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Usefulness of Postexercise Ankle-Brachial Index to Predict

All-Cause Mortality
Mobeen A. Sheikh, MDa,*, Deepak L. Bhatt, MDb, Jianbo Li, PhDc, Songhua Lin, MSc, and
John R. Bartholomew, MDd
Peripheral arterial disease predicts future cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. Con-
ventional methods of assessment might underestimate its true prevalence. We sought to
determine whether a postexercise ankle-brachial index (ABI), not only improved peripheral
arterial disease detection, but also independently predicted death. This was an observational
study of consecutive patients referred for ABI measurement before and after the fixed-grade
treadmill or symptom-limited exercise component to a noninvasive vascular laboratory from
January 1990 to December 2000. The subjects were classified into 2 groups. Group 1 included
patients with an ABI of >0.85 before and after exercise, and group 2 included patients with a
normal ABI at rest but <0.85 after exercise. A total of 6,292 patients underwent ABI mea-
surements with exercise during the study period. Propensity score matching of the groups was
performed to minimize observational bias. Overall mortality, as determined using the United
States Social Security death index, was the end point. The 10-year mortality rate of groups 1
and 2 was 32.7% and 41.2%, respectively. An abnormal postexercise ABI result independently
predicted mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.58, p 0.008).
Additional independent predictors of mortality were age, male gender, diabetes, and hyper-
tension. After the exclusion of patients with a history of cardiovascular events, the predictive
value of an abnormal postexercise ABI remained statistically significant (hazard ratio 1.67, 95%
confidence interval 1.29 to 2.17, p <0.0001). In conclusion, our results have shown that the
postexercise ABI is a powerful independent predictor of all-cause mortality and provides
additional risk stratification beyond the ABI at rest. 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
(Am J Cardiol 2011;107:778 782)

A diagnosis of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) serves prognostic value of the postexercise ABI among patients
as a marker for systemic atherosclerosis. The National Cho- referred for testing with exercise for clinical reasons. We
lesterol Education Panel guidelines1 have recognized PAD also sought to determine whether an abnormal postexercise
as a disease equivalent to the presence of coronary artery ABI results was an independent predictor of death and could
disease (CAD). This serves to highlight the newfound ap- potentially identify a population at greater mortality risk
preciation for a PAD diagnosis in the cardiovascular risk that would otherwise have been missed using the conven-
assessment and determining the vigor of preventive strate- tional at rest ABI measurements.
gies. The ankle-brachial index (ABI) is a useful tool to
screen for PAD; however, conventional ABI measurements
have been obtained in the at rest state and might underes- Methods
timate the true prevalence of PAD. Although it has been Consecutive patients referred to the Cleveland Clinic
recognized in clinical practice that obtaining a measurement noninvasive vascular laboratory from January 1990 to De-
of the ABI after exercise might improve the sensitivity of cember 2000 for either complete pulse volume recordings of
PAD detection,2 the postexercise ABI has not thus far been the lower extremities or standard ABI measurement before
validated as a screening test nor has the association with and after a fixed-grade treadmill protocol or symptom-lim-
all-cause mortality been determined in a United States- ited exercise test were considered for analysis. The patients
based population. In the present study, we assessed the had to be 40 years old and residents of the United States
with a valid Social Security number. The indication for
testing was at the sole discretion of the referring physician.
For the purposes of the present study, the patients were
a
Interventional Cardiac and Vascular Service, The Medical Group, divided into 2 groups according to their ABI result: group 1,
Beverly, Massachusetts; bDepartment of Cardiology, Veterans Affairs Bos- a normal ABI of 0.85 both at rest and after exercise; and
ton Healthcare System, Integrated Interventional Cardiovascular Program, group 2, a normal ABI at rest that was abnormal (0.85) in
Brigham and Womens Hospital, and Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarc-
either limb after exercise. The exclusion criteria were a
tion Study Group, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; and
Departments of cBiostatistics and Epidemiology and dCardiovascular Med-
history of lower limb revascularization, either surgical or
icine, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio. Manuscript received August 15, percutaneous, the lack of pressure values secondary to com-
2010; manuscript received and accepted October 19, 2010. pletely or partially calcified arteries or an inaudible Doppler
*Corresponding author: Tel: (617) 860-3536; fax: (978) 232-7027. signal, unilateral studies, and nonatherosclerotic etiologies
E-mail address: msheikhmd@gmail.com (M.A. Sheikh). for lower extremity occlusive vascular disease.

0002-9149/11/$ see front matter 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. www.ajconline.org
doi:10.1016/j.amjcard.2010.10.060
Miscellaneous/Postexercise ABI 779

At testing, the patient information, including demo- Table 1


graphic data, pulse pressure measurements, and risk factor Demographic and risk factor profile of patients in groups 1 and 2 after
profile, were stored in an institutional review board-ap- propensity score matching
proved vascular laboratory database. Additional data were Variable Group 1 Group 2 p
collected, if required, by reviewing the electronic and paper (n 713) (n 713) Value
medical records and adding to the database in a manner that Men 484 (67.9%) 467 (65.5%) 0.3395
protected patient confidentiality. The criteria for the various Race
risk factors were as follows. CAD was defined as present if White 659 (92.4%) 664 (93.1%) 0.6090
the patient had a history of angina, congestive heart failure, Black 47 (6.6%) 44 (6.2%) 0.7452
or myocardial infarction or had undergone percutaneous Age (years) 64.5 (9.2) 64.7 (9.5) 0.6745
coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting. 4049 58 (8.1%) 59 (8.3%)
Similarly, a history of a cerebrovascular accident or abdom- 5059 149 (20.9%) 159 (22.3%)
inal aortic aneurysm was defined as a history of stroke, 6069 302 (42.4%) 259 (36.3%)
transient ischemic attack, or previous carotid endarterec- 70 204 (28.5%) 236 (33.1%)
Smoker 21 (3.0%) 25 (3.5%) 0.5488
tomy and previous identification on suitable imaging studies
Hypertension 230 (32.3%) 234 (32.8%) 0.8211
or previous surgical repair, respectively. The assessment for Diabetes mellitus 87 (12.2%) 91 (12.8%) 0.7486
hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia was determined Coronary artery disease 236 (33.1%) 243 (34.1%) 0.6947
by a combination of questioning at testing, chart review, and Cerebrovascular accident 69 (9.7%) 798 (10.9%) 0.4332
medication use. Smoking history was determined by self- Abdominal aortic aneurysm 39 (5.5%) 41 (5.8%) 0.8180
reported current use at testing. Hyperlipidemia 126 (17.7%) 129 (18.1%) 0.8358
Doppler-derived systolic pressures at the level of the
Group 1, patients with normal ankle-brachial index at rest and after
brachial artery and posterior tibial and dorsalis pedis arteries exercise, group 2: patients with normal ankle-brachial index at rest but
were obtained by recording the level at which the first abnormal after exercise.
Doppler sound was heard after deflation of the cuff placed
over the upper arm and ankle, respectively. The index was
calculated using the greater of the 2 ankle pressures (pos- Table 2
terior tibial or dorsalis pedis) obtained on each leg, with the Demographic and risk factor profile of patients in groups 1 and 2
greater of the brachial pressures. The patients exercised on Variable Group 1 Group 2 p Value
a treadmill for either 5 minutes or until the onset of leg pain (n 1,700) (n 716)
that limited them from continuing. The exercise was also
Men 960 (56.5%) 470 (65.36%) 0.0001
terminated by the onset of any cardiopulmonary symptoms,
Race
especially if these were the principal restriction to exercise. White 1,453 (85.5%) 667 (93.3%) 0.0001
Once the exercise had been completed, the patient returned Black 216 (12.7%) 44 (6.2%) 0.0001
to the bed in the supine position and both ankle pressures Age (years) 63.9 (10.6) 64.7 (9.5) 0.0729
were obtained (first in the symptomatic extremity or the 4049 213 (12.5%) 59 (8.2%)
extremity with the lower pressure at rest) followed by the 5059 362 (21.3%) 159 (22.2%)
brachial pressure in the arm with the greater pressure at rest. 6069 601 (35.4%) 262 (36.6%)
The ABI thus obtained was referred to as the postexercise 70 524 (30.8%) 236 (33.0%)
ABI in the present study. When the patients had undergone Smoker 27 (1.6%) 28 (3.9%) 0.0005
more than one test during the study period, only the first was Hypertension 451 (26.5%) 237 (33.1%) 0.0011
Diabetes mellitus 161 (9.5%) 92 (12.9%) 0.0133
taken. The United States Social Security death index was
Coronary artery disease 392 (23.1%) 246 (34.4%) 0.0001
used to match all subjects to their records according to name Cerebrovascular accident 101 (5.9%) 79 (11.0%) 0.0001
and Social Security number. The vital status was deter- Abdominal aortic aneurysm 64 (3.8%) 43 (6.0%) 0.0145
mined as of May 2007. Hyperlipidemia 194 (11.4%) 131 (18.3%) 0.0001
The continuous data are displayed as the mean SD.
The categorical data are displayed as frequencies and per- Group 1, patients with normal ankle-brachial index at rest and after
exercise, group 2: patients with normal ankle-brachial index at rest but
centages within the population. The continuous data were
abnormal after exercise.
analyzed using the nonparametric Wilcoxon test and cate-
gorical data using the chi-square test. Survival analysis was
done using Cox proportional hazard modeling, adjusted for observational nature of the present study. The propensity
confounding factors. The proportionality assumption was score matching was done in all aspects, except for their
tested with all time-dependent covariates simultaneously. postexercise ABI results, using a greedy algorithm.3 This
The relative risks (hazard ratio) were estimated and 95% was accomplished using a nonparsimonious logistic regres-
confidence intervals given. Patient age at testing, gender, sion model, with all available covariates included to derive
race, and history of CAD, cerebrovascular accident, smok- a propensity score for patients with an abnormal postexer-
ing, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, abdominal aor- cise ABI result, and then using the propensity scores to
tic aneurysm, and appropriate transformations were in- match those from group 2 to the patients in group 1. Patients
cluded in the modeling. with missing values were excluded from matching and ad-
The patients from group 2 were matched one-to-one to ditional analysis. The resulting matched groups were com-
the patients from group 1 using propensity scores before pared for each covariate to confirm the similarity between
survival analysis to minimize any bias introduced by the the 2 groups (Table 1). The propensity score was also
780 The American Journal of Cardiology (www.ajconline.org)

Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier curves of mortality rates for matched groups 1 and 2 from testing. Patients in both groups had normal ABI values at rest. Patients
in group 2 had an ABI of 0.85 after exercise, and patients in group 1 had maintained a normal ABI value even after exercise and served as the control group.

Table 3 After matching, 1,426 patients (713 each in group 1 and 2),
Statistically significant independent predictors among propensity score as defined in the Methods section, were included in the
matched patients
present study.
Predictor HR (95% CI) p Value The baseline demographic and risk factor profiles of the
Postexercise ankle-brachial index 1.67 (1.292.17) 0.0001
matched and unmatched patient groups are listed in Tables
in patients with no history of 1 and 2. The mean patient age was 64.1 10.3 years, and
cardiovascular events 40.8% were women. Notable differences were present be-
Hypertension 1.55 (1.231.96) 0.0002 tween the 2 groups before matching. The subjects in group
Age per decade 1.54 (1.381.71) 0.0001 2 had a greater percentage of white men and were more
Male gender 1.37 (1.061.75) 0.014 likely to be older, have a history of CAD, cerebrovascular
Postexercise ABI 1.34 (1.071.58) 0.008 accident, or abdominal aortic aneurysm, take medications
Diabetes mellitus 1.34 (1.011.77) 0.044
for hyperlipidemia, hypertension, or diabetes, and be cur-
Group 1, patients with normal ankle-brachial index at rest and after rent smokers at testing. This bias was minimized by match-
exercise, group 2: patients with normal ankle-brachial index at rest but ing the patients from group 2 with those from group 1 using
abnormal after exercise. propensity scores (Table 1).
CI confidence interval; HR hazard ratio. During a mean duration of 6.9 3.2 years from the date
of testing, a total of 416 deaths occurred in both matched
included in the Cox proportional hazard model in the anal- groups, 189 in group 1 and 227 in group 2. In the propensity
ysis. All the analyses were done using the SAS, version 8.2, score-matched patients, an abnormal postexercise ABI re-
statistical package (SAS, Cary, North Carolina). sult was a strong independent predictor of mortality from all
causes, with a hazard ratio of 1.3 (95% confidence interval
1.07 to 1.58, p 0.008). The 5- and 10-year mortality rate
Results for group 1 and 2 was 15.4% and 17% and 32.7% and
From January 1990 to December 2000, 11,295 patients 41.2%, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier curve graphically
underwent either complete or limited lower extremity pulse demonstrated the increased mortality of patients in group 2
volume recording studies with ABI measurement at the (Figure 1). The independent clinical predictors of death are
Cleveland Clinic noninvasive vascular laboratory. Of these, summarized in Table 3. An abnormal postexercise ABI
6,292 were performed with a fixed-grade treadmill or symp- result was as strong a predictor of mortality as diabetes in
tom-limited exercise component. For the purposes of the the present analysis.
present study, the patients with an abnormal ABI at rest Similar results were obtained when the patients with any
were not considered. A total of 2,416 patients met the history of cardiovascular events (CAD, cerebrovascular ac-
inclusion criteria according to the postexercise ABI results. cident, or abdominal aortic aneurysm) were excluded from
Miscellaneous/Postexercise ABI 781

both groups and subjected to the same analysis (hazard ratio at rest ABI values in patients 60 years old. Very limited
1.67, 95% confidence interval 1.29 to 2.17, p 0.0001). epidemiologic information has been available on what per-
Thus, for the prediction of mortality, adding the exercise centage of patients with a normal ABI value at rest would
component to the ABI measurement added incremental in- have abnormal findings after exercise, although 2 recent
formation in both patients with and without a history of studies have reported data that ranged from 31%19 to
cardiovascular event. 86.2%.20 However, neither of these studies was population
based. A normal subject should maintain or increase the
Discussion ankle systolic pressure even with moderate exercise levels.
The key is early detection, and when an area of narrowing
The results from the present study have demonstrated exceeds 50% in terms of diameter reduction, the systolic
that the postexercise ABI might not simply help in diagnos- pressure will decrease beyond the site of involvement.
ing PAD in more patients but could independently identify Stress testing has commonly been used for the evaluation of
patients at a greater mortality risk who would have re- cardiac performance, because it has been recognized to
mained unidentified using conventional testing. It must be provide an enhanced index of myocardial perfusion. The
re-emphasized that the diagnosis of PAD is important, not principles are similar for the legs.
only from a lower extremity standpoint, but also as a marker The findings of our study could also have important
of systemic atherosclerosis. public health and economic implications. The National
It has been demonstrated that PAD is a marker of future Cholesterol Education Panel (in establishing the Adult
cardiovascular-related mortality, independent of both con- Treatment Guidelines) has taken the important step to in-
ventional risk factors and baseline cardiovascular disease.4,5 clude the presence of PAD as a CAD equivalent, similar to
The reason for this greater mortality rate is poorly under- diabetes. It is important to note that no conditions in these
stood. Various hypotheses have been investigated, some of guidelines were set forth in terms of the presence or absence
which included systemic endothelial dysfunction,6,7 ele- of symptoms. Currently, reimbursement for ABI testing
vated levels of C-reactive protein,8 other related inflamma- under Medicare guidelines is only allowed if the patient had
tory markers,9 increased levels of white blood cells,10 en- a history of symptoms secondary to lower limb ischemia.
hanced platelet activation,1113 and hemostatic factors, such However, symptoms have been poorly predictive, and one
as plasma fibrinogen and von Willebrand factor.14 needs to use maximum objective strategies to improve PAD
In an age in which increasing emphasis has been placed detection, considering its mortality implications, such as
on estimating the risk of future cardiovascular events, it was were demonstrated in our study using the postexercise ABI.
surprising that a predictor as potent as PAD has not been Furthermore, the exercise portion for diagnostic purposes
routinely included in risk factor analyses. A part of the does not necessarily have to be a treadmill protocol but
continued underrecognition could have been because only a could just as easily be performed by having patients walk
fraction of patients with PAD are symptomatic,15 and, in down the office hallway or even perform active pedal plan-
most cases, their symptoms will not be that of classic in- tar flexion (the details of the latter testing technique have
termittent claudication.15,16 However, even patients with been previously published21). Only a handful of studies
symptomatic PAD have been treated less aggressively in have examined the prognostic role of postexercise ABI
terms of risk factor modification and medical therapy than measurements in the clinical setting. Two such studies dem-
those with other manifestations of atherosclerotic disease, onstrated it to be of value in identifying failing lower ex-
such as CAD.17 Additionally, if we were to wait for the tremity angioplasty,22,23 and another study showed that a
development of symptoms, it might be already too late. This postexercise ABI did not add prognostic information24 It is
fact has been demonstrated in an earlier study at our insti- imperative to note the patients in these studies already had
tution in which all patients presenting for lower extremity previously diagnosed PAD, determined by either abnormal
revascularization surgery also underwent diagnostic coro- ABI values at rest or percutaneous revascularization, both of
nary angiography. Only 10% of these patients had angio- which were exclusion criteria in our study. A more contem-
graphic evidence of normal coronary arteries.18 porary publication from Europe, consisting of patients with
The measurement of the ABI does add a fair degree of both abnormal and normal at rest ABI values, also demon-
objectivity to the diagnosis of PAD; however, it was our strated increased mortality in the abnormal postexercise
hypothesis that an ABI measured in the at rest state would ABI cohort.20 Although the patients with abnormal postex-
be analogous to ruling out CAD using an at rest electrocar- ercise ABI values in that study were a part of a subgroup
diogram. Although abnormal findings on an electrocardio- analysis, it was also their contention that adding the exercise
gram at rest would be suggestive of CAD, normal findings portion to the ABI measurement adds incremental prognos-
by no means rule it out. The findings from an exercise tic information in terms of mortality prediction.
electrocardiogram will be much more sensitive. In light of We sought to prove that in patients with appropriate risk
the impressive statistics supporting the predictive role of factors and a high index of suspicion for PAD (determined
PAD in terms of cardiovascular morbidity and all-cause by typical or atypical symptoms), an at rest ABI value alone
mortality, it was our contention that a more sensitive mea- would not conclusively exclude PAD. The use of postexer-
sure of PAD detection, such as that afforded by a postex- cise ABI testing might help identify a subgroup of patients
ercise ABI, could identify an additional population of pa- with a normal ABI value at rest who have a CAD risk
tients worthy of secondary preventive measures that might equivalent and subsequent greater mortality, in a noninva-
otherwise be missed. The clinical effect of the ABI has been sive and cost-effective manner. How this approach compares
considered limited owing to the low prevalence of abnormal with other modalities for the early detection of atherosclerotic
782 The American Journal of Cardiology (www.ajconline.org)

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