Mtodo aritmtico o Post Censal

=+() r=((
_))/
Calcular Poblacin ( (
2017 _))
2037
r promedio
Ao Poblacin r
1940 548371 6566.14
1961 686260 8173.91
1972 776173 12676.11
1981 890258 15799.25
1993 1079849 13470.86
2007 1268441
r promedio 11337.25

Poblacin futura
Ao Poblacin
Ao base 2007 1268441
Ao fin 2017 1381813.54

P2017 1381813.54 habitantes

Ao Poblacin
Ao base 2007 1268441
Ao fin 2037 1608558.621

P2030 1608558.62 habitantes

 263077
388881 2030
529566
706580
916806
1152303

7023111
10420357
14121564 2025
17762231
22639443
28220764

828298
2031051
3472564 2020
4745877
6386308
8445211

395233
597925 2035
799977
982074
1270261
1617050
 548371 2037
686260
776173
890258
1079849
1268441
 Mtodo inters simple

=[+()] r=(/_
)/(() )

Calcular Poblacin
2017
2037
r promedio
Ao Poblacin r
1940 548371 0.0120
1961 686260 0.0119
1972 776173 0.0163
1981 890258 0.0177
1993 1079849 0.0125
2007 1268441
r promedio 0.0141

Poblacin futura
Ao Poblacin
Ao base 2007 1268441
Ao fin 2017 1447133.505

P2017 1447133.51 habitantes

Ao Poblacin
Ao base 2007 1268441
Ao fin 2037 1804518.516

P2030 1804518.52 habitantes

 Mtodo Geomtrico o de Inters
Mtodo Geomtrico Compuesto

=^(()) = (+) ^((

) )
Calcular Poblacin Calcular Poblacin
2017 2017
2037 2037
r promedio r promedio
Ao Poblacin r Ao Poblacin r
1940 548371 1.0107 1940 548371 0.0107
1961 686260 1.0113 1961 686260 0.0113
1972 776173 1.0154 1972 776173 0.0154
1981 890258 1.0162 1981 890258 0.0162
1993 1079849 1.0116 1993 1079849 0.0116
2007 1268441 2007 1268441
r promedio 1.0130 r promedio 0.0130

Poblacin futura Poblacin futura

Ao Poblacin Ao Poblacin
Ao base 2007 1268441 Ao base 2007 1268441
Ao fin 2017 1443699.786 Ao fin 2017 1443699.786

P2017 1443699.79 habitantes P2017 1443699.79 habitantes

Ao Poblacin Ao Poblacin
Ao base 2007 1268441 Ao base 2007 1268441
Ao fin 2037 1870208.961 Ao fin 2037 1870208.961

P2030 1870208.96 habitantes P2030 1870208.96 habitantes

r= (/ r=[(/_ )^((/
(_ )) )] -1
_ ) ^((
/
(_ )))
 Mtodo de la Parbola

=++^

Calcular Poblacin
2017
2037

Ao Poblacin t
1981 890258 0
1993 1079849 12
2007 1268441 26

890258 = A
1079849 = 890258 +B* 12 +C* 144
1268441 = 890258 +B* 26 +C* 676

189591 = B 12 C 144
-174546 = B -12 C -312
15045 = B 0 C -168
A = 890258
B = 16873.89286
C = -89.5535714

P = 890258 +t* 16873.9 +t2* -89.55

Poblacin futura
Ao t
Ao base 1981
Ao fin 2017 36

P2017 1381656.71 habitantes

Ao t
Ao base 1981
Ao fin 2037 56

P2030 1554356 habitantes

 Mtodo Exponencial
1=(ln (+1)ln ())/
=^(()) ((+1)())

Calcular Poblacin
2017
2037
r promedio
Ao Poblacin k
1940 548371 0.0107
1961 686260 0.0112
1972 776173 0.0152
1981 890258 0.0161
1993 1079849 0.0115
2007 1268441
r promedio 0.0129

Poblacin futura
Ao Poblacin
Ao base 2007 1268441
Ao fin 2017 1443663.06

P2017 1443663.06 habitantes

Ao Poblacin
Ao base 2007 1268441
Ao fin 2037 1870066.25

P2030 1870066.25375 habitantes

 Mtodo Mtodo Mtodo Mtodo de Mtodo
aritmtico o inters Geomtrico la Parbola Exponencial
Post Censal simple

Ao Poblacin Poblacin Poblacin Poblacin Poblacin

1940 548371 548371 548371 548371 548371
1961 686260 686260 686260 686260 686260
1972 776173 776173 776173 776173 776173
1981 890258 890258 890258 890258 890258
2000000
1993 1079849 1079849 1079849 1079849 1079849
2007 1268441 1268441 1268441 1268441 1800000
1268441
2017 1381813.54 1447133.51 1443699.79 1381656.71 1443663.06
2037 1608558.62 1804518.52 1870208.96 1600000
1554356 1870066.25
1400000
686260
548371
1200000 686260 7
548371
686260 776173
1000000
548371 890
686260 776173
800000
548371 890258
686260 776173
600000
548371
400000

200000

0
 GRAFICO

1870066.25375453

1870208.96127451
1443663.06426864
1268441 1554356
1804518.51629739
1381656.71428571
10798491268441
1443699.786022
890258 1079849
686260 776173 1268441
1447133.50543246
548371 890258 1608558.62121212
776173 1079849
686260 1268441
548371 890258
776173 1079849 1381813.54040404
686260 1268441
548371 890258
686260 776173 1079849
890258
260 776173
Mtodo Exponenci al

Mtodo de la Parbol a

Mtodo Geomtri co

Mtodo i nters s i mpl e

Mtodo a ri tmtico o Post Cens a l

66.25375453

51

do Exponenci al

e la Parbol a

tri co

le

Cens a l