0 valutazioniIl 0% ha trovato utile questo documento (0 voti)

155 visualizzazioni30 pagineBtech mechanical 2nd semester syllabus

Oct 03, 2017

© © All Rights Reserved

PDF, TXT o leggi online da Scribd

Btech mechanical 2nd semester syllabus

© All Rights Reserved

0 valutazioniIl 0% ha trovato utile questo documento (0 voti)

155 visualizzazioni30 pagineBtech mechanical 2nd semester syllabus

© All Rights Reserved

Sei sulla pagina 1di 30

Jammu and Kashmir.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY: ................................................... 3

EXPECTATION ......................................................................................... 4

INDEPENDENT EVENT ........................................................................... 5

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY .............................................................. 5

LAWS OF PROBABILITY:........................................................................ 5

THE ADDITION LAW OF PROBABILITY.............................................. 5

THE MULTIPLICATION LAW OF PROBABILITY ............................... 6

TYPES OF PROBABILITY:....................................................................... 8

MARGINAL PROBABILTY: .................................................................... 8

JOINT PROBABILTY:............................................................................... 9

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY: ............................................................. 9

BAYES THEOREM:................................................................................. 10

RANDOM VARIABLE:............................................................................. 12

DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS:................................... 13

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION: .............................. 15

GRAPHICAL INTERPRETATION ......................................................... 16

EXPECTATION:........................................................................................ 17

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION: ................................................................. 18

INDUSTRIAL INSPECTION................................................................... 21

POISSONS DISTRIBUTION: ................................................................. 23

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION: .................................................................... 25

INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY:

Probability is a concept which numerically measures the degree of uncertainty and

therefore, of uncertainty of the occurrence of events. The probability of something

happening is the likelihood or chance of its happening.

If an event A can happen in m ways, and fail in n ways, all these ways being equally

likely to occur, then the probability of the happening of A is

number of favourablecases m

total number of mutually exclusive and equally likely cases m n

m

mn

and 1 represents an absolute certainty. The probability of an event happening usually

lies somewhere between these two extreme values and is expressed either as a proper or

decimal fraction. Examples of probability are:

EXAMPLES PROBABILITY

If p is the probability of an event happening and q is the probability of the same event

not happening, then the total probability is p+q and is equal to unity, since it is an

absolute certainty that the event either does or does not occur, i.e.

p+q=1

EXPECTATION

the probability p of an event happening and the number of attempts made, n, i.e.

E=pn.

Thus, since the probability of obtaining a 3 upwards when rolling a fair dice is 16, the

expectation of getting a 3 upwards on four throws of the dice is 164, i.e. 23. Thus

expectation is the average occurrence of an event.

DEPENDANT EVENT

A dependent event is one in which the probability of an event happening affects the

probability of another event happening. Let 5 transistors be taken at random from a

batch of 100 transistors for test purposes, and the probability of there being a defective

transistor p1, be determined. At some later time, let another 5 transistors be taken at

random from the 95 remaining transistors in the batch and the probability of there being

a defective transistor p2, be determined. The value of p2 is different from p1 since batch

size has effectively altered from100 to 95, i.e. probability p2 is dependent on

probability p1. Since 5 transistors are drawn, and then another 5 transistors drawn

without replacing the first 5, the second random selection is said to be without

replacement.

INDEPENDENT EVENT

An independent event is one in which the probability of an event happening does not

affect the probability of another event happening. If 5 transistors are taken at random

from a batch of transistors and the probability of a defective transistor p1 is determined

and the process is repeated after the original 5 have been replaced in the batch to give

p2, then p1 is equal to p2. Since the 5 transistors are replaced between draws, the

second selection is said to be with replacement.

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

given that event A has already taken place. If A and B are independent events, then the

fact that event A has already occurred will not affect the probability of event B. If A and

B are dependent events, then event A having occurred will effect the probability of

event B.

LAWS OF PROBABILITY:

The addition law of probability is recognized by the word or joining the probabilities.

If pA is the probability of event A happening and pB is the probability of event B

happening, the probability of event A or event B happening is given by pA+ pB

(provided events A and B are mutually exclusive, i.e. A and B are events which cannot

occur together). Similarly, the probability of events A or B or C or . . .N happening is

given by

pA + pB + pC + + pN

The multiplication law of probability is recognized by the word and joining the

probabilities. If pA is the probability of event A happening and pB is the probability of

event B happening, the probability of event A and event B happening is given by pA

pB. Similarly, the probability of events A and B and C and . . .N happening is given by

pA pB pC pN

PROBLEMS

Problem 1:

Determine the probabilities of selecting at random

(a) a man, and

(b) a woman from a crowd containing 20 men and 33 women.

SOLUTION:

number of men

number in crowd

i.e. p = __20__

20+33

= 20 53 or 0.3774

number of women

number in crowd

i.e. q = __33__

20+33

= 33 53 or 0.6226

p = 20 and q = 33

53 53

p + q = 20 + 33 = 1

53 53

Problem 2.

Find the expectation of obtaining a 4 upwards with 3 throws of a fair dice.

SOLUTION:

Expectation is the average occurrence of an event and is defined as the probability times

the number of attempts. The probability, p, of obtaining a 4 upwards for one throw of

the dice is 1

6

Also, 3 attempts are made, hence n=3 and the expectation, E, is pn, i.e.

E = 1 3 = 12 or 0.50

6

TYPES OF PROBABILITY:

Probabilities may be marginal, joint or conditional. Understanding their differences and

how to manipulate among them is the key to success in understanding the foundations

of statistics.

MARGINAL PROBABILTY:

event. If A is an event, then the probability of an event occurring (p(A)) is marginal

probability. Example:

p(red) = 0.5

p(four)=1/13.

JOINT PROBABILTY:

It is the probability of the intersection of two or more events. If A and B are the events,

then the probability of event A and event B occurring is joint probability. The

probability of the intersection of A and B may be written p(A B). Example:

(There are two red fours in a deck of 52, the 4 of hearts and the 4 of diamonds).

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:

If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability p(A|B) is the probability of

event A occurring, given that event B occurs. Example:

given that you drew a red card, whats the probability that its a four

(p(four|red))=2/26=1/13.

The equation below is a means to manipulate among joint, conditional and marginal

probabilities. As you can see in the equation, the conditional probability of A given B

is equal to the joint probability of A and B divided by the marginal of B.

Lets use our card example to illustrate. We know that the conditional probability of a

four, given a red card equals 2/26 or 1/13. This should be equivalent to the joint

probability of a red and four (2/52 or 1/26) divided by the marginal P(red) = 1/2. And

low and behold, it works! As 1/13 = 1/26 divided by 1/2. For the diagnostic exam, you

should be able to manipulate among joint, marginal and conditional probabilities.

P( Aand B)

P( A | B)

P( B)

BAYES THEOREM:

1 2 3

and P( A | Bi ) are given, then

P( Bi ).P( A | Bi )

P( Bi | A)

P( Bi ) P( A | Bi )

PROOF:

P( ABi ) P( A) P( Bi | A) P( Bi ) P( A | Bi ) (1)

P( Bi ) P( A | Bi )

P( Bi | A) (2)

P( A)

Since the events A corresponds to B , B , B ,, Bn , we have by the addition law of

1 2 3

probability,

1 2

P( Bi ).P( A | Bi )

P( Bi | A)

P( Bi ) P( A | Bi )

Problem 3:

There are three bags: first containing 1 white, 2 red, 3 green balls; second 2 white,

3 red, 1 green balls and third 3 white, 1 red, 2 green balls. Two balls are drawn fro

a bag chosen at random. These are found to be one white and one red. Find the

probability that the balls so drawn came from the second bag.

SOLUTION:

Let B , B , B pertain to the first, second, third bags chosen and A: the two balls are

1 2 3

white and red.

1

Now P( B ) P( B ) P( B )

1 2 3 3

1

(1C 2C ) 2

1 1

6C 15

2

( 2C 3C ) 2 ( 3C 1C ) 1

Similarly P( A | B ) 1 1 , P( A | B ) 1 1

2 6C 5 3 6C 5

2 2

P( B ) P( A | B )

By Bayes theorem P( B | A) 2 2

2 P( B ) P( A | B ) P( B ) P( A | B ) P( B ) P( A | B )

1 1 2 2 3 3

1 2

6

3 5 .

1 2 1 2 1 1 11

3 15 3 5 3 5

RANDOM VARIABLE:

Suppose that to each point of a sample space we assign a number. We then have a

function defined on the sample space. This function is called a random variable (or

stochastic variable) or more precisely a random function (stochastic function). It is

usually denoted by a capital letter such as X or Y. In general, a random variable has

some specified physical, geometrical, or other significance.

EXAMPLE 2.1

Suppose that a coin is tossed twice so that the sample space is

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}. Let X represents the number of heads that can come up. With

each sample point we can associate a number for X as shown in Table 2-1. Thus for

example, in the case of HH (i.e., 2 heads), X = 2 while for TH (1 head), X = 1. It

follows that X is a random variable.

SAMPLE POINT HH HT TH TT

X 2 1 1 0

Table 2-1

It should be noted that many other random variables could also be defined on this

sample space, for example, the square of the number of heads or the number of heads

minus the number of tails. A random variable that takes on a finite or countable infinite

number of values is called a discrete random variable while one which takes on an

unaccountably infinite number of values is called a nondiscrete random variable.

Let X be a discrete random variable, and suppose that the possible values that it can

assume are given by x , x , x ,... arranged in some order. Suppose also that these values

1 2 3

are assumed with probabilities given by

P (X = x ) = f ( x ) k = 1, 2, . . . (1)

k k

distribution, given by

P (X = x) = f (x) (2)

k

In general, f(x) is a probability function if

1. f(x) 0

2. f ( x) 1

x

where the sum in 2 is taken over all possible values of x.

EXAMPLE 2.2

Find the probability function corresponding to the random variable X of Example

2.1.

SOLUTION

1 1 1 1

P( HH ) P( HT ) P(TH ) P(TT )

4 4 4 4

Then

1

P( X 0) P(TT )

4

1 1 1

P( X 1) P( HT TH ) P( HT ) P(TH )

4 4 2

1

P( X 2) P( HH )

4

x 0 1 2

f ( x) 1 1 1

4 2 4

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION:

continuous, if its distribution function may be represented as

x

F ( x) P( X x) f (u )du x (7)

1. f(x) 0

2. f ( x)dx =1

It follows from the above that if X is a continuous random variable, then the

probability that X takes on any one particular value is zero, whereas the interval

probability that X lies between two different values, say, a and b, is given by

b

P(a X b) f ( x)dx (8)

a

EXAMPLE 2.4

If an individual is selected at random from a large group of adult males, the

probability that his height X is precisely 68 inches (i.e., 68.000 . . . inches) would

be zero. However, there is a probability greater than zero than X is between

67.000 . . . inches and 68.500 . . . inches, for example.

A function f(x) that satisfies the above requirements is called a probability

function or probability distribution for a continuous random variable, but it is

more often called a probability density function or simply density function. Any

function f(x) satisfying Properties 1 and 2 above will automatically be a density

function, and required probabilities can then be obtained from (8).

GRAPHICAL INTERPRETATION

If f(x) is the density function for a random variable X, then we can represent

y=f(x) graphically by a curve as in Fig. 2-2. Since f(x) 0, the curve cannot fall

below the x axis. The entire area bounded by the curve and the x axis must be 1

because of Property 2. Geometrically the probability that X is between a and b,

i.e., P(a X b) , is then represented by the area shown shaded, in Fig. 2-2.

which increases from 0 to 1 and is represented by a curve as in Fig. 2-3.

EXPECTATION:

The mean value( ) of the probability distribution of a variate X is commomnly

known as its expectation and is denoted by E(X). If f(x) is the probability density

function of the variate X, then

xi f ( xi )

i

Or E ( X ) xf ( x)dx

E[ ( x)] ( xi ) f ( xi )

i

Or E[ ( x)] ( x) f ( x)dx

2 ( xi )2 f ( xi )

i

or 2 ( x )2 f ( x)dx

3. The rth moment about the mean (denoted by r ) is defined by

r ( xi )r f ( xi )

r ( x )r f ( x)dx

| xi | f ( xi )

Or | x | f ( x)dx

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION:

The binomial distribution deals with two numbers only, these being the

probability that an event will happen, p, and the probability that an event will not

happen, q. Thus, when a coin is tossed, if p is the probability of the coin landing

with a head upwards, q is the probability of the coin landing with a tail upwards.

p +q must always be equal to unity. A binomial distribution can be used for

finding, say, the probability of getting three heads in seven tosses of the coin, or

in industry for determining defect rates as a result of sampling. One way of

defining a binomial distribution is as follows:

if p is the probability that an event will happen and q is the probability that the

event will not happen, then the probabilities that the event will happen 0, 1, 2, 3, .

. . ,n times in n trials are given by the successive terms of the expansion of

(q p)n , taken from left to right.

q n nq n1 p q p q p

2! 3!

Problem 1:

Determine the probabilities of having (a) at least 1 girl and (b) at least 1 girl

and 1 boy in a family of 4 children, assuming equal probability of male and

female birth.

SOLUTION

The probability of a girl being born, p, is 0.5 and the probability of a girl not

being born (male birth), q, is also 0.5. The number in the family, n, is 4. From

above, the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 girls in a family of 4 are given by the

successive terms of the expansion of (q p)4 taken from left to right. From the

binomial expansion:

i.e. 0.54 = 0.0625

the probability of 1 girl is 4q3 p ,

i.e. 4 0.53 0.5 = 0.2500

i.e. 6 0.52 0.52 = 0.3750

i.e. 40.5 0.53 = 0.2500

i.e. 0.54 = 0.0625

(a) The probability of having at least one girl is the sum of the probabilities of

having 1, 2, 3 and 4 girls, i.e.

1(the probability of having no girls), i.e. 10.0625, giving 0.9375, as obtained

previously.)

(b) The probability of having at least 1 girl and 1 boy is given by the sum of the

probabilities of having: 1 girl and 3 boys, 2 girls and 2 boys and 3 girls and 2 boys, i.e.

0.2500+0.3750+0.2500=0.8750

1 (probability of having no girls + probability of having no boys), i.e.

12 0.0625=0.8750, as obtained previously.)

INDUSTRIAL INSPECTION

defective and q is the probability that the component is satisfactory. In this case, a

binomial distribution may be defined as:

of n components, drawn at random from a large batch of components, are

given by the successive terms of the expansion of (q p)n , taken from left to

right.

Problem 3:

A machine is producing a large number of bolts automatically. In a box of

these bolts, 95% are within the allowable tolerance values with respect to

diameter, the remainder being outside of the diameter tolerance values.

Seven bolts are drawn at random from the box. Determine the probabilities

that (a) two and (b) more than two of the seven bolts are outside of the

diameter tolerance values.

SOLUTION

Let p be the probability that a bolt is outside of the allowable tolerance values,

i.e. is defective, and let q be the probability that a bolt is within the tolerance

values, i.e. is satisfactory. Then p = 5%, i.e. 0.05per unit and q=95%, i.e. 0.95per

unit. The sample number is 7. The probabilities of drawing 0, 1, 2, . . . , n

defective bolts are given by the successive terms of the expansion of (q p)n ,

taken from left to right. In this problem

(q p)n = (0.95 0.05)7

(0.95)7 = 0.6983

7 (0.95)6 0.05 = 0.2573

21 (0.95)5 (0.05)2 = 0.0406

and so on.

(a) The probability that two bolts are outside of the diameter tolerance values is

0.0406

(b) To determine the probability that more than two bolts are defective, the sum

of the probabilities of 3 bolts, 4 bolts, 5 bolts, 6 bolts and 7 bolts being

defective can be determined. An easier way to find this sumis to find 1(sum

of 0 bolts, 1 bolt and 2 bolts being defective), since the sum of all the terms is

unity. Thus, the probability of there being more than two bolts outside of the

tolerance values is:

POISSONS DISTRIBUTION:

When the number of trials, n, in a binomial distribution becomes large (usually

taken as larger than 10), the calculations associated with determining the values

of the terms becomes laborious. If n is large and p is small, and the product np is

less than 5, a very good approximation to a binomial distribution is given by the

corresponding Poisson distribution, in which calculations are usually simpler.

The Poisson approximation to a binomial distribution may be defined as follows:

the probabilities that an event will happen 0, 1, 2,3,, n times in n trialsare

given by the successive terms of the expression

2 3

e 1 ....

2! 3!

Problem 6.

If 3% of the gearwheels produced by a company are defective, determine the

probabilities that in a sample of 80 gearwheels (a) two and (b) more than two

will be defective.

SOLUTION

small and the product np is 800.03, i.e. 2.4, which is less than 5.

Hence a Poisson approximation to a binomial distribution may be used. The

expectation of a defective gearwheel, = np = 2.4

The probabilities of 0, 1, 2, . . . defective gearwheels are given by the successive

terms of the expression

2 3

e 1 ....

2! 3!

2e

e , e , ,...

2!

e = e2.4 = 0.0907

e = 2.4 e2.4 = 0.2177

probability of 2 defective gearwheels is

2e 2.4e2.4

=.2613

2! 2!

(b) The probability of having more than 2 defective gearwheels is 1(the sum of

the probabilities of having 0, 1, and 2 defective gearwheels), i.e.

The principal use of a Poisson distribution is to determine the theoretical

probabilities when p, the probability of an event happening, is known, but q, the

probability of the event not happening is unknown. For example, the average

number of goals scored per match by a football team can be calculated, but it is

not possible to quantify the number of goals which were not scored. In this type

of problem, a Poisson distribution may be defined as follows:

the probabilities of an event occurring 0, 1, 2, 3, times are given by the

successive terms of the expression

2 3

e 1 ....

2! 3!

taken from left to right.

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION:

When data is obtained, it can frequently be considered to be a sample (i.e. a few

members) drawn at random from a large population (i.e. a set having many

members). If the sample number is large, it is theoretically possible to choose

class intervals which are very small, but which still have a number of members

falling within each class. A frequency polygon of this data then has a large

number of small line segments and approximates to a continuous curve.Such a

curve is called a frequency or a distribution curve.

An extremely important symmetrical distribution curve is called the normal

curve and is as shown in Fig. 58.1.

This curve can be described by a mathematical equation and is the basis of much

of the work done in more advanced statistics.

Many natural occurrences such as the heights or weights of a group of people, the

sizes of components produced by a particular machine and the life length of

certain components approximate to a normal distribution.

Figure 58.1

Normal distribution curves can differ from one another in the following four

ways:

(c) the variables having different values and different units and

(d) by having different areas between the curve and the horizontal axis.

(a) The mean value of the unstandardized curve is made the origin, thus

making the mean value x, zero.

This is done by letting

xx

z

x is the value of the variable, x is the mean value of the distribution and is

the standard deviation of the distribution.

(c) The area between the normal curve and the horizontal axis is made equal to

unity.

When a normal distribution curve has been standardized, the normal curve is

called a standardized normal curve or a normal probability curve, and any

normally distributed data may be represented by the same normal probability

curve. The area under part of a normal probability curve is directly proportional

to probability and the value of the shaded area shown in Fig. 58.2 can be

determined by evaluating:

z2

1 xx

e 2 dz, where z

2

Figure 58.2

Problem 1.

The mean height of 500 people is 170 cm and the standard deviation is 9 cm.

Assuming the heights are normally distributed, determine the number of

people likely to have heights between 150cm and 195cm.

SOLUTION

The mean value, x, is 170cm and corresponds to a normal standard variate value,

z, of zero on the standardized normal curve. A height of 150 cm has a z-value

given by

xx 150 170

z standard deviations, i.e. or 2.22 standard deviations.

9

Using a table of partial areas beneath the standardized normal curve , a z-value of

2.22 corresponds to an area of 0.4868 between the mean value and the ordinate

z=2.22. The negative z-value shows that it lies to the left of the z=0 ordinate.

This area is shown shaded in Fig. 58.3(a). Similarly, 195cm has a z-value of

195 170

that is 2.78 standard deviations. From Table 58.1, this value of z

9

corresponds to an area of 0.4973, the positive value of z showing that it lies to

the right of the z=0 ordinate. This area is shown shaded in Fig. 58.3(b). The total

area shaded in Figs. 58.3(a) and (b) is shown in Fig. 58.3(c) and is

0.4868+0.4973, i.e. 0.9841 of the total area beneath the curve.

that a person will have a height of between 150 and 195cm is 0.9841. For a group

of 500 people, 5000.9841, i.e. 492 people are likely to have heights in this

range. The value of 5000.9841 is 492.05, but since answers based on a normal

probability distribution can only be approximate, results are usually given correct

to the nearest whole number.

Figure 58.3

## Molto più che documenti.

Scopri tutto ciò che Scribd ha da offrire, inclusi libri e audiolibri dei maggiori editori.

Annulla in qualsiasi momento.