Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

North Korea: Getting Trump to
Act Out of Character
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 5, 2017

We seek your assessment about the latest North Korean nuclear test. Its hydrogen
bomb test on Sunday raised fears that Pyongyang is getting close to constructing a
nuclear-tipped missile that could reach the United States. The weapon was the most
powerful North Korea has tested to date.
The test also immediately raised new questions about U.S. Korea strategy and
President Donald Trumps likely response.
We request your response to the following questions:
Q1 In your assessment, what does it mean for North Korea to test a nuclear bomb
on September 3?
ANSWER: This is North Koreas sixth nuclear test. North Koreas test of a hydrogen
bomb is a demonstration that it is continuing to develop advanced nuclear technology
at a faster pace than the U.S. intelligence community estimated. The test of a
hydrogen bomb also demonstrates that North Korea is a de facto nuclear state outside
the international nuclear control regime.
Q2 Why did North Korea test a nuclear bomb at this time?
ANSWER: North Korea says it is responding to joint military exercises carried out by
South Korea and the United States. North Korea is most likely reacting to threats by
President Donald Trump to unleash fire and fury at North Korea if it threatens the
United States, its possessions such as Guam, or its allies.
North Korea uses nuclear brinkmanship to deter the United States from attacking it
and to demonstrate the futility of a military threats. In other words, if the U.S. attacks
North Korea first, North Korea will respond with a devastating attack on South Korea
and/or Japan where U.S. forces are stationed.
Q3 - How North Korea nuclear test put pressure on U.S., its allies (South Korea, Japan)
and China?
ANSWER: North Koreas nuclear posture also aims to play on divisions among the
United States and its allies, South Korea and Japan, and, as well, divisions between the
United States and China. At the moment, North Korea does not have the capacity to
launch an intercontinental ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead and strike the
continental United States. If a war broke out North Korea could inflict serious damage
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and mass casualties on South Korea and to a lesser extent Japan. If the U.S. launches
a pre-emptive attack on North Korea it will be South Korea that suffers the most.
North Koreas actions are also designed to raise doubts in Seoul and Tokyo that the
United States is willing to go to war to defend these countries and, at the same time,
to stoke fears of war in these countries.
North Korea seeks to exploit differences between China and the United States. China
does not want the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) ballistic missile
system in South Korea because it reduces the value of Chinas nuclear strike capability.
China does not want the North Korean regime to collapse because this would generate
hundreds of thousands of Korean refugees. Nor does China want to see Korea united
and under U.S. influence. The U.S. will press China to rigidly enforce sanctions and to
cut off trade. China will resist this.
Q4 - International reaction to North Koreas nuclear test has not been uniform. While
the U.S. has talked up a military response, other world powers have emphasised
different approaches. In your assessment, how should Trump administration respond?
ANSWER: China and Russia have reached a common understanding on how the Korean
crisis should be resolved. They urge both sides North Korea and South Korea/United
States to stand down from military posturing. How should the Trump Administration
respond? The answer to this question partly lies with getting Donald Trump to act out
of character and stop tweeting threats and using bellicose language. His actions only
encourage Kim Jong-un to engage in brinkmanship to demonstrate that Trump is a
paper tiger.
The Trump Administration should continue to pursue diplomacy through the UN
Security Council. The Trump Administration should give current sanctions time to
become effective. And the Trump Administration should step up pressure on China to
use its economic leverage on North Korea. In other words, Trump should give
sanctions a chance. At the same time, the Trump Administration should continue to
signal its resolve to respond to any North Korean missile attack on South Korea, Japan
and Guam.
Q5 In your assessment, what is the knot in the current Korean crisis? Who could be
a possible mediator in this crisis?
ANSWER: The knot in the current Korean crisis is that the Korean War (1950-53) ended
in an armistice but not a peace settlement. North Korea fears that its national security
is under threat from U.S. military forces in South Korea and Japan. Therefore, in order
to protect itself North Korea has developed nuclear weapons and is now developing
the means to deliver these weapons. South Korea and the United States believe that
North Korea poses a threat to their security.
North Korea has few friends it can trust and so it is unlikely to accept a third-party
mediator. What is needed is a broker, a country that can act behind the scenes to bring
North Korea and South Korea to the negotiating table and/or sponsor secret talks
between North Korea and the United States.
Q6 What happens next? Is there a peaceful way out of the North Korea crisis?
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ANSWER: North Korea is poised to launch more ballistic missiles. This raises the stakes
for Donald Trump who declared that the time for talk was over. We are entering a
period of brinkmanship, uncertainty and the real prospect of armed conflict.
As U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis observed, there are always diplomatic
options. The best that can be hoped for in the coming months is a stand-off.
Prospects for a peaceful settlement could be addressed by reconvening of the Six
Party talks and negotiations among all the parties on a grand bargain in which the
security interests of all parties are respected and catered for. Among the issues to be
resolved are the status of North Koreas nuclear weapons. Should there be a freeze
and international inspection? Should the Korean peninsula be denuclearized? What
would be the trade off a phased withdrawal of U.S. military forces and a moratorium
on joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises? What forms of economic assistance
should be given to North Korea?

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, North Korea: Getting Trump to Act Out of
Character, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 5, 2017. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.