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1. Exchange Rates
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Exchange Rates: The Nominal Rate Exchange Rates: The Nominal Rate
Nominal exchange rates are determined in the Nominal exchanges rates are quoted two ways:
foreign exchange market.
1. The amount of foreign currency per unit of
domestic currency, a direct quote.
This is an over-the-counter market of several
For example, the number of Japanese yen per dollar.
hundred dealers (mostly banks) actively buying
and selling bank deposits denominated in foreign 2. The amount of domestic currency per unit of
currencies. foreign currency, an indirect quote.
For example, the number of dollars per U.K. pound.
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Exchange Rates: The Nominal Rate Exchange Rates: The Nominal Rate
Changes in the nominal foreign exchange rate: Two types of nominal foreign exchanges rates:
1. When a currency rises in value so that it is worth 1. The spot exchange rate is the exchange rate for
more units of another currency, an appreciation spot transactions, which are immediate exchanges
occurs.
of bank deposits.
Alternatively, the currency is said to have increased or
strengthened.
2. The forward exchange rate is the exchange rate
2. When a currency falls in value so that it is worth for forward transactions, which are exchanges of
less units of another currency, a depreciation bank deposits at some specified future date.
occurs.
Alternatively, the currency is said to have decreased or
weakened.
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Exchange Rates: The Real Rate Exchange Rates: The Real Rate
The real exchange rate, , is the price of goods The real exchange rate is given by:
in one country relative to the price of similar
goods in another country. = E * ( P / Pf )
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Exchange Rates: The Real Rate Exchange Rates: The Real Rate
Changes in the real foreign exchange rate: The real exchange rate indicates if a countrys
goods are relatively cheap or expensive
1. When the price of goods in one country increases
relative to the price of similar goods in another compared to a foreign countrys goods.
country, a real appreciation occurs.
Domestic goods are becoming more expensive relative 1. When the real exchange rate is low (i.e., < 1),
to foreign goods. domestic goods are cheap relative to similar
foreign goods; it will be relatively easy to export.
2. When the price of goods in one country decreases
relative to the price of similar goods in another 2. When the real exchange rate is high (i.e., > 1),
country, a real depreciation occurs. domestic goods are expensive relative to similar
Domestic goods are becoming less expensive relative to
foreign goods. foreign goods; it will be relatively hard to export.
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Exchange Rates: The Real Rate Exchange Rates: Nominal and Real
Exchange $ Price In the short-run, if prices are sticky, then
$ Price Rate, E *E Yen Price
nominal and real exchange rates should move
$100 10,000
together.
$100 10,000
$100 10,000
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Exchange Rates: Nominal and Real Exchange Rates: Exports & Imports
When prices are sticky, changes in nominal
exchange rates affect the relative price of
domestic versus foreign goods.
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Exchange Rates: Exports & Imports Exchange Rates: Exports & Imports
US Price Exchange Rate Yen Price Yen Price Exchange Rate US Price
$100 100:$1 10,000 10,000 100:$1 $100
$100 110:$1 11,000 10,000 110:$1 $91
$100 120:$1 12,000 10,000 120:$1 $83
Dollar appreciation increases the Yen price of Dollar appreciation also decreases the dollar
U.S. exports. price of U.S. imports.
So the Japanese buy fewer U.S. goods and U.S. So Americans buy more Japanese goods and U.S.
exports decline. imports increase.
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Exchange Rates: Exports & Imports
Currency appreciation has the following effects:
This is called Purchasing Power Parity, PPP. 1. Two countries produce an identical good and
PPP says that the nominal exchange rate adjusts to make 2. Transportation costs and trade barriers are low,
the price of goods in different countries equal. then
This is an application of the law of one price. 3. The price of the good will be the same in both
countries.
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Exchange Rates in the Long-Run Exchange Rates in the Long-Run
The real exchange rate is given by: When:
P = Pf / E
= E * (P / Pf)
then similar goods have the same price in terms of
When purchasing power parity holds: the same currency.
P = Pf / E
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Exchange Rates in the Long-Run Exchange Rates in the Long-Run
When purchasing power parity holds, or when The Big Mac index:
the real exchange rate does not change, then:
If PPP held exactly, the real exchange rate would be
%E f 1 and all the prices in terms of dollars would be
identical.
Nominal exchange rate movements only reflect But the data show that this is not the case.
differences in relative inflation.
The data also indicate which currencies are:
This is called relative purchasing power parity. 1. Overvalued ( > 1) or
2. Undervalued ( < 1).
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Exchange Rates in the Short-Run
Nominal exchange rates are determined:
1. The demand for domestic currency-denominated Therefore, the supply curve for domestic currency-
assets, and/or denominated assets is vertical with respect to the
nominal exchange rate.
2. The supply of domestic currency-denominated
assets.
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Exchange Rates in the Short-Run Exchange Rates in the Short-Run
E (Yen:$) The demand for domestic currency-
denominated assets is determined by the
expected return on domestic assets relative to
foreign assets.
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Exchange Rates in the Short-Run Exchange Rates in the Short-Run
With a forward exchange rate of 104.76 this Suppose the future exchange rate was expected
transaction represents a risk-free arbitrage. to be more than the forward exchange rate, i.e.,
suppose Eet+1 > 104.76.
This is called covered interest parity.
If Eet+1 > 104.76, investors would want to:
Replace the forward exchange rate with the 1. Invest in the U.S.,
expected future exchange rate, Eet+1. 2. Which increases the demand for U.S. dollars,
3. Leading to an appreciation of the dollar, and
This is called uncovered interest parity. 4. A depreciation of the yen.
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Exchange Rates in the Short-Run Exchange Rates in the Short-Run
E (Yen:$) The foreign exchange market is in equilibrium
when the quantity of dollar denominated assets
demanded exactly equals the quantity of dollar
denominated assets supplied.
Q$ Assets
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Exchange Rates in the Short-Run Exchange Rates in the Short-Run
Assuming that the supply curve does not shift, The demand for dollar assets is derived from the
then all changes in the exchange rate are caused uncovered interest parity condition:
by changes in the demand for dollar
denominated assets. Et = 1 + iD * Eet+1
1 + iF
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Exchange Rates in the Short-Run Exchange Rates in the Short-Run
E (Yen:$) S$ 2. The foreign real interest rate, rF.
D$
Q$ Assets
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D$
Q$ Assets
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Exchange Rates in the Short-Run
E (Yen:$) S$
The End
E0
D$
Q$ Assets
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