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Is There An Earthquake

Migration Global Pattern? UnB
Aroldo M. M. dos Santos, George S. Frana, Andr G. da Silveira, Gregorio V. Frigeri, Giuliano S. Marotta
Grupo de Pesquisar Sismicidade Induzida e Natural/CNPq Observatrio Sismolgico - Universidade de Braslia
Universidade de Cuiab
Abstract Identifying the Earthquake Migration 4 - Santiago Del Estero to Tonga [Flinn and
Engdahl regions - Santiago Del Estero, 132 - Santiago Del Seismic Obs. Obs.
Travel time Travel time
Distances Distances
of magnitudes
Migration Global Pattern
Earthquake migration patterns before large earthquake N Visual Aut. (days) of magnitudes
Estero Prov., Arg., Tonga,171 - South Of Fiji Islands, 173 Pattern Visual Aut. Visual () Visual () Aut.
(days) Visual
were proposed by Mogi, (1968). The existence of the cor- Tonga Islands and 174 Tonga Islands Region].
We used the data from the catalogs covering a time peri- Xizang
relation between earthquakes over distances that show 1 15 171 1.070.16 2.532.18 162.321.49 155.694.09 0.030.15 -0.020.30
od from 1998 to 2011 and selected four seismic patterns Bolvia
probable global interdependence is a theme that is cer- Bolvia
that had almost constants and similar magnitudes. Each 7 157 0.680.15 2.312.05 160.651.03 155.574.03 0.030.13 0.020.31
tainly one of the most intriguing in field of seismology. Xizang
Seismic pattern was named according to a Flinn-Engdahl 2 Fiji - Peru
In this job, we will present the phenomenology of earth- 44 0.280.07 103.260.81 0.080.06
Region (Flinn et al., 1974). For this work we present the Fiji171
quake migration global seismic pattern empirically, in or- 255 0.410.33 98.081.41 0.020.30
migrations (Figure 1) of Vanuatu-North Japan, Fiji-Peru, to Peru
der to ensure statistically the correlation of long range and Fiji 181
Bolivia-Xizang and Santiago-Tonga. 411 0.320.27 98.661.31 0.050.30
lead to confrontation these seismic patterns. We used the to Peru
USGS catalog. We found that the pair of events that have Parameters and Correlations 3
49 625 0.200.05 0.480.47 59.241.29 59.061.67 -0.200.06 -0.180.30
a good correlation are confirmed statistically. To define the precision of the selected seismic patterns we Santiago
As Shebalin (1996) shown the earthquake chain, we show defined mathematical models to establish a linear correla- 4
5 24 20.649.61 0.420.47 112.694.47 99.321.67 -0.500.430 -0.130.40
that first stage of the earthquake prediction correlation tion for seismic events pairs based on observations of time 8 0.610.48 98.651.44 -0.160.18
for large distances. (T1 e T2), epicenter [P1(l1,j1) and P2(l2,j1)], depth(h1
and h2) and magnitude (M1 and M2). Thus, were defined
as parameters to be determined the variations between
Introduction distance of epicenter, magnitude, and travel time between
Earthquake migration patterns before large earthquake the events (T, M and D).
were proposed by Mogi (1968) and the existence of the cor- T2 = T1 + T (01) Manually collected data is used as the basis for automation and consolidation of probable seismic migration using the
relation between earthquakes over distances show proba- P2 = P1 + D (02) Flinn-Engdahl region as accurately as possible. It was observed that the pairs of consequent events over magnitude are
ble global interdependence (Romanowicz 1993, Shebalin M2 = M1 + M (03) well correlated. Only migration 4, manually collected, showed inconsistency with the value obtained automatically, how-
2006). Others studies of spatio-temporal changes in seis- Assuming that the parameters are independent of each ever it was still possible to observe a probable migration pattern. The data collection showed that the migration path 1
has forward and reverse, with automated values greater than the average collected manually, one for the direct path with
micity prior to large earthquakes (Gutenberg and Rich- other, we used the mean and standard deviation as sta- an average travel time of 2.5 days and 2.3 for the reverse path. The other migrations demonstrated values below 0.6 days
ter, 1954; Keilis-Borok and Malinovskaya, 1964; Prozorov tistical information for the pair events, and as criteria for (~ 14 hours), it can be directly correlated with the distance of migration. Migration 2 was separated, as they are in dif-
and Schreider, 1990; Shaw et al., 1997; Jaume and Sykes, selecting event pairs automatically we used the standard ferent regions Flinn-Engdahl, however did not show big difference. Migration 3 remained with the manual collection
1999; Keilis-Borok, 2003, Wu et al., 2008) also show the deviation as the threshold of the selected data. and migration 4, was separated according to depth, with a low number of observations, but we can infer that the travel
evidences of long-range correlation to large earthquakes. time is greater for those depths. Graphs were made Ncum (cumulative number of earthquake the day versus days), em-
phasizing the probability of migration patterns. The next step is to test the correlation between various parameters to
This theme is certainly one of the most intriguing in field
of seismology, and might explain this probable correla- Results ensure the migration of real events and set more migration paths.

tion and identify the patterns earlier proposed. There were two processes, the first by visual observation Conclusion
(manual) where pairs of events from the catalogue (from
The study of earthquakes forecasting/prediction seemed to be a path without solution, bringing several attempts to
2004-2011) were selected, and the second was through the find consistent predictions, such as the precursors of major events, which seemed to be just a regional solution with-
Objective same catalogue, but with automatically selected pairs of out demonstrating a global effect correlation. Recently, a new methodology has been identified in earthquake forecast,
events, considering only the first subsequent event (1998 crediting a new step for seismology. Thus, this work aims to a new understanding of the behavior of earthquakes based
We intended to prove the hypothesis that earthquakes and to 2011), and then determining the parameters (Table 1). on empirical observation of seismic catalogues of the leading world seismology centers such as European Mediterra-
seismic migration may be related to different points in In this work we separated four migration patterns: nean Seismological Centre (EMSC), National Earthquake Information Center United Stated Geological Survey (NE-
long distances around the world MOGI (1968). From this
point the seismic migration patterns could be identified,
Migration 1 - Xizang to Bolivia [Flinn and Engdahl regions References IC-USGS), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ)
- Xizang, 305 (Western Xizang-India Border Region) and Flinn, E.A., Engdahl, E.R. and Hill, A.R., 1974, Seismic and geographical regionalization,
allowing its identification before the major earthquakes 306 (Xizang), Bolivia, 124 (Chile-Bolivia border region) Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 64, p. 771-993. The seismic migration model proposed is still under development. The monitoring results found on the websites of
occur. One can also identify the existence of correlation and 125 (Southern Bolivia)].
Gutenberg, B., Richter, C.F., 1954. Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena. Haf-
ner, New York. USGS, were fundamental to the research. Doing the opposite direction to the current research models, using the prac-
Migration 2 - Fiji to Peru [Flinn and Engdahl regions - Fiji, Jaume, S.C., Sykes, L.R., 1999. Evolving toward a critical point: a review of accelerating seismic tice as a means of empirical evidence, along with the media, we forced a deeper inquiry regarding our problem: Is There
between these earthquakes over distances, showing prob- moment/energy release prior to large and great earthquakes. Pure Appl. Geophys. 155, 279306.
An Earthquake Migration Global Pattern?
able global interdependence. 171 South of Fiji Islands and 181 - Fiji Islands Region, Keilis-Borok, V.I., 2003. Fundamentals of earthquake prediction: four paradigms. In: Kei-
lis-Borok, V.I., Soloviev, A.A. (Eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake
Peru, 108 - Off Coast Of Northern Peru, 109 - Near Coast Prediction. Springer- Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 136.

Keilis-Borok, V.I., Malinovskaya, L.N., 1964. One irregularity in the occurrence of strong
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Earthquake Migration
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Mogi, K., 1968, Source locations of elastic shocks in the fracturing process in rocks, Bull.
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We would like to thank the staff of Quake Red Alert, di-
Global Pattern
Prozorov, A.G., Schreider, S.Yu., 1990. Real time test of the long- range aftershock algorithm as
Western Brazil, 114 Off Coast Of Peru, 115 Near Coast a tool for mid-term earthquake prediction in southern California. Pure Appl. Geophys. 133,329
347. rectly responsible for the elaboration and implementation
Of Peru, 116 Central Peru, and 117 Southern Peru]. Romanowicz, B., 1993. Spatiotemporal patterns in the energy-release of great earthquakes.
of this article. We would also like to thank the teachers
We consider the earthquake migration patterns, pairs of Science 260, 19231926.
Migration 3 - Vanuatu to Japan [Flinn and Engdahl re- Shaw, B.E., Carlson, J.M., Langer, J.S., 1997. Patterns of seismic activity preceding large earth- Ana Cecilia Dos Santos and Alexandre J. Schumacher for
events with similar magnitudes and time variation, con- gions - Vanuatu, 185 Vanuatu Islands Region and 186 quakes. J. Geophys. Res. 97, 479488.
sidering only the main events without using the presence
Shebalin P., 2006. Increased correlation range of seismicity before large events manifested by their assistance provided. We realize that the non-integra-
Vanuatu Islands, Japan, 226 Near West Coast Of Hons- earthquake chains. Tectonophysics, 424, 335 349, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.040.
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of aftershocks. After selecting the patterns, we established hu, 227 Eastern Honshu, 228 Near East Coast Of Hons- dahl Regionalisation Scheme: the 1995 revision, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, v.
more difficult, a situation that can be easily resolved by
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