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Our portfolio consists of a great team of managers
guiding under-appreciated companies through
transformational moments in their history.
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Lollapalooza
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What if you could get this
200%
100%
150%
100%
50%
50%
0% 0%
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
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A Price Ben Graham Would Love
Price / NAV
0.65x / 65%
Price / Book
1.41x / 141%
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Powerful Value Drivers
Reinsurance capital
Value-Added Investor Less Investor Competition
Exceptional Management teams
ROIC Focus
Concentrated, Contrarian
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Why Does This Opportunity Exist?
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0%
5%
-15%
-10%
-5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Italy
China
Japan
Finland
Switzerland
Sri Lanka
Belgium
Israel
Denmark
Portugal
Europe
Czech
Germany
Sweden
Austria
Hong Kong
Spain
Australia
France
Singapore
India
Malaysia
UK
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Taiwan
South Korea
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Philippines
USA
Pakistan
YTD Stock Market Index Performance
South Africa
Indonesia
New Zealand
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Venezuela
Worst Performing Index in the World YTD
Thailand
Egypt
Hungary
Argentina
Turkey
Russia
Brazil
Consumer Confidence @ Record Highs
Italian Unemployment & Consumer Confidence
125 5.0%
120 6.0%
115 7.0%
110 8.0%
9.0%
105
10.0%
Better
100
11.0%
95 12.0%
90 13.0%
85 14.0%
80 15.0%
11/1/95
11/1/00
11/1/05
11/1/10
11/1/15
1/1/95
9/1/96
7/1/97
5/1/98
3/1/99
1/1/00
9/1/01
7/1/02
5/1/03
3/1/04
1/1/05
9/1/06
7/1/07
5/1/08
3/1/09
1/1/10
9/1/11
7/1/12
5/1/13
3/1/14
1/1/15
Confidence (LH) Unemployment (RH - Inverse)
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4.4% Revenue
from Italy
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Now a Significant Discount to NAV
70.00 45.0%
65.00
Discount (RH)
NAV (LH) 40.0%
60.00
55.00
35.0%
50.00
45.00 30.0%
40.00
35.00 Stock (LH) 25.0%
30.00
20.0%
25.00
20.00 15.0%
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Flashback to Markels Alterra Deal
$1,000 2.0x
1.9x
$900
1.8x
Stock Price (LH)
1.7x
$800
1.6x
$700 1.5x
Price / Book (RH) 1.4x
$600
1.3x
1.2x
$500
1.1x
$400 1.0x
11/6/12
11/6/13
11/6/14
11/6/15
1/6/12
3/6/12
5/6/12
7/6/12
9/6/12
1/6/13
3/6/13
5/6/13
7/6/13
9/6/13
1/6/14
3/6/14
5/6/14
7/6/14
9/6/14
1/6/15
3/6/15
5/6/15
7/6/15
9/6/15
1/6/16
3/6/16
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We Dont Want the Discount to Narrow
45.00 60%
NAV Per Share
40.00
50%
35.00
Discount to NAV (RH)
30.00 40%
25.00
30%
20.00
Stock Price
15.00 20%
Repurchase Volume
10.00
10%
5.00
0.00 0%
1/1/13 2/1/13 3/1/13 4/1/13 5/1/13 6/1/13 7/1/13 8/1/13
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Concentrated Private Equity Portfolio
NAV: 50.41
14.98
Vs.
26.05 32.80
10.28
(35% Discount)
7.36 Net Debt
Others 2.96
10.28 All figures per EXO share
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History of Value-Add Management
March 2007 May 2015
160%
144.6%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60% 53.8%
40%
20% 12.1%
0%
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Best-In-Class Underwriting
140.0%
Berkshire PartnerRe Munich Re
130.0%
Everest Re Swiss Re Hannover Re
120.0%
Better
110.0%
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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20-Year Pre-Investment Combined Ratio
98.9% 99.0%
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98.9% Free Capital
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Reasonable Price Paid
$9,000
$8,000
0.86x
$7,000 1.08x
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Cash Paid Tangible Book Value Reserve Redundancies
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Capital Leaving Industry
Estimated Global Reinsurance Capacity
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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CEOs Focus Matters
200% 184.1%
150%
100% 71.2%
57.8% 53.9%
50% 36.6% 32.2% 28.9% 22.7%
4.4%
0%
-8.3% -17.8% -20.1%
-50%
Marchionne Mulally Toyoda Zetsche Ghosn- Ghosn - Winterko Mueller Tavares Fields Barra Krueger
Renault Nissan rn
6/04 9/06 6/09 1/06 5/05 6/01 1/07 9/15 3/14 7/14 1/14 5/15
ROIC Global Crisis Restru- Global Crisis #1 in Crisis Crisis Mobility Product Electric
Platform Mgmt cturing Platform Mgmt World Mgmt Mgmt
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A Junkie Who No One Believes
FCA's Projected EBIT
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2015 2016 2017 2018
Estimates Plan
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Who Has Missed A Few Targets
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Capital Redirected
1. New Product
2. Reduced Incentives on Old Vehicles
3. Commodities Savings
4. Balance Sheet Savings
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1. New Product Next 12 Months
Base Case Base EBIT % of 2015 Bear Case Bear EBIT % of 2015
Model Volumes Contribution EBIT Volumes Contribution EBIT
Alfa Romeo Giulia 76.6k 361.7 7.1% 54.8k 258.6 5.1%
Maserati Levante 25.2k 362.1 7.1% 11.2k 161.5 3.2%
Fiat Toro (Brazil only) 69.1k 290.7 5.7% 30.3k 127.7 2.5%
Chinese Local Jeeps
190.0k 323.3 6.3% 152.0k 258.7 5.1%
(Cherokee & Renegade)
Fiat Tipo 71.7k 286.8 5.7% 43.5k 152.3 3.0%
2016 New Segments 432.6k 1,624.6 31.8% 291.8k 958.8 18.8%
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2015 2016 2017
-5,000
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~75% of 2015 EBIT Incremental
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Balance Sheet Strengthening
Net Leverage
1.60x
1.40x
1.20x
1.00x
0.80x
0.60x
0.40x
Historical Forecasted
0.20x
0.00x
-0.20x
30.00
25.00
21.00
19.84
20.00
15.00
10.00
Current
5.00 Price
0.00
Average Ford Valuation Average GM Valuation
2016 2017
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Agricultural Coiled Spring
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Production < Retail Demand
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Corn Still Below Economic Break-even
$9.00
Corn Price
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00 Breakeven Price
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
0 4.00
6/16/06 6/16/07 6/16/08 6/16/09 6/16/10 6/16/11 6/16/12 6/16/13 6/16/14 6/16/15
3.00
-50,000
2.00
-100,000
1.00
-150,000 0.00
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Winding Up the Coiled Spring
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Significant Operating Leverage
7.7% 31.2%
2015 EBIT Margin Incremental Margin
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Normalization Drives Significant Upside
$1,432 +$1,294
Ag Demand
2015 Industrial EBIT
Normalization
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Is Ferrari a Luxury Company?
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Limited Editions Outperform the S&P 500
25.0%
19.4%
20.0% 18.6%
15.9%
15.0% 13.0%
11.9%
0.0%
250 GTO 288 GTO F40 F50 Enzo 599 GTO
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Even Looking at the Worst Performer
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What other products appreciate
in value after sale?
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Demand Recession-Proof
40%
29% 2008 2009 Cumulative
30%
20% 18%
10% 7%
3% -6% -9%
0%
Porsche
Bentley
Lamborghini*
Prada
Burberry
Ferrari
Daimler
Hermes
BMW
LVMH
-10%
-20%
-21%
-30%
-32%
-40%
-41%
-50%
-60%
-59%
-70%
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2015
Incremental
Car EBIT
Deliveries
margin
+6% 76%
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FCF > Double
8.00 14.0%
7.00 12.0%
FCF per share (LH) FCF Yield (RH)
6.00 5.40 5.46
5.17 10.0%
5.00
8.0%
4.00 3.65
6.0%
3.00
2.28
1.89 1.92 1.92 4.0%
2.00
1.00 2.0%
0.00 0.0%
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
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Cheapest In Class
30.0x 27.6x
15 EBITDA 16 EBITDA 17 EBITDA
25.0x
20.0x
15.3x
15.0x
11.0x
10.0x 8.8x 8.9x 8.6x 8.3x
5.3x
5.0x
0.0x
Tesla Hermes Man U Burberry Prada Richemont LVMH Ferrari
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Putting the Pieces Together
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Concentrated Private Equity Portfolio
NAV: 50.41
14.98
Vs.
10.28 26.05 32.80
(35% Discount)
7.36 Net Debt
Others 2.96
10.28 All figures per EXO share
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NAV Set to Triple
NAV: 151.03
26.05
45.50
72.00 Net Debt
10.28
16.01 All figures per EXO share
Others 2.96
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Right in Every Way
Time Strategy Price
70.00 45.0%
65.00
40.0%
60.00
of capital 45.00
40.00
30.0%
25.0%
35.00
30.00
20.0%
Are all coiled 25.00
20.00 15.0%
springs 3G-Style
11/2/15
1/2/15
3/2/15
5/2/15
7/2/15
9/2/15
1/2/16
3/2/16
5/2/16
Focus
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Learn from Others Mistakes
20k Class A BRK Shares Sold at ~$35
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Set it and Forget It.
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