ESTUDIANTE

SERIE HISTRICA

AO TPDS AUTOS (%) BUSES(%)

2001 4,990 55% 8%

2002 4,726 58% 9%
2003 3,981 56% 10%
2004 3,483 56% 10%
2005 4,136 50% 10%
2006 4,887 60% 8%
2007 5,632 66% 8%
2008 5,257 61% 6%
2009 5,713 58% 9%
2010 5,589 51% 15%
2011 5,963 62% 9%
2012 7,038 54% 7%
2013 8,514 62% 9%
2014 7,995 53% 7%
2015 4,967 57% 8%
SERIE HISTRICA Y COMPOSICIN DEL TRNSITO PROMEDIO DIARIO SEMANAL TPDS
DISTRIBUCION PORCENTUAL DE CAMIONES(%)
CAMIONES(%) TOTAL(%)
C - 2P C - 2G C-3-4 C-5 >C - 5
37% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
33% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
34% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
34% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
40% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
32% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
26% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
33% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
33% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
34% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
29% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
39% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
29% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
40% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%
35% 100% 29.06% 35.50% 8.16% 9.51% 17.77%

MODELO LINEAL PROYECCION DEL TR

1,800.00

1,600.00
TRANSITO EQUIVALENTE DIARIA SEMANAL

1,400.00

1,200.00 f(x) = 42.470922849x - 84266.9148625786

R = 0.4474363022
1,000.00

800.00

600.00

400.00

200.00

-
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20
AOS
ANAL TPDS
FACTOR DE EQUIVALENCIA (Fe) Factor
direccional
C - 2P C - 2G C-3-4 C-5 >C - 5 BUS (FD)
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55
2.15 3.44 3.72 4.88 5.23 1 0.55

PARA LA PROYECCION DE
DIARIO SE TOMA EL MODE
ECCION DEL TRANSITO ESTUDIOS ESTE ES EL MO
REALIDAD EN EL TRANSIT

Y=

R2=
R=

TRANSITO E

AO TRANSITO MODELO LINEAL

2001 717
2002 760
2003 802
2004 845
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2005 887
AOS 2006 930
2007 972
2008 1015
2009 1057
2010 1100
2011 1142
2012 1185
2013 1227
2014 1270
2015 1312

NIVEL DE CONFIANZA

TRANSITO EQUIV
TRANSITO EQUIVALENTE DIARIO
AO PROYECTADO
2018 1439
2019 1482
2020 1524
2021 1567
2022 1609
2023 1652
2024 1694
2025 1737
2026 1779
2027 1822
2028 1864
2029 1907

NUMERO DE EJES EQUIVALENTES

DE 8.2 TON

Ni
Fca
Fd
N
Ta(3%)
Tg(2%)
Ndis
 Factor de carril
Nao
(FCa)

0.90 991.52
0.90 850.13
0.90 741.96
0.90 649.14
0.90 896.45
0.90 847.38
0.90 805.52
0.90 923.12
0.90 1,027.68
0.90 1,081.57
0.90 951.93
0.90 1,459.65
0.90 1,359.16
0.90 1,698.60
0.90 936.67

PARA LA PROYECCION DEL TRANSITO EQUIVALENTE

DIARIO SE TOMA EL MODELO LINEAL, YA QUE SEGUN
ESTUDIOS ESTE ES EL MODELO MAS CERCANO A LA
REALIDAD EN EL TRANSITO EN COLOMBIA.

X
42.471 AO - 84267

0.4474
0.6688796603

TRANSITO EQUIVALENTE DIARIO POR EL MODELO LINEAL

ANSITO MODELO LINEAL TRANSITO DIARIO OBSERVADO DIF DIF^2

717 992 274 75,103
760 850 90 8,134
802 742 - 60 3,655
845 649 - 196 38,315
887 896 9 83
930 847 - 82 6,798
972 806 - 167 27,814
1015 923 - 92 8,399
1057 1,028 - 30 874
1100 1,082 - 18 329
1142 952 - 190 36,197
1185 1,460 275 75,625
 1227 1,359 132 17,435
1270 1,699 429 184,042
1312 937 - 375 140,921
623,724

ERROR ESTANDAR 219.04

AO PROMEDIO 2008

95% Zr 1.645

TRANSITO EQUIVALENTE DIARIO NORMAL CON NIVEL DE CONFIANZA

SITO EQUIVALENTE DIARIO ERROR DE ERROR LIMITE SUPERIOR DE TRANSITO
Zr
PROYECTADO PRONOSTICO PROYECTADO EQUIVALENTE DIARIO
1439 231.3 1.645 380.6 1820
1482 244.0 1.645 401.3 1883
1524 256.6 1.645 422.1 1947
1567 269.3 1.645 443.1 2010
1609 282.1 1.645 464.0 2073
1652 294.8 1.645 485.0 2137
1694 307.6 1.645 506.1 2200
1737 320.5 1.645 527.2 2264
1779 333.3 1.645 548.3 2328
1822 346.2 1.645 569.4 2391
1864 359.0 1.645 590.6 2455
1907 371.9 1.645 611.8 2518
26026

ERO DE EJES EQUIVALENTES

DE 8.2 TON

26026
0.90
0.55
4,702,314
141,069
94,046
4,937,429
(AO-AO MEDIO)^2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
 25
36
49
280

MITE SUPERIOR DE TRANSITO

EQUIVALENTE DIARIO
1820
1883
1947
2010
2073
2137
2200
2264
2328
2391
2455
2518
26026