Program/Project Evaluation and Review Technique ( PERT)

Designed for project planning and scheduling that uses probabilistic activity times.

Stochastic PERT
Project scheduling technique in which the activity times are of probabilistic nature
Deterministic PERT
Project scheduling technique in which the activity time are assumed to be known with certainty

Expected Time is the average activity time.

Beta Distribution is a probability distribution used to describe activity times.

Three Estimates of the Activity Time

1. Optimistic Time is a PERT activity time estimate based on the assumption that it would take the
shortest possible time to complete an activity if everything went right.
2. Most Probable Time is a PERT activity time estimate based on the assumption that the time
would occur most frequent if the activity is repeated many times.
3. Pessimistic Time is a PERT activity time estimate based on the assumption that it would take the
longest possible time to complete an activity if everything went wrong.

Mean and Variance of Beta Distribution

++
= = ( )

Where: = estimate of expected activity time
= optimistic time
= most probable time
= pessimistic time
2 = variance

The Sigma Bravo Company is planning to develop a new chemical process. They have the following
activities:
A. Test method 1 for the process
B. Test method 2 for the process
C. Select the best method and refine the process
D. Complete initial preparation of production facilities.
E. Train personnel
F. Develop final procedures manual
G. Run tests on the refined process
H. Adjust the production method
I. Set up complete production system
J. Run final tests
 Activity Immediate Optimistic (a) Most Pessimistic
Predecessor Probable (m) (b)
A - 10 15 26
B - 8 10 18
C A,B 4 5 6
D - 10 12 14
E D 1 2 3
F D 1 3 11
G C,E 1 2 3
H F,G 2 2 2
I F 3 4 5
J H,I 1 2 3

a. Develop a project network and determine the expected project completion time.
b. What is the probability that the project completion will meet the 30-week deadline?

Steps.

1. Compute for the expected times and variances.

2. Construct the network diagram.
3. Determine the completion time per activity
4. Determine the earliest start time and earliest finish time using forward pass.
EF = ES + t
5. Determine the latest finish time and the latest start time using the backward pass
LS = LF - t
6. Compute for the slack of all activities using the formula provided below and identify the zero
slack to identify the critical path.
Slack = LS ES = LF - EF
7.