating the contribution of the

uncertainties in the input parameters to the total hazard uncertainties, they also pro-

vide justifications in the selection of the branches of the logic tree and in the assign-

ment of weights.

The sensitivity analyses were performed for three different sites in each area of

interest, characterized by different levels of seismicity and/or their location at

boundaries of seismic sources (areas or faults).

Different metrics can be used to measure the impact of the uncertainties, i.e.:

The distance or ratio between percentiles hazard curves (e.g., 595 or 1684%)

at specified return period and spectral period (D4-94 and D4-138);

The distance between mean hazard curves of two models (D4-138);

The variability in UHRS at specified return periods (D4-94); and

Tornado plots as shown in Fig.3.8, from D4-138.

A lesson from SIGMA is that the extent to which the uncertainties impact the

hazard estimates at targeted annual frequency of exceedance, given the tectonic

environment of the site, is site-specific. A number of the basic influencing factors

should be, however, systematically addressed, such as:

How the uncertainties due to the Mw homogenization of the catalogue (via mag-

nitude conversions or via exploitation of macroseismic data) affect the results;

How the geometry and boundaries of seismic sources affect the activity rates;

52 3 Seismic Source Characterization

Whether the methods in the determination of the G-R parameters lead or not to

substantial variability;

How uncertainty in the thickness of the seismogenic crust impacts the ground

motion; and

How the Mmax uncertainty and distribution of the Mmax values impact the hazard

curves.

Other factors are a function of the site location within the seismic source context

and/or the occurrence models adopted to characterize the seismicity distribution,

such as:

3D geometry of the fault sources;

Fault segmentation; and

Stationary versus non-stationary (time-dependent) occurrence models.

Site-specific assessments, developed for nuclear sites, require the development

of an up-to-date site-specific earth science database, in which the studies and inves-

tigations are conceived and designed to provide increasing level of specificity and

increasing effort in reducing the epistemic uncertainties, moving from the regional

scale to the site-specific location. Feedback from the sensitivity analyses provides

information and insights at the different stages of the PSHA.This is used to take

decisions in the development of the logic tree or in the optimization of new investi-

gations or approaches required to better control and reduce the uncertainties.

3.6.2.4 T

esting theBranches oftheLogic Tree Using Data

andObservations

One of the recurrent observations from the SIGMA reviewers was that the justifica-

tion of the weights adopted at each node of the logic tree was rarely explained

clearly by the hazard team. Documentation in this context is key in order for third

parties to understand the choices.

It was recognized that sensitivity analyses are appropriate tools to compare

among alternatives and to provide indicators for branch trimming; it was also

pointed out that they do not measure if the tested parameter or branches of the logic

tree represent a more reliable hazard estimate than another branch considered in the

model.

An interesting task of SIGMA was the application of a Bayesian approach to

update the PSHA logic tree based on observed exceedances of a certain acceleration

threshold (D4-139). This approach uses the comparison between the observed and

predicted number of exceedances and a Bayesian framework to modify the logic

tree weights. In practice, the a priori logic tree weights of the branches that are in

better agreement with the observations are increased while the others are lowered to

obtain a posterior distribution of the weights; the sum still being 1.0. Tests were

conducted on the hazard estimates to identify incompatibilities with observations

References 53

and to boost or invalidate components of the hazard model or parts of the hazard

model.

While still requiring some development, the approach is seen as a promising tool

to complement the definition of weights by expert judgment and it was recognized

by the SC that the consolidation of the method was worth pursuing.

Another important lesson of the SIGMA project stressed by the review process

concerns the requirement for including a verification process and quality assurance

at various steps of the PSHA model development.

While most of the PSHA studies carried out for conventional buildings are rarely

peer-reviewed, the QA requirements for nuclear applications become more strin-

gent in the post-Fukushima context and QA verification and validation procedures

are mandatory for any nuclear project.

The different hypotheses adopted at each node of the logic tree tend to make the

number of combinations extremely large and the identification of the components

that control the hazard at a site very complex. This is the reason why the develop-

ment of the SSC (and of course GMC) logic trees must be elaborated following

rules that are now commonly accepted in the nuclear community. Such a process

was introduced before the final run of the PSHA for the French area. It consisted in

preparing hazard input documents that describe the interfaces between the SSC

models elaborated by geologists and seismologists, and the parameters and models

introduced by the hazard calculation team into the PSHA software. This was an

iterative process where the SSC analysts and the hazard calculation specialists

closely interacted to verify that the hazard calculation model was as much as pos-

sible representative of the SSC models, and also that the models and ingredients

were implemented in the PSHA in a complete and unambiguous way. The hazard

input document for the French South-East quarter was validated by the scientific

committee before the hazard computations.

Finally, it is a crucial requirement that the computational tool selected be a docu-

mented, verified and validated software, but at the same time sufficiently flexible to

allow for the introduction of new techniques or methods that may be required during

the project. A discussion on the software is provided in Chap. 6.

References

Akinci A (2010) HAZGRIDX: earthquake forecasting model for ML 5.0 earthquakes in Italy

based on spatially smoothed seismicity. Ann Geophys 53(3):5161

Albarello D, DAmico V, Peruzza L (2013) D6.1 report on model validation procedures. DPC-

INGV- S2 project 20122013. https://sites.google.com/site/ingvdpc2012progettos2/deliver-

ables/d6

54 3 Seismic Source Characterization

choice of maximum earthquake magnitude for seismic hazard assessment in metropolitan

France insight from the Bayesian approach. 9ime Colloque Nat. AFPS, Marne-La-Valle

Bommer JJ, Scherbaum F (2008) The use and misuse of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard

analyses. Earthquake Spectra 24(4):9971009

Carbon D, Drouet S, Gomes C, Leon A, Martin Ch, Secanel R (2012) Initial probabilistic seismic

hazard model for Frances Southeast . SIGMA deliverable n D441

Denieul M (2014) Seismic moment magnitude and Crustal Wave Coda. EOST PhD thesis (Institut

de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg)

Denieul M, Sbe O, Cara M, Cansi Y (2015) Mw estimation from crustal coda-waves recorded on

analog seismograms. Bull Seismol Soc Am 105(2A):831849

EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) (1994) The earthquakes of stable continental regions

volume 5: seismicity database programs and maps, Report EPRI TR-102261-V5. Electric

Power Research Institute, Palo Alto

Faccioli E (1992) Selected aspects of the characterization of seismic site effects, including some

recent European contributions. In: Proceedings of international symposium on the effects of

surface geology on seismic motion (ESG 1992), vol I, pp 6596, March 2527, 1992, Odawara,

Japan

Faccioli E, Vanini M, Villani M, Galadini F (2012) Preliminary PSHAs at selected sites, based on

state of the art earthquake source models and attenuation relationships, considering both out-

cropping bedrock and soil conditions. SIGMA deliverable n D429

Faccioli E (2013) Recent evolution and challenges in the seismic hazard analysis of the Po Plain

region, Northern Italy. Bull Earthq Eng 11(1):533

Faccioli E, Paolucci R, Vanini M (2015) Evaluation of probabilistic site-specific seismic hazard

methods and associated uncertainties, with applications in the Po Plain, Northern Italy. Bull

Seismol Soc Am 105(5):27872807

Gardner JK, Knopoff L (1974) Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California, with after-

shocks removed, poissonian? Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(15):13631367

Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1956) Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena, 2nd edn.

Princeton University Press, NewYork, p310

Helmstetter A, Kagan YY, Jackson DD (2007) High-resolution time-independent grid-based fore-

cast for M #5 earthquakes in California. Seismol Res Lett 78:7886

International Atomic Energy Agency (2010) Seismic hazards in site evaluation for nuclear instal-

lations. In: Specific Safety Guide SSG-9. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna

Letort J, Vergoz J, Guilbert J, Cotton F, Sebe O, Cano Y (2014) Moderate earthquake teleseismic

depth estimations: new methods and use of the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty organiza-

tion network data. Bull Seism Soc Am 104(2):593607

Letort J, Guilbert J, Cotton F, Bondar I, Cano Y, Vergoz J(2015) A new, improved and fully auto-

matic method for teleseismic depth estimation of moderate earthquakes (4.5<M<5.5): applica-

tion to the Guerrero subduction zone (Mexico). Geophys JInt 201(3):18341848

Marsan D, Lenglin O (2008) Extending earthquakes reach through cascading. Science

319:10761079

Marsan D, Lenglin O (2010) A new estimation of the decay of aftershock density with distance to

the mainshock. JGeophys Res 115(B09302):116

Meletti C, Galadini F, Valensise G, Stucchi M, Basili R, Barba S, Vannucci G, Boschi E (2008) A

seismic source model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory. Tectonophysics

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SHARE (2013) Seismic hazard harmonization in Europe. http://share-eu.org

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models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates. Bull Seismol Soc Am 75:939964

Chapter 4

Rock Motion Characterization

As stated in Chap. 2, rock (as well as soil) ground motion characterization for PSHA

requires that both the median response spectral acceleration and its standard devia-

tion (aleatory variability) be estimated by appropriate algorithms, such as GMPEs

or stochastic models. In Sect. 2.5 of Chap. 2 the logic tree approach was introduced

for handling epistemic uncertainty, pointing out that the dynamic characteristics of

the earthquake source and wave propagation near the site are typical sources of

uncertainty in ground-motion prediction. Some implications for the logic tree treat-

ment of epistemic uncertainty of rock ground motion will be discussed at the end of

this chapter.

It is also recalled from Chap. 2 that the horizontal ground motion component is

described as the geometric mean of the two orthogonal horizontal components: the

aleatory variability of these components with respect to the geometric mean is

incorporated in the set of acceleration time histories eventually selected to represent

ground motion on rock. The vertical motion component can be estimated in differ-

ent ways, see Sect. 4.5.

Ground-motion models can be developed through empirical GMPEs, point-

source stochastic simulations, finite fault simulations, and the hybrid empirical

method, but since only the first two of these were addressed in SIGMA, the attention

here will be focused on them.

Empirical GMPEs have the advantage of being best fits of recorded data sets, often

global ones. However, although their number has increased rapidly in the last few

years, in some cases these published equations may not be well adapted to the

A. Pecker et al., An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Geotechnical,

Geological and Earthquake Engineering 42, DOI10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5_4

58 4 Rock Motion Characterization

Table 4.1 GMPEs for 0.05 damped response spectral ordinates selected for the final SIGMA

PSHA South-East quarter of France (Ameri 2015)

Region Mw Distance range Period Site Fault

GMPE (dataset) range (km) range (s) description mechanism

Ameri Europe- 3.07.6 RJB,EPI = 0200 PGA; 4 site Yes

(2014) middle East + 0.013 classes

(D2131) French and

Swiss data

Drouet and French data 38a REPI = 1250 0.013 Rock or No

Cotton (Stochastic hard rock

(2015) model)

Akkar et al. Europe- 4.07.6 RJB,EPI, HYP = 0200 PGA; Function of Yes

(2014a, b) middle East 0.014 VS30

Bindi etal. Europe- 4.07.6 RJB,HYP = 0300 PGA; Function of Yes

(2014) middle East 0.023 VS30

Boore etal. Global 3.58.5 RJB = 0400 PGA; Function of Yes

(2014) (mostly 0.0110 VS30

California)

Cauzzi Global 4.57.9 RRUP = 0150 PGA; Function of Yes

etal. (mostly 0.0110 VS30

(2015) Japanese)

a

This GMPE is developed from weak motions and extended to large magnitudes with numerical

simulations

magnitude and distance ranges of most interest for hazard analysis with, e.g., low

annual probabilities of exceedance. This can happen for low or moderate seismicity

regions, like much of France; for regions where hazard is dominated by specific

source and propagation path combinations, like in the sedimentary plains of

Northern Italy; or for hard-rock site conditions that may prevail in SCRs and moun-

tainous zones in ASCRs. To bypass at least in part these limitations, regionally-

oriented prediction equations were developed in SIGMA for:

(1) the French context, with special attention devoted to small magnitude earth-

quakes, see D292 and D2131;

(2) Northern Italy, with focus on the dominant combination of thrust fault sources

and the deep sedimentary basin that characterizes the Po Plain, see D253 and

D2133, and

(3) hard rock conditions in ASCRs (D3150).

In this Chapter items (1) and (3) will be discussed, among others. In connection

with (1), the GMPEs used in the SIGMA final PSHA of the South-East quarter of

France on exposed rock are shown in Table4.1, with the salient features associated

to each equation. Trellis plots of the spectra estimated by these equations for differ-

ent magnitudes and distances (see Fig.4.1, where the Joyner and Boore distance,

4.1Empirical Models andPoint Source Stochastic Models 59

Fig. 4.1 Median response spectra predicted by the GMPEs of Table4.1 for several M-RJB distance

scenarios for VS30 = 800 m.s1 and strike-slip fault. An equivalent rupture distance (Rrup) was calcu-

+ ( 0.3046 + ztor ) as proposed

2

lated for the Cauzzi etal. (2015) model following log Rrup = 2 RJB2

by Cauzzi etal. (2015) for Mw > 5.5, where ztor is the depth to the top of fault rupture. ztor = 4km

and =1km is used for Mw = 6 and Mw = 7, respectively. For Mw = 4 and 5, Rrup is taken equivalent

to the hypocentral distance assuming a point-source at 10km depth (From Ameri 2015)

RJB, is used) are instructive, as they display that the variability decreases from a

factor of 3 at small magnitudessmall distances to less than a factor of 2 at M 7.0 for

any distance. In the selection of the GMPEs of Table4.1 special consideration was

given to models that: (a) use French data in some sense, (b) were recently developed

for the pan-European region, (c) use a worldwide dataset (to better constrain ground

motions from large magnitude events), or (d) have a functional form well suited for

area source models.

Concerning the characterization of rock sites, Fig.4.2 shows the distribution of

VS30 (the time-averaged shear-wave velocity of the top 30 m) values available in the

dataset extracted from the RESORCE 2013 European database (see D2-91) that was

used to derive the Ameri 2015 (D2-131)), Akkar etal. (2014a, b), and Bindi etal.

(2014) GMPEs of Table4.1.

60 4 Rock Motion Characterization

Fig. 4.2(top) Distribution of the VS30 values associated to records in the updated (2013) European

database (see SIGMA D291), which is the basis of the GMPEs developed for the French context

in D2131. This corresponds to roughly 40% of the total records in the database. (bottom) Same

for the KiK_net stations on hard ground/rock used in D3-150: on the left, the number of surface

stations corresponding to the selected VS30 values and, on the right, the number of DH stations

belonging to the ranges of the VS values measured at the depth of the instrument, denoted as VShole

(from D3-150)

The recording sites with values VS30 800 m.s1, ascribable to the category of

rock sites (ground type A in the EC8 classification), are a small fraction of the total.

As a further example, the DBN2 dataset used to develop GMPEs for Northern Italy

(see D2-72) includes 95 sites in category A, with 610 records, but only at 4 sites

(with 32 records) were measured VS30 values available, while all other sites of the

same category have been classified according to a geological description, of admit-

tedly low quality (denoted as A*). Relatively small proportions of rock-site records

are found in practically all recent GMPEs datasets, including those used in the so-

called integrated exercise of SIGMA, described in D4-153; most are included in

Table4.1. As an example, representative for the four ASCR GMPEs applied in the

integrated exercise, the Cauzzi etal. (2015) model used a global database where

rock records with a measured VS30 are less than 5% of the total.1

Thus, the estimation of ground motions at surface rock sites from GMPEs is, as

a rule, more weakly constrained by data than at soil sites of various categories.

Moreover, the fraction of surface rock records in ASCR databases tends to vanish as

VS30 approaches the limit of 1500 m.s1, which the U.S. standards define as the lower

1

A reliable attribution to the rock site category requires measured VS30, as attributions based on

field survey or geological maps are likely to be inaccurate.

4.1Empirical Models andPoint Source Stochastic Models 61

threshold for hard rock. On the other hand, exposed bedrock formations in SCRs

often belong to the very hard rock site category, with VS30 > 2000 m.s1, and even

in those among such regions where monitoring of seismic activity is reasonably

good, like Eastern North America (ENA), sites with measured S-wave velocities are

scarce. For instance, for the Mw 5.4 2005 Riviere du Loup, Qubec earthquake, one

of the best recorded SCR events ever, S-wave velocities are not available for the

more than 20 stations that recorded the ground motion within 100km of the source

(Assatourians and Atkinson 2010).

To estimate ground motion at hard rock sites in ASCRs, one can follow the path

referred to in previous item (3), which exploits data recorded at depth. Some GMPEs

had been developed in earlier studies from such recordings, notably those of the

KiK-net, as the stations of this network feature both a surface and a down-hole

3-component accelerometer on the same vertical profile (e.g., Rodriguez-Marek

et al. 2011). The down-hole (DH) KiK-net recordings were jointly exploited in

SIGMA and in SINAPS@, see D3-150, leading to a significant enlargement of the

database for ground motions observed on rock, as illustrated in the bottom graphs of

Fig. 4.2. However, DH records do not represent incident motions (as they are

affected by interference of waves reflected at the free surface) and do not account

for the free-surface effect; hence, they require a correction to make them suitable for

SH applications. Laurendeau etal. (D3-150) corrected the KiK-net DH recordings

as indicated by Cadet et al. (2012a, b), and were thus able to extend the ground

motion estimates across the VS30 range shown in the bottom right graph of Fig.4.2,

as further discussed in Sect. 4.3. To remedy in part the deficiency of hard rock

records, other approaches have been devised, which are discussed in more detail in

Sect. 4.3.

In low-seismicity regions, like much of France, events capable of generating

significant ground motions over a sizable area (with Mw > 5) are rare and the need

arises to use data from low-magnitude events, down perhaps to 3.03.5 (see

Table4.1). This allows, in principle, a validation against the PSHA results at short

return periods (typically of the order of 30 years), comparable with the time inter-

vals for which some accelerometer stations have been in operation.

Since many published GMPEs have a lower threshold magnitude of 4.0 or 4.5,

attenuation models extending to lower magnitudes were developed in SIGMA-WP4,

as illustrated in D-92 and D-131, benefitting from the significant amount of small

magnitude French and Swiss earthquake data present in RESORCE 2013. To

account for observed correlations of the prediction residuals with the Brune stress

drop () of the generating events, a stress parameterdependent term was added in

the prediction equations, strongly affecting the high frequency portions of the spec-

tra for Mw 5.0, and constrained to vanish for Mw > 6.0. This term accounts for

regional differences in stress parameter and decreases the standard deviation of the

GMPE.Obviously, for application to different French regions average stress param-

eters (and their uncertainty) are needed, taking into account that available estimates

span across more than two orders of magnitude and that uncertainties at play are

typically quite large. Perhaps the effect of the stress parameter could be handled in

62 4 Rock Motion Characterization

the different regions have different dominant mechanisms.

In closing this section, it is noted that at sufficiently long structural periods the

response acceleration ordinates estimated on rock by physically sound GMPEs

should exhibit a T2 dependence, at least to some degree, so that when they are con-

verted to displacement response ordinates, constant values are obtained. The corner

period beyond which a roughly constant spectral displacement should be observed

strongly depends on magnitude. A number of GMPEs still in use do not comply

with this requirement.

The attenuation models derived from point source stochastic simulations are typi-

cally built in two steps, as was done in the SIGMA application to the French context

(see D2-71). First, synthetic acceleration waveforms are computed using a stochas-

tic model simulation tool, such as SMSIM (Boore 2003). Second, the synthetic data

are used to build a GMPE by regression analysis, assuming a functional form.

The point source stochastic model is the simplest numerical simulation tool

available that is consistent with seismological theory. The main input parameters

include earthquake magnitude, stress drop (), regional attenuation parameters

[chiefly geometrical spreading exponent (in r-) and quality factor Q], crustal

velocity and density profiles or a site transfer function, and the near-site high-

frequency attenuation factor . Region-specific models of stress drop and attenua-

tion are determined empirically from recordings of smaller earthquakes in the

regions of interest.

Alps, Pyrenees, and Rhine Graben tectonic provinces were thus assigned differ-

ent values in the simulations for the French context, where regional values of

increasing with magnitude were adopted for magnitudes 5.0, and a single constant

value (2.5, 5.0, and 10 MPa) for larger magnitudes. The regional geometrical

spreading parameters are all close to the unit value of body wave attenuation, and

quality factors range from about 300 (Alps) to about 800 (Pyrenees and Rhine

Graben). While it is common to have a term in GMPEs to account for the different

style-of-faulting types, in the France application the simulations did not include

such a term.

Two types of sites are considered: one corresponding to standard rock with

VS30 = 800 m.s1 and = 0.03 s, and the other to hard rock with VS30 = 2000 m.s1

and = 0.01 s. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predictions derived from

the point-source model, all the input parameters to the stochastic simulations for

France were considered as random variables with normal or log-normal distribu-

tions, and the uncertainty on such parameters was propagated to the synthetic

ground motions, allowing for a sensitivity analysis to be carried out to evaluate the

influence of the uncertainty on each input parameter to the total GMPE uncertainty.

4.2Model Selection andCriteria 63

The major contributors to the total uncertainty are the stress parameter model and

the site model (both site amplification and kappa), while the uncertainties on the

attenuation parameters have a second order influence, and the remaining ones are

negligible.

The GMPEs coefficients of the attenuation model derived from the stochastic

simulations for France are available for different distance metrics (Repi, Rhypo, RJB,

and Rrup). The point-source simulations work well for small earthquakes and at large

distances, where they are comparable to finite fault simulations, but for large earth-

quakes and close to the fault, some adjustments to the single distance used in the

point-source simulation were introduced in D2-71 to mimic near-source effects

such as the saturation at close distances.

In carrying out the study for France much effort went into the characterization of

the models for large earthquakes and large distances, although it is known that the

seismic hazard in France will be mostly coming from small to medium events at

distances between 25 to 50km. A test in a full PSHA of France is not currently

available.

Careful decisions are required in the selection of applicable GMPEs for PSHA stud-

ies, notably in low seismicity regions with few or no strong motion records avail-

able, and limited seismological data. A preliminary requirement is that of peer

review: attenuation equations that have not been published in a peer-reviewed jour-

nal should in principle be discarded, but flexibility is needed, e. g. to admit the use

of robust equations derived for specific projects or regions and published as a tech-

nical report. The screening of suitable GMPEs should satisfy different sets of crite-

ria; to simplify the criteria, these can be grouped in the following three types

(assuming that the selection will consider only updated models published in the last

few years):

Modelling criteria;

Tectonic consistency; and

Site-conditions consistency.

The requirements on the functional forms chosen for the GMPEs and on the tech-

niques used for regressing the datasets are extensively discussed in Cotton et al.

(2006) and Bommer etal. (2010). Based on the GMPE development work carried

out in SIGMA, attention will be focused here on the predictor variables used in the

64 4 Rock Motion Characterization

tor of the near-surface geological material, and the style of faulting.

For magnitude, the scale employed in the equation should be consistent with that

used to define earthquake activity rates in the seismic source model. Moment mag-

nitude, Mw, is a standard descriptor in current GMPEs: if magnitude conversion

relations such as ML Mw, MS Mw, or mb Mw are used, typically because Mw is not

available for smaller magnitude earthquakes (e. g. <~4.5), the variability associated

with these relationships should be propagated into the sigma value of the GMPE for

which the adjustment is made. An approach that would remove the excess variabil-

ity introduced by conversions is to use GMPEs that rely on datasets where no con-

versions are made, e.g. where ML (or mb) is retained for the records of the smaller

events (if available) and Mw for the larger ones, and proceed in the same way in the

definition of activity rates. The no-conversion strategy was adopted to develop

GMPEs for Northern Italy (in D2-72 and D2-133), where the resulting between-

event variability is larger (especially for T > 0.2 s) in the case with conversion.

Similar considerations apply for the different distance metrics: Repi, Rhypo, RJB,

and Rrup. The key here is to perform the PSHA with a hazard code capable of model-

ling extended seismic sources in such a way that each of the foregoing distance

measures can be computed and each equation used with its native distance measure.

In practice, it is important to recall that Repi can be assimilated to RJB and Rhypo to Rrup

for Mw < ~5.5. This was done in D2-72, while in the French application of D2-131

preference was given to Repi alone.

In most current GMPEs a descriptor of the near-surface geological materials is

also included, either as VS30 or as an EC8 site category. SIGMA-based empirical

GMPEs for France and Italy use the EC8 site categories, allowing the inclusion in

the dataset of a sufficient number of data points. Regarding the contribution to

uncertainty, using the EC8 site categories is equivalent to using a VS30 characteriza-

tion, see D2-92. The situation is different for the French stochastic model (D2-71),

which is applicable only to rock sites (both firm and hard).

The influence of the style-of-faulting (SOF) predictor, invariably introduced

through classes of fault mechanisms (normal, strike-slip, and reverse), is significant

only for vibration periods up to roughly 1 s; it is rather limited for strike-slip mecha-

nisms and can account for an increase (reverse w.r.t. strike slip) up to about 50% in

the predicted spectrum ordinates. Note that if the SOF is not used as a predictor in

a given GMPE, the prediction itself will not reflect an undifferentiated faulting

mechanism but the proportion of the different SOF types that are present in the sup-

porting event dataset.

As stated in Bommer etal. (2010) the first basis for exclusion of a model is that it

is from a tectonic region that is not relevant to the location of the site for which the

PSHA is being conducted, considering also that there is no strong evidence for

4.2Model Selection andCriteria 65

Fig. 4.3 Excerpt of the seismotectonic map for GMPE selection in the Euro-Mediterranean area,

developed by the SHARE project (http://diss.rm.ingv.it/share-edsf/SHARE_WP3.2) 1: SCR,

shield (a) and continental crust (b); 2: oceanic crust; 3: Active Shallow Crustal Regions:

compression-dominated areas (a) including thrust or reverse faulting, associated transcurrent fault-

ing (e.g. tear faults), and contractional structures in the upper plate of subduction zones (e.g. accre-

tionary wedges), extension-dominated areas (b) including associated transcurrent faulting, major

strike-slip faults and transforms (c), and mid oceanic ridges (d); 4: subduction zones with contours

at 50km depth interval of the dipping slab; 5: areas of deep-focus non-subduction earthquakes; 6:

active volcanoes and other thermal/magmatic features

areas, at least in the range of moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes. At play

here is the key distinction between ASCRs, SCRs and subduction zones which, in

the broad European context, translates into a map as shown in Fig.4.3, expressly

developed in the SHARE (2013) project as a basis for choosing GMPEs for hazard

analysis.2

GMPEs derived for SCRs and ASCRs differ in several respects, crucial among

which is that owing to the paucity of observations even at the global scale many

of those applicable in SCRs were derived for Central and Eastern North America

(CENA) from stochastic models either for point- or finite-fault sources, with limited

data from small and moderate earthquakes. Broadly speaking, response spectral

ordinates estimated by a SCR GMPE are larger and attenuation of their amplitude

with distance considerably slower (so that, for some of the models, the range of

applicability extends as far as 1000 km), which makes GMPEs for one type of

For continents other than Europe one can consult the maps in EPRI, Vol. 5.

2

66 4 Rock Motion Characterization

region not interchangeable with those for the other. Criteria that can be applied for

the different types of crustal region in Europe can be found in Delavaud etal. (2012),

although today the choice of the specific GMPEs is possibly worth updating, as it

has been acknowledged that in most cases a GMPE needs to have a host-to-target

adjustment, as it is not directly applicable to the study region. Since in most parts of

France (i.e. excluding the Alps, Pyrenees, and the Rhine Graben), as well as in most

of Spain and the British Isles, the continental crust is believed to be of the extended

type (i.e. with reduced thickness with respect to older continental regions), using a

mixture of GMPEs for ASCR and SCR would seem reasonable for these regions.

The coupling of tectonic regionalization with different rock conditions prevailing at

the surface is discussed in the following.

It is fairly clear that the choice of the soil profile category (or VS30) in a GMPE

should be consistent with that of the site of application. The need for this check of

consistency typically arises with respect to the identification of the rock category

present at the application site. In the simplest terms, the empirical models that

include the generic rock category with VS30 = 800 m.s1, like those developed in

SIGMA, should not be applied without correction to hard rock sites with VS30 >

1500 m.s1, see Fig. 4.2. The so called host-to-target corrections that may be

required to make the application possible are discussed in detail in the next section.

While geological field assessments can be useful for the classification of rock sites,

they should in general not replace in-situ wave speed measurements for a correct

determination of VS30.

In many stable regions, such as large parts of northern Europe, no strong motion

data are available and, hence, no specific GMPEs exist for these regions. Moreover,

hard rock sites occur frequently in mountainous areas of ASCRs. The associated

high VS30 values are not consistent with those of most rock sites where records are

available or with the rock definition used in Eurocode 8. Therefore, some adjust-

ments, or corrections, to ground-motion predictions are needed to account for the

different rock site conditions. Hence, either some adjustment to ground-motion pre-

dictions should be introduced to account for the different rock site properties, or

recourse to other instrumental observations must be sought. The extent of the adjust-

ments depends on the rock type, hardness and erosion of the in-situ formations. We

consider in the following two alternative approaches, both used (and the second

even developed) in SIGMA.The first approach consists of applying a standard type

of correction, based on the high-frequency attenuation parameter and VS30 and

4.3Corrections or Modifications ofPublished Models 67

quantified through numerical simulations, while the second one (which became

available only at the end of SIGMA) relies on recorded data, used as a basis for

direct ground motion estimations through GMPEs.

In the PEGASOS Refinement Project (Biro and Renault 2012) and the Thyspunt

Nuclear Siting Project (Rodriguez-Marek etal. 2014), empirically predicted motions

have been corrected by a theoretical adjustment factor depending only on the two

site parameters, and VS30; the same method has been used in the SIGMA Integrated

Exercise (case study of a site-specific probabilistic model), see D4-153. governs

the high-frequency decay of the ground acceleration Fourier amplitude spectrum for

frequencies higher than a specific frequency fe, in the form exp(f) (Anderson

and Hough 1984), assuming that the effective quality factor (i.e., the overall attenu-

ation) is frequency independent. To account for the observed dependence of on the

source-to-site distance, R, Anderson and Hough (1984) suggested the linear rela-

tion, in units of time:

= 0 + R R ( s ) (4.1)

Ktenidou etal. (2013) observe that the intercept 0 at zero distance corresponds

to the attenuation S-waves encounter when travelling vertically through the shallow

geology, and the slope of the trend (R) corresponds to the incremental attenuation

due to predominantly horizontal S-wave propagation through the crust, and report

estimates of 0 from rock site records in different regions from 0.02 to 0.04 s.

To interpret the features of Fourier amplitude spectra corrected through -scaling,

it is useful to derive a simple analytical expression of the correction. Let for this

purpose the amplification function at the surface of a rock site be expressed as:

where AR is the amplification factor for waves propagating through the velocity and

the density profile assumed to be representative for the site at hand, such as that of

Atkinson and Boore (2006, their Table4) with VS30 = 760 m.s1, coupled with =

0.03 s [average in the range indicated by Ktenidou etal. (2013)]. This profile fea-

tures VS = 3700 m.s1 at the average earthquake focal depth of 1015km. Likewise,

for a hard/very hard rock site, HR, one can write

where AHR is the corresponding amplification factor, for example that associated

with the very hard rock profile of Boore and Joyner (1997, their Tables 2 and 4)

which has a VS30 = 2780 m.s1. Coupled to this value is = 0.005 s, mean of a

68 4 Rock Motion Characterization

Fig. 4.4 Rock/very hard rock response spectral correction factor as a function of structural period,

from different sources discussed in text. The green curve, corresponding to Eq. (4.4), depicts a

Fourier amplitude ratio, to be read as a function of 1/f

uniform distribution between 0.002 s and 0.008 s in Atkinson and Boore (2006).

Dividing (4.2) by (4.3) the rock/hard rock correction factor for the Fourier ampli-

tude spectrum is obtained in the form

AR ( f ) ( R HR ) f

C R / HR ( f ) = e (4.4)

AHR ( f )

Taking for AR (f) and AHR (f) the foregoing amplification factors and for thevalues

just introduced, the green curve labelled as theoretical in Fig. 4.4 is obtained,

which tends to zero as T 0, i. e. f .

The red curve and associated variability band plotted in Fig.4.4 as a function of

the structural period T represent (generic rock)/(hard rock) correction factors for

response spectra, and were derived by Van Houtte etal. (2011), using a VS30- cor-

relation from Japanese Kik-Net data and the hybrid adjustment method of Campbell

(2003), assuming the host and target regions to be the same but with different rock

site conditions. The host region is the one for which a GMPE exists, and which can

be described by seismological parameters (stress drop, quality factor, , etc.). The

same set of parameters must be available for the target region, for which a GMPE is

being sought. Then using a simulation tool such as SMSIM, mentioned in Sect.

4.1.2, synthetic ground-motions from the seismological parameters can be com-

puted for the two regions and response spectra derived. The ratios between the spec-

tra of these synthetic predictions for given magnitudes and distances are used to

adjust the original GMPE to the target conditions.

4.3Corrections or Modifications ofPublished Models 69

To produce the smooth envelopes in Fig.4.4 Van Houtte etal. (2011) adopted

different magnitude-distance combinations and used for the host region the

Campbell (2003) GMPE and related ENA seismological parameters, i.e. 2000 <

VS30 < 2800 m.s1 and 0.002 0 0.012 s; the target generic rock site parameters

were VS30 = 800 m.s1 and 0.02 0.05 s. The theoretical correction curve in

Fig.4.4, although a ratio of amplification functions in the Fourier amplitude domain

and not a response spectral ratio,3 for T > 0.025 s appears to explain qualitatively the

salient features of the correction factor derived from host-to-target numerical simu-

lations. In essence, the simulation-based correction factor of Fig.4.4 tells us that at

high frequencies, a hard rock site should amplify more than a normal rock site due

to its lower attenuation. However, this indication is associated with large uncertain-

ties, which may have large effects on the resulting ground motions. A strong reason

is that observed transfer functions of stiff surface sites characterized by VS30 > 500

m.s1 (and even as high as 850 m.s1) exhibit amplification peaks, especially at high

frequencies, related to local effects that are not considered in the adjustment factor

computation (D3-150). The consequences of this are illustrated in the next

sub-section.

Figure 4.4 shows two additional curves, labelled Method 1 and Method 2 SSS,

borrowed from the SIGMA Integrated Exercise (D4153). These curves represent

ratios of the 10,000 year spectrum on generic rock (VS30 = 800 m.s1), estimated by

the single-station sigma (SSS) approach, with respect to the spectrum on very hard

rock at the same site (with VS30 = 3200 m.s1), by the two different methods. Both

curves, resulting from the combined use of four different GMPEs, fit for the most

part within the Van Houtte etal. bounds. Thus, if we believe the numerical simula-

tions, these bounds seem to encompass most of the spread caused by the epistemic

uncertainty in the spectrum adjustment between different representative rock sites.

However, VS profiles at real rock sites may depart significantly from those used in

the simulations so that the amplification factor ratio in (4.4) may tend to dominate

the kappa-scaling factor and to attain values significantly greater than unity (gener-

ated by amplification of rock with respect to hard rock) at high frequency.

Kappa-scaling of attenuation models from one rock type (host) to another (tar-

get) can be managed in a more site-specific way, as was done in the SIGMA

Integrated Exercise, using the two methods described in D2-130 (Bora method) and

in Al Atik et al. (2014), respectively. The first one takes a frontal approach and

works by developing GMPEs from a given record database directly in the Fourier

domain, applies the desired host-to-target correction in such domain, and then

converts the result into the response spectra domain via RVT.The method by Al

Atik, simpler to apply, differs basically in the first step, in that it converts host

response spectra into the Fourier amplitude spectrum domain via inverse RVT tools,

while the following two steps are conceptually similar to those of the Bora method.

The ratio of the initial (host) to the final, modified response spectrum represents the

scaling factor. In the SIGMA integrated exercise, the application of the Bora

3

The main difference being of course that for T 0 the response spectral ratio tends to the PGA

ratio, where T is the structural period.

70 4 Rock Motion Characterization

Table 4.2 Values of , in s, estimated for generic rock sites (VS30 = 800 m.s1) from the indicated

GMPEs: AB11 = Atkinson and Boore (2011), ZEA06 = Zhao etal. (2006), CEA14 = Cauzzi etal.

(2015), AM14 = Ameri (2014) in D2-131

AB11 ZEA06 CEA14 AM14

0.0400.044 0.0510.054 0.0250.026 0.035

method has been partial, because it could be correctly used only with the GMPEs

developed from the RESORCE strong motion database, while databases underlying

the other GMPEs where not directly available.

The so-called adjustment method 2, by Al Atik etal. (2014) does not require

the selection of a number of the parameters involved in method 1, that are not con-

strained by data, and is easier to apply. An asset of the method is that it does not

require seismological models for the stochastic parameters (stress drop, whole-path

attenuation, etc.) of the host and target regions; the ground motion duration is a criti-

cally influent parameter in applying the RVT.The response spectra used as a point

of departure for the adjustment procedure are generated with the selected GMPEs

as scenarios at representative magnitudes, distances, and ground motion durations4;

it is, therefore, important that the host values estimated from such scenarios be rea-

sonably stable, in order for the kappa-scaling to be meaningful. Instability in the host

estimates may point to metadata of insufficient quality in the dataset underlying the

selected GMPE. Table 4.2 shows the host values estimated by the first steps of

Method 2 from a few GMPEs, with scenario magnitudes 5 and 6 and Repi 10 and

20km. The spread of values in the table is rather large; part of it may depend on

how the rock site attribution is handled by the GMPE, for example AB11 and

CEA14 directly use the assigned VS30 value, while ZEA06 and AM14 use differently

defined site classes. Moreover, the underlying datasets may reflect different domi-

nant features of rock formations.

However, since average 0 values estimated for normal rock sites by different

researchers vary between 0.02 s and 0.04 s (Ktenidou etal. 2013, their Figure14),

and since the effect of R in (4.1) is probably negligible within source-to-site dis-

tances of few tens of km (Ktenidou etal. 2013), widely used GMPEs like AB11 and

ZEA seem to reflect near-site attenuation effects that are actually outside the

expected rock site range, while a model like CEA14 sits near the middle of that

range. These differences should also be considered vis--vis their logic tree

implications.

4

The inverse of the corner frequency can be taken as duration at short source distances (<10 km),

while for larger distances a path duration equal to 0.05 (epicentral distance), in s, can be added,

see Al Atik etal. (2014).

4.3Corrections or Modifications ofPublished Models 71

data, have produced tools for approaching the estimation of GM at sites with VS30 >

1500 m.s1 in a different way, i.e. by extending the available datasets of surface

recorded data with recordings at depth obtained in vertical arrays. Specifically, they

derived empirical GMPEs from the two separate KiK-net data subsets depicted in

the two bottom graphs of Fig.4.2 with respect to their Vs distribution: at the left is

shown the distribution of the surface records, for which 500 m.s1 < VS30 < 1500

m.s1. The downhole (DH) sites, corresponding to the bottom right graph in Fig.4.2,

are characterized by their velocity at depth, denoted as VS hole, which allows expand-

ing the velocity distribution to more than 3000 m.s1. The distribution median of

velocities is around 650m s1 at the surface and around 1900m s1 at depth. All the

records were generated by shallow crustal events in Japan with a focal depth less

than 25 km, excluding offshore earthquakes.

Laurendeau etal. (D3-150) developed, among other things, two separate GMPEs

of simple analytical form for the two previous data subsets, with indicative applica-

bility ranges 4.5 Mw < 7.0 and 5km Rrup 200km. The DH response spectra of

the records effectively used in the regression, 1040in number, were subjected to the

correction devised by Cadet etal. (2012a, b) to account for the free surface effect,

and to remove the effect of destructive interference between upward- and downward

propagating waves. This manifests itself at the destructive frequency fdest = VS/4H

where H is the downhole sensor depth and VS the mean shear wave velocity of the

upper layers, and gives rise to a notable peak, usually visible both in the Fourier and

the response spectra surface/DH ratio. The reliability of the spectra corrected in this

way was carefully checked by different criteria, and it was assumed that wave prop-

agation at depth under the recordings sites is of a predominant 1D nature. For the

regression of the natural surface records the same dataset was selected.

One can thus use the Laurendeau etal. (D3-150) GMPEs to estimate for different

magnitude-distance scenarios the mean response spectra (and associated sigma) for

the representative (hard rock) host value VS30 = 2400 ms1 and for the target value

(rock) of 800 m.s1, associated with the envelope in Fig. 4.4. Two pairs of such

spectra are illustrated for two magnitude-distance scenarios in Fig.4.5.

The spectra of Fig.4.5 highlight the amplifying response of surface rock sites

with respect to hard rock sites in the KiK-net throughout the 0.03 to 2.0 s period

range, with peak amplification at around 0.08 s. This is at variance with the correc-

tion factor in Fig.4.4, which shows strong amplification of hard rock with respect

to rock sites at very short period and moderate de-amplification at longer periods.

The discrepancy is likely caused by the near-surface features of the VS profiles at

real rock sites in the KiK-net, typically exhibiting a low velocity layer of weathered

rock, with VS ~ 500 m.s1 in the upper 15m or so, but still compatible with a VS30 of

the order of 1000 m.s1 or more, as shown in Fig.4.6.

72 4 Rock Motion Characterization

10 10

1 1

SA(T)

SA(T)

0.1 0.1

0.001 0.001

0.01 0.1 1 0.01 0.1 1

T (s) T (s)

Fig. 4.5 Acceleration response spectra on exposed Rock sites (VS30 800 m.s1, solid red curves)

and Hard Rock sites (VS30 2400 m.s1, solid green curves) for the indicated magnitude rupture

distance (Rrup) combinations, calculated by the GMPEs of Laurendeau etal. (D3-150). These cor-

respond to regressions of the natural surface (rock) record set and of the corrected downhole (hard

rock) record set, having the S wave velocity distributions shown in the bottom graphs of Fig.4.2,

respectively. Dashed curves represent the mean 1 spectral levels

Thus, amplification effects at rock sites in the KiK-net seem to dominate over the

influence of . Laurendeau etal. (D3-150) found a mean DH 0 = 0.011 s 0.007 s,

but argue that, based on the similarity of mean spectral ratios obtained from empiri-

cal, generalized inversion and theoretical (1D) approaches at individual sites, the

correction associated with 1D propagation suffices to capture the whole station

specificity at the KiK-net vertical array scale (at most few hundreds of m from the

surface) in the frequency range 0.5 to about 12 Hz (or perhaps 15 Hz), without

requiring a 0 correction. This indication cannot yet be extrapolated to higher fre-

quencies, because of variability of the scaling of the QS quality factor with fre-

quency, which remains unresolved.

The lesson to be drawn from the comparison of the two approaches just pre-

sented is rather problematic: relying only on simulation-based, smooth envelopes of

the type shown in Fig. 4.4 to perform host-to-target ground motion adjustments

between different classes of rock sites may not be advisable, in view of the evidence

shown in Fig. 4.6. In ASCRs, at target rock sites with VS30 values significantly

exceeding those of EC 8 ground category A, direct spectrum predictions should be

independently derived, e.g. with the Laurendeau etal. (D3-150) GMPEs and, at the

same time, adjustments factors should be obtained from 1D propagation analyses

with realistic, site-specific VS profiles.

In closing this overview, one should not forget that a number of parameters, such

as stress drop, strong motion duration, or Q, as part of the initial dataset, are usually

implicitly built in into an attenuation equation and there is no straightforward way

to correct them to make the equation more site-specific. Thus, users may have to

decide whether to adapt an existing GMPE or to develop a completely new one.

4.4Standard Deviation ofModel Predictions; Truncation 73

Vs (m/s)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

0

10

20

30

40

z (m)

50

60

70

80

90

100

Fig. 4.6 Illustration of the different shallow-depth features of real vs. smooth shear wave velocity

profiles at rock sites. Shown are: average of 9 KiK-net Vs profiles, with VS30 = 1290 m.s1 (red

curve); smooth profiles derived by Cotton etal. (2006) from the Boore and Joyner (1997) generic

rock profiles, for VS30 = 1200 m.s1 (green curve) and 1500 m.s1 (blue curve); average of 5 profiles

(from cross-hole measurements) at Italian rock sites (Faccioli 1992), merged with the Cotton 1500

profile at 17m depth (black curve)

PSHA studies have traditionally been using the attenuation equations in an ergodic

fashion, i. e. associating to the median log predictions of the ground motion param-

eters (log Y) their standard deviation, logY, derived from datasets where many differ-

ent earthquakes and different sites are present. When applied to a single site, the

ergodic assumption implies that the variability across different sites is interchange-

able with that resulting from many different events, which may lead to overestimat-

ing logY.

Residual analyses of the spectral accelerations predicted by GMPEs, applied to

extensive regional datasets, have actually shown that when one considers individual

sites with recorded data and the associated (non-ergodic) statistical measures of

variability, the range of the key uncertainties at play may diminish with respect to

the ergodic case.

For ease of reference, Table4.3 summarizes terms and notation pertinent to this

topic, starting from the total residual Rij, i.e. the difference between the ground

motion parameter observed in earthquake i at station j and the corresponding value

predicted by a GMPE.While for detailed definitions of the meaning of the different

terms the reader is referred to Rodrguez-Marek etal. (2011) and Rodrguez-Marek

etal. (2013), due attention should be paid to the site term S2S, which is one of

thetwo components of the within event residual Wij. This term, in the words of

74 4 Rock Motion Characterization

Table 4.3 Components of total residuals of GMPE predictions and of their and standard deviations

Residual Standard deviation

components Notationa components Notation

Total residual Rij = Bi + Wij Total standard

deviation = 2 +2

Between-event Bi Between-event

residual standard deviation

Within-event Wij Within-event

residual standard deviation

Site term S2Sj Site-to-site s2s

variability

Event and site W0,ij = Wij S2S Event corrected ss

corrected single- station

residuals standard deviation

Event corrected ss,s

single-station

standard deviation at

individual site

Total single-station

standard deviation SS = 2 + SS2

Total single-station

standard deviation at SS,S = 2 + SS2 ,S

individual site

After Rodriguez-Marek etal. (2013)

a

Indices i and j denote earthquake and site, respectively

AlAtik etal. (2010) represents the systematic deviation of the observed amplifica-

tion at this site from the median amplification predicted by the model using simple

site classification such as the average shear-wave velocity in the uppermost 30m at

the site, VS30.

The term W0,ij, on the other hand, describes the record-to-record variability of

the response at site j for earthquake i. The standard deviation, ss, of the residuals

W0,ij associated with a given dataset, is commonly referred to as single-station

sigma; it displays limited variation with respect to magnitude and distance across

widely different regional datasets and tectonic environments (Chen and Faccioli

2013; Rodrguez-Marek etal. 2013). ss is generally smaller than the ergodic within-

event component of the sigma of the prediction of a GMPE based on the same

dataset. On the other hand, the standard deviation of the between-event residuals

is significantly source-and-path-dependent; it is less easily constrained, but it can to

some extent be assimilated to the between-event variability of a regionally based

GMPE (if it exists).

In a (partially) non-ergodic sigma approach the aleatory variability and the epis-

temic uncertainty are separated, by assuming that the site term can be independently

calculated (through site response analysis and -scaling, if needed), and by associat-

ing an epistemic uncertainty S2S to it via either logic tree (Rodrguez-Marek etal.

2014), or engineering judgment (as in Faccioli etal. 2015). Rodrguez-Marek etal.

(2014) termed the resulting approach as semi-ergodic and stipulated the following

key requirements for its application in PSHA: (1) the median S2S should be

4.4Standard Deviation ofModel Predictions; Truncation 75

properly estimated, and both (2) the epistemic uncertainty S2S and (3) the epistemic

uncertainty in the single-station sigma ss should be taken into account. If, due to

lack of recorded data, the site term is independently assessed and S2S is explicitly

taken into account, the two remaining variability measures ss and can be com-

bined into a (total) single-site sigma ss, as shown in the last column of Table4.3.

Insight on variability of ground motion at rock sites, applicable in single-station

sigma approaches, was gained in SIGMA through the analyses carried out in the Po

Plain, Northern Italy, and (on a more limited scale5) at the Euroseistest site in

Greece. For the Po Plain, specific empirical attenuation models were developed,

benefitting from the vast increase of data generated by the damaging Emilia earth-

quake sequence of May and June 2012.

Figure 4.7 displays a map of the central Po Plain, containing the area most

affected by the 2012 earthquakes (and by the smaller, Mw 5.5, 1996 Reggio earth-

quake), with the accelerometer stations, subdivided into (deep) soil and rock catego-

ries. These include many of those used for developing the Emilia-specific GMPEs,

used in the PSHA for Po Plain sites discussed in D4-94. For geological reasons,

there are no rock stations at distances <50 km from the epicentres of the 2012

events, which were generated by thrust-fault ruptures.

As an example for possible PSHA applications, illustrated here are the compari-

sons of Fig.4.8, derived from D4-94, and Faccioli etal. (2015). The graph on the

left of this figure shows that the regional single-station sigma on rock is nearly

coincident with that of the Rodriguez-Marek etal. (2013) constant model, derived

from datasets of different regions. In the graph on the right, one can note that the

mean total single-station sigma (ss) on rock is significantly smaller than the sigma

of the regional GMPE used to compute the residuals (denoted as ITA13in Fig.4.8).

The regional ss and ss shown in Fig.4.7, with their estimated variability, were

derived from the records of 21 accelerometer stations on category A sites, identified

by solid orange circles in Fig.4.7, lying within 120km of the 2012 epicentral area

and with at least 5 records. Since for all of these sites the category A attribution does

not rely on in-situ velocity measurements, it is indispensable that the associated

uncertainty (i.e., the sigma of the sigma) be taken into account in PSHA studies.

The sigmas in Fig. 4.8 quantify the ground motion prediction uncertainty on

exposed bedrock in an area where actual bedrock lies under a sedimentary cover

that is from 100m to some thousands of metres deep and, hence, hazard assessment

at surface sites requires a second step of site response analysis. The variability

ranges shown in Fig.4.7 reflect the predominance of the source-to-site paths dic-

tated by the 2012 events,6 but they sample the contribution of the sources that con-

trol the hazard in the Emilia sector of the Po Plain. Hence, they are believed to be

5

Because only two borehole stations on rock are present in the Euroseistest array.

6

Updated evaluations, benefitting from recent (20132015) recordings of N Apennines earth-

quakes with ML 4 (posterior to the SIGMA analyses) have substantially lessened the single-path

dependence of earlier data and exhibit substantial stability in the S2S and ss,s values shown

herein (presentation by Lanzano etal. at SIGMA final Symposium, November 2015).

76 4 Rock Motion Characterization

Fig. 4.7 DEM of Po Plain portion with accelerometer stations on soft soil and ground type

A.Depth contours are for the base of early Pliocene (M-P1) from Bigi etal. (1992). Rupture area

projections of Reggio 1996 and two Emilia 2012 main shocks are portrayed as red rectangles (from

Faccioli etal. 2015)

indicative of the extent at which uncertainty in strong ground motion prediction can

be reduced by good regional data (Fig.4.8).

A different facet of the ground-motion variability on rock sites is illustrated by

the behaviour of the regional site terms, shown in Fig.4.9; while their mean value

is noticeably close to zero, as it should be, there is an overall tendency for the factors

of the sites to the north (MLC, MTRZ) to exhibit predominantly positive site terms,

and the opposite for sites to the south (ZCCA, BSZ) lying in the Apennines. This

reflects the predominant influence of the 2012 events (but see footnote 6), which

generated stronger shaking to the north of the sources, probably as a result of

stronger propagation in the Po Plain sedimentary basin, see Fig.4.7. The main indi-

cation here is the level of the site-to-site variability, S2S, somewhat on the high side.

Based on the knowledge that the observation residuals tend to be log-normally dis-

tributed, the error () affecting the median logarithmic prediction of a ground motion

parameter obtained through a GMPE is assumed to be a normally-distributed ran-

dom variable with standard deviation logY. The error term is integrated out,

together with the magnitude and the distance terms, in applying the total probability

theorem by which the hazard calculations are carried out, see Fig. 2.1c). The

4.4Standard Deviation ofModel Predictions; Truncation 77

Ground type A sites r<120km (nrec>5) Ground type A sites (r=120km, nrec>5)

0.5

mean +\-1 std log10 ITA13

median 0.5

mean

0.4

0.3

mean,u,l

0.3

ss

ss

0.2

0.2

0.1 0.1

0 0

0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4

T (s) T (s)

Fig. 4.8(left) Mean 1 std. dev. range, in decimal log scale, of regional single-station (event cor-

rected) sigma (ss) for rock sites, based on the 120km Po Plain (see Fig.4.4) dataset restricted to

sites with a minimum of 5 records, compared with Rodriguez-Marek etal. (2013) constant model

(thick dotted line). (right) Total single-site sigma range, labelled as ssmean u,l, for the same rock site

dataset, compared with the ergodic standard deviation of the ITA13 GMPE (heavy line with sym-

bols), the attenuation model developed in D2-72 (with variability analysed in D2-133) and used for

all the residual computations

for the 21 stations on rock 1

with at least 5 records and ZCCA

RNC

lying within 120km BSZ

distance from the MTRZ

epicentral area of the 2012 0.5 MLC

TGG

Emilia, N Italy, earthquake mean +/-1st.dev.

S2S

location of most of these

stations is shown in

Fig.4.7

-0.5

-1

0 1 2 3 4

T (s)

question has often been posed whether a truncation (sigma truncation, generally

two sided) should be introduced in integrating over the -distribution in the hazard

integral. If a sigma truncation is introduced, one must also specify a truncation level

in units of sigma, e. g. a 3 truncation.7 In the design of nuclear installations, the

preference seems to be for no Sigma Truncation; according to the US NRC 1.208

(2007) Care should be taken in choosing a value (of the number of standard devia-

tions defining the truncation level) large enough such that natural aleatory variabil-

7

Note that, in the US NRC RG 1.208, the number of standard deviations chosen for the sigma

truncation level is denoted as epsilon.

78 4 Rock Motion Characterization

ity in ground motions is adequately addressed. A study conducted by EPRI and the

U.S.Department of Energy (DOE) () found no technical basis for truncating the

ground motion distribution at a specified number of standard deviations () below

that implied by the strength of the geologic materials. Considering the shear

strength of intact rock materials, it seems unlikely that a limit to ground motions

that can be transmitted to the ground surface during an earthquake may result from

this strength limit.

In case truncation is opted for, there seems to be an understanding that it should

not be at less than 3 level, as in the case of PSHA for the South-East quarter of

France (see D4-170). Considering that logY values for response spectrum values are

typically between 0.3 and 0.4 for most current GMPEs, the +3 truncation level

corresponds to spectral ordinates increased or decreased from 6.0 to 7.5 times w.r.t.

the median. The argument should also be considered that there may not be enough

available observations residuals beyond the 3 level to validate the normal distribu-

tion assumption.

Presumably because of the limited role of the vertical seismic action in conventional

earthquake resistant design, only a few of the recent GMPEs include independently

determined coefficients also for the vertical ground motion parameters (e.g. Cauzzi

and Faccioli 2008, Bindi et al. 2011). These indicate that the scaling of vertical

motion measures with respect to the main predictor parameters (magnitude and dis-

tance) is similar to that observed for horizontal motions, and that the standard devia-

tion of the predictions is also similar.

Among recently published equations that include only coefficients for the pre-

diction of horizontal spectral ordinates are those developed in SIGMA for France

(D2-131) and for Northern Italy (D2-53 and D2-133), as well as those derived from

the RESORCE database. In such cases, to estimate the vertical response spectrum

one can either use a simplified envelope for the vertical/horizontal (V/H) response

spectral ratio, or rely on independent GMPEs for the V/H ratio. An example of the

first approach is found in Eurocode 8 (Part 1), in which a value is recommended for

the V/H peak acceleration ratio (depending on magnitude) and different spectral

shape parameters are assumed for the vertical spectrum with respect to the horizon-

tal one.

The simplified envelopes rest on the empirical observation that at very short

periods the vertical and horizontal spectra have comparable amplitudes, while at

intermediate and long periods the level of the vertical spectrum tends to be a nearly

constant fraction of the horizontal one.8 In the intermediate period range a linearly

8

In this respect, it should be mentioned that the often used 2/3 factor for the V/H ratio may under-

estimate the vertical ground motion, according to recent measurements and evaluations (see e.g.

Edwards etal. 2011; Poggi etal. 2012; Nagashima etal. 2014).

4.6Logic Tree Implications 79

decreasing transition can be assumed. Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008) proposed for rock

sites an example of simplified envelope of this kind for the ratio in question, based

on independent prediction equations for the vertical and the horizontal spectrum. In

the simplified envelope approach the standard deviation of the vertical spectrum

estimation can be assumed to be the same as for the horizontal spectrum because the

epistemic uncertainty will already be captured to a large degree in the horizontal

motion.

In the more sophisticated approach relying on the use of independent GMPEs for

the V/H ratio, such as proposed by Bommer et al. (2011) and Glerce and

Abrahamson (2011), the epistemic uncertainty in the prediction of the V/H ratios

should also be addressed (e. g. considering more than one model for each GMPE

branch in the LT) since the total standard deviation of the log(V/H) prediction is

non-negligible (about 0.2). Nevertheless, the interface needs to consider the poten-

tial effect of double counting uncertainties and, thus, the standard deviation should

be partitioned transparently.

In addition to the choice of GMPEs, logic tree options of specific relevance for rock

motion characterization concern mainly the treatment of uncertainties in:

1. the implementation of the single-station sigma approach in two-step (hybrid)

hazard assessment, in which the first step defines a bedrock spectrum and the

second one deals with seismic site response analysis; and

2. the adjustments that may be needed among rock sites of different classes.

Concerning item 1, epistemic uncertainty should be considered for both the

median single-site sigma model and for the associated standard deviation.

Uncertainty is controlled by the within-event (ss), and the between-event () stan-

dard deviations of Table4.3. As already pointed out, ss displays limited variability

in different crustal regions (typically from about 0.20 to 0.25 in log10 scale, see

Fig.4.8), while for the between-event standard deviation components of regional

GMPEs could be used, such as given in D2-131 for France and in D2-133 for

Northern Italy. The treatment of uncertainties via logic tree in the single-station

sigma approach is discussed in detail in Rodriguez-Marek etal. (2014) and Faccioli

etal. (2015).

For item 2, the existing approaches lead to quite different results, and it seems

advisable to consider both the data-based adjustment of Sect. 4.3.2 (applicable to

ASCRs only and for frequencies 1215 Hz) and the simulation-based VS30- cor-

rection of Sect. 4.3.1. In applying the former, the similarity between the site-specific

VS profiles for the study and those of KiK-net should be considered for guidance

(see e. g. Fig.4.6), with their variability. The problem with the VS30- host-to-target

correction, as currently applied, derives in essence from the lack of supporting data:

the smooth velocity profiles associated to sites qualitatively described as generic,

80 4 Rock Motion Characterization

rock with respect to hard rock, and to overemphasizing the influence of the -scaling,

for reasons that are still in part unclear.

Salient issues in the characterization of ground motion on rock have been singled

out and discussed in this section. The following points are a summary of the most

important among them:

Estimation of ground motion at rock sites through empirical models is affected

by higher uncertainty than at soil sites, because accelerometer stations on rock

with a measured velocity profile are few, and erroneous site class attribution from

geological map inspection or field surveys is not infrequent.

In low or moderate seismicity regions, like much of France, the absence of

recorded data has led to developing rock motion estimation models from numeri-

cal simulation results, using point or finite-fault sources; such models require the

specification of source (e. g. stress drop) and attenuation (e. g. quality factor),

parameters typically affected by large epistemic uncertainty and which are

regionally dependent.

GMPEs adopted for hazard assessment on rock must be compatible with the

seismo-tectonic setting, i.e. they should, as a minimum, respect distinctions

between ASCRs with seismic activity present in the uppermost 2030 km, sub-

duction zones, and SCRs with a thick crust (up to 5060 km) and seismic activity

throughout.

The magnitude scale employed in the attenuation models should be consistent

with that used to derive earthquake activity rates in the seismic source model; if

smaller magnitude (e.g. <~4.5) earthquakes are used, for which Mw is not avail-

able, and magnitude conversion relationships are introduced, the variability asso-

ciated with these relationships should be propagated into the sigma value of the

GMPE for which the adjustment is made (for a discussion on the influence of

magnitude conversions in PSHA, see Chap. 3 of D4-94). It was shown in SIGMA

that GMPEs with lower inter-event variability can be obtained by avoiding mag-

nitude conversions (e.g. of ML into Mw) in the reference dataset.

Adjustments of GM estimations among different classes of rock sites, e.g. among

sites of EC 8 class A and hard rock sites (with VS30 > 1500 m.s1) are still a par-

tially unresolved issue, and two different approaches leading to notably different

results have been presented. Current VS30 corrections seem to overemphasize

the influence of and lead to hard rock spectra with high frequency peaks that

are not supported by the observational evidence of the KiK-net records on hard

rock (appropriately corrected for DH effects), at least up to about 15Hz.

The single-site sigma, or SSS, approach was extensively exploited in SIGMA,

and crucially important lessons were learned from its application, especially in

References 81

the Po Plain region where site-specific data are abundant. In this approach, the

influence of the site-to-site variability (S2S term) that affects the median ground

motion estimation is as important as that of the single-site sigma (ss,s). In par-

ticular, the site term can strongly vary from site to site even in geologically

homogeneous zones and it can lead to local highs/lows in the predicted spectra.

The application of SSS in zones without data should be supported by adequate

2D or 3D physically-based simulations, to constrain the relevant parameters up

to frequencies of a few Hz.

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Chapter 5

Site Response Characterization

It is well recognized that the seismic response of a site is strongly dependent on the

local geological and geotechnical features of the ground profile. Several approaches

are available to include site response effects in the hazard assessment. They are

detailed in the following paragraphs but all of them require more or less in-depth

knowledge of the geotechnical characteristics. Such knowledge can only be acquired

through site investigations. Therefore, a considerable amount of efforts has been

devoted in SIGMA to investigating the reliability of several site investigation tech-

niques, whose level of complexity depends on the choice of the site effect evaluation

method; characterization is also mandatory to get the minimum information to

choose the method itself.

In seismic site response analysis, a key role is played by the shear-wave velocity

model of the site since shear-wave propagation controls the ground-motion amplifi-

cation. Several building codes, Eurocode 8 among them, require the definition of the

VS30, defined as the average velocity in the topmost 30 m, for the definition of soil

classes. The use of GMPEs also often requires the VS30 parameter, and numerical

methods rely on 1D, 2D or 3D spatial distributions of the shear-wave velocity.

Another parameter that proves to be useful in the determination of the site amplifi-

cation is the natural frequency of the soil deposit, f0. Such a parameter can be deter-

mined from the H/V ratio. The shear-wave velocity profile can be retrieved either

with invasive tests, such as crosshole (CH), down-hole (DH) or Suspension Logging

tests (PSSL), or non-invasive methods, such as spectral analysis of surface waves

(MASW).

A. Pecker et al., An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Geotechnical,

Geological and Earthquake Engineering 42, DOI10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5_5

86 5 Site Response Characterization

Regardless of the method used for the evaluation of the site effect, measurement of

the profiles natural frequency is highly recommended. It can easily be obtained

with Ambient Vibration H/V Measurements (AVM). This method consists in mea-

suring the ambient noise in continuous mode with velocity meters (not accelerom-

eters) and then computing the ratio between the horizontal and vertical Fourier

amplitude spectra (Nakamura 1989). Guidelines were produced by the SESAME

research programme (SESAME 2004) to implement this technique, which is now

reliable and robust. H/V measurements can provide the fundamental frequency of

the studied site (but not the associated response amplitude) but can also be used to

assess the depth to bedrock and its possible lateral variation when the technique is

implemented along profiles. However, in this case, care should be taken when inter-

preting along the edge of basins, where the bedrock is significantly sloping, because

1-D geometry is assumed in the interpretation of measurements.

5.1.2 D

etermination oftheShear-Wave Velocity Profile

andSite Class

Invasive methods are considered more reliable than non-invasive ones because they

are based on the interpretation of local measurements of shear-wave travel times

and provide good resolution. However, these methods require drilling of at least one

borehole, making them quite expensive. Non-invasive techniques provide cost effi-

cient alternatives. In the last decades the methods based on the analysis of surface

wave propagation are getting more and more recognition (Foti etal. 2014). These

methods can be implemented with a low budget without impacting the site. However,

they need processing and inversion of the experimental data, which should be car-

ried out carefully. The surface-wave inversion is indeed non-linear, ill-posed and it

is affected by solution non-uniqueness. This leads sometimes to strongly erroneous

results causing a general lack of confidence in non-invasive methods in the earth-

quake engineering community.

In this framework, the project InterPACIFIC (Intercomparison of methods for

site parameter and velocity profile characterization), part of the SIGMA project,

compares the main techniques for surface wave methods (intra-methods compari-

son) and provides, as well, a comparison between non-invasive techniques and inva-

sive ones (inter-methods comparison) in order to evaluate the reliability of the

results obtained with different techniques. In the InterPACIFIC project, three sites

were chosen in order to evaluate the performance of both invasive and non-invasive

techniques in three different subsoil conditions: soft soil, stiff soil and rock. At all

sites, at least two boreholes were available to perform the in-hole measurements.

Both active and passive surface wave data were collected, all of them located in the

vicinity of the boreholes for a better comparison between the results from invasive

5.1Soil Characterization 87

500

450

400 103

Phase Velocity [m/s]

350

300

250

200

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 102

100 101 102

Frequency [Hz] Frequency [Hz]

Fig. 5.1 Comparison of the dispersion curves for the Grenoble site: (a) linear scale (b) log scale

and non-invasive methods. Ten different teams of engineers, geologists and seis-

mologists were invited to take part in the project in order to perform a blind test: the

same experimental non-invasive datasets and very little information about the sites

were provided to all teams and then the results were compared. As far as the inva-

sive methods are concerned, different techniques were used by different companies

in order to assess the repeatability of this kind of measurements.

The main conclusions drawn from this benchmark can be stated as follows:

The results show that, as far as the surface wave methods are concerned, the

determination of the dispersion curve is much less critical than the inversion

process. The dispersion curves provided by the participants were in very good

agreement with each other (Fig.5.1 presents one example for the Grenoble site

in France). Nevertheless, the VS profiles obtained by the inversion show a quite

high variability and some features are not uniquely identified or not identified at

all, like for example a low velocity layer at one site. When the velocity profiles

are considered within realistic depth ranges (i.e. those consistent with the maxi-

mum wavelength available with the used acquisition geometry), the results are

more satisfactory than initially expected (Fig.5.2). The standard deviation of VS

values at a given depth is still, by and large, higher for non-invasive techniques

(coefficients of variation (cov) = 0.10.15) than for invasive ones (cov < 0.1) as

shown in Fig.5.3 for the three tested sites (Garofalo etal. 2016). It is important

to note that, since it was a blind test, no a-priori information was provided to the

teams.

Within the project, the same in-hole measurements were tested by different com-

panies in an effort to assess the repeatability of such methods. The results show a

surprising dispersion (even if the dispersion on velocity profiles appears signifi-

88 5 Site Response Characterization

Fig. 5.2 Left: VS profiles for Grenoble site; right: zoom of top 100m

Fig. 5.3 Comparison of invasive and non-invasive VS COV values as a function of depth at

Mirandola (MIR; a, b), Grenoble (GRE; c) and Cadarache (CAD; d)

5.1Soil Characterization 89

Fig. 5.4 InterPACIFIC subproject: Comparison among the VS profiles obtained with invasive

methods (in green) and non-invasive methods, related to the analysis of active and passive seismic

data (in red) and only passive seismic data (in blue). Sites: Mirandola (MIR, left), Grenoble (GRE,

middle) and Cadarache (CAD, right)

cantly lower than for non-invasive methods, see Fig.5.4 where one green curve is

obviously an outlier and was not considered in the analysis).

Nevertheless, it is interesting to note that VS30, from which the site class can be

assessed, measured with invasive and non-invasive techniques compare favour-

ably to each other as shown in Fig.5.5, where results of the InterPACIFIC bench-

mark are compared to other studies. Moreover, the standard deviation in VS30 is

comparable between both methods (and even lower for non-invasive methods at

one site).

The PSSL method produced robust results (within the errors bars of cross-hole

and down-hole measurements). PSSL is widely used in USA and Japan, but not

yet in France and Italy. It allows performing in-situ measurements within a single

hole to rather large depths (several hundreds of meters) where cross-hole and

down-hole measurements are no longer reliable.

As a conclusion of this benchmark, for a complete characterization of a site it is

recommended to use both invasive and non-invasive methods, as they are comple-

mentary. Furthermore, it is mandatory to supplement the geophysical surveys with

geotechnical boreholes for soil classification (grain size distribution, Atterberg lim-

its, moisture content and so forth).

90 5 Site Response Characterization

Fig. 5.5 Relation between VS30 values estimated with invasive and non-invasive methods

Non-invasive methods have a low vertical resolution. For example, they were not

able to identify with a sufficient vertical resolution some feature like the low v elocity

layers, found at 17m and 25 m, at the Grenoble test site. Nevertheless, for average

parameters (like VS30) or even for 1D transfer function estimations based on mea-

sured velocity profiles, they provide robust and reliable results. In addition, one or

several profiles (if 2D or 3D model are needed) based on non-invasive methods can

be implemented for a better evaluation of the spatial variability. Non-invasive meth-

ods do not have real depth limitations if the chosen arrays are large enough. Hence,

they can be a useful complement for sites where the bedrock is too deep to be

reached with invasive measurements at reasonable costs. Guidelines have been

established (deliverable D3-134) to increase the reliability and minimize the risk of

errors or misinterpretation in performing site investigations with non-invasive tech-

niques. These guidelines cover the data acquisition and processing, the parameter-

ization of the velocity profile and the inversion process.

It is recommended that at least one cross-hole (with three aligned boreholes for

more reliable results) be performed down to 30 or 50m. For NPPs a cross-hole test

is traditionally extended down to approximately 100m below the reactor building.

In addition, one of the boreholes can be extended to larger depth (if possible down

to bedrock) and be used for PSSL measurements to measure the bedrock velocity,

which is an important parameter for site response analysis. If this velocity is not

measurable beneath the site, additional measurements should be conducted where

the bedrock is outcropping, taking into account in the interpretation that the bedrock

may be weathered near the surface and that the velocity may increase with depth.

For a less complete site characterization, in relation with the method retained for

the evaluation of the site amplification, non-invasive techniques can be preferred,

for instance to define the site class or VS30.

5.1Soil Characterization 91

recording, on site or in the vicinity, ground motions induced by real earthquakes.

Based on these freefield records, empirical approaches can be implemented that

could allow to:

Measure the site to reference transfer function or other quantification of this

quantity (e.g. coda and duration);

Consider the use of methods like empirical Greens functions;

Evaluate the high frequency attenuation of seismic signals (characterized by the

kappa parameter, see Chap. 4); and

Understand the potential for seismic activity on nearby faults.

While these approaches are readily applicable in areas of high seismicity (e.g.

Japan and Greece), where the data are both numerous and correspond to earth-

quakes of moderate to high magnitude, they are more difficult to implement in areas

of low seismicity, as in mainland France. Indeed, there are few records in these areas

and they correspond to distant earthquakes (medium to high magnitude earthquakes

far away from the site), or regional and local earthquakes, but with low to moderate

magnitudes.

Through continuous measurements made with both velocity meters and acceler-

ometers at several French sites it has been demonstrated that the number of useable

events (events with a good signal-to-noise ratio, S/N) obtained during a rather short

observation period is high in comparison with what was expected before installing

the instruments. At one French site (with moderate seismicity in a rather low noise

context) very robust amplification functions were determined with more than one

hundred usable events in the intermediate frequency range (Fig.5.6). On this site, it

was also possible to evaluate the 0 parameter of Eq. (4.1), which is more difficult to

assess because it needs a high-frequency analysis, where the S/N is usually lower.

Even if instrumentation can provide important information about site response,

it must be said that it cannot alone solve the whole site effect issue. Indeed, the

events that can be expected within a reasonable time interval have usually quite

large epicentral distances, which imply that the incidence angle of the wave field is

almost vertical. It is, however, worth mentioning that vertical wave incidence is

commonly assumed in site response calculations. Furthermore, the recordable

events produce (very) weak motions and, hence, they cannot address the non-

linearity issues. Nevertheless, instrumental data appear essential to producing

empirical amplification functions that are useful when validating numerical simula-

tions for a given range of incidence angles, source sizes and motion amplitudes.

Once the simulations are validated with empirical measurements, other scenarios

involving extended sources, non-linearity etc. can be explored.

Recommendations have been formulated in Deliverable D3-152 to collect valu-

able information from the seismic instrumentation; this involves use of velocity

92 5 Site Response Characterization

Fig. 5.6 Evaluation of signal to noise ratio for 101 events recorded with velocity meters during

231 days (South-East of France); each subplot presents the analysis at a given frequency

meters, proper choice of the reference (rock) stations locations and the need for

continuous recording as opposed to triggered records.

With the presently available technology, nonlinear soil properties can only be

obtained from laboratory tests carried out under well-defined and constrained envi-

ronmental conditions. Needless to say, reliable results can only be obtained if undis-

turbed samples are used. Retrieving undisturbed samples from the ground in

cohesionless soils is a huge challenge that will not be addressed here.

Usually, engineers consider that the nonlinear behaviour is uniquely determined

from knowledge of the variation of the secant shear modulus G and equivalent

damping ratio with shear strain amplitude: the so-called G/Gmax = f() and = g()

curves. However, it must be realized that real soil behaviour involves a coupling

between shear strain and volumetric strain and that, even under pure 1-D analysis

(vertical propagation of shear waves in a horizontally-layered profile), settlements

in dry soils or pore pressure build-up in saturated sands may take place. Therefore,

5.2Hazard Assessment at theGround Surface 93

a complete description of the soil constitutive model requires data not only on the

shear behaviour but also on the volumetric behaviour. Only the linear and equivalent

linear models do not require knowledge on the volumetric behaviour because pure

shear (vertical propagation of shear waves in a horizontally-layered profile) induces

only shear strains.

Even if one focuses only on the shear behaviour, several pitfalls exist that should

be properly handled:

A common mistake in the characterization of the shear behaviour is to measure

the G/Gmax curves in the lab under a given confining pressure and to consider that

the same curve applies at any depth in the soil profile provided the material does

not change. It is well known, however, that not only Gmax but also the shape of the

curve depends on the confining pressure (Ishihara 1996). To overcome such a

difficulty, and to keep the number of tests to a reasonable number, the correct

representation is to normalize not only the modulus but also the strain

G/Gmax = f(/r), where r is a reference shear strain (Hardin and Drenvich 1972).

A difficulty for a complete definition of the shear behaviour, faced during the

Prenolin benchmark (Sect. 5.3.3), is the extrapolation of the G/Gmax curve back

to small strains; typically, the laboratory equipment that was used to measure the

soil properties was a cyclic triaxial apparatus, which led to inaccurate results for

strains smaller than about 104. How to reconcile the shear modulus at = 104

to the elastic modulus, Gmax, calculated from in situ geophysical measurements,

was a matter of debate and no unique, satisfactory solution was found. This issue

is important because it governs the shape of the stress-strain curve in the inter-

mediate strain range, which, in turn, affects the site response. Alternative choices

for the extrapolation contribute to an increase of the epistemic uncertainty. This

situation can obviously be improved by combining cyclic triaxial tests with reso-

nant column tests, which are able to handle smaller strains.

Seismic hazard at the ground surface may cover different aspects: vibratory ground

motion, surface faulting, induced hazards like slope instability, liquefaction and so

forth. The SIGMA project only addressed the vibratory ground motion aspect and,

therefore, the other topics are not covered in this document.

The most straightforward approach to define the hazard at the ground surface

consists of making use, in the PSHA, of generic GMPEs that, through a given proxy,

take into account the site characteristics. However, this approach will not give full

credit to the peculiar characteristics of the site. One alternative is to start from the

rock hazard and to define site amplification functions (SAF), typically described as

a function of frequency, which modify the rock hazard spectrum. These site ampli-

fication functions are defined by the response spectral ratio of the response at the

site divided by the corresponding response at the ideal outcropping bedrock

94 5 Site Response Characterization

GENERIC SITE-SPECIFIC

Surface spectra

Surface

PSHA Amplification Factors, AF,

horizon

GMPEs Vs,G/Gmax(),D() Input motions

Analyses

Disaggregation

Baserock Response

Spectra

Baserock

PSHA

horizon

Sigma model

Target GMPEs

(fss, )

Target Host

Vs, K0+ Vs-K Adjustment Factors Vs, K0+

Host GMPEs

Fig. 5.7 Schematic representation of generic and site-specific hazard calculations for a considered

site (Modified from Rodriguez-Marek etal. 2014)

Hybrid probabilistic/deterministic Fully probabilistic

Generic site Site-specific (HyS) Generic site Site-specific (FpS)

(HyG) (FpG)

PSHA at PSHA at rock + SAF PSHA based PSHA at rock + convolution

rock + SAF based on site-specific on site- with SAF conditioned to rock

based on seismic response analyses or specific ground motion.

norms measurements GMPEs Typically based on site response

(single-station analyses

sigma)

Modified from Faccioli etal. (2015)

observations, or numerically from site response analyses. While in the numerical

calculations the availability of a reference station is not generally of concern, since

response at an ideal rock site can generally be determined (Sect. 6.7), experimental

evaluations of SAFs are in most cases limited by the lack of suitable reference sta-

tions in the vicinity of the site.

The two approaches in the ground motion characterization for a site-specific and

generic PSHA are illustrated in Fig.5.7. Note that this figure only considers SAFs

evaluated from numerical calculations.

Following Cramer (2003), Bazzurro and Cornell (2004b) and Perez etal. (2009),

the classes of approaches to account for seismic site response within a PSHA can be

broadly classified as summarized in Table5.1.

5.2Hazard Assessment at theGround Surface 95

Hybrid approaches are typically based on the results of a PSHA at a rock site,

where site response effects are superimposed by multiplying the UHS at rock by a

suitable SAF.The latter may be defined either by the spectral amplification factors

for generic sites introduced typically by local norms or guidelines (approach HyG),

or by a site-specific SAF, calculated in most cases by considering the mean amplifi-

cation function from 1D linear-equivalent seismic wave propagation analyses for

the specific soil profile (approach HyS). In such analyses, time-history calculations

are typically carried out by considering a suite of real accelerograms, satisfying the

response spectrum compatibility with the target PSHA spectrum on rock. While

HyG is the approach implicitly outlined by seismic norms, approach HyS is fre-

quently used for site-specific seismic hazard analyses of important facilities so that

it may be considered as the reference approach. Although sound, and easy to under-

stand, from an engineering point of view, a limitation of the hybrid approach is that

it may provide estimates of the exceedance rates at the site that are not consistent

with the corresponding ones on rock, as noted by Bazzurro and Cornell (2004a, b).

The above mentioned limitations can be overcome by following fully probabilis-

tic approaches, which may be broadly subdivided in terms of their range of applica-

tion, either for a generic site (FpG) or for a specific site (FpS). The FpG approach is

based on the standard application of PSHA, where the site response is summarized

within a period-dependent site correction factor to modify the expression of the

considered GMPE. Such correction factors are provided by practically all recent

GMPEs (www.gmpe.org.uk), either in terms of broad soil categories or in terms of

soil classes related to seismic norms, or of other related engineering parameters/

proxies such as VS30. The drawback of such an approach is that it may not provide

reliable results when dealing with site-specific response evaluations. In the latter

case, a site-specific GMPE could be used (Ordaz etal. 1994), if a sufficient number

of strong-motion records are available at the site for a reliable GMPE to be con-

structed, but this is seldom the case. Finally, an FpS approach may be followed,

such as described in Sect. 2.5.3.1 and in particular proposed by Bazzurro and

Cornell (2004a, b), involving the calibration of conditional SAFs, i.e., of the site-

specific ground motion amplification values at a specific vibration period, condi-

tioned to the exceedance of a given level of ground motion on rock.

Although this fully probabilistic site-specific approach allows a formally correct

incorporation of seismic site response into the PSHA, it suffers from several limita-

tions that were addressed in Deliverable D3-54, namely:

the probability distribution of the conditioned amplification function is based on

1D numerical simulations of vertically propagating plane waves at a nonlinear

soil site with uncertain properties: this assumption is expected to deeply affect

not only the median amplification function, but also its standard deviation;

observed amplification at the site may also be affected by source-to-site azimuth

and directivity, especially in near-source regions (e.g., because of different angles

of incidence of waves, or because of larger/smaller onset of surface waves

depending on the relative position of the source with respect to the basin). This

is neglected by 1D approaches; and

96 5 Site Response Characterization

especially to quantify the values.

The Bazzurro and Cornell (2004a, b) approach has been followed in recent proj-

ects like PEGASOS and PEGASOS Refinement Project (Renault 2009). However,

it has not been implemented within the framework of the SIGMA project and, con-

sequently, it will not be presented in detail herein. The interested reader may refer

to the original work of Bazzurro and Cornell (2004a, b) or to Deliverable D3-96in

which it is briefly outlined. Within the framework of SIGMA the three other

approaches, HyG, HyS and FpG, have been tested by the French and Italian teams.

The Italian team applied the method to the Casaglia site in the Po Plain (Deliverables

D3-96 and D4-94, a further application to the Mirandola site in Po Plain is illus-

trated in Faccioli etal. 2015) and the French team applied it to two sites: Grenoble

(France) and EuroseisTest (Greece) (Deliverable D4-153).

5.2.1 D

irect Evaluation fromGround Motion Prediction

Equations (FpG)

Instead of computing the rock hazard and then transferring it to the ground surface

with approaches that will be detailed in the following paragraphs, relevant GMPEs

can be used in the PSHA to directly compute the hazard at the ground surface. This

approach assumes that: (a) the soil conditions at the site resemble those at the sta-

tions in the database considered for the development of the GMPEs used for the

hazard estimation and (b) the site response is assumed to be correctly captured by

the site model included in the adopted GMPEs. To be valid, the GMPE must be

representative of the site conditions, i.e. include a proxy that is deemed to represent

the ground conditions; some GMPEs may also include a nonlinear term for high-

amplitude motions. The most commonly used proxies are the VS30 and the site fun-

damental frequency f0 or the site class (Eurocode or NEHRP classification);

examples of relevant GMPEs are given in Deliverable D3-152. This approach is

crude because each site has its own peculiarities like, for instance, interbedded lay-

ers with a high stiffness contrast, marked subsurface topography and so forth and

use of a single proxy cannot account for all the site-specific features. Nevertheless,

it can be argued that empirical GMPEs are established from large databases, which

also certainly contain peculiar sites. The main advantage of the approach is that a

full probabilistic analysis is possible with propagation of all (certainly overesti-

mated) uncertainties. Note that even in this simplified approach, a good character-

ization of the soil profile is needed (VS30, soil class, f0). As mentioned previously,

this approach has been implemented for the Grenoble, Po Plain, and EuroseisTest

sites. Results will be compared to the other approaches in Sect. 5.3.2.

An alternative site-specific approach in the same broad category (FpG) consists

in applying data-based corrections to the GMPEs median values and in replacing

their standard deviations. This approach can be implemented when a sufficient

5.2Hazard Assessment at theGround Surface 97

number of records is available at the target site. It is also desirable that the recorded

earthquakes span a sufficient range of magnitudes, distances and azimuth angles.

Following this approach the GMPEs median predictions are modified through site-

specific correction factors (S2S) and the GMPEs sigma is replaced with the single-

station sigma (ss,s), as explained in Sect. 4.3. The S2S factor can, in first

approximation, be considered as an intrinsic characteristic of the site and is used to

modify the predictions by a GMPE, in a very simple way. More precisely, the site

correction term modifies the GMPE median prediction ( GMPE (T)) as follows:

S 2 S( T )

(5.1)

This approach has been implemented by the Italian team for the Casaglia (CAS)

and Novellara (NVL) deep soil sites in the Po Plain. A generic, regional GMPE has

been established (in Deliverable D2-72) to a large extent from records on sites in the

Po plain with similar characteristics to the Casaglia and Novellara sites; the median

predictions from this GMPE were then modified with the S2S term established

from the acceleration records obtained at both sites. Likewise, the original standard

deviation of the GMPE has been replaced by the single-station sigma derived from

the same records. Results for the Casaglia site are compared to the standard approach

(direct use of a GMPE for the relevant soil class) in Fig.5.8.

The figure below has been established for just a single branch of the PSHA logic

tree (one source model, one GMPE) and compares the standard approach (in blue)

and the site-specific approach with the above correction (in green). The other curves

in Fig.5.8 correspond to different approaches that are presented in the following

paragraphs, whereas the implications of the present approach on the terms are

discussed in Sect. 5.4. As seen from the figure, the CAS example strongly indicates

that the soil surface spectra can decrease significantly when using results from local

site analyses (single-station coefficients) instead of the site coefficient of the

GMPEs. This behaviour is however site-specific and does not occur for instance at

NVL.

This approach assumes that the hazard calculated with GMPEs, either at rock or at

the surface, is a first-order model for the target site response but that some site-

specificity must be introduced in order to provide a better description of the site

response. A correction factor can be developed and applied, as a post-processing, to

the computed hazard spectrum.

98 5 Site Response Characterization

Fig. 5.8 Casaglia (Po plain) site. Site specific median ground surface spectrum for 2475-years

return period

The most commonly accepted meaning for this approach consists in starting from

the UHS at the bedrock and applying a site amplification factor (SAF), based on

some site characteristics, to compute the surface spectrum. SAFs can be given by

norms, based on the site class (e.g. Eurocode or NEHRP), or can be measured

experimentally on site (ideally in a vertical array) if the latter is located in a reason-

ably active area.

As neither Italy nor France have a sufficient amount of data from a single site, the

approach could not be fully tested. However, taking advantage of the Japanese KiK-

net data (http://www.kyoshin.bosai.go.jp/), Paolucci etal. (Deliverable D3-96) cal-

culated the SAFs from stations exhibiting a VS soil profile similar to those observed

in the Po Plain, i.e., deep soil sites with VS30 values in the range 200400 m.s1.

From their study at 21 stations and considering only shallow events (depth < 15 km)

with PGA > 10 cm.s2 they reach the following conclusions:

observed variability of SAFs at KiK-net deep soil sites is generally limited in

spite of the wide range of magnitude and distances encompassed by records

(Fig.5.9);

5.2Hazard Assessment at theGround Surface 99

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

0

S-wave

P-wave

40

80

Depth (m)

120

160

200

Fig. 5.9 Unconditioned SAFs (left side) and Vs profiles (right side) for one deep soil site station

(NIGH11) in the Kik-net. The Mw-Repi distribution for the considered records is also shown

pseudo-velocity on rock, PSVR) do not show a significant, if any, dependence on

the intensity of motion at bedrock, suggesting, for the stations considered, no

clear evidence of nonlinear site response, in spite of the relatively soft soil condi-

tions (Fig.5.10). This is at variance with results from Rgnier etal. (2013) who

found significant evidence for the shift of the predominant peak frequency with

increasing amplitude of motion at the borehole station. Reasons for such discrep-

ancy are not yet understood;

log10 computed from the conditioned SAFs ranges typically between 0.04 and

0.08; furthermore, no clear evidence is found of a dependence of log10 with

period.

A similar finding of a limited aleatory variability of SAFs from low intensity

records at deep soil sites has been confirmed by the surface-to-borehole spectral

ratios observed from a selected set of records at Casaglia. The interesting remark on

these records is that the observed SAF remains nearly unchanged, irrespective of

earthquake magnitude and distance, both for local weak events and for distant stron-

ger earthquakes. However, in none of the selected cases, was the ground-motion

amplitude high enough to predict any significant nonlinear effect.

100 5 Site Response Characterization

101 101 101

PSA surf/PSA depth

100 100 100

10-2 10-1 100 101 102 10-2 10-1 100 101 102 10-2 10-1 100 101 102

PSVR[cm/s] PSVR[cm/s] PSVR[cm/s]

101 101 101

PSA surf/PSA depth

100 100 100

10-2 10-1 100 101 102 10-2 10-1 100 101 102 10-2 10-1 100 101 102

PSVR[cm/s] PSVR[cm/s] PSVR[cm/s]

101 101 101

PSA surf/PSA depth

100 100 100

10-2 10-1 100 101 102 10-2 10-1 100 101 102 10-2 10-1 100 101 102

PSVR[cm/s] PSVR[cm/s] PSVR[cm/s]

Fig. 5.10 Conditioned SAFs for different vibration periods for station NIGH11, with data grouped

by Magnitude. Blue dots: M < 4, green: 4 < M < 5; magenta: 5 < M < 6; red: M > 6

The approach suggested here consists of calculating first the ground surface response

spectrum with the relevant GMPEs (Sect. 5.2.1), and then of applying a site correc-

tion factor on the rationale that the GMPEs do not reflect all site peculiarities, for

instance a significant 2D sub-topography (basin effect). The correction factor can be

either derived from statistical relationships (Site Amplification Prediction Equation,

SAPE) or calculated with reference to a 1D analysis.

SAPE was introduced by Cadet etal. (2012a, b), to define empirical prediction

of site amplification as a function of a few parameters (VSZ, with z equal to 5, 10, 20

and 30m and f0) derived from Japanese strong-motion data (KiK-net). The amplifi-

cation factor was estimated from the ratios between the surface and down-hole hori-

zontal response spectra, corrected for the varying depths and impedance of the

down-hole locations. The amplification factors were then correlated with site

parameters. The results showed that the best performance in predicting site amplifi-

cations was obtained by the coupled parameters VS30 f0, while the best single

parameter proved to be f0. The hazard spectrum should then be multiplied by the

amplification function. However, care must be taken in the combination of hazard

spectrum and amplification function in order not to double count the site effect in

5.3Completely Site Specific Approaches (HyS) 101

both GMPEs and SAPE.For example, a SAPE based on f0 can be applied to a haz-

ard spectrum calculated for the selected VS30 value in the adopted GMPEs, assuming

that VS30 and f0 are poorly correlated and thus account for different origins of site

amplification. On the contrary if a SAPE based on both VS30 and f0 is used, then the

hazard spectrum should be calculated using a reference rock VS30 (e.g., VS30 = 800m.

s1) in the GMPEs.

The advantage of this approach is to allow considering the amplification at the

fundamental frequency of the site, which is usually neglected in the generic approach

because only few GMPEs adopt the fundamental frequency as a site-effect proxy.

The main limitation in the application of SAPE is related to the database, consisting

exclusively of Japanese data, which may emphasize systematic differences in the

shallow site amplification in Japan with respect to other regions. Due to this limita-

tion, use of SAPE is not recommended.

To account for sites prone to 2D or 3D amplification (basin effect, above surface

topography) much larger than implied in the generic GMPEs, the notion of aggrava-

tion factor (AG) was introduced by ChavezGarcia and Faccioli (2000) to reflect the

contribution in site effect due to a complex local geometry with respect to 1D geom-

etry. It is defined as the ratio between 2D/3D and 1D calculated response spectra.

AGs may be obtained from 2D/3D calculations with different soil constitutive mod-

els (linear, equivalent linear, fully nonlinear) and using accelerograms consistent

with the hazard level. Ratios between 2D/3D and 1D response spectra are then

computed and the final aggravation factor (and associated standard deviation) is

deduced. The AG is then applied to a reference hazard spectrum in which the 1D

response of the soil is assumed to be accounted for. AGs are based on ratios of com-

putations: as a first approximation, it is assumed that a change in the model descrip-

tion (e.g. a velocity change) will affect more or less similarly both 1D and 2D/3D

computations. The overall results are then less sensitive to changes (inaccuracies) in

the model description. AGs have also been proposed, based on an extensive number

of calculations and simplified typologies, by the NERA project (http://www.nera-

eu.org).

An example of aggravation factor calculated for the EuroseisTest site is depicted

in Fig.5.11 (Deliverable D3-152).

The site-specific approaches are based on a detailed consideration of the local site

response and relative uncertainties. The site amplification is estimated using more

or less sophisticated numerical or experimental (Sect. 5.2.2.1 for one example)

methods depending on the characteristics of the site. In order to solve this problem

several steps need to be considered (see Fig.5.7):

definition of an input motion at the base of the soil profile. This may require the

calculation of the rock hazard for large values of VS30 (hard-rock conditions) that

102 5 Site Response Characterization

factors

may be outside the domain of validity of the adopted GMPEs (i.e., VS30 larger

than 12001500 m.s1). In this case the GMPEs need to be adjusted for such

hard-rock conditions in order to correctly represent the input motion for the site

response analyses (see Sect. 4.3).

choice of acceleration time histories when numerical simulations are foreseen.

Selection of relevant time histories is an important step, especially for nonlinear

analyses and represents an important task by itself; this aspect is covered in Sect.

6.7. Within the framework of SIGMA several different strategies have been used

to choose the accelerograms based on the UHS: scaled natural records over the

whole frequency range or over two different frequency ranges (2 sets of accelero-

grams) and spectrally-matched accelerograms.

geometric definition of the soil profile: 1D (i.e., horizontally layered strata), 2D

(i.e., alluvium valley or topographic ridge), or fully 3D.

rheological characterization of the soil layers: linear viscoelastic, viscoelastic

linear equivalent or fully non-linear behaviour.

definition of the incident wave field: plane wave with vertical or oblique inci-

dence, or surface wave (typically corresponding to a remote source); for a poten-

tial source close to the site, it is preferable to include the source in the

computational model; this can be either a point source or an extended source, the

latter one being more realistic for a source-site distance smaller or comparable to

the fault size, and being preferable for earthquakes with magnitude larger than 6.

choice of a (or several) software package to make the calculations; the most com-

monly used codes are listed in Sect. 6.3.2.

In SIGMA, almost all options were tested but most of the calculations were

restricted to vertical incident plane waves.

5.3Completely Site Specific Approaches (HyS) 103

Fig. 5.12 Comparison between different attenuation models for 1D 2D 3D linear computa-

tions for the Grenoble test-site. Solid line: results with model 1 taking into account standard

scaling to define Q factors (e.g. QS = VS/10). Dashed lines: results with model 2, using the damp-

ing factor computed with 1D non-linear computations

From a rheological point of view, the linear viscoelastic assumption is the simplest

constitutive model that can be used: it simply requires the definition of the dilata-

tional VP and shear VS wave velocities and of attenuation (quality factor) for each

wave, QP and QS.1 While appropriate techniques exist for measuring the wave veloc-

ities (see Sect. 5.1), there are presently no established ones for measuring the atten-

uation; a typical, very crude rule of thumb is to use Q = VS/10 (m.s1). Furthermore,

no distinction is made between QP and QS. Sensitivity analyses carried out during

the project have shown that the results (ground surface motions) are very sensitive

to the choice of Q. Consequently, this parameter significantly increases the epis-

temic uncertainty of the analyses. To illustrate this point, Fig.5.12 presents for the

Grenoble site the surface response spectra calculated with two assumptions for

attenuation.

The main advantage of linear constitutive models is their simplicity that theoreti-

cally allows considering 2D and, possibly 3D, geometries. However, in practice, 3D

calculations are not feasible for frequencies higher than about 4Hz because of the

1

In geotechnical earthquake engineering the equivalent damping ratio, , is more commonly used;

it is related to the attenuation by 2 = Q1

104 5 Site Response Characterization

restrictions posed on the element mesh size (h /10, with the wavelength) and

above all because it is impossible to characterize the soil medium at such a small

scale over large areas. Except for low amplitude rock motions, the linear viscoelas-

tic analyses are not recommended as it is recognized that soils may exhibit nonlin-

ear behaviour from small strains, although some counterexamples exist [see for

instance Fig.5.10 which documents linear behaviour up to PSV = 20 cm.s1, or the

Mirandola site studied in Faccioli etal. (2015)]. Linear calculations may, however,

be of value for calibrating the velocity profiles with the results of small recorded

earthquakes or validating the computational codes in the linear range.

Given the complexity of the nonlinear behaviour of soils, equivalent linear models

represent a good compromise between engineering practice and scientific knowl-

edge; they presently constitute the state of practice in site response analyses. Many

models and codes have been developed and are currently used for such simulations

(see Sect. 6.3.2). However, these models have some limitations: it is generally

accepted that they are valid for shear strains smaller than 0.10.3%. Since the upper

limit for the shear strain depends on the soil plasticity index and confining pressure

(depth), it is better to relate it, rather than to an absolute value, to a reference shear

strain r defined as max = r. Gmax; a value r = 2 is suggested. Despite their relative

simplicity and the limited number of parameters required (wave-velocity profiles,

variation of the properties with shear strain), the equivalent linear models are also

subject to large uncertainties. As noted in Sect. 5.1.4, the variations of properties

can only be measured in the laboratory on undisturbed samples, and are not always

obtained under the relevant stresses, especially for large depths. In view of these

difficulties, often the curves G/Gmax = f() and = g() are chosen from published

results in the literature. This uncertainty in the definition of the nonlinear properties

is strongly reflected in uncertainties in the calculations. One such example is pre-

sented in Figs.5.13 and 5.14, obtained for the Casaglia site (Deliverable D3-96)

with different sets of published curves.

Equivalent linear analyses have been implemented both by the Italian (Casaglia

site) and the French teams (Grenoble and EuroseisTest) using 1D calculations.

Results from the Casaglia site are presented in Fig.5.8 introduced previously. The

two red solid curves correspond to two different strategies for the selection of the

input motions: either natural, moderately scaled, or spectrally-matched records. The

correction of the input signals for spectral matching does not affect values beyond

about 0.2 s, where a close agreement with the NTC2008 norms (Italian code spec-

trum for Class C soil) is attained. For T < 0.2 s, on the other hand, the input correc-

tion slightly affects the results; in particular, the PGA value of the spectrum. More

significant, however, is that the use of both SAFs leads to decreasing the values of

the site specific spectra below the bedrock values at periods 0 < T < 0.2 s, mostly

5.3Completely Site Specific Approaches (HyS) 105

Fig. 5.13 Modulus reduction and damping curves for clay soils data at 9.6m depth (from D3-96)

due to nonlinear effects. Also worth noting is that the non-ergodic PSHA spectrum

from the GMPE (green curve) is not far from the rock SAF spectra. On the

whole, the Casaglia example strongly indicates that the soil surface spectra may

decrease significantly when using results from local site analyses (such as SAFs or

single site coefficients and sigmas) instead of the site coefficient of the GMPEs.

106 5 Site Response Characterization

Fig. 5.14 Five percent damped response spectra obtained by 1D propagation analyses performed

using the soil degradation curves summarized in Fig.5.13 (From D3-96)

This is caused by the notable deamplification indicated by negative S2S values and

does not necessarily hold true for all sites.

Results obtained by the French team for the Grenoble site shown in Fig.5.15 are

consistent with those from Casaglia. The SAF applied to the rock spectrum are

derived from 1D linear, equivalent linear analyses after the bedrock motion has been

corrected for hard rock conditions (VS = 3500 m.s1). The surface spectra do exhibit

the same marked reduction from the spectrum calculated with the generic GMPE

(black solid line) when equivalent linear models are used and predict a much larger

amplification when using a linear model. Again, the set of time histories selected by

the Italian team (IT) or by the French team (FR) does not appear to have a strong

impact on the results.

Additional calculations were carried out for 2D and 3D geometries and linear

soil behaviour. The results, not presented herein (see Deliverable D3-152), show

that the aggravation factor, which intends to reflect the impact of the sub-surface

topography by correcting the surface spectrum leads to a surface spectrum that is

much higher (except at high frequencies >20 Hz) than the spectrum directly calcu-

lated from 3D, and even 2D, linear analyses; use of aggravation factors therefore

appears to be very conservative. Note, however, that due to inherent limitations of

3D calculations (see Sect. 5.3.1) they could not have been carried out above 4Hz

and the 3D results at larger frequencies have been extrapolated based on the SAFs

5.3Completely Site Specific Approaches (HyS) 107

Fig. 5.15 Response spectra computed for the Grenoble test-site with different approaches (all

target levels are for a return period of 10,000 years). Comparison between generic mean UHS

(black) and site-specific mean GMRS obtained using linear (blue, red), equivalent-linear (magenta)

and nonlinear (light blue, green) site amplification factors and Vs-kappa adjustment. The mean

UHS for bedrock conditions is also shown by the dashed black curve

of the 2D calculations; this may explain the somewhat inconsistent results, which

are nevertheless also predicted by 2D linear calculations.

When the shear strain exceeds the amplitudes previously indicated (i.e., above 0.3

0.5%, or better > 2r) or, in other words, for very soft soils and/or very severe

loading, a complete nonlinear modelling would theoretically be required, with an

appropriate constitutive relationship and its associated soil parameters. These mod-

els oscillate between two poles: relatively simple constitutive models with few

parameters, which can hardly reproduce all possible loading/unloading paths, and

more complex models with many parameters (sometimes exceeding ten), which

may succeed in describing all possible paths, but whose determination remain

largely beyond experimental capabilities. The validation of nonlinear approaches is

a major issue, which has not, up to now, received satisfactory scientific answers; the

Prenolin international benchmark was launched to address these issues. Twenty

three world wide teams participated in the benchmark (D3-114 and D3-149) with

the major objective of assessing the actual epistemic uncertainties associated with

nonlinear calculations, emphasizing those associated with the software (constitutive

108 5 Site Response Characterization

(kPa)

-100

100 B-0 H-0 M-0 R-0 Z-1

(kPa)

-100

100 C-0 J-0 M-1 S-0 F-0

(kPa)

-100

100 D-0 J-1 M-2 T-0 -5 0 5

(%)

(kPa)

-100

100 E-0 K-0 N-0 U-0

(kPa)

-100

-5 0 5 -5 0 5 -5 0 5 -5 0 5

(%) (%) (%) (%)

Fig. 5.16 Cyclic stress-strain loops for a soil element with shear strength 65 kPa subjected to a

sinusoidal input seismic motion of 10 s. Predictions produced by the different constitutive

models

models and numerical scheme), those associated with the translation of raw field

and laboratory data into design values for the nonlinear model parameters, and the

actual deviation of numerical predictions from observations (bias and scatter). Two

sites have been chosen in Japan and extensive 1D nonlinear calculations have been

performed. One of the main lessons from this project is the importance of the choice

and calibration of the constitutive model; this implies numerical testing of the model

over the whole strain range and comparison with laboratory tests. Figure5.16 pres-

ents results of the numerical tests of the constitutive models used in Prenolin deemed

to represent the cyclic behaviour of the same soil element for which the same

mechanical characteristics were provided to all participants.

Many results have been produced by this benchmark; their post-processing is

still ongoing and cannot be summarized here. An illustration of comparisons

between computed nonlinear site response and that observed is depicted in Fig.5.17

for four input motions; the weakest input motion is #9 and the two strongest ones

are #1 and #2.

Preliminary conclusions from the benchmark indicate that:

a very careful characterization of the soil profile is needed to achieve adequate

modelling with a combination of both laboratory and site measurements imple-

mented with different techniques (invasive vs. non-invasive);

use of several non-linear codes operated by different teams is desirable to assess

the epistemic uncertainty associated with the constitutive models; and

5.3Completely Site Specific Approaches (HyS) 109

Fig. 5.17 Comparison between the predicted transfer function at KiK-net site KSRH10 (1684

percentiles, colour shaded areas) and the observations (solid lines with corresponding colours),

for input motions 9, 5, 2 and 1

despite the large differences in the soil constitutive models and numerical

schemes, the epistemic uncertainty of the site-specific nonlinear calculations is

smaller than the value of the within-event variability of GMPEs for the site.

Nonlinear numerical analyses were also tested for the three sites: Casaglia,

Grenoble and EuroseisTest. Only one nonlinear constitutive model was retained for

each case and the results were compared to those of linear and equivalent linear

calculations. Results are presented only for one site (Grenoble) in Fig.5.18; how-

ever, the same conclusions were reached for the two other sites (see Fig. 5.8 for

Casaglia):

Linear calculations produce the highest amplification; as discussed previously,

this is due in a large part to the inaccurate definition of damping but, neverthe-

less, some sites may exhibit a more linear response than others;

Linear equivalent and nonlinear models tend to predict SAFs of the same order

of magnitude except for large amplitude motions (top diagram in Fig.5.18 cor-

responding to a large return period); and

SAFs are not very sensitive to the set of accelerograms used for the

calculations:

110 5 Site Response Characterization

Fig. 5.18 Spectral amplification factor computed in 1D analyses for the Grenoble test-site, with

accelerometers from set 1 (top), set 2IT (middle) and set 2FR (bottom)

a return period of 10,000 years and a PGA of 0.15 g, proposed by the French

team; and

Set 2IT: spectrally matched accelerograms proposed by the Italian team for

the same target as above.

In terms of ground response surface spectra Fig.5.15 shows that, as noted previ-

ously for the Casaglia site, the estimated soil surface spectra decrease significantly

5.4Treatment ofUncertainties 111

when using results from local site analyses (such as SAFs) instead of the site coef-

ficient of the GMPEs. Furthermore, except for very large input motions, complex

nonlinear analyses are not really warranted and equivalent linear analyses appear to

be accurate enough for engineering purposes.

The general framework for the treatment of uncertainties has been presented in Sect.

4.4 for the rock hazard. This paragraph explains how the uncertainties for site haz-

ard were handled in the SIGMA project.

For site hazard, the same scheme applies when the FpG approach is implemented

with the site term S2S and its site-to-site variability S2S related to the soil site. The

total single-station standard deviation at an individual site is then given by the last

line of Table 4.3. As already cited in Sect. 5.2.1 the methodology has been applied

to 12 sites in the Po Plain by Faccioli etal. (2015) to calculate the standard deviation

of S2S and ss,s, the event corrected single-station standard deviation at individual

sites. The epistemic uncertainty on ss,s, was estimated from its standard deviation

across many stations (in this case, the Po Plain 12-station set), thereby implicitly

assuming ergodicity in the variance (not in the mean). Such standard deviation (std

(ss,s)) was found equal to 0.08, and used to define upper and lower bound estimates

of ss,s according to:

( )

std (ss ,s ) + 2

2

ss ,s = ss ,s (5.2)

is the inter-event variability component of the considered GMPE (ITA13, see

deliverable D2-72), and its uncertainty was neglected.

The foregoing variability estimates are illustrated in Fig.5.19, which also shows

that the ITA13 GMPE sigma represents a kind of average ss,s of the three sites.

Introducing the variability bounds through ss,s is intended to accommodate, at least

in part, the uncertainty caused by multipathing, which is only partially accounted

for in the available data because of the predominance of the 2012 Emilia sequence

records both at the study sites and in the ITA13 GMPE (but see, on this aspect,

footnote 6in Chap. 4).

The previous median (Eq. 5.1) and sigma (Eq.5.2) formulations have been com-

bined in a simple logic tree for seismic hazard estimation. Comparison of predic-

tions with data from actual records (Reggio Emilia 1992 and Emilia 2012

earthquakes) shows that spectra are mostly within the spread spanned by the logic-

112 5 Site Response Characterization

a 1 b 0.8

MRN MRN

NVL NVL

S2S +/-S2S,epistemic

T0821 T0821

0.5 0.6

log10 ITA13

mean,u,l

0 0.4

ss,s

-0.5 0.2

-1 0

0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4

T (s) T (s)

Fig. 5.19(a) Site terms S2S for the three study sites with S2S;epistemic bands (T0821 coincides

with CAS). (b) Total single-site sigma ss;s for the same sites (lines), with variability bands enclosed

within the upper and lower limits estimated from Eq. (5.2); the ITA13 GMPE standard deviation

(log 10 ITA13) is also shown in this plot. The variability estimates are in both cases derived from a

12-site Po Plain data subset

tree branches for a return period of 475 years, and the spectral shapes are reasonably

similar. The code spectra are also consistent with the UHS at 475 years.

of site-specific hazard, each one containing an aleatory and an epistemic

component:

uncertainties in the rock (or hard-rock) hazard. Most of the ground motion uncer-

tainties are accounted for in the standard deviation of the GMPEs and in host-to-

target adjustment, if applied.

uncertainties in the site amplification function.

Apart from the aleatory uncertainty related to nonlinear soil behaviour, most of

the other sources of uncertainty are already, to a large extent, included in the alea-

tory variability of the rock GMPEs. For this reason, except for cases where the vari-

ability of nonlinear behaviour is significant, aleatory variability in site response

must not be included to avoid double counting of aleatory uncertainties in rock and

site hazard.

For a given target spectrum on rock, the sources of uncertainties in site response

evaluation can be identified as related to: (a) selection of input motions, (b) dynamic

properties of soil profile, (c) selection of the method of analysis for site response

evaluation, and (d) modelling of soil behaviour. To avoid double counting of alea-

tory uncertainties, only epistemic contributions will be referred to in the following,

so that the small scale random variability of soil properties is disregarded. As a mat-

ter of fact, the impact of the small scale random variability in the mechanical

5.4Treatment ofUncertainties 113

p roperties of the propagation path already can be considered as entering into the ss

uncertainty component of the partially non-ergodic analysis, by which the bedrock

UHS were determined.

The impact of the various sources of epistemic uncertainties in site response has

been illustrated in SIGMA with the studies reported in Faccioli etal. (2015) on one

site in the Po plain, i.e. the accelerometer station Mirandola (MRN).

It is shown that the uncertainty linked to the choice of input motions is considerably

reduced, to become almost negligible in the total uncertainty, when broad-band

spectral matching of the records to the target spectrum is achieved (see Sect. 6.7.1).

As pointed out in Sect. 5.1, this uncertainty can be reduced by combining experi-

mental measurements, measurements of velocity profiles by different techniques

including invasive and non-invasive techniques. For the Mirandola site studied by

Faccioli etal. (2015), the standard deviation of the site response due to alternative

VS profiles, Vs log10, was found to be of the order of 0.050.08 (Fig.5.20).

The examples presented either for the Casaglia site (Fig.5.14) and the Grenoble site

(Fig.5.18) have shown that the largest epistemic uncertainty resides in the choice of

the constitutive model (linear, equivalent linear or nonlinear) and of the associated

a 0.4 b 0.5

with 0-1 s scaling

with 0-5 s scaling 0.25

0.3 unscaled

0.2

SA out (g)

log10

0.2 0.15

0.1

0.1

0.05

0 0

0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4

T (s) T (s)

Fig. 5.20(a) Average acceleration response spectra resulting from different VS profiles and differ-

ent sets of input motions, either unscaled or scaled in the 01 s or 05 s period ranges. (b)

Corresponding sigma in a log 10 scale. RP = 475 years, equivalent-linear analyses

114 5 Site Response Characterization

parameters (degradation curves of Fig.5.13). Although the Italian team found that

for the deep soil sites in the Po plain the linear model predicted the closest response

to the recorded motions, this conclusion cannot be generalized to any situation: it

obviously depends on the soil material, the intensity of the rock motion, the reli-

ability of the soil parameters and so forth.

Faccioli etal. (2015) proposed that the resulting TOT associated with the average

site-specific response spectra for a given return period, including both the epistemic

uncertainties of the site-response analysis and the total (aleatory + epistemic) uncer-

tainties carried by the PSHA at exposed bedrock (PSHA rock) be evaluated as

TOT = max

T

( V2s + soil

2

_ model + PSHA _ rock ; Kik net

2

) (5.3)

where Kiknet is the standard deviation of SAFs of 21 deep soil sites considered from

the KiK-net (Sect. 5.2.1). The latter values of , which are in general related to the

combination of a wider set of seismic site amplification factors, rather than 1D

effects alone, can reasonably be considered as a lower bound for evaluations of site-

specific variability of results.

The major lessons in site response analyses learned from the SIGMA project have

been highlighted in the present chapter. The following bullet points are simply a

summary of the most important ones:

Consideration of site response in SHA requires more or less detailed character-

ization of the soils, depending on the level of sophistication of the analyses; this

characterization should be obtained from tests (field and/or laboratory tests) and

can be advantageously complemented with site instrumentation. The minimum

required information should include:

Description of the geometry of softer layers, with respect to underlying bed-

rock, and especially, in cases where topographic effects are important, deter-

mination of the aspect ratio (ratio between height and width of a basin);

position of the considered site with respect to the basin border;

VS and VP profiles; and

shear-wave velocity contrast between basin (or more generally the soft layers)

and bedrock.

Whenever possible the single-station sigma approach should be used with a view

to decreasing the level of uncertainty in the ground surface response.

5.6Additional Topics inGround Surface Hazard Assessment 115

The Hybrid site specific approach (HyS) is the most versatile approach and rep-

resents a good compromise between the simple fully probabilistic generic

approach (FpG), which tends to overestimate the ground surface response, and

the fully probabilistic site-specific approach (FpS), which is very demanding and

does not necessarily address all aspects of site response.

In the HyS approach the main source of epistemic uncertainty resides in the soil

behavior modelling; several models are available from the simple viscoelastic

linear model to the fully nonlinear model. The most appropriate one is still a mat-

ter of debate and comparison with field records gives contradictory results.

Furthermore, characterization of the constitutive model parameters is prone to

large uncertainties. At the present stage, it seems that equivalent linear models

present a sufficient degree of accuracy and recourse to more sophisticated non-

linear models is not warranted, except maybe at very long return periods.

Based on the experience gained during the SIGMA project, guidelines to con-

sider site response in PSHA have been prepared as deliverable D3-152. The main

objective of the guidelines is to propose a gradual approach based on the HpG, FpG

and HyS methods for considering site response; the choice between the three

approaches depends on the level of characterization of the input data and the esti-

mated importance of site response.

The following topics, although important for seismic hazard assessment, have delib-

erately not been considered in SIGMA.Therefore, they are not discussed in detail

and only general concepts are presented in the following paragraphs.

The number of GMPEs for vertical motions is, by far, fewer than those for horizon-

tal motions. Therefore, among the approaches listed in Table 5.1, the most com-

monly implemented are the HyG, HyS and FpS approaches. HyS and FpS are based

on numerical analyses. HyG is usually implemented after having calculated the

horizontal UHS at the ground surface (by any of the four approaches) and applying

V/H ratios, i.e. ratios between the vertical and horizontal response spectra at the

ground surface. Statistical frequency-dependent relationships have been developed

for such ratios. In this approach, attention must be paid to large amplitude motions

that may induce significant nonlinearities in the soil under horizontal loading. Under

vertical loading, mainly caused by the vertical propagation of dilatational waves,

nonlinearities are much more limited; it is, therefore, important that the V/H rela-

tionships reflect this characteristic, otherwise the vertical motion may be

116 5 Site Response Characterization

underestimated. Few such relationships exist; one can refer to Glerce and

Abrahamson, (2011).

Another approach for estimating the vertical ground motion may be based on

physics: for shallow profiles, especially those composed of water-saturated materi-

als, the wave lengths are much longer than the profile thickness because the soil is

nearly incompressible; the dilatational wave velocity exceeds 1500 m.s1 (velocity

of sound in water). It can, therefore, be argued that the vertical rock motion is barely

amplified at the ground surface.

Finally, if the ground surface response spectrum is calculated from 1D site

response analyses (HyS or FpS) attention must be paid to the soil characteristics.

Usually the vertical motion is calculated independently of the horizontal one and the

question arises of the proper soil characteristics to enter in the model, at least for

medium-to-large-amplitude motions. The state of practice is to use the properties

(VS) retrieved from the horizontal motion calculation (the strain compatible charac-

teristics in equivalent linear analyses) and to convert them into VP. In saturated soils

P waves travel through the water; the bulk modulus of the soil skeleton may be

slightly affected by the induced shear strain but the overall bulk modulus, which is

the sum of the soil skeleton bulk modulus and of the water bulk modulus, will be

almost unaffected. In dry soils, the propagation of P waves is controlled by the skel-

eton properties:

4

Vp 2 = K + G (5.4)

3

G and K are influenced by the shear strain but the bulk modulus K to a much lesser

extent than the shear modulus G. It seems, therefore, appropriate to calculate VP for

the vertical analyses assuming that K is strain independent, equal to its elastic value,

and that G is equal to the strain compatible value calculated in the horizontal equiva-

lent linear runs. Applying the same reduction to VP as to VS to account for nonlinear

effects is certainly unrealistic; however, any reduction in-between the one proposed

above, with no reduction on K, and the full reduction coming from VS is debatable

and contributes to the epistemic uncertainty. Obviously, if full nonlinear analyses

are carried out for the horizontal motion, the vertical motion shall be input simulta-

neously to the horizontal one and the constitutive model will account for the (time)

variations of both wave velocities.

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the United States and in

Europe have brought the issue of upper limits on earthquake ground motions into

the arena of problems requiring attention from the engineering seismological com-

munity. Few engineering projects are considered sufficiently critical to warrant the

use of annual frequencies of exceedance so low that ground-motion estimates may

References 117

become unphysical if limiting factors are not considered, but for nuclear waste

repositories, for example, the issue is of great importance. The definition of upper

bounds on earthquake ground motions also presents an exciting challenge for

researchers in the area of seismic hazard assessment (Bommer etal. 2004).

The maximum ground motions that can be experienced at the ground surface are

controlled by three factors: the most intense seismic radiation that can emanate from

the source of the earthquake; the interaction of radiation from different parts of the

source and from different travel paths; and the limits on the strongest motion that

can be transmitted to the surface by shallow geological materials. As seismic waves

propagate to the Earths surface, other factors act to limit the maximum amplitude

of the motion. These factors are associated with the failure of surface materials,

which are usually weaker than the underlying rock, under the loading conditions

generated by the passage of seismic radiation. The principle is similar to that of a

fuse: once failure is reached at a given depth within the soil profile, the high fre-

quency components of the incident motion are filtered and accelerations larger than

those reached at the failure stage cannot be transmitted to the upper strata; however,

this is counterbalanced by larger displacements.

The first and most obvious tool for exploring upper bounds on ground motions is

the ever-increasing databank of strong-motion accelerograms. Another approach is

to define the maximum rock motion, if any, and to calculate, based on the strength

of the overlying soil materials, the maximum motion that can be transmitted either

from simplified analytical models (Pecker 2005) or from nonlinear site response

analyses with increasing amplitudes at the bedrock. The simple procedure of trun-

cating at a specified number of logarithmic standard deviations above the logarith-

mic mean of the GMPE is unlikely to be an adequate solution (Bommer etal. 2004),

see also Sect. 4.4.1.

As a conclusion of this brief discussion, the issue of maximum ground motions

is still an open question requiring further attention.

References

Bazzurro P, Cornell CA (2004a) Ground-motion amplification in nonlinear soil sites with uncer-

tain properties. Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6):20902109

Bazzurro P, Cornell CA (2004b) Nonlinear soil-site effects in probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis.

Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6):21102123

Bommer JJ, Abrahamson N, Strasser FO, Pecker A, Bard PY, Bungum H, Cotton F, Fh D, Sabetta

F, Scherbaum F, Studer J(2004) The challenge of defining upper bounds on earthquake ground

motions. Seismol Res Lett 75(1):8295

Cadet H, Bard P-Y, Rodriguez-Marek A (2012a) Site effect assessment using KiK-net data: Part 1.

A simple correction procedure for surface/downhole spectral ratios. Bull Earthq Eng

10(2):421448

Cadet H, Bard P-Y, Duval AM, Bertrand E (2012b) Site effect assessment using KiK-net data: Part

2: Site amplification prediction equation based on f0 and VSZ. Bull Earthq Eng

10(2):451489

118 5 Site Response Characterization

Chavez GF, Faccioli E (2000) Complex site effects and building codes: making the leap. JSeismol

4(1):2340

Cramer CH (2003) Site seismic-hazard analysis that is completely probabilistic. Bull Seismol Soc

Am 93(4):18411846

Faccioli E, Paolucci R, Vanini M (2015) Evaluation of probabilistic site-specific seismic hazard

methods and associated uncertainties, with applications in the Po Plain, Northern Italy. Bull

Seismol Soc Am 105(5):27872807

Foti S, Lai CG, Rix GJ, Strobbia C (2014) Surface wave methods for near-surface site character-

ization. CRC Press, Boca Raton, p487, ISBN:9780415678766

Garofalo F, Foti S, Hollender F, Bard PY, Cornou C, Cox BR, Dechamp A, Ohrnberger M, Perron

V, Sicilia D, Teague D, Vergniault C (2016) InterPACIFIC project: comparison of invasive and

non-invasive methods for seismic site characterization, Part II: Inter-comparison between

surface-wave and borehole methods. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 82:241254

Glerce Z, Abrahamson NA (2011) Site-specific spectra for vertical ground motion. Earthquake

Spectra 27(4):10231047

Hardin BO, Drnevich VP (1972) Shear modulus and damping in soils: design equations and

curves. JSoil Mech Found Div ASCE 98(SM6):667692

Ishihara K (1996) Soil behaviour in earthquake geotechnics, Oxford Engineering Science Series.

Oxford University Press, Oxford, p342

Nakamura Y (1989) A method for dynamic characteristics estimation of subsurface using micro-

tremor on the ground surface, Quarterly Report Railway Technical Research Institute, 301,

2533, Tokyo, Japan

Ordaz M, Singh SK, Arciniega A (1994) Bayesian attenuation regressions: an application to

Mexico City. Geophys JInt 117:335344

Pecker A (2005) Maximum ground surface motions in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses.

JEarthq Eng 9(4):125

Perez A, Jaimes MA, Ordaz M (2009) Spectral attenuation relations at soft sites based on existing

attenuation relations for rock sites. JEarthq Eng 13(2):236251

Rgnier J, Cadet H, Bonilla LF, Bertrand E, Semblat JF (2013) Assessing nonlinear behaviour of

soils in seismic site response: statistical analysis on KiK-net strong-motion data. Bull Seismol

Soc Am 103(3):17501770

Renault P (2009) PEGASOS/PRP Overview. Joint ICTP/IAEA advanced workshop on earthquake

engineering for nuclear facilities. Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics,

Trieste, Italy

Rodriguez-Marek A, Rathje E, Bommer J, Scherbaum F, Stafford PJ (2014) Application of single-

station sigma and site-response characterization in a probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis for a

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SESAME (2004) European research project WP12, Guidelines for the implementation of the H/V

spectral ratio technique on ambient vibrations measurements, processing and interpretation

Deliverable D23.12. European Commission Research General Directorate Project No.

EVG1-CT-2000-00026 SESAME

Chapter 6

Seismic Hazard Computation

This section deals with the seismic hazard computation process. It should be noted

that, in cases where the seismic hazard to be calculated includes site-specific soil

amplifications, this process may include two steps: hazard calculation for reference

rock conditions and subsequent site response analysis to combine the local soil

response with the rock hazard (see Sect. 5.2).

In large projects, the teams in charge of the development of the Ground Motion

(GM) models (SIGMA WP2) and of the Seismic Source (SS) models (SIGMA

WP1 and WP4) are often different from the Hazard Calculation Team (HCT).

For this reason, it is vital for the projects success to establish good communica-

tion and interaction between the HCT and the model developers (Seismic Source

Characterization- SSC, and Ground Motion Characterization- GMC, teams) to

ensure full agreement between the model finally implemented in the PSHA soft-

ware and the models developed by the SSC and GMC teams.

It is desirable, and of great benefit for the project, that the SSC and GMC teams

produce Hazard Input Documents (HIDs) to be provided to the HCT (Ameri

2015). The HID provides a list of input parameters required for the PSHA calcu-

lation within the project. The final HID should provide sufficient information to

the HCT to build the input to the SSC and GMC logic tree in the hazard code for

PSHA calculations, and to avoid any non-unique interpretation. Several interac-

tions between the GMC-SSC teams and the HCT may be required in order to

refine the HID and to verify that consensus is reached on all the necessary input

parameters to the software.

A. Pecker et al., An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Geotechnical,

Geological and Earthquake Engineering 42, DOI10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5_6

120 6 Seismic Hazard Computation

requirements related to software qualification were formally included in interna-

tional guides (e.g. IAEA, SSG-9, USNRC RG 1.208). Thus, it is crucial to

develop verification and validation plans to guarantee the users and end-users

that the calculations performed with the software are reliable. Such Quality

Assurance (QA) documents can also be available from previous studies for par-

ticular software (e.g., Thomas etal. 2010). It is, in any case, good practice to

identify the capabilities of the selected software and the potential limitations in

the application to the current project. Such limitations shall be identified early in

the project to allow adopting another software if necessary and to verify that the

software is flexible enough for integration of new calculation methods or for

reducing the calculation time. If documentation on the software V&V is not

available or judged insufficient, simple tests should be performed in order to

verify the results for typical applications of concern for the project.

The different steps involved in a PSHA (SSC, GMC and SRC) are often perceived

as separate tasks that are finally combined into a unique logic tree at the stage of the

hazard calculations. However, this perspective should be avoided as a number of

obvious interfaces exist between all these tasks, and because the true inputs from

SSC, GMC and SRC should be correctly reflected in the hazard calculation model.

These interface issues are addressed in Sect. 2.6 and Chap. 7.

Several PSHA software packages have been developed in the last decades. Some of

them are licensed products and others are completely open-source. The choice of

the PSHA software is not a trivial issue and it should be oriented on the basis of the

specific needs of the project. Moreover, with such a large number of available soft-

ware, the issues related to the reliability and accuracy of hazard results and to the

Quality Assurance protocol become of great importance (e.g., Bommer etal. 2013).

Another factor which might strongly influence the choice of a PSHA software is the

acceptance by an independent reviewer or a regulatory body. Some of the available

codes have an already accepted nuclear QA programme (e.g. by US NRC), while

some others are mainly used in the academic environment, without appropriate

V&V documentation.

6.3Software Packages 121

FRISK

Features CRISIS EQRM 88M MoCaHAZ MRS NSHMP OHAZ OpenSHA SEISRISK SEISHAZ

Monte Monte

PSHA approach classic classic classic classic classic classic classic classic

Carlo Carlo

Area Yes No Yes No

Limited Yes No No Yes

Volume [3D] Yes No Yes Yes

No

Point Yes No Yes Yes No Yes Yes

Allow to assign a depth

Yes No Yes

distribution to each source

Allow to assign a style-of

Limited Yes No Yes No Yes

faulting to each source

Rupture length & width

Yes No Yes

Modelling

Magnitude Frequency Distribution [MFD]

Gutenberg-Richter Yes

Customize MFD intervals No Yes No No No Yes No Yes Yes No

Built-in Yes No Yes

Allow to assign different

GMPEs per seismic source Yes No Yes No Yes

type

Max Ground

Yes No Yes No

Truncation Motion Value

No. of Sigma Yes

Variability Yes

Customizable units Yes No Yes

LOGIC TREE

Allows to define a logic tree Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes

OUTPUT

Hazard Curves Yes No Yes

Uniform Hazard Spectra Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes

M-R Yes Yes

Dis- Yes Yes Yes

M-R-epsilon Yes No No

aggregation No

Geographic No Yes No No

Eq. Scenario /Shake Maps Yes Yes No Yes No

Fig. 6.1 Example of skill matrix for a set of software packages (From Danciu etal. 2010)

terms of their functionalities and features (e.g., Danciu etal. 2010) and in terms of

hazard calculation results (e.g., Thomas etal. 2010; Bommer etal. 2013). A useful

product of the study by Danciu etal. (2010) is what we may call a skill matrix of the

PSHA programs (Fig.6.1). This type of matrix may be explored to assess whether

a particular code has the capabilities to address a specific issue of interest for the

project (e.g., use of leaky or strict source boundaries in which a fault rupture initiat-

ing within a source is allowed to extend outside the source perimeter). In large

projects, such as SIGMA, the PSHA software should be flexible enough to incorpo-

rate the results provided by the model developer on R&D actions initiated by the

project or by the scientific community.

Important results are also provided by studies aiming at comparing the perfor-

mance and accuracy of hazard results calculated using different codes for standard

cases (see, e.g., Thomas etal. 2010). Such tests are extremely useful because they

122 6 Seismic Hazard Computation

provide a well-defined benchmark for testing new codes and to evaluate the perfor-

mances of existing codes for different situations. In the study by Thomas et al.

(2010) the hazard curves calculated for a number of test cases using different soft-

ware packages are compared among each other and, where available, with analyti-

cal solutions. In particular, the comparison with analytical solutions is extremely

important, especially at very low probabilities of exceedance where numerical prob-

lems may arise in the codes.

The consistency of hazard results among different programs was only partially

considered in SIGMA by performing a comparative study between Crisis and

OpenQuake (D4-140). This study has the clear merit of pointing out that different

hazard codes may use different modelling assumptions that result in different haz-

ard estimates. It is thus important to verify that such assumptions are consistent with

the PSHA model that is intended to be implemented. For example, the simulation of

virtual ruptures within area source zones is clearly a topic in which different, and

maybe equally reliable, models can be implemented (e.g., elliptical vs. rectangular

ruptures). Furthermore, the study also pointed out the importance of the validation

and verification protocol especially in terms of implementation of GMPEs. The

approach followed in D4-140 is a good example of the strategy that should be fol-

lowed when comparing hazard programs. The first step focuses on a comparison of

the implementation between SIGMA and OpenQuake of the selected GMPEs for

the French area. The second step concerns the comparison of hazard results obtained

with CRISIS and OpenQuake for simple test cases. Finally, the CRISIS and

OpenQuake hazard results are compared for a simplified version of the SIGMA

PSHA logic tree.

Site response analyses are usually carried out under the assumption of one-

dimensional wave propagation. Equivalent linear ground response modelling is by

far the most commonly utilized procedure in practice (Kramer and Paulsen 2004) as

it requires the specification of well-understood and physically meaningful input

parameters (shear-wave velocity, unit weight, modulus reduction, and damping).

Nonlinear ground response analyses provide a more accurate characterization of the

true nonlinear soil behaviour, but they are seldom used in engineering practice

because they require the specification of input parameters that lack an obvious asso-

ciation with fundamental soil properties and because the sensitivity of the site

response results to these parameters is not well understood. The nonlinear codes

differ essentially by the soil constitutive relationships built in the code and to a

lesser extent by the numerical scheme: finite element (FEM), finite difference

(FDM) or spectral method (SP).

The equivalent linear codes are robust and have been used extensively since the

early seventies. Their main limitation lies in their inability to handle large amplitude

motions because the embedded constitutive relationship (the equivalent linear

6.4Sensitivity Analysis 123

model) is valid only for limited shear strains, typically of the order of twice the

reference shear strain (see Sect. 5.1.4). Codes belonging to this category are

SHAKE91 (Idriss and Sun 1992), EERA (Bardet etal. 2000) and CYBERQUAKE

(Modaressi and Foerster 2000).

It is almost impossible and also not meaningful to list all possible nonlinear soft-

ware. Several of them, belonging to all the categories listed above (FEM, FDM and

SP), have been tested in the PRENOLIN benchmark (Deliverable SINAPS@-2015-

V2-A2-T3-1) and in other benchmarks (Stewart etal. 2008). The most commonly

used codes are DEEPSOIL (Hashash etal.), FLAC (ITASCA), SUMDES (Li etal.

1992), DYNAFLOW (Prevost 2010), OPENSEES (http://opensees.berkeley.edu/),

NL-DYAS (Gerolymos and Gazetas 2005) and DMOD 2000 (Matasovi and

Ordez 2007). Only the last two softwares belong to the finite difference category.

Once again, the merit of each code relies essentially on the capability of the soil

constitutive model to reproduce the main features of the soil behaviour under cyclic

loading but also, as evidenced in the PRENOLIN benchmark, on the qualification

and experience of the users. An important lesson learned from SIGMA is the abso-

lute necessity, before launching a large number of nonlinear calculations, of testing

and validating the constitutive model against laboratory tests.

During a project sensitivity analyses are used to test the impact of the different alter-

natives and to identify, for example, which parameters have a strong impact on the

hazard at the site and may deserve further investigation. In practice, sensitivity anal-

ysis is often used during the course of a project to test alternative branches of the

logic tree or to highlight the part of the model to which the SSC or the GMC teams

should dedicate their efforts. Sensitivity analyses can be conducted to evaluate if a

particular hypothesis should be included in the final logic tree or if its impact on the

hazard at the site is negligible. In this latter case, the initial scientific logic tree can

be simplified, thereby reducing the computational task for the project. Sensitivity

analyses shall be done at a sufficiently early stage of the project to fully take advan-

tage of the results. A sensitivity analysis generally aims at the following

objectives:

measuring the sensitivity of the seismic hazard to the different parameters/inputs

(i.e., those that affect most the results); and

evaluating the contribution of the uncertainties in the input parameters to the

total hazard uncertainties.

Sensitivity analyses were performed for the French and Italian areas of interest

in SIGMA (D4-18, D4-41, D4-29 and D4-94). A dedicated study is documented in

D4-138 for the French area.

124 6 Seismic Hazard Computation

The uncertainties in the seismic hazard and the sensitivity of the hazard to the

different parameters of the model can be measured using different metrics

(D4-138):

distance between hazard curve percentiles (e.g., 1684%): this can be used, for

instance, to compare the hazard from the whole logic tree among different sites

or for different return periods. This metric can also be used to compare the haz-

ard from a reduced logic tree, for example by comparing the distance between

percentiles provided by the logic tree when using two area source models.

ratio between percentiles (e.g. 16/50; 50/84) to appreciate the shape (symmetry)

of the distribution.

distance between mean hazard curves: this can be used, for instance, to compare

the mean hazard curves obtained for different GMPEs.

The sensitivity analysis should be conducted for several return periods and sev-

eral spectral periods (of interest for the project) in order to investigate the variation

of the hazard distribution as a function of the annual frequency of exceedance at

spectral periods consistent with the natural periods of the structure. This is done

because typically the parameters that contribute to the hazard are not the same for

short and long return or structural periods. Similarly, in low to moderate seismic

regions, some parameters, e.g., the maximum earthquake magnitude, Mmax, affect

the seismic hazard more in the low-frequency range than in the high-frequency

range; use of different spectral periods (e.g., PGA and SA at 0.2 s and 1 s) will serve

that purpose.

In D4-138 the results of the sensitivity analysis are presented as Tornado dia-

grams, already introduced in Sect. 3.6.2. These diagrams constitute a compact

graphical representation to summarize the results for a number of tests and for the

two above mentioned metrics. Tornados are constructed first by fixing the return

period of interest (e.g., 10,000 years) and finding in the mean hazard curves the

acceleration corresponding to that return period, then the hazard variations can be

appreciated in two ways:

in terms of Annual Frequency of Exceedance (AFE) compared to the AFE of the

mean acceleration; and

in terms of spectral acceleration compared to the mean spectral acceleration. In

this case the variability can be quantified as percentage variation around the

mean acceleration value (Fig.6.2).

Important information can also be obtained by examining the contribution of

each source zone or fault included in the SSC logic-tree to the hazard at the site (this

is also sometimes called disaggregation by source, although it is not a hazard disag-

gregation, strictly speaking). An example of hazard curves obtained from each

source zone and their contribution to the total hazard at a site is presented in Fig.6.3.

This analysis allows highlighting which seismic sources carry the largest contribu-

tion to the hazard and thus may help to focus on better characterization of, e.g.,

seismicity of the zone, deformation mechanism and so forth.

6.4Sensitivity Analysis 125

Fig. 6.3 Example of hazard contribution by source: hazard curves for each area source (left) and

percentage contribution to the total hazard for two return periods of interest (right)

126 6 Seismic Hazard Computation

Fig. 6.4 Example of M-R-Epsilon (number of sigmas) hazard disaggregation for spectral accel-

eration at 0.5Hz (left) and 20Hz (right)

of magnitude, distance, and values of other random variables (e.g., epsilon = the

number of standard deviations of the ground motion distribution) defining seismic

events that contribute to a selected seismic-hazard level (McGuire 1995; Bazzurro

and Cornell 1999). The disaggregation process is carried out by evaluating the fre-

quency of occurrence of seismic events with different combinations of magnitude,

distance, and other random variables that contribute to the selected target seismic-

hazard level (McGuire 1995) or that lead to exceedance of the selected target

seismic-hazard level (Bazzurro and Cornell 1999). A higher frequency of occur-

rence of seismic events defined by a particular combination of values of the random

variables describing possible seismic events is an indication that such identified

events are the most likely to contribute to the selected target seismic-hazard level.

Therefore, the identified events can be used as scenario events for assessing both

new and existing engineered structures and infrastructures. For example, if the tar-

get seismic-hazard level of interest represents a value of the structural design

response spectrum at the fundamental natural vibration period of a designed struc-

ture, the identified scenario events can be used as an aid in selecting ground-motion

records for checking the adequacy of the seismic design (see Sect. 6.7).

Magnitude-distance-epsilon disaggregation is routinely performed in PSHA

studies and many software programs include such functionality. Figure6.4 shows

an example of M-R-epsilon disaggregation. The disaggregation is used to determine

the controlling earthquakes in terms of magnitude, distance and , which is usually

used as guidance to select or develop time histories for engineering purposes and at

appropriate annual frequencies of exceedance. Epsilon disaggregation provides

information on the contributing ground motions at the site in terms of the standard

6.6Additional Engineering Output Parameters 127

deviation of the GMPEs. This information may be useful to evaluate the coherence

and consistency of the earthquake scenarios when deterministic seismic hazard

assessment in conducted to control the PSHA results. It can also be used to depict

the contribution of significant outliers to the total hazard, when the hazard appears

to be controlled by the higher values.

(defined using the response of elastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems).

Alternative intensity measures (IMs) are proposed in the literature that attempt to be

more closely related to the damage potential of an earthquake.

Some of them are amplitude-based (Peak Ground Velocity), duration-based

[Arias Intensity, Cumulative Absolute Velocity (EPRI 1988), Standardized

Cumulative Velocity (EPRI 1991)] or frequency response-based [Effective Peak

acceleration (ATC 1978), Acceleration Spectral Intensity (Von Thun etal. 1988),

Averaged pseudo-spectral intensity (Bojorquez and Iervolino 2011)].

In WP5, the SIGMA project investigated the respective merits and performance

of existing and new proposed IMs for estimating the damage to structures and to

non-structural components (NCS). A new simple and efficient intensity measure

accounting for non-linear structural behaviour (De Biasio etal. 2014) and for proba-

bilistic assessment of the acceleration demand of non-structural components (De

Biasio etal. 2015) was proposed.

In a first step, a new IM, named Relative Average Spectral Acceleration (ASAR),

is defined as a simple function of the fundamental frequency of the structure, of the

reduced fundamental frequency of the damaged structure and of the spectral pseudo-

acceleration between the two frequencies. Extensive tests, comprehensive compara-

tive studies, statistical analyses based on recorded data from the RESORCE database

(SIGMA WP2) and finite element simulations demonstrate that this new IM, with a

reduction value R of 40% (ASA40), performs well compared to most of existing

IMs and constitutes a promising engineering parameter to conduct performance-

based seismic design. Based on a similar approach, a second parameter, namely

Equipment-Relative Average Spectral Acceleration (E-ASA67) is proposed by De

Biasio etal. (2015) to efficiently predict the acceleration demand to non-structural

components.

With the objective to further implement the ASAR parameter in probabilistic risk

assessment, a GMPE appropriate for the prediction of ASA40 was developed using

the RESORCE strong ground motion database. Koufoudi etal. (2015) proposed a

ASA40 prediction equation, with a domain of validity, while limited in the low

magnitude range (Mw from 5.5 to 7.6), covers an appropriate distance range (<200

km) and spectral periods (0.014 s), that make this new GMPE a worthy candidate

for future probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic risk analysis. However, these

aspects were not implemented during the project.

128 6 Seismic Hazard Computation

Proper selection of input ground motions for linear and non-linear seismic analyses

of structures and soil systems has become one of the leading topics of research in

earthquake engineering. According to recent trends, as also recognized by the ASCE

recommendations both for buildings and other structures (ASCE/SEI 7-10) and for

nuclear power plants (ASCE/SEI 43-05), the set of input accelerograms should have

some basic properties that may be summarized as follows:

they should come from records of real earthquake events approaching, in terms

of magnitude, distance and site conditions, the conditions that mostly affect seis-

mic hazard for the specific return period;

the average value of response spectra of the input accelerograms should closely

approach the target UHRS (within a range that ASCE 43-05 recommends to be

from 10% to +30%);

a moderate scaling of accelerograms is generally accepted to improve the spec-

tral matching with the UHRS; and

such spectral matching in terms of average spectrum is recommended over a suf-

ficiently wide period range to constrain not only the spectral ordinate at the fun-

damental period of the structure, but the spectral shape as well (e.g., Baker and

Cornell 2006; Haselton etal. 2011).

For structural systems (see e.g., ASCE/SEI 7-10) the latter requirement is typi-

cally introduced to account for the sensitivity of nonlinear structural response to

spectral ordinates at periods larger than the fundamental one (lengthening of the

periods due to damage development), and for the higher modes contribution at

shorter periods. For systems possibly involving nonlinear soil structure interaction

effects, the requirement may even be more stringent, because soil response is gov-

erned by a wide range of frequencies and not by a narrow band around the funda-

mental period of the structure. In the latter case the ASCE/SEI 43-05 recommends

considering the whole frequency range 0.225Hz.

There is no standard method to select acceleration time histories to fit a pre-

scribed target spectrum; the ideal case being the selection of real accelerograms

recorded in seismic conditions close to the target ones, e.g., based on the magnitude,

distance and epsilon coming from the disaggregation of the PSHA at rock. Different

approaches have been proposed for such an optimum selection, although in practi-

cally all cases the accelerograms initially selected are more or less significantly

modified by scaling procedures to improve the fit with the target spectrum.

In D3-96 for the site response analyses performed for sites in the Po plain, the

approach for time-histories selection relies on the following ingredients (Smerzini

etal. 2014):

6.7Selection ofTime Histories 129

relevant for seismic hazard studies in Italy, obtained in stations with good seis-

mic site characterization, in most cases provided by the VS30; and

a software tool for automatic selection of strong-motion records compatible on

average with a target spectrum, within a prescribed period range and a prescribed

tolerance.

In a second complementary step of the input motion selection procedure, a

spectrally matched set of accelerograms is created. Starting from the previous

selection, a scaling procedure in the frequency domain is applied. Namely, a correc-

tion factor for the Fourier spectrum of a prescribed accelerogram is calculated based

on the ratio of the response spectrum (RS) of the accelerogram, with respect to the

target one. Such a correction factor is applied to scale iteratively the amplitude of

the Fourier spectrum of the accelerogram, while keeping the same phase as the

original one, until its RS fits the target one. The procedure is similar to that proposed

by Shahbazian and Pezeshk (2010).

Contrary to other spectral matching approaches, since the seed real accelero-

grams have a broadband average spectral compatibility and are also reliable in the

long period range, the frequency scaling does not usually imply a significant modi-

fication of the original record, neither in terms of acceleration, nor of velocity or

displacement.

In D4-153 different sets of time-histories were selected for linear, equivalent

linear and nonlinear site response analyses at two selected sites. Two methods are

applied for the selection and modifications. One set is selected following the

approach employed in D3-96 above. The other procedure is much simpler and does

not involve any spectral matching. The motions are searched within the RESORCE

database (Akkar etal. 2014) according to magnitude-distance hazard disaggrega-

tion and site conditions. Then a linear scaling is performed such that five motions

are scaled to match, in an average sense, the low-frequency (LF) part (above 0.20.3

s) of the target UHS and five are scaled to match the high-frequency (HF) part

(below 0.20.3 s). The scaling factors are between 0.2 and 2.

As indicated in Sect. 5.4.2.1, the spectral matching technique has the advantage

of reducing the uncertainty when broadband spectral matching of the records to the

target spectrum is achieved. Furthermore, results obtained in SIGMA seem to indi-

cate that when using SAFs to calculate ground surface response spectrum the choice

of the set of time histories is not of paramount importance (Sect. 5.3) at least for the

HyS approach.

Jayaram et al. 2011; Carlton and Abrahamson 2014), has gained a growing rele-

vance. In the framework of Seismic Probabilistic Safety Analysis (S-PSA) for

130 6 Seismic Hazard Computation

nuclear power plants, the selection of relevant ground motions is the key step for

defining the seismic load input for structural analysis. A classical method for struc-

tural analysis in S-PSA is the use of UHS, through generation of spectrum-

compatible synthetic time histories. The conditional spectrum (CS) approach aims

to avoid the conservatism of the UHS method. The use of such an approach has been

investigated in D5-141.

From the point of view of the seismic hazard computation it is important to know

which approach will be used to select the time histories in order to produce all the

necessary results for its application. The main outputs typically provided are the

UHS at the selected return periods and the magnitude-distance hazard disaggrega-

tion for the selected return periods and intensity measures (e.g., PGA and SA at 1

s). Hazard disaggregation is necessary to select time histories that are consistent

with the source and propagation properties for the earthquakes that control the haz-

ard at the site. If the CS approach is employed as in D5-141, the HCT needs to

provide also hazard curves for each of the GMPEs used in the logic tree. This infor-

mation is used, together with the GMPEs weights in the logic tree, to calculate dis-

aggregation weights for each GMPE that correspond to the fractional contribution

of that model to the total hazard for a given spectral period and hazard level.

Given the considerable amount of work involved in the CS method, compared to

the other selection methods, and in view of the small sensitivity of the site responses

(SAFs) to the choice of time histories, at least in the HyS methodology imple-

mented in SIGMA, use of the CS method was not further pursued in the framework

of SIGMA.

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Chapter 7

Interfaces Between Subprojects

Interface issues between the seismic source characterization and the ground motion

characterization are usually implicitly handled by the hazard computation.

Nevertheless, the most relevant interface topics, for example the depth distribution

and the distance metric, should be discussed among experts from both sides of the

interface. In the following sections, the interface issues identified as the most impor-

tant for the hazard are discussed briefly.

The key generic interface issues for the SSC and GMC are listed and summa-

rized below:

Consistency of earthquake catalogue with ground-motion models:

The magnitude scale used by the GMPEs (at present mainly Mw) needs to be

consistent with the magnitude definition used in the earthquake catalogue and the

magnitude-frequency distributions in order to avoid additional conversions with

associated uncertainties. The magnitudes in the earthquake catalogue are mainly

based on models of the attenuation of macroseismic intensities. The compilation

of an intensity and ground-motion dataset for earthquakes with both types of data

can be useful for this. Furthermore, although this approach has not been imple-

mented in SIGMA, empirical correlations between the European Macroseismic

Scale (EMS) and spectral acceleration (Sa) can be used to evaluate the regional

variations in the EMS-Sa relations and provide an idea of the underlying uncer-

tainties, which are part of the earthquake catalogue.

Magnitude conversions:

Modern earthquake catalogues use magnitude conversions to convert ML into Mw

and MS into Mw or others. Attention must be paid to the consistency of Mw (and

depth) derived from individual macroseismic data points (for historical earth-

quakes) with Mw derived from records (for instrumental earthquakes). This can

be done from a limited set of calibration events in order to reduce the uncertainties

A. Pecker et al., An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Geotechnical,

Geological and Earthquake Engineering 42, DOI10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5_7

134 7 Interfaces Between Subprojects

related to magnitude conversions and to limit the bias possibly introduced in the

calculation of the activity rates. These conversions should also be checked

against the conversion (if any) used in developing the selected GMPEs. More

recent GMPEs are usually based on Mw so a conversion within the project is not

needed, but there may have been conversions made to develop the databases for

the GMPEs.

Rupture dimensions:

The magnitude-area scaling relations are used in the source characterization and

in the finite fault simulations (FFS). The GMPEs are based on a subset of earth-

quakes with a given area(M) distribution. The area(M) scaling used by the SSC

and GMC should be consistent. Modern databases include estimates of the rup-

ture dimensions and can be used to quantify the area-magnitude relation implicit

in the GMPEs. The area(M) scaling for the NGA dataset is consistent with the

classical area(M) models, but the area(M) model used in the finite fault simula-

tion is inconsistent with larger areas in the FFS; e.g. some FFS approaches have

unconventional area(M) models which should be discussed between the SSC

and GMC teams.

Distance conversions:

Distance conversions may be necessary depending on the source-to-site distance

metric used by the selected GMPEs. Ideally, a distance conversion is avoided or

is directly addressed in the hazard code using the native distance measures of the

ground-motion models. For the reliability of the hazard estimates it is very

important to have a consistent definition of distance metrics (see also Bommer

and Akkar 2012). Today, with some GMPEs making use of the depth to the top

of the rupture, this has become even more relevant as the hazard computed from

near-field sources is sensitive to differences in the distance measures.

Distance extrapolation:

Even if rarely the case in European regions, it may happen that the SSC includes

sources out to 500 km, while ground-motion models were usually only defined

up to 200300km. In consequence, the ground-motion models need to be defined

or extrapolated out to 500km. Most of the time, this does not have a significant

effect on the hazard, but should be addressed for consistency.

Style-of-faulting and dip definitions:

The SSC defines the style-of-faulting categories by dip whereas the GMC usu-

ally uses rake. These different definitions of style-of-faulting and dip need to be

consistent. The range of dips in the ground-motion dataset should be checked for

consistent with the dips for the SSC style-of-faulting classes. Experts can assign

different weights to the different fault styles for each seismic source. Usually, dip

angles are associated with these faulting styles in these particular seismic sources

and uncertainty in this parameter can be introduced in the form of alternative dip

angles. For example, it should be made clear whether composite fault mecha-

nism (e.g., transtension) can be handled by the hazard software and how this is

done. In the presence of zones with unknown style-of-faulting it should be

decided how this will be modelled in the GM logic tree.

7.2 GMC andSRC Interfaces 135

Reducing Mmin:

In the past, most hazard calculations were done using a Mmin of 5. Depending on

the project requirements, the hazard calculation may want to use a minimum

magnitude of 4.5 or even lower when a CAV filtering approach is applied or to

check the PSHA outputs against observations in regions with moderate activity.

For the SSC, there is no issue with reducing Mmin. For the GMC, the available

ground-motion models may not extrapolate well to smaller magnitudes. In this

case, the ground-motion models will need to be adjusted for smaller magnitudes

using the local ground-motion data as a constraint. The latest GMPEs [like NGA-

West2 and some GMPEs developed within SIGMA WP2: Ameri (D2-131) and

Drouet and Cotton (2015)] have been developed with data down to magnitude 3

and thus, can often be directly used, but the characteristics of the local ground-

motion data should always be compared to the lower magnitude data used by the

GMPE developers in order to identify potential regional differences.

Mmax:

In a limited number of European seismic regions, the Mmax values from the SSC

can be as high as magnitude 8. The ground-motion models need to be checked

regarding appropriate extrapolation to magnitude 8.

Depth Distribution of Earthquakes in the Study Region

The earthquake focal depth distributions in the study region should be deter-

mined, as they can be very different depending on the tectonic setting. This, of

course, requires acquisition of high quality data over a sufficiently long time

period. Depth is an important parameter for those GMPEs using rupture dis-

tance, as it affects the distance computation. Thus, this parameter should be dis-

cussed among the experts in charge of the SSC and GMC in order to have all the

necessary background information to adopt a consistent definition.

For the modelling, different magnitude-dependent depth distributions might

be adopted, implicitly reflecting the uncertainty of this parameter. Thus, the

hypocentral depth distribution can be: trapezoidal, triangular (a special form of

trapezoidal distribution), truncated/non-truncated normal and multiple uniform

(histogram) distributions. Similarly, a magnitude-dependent depth distribution

may be appropriate where the largest events cannot occur in the shallower part of

the seismogenic layer.

between the ground motion characterization on rock and the site/soil response char-

acterization (SRC). This interface becomes relevant once the hazard evaluation is

split into the evaluation of GMPEs only up to the bedrock level and then adding the

site-specific soil response on top to reach a sub-surface layer or the surface. In case

the GMPEs are evaluated directly up to the surface this interface, of course, does not

exist in the described manner. In SIGMA both approaches have been investigated

136 7 Interfaces Between Subprojects

and one of the conclusions was that there is a potential benefit in separating the

GMC on rock and the site-specific soil amplification in order to reduce in each area

the associated uncertainties. The key issues that have to be addressed in order to

avoid double counting of uncertainties are:

Partition of aleatory variability;

Host-to-target conversions and consistency with site amplification models;

Maximum ground motion; and

V/H models.

It should be mentioned that the maximum ground motion truncation models are

handled differently when separating the rock and soil ground motions. For both, the

same empirical database might be evaluated and used for the development of the

individual models. In general, there are no problems. It is hard to define an upper

limit to rock ground motion, especially in very hard rock conditions. On the other

hand, there is more empirical data available for soil and based on the geotechnical

soil properties, physical limits exist.

In the following, the common key interface issues between GMC and SRC are

briefly discussed.

A clear definition of the reference bedrock level and properties is necessary, as

this is the handover between the rock hazard and the soil response. Seismologists

see the bedrock as the geological base rock (generally the bottom of the sedimen-

tary column), while engineers are used to the practical engineering bedrock as

defined in construction standards. Furthermore, there are different interpretations

of rock (e.g. soft, stiff, hard and very hard), which can be clarified by introduc-

ing, e.g., VS30 as a criterion. This also implies checking the consistency of the

rock velocity profiles at the target site with the rock profiles for the GMPE data-

sets (see Chap. 4).

For soft rock conditions, the ratio of spectral acceleration to PGA will reach 1 at

about 4050Hz as opposed to hard rock sites, where this ratio is reached at about

100Hz.

Reducing Mmin to 4.5 or lower requires the ground-motion models to be appli-

cable through adjustments for M < 5 and that the extrapolation of non-linear

effects (if any) to 4.5 or lower is checked.

Avoiding double counting of site amplification variability due to input rock

ground motions and uncertainty in the soil: The aleatory variability of site ampli-

fication (between sites with the same VS30 and within a single site for different

input motions) is included in the GMC on rock if the traditional standard devia-

tions for GMPEs are used. It is also included in the epistemic uncertainty of the

site profile for the SRC and in the randomness of amplification from different

input time histories. The focus here is on the variability due to the use of input

time histories for rock ground motions applied at the bedrock level. There are

some alternative approaches to address this potential double counting, which

have been investigated and applied for SIGMA (see Sect. 5.4). Nowadays, there

is a trend for having the GMC remove the epistemic part by switching to a

7.3 Single-Station Sigma 137

s ingle-station sigma approach and having the SRC not add the aleatory variabil-

ity from different input time histories for the linear range of input ground motions

and to apply just the median amplification for site response. Furthermore, as

done also in SIGMA, there is also the alternative to use time histories tightly

matched to the rock UHS.Vertical aleatory variability: The GMC includes addi-

tional aleatory variability for the vertical ground motion components. The SRC

needs to evaluate the value of this uncertainty so that site response experts can

evaluate the effect on the vertical aleatory models. As the vertical component

was not part of SIGMA, the latter has not been an issue within the project.

Other interface issues to be considered are

The site response models incorporate non-linear effects. The ground-motion

models used by the GMC also include non-linear effects. These non-linear

effects should be consistent with the application. In case the reference rock con-

ditions are greater than 700 m/s, the non-linearity in the ground-motion model

will be very small. The differences in the non-linear models between GMC and

SRC will, therefore, not have a significant effect.

There are 2D and 3D effects in the site response models. Some of the variability

due to 2D and 3D effects is captured in the GMC aleatory terms. It is not clear

how much double counting exists due to this issue. This should be explored

depending on the topographic and near-surface geological configurations in the

study region.

Frequency content of rock ground motions: The site response usually uses times

histories to define the input rock motion. The consistency of the frequency con-

tent (spectral shape) of the Fourier spectra of the input rock motions used by

SRC with that from the GMC model needs to be checked.

Host-to-target parameter (Kappa) for input rock motion: The frequency content

characterized by the GMC for the input rock motion implies some Kappa values.

The site response input motions should be developed accordingly (see Sect. 4.3).

In terms of the interface between GMC and SRC, the use of single-station sigma

removes the effect of site-to-site differences in the average amplification from the

rock sigma, but the variability of the soil amplification (due to different rock input

time histories, for example) is still included in the single-station rock sigma values.

The common empirical datasets used to estimate sigma are dominated by ground

motions in the linear range, which originated mainly from weak motions. So, the

soil site amplification variability for linear response is mainly included in the rock

site single-station sigma. When separating the evaluation of rock ground motions

from soil (surface) ground motions the effects, if there is potential nonlinearity in

the soil, need to be addressed. The site amplification variability for cases with highly

nonlinear soil site response is not represented in the rock site single-station sigma.

138 7 Interfaces Between Subprojects

Thus, if high levels of shaking within the soil are expected for the given site, an

additional aleatory variability on top of the epistemic considerations can be included

in the SRC part to cover those effects, or it can be explicitly covered in the SRC

through consideration of nonlinear models.

The use of single-station sigma requires that the epistemic uncertainty in the site-

specific amplification be captured in the SRC logic tree model through alternative

models for the VS profile and the non-linear properties, as illustrated already in

Chap. 5.

This concept applies to both the horizontal and the vertical ground motion

components.

Even though in SIGMA the vertical component of hazard was not treated, some

considerations and issues are briefly summarized here for the interested reader.

In the GMC, the rock V/H ratios are evaluated and weighted separately from the

horizontal median models. In the rock site hazard calculation, the V/H ratios are

applied to the combined fractiles of the hazard curves for the horizontal

component.

In the SRC, two approaches can be used to provide V/H ratios and amplification

factors, which scale the horizontal rock ground motion to vertical soil ground

motion: (1) V/H ratios for soil and amplification factors for horizontal motion are

developed by the SRC experts and are combined, and (2) V/H ratios for rock by the

SRC experts and amplification factors for vertical motion by the SRC experts are

combined. For the first approach, the different soil V/H ratios are combined on a

per-model basis with the model-specific horizontal motion amplification. For the

second approach, the V/H rock ratios of all models are combined with the SRC

vertical motion amplification factors. Both approaches cover horizontal-to-vertical

motion scaling and amplification. The results of both approaches are combined into

a single soil input for the target site. This soil input is used to compute the vertical

soil motion hazard on the basis of the horizontal rock motion hazard, which is

always the full (all fractiles and complete SSC and GMC models) horizontal

motion rock hazard.

The second approach mentioned above is similar to the computation of the verti-

cal motion rock hazard in that the full horizontal motion rock hazard is combined

with all GMC V/H models, i.e. there is no correlation between (but full combination

of) the GMC-specific rock hazard subsets and the GMC expert-specific V/H rock

ratios.

References 139

References

Bommer JJ, Akkar S (2012) Consistent source-to-site distance metrics in ground-motion predic-

tion equations and seismic source models for PSHA.Earthquake Spectra 28:115

Drouet S, Cotton F (2015) Regional stochastic GMPEs in low-seismicity areas: scaling and alea-

tory variability analysis application to the French Alps. Bull Seismol Soc Am

105(4):18831902

Chapter 8

Probabilistic Seismic Testing andUpdating

ofSeismic Hazard Results

Considering the high uncertainties in PSHA and the importance of PSHA results for

seismic design and retrofit, it is pertinent to focus on the issue of consistency check-

ing of the PSHA results. In the last decade several approaches to test PSHA results

have been published (e.g. Stirling and Petersen 2006; Stirling and Gerstenberger

2009, 2010; Stirling 2012; Mucciarelli etal. 2008; Humbert and Viallet 2008; Labb

2010; Anderson etal. 2011; Mezcua etal. 2013; Selva and Sandri 2013; Gribovszki

etal. 2013). In addition, several recent opinion papers are encouraging hazard ana-

lysts to carry out tests of PSHA results (e.g. Stein etal. 2011). During the SIGMA

period an international workshop was held in Pavia (NEA 2015) on Testing PSHA

results and Benefit from Bayesian Techniques for Seismic Hazard Assessment

which concluded that a state-of-the-art PSHA should include a testing phase against

any available observation, including any kind of observation and any period of

observation, including instrumental seismicity, historical seismicity and paleoseis-

micity data if available. It should include testing not only against its median hazard

estimates but also against their entire distribution (percentiles).

Testing applications have been conducted in different countries (United States,

New Zealand, Italy and France). The techniques rely on various statistical assump-

tions but any testing technique must deal with the available observation time win-

dow. Considering the observation time window in seismology testing (approximately

80 years for instrumental networks in California and 45 years in Europe, and several

centuries for historical data), and the return periods of interest in engineering seis-

mology (in the order of several hundreds to thousands of years), the comparison of

observations and predictions is challenging.

Recent literature shows that PSHA models can be evaluated using different types

of observations, such as intensities, synthetic accelerations (converted from intensi-

ties or predicted from an earthquake catalogue and a ground-motion model), and

recorded accelerations at instrumented sites.

In the framework of SIGMA, WP4 specific actions were undertaken to develop

new methods for comparing the ground-motion distribution with observations, in

A. Pecker et al., An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Geotechnical,

Geological and Earthquake Engineering 42, DOI10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5_8

142 8 Probabilistic Seismic Testing andUpdating ofSeismic Hazard Results

25

20

N SITES 15

10

0

23 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 134

Accelerations (cm/sec2)

Fig. 8.1 Testing the probabilistic seismic hazard model against accelerometric data in France:

predicted and observed number of exceedance. Blue curves: median and percentiles 2.5 and 97.5

of the predicted distributions, red stars: observed number of sites. Results for the AFPS2006 PSH

model, considering a range of acceleration thresholds (47 rock sites, total time window 485 years)

(From D4-75)

particular with the objective of implementing and testing methods to clearly under-

stand their potential as well as their limits and accuracy.

Overall, the testing of PSHA models and results is an exercise that is worth

pursuing.

8.1 P

SHA Testing Using Acceleration andMacroseismic

Intensity Data

using accelerometer data is discussed in SIGMA Deliverable D4-75. Three hazard

models for France are tested against a set of French accelerometric records (RAP

network, http://rap.resif.fr/). Two of the models (MEDD2002 and AFPS2006) pro-

vide hazard estimates for the whole metropolitan territory, while the third

(SIGMA2012, D4-41) focuses on Southern France. The method is based on com-

paring predicted exceedance rates for a set of ground motion levels with observed

ones at a set of sites (see Fig.8.1). In order to reduce the influence of site conditions,

which might considerably change the observed ground motion level, only record-

ings from rock sites are included in the analysis. Models are tested against different

datasets, true-recorded accelerations and synthetic amplitudes based on an earth-

quake catalogue combined with a GMPE.

The PSHA testing using recorded accelerometer data presented in D4-75 is

promising, although it suffers from a limited applicability to the French context due

to the relatively moderate seismicity, which does not allow for testing significant

8.1 PSHA Testing Using Acceleration andMacroseismic Intensity Data 143

issue is related to site response, which is typically not considered in the testing pro-

cess by selecting only rock sites. However, the site classes of several French stations

are not well known, which increases the uncertainties in the process.

The authors conducted an application of the same approach to Turkey in order to

test PSHA for larger ground-motion levels (see Tasan et al. 2014). The SHARE

hazard model (Woessner etal. 2015) is tested against Turkish strong-motion data.

Two critical issues are identified: (1) the completeness of the recorded data at each

station and the need to identify potential gaps in the recordings, and (2) the fact that

most accelerometer stations are on soil sites while the hazard results are for rock

sites. To solve this problem, PGA is converted into rock PGA using empirical site-

amplification functions based on VS30 at the site. This process carries, however, large

uncertainties that are not considered because VS30 is only a proxy of the real site

amplification and only average site amplification can be estimated. The results

show that the observed rates of exceedance at different sites are well within the

bounds of the predicted distribution for accelerations between ~0.1 and 0.4 g. For

higher levels no conclusion can be drawn. Despite the previous uncertainties, the

method offers a rationale to assess a PSHA model at a 475-year return period.

In order to overcome the limitations related to the short lifetime of accelerometer

stations, macroseismic intensity observations can be considered as an alternative, as

they are available on a much longer period of time. Moreover, since macroseismic

intensities are not directly used as input in standard PSHA models issues related to

the independence between the model and the data used to test it may be avoided.

This approach is pursued in D4-118 and the follow-up study D4-154 that pro-

poses a method to compare PSHA results with historical information on damage

obtained from macroseismic intensity observations. The method consists in con-

verting the intensities into PGA by means of fragility curves to obtain estimates of

the PGA corresponding to the level of observed damage. Thus, the method requires

a procedure to convert records of historical observations into equivalent PGA esti-

mates. Such a conversion process carries uncertainties that are taken into account by

means of a logic tree approach (see Fig. 8.2). The empirically-derived rates of

exceedance are compared to the model derived estimates. The method was applied

to south-eastern France.

The approach proposed in D4-118 suffers from very large uncertainties in the

process of inverting the fragility functions. Such large variability in empirical PGA

exceedance estimates prevents, in fact, the results of this methodology from being

of practical use. In that respect, it should be mentioned that the methodology pro-

posed by Labb (2010) does not require any conversion from macroseismic intensi-

ties into accelerations nor does it require inversion of the fragility curves; however,

this approach was not tested in SIGMA.A possible improvement, which was imple-

mented in SIGMA, consists of including recorded accelerations in the procedure to

better constrain the PGA distributions. In particular, this will improve the quality of

estimation for lower values of PGA, whose rates of occurrence are likely to be

underestimated by operating on the macroseismic database. Other important con-

cerns are: (a) the treatment of the incompleteness of the catalogue, and the fact that

144 8 Probabilistic Seismic Testing andUpdating ofSeismic Hazard Results

large amount of damage is caused by induced events such as slope failures, and (b)

the need to integrate site response in this method.

The limitations found in D4-118 were considered in D4-154. This continuation

study was intended to respond to the criticisms and to explore several lines of devel-

opment, the most important one being the use for comparison of the mean damage

ratio (Lagomarsino and Giovinazzi 2006) rather than the ground motion itself;

although this latter paper does not address directly PSHA testing it is essential as it

ensures consistency between different fragility curves expressed as function of PGA

or macroseismic intensity. The implementation of the revised method to the south-

east quarter of France, and a complete re-visitation of the macroseismic database

were also included in this work. The method is applied to single sites, aggregated

sites, and at a regional scale. At each scale comparisons with historical data are car-

ried out.

Results for single sites are not promising, as already discussed in D4-118.

However, by using appropriate criteria in the selection of sites to satisfy the assump-

tion of ergodicity (independence, and common distributions), the authors demon-

strate that better comparisons are achieved for aggregated sites and for the regional

scale.

The method proposed in D4-154 is judged to be promising. It will benefit from

additional work to confirm its actual value as a tool to check the consistency of

PSHA analyses. To gain confidence in the methodology, it was suggested in the

project to consider a case study undertaken for a region with more abundant build-

ing damage data.

References 145

does not require any conversion of macro seismic intensities into accelerations, not

does it require inversion of the fragility curves.

D4-139. A Bayesian approach is applied to update the PSHA logic tree based on

observed exceedances of a certain acceleration threshold. This approach differs

from the previous ones because its objective is not to compare observed and pre-

dicted number of exceedances but to use such comparisons in a Bayesian frame-

work in order to modify the logic tree weights. In practice, the logic tree weights of

the branches that are in better agreement with the observations are increased.

The study performed in D4-139 presents a first simplified application of this

approach. It provides the basis for the method and represents an initial step in exam-

ining ways of using additional information to update PSHA results in the French

environment. The strategic choice of concentrating on updating the weights of the

logic tree is appealing and could be made applicable to real cases; but it still requires

additional research and development to reach such a stage.

Further improvements should be considered to extend this approach to a real and

complete case study. In its present form, the following limitations and improve-

ments are identified:

The method considers only one ground-motion threshold level, therefore one set

of new LT weights, to update the entire hazard curve. To be rigorous, since the

set of updated weights changes with the value of the threshold, the updated set of

weights should be calculated for every discrete value of the ground-motion

threshold in the entire range of interest.

The application of the method requires defining criteria to make an appropriate

selection of the prior set of alternative branches, and an appropriate set of prior

weights to the branches.

The updating method should be applied in the spectral acceleration domain and

not only to PGA.This would allow an appreciation of the variability of weights

in the spectral domain and to update the full response spectrum.

References

Anderson JG, Brune JN, Purvance M, Biasi G, Anooshehpoor A (2011) Benefits of the use of

precariously balanced rocks and other fragile geological features for testing the predictions of

probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. In: Faber MH, Kehler J, Nishijima K (eds) Applications

of statistics and probability in civil engineering. Taylor & Francis, London, pp744752

146 8 Probabilistic Seismic Testing andUpdating ofSeismic Hazard Results

Comprehensive investigation of intact, vulnerable stalagmites to estimate an upper limit on

prehistoric horizontal ground acceleration. Recent advances in earthquake engineering and

structural dynamics (VEESD conference), 2830 August, Vienna, Austria

Humbert N, Viallet E (2008) A method for comparison of recent PSHA on the French territory with

experimental feedback. In: Proceedings of 14th world conference on earthquake engineering,

1217 October, Beijing, China

Labb P (2010) PSHA outputs versus historical seismicity; Example of France. In: 14th European

conference on earthquake engineering, August 30September 3, Ohrid, FYROM

Lagomarsino S, Giovinazzi S (2006) Macroseismic and mechanical models for the vulnerability

and damage assessment of current buildings. Bull Earthq Eng 4(4):415443

Mezcua J, Rueda J, Garca Blanco RM (2013) Observed and calculated intensities as a test of a

probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis of Spain. Seismol Res Lett 84(5):772780

Mucciarelli M, Albarello D, DAmico V (2008) Comparison of probabilistic seismic hazard esti-

mates in Italy. Bull Seismol Soc Am 98:26522664

NEA (Nuclear Energy Agency) (2015) Workshop on testing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

results and the benefits of Bayesian techniques, Pavia, Italy, 46 February, NEA/

CSNI/R(2015)15. www.oecd-nea.org

Selva J, Sandri L (2013) Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: combining Cornell-like

approaches and data at sites through Bayesian inference. Bull Seismol Soc Am

103(3):17091722

Stein S, Geller R, Liu M (2011) Bad assumptions or bad luck: why earthquake hazard maps need

objective testing. Seismol Res Lett 82(5):623626

Stirling MW (2012) Earthquake hazard maps and objective testing: the hazard Mappers point of

view. Seism Res Lett 83(2):231232

Stirling M, Gerstenberger M (2009) Development of tests for long-term earthquake ground motion

forecasts in New Zealand, GNS science consultancy report 2009/140. p20, Lower Hutt, NZ

Stirling M, Gerstenberger M (2010) Ground motionbased testing of seismic hazard models in

New Zealand. Bull Seismol Soc Am 100(4):14071414

Stirling M, Petersen M (2006) Comparison of the historical record of earthquake hazard with

seismic-hazard models for New Zealand and the continental United States. Bull Seismol Soc

Am 96:19781994

Tasan H, Beauval C, Helmstetter A, Sandikkaya A, Guguen P (2014) Testing probabilistic seismic

hazard estimates against accelerometric data in two countries: France and Turkey. Geophys

JInt 198(3):15541571

Woessner J, Laurentiu D, Giardini D, Crowley H, Cotton F, Grnthal G, Valensise G, Arvidsson R,

Basili R, Dermicioglu MB, Hiemer S, Meletti C, Musson RW, Rovida AN, Sesetyan K, Stucchi

M (2015) The SHARE consortium, the 2013 European seismic hazard model: jey components

and results. Bull Earthq Eng 13(12):35533596

Chapter 9

Summary andWay Forward

During 5 years SIGMA has not only achieved significant steps forward in the meth-

ods for evaluating seismic hazard at a site, but it also contributed to establishing a

strong network of academic institutions, researchers and engineering companies

that will survive after the project ends. The overall organisation of the project fos-

tered very lively and fruitful discussions between all participants, including with the

members of the Scientific and Steering Committees.

Despite the amount of effort devoted to SIGMA, significant endeavours remain

to be made to increase the reliability of seismic hazard predictions and to better

understand and constrain the associated uncertainties. In fact, not all topics related

to SHA have been covered during the course of the project, either because they were

discarded after its start or because new topics emerged during the 5 year programme.

Without repeating all the achievements and lessons learned, SIGMA clearly stressed

the importance of collecting data to feed and constrain the models: a uniform seis-

mic catalogue is essential to better characterize the seismic source models, the

RESORCE database is useful for developing GPMEs adapted to the seismotectonic

context of the considered regions and site characterization through field instrumen-

tation is mandatory to classify the site, to evaluate the site response and to imple-

ment the single-station sigma approach. All these improvements in empirical

knowledge contribute to a better estimation of the hazard and characterization of the

epistemic uncertainties.

Aside from these achievements, the following topics were identified as important

and warranting more studies in the future.

More data and studies are needed to better characterize the source models and more

specifically:

A. Pecker et al., An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Geotechnical,

Geological and Earthquake Engineering 42, DOI10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5_9

148 9 Summary andWay Forward

angle, rake, dimensions) and to estimate their activity rates, in a way perhaps

similar to the Italian DISS fault database;

In areas of low to moderate seismicity the recurrence Gutenberg-Richter param-

eters, a and b, carry large uncertainties that should be better constrained, espe-

cially for magnitudes derived from macroseismic observations;

The maximum magnitude associated with each source zone, which has a large

impact on the hazard for long return periods, should be studied from different

perspectives: a physically-based approach relying on scaling relationships related

to fault dimensions, a statistically-based approach like the EPRI Bayesian

method and a model-based approach in connection with the G-R parameters

used to reflect the constraints imposed on the deformation rates. Ideally, these

different approaches must be reconciled.

While an essential product of the SIGMA project has been the development of

RESORCE, this database should be maintained, updated and enriched with addi-

tional parameters such as: fault rupture parameters, natural frequency of record-

ing site f0, , presence of basin effects and so on;

Efforts to develop GMPEs specifically adapted to the European context should

be pursued taking advantage of the RESORCE database;

More research is needed to identify the most appropriate rock/hard rock adjust-

ments to GMPEs, which is a problem typically encountered on exposed rock

sites in SCRs;

Investigations on the nonlinear behaviour of soils under cyclic loading are needed

from both the experimental and numerical viewpoint to answer critical questions

such as: is nonlinear behaviour supported by experimental evidence? Beyond

which threshold amplitude is it necessary to take it into account? What are the

prerequisites and validation steps for a nonlinear constitutive model?

The range of applicability of 2D geometric models for site response analyses

must be ascertained;

The spatial variability in soil characteristics needs to be considered in 2D site

response evaluations;

With the increasing number of available earthquake records, the selection of time

histories for site response analyses should be guided in more detail;

The evaluation of the vertical component of motion at the ground surface is an

issue that deserves further investigation.

9.5 Risk Assessment 149

performed with instrumental data for short return periods (~30 years), with his-

torical seismicity in terms of macroseismic intensities for return periods up to

some hundreds of years, and with paleoseismicity data for very long return peri-

ods (thousands of years). Testing can be made at a site scale where the hazard

should be consistent with the local observations, and at a regional scale where

the hazard should be consistent with the average regional hazard;

Updating of PSHA using Bayesian approaches should be investigated, possibly

beyond the simple updating of weights in the logic trees; however, even in this

simple form, it helps assigning objective weights to the logic tree branches in

place of the experts judgment;

Based on progress made concerning knowledge of faults, a totally different

approach for hazard evaluation based on fault numerical simulations needs to be

investigated. Such finite fault simulations can be developed independently of

GMPEs and are mainly physics-based. Today, GMPEs are still sometimes used

in this context for reference comparison or scaling.

These aspects have barely been touched upon in SIGMA and warrant additional

studies.

Identification of ground motion intensity parameters like ASA40 that could be

good predictors of structural damage and subsequent development of associated

GMPEs that would allow direct probabilistic risk assessment of critical

facilities;

Development of hazard consistent fragility curves for different typologies of

structures (e.g. buildings, industrial facilities), systems and components.

Obviously, the issues listed above are far from representing an exhaustive list of

all topics of interest, but they constitute open questions the answers to which would

greatly contribute to improving hazard estimates and reducing the epistemic uncer-

tainties attached to them.

Annexes

Steering Committee

Catherine BERGE-THIERRY CEA

Paolo CONTRI ENEL

Jean Pierre RZEPKA CEA

Jean Franois SIDANER AREVA

Robert KENNEDY RPK Structural Mechanics Consulting: (USA)

Roger MUSSON British Geological Survey (UK)

Alain PECKER Chairman of Scientific Committee (France)

Rui PINHO GEM Foundation (Italy)

Scientific Committee

(France)

Pierre Yves BARD ISTerre Institut des Sciences de la Terre, Grenoble

(France)

David BAUMONT FUGRO (France)

A. Pecker et al., An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Geotechnical,

Geological and Earthquake Engineering 42, DOI10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5

152 Annexes

(France)

Thierry CAMELBEECK Royal Observatory of Belgium (Belgium)

John DOUGLAS1 BRGM Bureau de Recherche Gologique et Minire

(France)

Ezio FACCIOLI Politecnico di Milano (Italy)

Michel GRANET EOST Ecole et Observatoire des Sciences de la Terre,

Strasbourg (France)

Aybars GURPINAR Consultant (Turkey)

Peter MOCZO University of Bratislava (Slovakia)

Marco MUCCIARELLI University of Potenza (Italy)

Francesca PACOR INGV Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia,

Milano (Italy)

Roberto PAOLUCCI Politecnico di Milano (Italy)

Philippe RENAULT SWISSNUCLEAR (Switzerland)

Jean SAVY SRC Savy Risk Consulting (USA)

Frank SCHERBAUM University of Postdam (Germany)

Gianluca VALENSISE INGV Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia,

Rome (Italy)

Gordon WOO Consultant (UK)

Mirko CORIGLIANO Deputy project manager ENEL (Italy)

WP1: Seismic Source

Leader: Kevin MANCHUEL (EDF)

Co-leader: Mirko CORIGLIANO (ENEL)

WP2: Prediction models

Leader: Paola TRAVERSA (EDF)

Co-leader: Fabrice COTTON (ISTerre)

WP3: Site effects

Leader: Fabrice HOLLENDER (CEA)

Co-leader: Deborah SICILIA (EDF)

WP4: Hazard Model

Leader: Jean-Michel THIRY (AREVA)

Co-leader: Gloria SENFAUTE (EDF)

WP5: Exploitation of Seismic Ground Motion

Leader: F.ALLAIN (EDF)

Co-leader: Stephane GRANGE (3SR, University Joseph Fourier of Grenoble)

1

Annexes 153

SIGMA Partners

BGS (British Geological Survey): www.bgs.ac.uk

BRGM (Bureau de recherches gologiques et minires): www.brgm.fr

C E R E G E (Centre Europen de Recherche et dEnseignement): www.cerege.fr

Comenius University in Bratislava: http://www.uniba.sk

EMSM (European Mediterranean Seismological Centre): www.emsc-csem.org

EOST (Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg): www.eost.u-strasbg.fr

EUCENTRE (European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake): http://

www.eucentre.it/

GEOAZUR: https://geoazur.oca.eu

GEOTER (Gologie Tectonique Environnement et Risques): www.geoter.fr

GEM (Global Earthquake Model), Italy: http://www.globalquakemodel.org/

IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency): www.iaea.org

INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Milano: www.mi.ingv.it

INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma): www.ingv.it

IUSS (Institute for Advanced Study of Pavia): http://www.iusspavia.it/

ISTerre (Institut des Sciences de la Terre): www.isterre.fr

Laboratoire 3S-R (laboratoire Sols, Solides, Structures Risques): www.3s.hmg.

inpg.fr

METU (Middle East Technical University): http://www.metu.edu.tr/

ORB (Observatoire Royal de Belgique): http://www.astro.oma.be

POLIMI (Politecnico di Milano): www.polimi.it

RPK (Structural Mechanics Consulting)

SRC (Savy Risk Consulting): www.savyriskconsulting.com

SWISSNUCLEAR, Switzerland: http://www.swissnuclear.ch

UJF (Universit Joseph Fourier): www.ujf-grenoble.fr

Universit de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: http://www.uvsq.fr

Universit Paul Czanne Aix Marseille: www.univ-cezanne.fr

University of California, Berkeley: http://www.berkeley.edu

University of Potsdam: http://www.uni-potsdam.de

Stphane Drouet: Earthquake Ground-Motion Consultant

Virginia Tech University, USA: www.vt.edu

154 Annexes

Reference database for seismic Akkar S., Sandkkaya M., Bull. Earthquake Eng.,

ground-motion Senyurt M., Azari Sisi A., Ay (2014), 12, 311339

in Europe (RESORCE) B.O., Traversa P., Douglas J.,

Cotton F., LuziL., Hernandez

L, Godey S.

Taxonomy of kappa: a review of Ktenidou O., Cotton F., Seismol. Research Letters

definitions and estimation Abrahamson N., and Anderson J. (2014), 85(1), 135146.

approaches targeted to

applications.

*

Comparisons among the five Douglas J., Akkar S, Ameri G., Bull. Earthquake Eng.

ground-motion models developed Bard PY, Bindi D., Bommer J., (2014), 12, 341358

using RESORCE for the Singh Bora S., Cotton

prediction of response spectral F.,Derras B., Hermkes

accelerations due to earthquakes M.Kuehn N.M.,Luzi L.,

in Europe and the Middle East Massa M., Pacor F., Riggelsen

C., Sandkkaya A., Scherbaum

F.,Peter J., Stafford, Traversa P.

Testing Probabilistic Seismic Tasan H., Beauval C., Geophys. J.Int. (2014),

Hazard estimates against Helmstetter C A., Sandikkaya 198, 15541571

accelerometric data in two A., Guguen Ph.

countries: France and Turkey.

*

Towards fully data driven Derras B., Bard P.Y.Cotton F. Bull. Earthquake Eng.

ground-motion prediction models (2014), 12, 495516

for Europe

Site Amplification: Dependency Laurendeau A., Cotton F., Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

on VS30 and 0. Bull. Seism. Soc. Ktenidou O., Bonilla F., (2013), 103 (6),

Am. Hollender F. 31313148

Moderate Earthquake Teleseismic Letort J., Vergoz J., Guilbert J., Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

Depth Estimations: New Methods Cotton F., Sebe O., Cano Y. (2014), 104 (2), 593607.

and Use of the Comprehensive

Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

Organization Network Data

A simple and efficient intensity De Biasio M., Grange S., Earthq. Spectra, (2014),

measure to account for non-linear Dufour F., Allain F., Petre- 30(4), 14031426

structural behaviour Lazar I.

*Pan-European Ground-Motion Bindi D., Massa M., Luzi L., Bull. Earthquake Eng.,

Prediction Equations for the Ameri G., Pacor F., Puglia R., (2014), 12, 391530

Average Horizontal Component Augliera P.

of PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped

PSA at Spectral Periods up to

3.0s using the RESORCE dataset

Annexes 155

The Ferrara thrust earthquakes of Priolo E., Romanelli, Barnaba Annals of Geophysics,

May-June 2012: preliminary site C., Mucciarelli M., (2012), 55(4), 591597

response analysis at the sites of Laurenzano G., DallOlio L.,

the OGS temporary network Abu Zeid N., Caputo R.,

Santarato G., Vignola L., Lizza

C., Di Bartolomeo P.

Recent evolution and challenges Faccioli E. Bull Earthquake Eng

in the Seismic Hazard Analysis (2013), 11(1), 533

of the Po Plain region, Northern

Italy

*Simultaneous Quantification of Hermkes M., Kuehn N.M., Bull. Earthquake Eng.,

Epistemic and Aleatory Riggelsen C. (2014), 12, 449466.

Uncertainty in GMPEs using

Gaussian Process Regression

*

Fourier Spectral and Duration Bora S.S., Scherbaum F., Bull. Earthquake Eng.,

Models for the Generation of Kuehn N., Stafford P. (2014), 12, 467493

Response Spectra which are

Adjustable to Different Source

Propagation and Site Effects

A New Approach to Include Path Dawood H., Rodriguez-Marek A. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.,

Effects in Ground Motion (2013), 103(2B),

Prediction Equations Using the 13601732.

Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake

Aftershocks.

Sensitivity of coda waves to Mayor J., Margerin L., Geophysical Journal

lateral variations of absorption Calvet M. International, (2014),

and scattering: radiative transfer 197(2), 121.

theory and 2-D examples

Source of scatter in : analysis of Van Houtte C., Ktenidou O.J., Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

Christchurch data and Larkin T., Holden C. (2014), 104 (4),

comparison with local ground 18991913.

motion prediction models

Regional Stochastic GMPEs in Drouet S., Cotton F. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

Low-Seismicity Areas: Scaling (2015), 105(4),

and Aleatory Variability 18831902

AnalysisApplication to the

French Alps

A Bayesian methodology applied Keller M., Pasanisi A., Quality Reliability and

to the estimation of earthquake Marcilhac M., Yalamas T., Engineering Intern.

recurrence parameters for seismic Secanell R., Senfaute G. (2014), 30(7), 921933.

hazard assessment

A new, improved and fully Letort J., Guilbert J., Cotton F., Geophys. J.Int. (2015),

automatic method for teleseismic Bondar I., Cano Y., Vergoz J. 201(3), 18341848

depth estimation of moderate

earthquakes (4.5<M<5.5):

application to the Guerrero

subduction zone (Mexico).

Empirical Ground-Motion Koufoudi E., Ktenidou O.-J., Bull. of Earthq. Eng.

Models adapted to a new Cotton F., Dufour F., Grange S. (2015), 13 (12),

intensity measure (ASA40) 36253643

156 Annexes

Uncertainty in PSHA related to Mucciarelli M. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.

the parametrization of historical Sci. (2014), 14,

intensity data 27612765.

Intensity Measures for De Biasio M., Grange S., Earthq. Eng. & Struct.

Probabilistic Assessment of Dufour F., Petre Lazar I., Dyn. (2015), 44(13),

Non-Structural Components Allain F. 22612280.

Acceleration Demand

3D numerical simulations of Chaljub E.; Maufroy E.; Geophys. J.Int. (2015)

earthquake ground motion in Moczo P.; Kristek J.; Hollender 201, 90111

sedimentary basins: testing F.; Bard P.-Y.; Priolo E.; Klin

accuracy through stringent P.; De Martin F.; Zhang Z.;

models Chen X.

Earthquake ground motion in the Maufroy E., Chaljub E., Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

Mygdonian basin, Greece: the Hollender F., Kristek J., Moczo (2015), 105 (3),

E2VP verification and validation P., Klin P., Priolo E., Iwaki A., 13981418

of 3D numerical simulation up to Iwata T., Etienne V., De Martin

4Hz F., Theodoulidis N.P.,

Manakou M., Guyonnet-

Benaize C., Pitilakis K.,

Bard P.-Y.

Mw estimation from crustal Denieul M., Sbe O., Cara M., Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

coda-waves recorded on analog Cansi Y. (2015), 105(2A),

seismograms 831849.

*

SiHex: Nouveau catalogue de Cara M., Cansi Y., Schlupp A., Bull. Soc. gol. France

sismicit instrumentale pour la Arroucau P., Bthoux N. etal (2015), t. 186, no 1, 319

France mtropolitaine.

Evaluation of probabilistic Faccioli E., Paolucci R., Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

site-specific seismic hazard Vanini M. (2015), 105 (5),

methods and associated 27872807

uncertainties, with applications in

the Po plain, Northern Italy

Tectonic and geomorphic Billant etal. Tectonophysics (2015),

analyses of the Belledonne 659, 3152

border fault and its extension,

Western Alps

On the Relationship between Bora S.S., Scherbaum F., Submitted for publication

Fourier and 1 Response Spectra, Kuehn N., Stafford P. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

2 Implications for the Adjustment

of Empirical Ground-Motion and

3 Prediction Equations (GMPEs)

Development of a Response 1 Bora S.S., Scherbaum F., Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

Spectral Ground-Motion Kuehn N., Stafford P., (2015), 105(4),

Prediction Equation, 2 (GMPE) Edwards B. 21922218.

for Seismic Hazard Analysis

from Empirical Fourier Spectral

and 3 Duration Models

The role of site effects in the Gallipoli M.R., Chiauzzi L., Bull. Earthquake Eng.

comparison between code Stabile T.A., Mucciarelli M., (2014), 12, 22112230

provisions and the near field Masi A., Lizza C., Vignola L.

strong motion of the Emilia 2012

earthquakes

Annexes 157

Understanding the physics of Ktenidou O.-J., Drouet S., Geophys. J.Int. (2015)

kappa and correlating it with site Cotton F., Abrahamson N.N. 203, 678691

characterisation parameters: an

application to Euroseistest.

The Finite-difference Modelling Moczo P., Kristek,J., Galis M. ISBN 978-1-107-02881-4

of Earthquake Motions: Waves Cambridge University

and Ruptures. Press

Squeezing kappa () out of the Ktenidou O.J., Silva W., Submitted for publication

Transportable Array An Darragh R., Abrahamson N.N., Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

example using band-limited data Kishida T.

from Southern Arizona

International benchmark on Regnier J. etal Submitted for publication

numerical simulations for 1D, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

non-linear site response

(PRENOLIN): verification phase

based on canonical cases.

*

Semi-automated procedure for Kishida T., Ktenidou O.-J., Pacific Earthquake

windowing time series and Darragh R., Silva W. Engineering Research

computing Fourier amplitude Center, PEER report

spectra (FAS) for the NGA- 2016/02.

West2 database.

*A methodology for the Ktenidou O.-J., Abrahamson Pacific Earthquake

estimation of kappa () for large N.N., Silva W., Darragh R. Engineering Research

datasets. Example application to Center, PEER report

rock sites in the NGA-East 2016/01.

database and implications on

design motions

InterPACIFIC project: Garofalo F., Foti S., Hollender J. of Soil Dyn. and

comparison of Invasive and F., Bard P.Y., Cornou C., Cox Earthq. Eng. (2016), 82,

noninvasive methods for seismic B.R., Ohrnberger M., Sicilia 222240.

site characterization. Part I: D., Asten M., Di Giulio G.,

Intra-comparison of surface wave Forbriger T., Guillier B.,

methods Hayashi K., Martin A.,

Matsushima S., Mercerat D.,

Poggi V., Yamanaka H..

InterPACIFIC project: Garofalo F., Foti S., Hollender J. of Soil Dyn. and

comparison of Invasive and F., Bard P.Y., Cornou C., Cox Earthq. Eng. (2016), 82,

non-invasive methods for Seismic B.R., Dechamp A., Ohrnberger 241254.

site characterization. Part II: M., Perron V., Sicilia D.,

inter-comparison between Teague D., Vergniault C..

surfacewave and borehole

methods.

Simulation of the Basin Effects Dujardin A., Causse M., Pure and Applied

in the Po Plain during the Courboulex F., Traversa P. Geophysics (2016), 173,

Emilia-Romagna Seismic 19932010.

Sequence (2012) using empirical

Greens functions

*Publications using the SIGMA data production or in connexion with scientific SIGMA actions

but the research is not directly funded by SIGMA

158 Annexes

Relation between seismic De Biasio M., Grange Symposium SMiRT22, USA,

ground motions and S., Dufour F., August 2013

Structural damage Petre-Lazar I., Allain F.

Nonstationary Stochastic Laurendeau A., Cotton Symposium 15 WCEE, Lisboa,

Simulation of Strong F., Bonilla F. 2012

Ground-Motion Time

Histories: Application to the

Japanese Database

Validation of site-effect Maufroy E., Bard P.-Y., Symposium 15 WCEE, Lisboa,

numerical predictions: New Chaljub E., Hollender 2012

results from the Euroseistest F., Kristek J., Moczo

Verification and Validation P., Theodoulidis N.

Project (E2VP)

Topographic effects in strong Rai M., Rodriguez- Symposium 15 WCEE, Lisboa,

ground motion Marek A., Yong A. 2012

A methodology for Bosco B., Thiry J.M., Symposium 15 WCEE, Lisboa,

measuring the quality of Rota M., Penna A., 2012

probabilistic seismic hazard Magenes G., Senfaute

predictions in the SIGMA G., Martin C.

project framework

Correlation between seismic De Biasio M., Grange Symposium: Second European

ground motions and floor S., Dufour F., Conference on Earthquake

acceleration demand for Petre-Lazar I., Allain F. engineering and Seismology. Istanbul,

frame and structural-wall 2014

buildings

Engineering application of Van Houtte C., New Zealand Society for Earthquake

high frequency ground Ktenidou O.-J., Larkin engineering Technical Conference and

motions in Christchurch T., Holden C. AGM, Wellington, 2628 Apr., 2013.

0 estimates for rock stations Ktenidou, O.-J., 10th US National Conference on

in the NGA-West2 project Kishida T., Darragh R., Earthquake engineering, Anchorage,

Silva W., Abrahamson 2125 July, 2014

N.N.

Annexes 159

PhD Theses

Alain Seismic Ground Motion Geoazur (CNRS, Courboulex F.

Dujardin Prediction: site-specific hybrid Universit de Nice (Geoazur) Causse

approach Sophia Antipolis) M. (ISTerre)

Aurore Sub-set of near-source ISTerre Cotton F. (ISTerre)

Laurendeau earthquake record Hollender F. (CEA)

Hilal Oksuz Testing probabilistic seismic ISTerre Beauval C.

hazard estimations against (ISTerre) Guguen

observations, application to P. (ISTerre)

France

Jean Letort Characterization of moderate ISTerre Cotton F. (ISTerre)

earthquake depths using

teleseismic data.

Jrmy Billant Study of a mega-structure: the CEREGE (Universit Bellier O.

Southwestern alpine front Aix-Marseille) (CEREGE)

Belledonne fault Hippolyte J.C.

(CEREGE)

Marylin Seismic Moment Magnitude EOST (Institut de Cara M. (EOST)

Denieul and Crustal Wave Coda Physique du Globe de Sbe O. (CEA)

Strasbourg)

Thibault tude de la vulnrabilit des Universit Quenet G. (UVSQ)

Fradet populations anciennes aux Observatoire de

tremblements de terre en Versailles Saint

France 16501850 Quentin en Yvelines

Jessie Mayor Regional variation of seismic IRAP (CNRS, Margerin L. (IRAP)

attenuation in Metropolitan Universit Toulouse Calvet M. (IRAP)

France, Observation and III, Paul Sabatier)

Modeling

Marco De Ground Motion Intensity 3SR Grenoble Grange S. (3SR

Biasio Measures for Seismic Grenoble) Calvet

Probabilistic Risk Analysis M. (IRAP)

Haitham Improving the understanding Virginia Tech, USA Rodriguez Marerk

Dawood and methodologies of ground A. (Virginia Tech,

motion variability USA)

160 Annexes

List ofDeliverables

Version Including Improvement of Meta-Parameters F.Cotton (GFZ),

S.Godey (CSEM),

M.Senyurt, P.Traversa,

(EDF)

D2-16 Pre Selection of Ground Motion Prediction S.Drouet, (Geoter)

Equations for France- S.

D2-17 Methodology and Testing of GMPEs Based on E.Delavaud, (ETH

Ground Motion Data from France and Surrounding Zurich)

Countries

D4-18 Final Preliminary Probabilistic Hazard Map for D.Carbon, C.Gomes,

Frances Southeast Ch. Martin, (Geoter)

D4-19 Methods for Testing PSHA Against Observations H.Oksuz, (ISTerre)

(Accelerometer Data)

D1-27 Review of Active Faulting in the Po Plain P.Burrato, F.Maesano,

G.Valensise, (INGV)

D4-29 Preliminary PSHAs at Selected Sites, based on E.Faccioli, (Polimi)

State of the Art Earthquake Source Models and

Attenuation Relationships, Considering Both

Outcropping Bedrock and Soil Conditions

D2-33 Development of Regional Ground Motion S.Drouet, (Geoter)

Prediction Equations Covering a Wide Magnitude

Range Based on Stochastic Simulations

(Application to the Alps, Pyrenees and Rhine

Graben Regions in France)

D2-34 The Use of Ground Motion Data and Macroseismic E.Delavaud, (Geoter)

Intensities to Evaluate the Applicability of GMPEs

to France

D4-35 Methodological Approach for Measuring the J.M.Thiry, B.Bosco,

Quality of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Predictions (Areva)

D3-36 Toward the Definition of Reference Ground-Motion L.Laurendeau, (Isterre)

D3-38 Evaluation of The Relevance of the Numerical E.Maufroy, (Isterre)

Simulation Approach for Site Effect Estimation

D3-39 Inventory of Approaches to Account for Site C.Lacave, M.Koller,

Effects: Methodologies and Regulations (Resonance Ing. Sa)

D4-41 Initial Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model for D.Carbon, S.Drouet,

Frances Southeast 1/4 C.Gomes, A.Leon, Ch.

Martin, R.Secanel,

(Geoter)

D1-49 Seismic Moment Magnitude and Crustal Wave M.Denieul, (Eost)

Coda

D1-50 Characterization of Earthquake Depth Using J.Letort, (Isterre)

Teleseismic Data Developing New Methods for

Moderate Events and Application to the Po Plain

Earthquakes

Annexes 161

Extensive Use of Site Data (Universit della

Basilicata)

D5-52 Relation Between Seismic Ground Motion and M.De Biasio, (3SR

Structural Damage and Function-Loss Part 1: Grenoble)

Structural Wall Buildings Preliminary Results

D2-53 Ranking of Available GMPEs from Residual F.Pacor, (INGV Milano)

Analysis for Northern Italy and Definition of

Reference GMPEs

D3-54 Evaluations of Seismic Ground Motion Variability R.Paolucci, (Polit.

at Soft Sites by 3d-1d Propagations Models, Milano)

Including Christchurch and Selected Sites in The Po

Plain

D1-66 Morphostructural Analysis of the Belledone Fault J.Billant, (Cerege)

System (Western Alps)

D1-67 Preliminary Earthquake Source Models of the Po G.Valensise, (INGV

Plain, Based on Full 3d Definition of Active Faults Roma)

D1-68 Methodological Approach in Analysing Historical T.Fradet, (Universit St

Sources: A Way to Improve Vulnerability Studies Quentin)

D2-71 Stochastic GMPEs for France S.Drouet, (Drouet

Consulting)

D2-72 Calibration of GMPEs for Po Plain Region F.Pacor, (INGV Milano)

D2-73 On the Magnitude Dependency of Ground Motion A.Dujardin,

Decay with Distance (Geosciences Azur)

D3-74 Preliminary Study on Empirical Approaches for Site M.Mucciarelli,

Effect Characterization (Including in Situ (Universit Della

Measurements) Basilicata)

D4-75 Development of Methods for Testing Probabilistic H.Oksuz, (Isterre)

Seismic Hazard Estimates against Observations

D1-89 Crustal Tomography 3D vs. 1D Localisation in T.Theunissen,

the Pyrenees S.Cheverot,

M.Sylvander, (OMP)

D2-91 Databank of Seismic Motion for Europe S.Akkar (METU),

RESORCE, 2013 Version: Improvement of S.Godey (CSEM),

Metaparameters/Inclusion of Weak Motion Data/ J.Douglas (BRGM),

Internet Portal/Perspectives and Related European L.Luzi (INGV),

Initiatives P.Traversa, (EDF)

D2-92 Metadata Uncertainties and Sensitivity of Empirical G.Ameri, (Geoter)

Ground Motion Prediction Equations Adapted to the

French Context

D2-93 Ground Shaking Scenarios in the Po Plain with R.Paolucci, (Polit.

Special Emphasis on the Area Affected by the Milano)

Earthquake Sequence of May 2012

D4-94 Site Specific Probabilistic Study for Po Plain Area E.Faccioli, M.Vanini,

R.Paolucci, (Polimi)

D3-96 Approaches to Account for Sites Effects in the R.Paolucci, E.Faccioli,

PSHA of Selected Sites in The Po Area C.Smerzini, M.Vanini,

(Polimi)

162 Annexes

Potential to Cause Site-Effects Taking into Account Bratislava)

the Geological Heterogeneities (Methodological

Approach)

D1-109 Revision of the Po Plain Earthquake Catalogue in M.Mucciarelli,

Probabilistic Terms (University of Potenza)

D1-110 Seismic Moment Magnitude and Crustal Coda M.Denieul, M.Cara,

Waves (Eost)

D2-111 Improving the Understanding and Methodologies of A.Rodriguez-Marek,

Ground Motion Variability (Virginia Tech)

D2-112 Kappa () Physical Understanding and Estimation O.Ktenidou, (Isterre)

Approaches Targeted to Applications

D2-113 Spatial Variations of Seismic Attenuation in J.Mayor, (Irap)

Metropolitan France from Observation and

Modelling of the Seismic Coda

D3-114 Prediction of Non-Linearity Using Numerical J.Regnier, (Cerema)

Simulation: Results of the Verification Phase of the

PRENOLIN Program

D3-115 Characterizing Site Metadata of Accelerometric A.Dechamp, (Cea)

Network Stations: Results and Methodological

Feedback from a RAP Station Survey

D3-116 Site Instrumentation Usefulness: Example of V.Perron, (Cea)

Application of Empirical Site Effect Estimation in

Low Seismicity Context and Implementation

Recommendations

D4-118 Estimation of Seismic Risks Using Structural M.Rota, (Eucentre)

Fragility Functions and Macroseismic Intensity

Data

D5-119 Relation Between Seismic Ground Motion and M.Di Biasio, (3SR

Structural Damages & Function-Loss Grenoble)

D1-127 Seismotectonic and Geodynamic Synthesis of SE X.Sengelen, O.Bellier

France (Cerege), L Bollinger

(Cea), K.Manchuel,

(EDF)

D1-128 Study of the Relation Isoseismal Areas vs. A.Schlupp,

Depth-Magnitude, Based on Instrumental Data M.Durrenberger, C.Sira,

(EOST)

D1-129 Study of Instrumented Earthquakes that Occurred J.Benjumea, M.Cara,

during the First Part of the 20th Century L.Rivera, (EOST)

(19051962)

D2-130 Development of Response Spectral Ground-Motion S.Sigh Bora, (GFZ)

Prediction Equation (GMPE) from Empirical

Fourier Spectral and Duration Models

D2-131 Empirical Ground Motion Model Adapted to the G.Ameri, (Geoter)

French Context

D2-132 Ground Motion Uncertainty and Variability in O.Ktenidou, (Isterre)

Euroseistest, Greece

D2-133 Ground Motion Variability in the Po Plain Region F.Pacor, (INGV Milano)

Annexes 163

Velocity Profile Characterization (INTERPACIFIC (Polito)

Project): Results and Learnings from the Blind-Test

Stage and Suggestions for a Good Practice Guide

for Non-Invasive Methods

D3-137 3D Ground Motions Simulations for Site Effects E.Maufroi, (Isterre)

Assessment: Learnings from Euroseistest

Verification and Validation Project

D4-138 Integration of Sigma Improvement for PSHA and G.Ameri, (Geoter)

Sensitivity Studies (Intermediate Results)

D4-139 Methodological Exercise for Testing a Statistical R.Secanell, C.Martin,

Approach to Update a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard (Geoter)

Assessment

D4-140 Comparative Study on the PSHA Estimates Using M.Pagani (GEM

Crisis and Openquake Foundation Advisor),

L.Rodriguez (UME

School Pavia)

D5-141 Application of the Conditional Spectra (CS) M.Marcilhac,

Method K.Macocco, (Phimeca)

D1-147 Relation of Intensity Attenuation and D.Baumont, (Fugro),

Methodologies to Determine Seismological J.Bonnet, (UNS Nice

Parameters of Historic Earthquakes. University)

D1-148 Catalogue of Isoseismal Areas for XXth Century J.Lambert, D.Monfort-

French Historical Earthquakes (Io>VI) Climent, O.Bouc,

(BRGM)

V2A2T3-1 PRENOLIN: Results from the Verification and J.Rgnier, (Cerema),

(D3-149) Validation Phases & Present Recommendations for F.Bonilla (IFSTTAR)

the Use of Non-Linear Simulation

V1A1T3-1 Correction of Surface Records of their Site Effect F.Hollender, (CEA),

(D3-150) before Developing GMPE: An Alternative Approach L.Foundotos,

to Get Reference Incident Ground Motion A.Laurendeau, (CEA),

(Application to Kik-Net Data) PY.Bard, (Isterre)

D3-151 Identification of Key Site Features for Site Effect P.Moczo, (Bratislava

Evaluation: Extensive Numerical Sensitivity Studies University)

of Sedimentary Basin Structures

D3-152 Good Practices Guidelines for Site Response

Evaluation

D4-153 SIGMA Integrated Exercise for Site-Specific PSHA G.Ameri, (Geoter)

D4-154 Estimation of Seismic Risks Using Structural A.Rosti, M.Rota,

Fragility Functions and Macroseismic Intensity E.Fiorini, A.Penna,

Data P.Bazzurro, G.Magenes,

(Eucentre)

D1-168 Calibration of Macroseismic Attenuation Models K.Manchuel, P.Traversa,

for France (EDF), D.Baumont

(Geoter)

D3-169 Good Practices Guidelines for Site Characterization

D4-170 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for C.Martin, G.Ameri,

South-Eastern France (Geoter) D.Baumont

(Fugro)

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Index

Acceleration time histories, 102 Disaggregation, 11, 12, 21

scaled natural records, 102 conditional spectra

spectrally-matched, 102 scenarios, 12

Adjustments, 63 Dispersion curve, 87

host-to-target, 66 Distance, 63

Amplification factor, 15 conversion, 134

Annual probability of exceedance, 9, 20 metrics, 63

Attenuation parameters, 62 Down-hole, 61

attenuation equations, 63

high-frequency, 62

E

Earthquake catalogue, 133

B Equivalent linear analyses, 104

Bayesian approach, 145 Casaglia site, 104

Bayesian framework to modify the logic tree EuroseisTest, 104

weights, 145 Grenoble, 104

Ergodic, 73

European Macroseismic Scale (EMS), 133

C Experts, 13, 1617

CAV. See Cumulative Absolute Velocity evaluator, 17

(CAV) expert elicitation, 16, 17

Coefficients of variation, 87 expert judgement, 17

Consistency, 63 expert opinion, 17

site-conditions, 63 informed technical community, 17

tectonic, 63 proponent, 17

Control point, 18, 19 resource expert, 17

outcropping motion, 19 technical defensible interpretation, 17

Correction, 66

host-to-target, 66

Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV), 22 F

Fault, 64

mechanisms, 64

D normal, 64

Database, 59 reverse, 64

European, 59 strike-slip, 64

A. Pecker et al., An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Geotechnical,

Geological and Earthquake Engineering 42, DOI10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5

170 Index

Focal depth, 135 branch, 13

Fractile, 15, 20 collectively exhaustive, 14

Fragility, 18 mutually exclusive, 14

Frequency magnitude distribution, 44 node, 13

G M

GMPE. See Ground motion prediction Magnitude conversion, 133

equation (GMPE) Maximum ground motion, 117, 136

Greens functions, 91 Maximum magnitude, 8, 42

Ground motion characterization, 7, 135 Method to compare PSHA results with

Ground motion component, 57 historical information, 143

horizontal, 57 Minimum magnitude, 10, 135

vertical, 7879 Models, 57

Ground motion prediction equation (GMPE), area source, 59

9, 57, 93 point source, 62

median amplitude, 9 stochastic, 57

median prediction, 97

nonlinear term, 96

proxy, 96 N

site-specific correction factors (S2S), 97 Non-linear, 137

standard deviations, 96 Nonlinear Numerical Analyses,

Ground motion prediction model, 7 107111

Ground motions, 62 Casaglia, 109

duration, 22, 70 epistemic uncertainties, 107

estimates, 61 EuroseisTest, 109

synthetic, 62 Grenoble, 109

Gutenberg-Richter, 9 Japan, 108

numerical testing of the model, 108

Prenolin international benchmark, 107

H Nonlinear soil properties, 92

Hazard curve, 8, 11, 20 equivalent damping ratio, 92

Host-to-target, 137 Prenolin benchmark, 93

conversions, 136 reference shear strain, 93

Kappa, 137 secant shear modulus, 92

shear behaviour, 93

volumetric behaviour, 93

I

Incident wave field, 102

Interfaces, 18, 133138 O

Occurrence Processes, 4142

characteristic model, 42

J Poisson model, 41

Japan, 71

KiK-net, 71

P

Parameter, 61

L site, 67

Lessons learned, 26, 27 stress, 61

management of the interfaces Peak ground acceleration (PGA), 9, 136

interfaces between the various Peak ground velocity (PGV), 18, 22

disciplines, 27 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment

Linear Numerical Analyses, 103104 (PSHA), 5, 812

Grenoble test-site, 103 Probability of exceedance, 15

Index 171

PSHA at a rock site, 95 area sources, 32

database, 28

GIS database, 29

Q depth distribution, 18, 133

Quality factor, 67, 103 dip angle, 18

distance metric, 133

fault sources, 32

R composite seismogenic fault

Rate of occurrence, 8, 11 sources, 36

Recurrence, 8 focal depth, 18

Reference bedrock, 136 management of the interfaces, 25

Reference rock, 14 magnitude-area scaling, 18

Regional Study, 67 QA verification and validation

Residual, 73 procedures, 53

between-event, 74 seismic sources, 5

prediction, 61 spatial smoothing, 6

within-event, 79 seismotectonic, 5

Results, 1822 smoothed seismicity approach, 38

design, 18, 19 source geometry, 8

probabilistic safety assessments, 1820 stable continental region, 5

soil-structure interaction, 19 style of faulting, 18

verification, 18 subduction region, 6

Rock, 57 Sensitivity, 14

hard, 58 Sensitivity analyses, 27

sites, 59 pilot model, 50

very hard, 61 Shear-wave velocity, 85

weathered, 71 Sigma, 64

Rock hazard, 93 truncation, 7378

Rupture dimension, 134 Single-station, 69

Single-station sigma, 7, 16, 97,

137138

S Site amplification functions, 93

Seismic hazard computation process, experimental, 98

119, 126 Japanese KiK-net data, 98

acceleration time histories, 128 norms, 98

alternative engineering output Site Amplification Prediction Equation,

parameters, 127 SAPE, 100

basic requirements applying to hazard site class, 98

computation, 119 Site characterization, 85

Conditional Spectra, 129 Site class, 89

disaggregation of seismic hazard, 126 Site conditions, 58

Magnitude-distance-epsilon hard-rock, 58

disaggregation, 126 Site investigation, 85, 86

PSHA software, 120 invasive tests, 85

sensitivity analysis, 123 crosshole, 85

Site Response Analysis Codes, 122123 down-hole, 85

V&V documentation, 120 Suspension Logging, 85

Seismic instrumentation, 91 guidelines, 90

accelerometers, 91 InterPACIFIC benchmark, 89

empirical amplification functions, 91 non-invasive, 85

signal-to-noise ratio, 91 Ambient Vibration H/V

velocity meters, 91 Measurements, 86

Seismic sources characterization (SSC), SESAME, 86

6, 29, 36 spectral analysis of surface waves, 85

172 Index

damping, 14 models, 33

hybrid approaches (HyS, HyG), 95 2D or 3D amplification, 101

fully probabilistic approaches aggravation factor, 101

(FpS, FpG), 95 EuroseisTest, 101

impedance contrast, 14 NERA, 101

non-linearity, 14

resonance, 14

shear-wave velocity, 18 U

soil, 14 UHS. See Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS)

soil amplification, 15 Uncertainties, 6, 1217, 20, 57, 136, 138

Site response analysis, 85 aleatory variability, 1213, 57, 112

Site specific, 67 double counting, 16, 112, 136

Site term, 73 epistemic uncertainty, 1213, 57

Site to reference, 91 ergodicity, 111

Soil constitutive models, 101 event corrected single-station standard

equivalent linear, 101 deviation, 111

fully nonlinear, 101 inter-event variability, 111

linear, 101 site-to-site variability S2S, 111

linear viscoelastic, 102 standard deviation, 9, 15

Soil response characterization (SRC). total single-station standard

See Site response deviation, 111

Spatial variability, 90 Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS), 21

Spectra, 67 epistemic uncertainty, 1213

Fourier, 67

response, 68

Spectral acceleration, 9, 57 V

median response, 57 V/H Models, 138

standard deviation, 57 Variability, 57

SSC logic tree, 47 aleatory, 57

Bayesian framework to modify the logic record-to-record, 74

tree weights, 52 Velocity, 59

Style-of-faulting, 62, 134 profiles, 62

shear-wave, 59

Vertical motions, 115

T 1D site response analyses, 116

Testing probabilistic seismic hazard models physics, 116

against observations, 142 V/H relationships, 115

PSHA testing using recorded

accelerometer data, 142

Transfer function, 62 W

Treatment of the uncertainties, 27 Weight, 8, 14, 15

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