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Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
DOI 10.1007/s12665-011-1483-0
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Received: 10 March 2011 / Accepted: 2 December 2011 / Published online: 15 December 2011
Springer-Verlag 2011
Abstract The major landslide events that occurred in and were not defined hydrological response of rainfall to the
Chittagong City in 2007 and 2008 have caused the death of soil, as well as other geological conditions associated with
about 140 people and incurred a considerable amount of slopes.
property loss. At least ten landslide events occurred during
the period of 20002009, with mainly rainfall as the trig- Keywords Landslide Gumbels distribution
gering factor. The critical rainfall condition of the landslide Rainfall intensityduration Antecedent Bangladesh
events was analyzed with Gumbels extreme value distri-
bution using the historical rainfalllandslide data. The
antecedent rainfalls were used for Gumbels distribution for Introduction
the critical rainfall intensitydurations of each historical
landslide event. Landslides were correlated with the monthly A landslide can be defined as the movement of a mass of
average as well as the percentile rank of monthly median rock, earth or debris down a slope (Cruden 1991). Land-
rainfall. The regression relationship between 30 days of slides are a common geological phenomenon in many
absolute antecedent rainfall intensity (I) and corresponding countries and refer to a number of processes that result in
duration (D) of rainfall responsible for the landslides in the the noticeable downward and outward movement of rock,
study area was found as I = -15.8ln(D) ? 60.49. The cal- earth and debris under gravitational influences (Cruden
ibrated antecedent rainfall analysis showed a relation 1991). In shallow landslide, the sliding surface is located
between I and D as I = -40.5ln(D) ? 162.5. The major within the soil mantle or weathered bedrock, typically to a
recent landslide events were related to the extreme rainfall depth up to a few meters. It usually includes debris slides,
intensities ([40 mm/day) having short period of time debris flow and failures of road cut-slopes. It is well known
(27 days). All the major landslide events occurred at much that the rainfall has intense effects in producing landslides
higher rainfall amount compared to the monthly average. in the mountainous areas of different countries. The rain-
However, these rainfall thresholds were statistically based fall-induced shallow landslides, also called soil slips, are
becoming common all over the world. Several studies (e.g.,
Pradhan and Lee 2010; Chang et al. 2008; Xie et al. 2004)
Y. A. Khan (&) suggest that precipitation is one of the important triggering
Department of Geology and Mining, University of Rajshahi, factors that causes landslides. Generally, the main causes
Rajshahi 6205, Bangladesh of this phenomenon seem to be prolonged rainfalls of
e-mail: younus@ru.ac.bd
medium intensity or extreme intense rainfall events. The
H. Lateh A. A. Kamil intensities and durations of such rainfalls have to be
School of Distance Education, Universiti Sains Malaysia, addressed for the proper understanding of landsliderain-
11800 USM, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia fall relationship. Caine (1980) first suggested a limiting
threshold of rainfall intensity and duration for shallow
M. A. Baten
Department of Statistics, Shah Jalal University of Science landsliding and debris flow activity. Many researchers
and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh (e.g., Cannon et al. 2008; Floris and Bozzano 2008; Chen
123
98 Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
et al. 2007, 2005; Guzzetti et al. 2007; Baum et al. 2005; distribution (Marques et al. 2008). Glade et al. (2000)
Wieczorek and Glade 2005; Lan et al. 2005; Guzzetti et al. used an empirical antecedent daily rainfall model for
2004; Ngecu and Mathu 1999; Crosta 1998; Finlay et al. probabilistic landslide analysis. A number of different
1997; Au 1993; Larsen and Simon 1993) have investigated approaches were also devised to incorporate the rain
qualitative as well as quantitative effects of rainfall on infiltration in terms of pore water pressure distribution
landslide occurrence. We would like to review some inside the slope for shallow landslide (Iverson 2000;
research articles relating rainfalls to landslide occurrences Haneberg 1991). Generally, these approaches use models
in different parts of the world. An evaluation of shallow of infinite slope stability analysis to find the critical pore
landslides induced by a particular rainfall event was done pressure distribution at failure. Gabet et al. (2004)
with a timespace based approach and GIS (Xie et al. developed a slope stability model where they used 3 years
2004). Chang et al. (2008) proposed a landslide model of daily rainfall and sediment transport data to define the
using a quantitative precipitation during typhoon that relation between monsoonal rainfall and landslides in the
could be used to compute probabilistic landslide occur- Annapurna region of Nepal and suggested that the two
rence for a real-time monitoring system. Guzzetti et al. distinct threshold values, seasonal accumulation and daily
(2008) investigated the rainfall intensityduration (ID) for amount, were critical for landslide to occur.
initiation of shallow landslide and proposed a global ID Landslide is an inevitable problem for the southeastern
for shallow landslide occurrences. Studies of landslides part of Bangladesh; particularly, Chittagong City is
relating to rainfalls Onodera et al. (1974) for example, highly vulnerable to landslide hazard, with an increasing
found that the slope failures increased abruptly after trend of frequency and damage. The landslides in the
rainfall exceeded 150200 mm with the rainfall intensity study area are classified as earth slides since they
more than 2030 mm per hour in Japan. An approximate consist more than 80% sand and finer particles, based on
rainfall value of 250 mm is a likely threshold for the classification suggested by Cruden and Varnes (1996).
occurrences of landslides in San Benito County, Califor- The Chittagong City (Fig. 1) of Bangladesh lies between
nia (Oberste-lehn 1976) and in Alameda County, Cali- 21 540 N to 22 590 N latitude and 91 170 E to 92 140 E
fornia (Nilsen et al. 1976). According to Guidicini and longitude. At least ten landslide events have occurred
Iwasa (1977), landslides can occur in southeast Brazil during the period of 20002009, where several events
when precipitations exceed 817% of the mean annual were directly related to the extreme monsoonal rainfall
precipitation and the catastrophic event may occur with ranging from 125 to 425 mm. The landslides were shal-
rainfall of more than 20% of the annual mean. Ng and Shi low in nature and occurred generally during and/or after
(1998) suggest that short-duration rainfalls with high heavy rainfall. Such type of extreme events can be ana-
intensity can trigger landslides in Hong Kong. Recently, lyzed using the functional form of extreme value distri-
Marques et al. (2008) studied the role of rainfall in bution (e.g., Gumbels distribution). Marques et al.
landslides on the regional scale for Portugal and found (2008) used Gumbels distribution to find the return
that the landslides were related both to short-duration period of rainfall amountduration that produced major
precipitation events (13 days) with high average inten- landslide events in Portugal. The rainfall intensity and
sity (between 78 and 144 mm/day) and long-lasting duration play very important role in producing shallow
rainfall episodes (15 months) with a lower intensity landslides in the present study area. Investigation about
(between 9 and 22 mm/day). Guzzetti et al. (2004) the role of rainfall intensity and duration as well as the
described that the rainfall triggered landslides with effects of antecedent rainfall should be addressed in the
cumulative and continuous rainfall data combined with Chittagong City area. Very few studies (i.e., Khan and
other information collected from the landslide occur- Chang 2006, 2008) related to the landslide problems of
rences. Ayalew (1999) used the cumulative precipitation this area have been undertaken, but those studies did not
and the mean annual rainfall to describe the rainfall effect consider the effects of rainfall intensity and duration. No
on landslides by means of likelihood of occurrence. The relationship between rainfall and landslide for this area
importance of antecedent rainfall in landslide initiation has so far been investigated. The relationship between
has been recognized. Several studies (Marques et al. 2008; landslide occurrences and rainfall events in the Chitta-
Crozier 1986) have illustrated the calibrated antecedent gong City needs proper scientific study to assess future
rainfall effects on shallow landslides, since the absolute failure events.
rainfall for longer periods may not have complete influ- Therefore, the present paper represents the statistical
ences due to evaporation and other similar losses of analyses of extreme value distribution of antecedent rain-
rainwater. Extreme rainfalls events that produced major fall using daily rainfall data of the period 20002009 and
landslides in Portugal have been analyzed using a prob- its impacts on major landslides that occurred in 2007 and
abilistic functional form of Gumbels extreme value 2008. The study finally characterizes the relationship
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Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106 99
between the major landslide events and the critical rainfall Devpahar, Motijhorna, Khulshi, Baizid Bostami, Foys
intensityduration from the antecedent rainfall analysis. Lake, Batali Hill, Nasirabad and Kusumbagh are the most
affected areas by landslides.
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100 Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
A series of landslides (Fig. 2) due to torrential rains The landslide of 18 August 2008 took place in the Mati-
occurred in 18 August 2008 and 11 June 2007 and left as jharna area (Fig. 2b) of Lalkhan Bazaar, Bakulia, Lebub-
many as 140 people dead and many injured. These two agan and Batali Hill areas. The major event completely
events that produced a considerable number of landslides bulldozed 13 small houses in those areas. The amount of
in the area were related to the extreme nature of rainfall rainfall was 125 mm in 24 h till 12:00 noon of 18 August
events. 2008 (Hayat 2008). The landslides in the 2008 event were
also found to be shallow in nature. The depths to the main
11 June 2007 event of landslides scarps of these landslides were not more than 2 m. The
depth of the main scarp of failure was about 10 m in
A number of landslides occurred on 11 June 2007 in dif- Lebubagan. Several landslide locations (Fig. 2cf) were
ferent parts of the city with huge number of casualties. The investigated after the 18 August 2008 landslide event.
most affected areas were Matijharna of Lalkhan Bazaar,
Power Colony, Kushum Bagh (Fig. 2a), Devpahar and
Shaheed Minar area of Chittagong City. The amount of Rainfall analysis and landslide
precipitation was 425 mm during 24 h on the day of
landslide. All the landslides were shallow in nature and In the present analysis, it was assumed that the rainfall
occurred in loose sandstone with inter-bedded shale. These acted as a triggering factor for a landslide, while the other
sandstones comprised mostly medium to fine sand with factors like soil properties, slope geometries and other
\5% silt and clay. Due to the inundation of part of hill- geological features like fault, lineaments, earthquakes, etc.,
slopes, the sands at the toes of the slopes were completely were kept constant. The rainfall analysis was carried out
saturated. Subsequent dissolution of fines from the sands using the daily rainfall data covering the period of
caused sudden reduction of shearing strength of the slope 20002009. The analysis was statistically based and was
material and induced failure. Shallow retrogressive failures not defined as hydrological impact of rainfall into the soil,
were also found in some cases after water drained out from as well as other geological conditions associated with
the slope toes. slopes. The rainfall data were collected at the Chittagong
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Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106 101
weather station of Bangladesh meteorological department not find any importance of the antecedent rainfall for the
and it was also assumed that these rainfall data were rep- initiation of landslides.
resentative of the study area. The mean annual rainfall for The present paper tried to find any relationship between
this duration at Chittagong was about 246 mm. The landslide and the antecedent rainfall in the study area.
monthly rainfall distribution showed a significant differ- Analyses for absolute antecedent as well as calibrated
ence between the wet (AprilSeptember) and the dry antecedent rainfall situations are considered in the fol-
(OctoberMarch) seasons (Fig. 3). Most (about 80% of lowing sections.
total landslide) of the landslides events in the area occurred
between May and September during the peak rainfall Absolute antecedent rainfall
([200 mm) months in the wet period of the year. About
30% of the total landslides occurred in the month of June To investigate the effects of preceding rainfalls on land-
(with average monthly rainfall [600 mm) during the per- slides, Eq. 1 has been used:
iod of 20002009. One of the two major landslides events AARx R1 R2 Rn 1
also occurred in June (11 June 2007). All the historical
landslide events were marked as ID1, ID2 and so on in the where AARx is the cumulative absolute antecedent rainfall
analysis. for day x; R1 is the daily rainfall amount for the day before
x; Rn is the daily rainfall amount for the n-th day before day
Reconstruction of antecedent rainfall x. The computation of cumulative absolute antecedent
rainfall for 3, 10 and 30 consecutive days before landslide
Antecedent precipitation can be used to determine when event was done.
landslides are likely to occur since it influences ground-
water condition and soil moisture. A key difficulty is to Calibrated antecedent rainfall
consider the period for accumulation of the precipitation in
order to use the antecedent rainfall measurements to predict The absolute antecedent rainfall during longer periods may
landslide occurrence. The literature reviews show varied not have a complete effect on landslide. The drainage and
accumulation periods that trigger landslides around the other processes decrease the effects of rainfall over time
globe. Chleborad (2003) considered 18 days (3-day land- (Crozier 1986). In order to consider this decrease in rainfall
slide-event rainfall and 15 days of antecedent rainfall). effect on landslides, Crozier (1986) proposed the following
Several other studies considered 3 days (Kim et al. 1991), equation for calibrated antecedent rainfall:
4 days (Heyerdahl et al. 2003) and 7, 10 and 15 days CARx KR1 K 2 R2 K n Rn 2
(Aleotti 2004). Pasuto and Silvano (1998) found best cor-
relation with landslide occurrence for the 15-day anteced- where CARx is calibrated antecedent rainfall for day x; K is
ent rainfall and Cardinali et al. (2006) found a relation an empirical (constant) parameter that depends on the
between landslide occurrences and the 34 months ante- draining capacity and hydrological properties of the study
cedent rainfalls. area (Capecchi and Focardi 1988). Generally, K ranges
However, a few authors (e.g., Aleotti 2004; Corominas from a value between 0.8 and 0.9. A good assumption of
2000; Corominas and Moya 1996; Brand et al. 1984) did this K value can be 0.9 (Marques et al. 2008) for a maxi-
mum of 30 antecedent days.
Marques et al. (2008) successfully used calibrated
antecedent rainfall in evaluating the triggering rainfall
conditions. They considered calibrated antecedent rainfall
for 5, 15 and 30 days and combined with corresponding
daily rainfall to assess the triggering threshold for studied
landslides in Portugal.
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102 Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
123
Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106 103
123
104 Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
Landslide ID9 and ID4 have higher calibrated rainfall I 40:5 lnD 162:5 with R2 = 0.83. Figure 7 shows
intensities with lower durations. Only 3 rainy days with a the rainfall amount on the landslide day and during the
rainfall rate of 123.7 mm/day were required to produce the corresponding previous 30 days of each landslide events.
landslide event ID04. Landslide ID10 and others show The major landslide events (ID04, ID09 and ID10) were
lower intensity of calibrated antecedent rainfall with higher closely related with the rainfalls, which precipitated on the
duration. This means that the absolute antecedent rainfall day of landslides or during the past 24 days (Fig. 7).
has more impact on landslide ID10. The regression anal- Therefore, the major landslides in the study area have a
ysis (Fig. 6) of the calibrated antecedent rainfall shows close relation with rainfall of high intensity and short
a relation of rainfall intensity (I) with duration (D) as duration. The analysis depicted that the last two major
Fig. 7 Rainfall amount on the landslide day and during the past 30 days before landslides of ID1 (a), ID4 (b), ID7 (c), ID8 (d), ID9 (e) and ID10
(f)
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Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106 105
landslide events in Chittagong City occurred mostly due to Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington,
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