Leon Bodevin

Homework # 1 Mona Omari

September 20, 2017 Bhaskar Pugga
Chenglu Yang
1a. Days (t) Demand (Dt) Average N=3 Forecast N = 3 Forecast Error (et) et^2 CFE
1.00 20.00
2.00 19.00
3.00 21.00 20.00
4.00 22.00 20.67 20.00 -2.00 4.00
5.00 19.00 20.67 20.67 1.67 2.78
6.00 18.00 19.67 20.67 2.67 7.11
7.00 20.00 19.00 19.67 -0.33 0.11
8.00 18.00 18.67 19.00 1.00 1.00
9.00 23.00 20.33 18.67 -4.33 18.78
10.00 20.00 20.33 20.33 0.33 0.11 -4.00

Average N=4 Forecast N=4 Forecast Error (et) et^2 CFE

20.50
20.25 20.50 1.50 2.25
20.00 20.25 2.25 5.06
19.75 20.00 0.00 0.00
18.75 19.75 1.75 3.06
19.75 18.75 -4.25 18.06
20.25 19.75 -0.25 0.06 -4.50

1b. Days (t) Demand (Dt) Forecast (Ft), a= 0.2 Forecast Error (et) et^2 CFE MSE
1.00 20.00 20.00 0.00 0.00
2.00 19.00 20.00 1.00 1.00
3.00 21.00 19.80 -1.20 1.44
4.00 22.00 20.04 -1.96 3.84
5.00 19.00 20.43 1.43 2.05
6.00 18.00 20.15 2.15 4.60
7.00 20.00 19.72 -0.28 0.08
8.00 18.00 19.77 1.77 3.14
9.00 23.00 19.42 -3.58 12.83
10.00 20.00 20.13 0.13 0.02 -3.45 6.42

Forecast (Ft), a= 0.8 Forecast Error (et) et^2 CFE MSE

20.00 0.00 0.00
20.00 1.00 1.00
19.20 -1.80 3.24
20.64 -1.36 1.85
21.73 2.73 7.44
19.55 1.55 2.39
 18.31 -1.69 2.86
19.66 1.66 2.76
18.33 -4.67 21.79
22.07 2.07 4.27 -2.60 13.03

1c. Days (t) Demand (Dt) Average a=0.3, B=0.2 Forecast (Ft), a=0.3, B=0.2 Trend (Tt) Forecast Error (et) et^2
0.00 20.00 1.00
1.00 20.00 20.70 21.00 0.94 1.00 1.00
2.00 19.00 20.85 21.64 0.78 2.64 6.97
3.00 21.00 21.44 21.63 0.74 0.63 0.40
4.00 22.00 22.13 22.18 0.73 0.18 0.03
5.00 19.00 21.70 22.86 0.50 3.86 14.91
6.00 18.00 20.94 22.20 0.25 4.20 17.68
7.00 20.00 20.83 21.19 0.18 1.19 1.42
8.00 18.00 20.11 21.01 0.00 3.01 9.07
9.00 23.00 20.97 20.10 0.17 -2.90 8.38
10.00 20.00 20.80 21.14 0.10 1.14 1.31

Average a=0.7, B=0.8 Forecast (Ft), a=0.7, B=0.8 Trend (Tt) Forecast Error (et) et^2
20.00 1.00
20.30 21.00 0.44 1.00 1.00
19.52 20.74 -0.53 1.74 3.03
20.40 18.99 0.59 -2.01 4.05
21.70 20.99 1.16 -1.01 1.02
20.16 22.86 -1.00 3.86 14.86
18.35 19.16 -1.65 1.16 1.34
19.01 16.70 0.20 -3.30 10.90
18.36 19.21 -0.48 1.21 1.47
21.47 17.89 2.39 -5.11 26.15
21.16 23.85 0.23 3.85 14.84

1d. CFEs and MSEs are above.

Results show that the forecast using double exponential smoothing was the most accurate forecast in terms of CFE.
The MSE for the double exponential smoothing using a=0.3, B=0.2 was also the lowest in all the forecasts.
 on Bodevin
ona Omari
haskar Puggal
henglu Yang
MSE

9.44

MSE

9.06
CFE MSE

-1.75 4.85

CFE MSE

-1.26 20.50
2a. Month Failures Moving Average N=3 Forecast
1 200.00
2 250.00
3 175.00 208.33
4 186.00 203.67 208.33
5 225.00 195.33 203.67
6 285.00 232.00 195.33
7 305.00 271.67 232.00
8 190.00 260.00 271.67

2b. (Please see attached handwritten sheet)

2c. (Please see attached handwritten sheet)

2d. a 0.50
Month Failures Forecast
1 200.00 200.00
2 250.00 200.00
3 175.00 225.00
4 186.00 200.00
5 225.00 193.00
6 285.00 209.00
7 305.00 247.00
8 190.00 276.00

(N+1)/2
(2+1)/2=2

2=1/a
2a=1
a=1/2
 p 0.008
q 0.421

3a. m 5,800,000
t 9.24
D(t) 2,844,893

3b. m 4,200,000
t 9.24
D(t) 2,060,095
c. As can be seen in below table and graph, peak of demand for cameras will occur in September 2018. Peak demand is 632,218 cameras.

months January-18 February-18 March-18 April-18 May-18 June-18 July-18 August-18 September-18 October-18 November-18 December-18 January-19 February-19 March-19 April-19 May-19
U-Phones t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
U-Pads t 1 2 3 4 5
p 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008
q 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421
U-phones m 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000
U-pads m 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000
U-phones D(t) 69,855 104,091 152,754 219,203 304,635 404,972 507,602 591,178 632,218 617,242 551,316 454,724 351,125 257,621 182,038 125,247 84,604
U-pads D(t) 50,584 75,376 110,615 158,733 220,598
Cumulative Demand 69,855 104,091 152,754 219,203 304,635 404,972 507,602 591,178 632,218 617,242 551,316 454,724 401,709 332,997 292,653 283,980 305,202

months June-19 July-19 August-19 September-19 October-19 November-19 December-19 January-20 February-20 March-20 April-20 May-20 June-20 July-20 August-20 September-20 October-20
U-Phones t 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
U-Pads t 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
p 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008
q 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.421
U-phones m 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 5,800,000
U-pads m 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000 4,200,000
U-phones D(t) 56,444 37,345 24,573 16,111 10,538 6,882 4,490 2,927 1,908 1,243 810 527 343 224 146 95 62
U-pads D(t) 293,256 367,574 428,095 457,813 446,969 399,229 329,283 254,263 186,553 131,821 90,696 61,265 40,873 27,043 17,794 11,667 7,631
Cumulative Demand 349,699 404,919 452,668 473,924 457,506 406,111 333,773 257,190 188,461 133,064 91,506 61,792 41,216 27,267 17,940 11,761 7,693