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Double-Counting
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By using the addition rule in a situation that is not mutually exclusive, you are double
counting
counting. One way of realizing that you are doublecounting is to use the classic theory of
probability: List all the different outcomes when ipping a coin twice and assess the ratio of
favorable outcomes to total outcomes (see Table 1).
There are four total outcomes. Three of the outcomes have at least one head; therefore, the
probability of throwing at least one head in two ips is , or 0.75, not 1. But if you had used
the addition rule, you would have added the two heads from the rst ip to the two heads from
the second ip and gotten four heads in four ips, . But the two heads in that rst pair
constitute only one outcome; so, by counting both heads for that outcome, you are double
counting because this is the jointoccurrence outcome that is not mutually exclusive.

To use the addition rule in a nonmutuallyexclusive situation, you must subtract any events
that doublecount. In this case:

The notation, therefore, for at least one favorable occurrence in two events is

P( A B) = P( A) + P( B) P( A B)
which is read: The probability of at least one of the events A or B equals the probability of A
plus the probability of B minus the probability of their joint occurrence. (Note that if they are
mutually exclusive, then P( A B)the joint occurrenceequals 0, and you simply add the two
probabilities.)

Example 1

What is the probability of drawing either a spade or an ace from a deck of cards?
The probability of drawing a spade is ; the probability of drawing an ace is . But the

probability of their joint occurrence (an ace of spades) is . Thus,

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