Available online at www.sciencedirect.

com

ScienceDirect
Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 957 963

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON WATER RESOURCES, COASTAL AND OCEAN

ENGINEERING (ICWRCOE 2015)

Regression Analysis of Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall and

Stream Flow for Flood Forecasting in Vellar River Basin
P.Supriyaa*, M.Krishnavenia, M.Subbulakshmia
a
Centre for Water Resources, Anna University, Chennai-600025, India

Abstract

Flood is a natural demolishing phenomenon, forecast of which is of high importance, to reduce its impact. On the other
hand, it also serves as a major source of water when conserved through proper means. For this purpose, estimation of flood is of
at utmost importance. The present study employed regression analysis between weighted maximum rainfall and maximum stream
flow for the flood events of respective catchments of Vellar river basin. Regression equation was framed between Annual
Maximum Daily Rainfall, Stream Flow and area for each catchment. Based on the equation, flood prioritization rank was given
to each of the catchment. Thereby, Lower Vellar is prioritized as first rank and Upper Vellar is prioritized as last rank
respectively. This study reveals that the Lower Vellar is the most vulnerable catchment and which needs flood control measures.
2015
2015 The
TheAuthors.
Authors.Published
Publishedbyby
Elsevier B.V.
Elsevier This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
B.V.
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of organizing committee of ICWRCOE 2015.
Peer-review under responsibility of organizing committee of ICWRCOE 2015
Keywords: Flood Forecasting; Regression; Prioritization; Vulnerable

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: psupriya86@gmail.com

2214-241X 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of organizing committee of ICWRCOE 2015
doi:10.1016/j.aqpro.2015.02.120
958 P. Supriya et al. / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 957 963

1. Introduction

The Vellar River basin was located between Ponnaiyar and Cauvery basins. The river originates in the Chitteri
hills of the Eastern Ghats in the Salem district of Tamil Nadu. The river flows for a total length of 210 km in the
Salem and Cuddalore districts and out falls in to the Bay of Bengal near Parangipettai. Every year, Vellar river basin
is facing serious seasonal flood problems during the months of November and December. In 2009, heavy flood was
occurred in both Vellar and Manimuktha river due to unforeseen precipitation and discharged 207000 Cusecs near
the confluence point at Kudalayathur village. The flood water enters into the adjacent cultivable lands and causes
serious threat to the livelihood of the local village people (Needhidasan. S. et al. 2013). Regression analysis
performs an exploration of relationships between one dependent and one or more independent variables under
consideration. Regression methods are widely used for many hydrological applications. Tangborn and Ramussen
(1976) derived a regression equation based upon the relationship between winter precipitation and annual runoff.
The regression coefficients were estimated with the help of mass balance equations. The accuracy of the model
framed using the full record of precipitation and annual runoff by the standard error of estimate.
MA Diaz-Granados and Rafael L. Bras (1982) investigated the computer based regression techniques such as
ordinary least squares (OLS) and iterative Generalised Least Squares (GLS) to perform parameter estimation and
residual analysis for seasonal stream flow. The residual statistics are calculated using regression equations. The
results revealed that the iterative GLS performs better than the OLS in forecasting based upon the value of mean
square of error. Huynh Ngoc Phien et al. (1990) compared five regression methods such as ordinary least squares,
ridge, principle components, stepwise and least absolute value regression. The results revealed that the ordinary least
squares, ridge, principle components regression methods are efficient in forecasting compared to the stepwise and
least absolute value regression methods. Lynne Tolland (1998) discusses about the available empirical methods for
the computation of peak flows in forest hydrology utilizing urban hydrology techniques. The rational methods and
empirical methods are to be improvised to determine design floods for forests.
Waltemeyer (2002) analyzed the magnitude and frequency of the 4-day annual low flow and regression
equations for estimating the 4-day, 3-year low-flow frequency at ungauged sites on unregulated streams in New
Mexico. Two regression equations were developed for estimating the 4-day, 3-year (4Q3) low-flow frequency at
ungaged sites on unregulated streams in New Mexico. The first, a statewide equation for estimating the 4Q3 low-
flow frequency from drainage area and average basin mean winter precipitation, was developed from the data for 50
stream flow-gaging stations that had non-zero 4Q3 low-flow frequency. The 4Q3 low-flow frequency for the 50
gaging stations ranged from 0.08 to 18.7 cubic feet per second. For this statewide equation, the average standard
error of estimate was 126 percent and the coefficient of determination was 0.48. The second, an equation for
estimating the 4Q3 low-flow frequency in mountainous regions from drainage area, average basin mean winter
precipitation, and average basin slope, was developed from the data for 40 gaging stations located above 7,500 feet
in elevation. For this regression equation, the average standard error of estimate was 94 percent and the coefficient
of determination was 0.66. Bhatt. V. K (2008) developed regression equation of mean annual peak discharge for 5 &
10 return periods with channel cross-section area as independent variable provides a greater correlation coefficient
and adequate flood estimates.
Roland and Stuckey (2008) developed regression equations for estimating flood flows at selected recurrence
intervals for ungaged streams in Pennsylvania. These equations were developed utilizing peak-flow data from 322
stream flow-gaging stations within Pennsylvania and surrounding states. All stations used in the development of the
equations had 10 or more years of record and included active and discontinued continuous-record as well as crest-
stage partial-record stations. The state was divided into four regions, and regional regression equations were
developed to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flood flows. The equations were
developed by means of a regression analysis that utilized basin characteristics and flow data associated with the
stations. Significant explanatory variables at the 95-percent confidence level for one or more regression equations
included the following basin characteristics: drainage area; mean basin elevation; and the percentages of carbonate
bedrock, urban area, and storage within a basin. The regression equations can be used to predict the magnitude of
flood flows for specified recurrence intervals for most streams in the state; however, they are not valid for streams
with drainage areas generally greater than 2000 square miles or with substantial regulation, diversion, or mining
activity within the basin.
 P. Supriya et al. / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 957 963 959

K. Engeland (2009) estimated low flow index in ungauged catchments using regional regression models and
(HBV) regional hydrological model. The regression models provided the better estimates of lowest discharge values
compared to HBV method. Saeid Eslamian (2010) attempted to estimate the low flow index using Principle
Component Regression (PCR) based upon physiographic and hydrologic variables. The yearly minimum discharge
data of respective gauging stations are ranked assessed upon its fitness distribution. M. Taylor (2011) made a
comparison between Quantile Regression Technique (QRT) and Parameter Regression Technique (PRT) of
regression based Regional Flood Frequency Analysis techniques. In QRT, the individual flood quantiles are
regressed against catchment characteristics. In PRT, the parameters of a probability distribution are regressed
against catchment characteristics. An ordinary least squares regression method is used to develop prediction
equations. The reasonable predictions are achieved using the equations produced by both the methods are easily
applied between catchment area and rainfall intensity. Jianzhu Li et al. (2013) performed multi linear regression
analysis with flood volume and flood peak as dependent variables and changes in rainfall depth, intensity, land use
area, watershed area as independent variables. The quantified effect on flood peak and flood volume was
accomplished using four regression equations.

Nomenclature

AMDR Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall

AMDSF Annual Maximum Daily Stream Flow
ANFIS Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System
ANN Artificial Neural Network
GLS Generalised Least Squares
HBV Regional Hydrological Model
MLR Multiple Regression Model
MNLR Multiple Non-Linear Regression Model
OLS Ordinary Least Squares
PCR Principle Component Regression
PRT Parameter Regression Technique
PWD Public Works Department
QRT Quantile Regression Technique
WRD Water Resources Department
X1 Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall in mm
X2 Catchment Area in km2
Y Annual Maximum Daily Stream flow in Cusecs

2. Purpose and Scope

This paper presents regression equations that describe the relation between weighted Annual Maximum
Daily Rainfall, catchment area and Annual Maximum Daily Stream Flow. Flood flow regression equations are
developed using the discharge data of Tholuthur, Pelandurai, Memathur and Sethiyathope. The weighted Annual
Maximum Daily Rainfall (AMDR), Annual Maximum Daily Stream Flow (AMDSF) and Catchment area are
utilized in framing regression equation for flood forecasting. The Vellar basin experienced severe flooding in the
year 2005 and inundated most of the areas of Cuddalore district.

3. Study Area and Data Sets

The Vellar river basin is located in the northern part of Tamil Nadu State in South India, between the
latitudes 11 13'N - 12 00' N and longitude 78 13'E - 79 47' E as shown in Figure 1. The total area of the basin is
7520.87 km2. The total length of the river is about 150km. Vellar basin lies entirely within the state of Tamilnadu
and covers a portion of Dharmapuri, Salem, Namakkal, Perambalur, Trichy, Villupuram and Cuddalore districts.
960 P. Supriya et al. / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 957 963

This basin is in between Ponnaiar, Paravanar and Cauvery river basins. The discharge data from Tholuthur,
Pelandurai, Memathur and Sethiyathope stream gauge stations were obtained from Public Works Department
(PWD) and Water Resources Department (WRD). The 32 years of daily rainfall data of 26 influencing rain gauge
stations present in the sub basins and as well as nearby stations were acquired from PWD and WRD.

Fig. 1. Index Map of Vellar Basin

4. Methods

4.1. Regression Analysis

In regression analysis one variable is taken as dependent variable and the other as independent variable thus
making it possible to study the cause and effect relationship. A regression model that involves more than one
independent variable is called Multiple Regression Model (MLR). Multiple regression analysis was used to establish
the statistical relations between one dependent variable Y and one or more independent variables X 1, X2Xp is
of the form (Jeyarami Reddy, 2013). This is the multiple regression equation. The term linear is used because
equation (1) is a linear function of the unknown parameters .
(1)
In non-linear regression analysis, the observational data is modeled by a function which is a non-linear
combination of the model parameters and depends upon one or more independent variables (Bilgili M. 2010). The
Multiple Non-Linear Regression model (MNLR) was a simple and efficient method in producing accurate maximum
daily stream flow predictions compared to ANNs, ANFIS and MLR (Rezaeianzadeh. M et al. 2013). The multiple
non-linear regression equation generally is of the form (Jeyarami Reddy, 2013),

(2)Where the b0,.,bp are the parameters of non-linear relation. The multiple non-linear regression
problems can be brought to a linear form by a simple logarithmic transformation by taking logarithm on both the
sides of the equation (2) (Jeyarami Reddy, 2013),

 (3)

and so the regression of ln y on ln (x1), ln(x2),ln(xp) is utilized for estimating b0,b1,b2, .,bp.
 P. Supriya et al. / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 957 963 961

4.2. DataFit 9 Software

DataFit 9 is a powerful software tool which simplifies the analysis of regression, statistical tasks and data
plotting. Intuitive graphical interface is easily understandable and which is helpful in performing accurate regression
analysis quicker rather than undergoing programming type approach. The variables can be typed directly or it can be
imported from other files. It can solve multivariate linear and non-linear regression models up to 20 independent
variables. DataFit 9 includes Forward Selection, Backward Elimination, Stepwise Selection and Manual variable
selection modes to select the independent variable. The regression models can be selected from the predefined
regression models based on its detailed results and R2 ranking as shown in Table 2. The DataFit 9 software is
selected because it can be used to compare and analyze the list of 242 non-linear regression models and then the best
fit model is automatically ranked first. Compared to other statistical softwares, DataFit 9 software is less time
consuming, user friendly and provides accurate results.

4.3. Generation of Thiessen Polygons

The Thiessen polygon is a graphical technique which calculates station weights depends upon their relative
areas of each measurement station in the Thiessen polygon network. Each area of the polygon was influenced by the
rain gauge station present inside. The effective uniform depth of precipitation can be achieved by assigning weights
to the rain gauge stations. Thiessen polygons were created for the influencing rain gauge stations by using Arc Map
software is clearly shown in Figure 2.

Table 1. Thiessen Weightage for Rain Gauge Stations

Catchment Catchment Area in km2 Rain Gauge Station Weightage
Upper Vellar and Swethanadhi Attur 0.503
2828.01 Rasipuram 0.172
Tholudur 0.246
Thuraiyur 0.078
Attur 0.303
Gomuki and Manimuktha 1940.68 Kattumylore 0.224
Manimuktha Reservoir 0.034
Memathur 0.147
Tholudur 0.293
Chettikulam 0.229
999.6 Keelacheruvai 0.258
Anaivari Odai and Chinnar Pelandurai 0.136
Tholudur 0.349
Thuraiyur 0.027
Pelandurai 0.225
Lower Vellar Tholudur 0.033
Keelacheruvai 0.110
1752.69 Kattumylore 0.057
Memathur 0.242
Sethiyathope Anicut 0.148
Kothavacheri 0.024
Annamalai University 0.017
Ulundurpettai 0.144
962 P. Supriya et al. / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 957 963

Fig. 2. Thiessen Polygon Map

5. Results and Discussions

The Thiessen weightage was computed to the rain gauge stations of each catchment based upon their
geographical location using Arc Map software is clearly mentioned in the Table 1. The effective rainfall depth for
every catchment was obtained by assigning weights to the influencing rain gauge stations. The stream flow data
measured at every confluence point of the catchments are utilized for the generation of regression equations. The
non-linear regression equations are framed by considering catchment area, weighted rainfall as independent
variables and stream flow as dependent variable. The relationship between weighted Annual Maximum Daily
Rainfall, Catchment area and Annual Maximum Daily Stream flow of that corresponding year were developed using
Datafit 9 software and are shown as equations in Table 2. The performance of the relationships of weighted Annual
Maximum Daily Rainfall, Catchment area and Annual Maximum Daily Stream flow was tested on the basis of R 2.
The R2 value was closer to one for all the four catchments which signifies that there exists strong relationship
between variables. The Datafit 9 software generates best fit non- linear regression equations and ranks it based on
R2.

Table 2. Regression Equations for Sub Basins

Catchment Equation ID Parameters Regression equation R2
a 5.232
Lower Vellar
b 1.219  0.90

c 1.000
a 1.998
Gomuki & Manimuktha  b 1.521  0.95
c 1.000
a 0.0654
Chinnar &   0.97
b 2.827
Anaivari odai
c 1.000
a 0.168
Upper Vellar &
 b 2.587  0.90
Swethanadhi
c 0.999

5.1. Flood Prioritization

The accuracy of the results was measured by the coefficient of determination R2, which is a commonly
adopted measure in the regression analysis of flood. Based upon the coefficient of respective best fit regression
equation of each of the catchments was utilized for flood prioritization. The analysis of regression equations
revealed that lower Vellar has high flood risk and Upper Vellar has low flood risk compared to other catchments.
 P. Supriya et al. / Aquatic Procedia 4 (2015) 957 963 963

The prioritization of flood risk catchments are ranked as shown in Table 3.

Table 3. Ranking Sub Basins Based on Flood Prioritization
Rank Catchment
1 Lower Vellar
2 Gomuki & Manimuktha
3 Chinnar & Anaivari odai
4 Upper Vellar & Swethanadhi

The prioritization of identifying flood risk catchment is essential to safeguard lives of local people,
cultivable lands, economic losses, hydraulic structures, roads of Vellar river basin. This analysis reveals that the
Lower Vellar is the most vulnerable catchment and which needs flood control measures.

6. Conclusions

The regression method is an effective statistical method of estimating flood discharge compared to other
methods based upon catchment characteristics. This study reveals that the regression equations provide flood
magnitude which is adequate for the planning and design of various hydraulic structures. Based on the equation,
flood prioritization rank was assigned to the four catchments. Lower Vellar catchment has assigned first rank and
Upper Vellar & Swethanadhi catchment has assigned last rank respectively. Flood control measures are needed in
Lower Vellar which is most vulnerable catchment compared to other catchments. Regression equation is framed
between annual maximum daily rainfall, discharge and area for each catchment. The accuracy of flood estimates are
further improved by considering more independent variables such as catchment slope, length of main stream etc. in
framing regression equations.

References

Bhatt, V. K., Tiwari, A. K., 2008. Estimation of peak streamflows through channel geometry. Hydrolological Sciences Journal 53(2), 401408.
Bilgili, M., 2010. Prediction of soil temperature using regression and artificial neural network models. Meteorological Atmospheric Physics
110, 5970.
Engeland, K., Hisdal, H., 2009. A Comparison of Low Flow Estimates in Ungauged Catchments Using Regional Regression and the
HBV-Model., Water Resources Management 23(12), 2567-2586.
Huynh Ngoc Phien., Bui Khanh Huong., Phan Dinh Loi., 1990. Daily flow forecasting with regression analysis. Water SA 16(3), 179-184.
Jeya Rami Reddy, P., 2013. Stochastic Hydrology. Laxmi Publications Private Limited., Ajit Printing Press, New Delhi, pp. 122-130.
Jianzhu Li., Ping Feng., Zhaozhen Wei., 2013. Incorporating the data of different watersheds to estimate the effects of land use change on flood
peak and volume using multi-linear regression. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18(8), 1183-1196.
Lynne Tolland., Jaime G. Cathcart and S.O., Denis Russell., 1998. Estimating the Q100 in British Columbia: A practical problem in forest
Hydrology. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 34(4), 787-794.
Mario A. Diaz-Granados., Rafael L. Bras., 1982. Identification and Estimation of a Monthly Multivariate Stochastic Stream flow model for the
Nile River Basin, Technology Adaptation Program. Report No. 283, July 1982.
Needhidasan, S., Chenchu Babu, K., Natrayan, M., Naveen, D. C., Vinothkumar, S., 2013. Preserving the Environment due to the Flash Floods in
Vellar River at TV Puthur, Virudhachalam taluk, Tamil Nadu: A Case Study. International Journal of Structural and Civil Engineering
Research 2(3), 104-114.
Rezaeianzadeh, M., Tabari, H., Arabi Yazdi, A., Isik, A., Kalin, L., 2013. Flood flow forecasting using ANN, ANFIS and regression models.
Neural Comput & Applic. springer-verlag London 2013, published online. DOI 10.1007/s00521-013-1443-6.
Roland, M. A., Stuckey, M. H., 2008. Regression Equations for Estimating Flood Flows at Selected Recurrence Intervals for Ungaged Streams in
Pennsylvania. Scientific Investigation Report 2008-5102, US Department of the Interior, U. S. Geological Survey.
Saeid Eslamian., Mehdi Ghasemizadeh., Monireh Biabanaki., Mansoor Talebizadeh., 2010. A Principal Component Regression Method for
Estimating Low Flow Index. Water Resources Management 24(11), 2553-2566
Tabari, H., Arabi Yazdi, A., Isik, A., Kalin, L., 2013. Flood flow forecasting using ANN, ANFIS and regression models. Neural Comput &
Applic. springer-verlag London 2013, published online.
Taylor, M., Haddad, K., Zaman, M., Rahman, A., 2011. Regional flood modelling in Western Australia: Application of regression based methods
using ordinary least squares. 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Perth, Australia, 3803-3810.
http://mssanz.org.au/modsim2011
Waltemeyer, S. D., 2002. Analysis of the magnitude and frequency of the 4-day annual low flow and regression equations for estimating the 4-
day, 3-year low-flow frequency at ungaged sites on unregulated streams in New Mexico, US Department of the Interior, US Geological
Survey.
Wendell V. Tangborn., Lowell A. Ramussen., 1976. Hydrology of the North Cascades Region, Washington - A Proposed Hydro meteorological
Stream flow Prediction Method. Water Resources research 12(2), 203-216.