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Macroeconomic Digest
Monetary Policy Statement Jan-Jun 2016 Review
Overview
Bangladesh Bank has shown all intentions of spurring the economy which is aiming a trajectory towards 7% GDP growth.
The central bank, after a long period of time, has reduced the policy rates by 50 basis points. Higher growth rate has been
targeted for Broad Money, Domestic Credit, Public Sector Credit and Private Sector Credit in June 2016 compared to the
actual growth achieved in Dec 2015. Inflation is expected to reduce to 6.07% by June 2016 from 6.2% in Dec 2015 mainly
due to low fuel and commodity prices globally, even after pay scale revision in the Government sector. This investment
stimulating monetary policy focuses on financial inclusion through selective easing for different productive sectors, strate-
gic move in loan disbursements to green and budding projects in the backdrop of excess liquidity in the banking system.
General inflation in a downward trend but rise in nonfood inflation remains a concern
Inflation has been well managed in the recent years- the general inflation dropped from above 7% of mid-2014 to 6.1% in
Dec 2015. The decline can be attributed to depressed global commodity market and falling fuel price. Moreover, the food
component occupies about 60% of our consumption basket and the price of food is falling all over the world. However, the
nonfood inflation is in an upward trend since Oct 2014 and may cause BB to be a bit cautious. The pay rise in the Govern-
ment sector is likely to push up prices but expected fuel price adjustment in the country may pull it down again.
Bangladesh capital market, which has stabilized after 2010 bubble, has been well dealt with by SEC and BB for making it
vibrant. BB has devised ways to make the stock market operate in full swing even after the central bank reigned in the expo-
sure of commercial banks in the stock market to realign them to global standards.
Central bank tough on commercial banks bad lending. BB also taking important qualitative
initiatives towards financial inclusion
Green projects are also given the opportunity to get lower rates as WB committed to contribute USD 300 million cred-
it for various projects. BB will also add another USD 200 million to the fund making it a total of USD 500 million. The
USD 300 million fund will be utilized for medium to long term foreign currency financing of manufacturing projects.
BBs USD 200 million fund will be specifically used to help greening initiatives of export oriented textiles, apparel and
leather sectors. BB will also extend low cost fund for promoting woman entrepreneurship, skill building projects and
energy expansion initiatives. Export Development Fund (EDF) has been raised to UDS 2 billion to accommodate
such selective easing by BB.
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The information contained in this report has been compiled by IDLC Securities Limited (IDLC-SL) from sources believed
to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by IDLC-SL as to its accuracy, complete-
ness or correctness. Expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration and were based
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Kazi Monirul Islam, CFA joined IDLC Securities Limited as the Head of Research on May 26, 2014. He received his CFA
Charter in 2014. He completed his graduation from Department of Finance, University of Dhaka. He has diverse experi-
ence of working in different institutions of Bangladesh Capital Market such as Brokerage Firm, Merchant Bank and Asset
management Company. He started his career back in 2009 as an Analyst in Asian Tiger Capital Partners Limited. He left
the Company as Assistant Vice President and joined in IL Capital Limited as Head of Investment. He teaches capital
market professionals in Bangladesh Institute of Capital Market (BICM) as Guest Speaker.
Md. Saimum Hossain is a Research Consultant in IDLC Securities. He graduated from the Faculty of Business Studies
(FBS), University of Dhaka with a major in Finance. He started his career in the Bangladesh office of a macro-focused
global hedge fund based out of New York as a buy-side analyst in June 2013 and subsequently switched to sell-side
research. He is actively pursuing the CFA Charter and has passed Level II of the CFA examination. He has a specialization
in business plan development and writing. Apart from being a Pharmaceuticals sector specialist, he teaches investment
management at one of the top business schools of Bangladesh called Faculty of Business Students (FBS), University of
Dhaka.
Nahiyan Nasir is a Research Analyst in IDLC Securities. He is enrolled in the CFA program since March 2014 and is a
CFA Level III candidate for 2016 exam. Nahiyan completed his B.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering from Bangladesh Univer-
sity of Engineering & Technology (BUET) and obtained his MBA from IBA, University of Dhaka with a major in Finance.
He is a Certified Energy Auditor (CEA) and a member of Association of Energy Engineers (AEE) since December 2014. He
currently covers Energy, Construction and IT sectors.
Ayaz Mahmud is a Research Analyst in IDLC Securities. He passed CFA Level III exam in 2013 and awaiting for CFA char-
ter. Ayaz completed his BBA from BRAC University. He was awarded VC's gold medal for achieving highest CGPA from
his department. Ayaz eventually obtained his MBA from IBA, University of Dhaka ending up among the top three in his
batch. He has commendable analytical ability and covers Bank, NBFI, FMCG and Textile sector.
Nazmus Saadat is a Management Trainee in IDLC Securities limited. He has graduated as a Finance major from Institute
of Business Administration (IBA), University of Dhaka. He is passionate about investment research and risk management
issues. He has passed CFA level I examination held in June 2015. He currently covers Telecommunication, Ceramic, Food
and Footwear industries.
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