Effects

of climate change on ocean dead zones

Isabelle Hurley, Undergraduate Student, Dalhousie University

Abstract
Over this century ocean dead zones are expected to dramatically increase
in number. This paper reviews articles describing how climate change
will impact ocean dead zones. These studies show that there are many
aspects of climate change that affect dead zones. Primarily, an increase in
temperature on dead zones, examined in depth in this review, will to lead
to the expansion of dead zones through mechanisms such as
stratification. Other aspects of climate change, such as changes in
patterns of precipitation and changes in ocean circulation, will also affect
ocean dead zones, though currently not enough research exists to say
definitively how. Overall, the studies reviewed suggest that climate
change will cause dead zones to spread globally.

1. Introduction

This review paper discusses the effects of climate change on the phenomena of
ocean dead zones. Ocean dead zones are areas of water that are hypoxic, meaning
they have very low levels of oxygen, and thus can sustain very little marine life. Dead
zones are found both in lakes and in costal ocean waters; however, this paper will
only discuss dead zones that occur in oceans. The cause of dead zones is generally
accepted to be from excess nutrients in the runoff of industrial agriculture.
However, some researchers are suggesting that climate change will soon be a factor
of great importance for the creation of dead zones. Statements like this rely heavily
on predicting how Earths temperature will change in the far off future, which has
led to some skepticism. Carstensen et al. (2014) argue that too little information is
known to make large assumptions on the future effects of climate change on dead
zones. Additionally, Diaz and Rosenburg (2008) note that climate change is
associated with an increase in tropical storms, that could in fact disrupt dead zones.

Ocean dead zones destroy marine ecosystems, forcing organisms to either flee or
perish. As the area occupied by dead zones expands, more and more ecosystems will
be lost (Schrope 2006). If the spread of ocean dead zones continues, as it has for
decades, there will be massive financial consequences for fisherman, who will have
to seek work elsewhere, and for consumers, as seafood prices rise. If scientists do
not take into consideration all factors that will contribute to their spreading or
intensification, namely the effects of climate change, then they may not be
adequately informed to counsel politicians attempting to combat the spread of dead
zones on what decisions to make and this could result in the underestimation of
what an appropriate response is. This paper synthesizes peer-reviewed articles
discussing the potential effects of climate change on ocean dead zones, while
acknowledging that there is always some room for debate when considering

I. Hurley \ Oceans First, Issue 2, 2015, pgs. 17-22. 17

Disclaimer: This is exemplary work from a first-year science writing class. The views expressed herein are not necessarily endorsed by Dalhousie University.


predictions. Clarifying this debate and synthesizing existing knowledge in this field
will benefit future studies and inform policy in new ways.

2. Formation and observation of dead zones

Most dead zones are caused by the presence of large amounts of nitrogen and
phosphorus in the water, which triggers a process called eutrophication (Schrope
2006). The nutrients enable an unnaturally large algae bloom to occur. When the
algae dies, it sinks to the sea floor where it decomposes in a process that uses up a
significant amount of oxygen, leaving very little for organisms in that region. Hypoxic
is a term used to describe this lack of oxygen; specifically, a hypoxic area has less
than 2 millilitres of dissolved oxygen per litre. Ocean dead zones are hypoxic
regions.

In 2003, a United Nations report found that the number of ocean dead zones had
doubled every decade since 1960 (Dybas 2005). To determine whether a dead zone
is present, many research papers measure parts per million of oxygen. Sediment
core analysis and water column analysis are two primary research methods.
Mathematical models are also used, in order to predict future spreading trends of
dead zones, temperature increase and other factors related to climate change. The
methods used in the papers reviewed here vary. Altieri and Gedan (2015), as well as
Diaz and Rosenburg (2008), performed no direct research and instead assembled
known information on the subject into coherent review papers. Howarth et al.
(2000) performed various experiments on the Hudson River estuary to examine
eutrophication; such as calculating Gross Primary Production and the rate of fresh
water discharge into the Hudson. Carstensen et al. (2014) analyzed over one
hundred years of data on stratification and oxygenation of the Baltic Sea.

3. Climate change effects on dead zones associated with temperature increase

In 2008 a survey of the worlds oceans found that over 400 dead zones existed
globally. Cross-referencing this information with the United Nations study in 2003,
Altieri and Gedan (2015) determined that ocean dead zones are spreading
exponentially. Using the information laid out by the 2008 survey, a map was created
illustrating the location of known dead zones and categorizing the oceans based on
the expected sea surface temperature increase by the end of this century (Figure 1).
Figure 1 shows that 94% of all ocean dead zones were found in areas that were
expecting an increase of 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. It is predicted
that an increase in sea temperature will affect ocean dead zones by further
strengthening them and thus encouraging them to spread.

Altieri and Gedan (2015) suggest that in order to understand the effects of
temperature increase on ocean dead zones, one must first examine the most basic
relationship between water and oxygen. That is, that the warmer the water the less
oxygen can be dissolved in it. Altieri and Gedan (2015) and Diaz and Rosenburg
(2008) both conclude that as its temperature increases the ocean will be able to

I. Hurley \ Oceans First, Issue 2, 2015, pgs. 17-22. 18

Disclaimer: This is exemplary work from a first-year science writing class. The views expressed herein are not necessarily endorsed by Dalhousie University.


hold less and less oxygen. This is a serious problem, as it will increase the strength
of dead zones by further decreasing the already shockingly low amounts of
dissolved oxygen.

Figure 1: Map of current dead zones overlaid with predicted sea surface temperature
increase for the end of the century (Altieri and Gedan 2015).

Altieri and Gedan (2015) and Doney et al. (2011) both find that with an increase in
air temperature comes an increase in sea surface temperature. Warmer water is
more buoyant and thus it is less likely to mix with the lower layers of the ocean. This
layering of water based on density, a factor controlled primarily by temperature and
salinity, is called stratification. The surface water is the part of water that receives
oxygen but in the presence of stratification it is unable to mix and spread oxygen to
the bottom because that would require convection to occur. Convection does not
occur in stratified columns because the surface water is warmer and less dense and
thus does not sink. The more stratification there is, the stronger the dead zone
(Altieri and Gedan 2015; Doney et al. 2011). As the ocean bottom is often where the
worst of hypoxia occurs the predicted increase in ocean temperature will magnify
hypoxia in areas that already suffer from it.

Diaz and Rosenburg (2008) point out that though climate change, more specifically
temperature increase, will lead to ocean stratification, it will also lead to an increase
in tropical storms, like hurricanes, which mix the ocean as they move, thus
disrupting stratification. The Gulf of Mexico dead zone serves as a good example of
how ocean dead zones can be affected by hurricanes. In 2005, four distinct
hurricanes passed over this dead zone distorting the stratification. While the
stratification resumed as soon as the storms passed, the area of the dead zone was
still reduced. Diaz and Rosenberg (2008) go on to state that this possible positive
effect of climate change is dwarfed by the many other potential negative effects
climate change will have on ocean dead zones and their spreading. It should also be

I. Hurley \ Oceans First, Issue 2, 2015, pgs. 17-22. 19

Disclaimer: This is exemplary work from a first-year science writing class. The views expressed herein are not necessarily endorsed by Dalhousie University.


noted that debate still exists in the scientific community as to whether climate
change will lead to an increase in the number of hurricanes formed.

Carstensen et al. (2014) argue that the global increase in hypoxic regions is due
mainly to excess nutrient input into coastal regions and only partially due to climate
change. Their study included statistically modeling the oxygen and stratification
conditions in the Baltic Sea for the previous 115 years. Carstensen et al. (2014)
acknowledge that in the past two decades temperature increase has led to a
decrease in oxygen solubility, but states that there is not enough information
currently available to determine whether temperature increase, leading to
decreasing oxygenation, is comparable in importance to the increase in nutrients in
coastal areas for the formation and maintenance of dead zones. Though decreasing
oxygenation propelled through temperature increase may not be by itself as
influential a variable as nutrient input, it is important to remember that the
decrease in oxygen solubility is not the only consequence of an increase in
temperature. There are many more outcomes that stem from an increase in
temperature such as the expected increase in respiration or in the duration of dead
zones annually, which will be discussed later in this paper.

Altieri and Gedan (2015) also explain that coastal regions are more effected by an
increase in temperature because these areas tend to be shallower and thus as a
whole are more effected by the air temperature around them. This explains why
shallow areas show a greater rate of temperature increase in comparison to the
open ocean. Altieri and Gedan (2015) refer to Chesapeake Bays 0.03 degree Celsius
increase every year since 1960 as an example of this. As most dead zones are found
in coastal regions this observation is worth noting. Furthermore, with the expected
sea level rise, shallow coastal regions such as bays and estuaries will increase in
water volume and thus more water will be found in coastal areas that are extremely
susceptible to forming dead zones due to the fact that agricultural runoff is found in
its greatest concentration along the coast (Altieri and Gedan 2015).

Currently, dead zones are often seasonal events, peaking in the summer months, as
they require a certain temperature to form (Altieri and Gedan 2015). The high
temperature allows stratification to occur and, as described above, stratification
often leads to hypoxia. However, with the predicted increase in temperature in the
next century many dead zones could become year-round phenomena.

4. Climate change effects on dead zones not associated with temperature
increase

Climate change is not solely an increase in temperature. It involves numerous
factors; climate change will also entail changes in global patterns of precipitation
and ocean circulation. Both of these factors are predicted to influence dead zones.
Several studies have explored these factors and their potential effects on dead
zones.

I. Hurley \ Oceans First, Issue 2, 2015, pgs. 17-22. 20

Disclaimer: This is exemplary work from a first-year science writing class. The views expressed herein are not necessarily endorsed by Dalhousie University.


Howarth et al. (2000) and Altieri and Gedan (2015) both agree that precipitation is
arguably the most important factor controlling the formation of dead zones, due to
its relationship with agricultural runoff. Precipitation is necessary to bring the
nutrients to the streams and rivers that carry them to coastal waters where
eutrophication can occur and cause dead zones. Howarth et al. (2000) state that due
to this relationship there is no doubt that change in precipitation patterns will have
a great effect on ocean dead zones, but that as of yet there is not enough research
predicting how climate change will affect precipitation frequency. However, it is
suggested that with the increase in temperature we may see less precipitation in the
summer and more in the winter. Perhaps this will lead to a reversal of the current
dead zone season (Howarth et al. 2000).

Altieri and Gedan (2015) and Doney et al. (2011) both recognize change in ocean
circulation as another consequence of climate change. As with precipitation, not
enough data currently exists to be able to accurately predict how circulation will
change. However, it is likely that these changes will take one of two forms when
concerning dead zones. Either circulation will change so as to introduce oxygen rich
water to presently hypoxic areas or it will bring hypoxic water to areas that are
already hypoxic strengthening the dead zone. Thus, both studies conclude that dead
zones will be impacted by climate change through changes in ocean circulation.

All papers reviewed here agreed that ocean dead zones are spreading globally
(Altieri and Gedan 2015; Carstensen et al. 2014; Diaz and Rosenberg 2008; Doney et
al. 2011; Dybus 2005; Howarth et al. 2000; Schrope 2006). They also all accepted
excess nutrients, like nitrogen, as the primary cause of dead zones. Additionally,
most papers recognized that an increase in temperature just above the sea surface
can drastically change a regions susceptibility to becoming a dead zone. Thus, a
consensus exists stating that if climate change continues as it is predicted to, or it
surpasses the expectations of predicted temperature rise, then there will be an
increase in ocean dead zones globally.

While every paper reviewed here agreed that climate change has an effect on dead
zones, they all also acknowledged the limitations of their research as it is based
heavily on prediction (Altieri and Gedan 2015; Carstensen et al. 2014; Diaz and
Rosenberg 2008; Doney et al. 2011; Dybus 2005; Howarth et al. 2000; Schrope
2006). However, it is impossible to ignore the vast amount of evidence that shows
that dead zones will be altered in the next century. Certain factors, such as ocean
circulation, are unclear as to whether they will end up decreasing or increasing the
number and severity of ocean dead zones, but unfortunately that is an unavoidable
limitation of prediction. Either way it is clear that climate change will have great
impact on hypoxic areas.

5. Conclusion

Climate change is and will continue to have an effect on ocean dead zones. This
conclusion was drawn through the review and synthesis of current knowledge and

I. Hurley \ Oceans First, Issue 2, 2015, pgs. 17-22. 21

Disclaimer: This is exemplary work from a first-year science writing class. The views expressed herein are not necessarily endorsed by Dalhousie University.


debate in the literature surrounding the influence of climate change on ocean dead
zones. Factors that will directly lead to this impact include a global increase in
temperature, as well as changes in precipitation and ocean circulation. The majority
of the research reviewed suggested that climate change will increase the severity
and number of dead zones within this century. A dissenting view that is skeptical of
the impact of climate change on dead zones continues to be held by a select few,
suggesting that future research is important.

To further explore the potential effects of climate change on ocean dead zones more
research must be done on the predicted change in precipitation and ocean
circulation, so as to be able to model the expected change by the end of this century.
This could be accomplished with methods such as reconstructing past ocean
circulation and precipitation patterns to see how they evolved with an increase in
temperature. Another future study could focus on comparing the relative effects of
nutrient input versus temperature increase on ocean dead zones. This might answer
questions raised by Carstensen et al. (2014). As well, any organizations attempting
to come up with solutions to the problem of ocean dead zones must take into
consideration the effects of climate change on ocean dead zones. Whether that be to
ensure that they do not over compensate if they have ocean circulation working in
their favor or to make sure that they do not undercompensate by not taking the
global increase in temperature under consideration when forming a plan of action.

References
Altieri A, Gedan K. 2015. Climate Change and Dead Zones. Glob Change Bio. 21:
13951406.

Carstensen J, Andersen J, Gustafsson B, Conley D. 2014. Deoxygenation of the Baltic
Sea during the last century. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 111: 56285633.

Diaz R, Rosenberg R. 2008. Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine
Ecosystems. Science. 321(5891): 926-929.

Doney S, Ruckelshaus M, Duffy E, Barry J, Chan F, English C, Galindo H, Grebmeier J,
Hollowed A, Knowlton N et al. 2011. Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems.
Annu Rev Mar Sci. 4: 11-37.

Dybas, C. 2005. Dead Zones Spreading in World Oceans. Bioscience. 55(7): 552-557.

Howarth R, Swaney D, Butler T, Marino R. 2000. Rapid Communication: Climatic
Control on Eutrophication of the Hudson River Estuary. Ecosystems. 3(2): 210-215.

Schrope, M. 2006. The Dead Zones. New Sci. 192(2581): 38-42

I. Hurley \ Oceans First, Issue 2, 2015, pgs. 17-22. 22

Disclaimer: This is exemplary work from a first-year science writing class. The views expressed herein are not necessarily endorsed by Dalhousie University.